Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst

BI-WEEKLY BRIEFING VOL. 15 NO. 23 27 NOVEMBER 2013 Contents

Analytical Articles

THE BIRYULEVO RIOTS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS 4 Emil Souleimanov and Megan Ouellette

THE STRATEGIC CONTEXT OF U.S.-AZERBAIJAN RELATIONS AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 7 Mamuka Tsereteli

KAZAKHSTAN INCREASINGLY CONCERNED OVER EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION 11 Stephen Blank

THE TURKMENISTAN-AFGHANISTAN-TAJIKISTAN RAILROAD PROJECT: THE PROSPECTS OF THE NEW SILK ROAD 15 Oleg Salimov

Field Reports

AZERBAIJAN’S PRESIDENT APPOINTS NEW MINISTER OF DEFENSE 19 Mina Muradova

NEW GEORGIAN GOVERNMENT FACES POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTIES 21 Archil Zhorzholiani

RUSSIA AND KAZAKHSTAN CLINCH “ALLIANCE FOR THE 21 CENTURY” 23 Georgiy Voloshin

KYRGYZSTAN’S DEFENSE COUNCIL DISCUSSES CORRUPTION 25 Arslan Sabyrbekov THE CENTRAL ASIA-CAUCASUS ANALYST

Editor: Svante E. Cornell

Associate Editor: Niklas Nilsson

Assistant Editor, News Digest: Alima Bissenova

Chairman, Editorial Board: S. Frederick Starr

The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is an English-language journal devoted to analysis of the current issues facing Central Asia and the Caucasus. It serves to link the business, governmental, journalistic and scholarly communities and is the global voice of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center. The Editor of the Analyst solicits most articles and field reports, however authors are encouraged to suggest topics for future issues or submit articles and field reports for consideration. Such articles and field reports cannot have been previously published in any form, must be written in English, and must correspond precisely to the format and style of articles and field reports published in The Analyst, described below. The Analyst aims to provide our industrious and engaged audience with a singular and reliable assessment of events and trends in the region written in an analytical tone rather than a polemical one. Analyst articles reflect the fact that we have a diverse international audience. While this should not affect what authors write about or their conclusions, this does affect the tone of articles. Analyst articles focus on a newsworthy topic, engage central issues of the latest breaking news from the region and are backed by solid evidence. Articles should normally be based on local language news sources. Each 1,100-1,500 word analytical article must provide relevant, precise and authoritative background information. It also must offer a sober and analytical judgment of the issue as well as a clinical evaluation of the importance of the event. Authors must cite facts of controversial nature to the Editor who may contact other experts to confirm claims. Since Analyst articles are based on solid evidence, rather than rumors or conjecture, they prove to be reliable sources of information on the region. By offering balanced and objective analysis while keeping clear of inflammatory rhetoric, The Analyst does more to inform our international readership on all sides of the issues. The Editor reserves the right to edit the article to conform to the editorial policy and specifications of The Analyst and to reject the article should it not be acceptable to our editorial committee for publication. On acceptance and publication of the edited version of the article, The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of The Johns Hopkins University-The Nitze School of Advanced International Studies will issue an honorarium to the author. It is up to the individual author to provide the correct paperwork to the Institute that makes the issuing of an honorarium possible. The copyright for the article or field report will reside with the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst. However, the author may use all or part of the contracted article in any book or article in any media subsequently written by the author, provided that a copyright notice appears giving reference to the contracted article’s first publication by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, The Johns Hopkins University, Nitze School of Advanced International Studies."

Submission Guidelines: Analytical Articles require a three to four sentence Key Issue introduction to the article based on a news hook. Rather than a general, overarching analysis, the article must offer considered and careful judgment supported with concrete examples. The ideal length of analytical articles is between 1,100 and 1,500 words. The articles are structured as follows: KEY ISSUE: A short 75-word statement of your conclusions about the issue or news event on which the article focuses. BACKGROUND: 300-450 words of analysis about what has led up to the event or issue and why this issue is critical to the region. Include background information about the views and experiences of the local population. IMPLICATIONS: 300-450 words of analysis of the ramifications of this event or issue, including where applicable, implications for the local people’s future. CONCLUSIONS: 100-200 words that strongly state your conclusions about the impact of the event or issue.

Field Reports focus on a particular news event and what local people think about the event. Field Reports address the implications the event or activity analyzed for peoples’ lives and their communities. Field Reports do not have the rigid structure of Analytical Articles, and are shorter in length, averaging ca. 700-800 words.

Those interested in joining The Analyst’s pool of authors to contribute articles, field reports, or contacts of potential writers, please send your CV to: and suggest some topics on which you would like to write.

Svante E. Cornell Research Director; Editor, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, The Johns Hopkins University 1619 Massachusetts Ave. N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, USA. Tel. +1-202-663-5922; 1-202-663-7723; Fax. +1-202-663-7785 Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 3

THE BIRYULEVO RIOTS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS Emil Souleimanov and Megan Ouellette

On October 11, word spread through social media about the murder of a 25-year old Russian by a suspect from the Caucasus during a street clash in Moscow’s southern periphery, an event that prompted anti-immigrant riots in Moscow accompanied by attacks on foreigners’ properties as well as foreigners themselves. The alleged murderer was arrested a few days later by Russian police, yet the scope of the riots and the authorities’ subsequent response signaled that much more was behind the incident than a simple, yet tragic, homicide.

BACKGROUND: Importantly, riots hit Russia’s North Caucasus republics to not only Biryulevo-Zapadnoe, Moscow’s Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and other industrial suburb, but echoed across the cities has occurred on a large scale, western part of the country. Saratov, stirring significant discontent among Krasnodar, Omsk, Volgograd and many ethnic Russians who consider Astrakhan as well as other smaller cities Caucasians in general, and Northeast experienced a series of massive anti- Caucasians in particular, to be violent, immigrant demonstrations aimed incapable of integration, and lacking predominantly at natives of the Caucasus proper “cultural behavior”. and Central Asia. These demonstrations As a whole, Caucasian and Central Asian demanding a review of Russia’s immigrants, both legal and illegal, are immigration policy were often marked often accused of stealing jobs from by racist and xenophobic slogans; and Russians, lowering the wages of the ensuing physical attacks on individuals native population, and engaging in of “non-Slavic appearance” in some criminal activities, particularly drug instances led to violent clashes between trafficking, theft, and other crimes. the protesters and alleged immigrants as Racist and anti-Muslim arguments have well as between protesters and police gone hand-in-hand with economic ones, forces. marking a dramatic increase of neo-Nazi It is believed that millions of immigrants parties and movements that draw from the South Caucasus and Central particularly, though not exclusively, from Asia have travelled to Russian cities in among soccer hooligans. search of a better life in recent years. According to recent sociological surveys, These immigrants have taken a variety of around 60 percent of respondents jobs, ranging from running small regularly identify with the motto “Russia businesses and working as taxi drivers to for Russians.” Indeed, it was precisely street cleanup and jobs as laborers in this slogan that some protesters chanted Russia’s thriving construction firms. during the upheaval in Biryulevo- Similarly, internal migration from Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 4

media. Similarly, authorities also refrain from making public comments, such as in the cases of Uzbek and Azerbaijani immigrants stabbed to death in Moscow in the days following the murder of the young Russian in Biryulevo. As a case in point, when a Dagestani youth lost his life while saving two teenage girls drowning in the Moscow River a few Zapadnoe. In light of the fact that around months ago, the incident received almost one-fifth of Russia’s population of 143 no coverage in the country’s mainstream million people is comprised of members media, and neither was the Dagestani of non-Russian ethnic groups, actual given any award posthumously. support for this concept among ethnic Experts both inside and outside Russia Russians might be even higher. have on multiple occasions pointed to the IMPLICATIONS: While authorities endemic corruption of Russian police have done little to impede the and bureaucracy as an obstacle that has dramatically increasing appeal of racism prevented immigrants’ (both legal and and xenophobia in the country, they have illegal) problems from being solved. often sought to capitalize on it. In Indeed, it is common knowledge that the addition, the media have usually been presence of immigrants on Russian soil eager to splash incidents of violence has served as a constant and solid source perpetrated by Caucasians and Central of income for police officers and Asians against ethnic Russians across immigration authorities. Thousands of their front pages. For example, the illegal immigrants, particularly from Biryulevo murderer, who is believed to Central Asian countries, have been used be Azerbaijani immigrant Orhan as semi-slave labor by, for instance, Zeinalov, was brought to the Minister of construction companies, many of which Interior in an army helicopter, escorted are owned or co-owned by high-ranking by a large group of masked officers from members of local governments both in the elite police force, an “honor” hardly Moscow and in the regions. bestowed upon any average criminal. Following the Biryulevo events, Day-to-day incidents of violence authorities have launched a wave of raids involving ethnic Russian victims have on dormitories inhabited by allegedly thus routinely been given statewide illegal immigrants, as well as warehouses coverage by the media and authorities, both in Biryulevo and elsewhere, such as the accidental slaying of an arresting hundreds of individuals in the ethnic Russian by Dagestani mixed immediate aftermath of the murder. martial artist Rasul Mirzaev in 2012. On Local residents and officials have the contrary, cases in which the victim is identified the Pokrovskaya vegetable a native of the Caucasus or Central Asia warehouse as problematic, prompting its receive virtually no mention in the closure in the days following the riots. Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 5

While closing down the warehouse and Russian citizens, North Caucasians instituting checks on the status of present a unique challenge to those who immigrants working or shopping there would seek to assert a particular, will help to mollify angry local residents exclusively Slavic, conception of and nationalists, such measures hardly Russian identity. offer a long-term solution. Even if the During the 2014 Winter Olympics in widespread immigration reforms desired Sochi, the North Caucasus will serve as by some are implemented, they do not Russia’s face to the world – a scenic offer a catch-all solution. backdrop and distraction from the Though implementing a visa regime for complex socio-economic and political immigrants from Central Asian and circumstances that often drive the South Caucasian countries may stem the region’s inhabitants out of the mountains tide of immigration from those countries, and into cities like Moscow. Often it will have no impact on internal treated as outsiders within their own migration. North Caucasians, often country, North Caucasians are frequently grouped together with Central Asian and the main target of discontent among South Caucasians as “outsiders” will still majority ethnic Russians, and are be able to migrate to cities outside their considered particularly problematic due native region. Though the closure of to their alleged predisposition to vegetable warehouses and other aggressive behavior, bad manners and enterprises typically associated with disrespect towards the “majority immigrants will have important symbolic population”, which can only partially be value and may even alleviate certain explained as a legacy of protracted armed problems on the local, Biryulevo level, conflicts in the North Caucasus. the societal tensions that made the riots The overall result is a serious identity in question possible will remain. The fact crisis in Russia, splitting the population that one murder, which under different along regional, ethnic, racial, and circumstances would likely have gone religious lines. This has partially helped unnoticed outside of the neighborhood, to draw new recruits into the ranks of provoked such a massive, widespread radical Islamic insurgents eager to offer reaction proves that Biryulevo’s Salafi Islam and violent insurgency as an problems are Russia’s problems. alternative source of identity, and many CONCLUSIONS: Far from an isolated North Caucasians, particularly incident of neighborhood crime, the Dagestanis, have been recruited into Biryulevo incident is symptomatic of the jamaats after spending time in Russian increasing appeal of racism, xenophobia cities. The Biryulevo incident and the and Islamophobia in Russia’s multiethnic protests that followed therefore serve as a and multicultural society. While painful reminder of the pressing need to immigrants from the former Soviet address Russian society’s underlying republics of the South Caucasus and tensions and divisions, a problem that Central Asia are now foreigners in already has severe repercussions for Russia, North Caucasians are not. As some of the country's population. Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 6

AUTHOR'S BIO: Emil Souleimanov is Endless War: The Russian-Chechen Associate Professor with the Department Conflict in Perspective (Frankfurt am of Russian and East European Studies, Main: Peter Lang, 2007). Megan Charles University in Prague, Czech Ouellette is a recent graduate of Charles Republic. He is the author of University in Prague, Czech Republic Understanding Ethnopolitical Conflict: and University College London’s School Karabakh, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia of Slavonic and East European Studies. Wars Reconsidered (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013) and An Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 7

THE STRATEGIC CONTEXT OF U.S.- AZERBAIJAN RELATIONS AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS Mamuka Tsereteli

On October 9, 2013, Azerbaijan held presidential elections and incumbent president Ilham Aliyev was re-elected for another five year term. The OSCE ODIHR observer mission, as well as the U.S. government, issued critical statements about the conduct of elections by Azerbaijani authorities that created tensions in Azerbaijan’s relationships with Western allies. Issues of concern need to be addressed, but they should not disrupt Western engagement and critical support for Azerbaijan’s sovereignty against the backdrop of assertive Russian policies to limit the Western presence in the broader Eastern European and Central Eurasian Space.

BACKGROUND: Azerbaijan is a challenge for Azerbaijan. Nagorno- pivotal state for Western interests Karabakh and seven additional in the Caucasus and Central Asia. regions of Azerbaijan remain under The country is a key supplier of oil Armenian control. The conflict is a to several Mediterranean countries, major factor impacting not only including Israel, and is soon to Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, but become the first Caspian producer also the security and geopolitical to ship natural gas directly to environment of the entire Caucasus European consumers. Azerbaijan, region. Russia is an important together with Georgia, represents guarantor of Armenia's security, strategic access to Central Asia, and determining the presence of Baku's port serves as a key logistical Russian troops in Armenia and hub for transshipments of a variety providing Russia with leverage over of cargos to Afghanistan. Azerbaijan Armenia on major geopolitical and is sandwiched between Russia and economic issues, and in turn Iran. Both neighbors understand complicating resolution of the well the importance of Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. location and are seeking to prevent A new element of Russian pressure a deeper Western integration of the emerged relatively recently, on the small Caspian state. While Russia is eve of the EU's Eastern Partnership openly assertive in its relationships (EaP) Summit to be held in the with all its neighbors, Iran is more Lithuanian capital of Vilnius on covert and tries to operate below the radar screen.

Finally, the unresolved conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh remains a key Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 8

illustrated by the fact that Sargsyan had shown no intention to make this move prior to his trip to Moscow, and had by all accounts failed to discuss the matter with anyone prior to his trip, thus taking his entire country by surprise.

IMPLICATIONS: Encouraged by this success with Armenia and by the limited response from Western November 27-28, 2013. It was countries, Russia advanced its expected at the summit that Ukraine tactics on other states, using trade would sign an Association sanctions and other political tools, Agreement (AA) on Deep and such as borderization and creeping Comprehensive Free Trade annexation of Georgian territories Agreement (DCFTA) with the EU. occupied by Russian military forces Other EaP participants, Georgia, since 2008. Under tremendous Armenia and Moldova, were pressure, Ukraine announced on planning to initial the agreement, in November 21 its decision not to anticipation of final ratification by sign an agreement and pursue a next year. For the last several trilateral Russia-Ukraine-EU trade months, Russian officials are on and economic integration process. record expressing their discontent This may simply be a tactical and have threatened economic retreat, and not yet a strategic severe ramifications should such defeat of Ukraine's European agreements be reached. integration, but it is clear that pressure will mount on every actor Such Russian pressure manifested in the Russian neighborhood itself during a meeting between pursuing an independent foreign Armenian President Sargsyan and policy, to join the Customs Union. President Putin on September 3 in Azerbaijan is facing very serious Moscow, where it was announced challenges in this regard too. that Armenia will join the Customs Union, thus making it very difficult, In December 2012, Secretary if not impossible, to move forward Clinton delivered one of her last with Armenia’s plans for an EU speeches as Secretary of State and Association Agreement, which mentioned the imminent threat of would include a Deep and Russia’s undue influence in the Comprehensive Free Trade region. “There is a move to re- Agreement that is incompatible Sovietize the region,” she stated. with the Customs Union. The nature “It’s not going to be called that. It’s of Russian pressure is best going to be called a customs union; it will be called Eurasian Union and Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 9 all of that. But let's make no mistake implementation of the Southern Gas about it. We know what the goal is Corridor that will supply natural gas and we are trying to figure out to U.S. allies in Europe via a complex effective ways to slow down or set of pipelines stretched from off- prevent it.” The current shore Caspian fields to the Italian membership in the Customs Union market via Georgia, Turkey, Greece, includes Russia, Kazakhstan, and and Albania, thus supporting energy Belarus, and Russia’s plan is to and economic security for all transit significantly increase membership countries. In addition, Azerbaijan is in the near future. Azerbaijan will a secular Muslim state in a difficult be a major target. neighborhood, a property that deserves to be safeguarded. This multilevel pressure creates a major security challenge for In the final analysis, there is too Azerbaijan. Against the backdrop of often a perceived choice between this complicated environment, and strategic interests and the support having in mind that there was no for democracy. This is a false choice. real challenge to the incumbent In Azerbaijan, and the broader president, the conduct of elections region, the ineffectual nature of on November 9 should not obscure western democracy promotion is the very real interests that America directly related to the West’s has in Azerbaijan. Tensions perceived disengagement from the between the U.S. and Azerbaijan will security concerns of the South damage the interests of both Caucasus. Only two years ago, countries and could in the context of Washington allowed the post of U.S. other Russian actions substantially Ambassador remain vacant for close weaken and even reverse the West's to a year; and only last year, the strategic gains in the Caucasus and post of American co-chair to the Central Asia, reached over the last Minsk Group, tasked to resolve the two decades. Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – Azerbaijan’s deepest national Azerbaijan is at the center of several concern – was similarly left vacant. strategic projects of significant To put it simply: if America wants to importance to U.S. national interests influence Azerbaijan’s domestic and their implementation should politics in the right direction, the not be compromised. A primary first thing it should do is to engage such interest is logistical support in the security issues of the region, for the withdrawal of U.S. troops return to its earlier policies of and equipment from Afghanistan in actively supporting the sovereignty 2014 and beyond, in which Baku's and independence of the region’s sea and air ports, and Azerbaijani as countries, and well as Georgian railways will have a very important role to play. The CONCLUSIONS: In order to second strategic project is the perform its important regional Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 10 functions, and to maintain its region. However, visits of the sovereignty under growing Secretary of State are essential for pressure, Azerbaijan needs strong the appropriate level of engagement political support. High level political to address all the issues of concern, engagement is critical for this part including democratic and civil of the world. President Putin society development in the context understands this and frequently of a broader commitment to the meets face to face with the regional security of the Azerbaijani state. leaders. He personally visited Baku These issues cannot be separated in on August 13 and brought with him the highly tense security several high level officials to environment surrounding demonstrate Azerbaijan's Azerbaijan. significance for Russian policies. AUTHOR’S BIO: Mamuka The case of Central Asia proves that Tsereteli is Director of Research for China’s leaders also understand the the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute importance of high level personal & Silk Road Studies Joint Center. engagement. The U.S. has too much on its plate, and no one expects frequent presidential trips to the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 11

KAZAKHSTAN INCREASINGLY CONCERNED OVER EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION Stephen Blank

Kazakhstan joined the Customs Union with Belarus and Russia in 2010 and by 2012, it had evolved into a single Eurasian Economic Space known also as EurAsEc. The economic union is Putin’s principal foreign policy goal and Ukraine in the West and Kazakhstan in the East are particularly important to the success of this enterprise. Yet, while Ukraine was poised to instead sign a trade agreement with the EU at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius on November 28-29, it has stopped preparing for that signing ceremony, evidently succumbing to Russian pressure. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has now registered increasingly vocal complaints about the direction EurAsEc is taking.

BACKGROUND: These complaints Central Asian leader, cannot explicitly truly represent a serious challenge to or implicitly accept Russia-imposed EurAsEc. Indeed, Nazarbayev limitations to any post-Soviet state’s originated the idea and program of sovereignty in foreign and economic Eurasian integration and has policy. Nazarbayev also used the Minsk steadfastly promoted it throughout his conference to warn that Kazakhstan’s tenure as president of Kazakhstan growing trade deficit with Russia and since 1991. If the sources of Belarus was “very dangerous” for Kazakhstan’s dissatisfaction cannot be Kazakhstan. He has advised governors dealt with, the entire project becomes of regions bordering Russia to increase fundamentally problematic. Several exports, but that is unlikely to occur. issues lie at the heart of Nazarbayev’s Nazarbayev proceeded to criticize as dissatisfaction, which he publicly well the work of the Eurasian expressed at the recent Minsk Economic Commission, the supreme conference of the heads of state of the administrative body of EurAsEc, whose Supreme Eurasian Economic Council of composition is supposed to be made EurAsEc. up of independent functionaries acting Even before that meeting, he had made as agents of the Commission, not clear publicly that he saw no harm in individual governments. Nazarbayev Ukraine’s signing an Association complained that the Commission’s Agreement or Deep and work has become excessively Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement politicized, in other words pro- with the EU. Although this was a major Russian, since Russia furnishes the shot across Russia’s bow, it was not largest number of officials to the unexpected as Nazarbayev, like any Commission. He accused Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 12 commissioners of embezzling funds Union and the nature of Russia’s and wasting opportunities to enhance threats against them indicate the genuine integration; of sending out fundamentally geopolitical motivation documents for approval a day before behind this project. As former the vote on them is supposed to occur; Secretary of State Clinton warned, it and of Russian members of the amounts to a re-Sovietization program commission participating in Russian and a way for Putin to brand himself as governmental meetings and receiving a contemporary “gatherer of Russian relevant instructions while they are lands.” not accountable to any of the other Neither should we be surprised that governments in line with past the Commission works more as an agreements. Nazarbayev called for instrument of Moscow than as an abolishing the Eurasian Economic independent objective body of experts Commission and preserving the and officials. Despite all the Russian Community, albeit in a reformed talk of modeling the Customs Union version. after the EU and its European Lastly he warned against the hasty Commission, the Eurasian Commission admission of new members, e.g. clearly functions more like an arm of Armenia and Ukraine, in a clear the Soviet or Tsarist sate in attempting warning against Russian pressure on to coordinate members’ economies for these states. His remarks also made Russia’s benefit. clear that he suspected Russia’s Here we should remember that a motives for this expansion of being customs union can either form a union geopolitical rather than economic. of more or less equal states, which is None of these critiques of the project, what the European Coal and Steel including his remarks about excessive community and the subsequent Treaty trade barriers e.g. between Russia and of Rome provided for. Alternatively, Belarus, could please Moscow. But they can function as did the nineteenth Putin’s response was equivocal century German Zollverein (Customs because in the run-up to the EU Union) that provided Prussia with a summit at Vilnius, Moscow cannot crucial lever by which to effectuate under any circumstances afford Germany’s economic integration another imbroglio with a key member around it. It is very clear in this context of the Customs Union over this that Putin's Eurasian project, the program. Customs Union and Single Economic space, function according to the latter IMPLICATIONS: None of model, not the former. Nazarbayev’s criticisms should come as a surprise. If this had not been Any customs union is by definition an evident before, the pressure on organization diverting members’ trade Armenia, Moldova, and Ukraine as well with the outside world to intra-union as on Kyrgyzstan to join the Customs channels and this project is no Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 13 different. To be sure, there are benefits cheaper goods. to the members that no doubt As the Vilnius summit approached, Kazakhstan counted on. As a Deloitte immense pressure was brought to bear study pointed out, “Since creation it upon Ukraine and will likely continue has already brought additional afterwards, for Moscow is determined benefits for trading partners by to negate Ukraine’s previous freedom insuring the free circulation of goods of maneuver. And even if Ukraine had between the Customs Union countries signed with the EU, this would only and providing traders and investors have been the beginning of with a larger economic area to operate implementation, the really decisive in and a more attractive market for aspect of this process. We can expect potential investors.” Moscow to continue behaving as a On the other hand, almost all studies trade bully and a monopolist, not only have shown that the actual trade towards Ukraine. Putin’s concurrent benefits for Kazakhstan have been refusal to reform the Russian economy modest at best as trade is diverted also cannot but have negative from either better quality European repercussions for Kazakhstan’s efforts products or more affordable Chinese to rectify this asymmetric trade goods to Russian goods that are either balance. It is not clear what inferior in quality or more expensive Kazakhstan will do as it obviously is than the alternatives. The same holds wary of too close an embrace of both true for Kyrgyzstan. Likewise, apart Moscow and Beijing. from the Russian studies cited by But in the meantime, the inherent Sergei Glazyev, Putin’s point man on limitations of Putin’s grand design are threatening Ukraine and an exemplar already apparent and Russia's of neo-Soviet economics, as Anders increasingly noncompetitive economy Åslund has shown, most studies show cannot be the engine of growth, Ukraine not benefiting from especially when its own officials are membership in the Customs Union and embezzling the Commission’s funds gaining much more from agreement and infecting all of its projects with the with the EU. endemic corruption of the Russian Neither is Kazakhstan's trade deficit Federation. Obviously it is not yet with Russia likely to diminish, as possible to discern how the Customs Russia's economic stagnation will Union and associated institutions will probably prompt it to export more to evolve, if they can evolve at all, and its neighbors even as its imports from how this will affect all of the members, them decline. Furthermore, if the bystanders and interested participants Commission is functioning as an arm of like China. Yet, it is clear that the Russian government, it will no membership in this Union is already doubt find ways to impose proving to be a sub-optimal choice protectionist rules on imports from from both the economic and political other members to protect Russia from standpoints, and that tensions within it Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 14 are likely to grow rather than to economic policies under Putin. But diminish in the foreseeable future, such decisions invariably end up especially as Kazakhstan if not other producing economically sub-optimal members join the World Trade decisions and distortions that, in turn, Organization (WTO). make it harder to achieve the political goals that were originally the driving CONCLUSIONS: Ultimately, the force behind those decisions. The tensions reflect the fact that these Customs Union was supposed to be a governments cannot conceive of vehicle for promoting interstate economic issues other than in a harmony. It is now increasingly clear geopolitically dominant light and that it has become the opposite and it subordinate rational economic is by no means clear whether it can considerations in policymaking to the reverse that direction. exigencies of short-term political gains and corruption. As long as Russia AUTHOR'S BIO: Stephen Blank is a believes it has a privileged sphere of Senior Fellow with the American influence in the former Soviet zone, it Foreign Policy Council. will seek to bend economic programs to political imperatives as has been the basic character of its energy and Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 15

THE TURKMENISTAN-AFGHANISTAN- TAJIKISTAN RAILROAD PROJECT: THE PROSPECTS OF THE NEW SILK ROAD Oleg Salimov

The challenges of economic development and regional integration in Central Asia have given rise to a number of projects in various spheres. Among these, the “Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Tajikistan” railroad is directly aimed at stimulating the participating countries' economies through the creation of a better transportation system for easy access to new markets. The project's goal is to expand regional infrastructure, connect the landlocked countries with seaways, and eventually link Eurasian and Southeast Asian markets. The ability of the participants to successfully finalize construction of the railroad, provide security, and incite an interest from other countries will determine whether this project can mark the beginning of a new Silk Road.

BACKGROUND: The construction of implementing its own strategy and for the railroad officially started on June 5, relying on investments from parties 2013, in Turkmenistan. The expected immediately affected by the outcome. total length of the railroad is projected Although ambitious, the strategy has to reach 500 kilometers or longer. The not proven sufficient to address the three versions of the project envision challenges involved, in Central Asia around 90 kilometers of railroad in and beyond, a problem compounded southern Turkmenistan, between 230 by reluctance on part of the U.S. to get and 350 kilometers in northern deeply involved in the region beyond Afghanistan, and between 50 and 160 Afghanistan. kilometers in southern Tajikistan, at At least two of the participating cost estimates starting at US$ 400 countries are in desperate need of a million. The project is developed as better transportation system within part of the Central Asia Regional the region. Afghanistan and Tajikistan Cooperation Program primarily are both economically depressed and financed by the Asian Development largely isolated from world markets Bank, with completion expected in due to their landlocked geography and 2015. lack of interstate roads. Tajikistan's The railroad echoes the strategy for transportation infrastructure is mostly regional development through a oriented northwards and depends network of highways, railroads, and greatly on Uzbekistan, which energy-supply lines envisioned by the frequently restricts Tajik transit traffic. U.S. in its “New Silk Road Strategy” In Afghanistan, due to its long lasting from 2011. However, the U.S. has turmoil, most of the transporting sustained criticism for its passivity in Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 16 infrastructure is completely destroyed with Afghanistan, Turkmenistan or in poor condition. stresses energy supply and the development of transportation Tajikistan’s frequent disputes with connectivity. Having recently started Uzbekistan over land and water have construction of its part of the railroad, led Tashkent to routinely disrupt or Turkmenistan considers the project to halt all transit traffic to and from be highly lucrative - in addition to its Tajikistan. This limits Tajikistan’s existing access northward and access to gasoline, heating oil, westward via the Caspian Sea; the consumer goods, and food products, railroad will provide southward which it imports from Russia. connections. Tashkent also prevents Tajikistan from exporting its own main products: IMPLICATIONS: All three cotton and aluminum. These participants have significant stakes in constraints not only hurt Tajikistan’s the project's success. It promises economic development but also create access to new markets for humanitarian dangers in the country. Turkmenistan, an opportunity for Tajikistan to circumvent the Afghanistan shares long borders with transportation constraints imposed by Turkmenistan and Tajikistan (750 and Uzbekistan, and a means for 1,300 kilometers respectively) but has Afghanistan to break out of its never had strong transport isolation and integrate with the connections with them. Currently, Central Asian region. There are also Afghanistan and Tajikistan are economic and political reasons for reinforcing their cooperation in extra-regional actors to endorse the counterterrorism, social protection, project. For example, it will provide energy, border security, and economy. South Asian countries with a shortcut According to Afghani experts, the trade to the Caspian and the region's oil and between the two countries grew to gas resources and is in line with the US$ 130 million in the last ten years. In U.S. political agenda for reducing 2010, the European Trade Committee Russia's influence in Central Asia, not estimated the value of Afghanistan’s least through alternative trade with Tajikistan to 69.6 million transportation networks. Euros and its trade with Turkmenistan to 163.1 million Euros. The initiated However, the railroad also gives rise to trans-regional railroad project is likely several risks. One is the spread of drug to increase these numbers. trafficking from Afghanistan. Another is the continuing insurgency in According to Turkmenistan's official Afghanistan and attacks on targets media, it is one of the few countries affiliated with the U.S. or NATO. The maintaining continuous economic recent U.S.-Afghanistan security cooperation with Afghanistan in the agreement stipulates U.S. training and last 20 years due to its policy of funding of Afghan forces and a U.S. “positive neutrality.” In its cooperation presence of about 8,000 troops until Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 17

2024. The question arises whether Turkmenistan, the initiator of the Afghan forces and the remaining U.S. project, will likely become the most military contingent will be able to prominent beneficiary of the railroad provide the security needed for the regardless of the outcome. First, the railroad’s completion and operation. projected railroad connects the southern part of Turkmenistan with Tajikistan relies heavily on exploiting the rest of the country. Second, its water resources in stimulating the Turkmenistan has maintained economy. The railway project is crucial economic relations with Afghanistan for Tajikistan as it will allow for regardless of the political situation and completion of the Rogun and Sangtuda is expected to continue them in the hydropower plants, which are in part future. Third, the South Asian markets postponed due to the logistical are not the only but an additional difficulties imposed by Uzbekistan. source of income for Turkmenistan. Still, Tajikistan can be considered the While Afghanistan is considered to be weakest link in the chain and the most the crossroads of Asia, it still depends likely drop-out of the project. Although on other countries to use its territory Tajikistan is actively seeking to bypass for transit purposes. Therefore, as one Uzbekistan, Azhdar Kurtov from the of the prerequisites, Afghanistan’s Russian Institute of Strategic Research ability to provide secure transit can believes that the country is unlikely to determine its future economic complete the project. He considers the development. railroad construction as a pre-election move by President Rakhmon and that The railroad could have an ambiguous building a railroad in the high- effect on the interests of other political mountain terrain of southern players in the region. The potential for Tajikistan is unreasonably challenging Afghanistan to become more self- and expensive. sufficient and reduced Russian dominance in Central Asia may present In addition, Tajikistan's geographic appealing prospects in a U.S. location is not favorable to the perspective. However, the economic project’s long-term goals. The railroad penetration of Iran and China into the from the Caspian region to South Asia region could be considered a would go south of the Tajik border, counterproductive side effect. At the making Tajikistan an adjunct point. same time, China seeks persistently to Simultaneously, the Pamir mountain develop its eastern regions and easy range would prevent Tajikistan from access to the oil resources and markets extending the railroad into China, of the Caspian and Gulf countries leaving the country cut off from the would be a conceivable breakthrough main transport routes. None of in this regard. Tajikistan’s previously announced railway projects were actually CONCLUSIONS: While the railway realized, mostly due to a lack of project holds considerable prospects financing. for economic development in Central Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 18

Asia, it is still marked by several withdraw from the project for various uncertainties. It is understood that the reasons. The reaction to the project projected railroad could end from other interested countries such Afghanistan's economic isolation, as the U.S., Russia, China, and others as alleviate Tajikistan's transportation well as the leverage they will apply are predicament, increase regional trade, yet to be seen. and provide wider access to Turkmen AUTHOR'S BIO: Oleg Salimov holds gas resources. At the same time, a PhD in Interdisciplinary Studies Afghanistan's instability and its (Public Administration, Political upcoming transition to autonomous Science, Education, and Sociology) governance constitutes a challenge to from the University of Montana. the security of the construction as well as the later operation of the railroad. Also, Tajikistan could abruptly Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 19

AZERBAIJAN’S PRESIDENT APPOINTS NEW MINISTER OF DEFENSE Mina Muradova

The appointment of a new Minister of no military action in Nagorno- Defense in Azerbaijan is considered to Karabakh should be expected until at be a surprising decision of newly re- least 2015, as Azerbaijan is preparing elected President Ilham Aliyev, causing to host the 2015 European Games. He speculations over his reasons for said the replacement of the Defense changing one of the veteran ministers Minister was no surprise, due to the in the cabinet. It has been suggested problem of “non-combat deaths among that the decision to replace Safar soldiers in peace time,” and the public Abiyev with Zakir Hasanov, Deputy indignation caused by the growing Interior Minister and Commander of government spending on the army. Internal Troops for the last ten years, Musabeyov asserted that the President could signal that Baku is getting ready aims to “strengthen and improve this to move from military rhetoric to sector” by the new appointment, and action in retaking the territories described the new minister as an occupied during the conflict with “experienced commander who could Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. establish a strong discipline and keep Senior Azerbaijani officials have non-combat losses in his internal warned repeatedly that unless a troops on the lowest level.” political settlement is reached Former Defense Minister Abiyev held regarding Karabakh, a “military his post for 18 years and was solution” is the only alternative. frequently blamed for corruption in Armenian analysts have also expressed the armed forces. Regardless of the concerns over what Abiyev’s motivation behind the decision, the replacement will mean for future replacement was largely received negotiations over Nagorno-Karabakh. positively by the Azerbaijani public. A Yerevan-based analyst Richard series of rallies have been held this Giragosian stated that “… with the new year in central Baku to raise Azerbaijani Defense Minister, the risk awareness about the deaths of young of war over Karabakh has just army conscripts and demand that they increased three-fold, as this move may be investigated. signal the start of real defense reform According to Doktrina, a non- and adoption of a serious offensive governmental research center posture, as well as a possible end to specialized in defense affairs, of the 76 corruption within the Azerbaijani soldiers who have died this year only Ministry of Defense.” ten were killed by Armenian forces Rasim Musabeyov, a member of along the front lines, where a tenuous Azerbaijan’s parliament, believes that ceasefire has been in place since 1994. Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 20

Most non-combat deaths are reported “the ruling elite’s greater fear of as suicides. The proportions were internal challenges, rather than similar last year, with 20 combat external ones,” due to the systematic deaths out of the total 97 fatalities in upgrades of the internal troops and the military. other law enforcement agencies, whose primary role is to protect the At the same time, defense expenses ruling elite. “A war in Nagorno- have over the last decade increased by Karabakh is unlikely in the immediate a factor of 22. As President Aliyev term. But in the longer term noted “[if] in 2003 our military budget fragmented, divided, accountable-to- was US$163 million, last year this no-one-but-the-president, un- figure was US$ 3.6 billion and this year transparent, corrupt and internally it has reached US$ 3.7 billion.” The feuding armed forces could all too parliament is currently considering the easily be sent off to fight to satisfy 2014 state budget and according to the internal power struggles,” the report bill, the government is going to spend reads. AZN 48 million (US$ 60 million) more than in 2013. Military expenses are the Newly appointed Defense Minister largest post in the national budget. Hasanov has sacked the two deputy ministers and other senior officers he Aliyev stated at a government meeting inherited from his predecessor. Oxford in October that “…The military costs Analytica noted in a recent analysis are taking a special place in the state that the replacement of Abiyev with budget of this year…, this is natural, the commander of the country's since we live in conditions of war and Internal Troops represents a the Azerbaijani government is doing significant shift in policy, suggesting everything possible to accelerate and the possible launch of serious defense strengthen the army’s development … reform and a new anti-corruption Currently, the Azerbaijani army is the campaign within the Azerbaijani strongest, most professional and battle armed forces. “The move may also worthy army in the South Caucasus.” herald a more forceful use of the An International Crisis Group (ICG) military to ensure internal domestic report released five years ago noted order and stability,” it notes. that the lack of meaningful parliamentary oversight leads to a lack of transparency and accountability in the security sector, causing problems such as price inflation and preferential treatment of proxy companies, as well as lethal accidents due to inferior hardware. ICG described reforms in the Azerbaijani army as a reflection of

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 21

NEW GEORGIAN GOVERNMENT FACES POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTIES Archil Zhorzholiani

On November 17, Giorgi the occupied territories. Moreover, he Margvelashvili was sworn in as happily appreciated the Georgia’s fourth president. Shortly congratulations from Patriarch Kirill, thereafter, Georgia’s parliament the head of Russian Orthodox Church, confirmed Irakli Gharibashvili as new on his presidential victory, which in Prime Minister to replace billionaire Margvelashvili’s words would Bidzina Ivanishvili on the post (see the encourage “people to people contacts 13/11/2013 issue of the CACI between two orthodox Christian Analyst). In his inauguration speech, nations.” To the question of whether President Margvelashvili reasserted he was going to attend the 2014 Sochi his commitment to democratic and Olympics, Margvelashvili responded Euro-Atlantic values. As he put it, that he had been considering the issue Georgia has departed from its post- with his political team. Soviet past and now is switching to a Meanwhile, PM Irakli modern type of democracy that is Gharibashvili kept the cabinet of centered on a European political ministers intact, with the exception of culture. the Interior Minister, and presented Margvelashvili stressed the his government’s program to the importance of international parliament. guarantees for the policies of non- The parliamentary minority group, recognition and de-occupation of the represented by the United National occupied territories. In this regard, Movement (UNM), slammed the integration with the EU and NATO as program, and especially its economic well as enhancing bilateral ties with forecast. According to official figures, the U.S. was declared priorities by the Georgia’s tax revenue will fail to reach president. He also restated the new the 2013 target as economic growth is government’s pledge to engage in far below the forecasted 6 percent, dialogue with Russia to underpin given the 1.7 percent growth of the mutual confidence and overcome economy in the first nine months of existing problems. this year. In October, UNM anticipated However, in an earlier interview with a budget cut before the end of the Russia’s Channel 1, the president- year. Although the government elect not only proclaimed his eventually admitted the shortfall in readiness to maintain an intensive revenues in November, the Minister of dialogue with Russia but also Finance, Nodar Khaduri, dismissed completely ignored the question of Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 22 the rumors about an upcoming budget would be released to “repay sequestration. obligations taken by you.” However, the parliamentary minority insists Against this background, that the government is taking an Gharibashvili was asked numerous internal loan to ensure funding of questions regarding the slowdown in healthcare and pensions. In sum, the economic growth at the parliamentary opposition assessed the economic hearing. Reading out from his notes, part of the new government’s the PM elucidated that the previous program as ambiguous and failing to years’ economic growth was based on identify precise economic measures to state-funded large-scale address the economic stagnation. infrastructure projects with a one- time and short-term effect, and that While the economy is set to be the economic growth started to plummet most crucial issue for the new in summer 2012, before Georgian government, the new government’s Dream (GD) came into power. foreign policy also implies controversial choices. This assertion was, however, Margvelashvili’s inauguration speech challenged by UNM MP Zurab did emphasize the non-recognition Japaridze, who asserted that the and de-occupation policies regarding indicator of economic growth was 7.5 Abkhazia and South Ossetia. However, percent in the third quarter of last his silence on occupied territories and year. Although the slowdown started the return of Internally Displaced in June, the figure fell to 2.8 percent in Persons during the interview with the fourth quarter of 2012 - not Russian Channel 1 may suggest that, before but after GD held the office. from a GD standpoint, intensive The new cabinet also argued that the dialogue with Russia does not economic difficulties are an effect of necessarily mean discussion of the the difficulties of cohabitation process most problematic security questions. and the destructive actions carried Without a coherent standpoint on out by UNM, a claim dismissed by these issues, however, UNM MPs as an attempt by the “normalization” of relations can only government to avoid responsibility as be considered at the expense of the opposition has not had the power Georgia’s territorial integrity. to influence economic processes. Moreover, the case of Ukraine The opposition also expressed suggests that Russia will never concerns regarding the government’s tolerate Georgia’s integration with the decision to issue GEL 400 million European economic space. Thus, it is worth of treasury bills on the not clear how the Georgian domestic market next year. When government is going to reconcile two asked by UNM to explain the purpose contradictory foreign policy of the loan, Gharibashvili said that it objectives, especially in light of the economic slowdown. Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 23

RUSSIA AND KAZAKHSTAN CLINCH “ALLIANCE FOR THE 21 CENTURY” Georgiy Voloshi

On November 11, the presidents of coordinate their foreign policy Russia and Kazakhstan, Vladimir Putin initiatives (article 3). and Nursultan Nazarbayev, met in the With the bulk of subsequent articles Russian city of Yekaterinburg within concerning various bilateral the framework of the Tenth Regional partnerships in fields as diverse as oil Cooperation Forum. This bilateral and gas, atomic energy, trade, cultural structure aims to develop closer and scientific cooperation, article 10 of economic and trade relations between the new agreement specifically Russia’s and Kazakhstan’s border mentions the Customs Union and the regions, especially in the context of Common Economic Space formed growing integration ties between the respectively in July 2010 and January two countries. While the general state 2012. Russia and Kazakhstan thus of Russian-Kazakhstani partnership promise to strengthen these two was the major topic of official structures “for the purpose of discussions, this gathering enabled the deepening Eurasian integration based signing of a new bilateral treaty known on the principles of equality, as the Treaty for good-neighborliness voluntariness and mutual benefit and alliance in the 21 century. without infringement upon political Based on an earlier agreement signed sovereignty.” in May 1992 in the wake of the Russia and Kazakhstan also used the collapse of the Soviet Union, this treaty Yekaterinburg forum to conclude reaffirms Russia’s and Kazakhstan’s several sectoral agreements, such as desire to foster relations “built on the Roadmap for increased industrial mutual trust, strategic partnership and cooperation in 2013-2014, a comprehensive cooperation” (article memorandum of understanding 1). Upon recognizing their mutual between their respective Industry respect for state sovereignty and Ministries foreseeing the expansion of territorial integrity (article 2), the two their joint projects as well as a large sides state their intention to avoid gas contract. Overall, the two countries participation in any blocs and alliances remain strategic political and directed against either of them. They economic partners. While their trade also pledge their commitment to turnover grew fourfold within the last Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 24 ten years to reach some US$ 23.8 first and foremost non-tariff barriers, billion in January-December 2012, against his country’s producers. cross-border ties still account for over Contrary to the Russian Statistics 70 percent of this figure. Kazakhstan Agency, Kazakhstani authorities had currently trades with almost 80 previously reported a sharp decrease Russian regions on the basis of some in exports towards Russia and the 200 interregional cooperation rapidly increasing inflow of Russian agreements, with the number of joint- goods. Moreover, Nazarbayev said that ventures having recently surpassed the Eurasian Economic Commission 5,000. lacked impartiality, as it purportedly sought greater decision-making Together with Belarus, Moscow and powers while taking direct orders Astana expect to become the founders from the Kremlin. of the Eurasian Economic Union, an EU-styled economic integration This criticism notwithstanding, it was organization endowed with powerful Nazarbayev himself who suggested supranational institutions and dismantling the Eurasian Economic common legislation. Whereas the Community (EurAsEc), a trade bloc establishment of this bloc is expected created back in 2000 to promote no later than January 2015, its economic cooperation in the post- founding treaty is to be submitted for Soviet space. According to Nazarbayev, signing by the three presidents as the Eurasian Union is due to become early as next May. Despite the core integration framework with a Kazakhstan’s and Belarus’s objections, potential to not only include Russia also expects to promote Kazakhstan’s southern neighbors, political integration, with its high-level Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, but also to officials repetitively declaring that a attract new members, such as Turkey. common legislature would eventually Putin’s vision sounded more cautious: be set up, after the Eurasian Economic as Eurasian integration is still at its Commission already assumed the early stages, the EurAsEc would still be responsibilities of a shared executive useful to maintain close multilateral body. ties with other post-Soviet states whose economies are not strong However, differences among the three enough to integrate into the Customs partners remain and are further likely Union any time soon. to grow, as Russia’s role in their joint integration projects is becoming At present, Russia and Kazakhstan increasingly predominant. Earlier on will attempt to consolidate their October 24 and 25, Putin, Nazarbayev integration achievements, paving the and Lukashenka met in Minsk to way for the Eurasian Union. Despite discuss the launch of the Eurasian his country’s diminished weight in the Union. On this occasion, Kazakhstan’s Customs Union, President Nazarbayev president accused Moscow of is unlikely to change course and practicing discriminatory measures, seems intent to continue to lend his Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 25 support to this ambitious initiative. look more like a mutually beneficial However, Moscow will have to make undertaking than a purely political concessions to both Astana and Minsk alliance entirely dominated by the to secure their continued loyalty and Kremlin. to make their trilateral partnership

KYRGYZSTAN’S DEFENSE COUNCIL DISCUSSES CORRUPTION Arslan Sabyrbekov

On November 4, a meeting of country’s current leadership Kyrgyzstan’s Defense Council declared the fight against took place in the State Residence corruption as one of its priority Ala-Archa. The meeting was challenges and launched the state chaired by the President of the strategy on anti-corruption Kyrgyz Republic Almazbek policies. The implementation of Atambayev and focused on these policies was a top agenda of corruption and the state anti- this year’s meeting of the Defense corruption strategy adopted two Council. years ago. Members of the Defense Council Kyrgyzstan continues to face have unanimously declared that widespread corruption in all corruption remains extremely sectors of the economy and at all prevalent in Kyrgyzstan and that levels of the state apparatus. Mid major efforts have already been and high ranking state officials made to effectively counter this continue to build luxurious challenge. President Atambayev mansions and drive expensive went on to state that “the recent cars while poverty levels among anti-corruption mechanisms have the general population remain shown that high ranking corrupt high and infrastructure is officials are not immune from underfunded. Corruption and responsibility for their years of cronyism and wrongdoings and that now it is clientelistic practices fuel very dangerous to engage in any discontent among the general corruption deals.” public and were one of the major Indeed, Kyrgyzstan recently causes of Kyrgyzstan’s two witnessed waves of arrests of revolutions in 2005 and 2010; high ranking officials, among both resulting in a violent them former Bishkek mayor overthrow of the regime. The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 26

Nariman Tuleev, who was corruption schemes and sentenced to 11 years of underlined the need for a imprisonment and confiscation of systematic approach to the all his properties, the former problem. Minister for Social Development This year’s meeting of the and some mid-level officials. On Defense Council also resulted in November 20, the General several organizational changes. Prosecutor’s Office issued a President Atambayev suggested warrant to detain opposition that the Defense Council and its lawmaker Akhmatbek Keldibekov Secretariat coordinate all the amid an investigation into alleged anti-corruption activities in state abuse of office and financial institutions. He explained that misdeeds while running the State “this way, the Council’s Social Fund and Tax Service Secretariat will be able to ensure several years ago. In turn, a single state policy and eliminate Keldibekov placed a video duplication of functions and statement on the Internet a few actions of anti-corruption hours before his detention, agencies.” The president also denying all the allegations and posited that “any leader not in a terming the investigations position to timely and effectively launched against him “politically implement anti-corruption motivated.” measures in his or her Experts are also divided in their department should resign opinions on whether the arrests immediately.” should mainly be considered a In this regard, Atambayev made a fight against corrupt officials or a number of critical remarks method for repressing the against the Ministry of Education, political opposition. According to noting “the prevailing practice of political analyst Valentin students buying their University Bogatyrev, the country’s seats and paying for their grades. leadership is currently fighting This has led to the result that corruption only among its only around 10 percent of the political opponents, which University graduates in seriously undermines the Kyrgyzstan can be considered legitimacy of the government’s competent experts in their undertakings as well as public respective fields.” Indeed, the support. Johan Engvall of the corrupt education system is Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & creating an entire generation of Silk Road Studies Program also young people striving to become noted that simply arresting some civil servants with the motivation corrupt officials will not result in of enriching themselves through a full destruction of the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 27 November 2013 27 corruption and stealing from the downplay it. Anti-corruption measures public. must indeed be systematic and not a subject of political bargaining or In sum, the participants of the Defense motivation, as put by the recently Council meeting engaged in a fairly imprisoned. honest discussion regarding the scale of the problem and did not try to