Thursday, June 14, 2001 ! Volume 7, Number 39 Page 1 of 9 Most Influential List The revisited halfway Howey !"#$%&'()*"+,,-"./0 *(12*3"4)*% By BRIAN A. HOWEY in A little less than six months ago, The Howey Political Political Report issued its third annual “50 Most Influential List” in politics. We thought it would be worth reviewing our list as we head into the halfway point of the year to see who is playing Report above par, who has been a disappointment, with each para- graph ending with an indicator (Up, Par, Down, Out) as to The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink where this particular person may end up on the 2002 list. Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the We’ll conclude this feature with a list of up-and-comers -- political process in Indiana. people who might not have made our cut last January, but Brian A. Howey, publisher who may be on the upswing. Generally speaking, this being a non-election year, the Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington writer events and incidents of 2001 have been fascinating. Jack E. Howey, editor 1. Gov. Frank O’Bannon: This is what we wrote in The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 January: “The governor is the indispensible man in Hoosier PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-466-0993 politics this year and he alone possesses the most political Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 Mobile: 317-506-0883 capital. He holds the keys to reapportionment -- where he [email protected] can handpick the deciding fifth vote on the commission to www.howeypolitics.com break any legislative deadlock. He also will be important on Washington office: 202-775-3242; reassessment, the biennial budget, and education. O’Bannon Business Office: 317-254-0535. is coming off what can be regarded as a mandate by defeat- ing David McIntosh by 15 percent in November. The critical Subscriptions: $250 annually via e-mail or question is whether O’Bannon will use that mandate to push fax; $450 annually including the HPR Daily through his legislative priorities this year.” Unfortunately, Wire. Call 317-254-1533 or 254-0535. the governor has been the biggest disappointment this year © 2001, The Howey Political Report. All rights (unless you’re Stephen Goldsmith). And that is most fre- reserved. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, faxing or quently (and vociferously) expressed by Democrats who felt reproducing in any form, in whole or in part, is a viola- O’Bannon could have used his mandate and capital to fur- tion of federal law and is strictly prohibited without consent of the publisher. ther extend Democratic gubernatorial rule. That simply has- Continued on page 2

“I always wanted to go to law school and not Ticker: Hillary coming to Indy p. 2 be a lawyer. Now I want to go to Congress Horse Race: McIntosh memo assesses and not be a politician....’’ Kernan, GOP field; Weatherwax ponders 2nd CD run; Hager joins - , 2nd CD Republican candidate, SofS race; Stilwell out in Bloody to the Logansport Pharos-Tribune 8th; Star discovers Young p. 8 Thursday, June 14, 2001 Page 2 of 9

DLC COMING TO INDY: The DLC's 5th Annual National Conversation comes to the Westin Hotel in Indianapolis July 15-17, featuring U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, Gov. Frank O’Bannon, Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Town- send. This year, the theme will be "Putting Our Values to Work."

JOYCE CALLS HIS ASCEN- SION A NATURAL TRANSI- TION: New gubernatorial chief of staff Tim Joyce called Tuesday’s gubernato- n’t happened, and LG Joe Kernan finds Bush calls him -- has been brilliant. He rial staff changes a “natural himself on shakier ground heading into specifically earned Bush’s accolades when transition” following a long 2004 than he could have. This week’s he signed the historic $1.3 trillion tax cut, legislative session. shakeup with Tim Joyce replacing Jim which will be the cornerstone of Bush’s “Obviously you have an Maguire could help. What the cautious legacy and crux of his 2004 re-election election and transitions are men around the governor need to start bid. He has pushed for a reduction in fed- expected and certainly if thinking about is establishing his legacy eral spending increases and has been in you review history, there’s and place in history. It’s a good one when the vangard to end unfunded mandates to some transitioning that it comes to the fledgling community col- the states. Should he return to our state, goes on after every long session,” Joyce told HPR. lege system and a better shake for injured he could write his own ticket. Status: Up. “There could likely be some workers. But if we had to write that histo- 3. U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh: This is additional changes.” Joyce ry today, O’Bannon’s tenure would be what we wrote in January: “This was our acknowledged the strained measured with words such as “medioc- first dilemma. Do we put Bayh ahead of relationships between rity,” “cautious,” “failure to communicate Lugar? We chose Bayh because President- O’Bannon and the legisla- with legislators in his own party,” and, of Elect George W. Bush must reach out to ture. Asked about a wide- course, the obligatory “he’s a nice guy.” centrist coalitions in both parties on most- spread perception of a lack The veto of the legislative pay raise was ly domestic issues.” Bayh’s status as a of communication, Joyce one of the most boneheaded moves in leading centrist deal-striker in the Senate said, “Communications are critical and whether your recent political history because it probably won’t really change with the shift in partnership is internal or has compromised any chance to restruc- power. The key number is not 51, but 60, external or with another ture the tax code, which should have been and as Bush moderates as his term pro- branch of government, if one of his most enduring legacies (and gresses, he will need to reach out to cen- you’re going to be success- one he campaigned on in 1996). It’s trists such as Bayh. Bayh is viewed as a ful you’ve got to talk to peo- painful to write this, but when we think of legitimate 2004 presidential contender ple. If either party misses an Frank O’Bannon, we think of Cher in the (though he had only 1 percent in a recent opportunity to share infor- movie “Moonstruck,” who glares at the poll, tied with Al Sharpton). But it’s way mation, you’re going to wallowing Nicolas Cage character and too early to get a real read on that. Bayh have more difficulty. We’ll be taking measure of all our bellows, “Snap out of it!” Status: Down. has been a masterful political strategist 2. OMB Director Mitch Daniels: and he’ll have until late 2002 or early Continued on page 3 Daniels -- or “The Blade” as President 2003 to assess the Bush presidency and Page 3 of 9 Thursday, June 14, 2001 his own chances. One key decision will be days. Some well positioned Democrats are on whether to run for both re-election and suggesting that Gregg is not a cinch for the presidency. We suspect he’ll do both, the LG nomination in 2004, though they with a drop-dead date on re-election com- acknowledge he will be a powerful force. ing about Feb. 20, 2004, when he’ll have Gregg comes from Southern Indiana river to decide whether to remain on the country and he’s got some tricky currents Indiana ballot. But that will come after ahead. Status: Par. relationships, if necessary, Iowa and New Hampshire, when he’ll 7. Senate President Pro Tempore and enhance them.” Joyce have a real good read on his presidential Robert Garton: Here’s the Big Question said a replacement for leg- stock. On the home front, Bayh is triangu- for Bob: Why didn’t you call HB 1480 -- islative liaison Bob Kovatch lating and is beginning to be portrayed as the budget trailer bill -- down for a vote has yet to be determined. a split personality -- conservative in before the budget bill? Oops! The second “Bob has been planning his Indiana and moderate in Washington -- big question is will Garton run for re-elec- departure for some time.” Many legislators from both but that does not pose any significant tion in 2002? This is a guy who likes his parties -- but particularly problems for him in the near term. power, isn’t using it as well as he once Democrats -- were critical of Overall, a good start to a Senate career. did, and doesn’t have the Washingtonian Kovatch and the flow of Status: Up. instincts to gracefully give it up. His rants information during the last 4. U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar: He’s over the loss of Technical Day have several legislative sessions. hurt most by the Senate shift, losing the caused some smirking. Status: Par. An example in 2001 was the Agriculture Committee chair on the eve of 8. U.S. Rep. : He will cigarette tax proposal, the farm bill mark-up. On Foreign be going out with a bang, with his sub- which was immediately shot Relations, Lugar’s influence will increase, stantive involvement in taxes, education, down by House Democrats. since he has a better relationship with campaign finance, and trade. He has During the 2000 session, the governor announced a Chairman Joe Biden than he did with Sen. become one of President Bush’s favorite revenue shortfall and Jesse Helms. Lugar has remained House Democrats. Despite his retirement, shocked legislators by say- philosphical, saying party power comes don’t expect Roemer to disappear. He ing he would not entertain and goes, but good ideas will always rule. would be at the top of most lists if Bayh any spending increases. And Lugar is still a font of good ideas, decides to vacate his seat. Status: Up. Asked to put that into con- with his biofuels initiative -- embraced by 9. Lee Hamilton: He has turned text, Joyce said, “We have a President Bush -- a classic example. The the Woodrow Wilson Center into a grow- significant issue with the 2002 elections will be critical to how the ing policy force. Indiana’s elder statesman finances that kind of sur- twilight of his career shapes up, though continues to get more TV time than prised a number of people. we see him as almost surely seeking almost anyone other than Daniels and When you talk about the kind of structural deficit we another term in ‘06. Status: Up. Bayh, weighing in with well-seasoned find ourselves in now and 5. State Rep. Edmund Mahern: commentary. Status: Par. some of the revenues that He lived up to our lofty projection and 10. State Rep. B. Patrick Bauer: fell off over the last 10 to 12 created the House and Congressional When Bauer rebuked O’Bannon and months, the reality of it maps, though there’s been a lot of private Kernan for not signing the budget, that takes its time getting to grumbling on both sides of the aisle, but lent a fascinating glimpse into intra- people, particularly when no lawsuits. Mahern now recedes. Status: Democratic relationships, and it’s not a you have reserves in place Out. pretty picture. At a time when Indiana and when you spend them 6. Speaker John Gregg: We’re Dems could be consolidating power well down, you don’t have a sav- hearing that the Speaker is on strained into the next generation, we find a lot of ings account any more.” Some of this is due to con- terms with the governor and his staff. the key players on different pages and not ditions fiscally. Joyce had We’re also hearing that a lot of Democrats communicating. Bauer is the one guy who been deputy chief of staff in Indianapolis really, really wished he had the guts to say it publicly. Once since November 1999. would have run for Congress, not only to Gregg gives up the Speaker’s gavel, we help the DCCC, but because intra- see Bauer’s ascension as a long-shot, (he’s INDIANA DST EFFORT Democratic relations are ... how should PO’d too many people). Status: Par. STALLING IN CONGRESS: we say this? ... getting complicated these 11. U.S. Rep. : The continued on page 4 Thursday, June 14, 2001 Page 4 of 9

five-term congressman went from being 16. Supt. Suellen Reed: The super- an edgy GOP rising star to a gutter brawl intendent wasn’t quite as conspicuous as with freshman Rep. Brian Kerns. Party we thought she’d be during the last leg- leaders begged him to run in the new, islative session. With efforts such as the open 2nd CD, but the 4th is home, and Phoenix Group ready to pummel Indiana’s Attempts to get U.S. Rep. Buyer has waged the early battles as only education status, and more blame headed Steve Buyer to attach he knows how -- aggressively and emo- her way for aiding and abetting the Indiana to an emergency tionally. He’d be better served to take it McIntosh defeat, her influence in the GOP energy-saving bill for down a notch and go back to his boots- is waning: Status: Down. Western states to observe over-the-shoulder roots that served him 17. Mayor Bart Peterson: Some Daylight Saving Time well in ‘92.We gave him the early edge in see Peterson as the true post-Bayh rising appears to have stalled. The that primary showdown due to his name star. Indianapolis Republicans can’t even emergency bill was set to ID and Commerce Committee status. But find a decent candidate to run against him be heard by Buyer’s House with Sen. Mike Young’s entry into the in 2003. He has made strides in the sewer Commerce Committee. race, anything could happen. Status: Par. issue, compromising with council Hoosier high-tech advo- cates led by Escient CEO 12. State Sen. Larry Borst: Borst Republicans. Crime seems to be remain- Scott Jones -- who were always delivers. Now he’s in a position to ing steady, though there has been little stung by a defeat in the make O’Bannon-Kernan’s reassessment comprehensive reporting on what his 200 Indiana House last winter -- era hellish. Status: Up. new cops are actually doing. His efforts to tried to get Buyer to include 13. Lt. Gov. Joe Kernan: If get the legislature to help pay for police Indiana in the bill that would Kernan can keep the 2004 election based and fire pensions give him three years of amend 1972 legislation pro- on patriotism and personality, he’ll be the breathing room -- just enough time for re- posed by then U.S. Sen. next governor. If it turns into a pocket- election. The biggest minus was his push- Birch Bayh. Buyer said he book election after a reassessment fiasco, ing the narcotic roadblock case to the U.S. would consider the strategy he’s in big trouble (if, IF, the GOP comes Supreme Court, which ruled against the if the rest of the Indiana Congressional delegation up with a decent candidate who per- city and may have saved whatever is left signed off. Buyer spokes- forms). What’s tough in reading the tea of the 4th Amendment. Status: Up. man Mike Copher told HPR, leaves is whether Kernan has a role in the 18. U.S. Rep. : In “Conversations have strange shots that O’Bannon keeps shoot- January, we wrote: “With McIntosh out of slowed down. Steve told ing. If he does, then we’re over-estimating the delegation, Souder is Indiana's most them to go back and get the his political abilities; if he doesn’t, then he important House conservative. A vocal Indiana delegation on board will not only be waging war against a member of the House Conservative Action with this. Most of the Republican, but possibly the legacy of his Team, Souder will try to ensure that Members were supportive -- own boss. Status: Up. Bush's compassionate conservatism does- almost all of them were -- 14. Budget Director Betty n't become squishy.” Souder and Mike but some of them had con- cerns with state’s rights Cockrum: Our sources tell us that Pence have been part of the forces pulling issues.” Buyer and his staff Cockrum understands the dangers ahead the Bush presidency to the right, with the also had conversations with for Democratic rule and securing education bill sticking in his craw. His Gov. Frank O’Bannon, Lt. O’Bannon’s legacy, but that she is repeat- reshaped district gives him one of the Gov. Joe Kernan, House edly overruled by the cautious men safest GOP havens. Status: Up. Speaker John Gregg and around the governor. The shakeup this 19. Marty Morris: “Sen. Lugar’s Senate President Pro week won’t clear a path for Cockrum to chief of staff is the political wizard behind Tempore Bob Garton, some have greater influence. Status: Down. the curtain.” That’s what we said in of whom would like to see 15. Chairman Robin Winston: A January, and ditto here. Status: Up. DST punted from the legis- recent trip to the Democratic offices at 20. Joe Andrew: He is gradually lature to Congress. Copher said that Columbus area One North Capitol revealed young staffers fading from the national limelight while industries that make up -- everywhere -- working their butts off in joining a white shoe Wall Street law firm Garton’s constituency sup- a non-election year. Winston’s party build- and buying an Indiana home. We thought ported the move and added ing may save the Democrats from tepid we might see him doing some of the talk that Buyer and Garton had leadership at the top. Status: Up. show gigs, but there’s something to the continued on page 5 Page 5 of 9 Thursday, June 14, 2001 notion of ... making money to put the kids Rodman to Indiana. through college. He’ll head up the 2004 26. State Rep. Susan Crosby: DNC convention selection committee. Pushed by Democratic women activists as Hey, Joe, we’ve got a particular a potential LG candidate, her most con- Midwestern city in mind.... Status: Down. spicuous move during the legislative ses- 21. James Maguire: Like his ex- sion was to propose a gasoline tax talked. There are political boss, a real nice guy. Status: Out. increase. A potential contender for either dangers for Buyer, who is 22. Tom Sugar: As Bayh's chief of the 8th CD in 2002 or LG in 2004, locked in a brutal primary staff, Sugar has become the gatekeeper for Crosby’s career options have been caught battle with U.S. Rep. Brian Kerns and State Sen. Mike one of the hottest 2004 presidential in the ample ripples of John Gregg’s deci- Young. “Some people feel prospects. He'll be the one raising the sions, with key decisions still to be made. it’s a wedge issue,” Copher money, fielding the calls, and managing Status: Par. said. Bayh's time as the senator decides 27. U.S. Rep. : whether to run for national office or com- Carson received a good district from ROGERS, AYRES SUR- pete for an almost-certain second Senate Mahern & Co., particularly after some PRISED BY BIG UNIVERSI- term. Status: Up. GOP areas were jettisoned to the Frank- TY TUITION INCREASES: 23. David McIntosh: This is what enstein 4th. She’ll face an energetic chal- State Sen. Earline Rogers, we wrote in January: “Until somebody lenge from Brose McVey in 2002. She’s D-Gary, said she'd believed can demonstrate that Citizen McIntosh been relatively quiet legislatively so far the budget adopted by the General Assembly provided can be displaced, he’s the 2004 Repub- during the Bush area. Status: Par. enough state funding to lican gubernatorial frontrunner.” And 28. Mayor John Fernandez: The forestall big tuition hikes. "I while Republicans such as Rep. Mike Bloomington mayor has been able to con- was under the impression Pence say we shouldn’t be throwing away solidate his hold of the Democratic secre- the money we gave to our seasoned pols and McIntosh has tried to tary of state nomination, with no credible colleges and universities come to grips with his loss in a logical opposition. His fate may be determined was sufficient so as not to and public way, too many key insiders are over whether a known GOP name (Paul cause an increase," Rogers talking about McIntosh as truly damaged Helmke) is his opponent, or one of the said (Susan Erler, Times of goods. It’s way too early to write him off young guys. He can expect big GOP guns Northwest Indiana). Had in 2004 and beyond, but we really can’t to be trained on him in what will be the lawmakers known the larger hikes were looming, they talk of him in terms of a being the fron- first R vs. D organizational showdown of might have taken further trunner. He needs to articulate the lessons the century. Status: Up. steps to forestall them, learned and then try and pick up steam 29. Mike McDaniel: The GOP Rogers said. "There'd been early, lest he be out-flanked by his run- chief survived a tepid challenge and ended some talk of us needing to ning mate -- Murray Clark -- who still up with nine new state committee mem- restructure our tax system," maintains a layer of political teflon. Our bers, which should pump some new life Rogers said. Tuition increa- reading assignment for Mr. McIntosh: and vigor in what we’ve come to call the ses of the size approved by Nixon’s “Six Crises.” Status: Down. “sleeping giant.” McDaniel has some spe- the universities, "may have 24. Scott Jones: The Escient CEO cific benchmarks to reach in order to heightened our interest in was rebuked by legislative leaders -- rang- secure his future in a job he loves, but he doing so," Rogers said. The budget includes a 3.2 per- ing from Garton to Gregg -- for his audac- should have more resources. Status: Up. cent increase in state fund- ity to pick the “wrong issue” (Daylight 30. Ken Zeller: The AFL-CIO ing to colleges and universi- Saving Time) and not paying his dues. chief is labor’s big guy in Indiana. ties. Indiana University The key message for Jones is, logic does 31. Pat Kiely: Mentioned as a announced last week a 6.5 not always (or often) prevail. But his potential gubernatorial candidate, we percent increase at its sniffing out the Congressional Commerce don’t detect the necessary fire in the belly. regional campuses, less Committee DST opening reveals some He seems more content to “shadow” the than the 7.5 percent hike real political savvy. Status: Down. O’Bannon regime as an insightful (or is approved by the board of 25. Mel and Herb Simon: The go- that inciteful) critic. trustees for the Blooming- to money guys in the Indiana Democratic 32. Stephen Goldsmith: He is the ton campus. Purdue Party who resisted bringing Dennis most perplexing Hoosier in Washington. continued on page 6 Thursday, June 14, 2001 Page 6 of 9

Thought to be the brightest rising star in ish out the entire term as Secretary of in the Bush constellation, he’s stalled, Defense while Coats will be in the NATO missing out on the chance to head the loop. His loyal former Senate staff is also faith-based initiative. He may have been extremely well placed in the White House hamstrung by personality traits that people and Senate, so he’ll remain plugged in. in Indianapolis know well. Even though Status: Up. University's board of he’s not out front on the faith-based initia- 37. Mayor Scott King: The Gary trustees approved a 7.5 per- tive, he’s still involved behind the scenes mayor brought a nationally televised cent hike affecting all of the in key discussions. Part of his low profile beauty pageant to the city, has an excel- university's campuses. "I'm may be due to the health of his wife. lent working relationship with Chicago not condemning the Goldsmith could be resurrected with a Mayor Richard Daley and that’s good trustees," said State Rep. Ralph Ayres, D-Chesterton. high-profile position in the future. Status: news for the Gary-Chicago Airport. King "But I wish they would've Down. is becoming the best mayor of Gary in been able to hold the 33. U.S. Rep. : Hill has decades. Status: Up. increases until the second a better district with Columbus and 38. David Johnson: Insiders inden- year of the biennium to see Bloomington, where folks may remember tify Johnson as one of O’Bannon’s key if state funding could've his All-Star basketball career. He’s raising advisers, where caution and political ham- been increased." Joseph a bunch of money, has no real opponent handedness has ruled. While Johnson’s Bennett, spokesman for and the Blue Dogs should do pretty well “influence” may go up, the historical Purdue University president between now and November 2002. If he impact of O’Bannon’s legacy may suffer Martin Jischke, said the uni- wins next year, he may be in a position to if he steers them on the present course. versity was open about its intention to raise tuition, consolidate his power for several terms, Status: Par. and lawmakers must have barring a Democratic washout. A well- 39. Jeff Smulyan: He’s another go- been aware. funded, articulate Republican could force to guy for Democratic candidates seeking Hill out of his triangulation mode and money. Status: Par. GALLUP HAS BUSH POPU- force better definition. Status: Par. 40. Butch Morgan: The St. Joseph LARITY AT 55 PERCENT; 34. U.S. Rep. : Bush County and 2nd CD Democratic chair is CONGRESS LOWER: A finally called Burton off on the Rich par- showing his considerable political skills CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll don scandal, and that may put an end to by helping clear the decks for Jill Long of 1,011 adults, conducted his Clintonian probing. Burton’s oversight Thompson’s comeback. Status: Up. over June 8-10 (+/- 3 per- committee is still a key power center and 41. Judy O’Bannon: Indiana’s cent), shows 55 percent approve "of the way George he gets a very Republican district that most beloved First Lady gets some rare W. Bush is handling his job should keep him in Congress for another criticism over moving the governor’s as President," 35 percent three to five terms. Status: Down. mansion. Otherwise, she may be the disapprove, 10 percent had 35. U.S. Rep. : He’s steadiest personality on the First Team. no opinion; 49 percent the only Hoosier on the House Approp- Status: Par. approve "of the way the riations Committee. The Northwest Ind- 42. David Gogol: He runs Republicans in Congress iana congressman has become an effective Sagamore Associates, the premier lobby- are handling their job," 43 point man for the collapsing steel industry ing firm in DC for Hoosier interests. percent disapprove, 8 per- and President Bush came around to his Gogol has a vivid relationship with Mitch cent had no opinion; 54 per- point of view. His Jefferson-Jackson Day Daniels, potentially giving him access to cent approve "of the way the Democrats in Congress speech was a gem and should have gotten the Bush administration. Status: Par. are handling their job," 37 better media coverage. His new district 43. U.S. Rep. : The percent disapprove, and 9 puts him in the agriculture sector, but he freshman Republican shows signs of percent had no opinion. should prevail. Status: Up. entering the leadership track. His first six 36. : The former Indiana months reveal an ardent conservative who FORT WAYNE MAYOR senator is slated to be ambassador to would prefer pushing President Bush even WANTS GUN LAW: A recent Germany. We think Coats may play a big- further to the right on tax cuts and educa- rash of shootings that have ger role as the Bush administration pro- tion. Pence is quickly becoming the most taken several lives has gresses. Rumsfeld is old and may not fin- conspicuous voice of Indiana’s GOP Page 7 of 9 Thursday, June 14, 2001

Congressional delegation and the man support from Rex (Early) and fellow leg- Hoosier Democrats fear most. One reason islators, Murray will most likely be the he wasn’t lumped into Dan Burton’s dis- party favorite. His fun, laid-back, friendly trict is that Indiana Democrats would pre- personality makes him very likable in any fer to keep him in Washington and out of group -- including the electorate. He was the governor’s mansion. Status: Up. a perfect LG candidate who did every- 44. IU President Myles Brand: thing he was asked and remained loyal to He continues to reshape IU’s post-Bob the end, but he was not viewed as being prompted Fort Wayne Mayor Knight era. Status: Up. part of any of the flaws of the campaign, Graham Richard to vow to 45. U.S. Rep. : or having the ability to change them." work with state legislators to This true Survivor has dodged the John State Rep. Brian Bosma (Honor- get a version of Florida’s Gregg bullet, but still finds himself likely able Mention): He got generally good tough law passed in Indiana to face a nationally targeted challenge in marks for steering the House Republi- (Pamela Perez, Fort Wayne News-Sentinel). “The level of ‘02 as both parties battle for control of cans for the first time. The legislative gun-related crimes in this the House. Status: Par. snafus occurred with Senate Republicans. community is intolerable,” 46. Evansville Mayor Russell Ed Treacy (Honorable Mention): Richard said. There were a Lloyd Jr.: Leading political figure in The super lobbyist/ fundraiser and now dozen shootings in a span of Southwestern Indiana. Status: Par. Marion County Democratic chairman 10 days last month that left 47. Attorney General Steve becomes a key cog in the fortunes of several people dead. Carter: The new AG gets good marks Indiana Democrats as his county becomes for getting those rascal telemarketers off a D-powerhouse. LUGAR, BINGAMAN TO our phones. Surprised we’re not hearing a Sen. Teresa Lubbers: She deliv- UNVEIL MOTHER, CHILD “Steve for Governor” chant. Status: Up. ered on charter schools and should get HEALTH PLAN: U.S. Senators Jeff Bingaman (D- 48. Mary Downs: Key legislators ticket consideration for ‘04. NM) and Richard Lugar will are complaining about a lack of commu- Rep. Peggy Welch: Her legislative unveil their plan to reduce nication with the LG. Status: Par. skills came to the forefront when she the number of uninsured 49. Steve Shine: The Allen picked up the BAC bill following the children and pregnant County GOP chair’s influence will spread Tom Wyss meltdown and rammed it women in the United States into the new 6th CD. Status: Up. through after 11 years of failure. She’s this morning. The Senators 50. U.S. Rep. Brian Kerns: Due conservative, personable and offers the will discuss "Start Healthy, to the Mahern Map Co., Kerns finds him- kind of geographical balance that might Stay Healthy," legislation self in the aforementioned gutter brawl appeal to Joe Kernan in 2004 as he pon- they will introduce to signifi- with Steve Buyer. We saw him as the ders a diverse ticket. cantly reduce the number of uninsured children and preg- early underdog in the 4th CD race, but Bob Grand, Jim Kittle, Randy nant women. This bipartisan now we’re not so sure, particularly with Tobias: Creating the GOP’s financial plan is expected to cost Sen. Young’s arrival in the race, making counterweight to the labor unions with about $25 billion over the it a real wild card. Kerns has yet to have the Phoenix Group. Tobias may be guber- next decade, roughly the the gravitas of a Member, acting more natorial timber. same amount set aside for like a staff guy. Status: Up. Rep. Chet Dobis: Brought tax health care expansion in the * * * religion to the oft-divided Lake County fiscal year 2002 Budget MOVING UP: legislative delegation. Resolution. State Sen. Murray Clark State Rep. Jeff Espich: Watch for (Honorable Mention): Clark will certainly the ranking Ways and Means Republican INDIANA PASSES TOUGH, NEW AIR QUALITY STAN- make the 2001 list. While we can’t call to be a leading opposition voice on the DARDS: Indiana has adopted him the gubernatorial front-runner, he upcoming reassessment controversies. air-quality rules that will cut emerged from the 2001 legislative ses- Rep. Markt Lytle: He was the smog-forming chemicals sion in great shape and is hitting the Gregg’s go-to guy on dockside and got emitted by the state's power Lincoln Day circuit. That internal high marks. He’s becoming a go-to guy plants and industries by McIntosh memo that was leaked hit on other politically sensitive issues. He nearly a third -- about Clark’s strengths on the head: "Murray understands economic development 120,000 tons -- in the next has the drive to run for governor. With issues from being a mayor and business continued on page 8 Thursday, June 14, 2001 Page 8 of 9

owner, and is friendly to labor. Speaker Meeks, who cut the final deal with Bauer Lytle, in a post-Gregg era? on the budget. If Garton retires, Kenley is : Astutely poised to be major domo in the Senate. preparing a comeback in the new 2nd CD, Tim Joyce: The governor’s chief of with real chances of success. staff always makes the list. All Statehouse three years (Ben Z. Sen. Luke Kenley: Our sources tell eyes will be on Joyce to see if he can turn Hershberg, Louisville us it was Borst and Kenley, not Bob around the administration. " Courier-Journal). The state's utilities are expected to spend about $1.4 billion to Indiana 2002, 2004 Racing Form comply with the new nitro- gen oxide rules, raising the Governor 2004: Republican: David McIntosh, Sen. Murray Clark, Sen. Luke rates they charge cus- Kenley, Sen. Teresa Lubbers, , Eric Miller, George Witwer. Democrat: Lt. Gov. Joe tomers by an estimated 6 to Kernan. 1996 Results: O’Bannon (D) 1,075,342, Goldsmith (R) 997,505, Dillon (L) 35,261. 8 percent statewide. Other 2000 Results: O’Bannon (D) 1,230,345, McIntosh (R) 906,492, Horning (L) 38,686. 2004 businesses are expected to Forecast: The Jennifer Hallowell memo to David McIntosh proved a couple of things: They’ve spend about $28 million to both got enemies and those enemies must still comply, said Janet McCabe, believe that McIntosh can be a potent force. the department's assistant While some parts of the document have been commissioner for air quali- embellished, other parts were verified as in the ty. The new rules, McCabe original. “We did not introduce you to voters. said, "will require huge We did not tell them your story,” the document said. “The biggest criticism we made of the nitrogen oxide reductions Goldsmith and Gilroy campaigns is that they never told voters their story. They, too, had great by 2004." While the costs stories to tell. We started the campaign by promising donors, volunteers and party folks that we are enormous, McCabe said, would not make the same mistakes that those two campaigns made. We made the exact same the benefits will be as well. mistakes and then we made more." McIntosh is told, "We failed in the beginning of the cam- They should relieve asthma paign by conceding that you cannot win if it is a personality/popularity contest. We made it easi- and other smog-related er for Frank (O'Bannon) to do nothing, say nothing and be successful.” The campaign's biggest health problems for thou- blunder, however, was of its own making, the analysis concedes, citing an ill-fated Will Statom sands of Hoosiers. The reg- television spot. The document also concedes that McIntosh lost the battle over education policy, ulations were adopted in part because of conflicts with Supt. Suellen Reed. "In hindsight, taking out Reed at the con- Wednesday by the Indiana vention may have been a worthwhile fight -- we'll never know if it would have made the differ- Air Pollution Control Board. ence.” The document views State Sen. Murray Clark as McIntosh’s most likely primary oppo- "This is a very significant nent who will probably pass on the 2003 Indianapolis mayoral race “His strength over you is cut," said Tim Maloney, that he doesn't carry the baggage from our campaign that you carry," she added. As for executive director of the Kernan, it assessed, “Kernan is a much better speaker than O’Bannon ... a much better debater Hoosier Environ-mental .... a much better campaigner ... is very likable, fun, down to earth, good ol’ boy ... well-liked by Council. Vince Griffin, the business community ... very well-liked by the media ... is a good fundraiser.” It continued, director of environmental “An ecomomic downturn will likely help to convince the electorate that it’s time for a change. If and energy policy for the the economy remains strong, the battle is likely to be as difficult as it was against O’Bannon. Indiana Chamber of Status: Leans D. Commerce, had a somewhat Republican: Mike Delph, Deputy Secretary of State Todd different view. "we're not Secretary of State 2002: convinced this will make a Rokita, Richard Mourdock, , Paul Helmke. Democrat: Bloomington Mayor John significant improvement." Fernandez. Libertarian: Paul Hager. 1994 Results: Gilroy (R) 902,100, Jeffers (D) 542,539, Dillon (L) 32,483, Knight (A) 13,948. 1998 Results: Gilroy 828,557, Little (D) 652,565, Dillon PENCE SAYS HE CAN (L) 51,775. 2002 Forecast: Hager enters the race, which is a critical development for the WORK WITH HARCOURT: Indiana Libertarians. He needs to capture 5 percent of the vote in order for the party to automati- The buzz in Republican cir- cally qualify candidates for statewide offices. Status: Tossup. cles last week was that U.S. Congressional District 2: Republican: Chris Chocola, State Sen. Thomas Rep. Mike Pence and his Weatherwax. Democrat: Jill Long Thompson, Mark Meissner. Geography: South Bend, chief of staff, Bill Smith, had Michigan City, Mishawaka, Elkhart, Kokomo, Plymouth, Logansport; LaPorte, St. Joseph, worked to defeat Jean Ann Starke, Marshall, Pulaski, Fulton, Cass, Carroll and parts of Howard, Porter, Elkhart and White Harcourt as chair of the new counties. Media Market: South Bend-Elkhart, Indianapolis, Lafayette, Chicago. 2000 Result: 6th CD. Several key Roemer (D) 107,076, Chocola (R) 98,367. 2002 Forecast: Weatherwax and Chocola met at a Republican sources had Bob Evans in Logansport, but neither ist talking. Weatherwax is still weighing a run. Chocola Page 9 of 9 Thursday, June 14, 2001 told Dave Kitchell of the Logansport Pharos-Tribune on the residency issue, “I think people who pay attention to it understand that I was drawn out. I didn’t move anywhere. They moved the district. They can say what they want, but I don’t think this is an egotistical answer. I don’t think there’s any coincidence that they drew me out of the district by a mile. I live in this com- munity and I’m running to represent a community. What I beat (Rep. Tim) Roemer up for was not living in the community he was elected to represent. He didn’t own any property in Indiana. He really didn’t spend that much time here. People dispute that, but travel records are public information and you can look at the number of days and time he spent in the district.” The told HPR that Pence and Smith Democratic field narrows as former State Sen. Cleo Washington and Katie Humphreys appear didn’t want Harcourt as chair to be passing on this race. Meissner says he would represent the new 2nd CD with a Bayh- because of her pro-choice Roemer "centrist approach" needed to get things done in Washington, especially in education. stance on the abortion issue. Meissner, 31, has learned that approach firsthand while serving on the staffs of U.S. Sen. Evan Pence counts some of his Bayh and Roemer. "I'm in politics because I want to get some things done," Meissner said (Jack most ardent supporters as Colwell, South Bend Tribune). "I'm not exploring; I'm running." While Meissner is in, Jill Long those from the Right to Life Thompson is clearly in the driver’s seat and we see little chance that she will be denied the nom- community. Pence told HPR, “I ination. All you have to do is look at the host committee for her big fundraiser at Jeff Smulyan’s did not actively support or home on June 21 - Julia Carson, Baron Hill, Andy Jacobs, Phil Sharp, Frank McCloskey, Joe oppose any candidate for the Hogsett, Butch Morgan, Fred Glass, Charles Redd, Shawn Mulholland, Brad Queisser, Ron district chairmanship believing Liggett, Dale Sturtz, and, oh yeah, Joe Andrew. Status: LEANS LONG THOMPSON . that such decisions are best Congressional District 3: Republican: U.S. Rep. Mark Souder. Democrat: Rodney made by party officials at the Scott, Jay Rigdon. Geography: Fort Wayne, Goshen; Kosciusko, Whitley, LaGrange, Steuben, county level.” Pence added, “I DeKalb and parts of Elkhart and Allen counties. Media Market: South Bend-Elkhart, Fort am looking forward to working Wayne. 2000 results: Souder (R) 131,051, Foster (D) 74,492. 2002 Forecast: Scott, 50, with Jean Ann Harcourt, the becomes first Democrat to formally announce. Scott,a political science professor at St. Francis new chairman of the 6th College, identified four areas he said he is most concerned about: the tax cut, including prescrip- Congressional District tion drugs in Medicare, oil prices and campaign finance. He also said that House candidates Republican Party.” should be barred from accepting campaign donations from anyone who lives outside of the dis- trict and that "I would not feel uncomfortable" if political action committees were eliminated. MAYOR LAWLER CLEARED IN He said he was inspired to become a candidate because "Mark Souder keeps drifting farther and ELECTION CORRUPTION farther to the right" (Sylvia Smith, Fort Wayne Journal Gazette). He said he has raised $4,000. PROBE: Anderson Mayor J. Souder spent $261,000 last year. Status: Safe R. Mark Lawler got a clean bill of Congressional District 4: Republican: U.S. Rep. Steve Buyer, U.S. Rep. Brian health Wednesday of allega- Kerns, State Sen. Mike Young. Democrat: Open. Geography: Tippecanoe, Clinton, Boone, tions of criminal wrongdoing Montgomery, Hendricks, Morgan, Lawrence and parts of Marion, Johnson, Monroe, Fountain during 1995 city elections (Ken and White counties. Media Market: Lafayette, Indianapolis, Terre Haute, Evansville, de la Bastide, Anderson Louisville. 2000 Results: Old 5th CD: Buyer (R) 132,035, Goodnight (D) 81,423; Old 7th Herald-Bulletin). The report by CD: Kerns 131,562, Graf (D) 65,174.. 2002 Forecast: Memo to the Indianapolis Star: we had two special prosecutors comes the Mike Young entry into this race on May 17. The real story this week was Young egging on more than a year after the expi- Buyer’s involvement with the Daylight Saving Time issue in Congress, which Buyer’s people ration of the statute of limita- see as a potential wedge issue (Daily Wire 6/11 and 6/12). Buyer’s people felt the Richard Berke tions on such charges. New York Times story was a slam (Daily Wire 6/5). Status: Safe R. Madison County Prosecutor Rodney Cummings asked for Republican: U.S. Rep. John Hostettler. Democrat: Congressional District 8: the special prosecutors just Paul Perry. Geography: Evansville, Terre Haute, Greencastle; Posey, Vanderburgh, Warrick, before the 1999 primary. He Gibson, Pike, Martin, Daviess, Knox, Sullivan, Greene, Owen, Clay, Vigo, Vermillion, Parke, was criticized in the report by Putnam, Warren and part of Fountain counties. Media Market: Evansville, Terre Haute, John Branham and John Indianapolis. Lafayette. 1994 results: Hostettler (R) 93,529, McCloskey (D) 84,857. 1996 Whiteleather Jr., the special Results: Hostettler (R) 109,582, Weinzapfel (D) 106,134, Hager (L) 3,799. 1998 Results: prosecutors. The two were Hostettler (R) 92,227, Riecken (D) 81,381, Hager (L) 3,395. 2000 Results: Hostettler 116,860, appointed in April 1999 to Perry (D) 100,461. 2002 Forecast: State Rep. Russ Stilwell probably won’t run, saying, “I spent investigate allegations. The a year in the jungles of Vietnam in a combat infantry unit but I'm not sure that I'm up to the task special prosecutors said they of the blood-letting that looms in the Bloody 8th! I might be a better ground soldier for our learned in January 2000 that Democrat candidate. The short answer to the Question . . . Probably not, but never say never." federal prosecutors had inves- Perry told HPR, “I’m taking an extremely close look at running. I’ve contacted all my consul- tigated the same allegations tants and had some conversation with Congressman (Steny) Hoyer and the DCCC.” Perry said and declined to file charges. " he had no time table in making his decision but added, “I’m very interested.” Status: Tossup. Brian A. Howey "