Japan’s Silk Road Diplomacy Paving the Road Ahead Christopher Len Uyama Tomohiko Hirose Tetsuya Editors Japan’s Silk Road Diplomacy Paving the Road Ahead Christopher Len Uyama Tomohiko Hirose Tetsuya Editors © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program – A Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center Johns Hopkins University-SAIS, 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Institute for Security and Development Policy, V. Finnbodav. 2, Stockholm-Nacka 13130, Sweden www.silkroadstudies.org "Japan’s Silk Road Diplomacy: Paving the Road Ahead" is a Monograph published by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and the Silk Road Studies Program. Monographs provide comprehensive analyses of key issues presented by leading experts. The Joint Center is a transatlantic independent and non-profit research and policy center. It has offices in Washington and Stockholm and is affiliated with the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University and the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy. It is the first institution of its kind in Europe and North America, and is firmly established as a leading research and policy center, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders, and journalists. The Joint Center is at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security, and development in the region. Through its applied research, publications, research cooperation, public lectures, and seminars, it functions as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion regarding the region. This publication is kindly made possible by support from the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs. The opinions and conclusions expressed are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and the Silk Road Studies Program or its sponsors. © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, 2008 ISBN: 978-91-85937-46-2 Printed in Singapore Cover photo credits: Photo of children in classroom is courtesy of Noriko Gakkyu, Uzbekistan; Russian-made combine harvesters for Kyrgyzstan and a road construction project in Tajikistan are both financed by Japanese grant aid. Photos courtesy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan. Distributed in North America by: The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel. +1-202-663-7723; Fax. +1-202-663-7785 E-mail: [email protected] Distributed in Europe by: The Silk Road Studies Program Institute for Security and Development Policy Västra Finnbodavägen 2, 131 30 Stockholm-Nacka, Sweden Email: [email protected] Editorial correspondence should be addressed to Svante E. Cornell, Research and Publications Director, at either of the addresses above. (preferably by email) Table of Contents Key Abbreviations ......................................................................................................... 5 Preface ............................................................................................................................. 7 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................... 11 Part I: Japan’s New Role in Central Asia .................................................................. 13 1. What is Japan up to in Central Asia? ....................................................................... 15 Kawato Akio 2. Understanding Japan’s Central Asian Engagement .............................................. 31 Christopher Len 3. Consolidating “Value-Oriented Diplomacy” towards Eurasia? The “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity” and Beyond ........................................................................ 47 Yuasa Takeshi Part II: Japan-Central Asian Relations in the Global and Regional Contexts .... 67 4. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Beyond a Miscalculation on Power Games .............................................................................................................................. 69 Iwashita Akihiro 5. Kyrgyztan: Japan’s Prime Partner in Central Asia? ............................................. 87 Erica Marat 6. Japan’s Diplomacy towards Central Asia in the Context of Japan’s Asian Diplomacy and Japan-U.S. Relations ......................................................................... 101 Uyama Tomohiko 7. Models of Cooperation in Central Asia and Japan’s Central Asian Engagements: Factors, Determinants and Trends ................................................... 121 Timur Dadabaev Part III: Economic Aspects of Japan-Central Asian Relations ............................. 141 8. Economic Cooperation and Conflict Management in Central Asia: What Role for Northeast Asian Actors? ....................................................................................... 143 Niklas Swanström 9. Japan’s Energy Strategy towards West and Central Asia under Contemporary Globalization ................................................................................................................. 157 Shimao Kuniko Part IV: Closing Chapter ........................................................................................... 175 10. Japan’s Diplomacy in Central Asia: The Perspective of a Working-Level Policy Maker .................................................................................................................. 177 Hirose Tetsuya Key Abbreviations ADB Asian Development Bank AFP Arc of Freedom and Prosperity AOC Arabian Oil Company ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BTC Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan CACO Central Asian Cooperation Organization CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CNPC China National Petroleum Corporation DPJ Democratic Party of Japan EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EU European Union GCC Gulf Cooperation Council GUAM Group made up of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova GUUAM Group made up of Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova IMU Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan ISAF International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan JBIC Japan Bank for International Cooperation JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency JNOC Japan National Oil Corporation JOGMEC Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation KRJC Kyrgyz Republic-Japan Center LDP Liberal Democratic Party METI Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan MITI Ministry of International Trade and Industry of Japan MOF Ministry of Finance of Japan MOFA Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan MSDF Maritime Self-Defense Force NIS Newly Independent States NAC North Atlantic Council NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization ODA Official Development Assistance SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SDF Self-Defense Forces Preface This volume started with a simple idea – to reflect on Japan’s role in Central Asia since the Central Asian republics gained independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Japan has been involved in Central Asia since the early 1990s but its role has largely been overshadowed by the activities of other more prominent external actors that operate in the region, the key ones being Russia, China and the United States. This is the product of a collaborative effort between the Central Asia- Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program (U.S./Sweden), the Slavic Research Center at Hokkaido University (Japan) and the Islamic Area Studies, University of Tokyo (Japan) in the form of a one-day workshop that took place in Tokyo on September 22, 2007. The aim of the workshop had been to discuss and better understand the critical role that Japan plays in Central Asia, as well as to examine how Japan should proceed with its future engagement. The year 2007 is a significant date because it marked the tenth anniversary of the launch of Japan’s Eurasian Diplomacy. Back in July 1997, the Japanese Prime Minister, Hashimoto Ryutaro, introduced the concept of Eurasian Diplomacy as a pillar of Japan’s foreign policy which would encompass Russia, China as well as the Newly Independent States in the Central Asia- Caucasus region. The idea is that Japan should play an active and leading role to help the countries foster political and economic stability. While Japan’s engagement with Russia and China have been well documented over the past decade, Japan’s contribution to the Central Asia-Caucasus region is less known, and in fact, poorly understood, especially outside Japan. This publication concentrates mostly on Japan’s engagement with Central Asia and we hope that it would shed some light on this subject matter. There have been great changes in the Central Asia region and its surrounding area since 1997: (1) China and Russia have made great strides into Central 8 Japan’s Silk Road Diplomacy: Paving the Road Ahead Asia with the formation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2001; (2) separately, Russia, which regards Central Asia as its own backyard, is attempting to re-assert itself in the region; (3) China is also steadfastly increasing its security, political and economic links with the region on a bilateral basis; (4) meanwhile, Afghanistan is currently undergoing post- conflict rehabilitation and reconstruction. It is still a weak state facing a host of threats and the area bordering Pakistan remains particularly volatile. The stability of Central Asia is closely tied to the situation in Afghanistan; (5) Japan