Icrg, Sept. 2003
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
INTERNATIONAL COUNTRY RISK GUIDE Volume XXIV, Number 9 September 2003 Published Monthly by The PRS Group Inc 6320 Fly Road, Suite 102, P.O.Box 248 East Syracuse, NY 13057-0248, USA Tel: +1 (315) 431 0511. Fax: +1 (315) 431 0200 http://www.prsgroup.com International Country Risk Guide September 2003 2 Reproduction without the permission of the publisher is strictly prohibited International Country Risk Guide September 2003 - IN THIS ISSUE - Editor: Tom Sealy Regional Editors: THE AMERICAS ......................................................... 7 Jeremy P Sealy Benedict F McTernan Risk Ratings: David Thompson Current Assessments and Forecasts................................ 8 Michael P Nunn Regional Survey: Statistics: Brazil .............................................................................. 9 Penelope J Appleby Costa Rica..................................................................... 13 Production Manager: Cuba.............................................................................. 16 Patricia Redhead Haiti .............................................................................. 21 Honduras....................................................................... 26 General Information: Panama.......................................................................... 29 Nora Ruthig United States of America.............................................. 34 Fax: (315) 431-0200 Uruguay ........................................................................ 40 Editorial Inquiries: Email: [email protected] Fax: +44 (0) 870 137 0960 EUROPE (EUROPEAN UNION) ............................. 43 ©2002, The PRS Group, Inc International Country Risk Guide ISSN: 0278-6680 Risk Ratings: Current Assessments and Forecasts.............................. 44 Printed in U.S.A. Manufactured by Dupli Envelope & Graphics Corporation. Regional Survey: Belgium ........................................................................ 45 Publications of The PRS Group are limited publications containing valuable market Denmark ....................................................................... 53 information provided to a select group of customers in response to orders and our customers Finland.......................................................................... 58 acknowledge when ordering that the reports so Italy............................................................................... 64 ordered are for our customer's own internal use only and not for general publication or disclosure Portugal......................................................................... 72 to third parties. This report may not be copied or given, lent or sold to third parties without written Spain ............................................................................. 76 permission nor may its contents be disclosed to non-customers without written permission. All rights (including copyright) reserved to the copyright holder. The PRS Group’s publications are based on information believed by us to be reliable. No guarantee or warranty is made to users that the information is accurate or complete. The risk ratings are the result of study and analysis of information regarded as relevant EUROPE (NON EUROPEAN UNION) ................... 81 and represent our best judgment. These ratings are not our recommendations to make commercial decisions and should be regarded as only one factor by management in making such decisions in Risk Ratings: their own business judgment. No guarantee or Current Assessments and Forecasts.............................. 82 warranty is made to users that the ratings are accurate or reliable. The Service is offered to users AS IS with NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, including without Regional Survey: limitation the WARRANTIES OF Hungary ........................................................................ 83 MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR PARTICULAR PURPOSES. Romania........................................................................ 86 Ukraine ......................................................................... 91 Reproduction without the permission of the publisher is strictly prohibited 3 International Country Risk Guide September 2003 NORTH AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST, AND CENTRAL ASIA................................................. 95 Risk Ratings: Current Assessments and Forecasts .......................................................... 96 Regional Survey: Armenia ............................................................................................................... 97 Iran..................................................................................................................... 102 Iraq..................................................................................................................... 109 Israel .................................................................................................................. 116 Kuwait................................................................................................................ 121 Sudan ................................................................................................................. 125 Tunisia ............................................................................................................... 129 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ........................................................................................................ 133 Risk Ratings: Current Assessments and Forecasts ........................................................ 134 Regional Survey: Botswana............................................................................................................ 135 Congo, Republic ................................................................................................ 140 Ghana................................................................................................................. 142 Liberia................................................................................................................ 147 South Africa....................................................................................................... 154 Zimbabwe .......................................................................................................... 157 ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ....................................................................................................... 163 Risk Ratings: Current Assessments and One-Year Forecasts ....................................... 164 Regional Survey: India ................................................................................................................... 165 Korea, Republic ................................................................................................. 172 Papua New Guinea............................................................................................. 176 Sri Lanka............................................................................................................ 182 Vietnam.............................................................................................................. 187 INDEX OF COUNTRY REPORTS ......................................................................................... 195 4 Reproduction without the permission of the publisher is strictly prohibited International Country Risk Guide September 2003 STATISTICAL SECTION:........................................................................................................S-1 Table 1: Country Risk Ranked by Composite Risk Rating..........................................................S-3 Table 2A: Composite Risk Rating over the period October 2002 - September 2003 ..................S-7 Table 2B: Current Risk Ratings and One-Year Forecasts..........................................................S-10 Table 2C: Composite Risk Rating Forecasts .............................................................................S-13 Table 3A: Political Risk Ratings over the period October 2002 - September 2003...................S-16 Table 3B: Political Risk Points by Component - September 2003 ............................................S-19 Table 3Ba: Political Risk Points by Subcomponent - September 2003 .....................................S-23 Table 3C: Political Risk Rating Forecasts .................................................................................S-26 Table 4A: Financial Risk Ratings over the period October 2002 – September 2003 ................S-29 Table 4B: Financial Risk Points by Component – September 2003 ..........................................S-32 Table 4C: Financial Risk Rating Forecasts................................................................................S-36 Table 5A: Economic Risk Ratings over the period September 2002 - September 2003............S-39 Table 5B: Economic Risk Points by Component - September 2003..........................................S-42 Table 5C: Economic Risk Rating Forecasts...............................................................................S-46 Table 6A: Summary of Economic Risk Components – September 2003 ..................................S-49 Table 6B: Summary of Financial Risk Components - September 2003.....................................S-52 Table 7: GDP per Head of Population........................................................................................S-56 Table 8: Real GDP Growth ........................................................................................................S-59 Table 9: Annual Inflation