QUARTERLY UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 16 FEBRUARY–15 MAY 2009 COMPILED BY MICHELE K. ESPOSITO The Quarterly Update is a summary of bilateral, multilateral, regional, and international events affecting the Palestinians and the future of the peace process. More than 100 print, wire, television, and online sources providing U.S., Israeli, Arab, and international independent and government coverage of unfolding events are surveyed to compile the Quarterly Update. The most relevant sources are cited in JPS’s Chronology section, which tracks events day by day. THE PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI CONFLICT tons and severely limited Palestinian access to Jerusalem and the Jordan Valley. As of This quarter, the Israeli and Palestinian 2/15, at least 7,475 Palestinians (including focus was on the transition to new Israeli 49 Israeli Arabs and 19 unidentified Arab and U.S. administrations. Israeli elections cross-border infiltrators), 1,086 Israelis (in- on 2/10/09 had placed Kadima and Likud cluding 345 IDF soldiers and security per- within 1 seat of each other in the Knes- sonnel, 213 settlers, 528 civilians), and 64 set, leaving it up to Israeli pres. Shimon foreign nationals (including 2 British suicide Peres to choose either Likud’s Benjamin Ne- bombers) had been killed since the start of tanyahu or Kadima’s Tzipi Livni to form a the al-Aqsa intifada on 9/28/00. new government, a matter still undecided as the quarter opened. U.S. Pres. Barack Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire Talks Obama, sworn in on 1/20/09, had promised As the quarter opened, Israeli-Palestinian a fundamental readjustment in how the U.S. relations were largely on hold while Israel’s engaged the Middle East, including an early, Peres began consultations to decide whether active role in the peace process. he would authorize Likud or Kadima to On the ground, Gazans were grappling build a coalition. Egypt, meanwhile, contin- with the massive fallout from Israel’s 23-day ued efforts to mediate a long-term cease-fire assault on Gaza, Operation Cast Lead (OCL), between Hamas and the outgoing Israeli which had ended a month before (see Quar- administration of Ehud Olmert; both had terly Update in JPS 151), and were entering declared independent unilateral cease-fires their 21st month under the near-total Israeli ending OCL on 1/18, and Hamas had fired blockade imposed after Hamas’s takeover of about 50 rockets and mortars in the month the Strip in 6/07. Tough Israeli limits on im- since then (a “daily dribble,” which Israeli ports, which allowed enough to prevent a DM Ehud Barak had dismissed in a 2/16 in- humanitarian crisis but not enough to meet terview with the Jewish Telegraphic Agency Gazans’ basic needs, greatly complicated re- as “nothing more than a pathetic attempt pairs and essential services provision; entry by Hamas to show it’s still around”). Israel’s and exit of individuals was almost entirely chief negotiator Amos Gilad returned (ca. banned. Moderate cross-border violence 2/16) to Cairo for another round of talks continued, raising concerns that serious vi- with Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Sulay- olence could erupt anew. In the West Bank, man on a cease-fire plus a prisoner exchange governed by the Fatah-led Palestinian Au- that would include the release of captured thority (PA) under Pres. Mahmud Abbas, IDF soldier Gilad Shalit, held by Hamas since violence was low, though the Israel De- 6/06. Egypt and Hamas had long advocated fense Forces (IDF) continued near-nightly keeping the 2 sets of talks separate, but arrest raids and house searches, and strict Olmert was eager to win Shalit’s release be- restrictions on Palestinian movement (more fore he left office to end his premiership on than 600 roadblocks and checkpoints) that a high note. Gilad came away from the Cairo effectively divided the territory into 3 can- meetings with separate Egyptian-brokered Journal of Palestine Studies Vol. XXXVIII, No. 4 (Summer 2009), pp. 138–173, ISSN 0377-919X, electronic ISSN 1533-8614. C ! 2009 by the Institute for Palestine Studies. All rights reserved. Please direct all requests for permission to photocopy or reproduce article content through the University of California Press’s Rights and Permissions website, at http://www.ucpressjournals.com/reprintInfo.asp. DOI: jps.2009.XXXVIII.4.138. QUARTERLY UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 139 offers from Hamas for a cease-fire and a pris- forts to restore the administrative branch of oner exchange trading Shalit for hundreds of the Hamas terror organization in [the West Hamas prisoners. When 4 names of Hamas Bank].” At the same time, an Israeli Jus- prisoners previously opposed by Israel were tice Min. committee opened (3/18) debate still on the list, the Israeli cabinet rejected to limit privileges (e.g., visitation, phone (2/18) both offers out of hand, stating for calls, study groups) of Hamas prisoners in the first time that a cease-fire agreement Israel. Hamas did not issue a new offer, and and any opening of Gaza’s borders would the Olmert administration ended without be contingent upon Shalit’s release, dim- further Cairo talks. ming Hamas’s hopes, expressed last quarter Meanwhile, the U.S., NATO, and vari- (see Quarterly Update in JPS 151), that a ous European states, which last quarter had deal for the import of some cement and given Israel vague pledges to take serious steel for reconstruction might be imminent. steps to curb smuggling of weapons into When Gilad warned publicly that Israel was Gaza in order to secure Israel’s unilateral jeopardizing its relationship with Egypt by halt to OCL (see Quarterly Update in JPS pressing its demands, calling the govern- 151), met in London on 3/13 to discuss de- ment’s stance “simply madness,” Olmert tails. At the close of the meeting, Britain, reprimanded (2/18) and then fired (2/23) Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, him when he refused to retract the state- Netherlands, Norway, and the U.S. agreed to ment. Gilad was reinstated (2/25) after he a “program of action” that promoted greater made a public apology. cooperation and coordination on informa- A new round of talks resumed in Cairo tion and intelligence sharing to monitor ca. 3/15, led on Israel’s side by Shin Bet smuggling networks, using diplomatic pres- chief Yuval Diskin and veteran prisoner re- sure against countries that aid Hamas, and lease negotiator Ofer Dekel, but the men re- carrying out military and law enforcement turned (3/16) after a day stating that Hamas activities (including interdicting suspect had hardened its positions. In his 3/17 cab- ships at sea, but not requiring use of force inet session to brief the government and to do so). Injecting a sense of urgency, Shin the public on the Cairo talks, Olmert stated Bet chief Diskin claimed (3/29) that Pales- that Israel had agreed to release about 320 tinians had smuggled 22 tons of explosives, of 450 prisoners sought by Hamas and had 45 tons of “raw materials” for producing offered proposals to deport others or substi- bombs, 100s of mortars, 10s of rockets, tute alternative names, but that Hamas had and 10s of antitank and anti-aircraft rounds insisted on the release of prisoners Israel into Gaza since the 1/18 cease-fire, blam- deemed too dangerous to be freed, includ- ing lax Egyptian security along the Rafah ing Abdallah Barghouti (a ranking Hamas border. military official and explosives expert, sen- tenced to 67 consecutive life sentences for Clinton and Mitchell Tours building bombs used in suicide operations) Meanwhile, the Obama administration and Hasan Salameh (serving 48 consecutive was eager to demonstrate an active engage- life sentences for his role in planning sui- ment in the peace process and to stake out cide attacks). Barring a last-minute change its basic positions on the Middle East, even of heart by Hamas, Olmert conceded that no while it reserved full engagement until it prisoner exchange deal to free Shalit would could complete top-down reviews of ex- be reached before he left office. isting U.S. policy on the Middle East and In apparent efforts to pressure Hamas until a new Israeli government was in place. into changing its position in the prisoner To this end, Obama dispatched newly ap- release/cease-fire talks, Egypt—for only the pointed Secy. of State Hillary Clinton on her second time since 6/06 (see Quarterly Up- first tour of the region (2/28–3/4) and spe- date in JPS 151)—halted and searched (3/17) cial envoy George Mitchell on his second the Hamas delegation on its return to Gaza tour (2/26–3/2). Both trips were billed more through the Rafah crossing, barring 2 mem- as listening tours aimed at demonstrating a bers from crossing with night-vision goggles desire for deep involvement in the region and $900,000 in cash in Euros and dollars. while refraining from pressing initiatives at Israel then launched (3/18) late-night incur- this stage while Israeli coalition talks were sions into Hebron, Nablus, Ramallah, and under way. Nonetheless, the U.S. was clear Zatara near Bethlehem to raid and search about its baselines. Mitchell reportedly em- the homes of 8 senior figures affiliated with phasized in meetings with Netanyahu (2/26) Hamas, arresting them for their “ongoing ef- and Abbas (2/27) U.S. support for a 2-state 140 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES solution and a halt to settlement expan- ing 178 Palestinians), though a number of sion in keeping with the road map, while tent camps also remained.