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Official Statistics in the Search for Solutions for Living with COVID-19

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Official Statistics in the Search for Solutions for Living with COVID-19 Statistical Journal of the IAOS 36 (2020) 253–278 253 DOI 10.3233/SJI-200671 IOS Press Official statistics in the search for solutions for living with COVID-19 and its consequences1 Len Cooka;∗ and Alistair Grayb aInstitute of Governance and Policy Studies, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand bStatistics Research Associates Limited, New Zealand Abstract. The prolonged existence of COVID-19 will provide national statistical offices with the greatest challenges that they might ever expect. The paper foreshadows the range of influences on the planning of official statistical offices and international organisations. The paper draws on experiences in New Zealand and focuses on aspects which have general applicability in other countries. This paper was finalised on April 25, 2020, and some examples cited will not be relevant given the dynamic situations in most countries, and how knowledge about COVID-19 evolves. The central thrust of the paper is that national statistical offices need to be thinking now about the huge medium- and long-term influences that will shape what they need to do. The screening and surveillance options available need to be relevant for each stage of easing of restrictions initiated to prevent contact. Teams which bring together all the relevant scientific expertise are needed to assess testing strategies at each step. The methodological, technological, and operational challenges will require high levels of public trust in the gathering of information, and confidence in the resulting statistics. This paper provides views on what those challenges might be, at this early stage of living with COVID-19. The fiscal pressures placed on governments will not only make existing programmes vulnerable but may prevent initiatives that might now be critical. Keywords: COVID-19, lockdown, testing, sampling, statistical offices, infection, risk 1. Introduction Less obvious is the nature of the evidence needed to find answers to living in a world where pandemics may be- Even at the end of April 2020, in observing the course come more frequent, and how to recover from the havoc of COVID-19 among countries, people everywhere can caused by COVID-19. Economists, investors, health observe progress amid pitfalls as the world waits for and other service providers as well as governments and advances in medical science to eliminate COVID-19. their citizens always need a public evidence base rele- vant to the environment that they must face. The chal- lenges faced by national statistical offices to support 1In presenting these views, many helpful comments have been such an evidence base were unforeseeable only two received from overseas colleagues who are expert in official statistics, months ago. Actions are needed at national, regional from methodological experts and several economic thinkers from and international levels. The prolonged existence of New Zealand. Without their advice, the paper would not have got to its present form. How that advice has shaped the paper reflects our own COVID-19 means that national statistical offices have limitations. They are Steve Haslett, Thomas Lumley, Roger Mackie, much to gain from working together and sharing expe- Dennis Trewin, Ian Cope, Suzanne Snively, Bill Rosenberg, Girol riences and ideas. In an interview on April 15, 2020, Karacaoglu, John Yeabsley, Hellen Sutch, Brian Easton, Hallgrimur former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown stated that Snorrason, Olaf Ljones, Lars Thygesen, Walter Radermacher, Nick Wilson, Tim Holt, John Pullinger, Susan St John, Gary Dunnett. his fear was that: ∗Corresponding author: Len Cook, Institute of Governance and Policy Studies, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New “while we struggle with the first wave of infection, Zealand. Tel.: +64 4475 7077; E-mail: [email protected]. the foundations for a second or third or fourth are 1874-7655/20/$35.00 c 2020 – IOS Press and the authors. All rights reserved This article is published online with Open Access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (CC BY-NC 4.0). 254 L. Cook and A. Gray / Official statistics in the search for solutions for living with COVID-19 and its consequences being laid, as coronavirus hits developing countries 5. Informing the post-pandemic period after a vac- terrifyingly ill-equipped to suppress it. COVID-19 cine becomes available but with a restructured is taking hold in countries with struggling health open economy that has adjusted to the long-term systems, where some lack running water to wash shifts in domestic and international demand for hands, and where the choice is between risking in- goods and services. This should include changed fection by going to work or going hungry”. modes of interacting and fiscal and incomes poli- cies adapted to increasing the share of current re- Official statistics and statistical thinking are key to sources dedicated to the protecting the health and the evidence base governments and their citizens need, environment of people at a global level. in order to balance seemingly competing dimensions of their welfare. To live with COVID-19, the health of The alignment of screening strategies with the phases of economic recovery is a key element of this paper. In populations and the economic capability of countries the fourth month of the global COVID-19 pandemic, we have become intertwined on a scale that is far outside still have uncertainty about the potential for infection, that for which our information systems, institutional and its transmission, yet also need to enable people to and managerial capability, supply chains and connec- engage in a wide range of situations while it remains tivity have been designed. Climate change must still a threat. At each of these five stages above, the strate- be faced, and the policy reactions to COVID-19 need gies for screening the population will need to reflect the to be tested for their ability to mitigate or further ex- personal and community risks involved, and how far acerbate its impact. More immediately, the capacity to the knowledge we have about COVID-19 has evolved, effectively screen for the re-emergence of COVID-19 and the adaptability of health services has increased. at a population level will determine the steadiness and The strengths and limitations of screening options in nature of the pathway for opening economic activity Section 3 extensive. As a centre of excellence in statis- again. tical sampling methods, official statisticians can play Much deep consideration on what this means for of- a role with others in ensuring that screening resources ficial statistics will inevitably evolve over the next year, are used to a maximum effect at each stage. When there and in this paper, I speculate on a possible pathway are fewer who must have top priority in screening be- from what we know now. Five distinct phases have rele- cause of their immediate health risks, or their potential vance for planning now, but the speed with which coun- to infect others, at a time when testing capacity grows, tries move between them is likely to vary considerably. then the capacity for various forms of population level 2 These phases are: screening will increase. 1. Managing the pandemic (currently) so that its ef- There will be new demands placed on information fects do not overwhelm the health system. about health services, government economic leadership, 2. Informing policy during the transition period as social cohesion and community solidarity, and the reach restrictions are gradually lifted e.g. in late April of redistributive programmes. Statistics must inform far 2020, schools will soon be returning in Denmark reaching policy change and enable social services and and Norway, and businesses that do not involve support for business to be directed to where they are close personal interaction reopen in New Zealand. most needed. Statisticians cannot be passive in fore- 3. Carrying out economic and social activities in seeing and providing leadership or enabling the exper- the immediate post-quarantine period where the tise of others to bring professional insights and anal- capacity to detect and manage the re-emergence yses. Environmental impacts must be understood, in of COVID-19 and a potential second wave will be ways that have consistency with other countries. The a priority to ensure that the health system is not statistical infrastructure and methodological expertise overwhelmed. in statistical offices has become an even more vital na- 4. Managing the domestic economy in the absence of tional resource. Statistical offices need a good under- international visitors and adjusting to lower levels standing of where they need to focus beyond enabling of demand for many services and lower levels of the large array of existing sources to continue in the international trade, employment and investment. face of COVID-19. We are already seeing how new information types have become critical for informing government decisions. Even in lockdown, changes that 2Adapted from suggestion by Dennis Trewin in commenting on will affect the economy and society long after COVID- early draft of paper. 19 has disappeared are occurring. Having high qual- L. Cook and A. Gray / Official statistics in the search for solutions for living with COVID-19 and its consequences 255 ity broadband access available in most parts of New governments are placed in through lockdowns. Section Zealand has enabled an unprecedented level of ingenu- four focuses on the official statistical mix, and how it ity in maintaining connections that have importance for will have to respond to the aftermath of COVID-19. both economic and social activity. Because the policy context varies across countries, sec- The most immediate focus for official statistics oc- tion five looks at the range of issues that government’s curs on several fronts. As one of the centres of exper- similar to that in New Zealand might face, as well as tise in statistical methods for measuring populations, those that were under serious consideration during the the experts within statistical offices must expect to be- global finance crises of the 1980s and then a decade come involved in measurement issues outside the nor- ago.
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