CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report Issue 32 - February 2018
Is there an optimum squad age to win in football?
Drs Raffaele Poli, Loïc Ravenel and Roger Besson
1. Introduction
The demographic analysis of squads is a key research area of the CIES Football Observatory. The 32nd edition of the Monthly Report analy- ses the age structure of teams in 31 top division European leagues. This allows us to show dis- crepancies on an international level, while also investigating the links between the age struc- ture of teams and success. Figure 1: leagues and players surveyed (2009- Leagues and clubs greatly differentiate them- 2017) selves with regard to the age of their squad members. While the most competitive teams un esl a 8 8 and championships are not the youngest ones, E F rst v s on 1 10 they are also generally not those with the most R re er ea ue 102 seasoned players. The gaps observed also re- F rst ea ue 13 flect the existence of distinct cultures and CRO 1 11 0 strategies. C 1 v s on 1 1 The study stretches over a period of nine years C E C e h a 12 1 between 2009 and 2017. In order to be included E Superl a 100 in the analysis, a footballer had to be present E re er ea ue 1 3 on the 1st of October in the first team squad of ES a 1 21 the clubs surveyed. Moreover, he should have FI e ausl a 1080 already played in domestic league games dur- ing the season of reference, or, if this was not FR ue 1 1 8 the case, to have taken part in adult champi- ER un esl a 1 8 onship matches during each of the two previ- RE Super ea ue 1 ous seasons. The second and third goalkeepers I 131 were considered in all cases. ISR at ha l 11 I Ser e 1 2 E Ere v s e 1 0 OR El teser en 1333 O E stra lasa 1 2 OR r e ra a 1 1 ROM a I 1 8 R S re er ea ue 1 2 SCO re ersh p 11 SR Super a 1 S I Super ea ue 0 S Super a 113 S 1 S 101 S E llsvens an 132 R S per 1 3 R re er ea ue 1223
1 Monthly Report 32 - Is there an optimum squad age to win in football?
2. Age gaps Figure 2: average age of squad members, by league (2009-2017) The age of teams across Europe vary widely CRO 2 23 according to league. The Cypriot top division S 2 3 is the competition having regrouped the most E 2 1 seasoned players between 2009 and 2017: 27.5 SR 2 3 years on average. Italian Serie A teams also S 2 have ageing squads (27.1 years). This is about FI 2 0 three years more than in Croatia and Slovenia. E 2 31 The average age of players for all of the 31 top 2 32 divisions and nine years analysed is 25.9 years. OR 2 3 Considerable differences in the average age S I 2 3 of squad members also exist between teams. E 2 Figure 3 lists the clubs with the oldest squads SCO 2 since 2009 in the 31 top division leagues sur- ISR 2 veyed. The record high was measured for Chie- R 2 82 vo in 2015: 30.6 years. Two other teams had ER 2 8 a squad of players on average over 30 years S E 2 8 old: the Cypriot sides AEK Larnaca (2016) and OR 2 8 APOEL FC (2012). Eight clubs out of the ten 2 0 oldest teams are located in the Mediterranean FR 2 1 area (Italy, Cyprus, Turkey and Greece). This is a 2 first indication of regional peculiarities. R 2 0 C E 2 12 At the opposite end of the spectrum, no team ROM 2 28 since 2009 has had a squad as young as FK Rad O 2 38 Belgrade in 2013: 21.0 years on average. None of ES 2 0 the ten youngest teams are located in the most R S 2 2 competitive European leagues. Six of them are RE 2 2 located in Serbia, Croatia and Finland. The very E 2 young squads of some of the clubs in the top R 2 ten rankings primarily reflect financial troubles. I 2 13 This was notably the case for Alki Larnaca and C 2 8 Heart of Midlothian in 2013.
Figure 3: oldest squads, 31 top division Figure 4: youngest squads, 31 top division European leagues (2009-2017) European leagues (2009-2017)
Ch evo erona I 201 30 8 F Ra SR 2013 21 01 E arna a C 201 30 l arna a FC C 2013 21 18 OE FC C 2012 30 38 Stal a ans e R 201 21 2 M lan C I 2011 2 8 eart o M loth an SCO 2013 21 33 rsenal ula R S 201 2 -3 antaa FI 201 21 2 SS a o I 2011 2 0 o o ot va a reb CRO 2012 21 3 İstanbul Başakşehir (TUR) 201 2 8 FC on a FI 201 21 Internazionale Milano (ITA) 2010 2 0 S renč n S 201 21 Szolnok MÁV (HUN) 2010 2 a u Spl t CRO 2013 21 80 AOK Kerkyra (GRE) 2011 2 2 OF eo ra SR 201 21 80
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The average age of players also vary greatly Figure 5: average age per position, 31 top according to position. The general rule is that division European leagues (2009-2017) goalkeepers are older than defenders, defend- ers are older than midfielders and midfielders are older than forwards. In the 31 leagues sur- veyed, goalkeepers were almost 1.5 years older 2 2 3 than forwards. This is mainly due to the differ- 2 0 ent physical attributes required by this position, 2 28 as well as the greater importance of experience for goalkeepers. This is also true for defenders with respect to midfielders and forwards. Another general rule is that the most competi- oal eepers e en ers Midfielders For ar s tive leagues generally bring together more sea- soned players than the least competitive cham- pionships. The statistically significant negative correlation between age and UEFA ranking con- Figure 6: correlation between average age and firms this observation. However, there are many average UEFA ranking per league (2009-2017) residuals. Dutch and Croatian clubs, for exam- ple, clearly over-perform in European Cups with respect to the average age of their squad mem- bers. Conversely, Cypriot teams do not achieve the results that one would expect with regard to the experience level of their players. A correlation also exists between the sport- ing level of clubs and the average age of their squads. The sporting level is calculated using the CIES Football Observatory club coefficient. This exclusive classification method takes into account the performance of national associa- tion representatives in European club compe- titions, the division of the employer club in the Figure 7: average age and sporting level as per domestic league and results achieved. CIES Football Observatory club coefficient (2009-2017) Generally, clubs that are more competitive have older squads. This rule applies perfectly to each of the four lowest club level categories presented in figure 7. However, no significant 2 0 2 3 2 8 2 12 difference was observed for clubs in the three 2 8 top categories. This finding reveals that after 2 a certain threshold of sporting and economic power, the age structure of clubs tends to con- verge. Our analysis suggests that the optimal average age of squad members is between 26 and 27 years. 0 00-0 2 0 2 -0 0 0 0-0 0 -1 00 1 00-1 2 1 2 -2 00
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3. Age for champions Figure 8: average age of champions, by league (2009-2017) None of the ten youngest champions during the E 2 1 period analysed belong to the most competitive S 2 32 European leagues. The Slovakian side AS Trenčín CRO 2 3 tops the table ahead of two Dutch clubs: Ajax S 2 1 and PSV Eindhoven. The latter examples show E 2 8 that it is possible to win with very young squads S E 2 21 even in countries ranked in the top ten of the OR 2 22 UEFA table. However, this is generally not the SCO 2 23 case at the very top of the European football SR 2 2 pyramid. The youngest big-5 league champion 2 31 during the period surveyed was Borussia Dort- OR 2 mund in 2011/12 (24.7 years). S I 2 The top ten list of the oldest clubs crowned E 2 3 champions from 2009 to 2017 shows the spec- ROM 2 8 ificity of the Italian case. Three Serie A teams R 2 8 are among the four champions with the most R 2 0 seasoned squads. Another team from a coun- O 2 18 try with a favourable disposition towards expe- ISR 2 23 rienced players tops the table: APOEL Nicosia ES 2 2 from Cyprus. They are also the only champions FI 2 28 whose squad members were on average over 2 3 30 years old on the 1st October of the season FR 2 3 when they won the league. ER 2 2 0 The comparative analysis of the average age of C E 2 0 champions between leagues also reveals cul- RE 2 1 tural differences in the perception of the most R S 2 favourable age structure for a squad. At one ex- E 2 1 treme, the youngest champions are to be found R 2 1 in the Netherlands (24.2 years), where teams I 28 1 pay great attention to the training and devel- C 28 81 opment of young talents. At the other extreme, Cypriot champion teams had the oldest squads over the period surveyed (28.8 years).
Figure 9: youngest champions, 31 top division Figure 10: oldest champions, 31 top division European leagues (2009-2017) European leagues (2009-2017)
AS Trenčín (SVK) 201 21 OE FC C 2012 30 38 AFC Ajax (NED) 2012 22 M lan C I 2010 2 20 PSV Eindhoven (NED) 201 22 8 Interna onale M lano I 200 28 2 Viitorul Constanța (ROM) 201 23 01 uventus FC I 2013 28 8 NK Maribor (SVN) 2010 23 02 R Sal bur 200 28 3 Malmö FF (SWE) 2013 23 20 Viktoria Plzeň (CZE) 201 28 30 RB Salzburg (AUT) 201 23 23 Zenit St Petersburg (RUS) 2011 28 28 FC Nordsjælland (DEN) 2011 23 Fenerbah e S R 2013 28 28 BATE Borisov (BLR) 200 23 8 apoel e er Sheva ISR 201 28 1 Celtic FC (SCO) 2012 2 02 ayern M n hen ER 201 2 8
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4. Conclusion
Squad assembly is an art that must be careful- ly mastered to be successful. Evidence shows that a good balance is necessary to perform durably at the highest level. A balanced age structure permits young footballers to develop alongside more experienced players and pro- gressively replace them as pillars of the team. This is also a necessary prerequisite to main- tain a satisfactory level of stability and perfor- mance over the long term. While no single truth exists with regard to the relationship between age structure and suc- cess, the median age of champions in the five major European leagues between 2009 and 2017 is a good indicator of a possible bench- mark. This figure is 26.5 years old. In accord- ance with previous findings, we can state that in order to achieve sustainable success, it is important for clubs to have as many players who did not celebrate their 27th birthday than footballers over this age threshold.
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