Environmental Engineering Newsletter 9 Sept

ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING NEWSLETTER 9 SEPT. 2013 Please be aware any Newsletter URL ending in 020701.pdf and 020610.pdf are available for downloading only during the six days following the date of the edition. If you need older URLs contact George at [email protected]. Please Note: This newsletter contains articles that offer differing points of view regarding climate change, energy and other environmental issues. Any opinions expressed in this publication are the responses of the readers alone and do not represent the positions of the Environmental Engineering Division or the ASME. George Holliday

This week's edition includes: 1) ENVIRONMENT – A. STATE OF TEXAS TO GAUGE POLLUTION IN AIR ALONG FREEWAYS By Matthew Tresaugue The traffic is bad in Houston. That’s clear to anyone who drives in this congested metropolis. What isn’t known is how all those idling cars and trucks affect the health of those living near the freeways. Starting in January, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality will begin measuring air pollution levels along a busy stretch of U.S. 59 in southwest Houston. The federal government required the monitors, which will provide the state with its first data on the public health risks within about 160 feet of a major roadway. “People move to areas near major thoroughfares to get around easier, but we haven’t paid attention to how that impacts our health,” said Elena Craft, a health scientist for the Environmental Defense Fund. “This is a good step forward.” The eight-county Houston region is already one of the most heavily monitored areas in the country for air pollution, particularly ozone, or smog. But its network of 27 monitoring stations has not included one near a freeway because the system is intended to measure air quality across the region, not just for specific neighborhoods. That changed in March when federal regulators ordered the largest cities across the country to install roadside monitors for nitrogen dioxide, a smog-forming pollutant released from tailpipes. The Environmental Protection Agency said studies have measured concentrations of the gas to be as much as 100 times greater near major roadways than away from them. Scientists, meanwhile, have linked the pollutant to asthma and other lung ailments, especially among children and the elderly. Broad implications The EPA will require two monitors in Houston. A state spokesman said the first will be installed along U.S. 59 near the Westpark Tollway. The stretch of U.S. 59 between Loop 610 and the Sam Houston Tollway is Harris County’s ninth-most congested, according to the state’s most recent roadway rankings. “It’s a good location because of the high traffic and it’s near residences, and it fills a data gap,” said Loren Raun, a Rice University statistician who specializes in the environment and public health. State regulators have not picked a second site, but Raun suggested the Interstate 45 corridor near downtown. Her research with Katherine Ensor, a professor of statistics at Rice, has shown the area has increases in heart attacks and asthma episodes when smog levels rise. Craft, of the Environmental Defense Fund, foresees broad implications if the new monitoring reveals higher pollution levels near freeways. For example, local officials should consider whether to allow houses, apartments and schools to be built near freeways. “It will present a new challenge to the region,” she said. Asthmatics take notice Nationwide, about 48 million people live within 300 feet of a highway, railroad or airport, the EPA said. One of them is 19-yearold Nathaniel Narango, whose family moved into an apartment about a block from U.S. 59 in southwest Houston two years ago. Narango, who suffers from asthma, said the new air pollution monitors would provide important information. “I think we should be aware if something is affecting the air quality,” he said. “We need to let people know, so they can make an informed decision about living here.” Reporter Manuella Libardi contributed to this report. matthew.tresaugue @chron.com twitter.com/mtresaugue

B. MONIZ APPOINTS PAULA GANT TO OVERSEE OIL, GAS ISSUES AT ENERGY DEPT. Paula Gant has been picked by Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz as the next deputy assistant secretary for oil and natural gas. Gant, who has held positions in Duke Energy and the American Gas Association, will oversee the department's hydraulic fracturing studies. Gant is taking the position "in an exciting time, with the responsible development of our abundant unconventional natural gas resources yielding tremendous value for American homes and businesses," said Dave McCurdy, AGA's president and CEO http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/08/27/new‐oil‐and‐gas‐chief‐named‐at‐energy‐ department/?shared=email&msg=fail

C. CARBON MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY CONFERENCE 2013 October 21-23, 2013 Hilton Alexandria Old Town Alexandria, VA

This foundational conference , sponsored by the eight major engineering societies (ASME, AIChE, IEEE, ASCE, TMS, SME, SPE and AIST), draws practiced professionals from all engineering disciplines to share their expertise and provide perspective on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to changing climate. The conference will focus on engineering perspectives regarding technologies, strategies, policies, management systems, uncertainties, and metrics for evaluating alternatives. Gain engineering expertise, experience and perspectives on technologies, strategies, policies, management systems, metrics, and other key issues. Discover novel approaches and new technologies that are instrumental to technical, economic and social advancements in carbon management. Through robust scheduled sessions, well-known speakers from leading companies and academic institutions, co-located workshops, and networking opportunities, this year's program will address 20+ topics under these four themes: • Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage • Carbon Management Pathways from Electricity Generation to End User • Potentially Game-Changing Technology and Evaluation • Engineering Challenges and Solutions for Adaptation to Climate Change To view the technical program, visit http://fscarbonmanagement.org/content/technical-program Register today and be part of the one conference focused on the engineering perspectives critical to meeting the challenge of greenhouse gas emissions. For more information or to register, please visit us at http://fscarbonmanagement.org/content/cmtc-2013 Arnold Feldman

D. ASME is planning to develop an annual large scale Energy Conference. Its first one is being planned for March 17–19, 2014 in San Diego and will focus on fracking. Arnold Feldman

E. EED MEETING ANNOUNCEMENT The Environmental Engineering Division (EED) is planning two meetings for all its members who are able to attend, one on the East Coast and one on the West Coast.

The East Coast meeting will be held in conjunction with the Carbon Management Technology Conference (CMTC), which will take place at the Hilton Alexandria Old Town in Alexandria, VA, October 21-23. The EED meeting will be held the afternoon of Tuesday, October 22, from 1PM -3PM.

The West Coast meeting will be held during IMECE 2013 in San Diego, CA, November 15-21. The specific date and time have not yet been set.

At both meetings, we will discuss the recent EED member survey, the revised Division By- Laws, and interest in forming and participating in new technical committees identified as being of interest in the survey. EED members who wish to attend the Division meeting will not be required to register for either conference, although there are certainly benefits to attending these conferences if you are able.

For more information on the EED meetings contact:

 East Coast: Arnie Feldman, EED ViceChair, 267-880-2325, [email protected]  West Coast: Andy Miller, EED Chair, 213-244-1809, [email protected]

F. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE CCS WORKSHOP AT CMTC 2013 You are invited to participate in a workshop titled CCS/CCUS Overview: What It Is and What Are Its Implications? The workshop is sponsored by the Global CCS Institute in collaboration with the 2013 Carbon Management Technology Conference. It will be held at the Hilton Alexandria Old Town in Alexandria, VA on Sunday, October 20, 2013, and is geared to individuals who are involved in carbon dioxide management but who may not be an expert in all aspects. Registration for this workshop is free: https://chenected.wufoo.com/forms/registration- ccsccus-overview-workshop/ and a networking reception will be held for all attendees after the completion of the workshop. For those who wish to further enhance their knowledge of carbon management we encourage you to also attend the Carbon Management Technology Conference (CMTC 2013), sponsored by AIChE, ASME, ASCE, IEEE, AIST, SPE, TMS, and SME which begins on Monday October 21. For more information visit the website: http://www.fscarbonmanagement.org/content/cmtc-2013

2) HEALTH – A. INVASIVE MOSQUITO - USA (02): (CALIFORNIA) A ProMED-mail post ProMED-mail is a program of the International Society for Infectious Diseases

Date: Fri 23 Aug 2013 Source: San Mateo Patch [edited]

State officials confirmed Friday [23 Aug 2013] a yellow fever mosquito [_Aedes aegypti_], which can transmit a number of viruses including yellow fever, was found in San Mateo County. The last time a yellow fever mosquito was confirmed in San Mateo County was in 1979. http://www.eandp-environment.net/Health/Health020701.pdf

3) SAFETY – A. FEDERAL REGULATORS TO TRACK OFFSHORE ACCIDENT NEAR-MISSES The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement and the Bureau of Transportation Statistics vowed to develop an online confidential reporting system to monitor near-miss incidents to prevent bigger safety problems in offshore oil and natural gas facilities. The reporting system is intended to reduce injuries as well as mitigate potential environmental repercussions of accidents in offshore operations. http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/08/28/feds-to-collect-info-on-near-misses-offshore/

B. ON-THE-JOB DEATH TOLL DECLINES IN U.S., JUMPS IN TEXAS August 23, 2013 By L.M. Sixel, Fewer workers died on the job last year across the nation, but that wasn't the case in Texas. On-the-job fatalities jumped nearly 23 percent across the state last year, according to preliminary data released Thursday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nearly all of the increase came from a spike in the number of transportation-related deaths. Last year, 258 workers - a group that includes long-distance truckers as well as sales representatives going to client meetings - died in transportation-related incidents. That's up from 168 a year earlier. Overall, Texas lost 531 workers in 2012, compared with 433 workers the previous year, the agency reported. "It's serious," said John Greeley, a spokesman for the Texas Department of Insurance, Division of Workers' Compensation, in Austin. "It's very serious." The Bureau of Labor Statistics sent the preliminary data to the individual states for review. In Texas, the Insurance Department is responsible for collecting individual death certificates when workers die on the job and monitoring newspapers and other sources for reports of fatal accidents. The agency also uses the detailed data to tailor health and safety programs for companies and workers in Texas, Greeley said. In Texas, the construction industry recorded the most deaths. The preliminary data show 105 construction workers died on the job in 2012, compared with 83 during the previous year. The transportation and warehousing industry had 96 fatalities last year, while mining reported 66 deaths. Nationwide, 4,383 workers lost their lives in 2012, compared with 4,693 the previous year, the agency reported. Transportation-related fatalities were highest, followed by violence at work. Michael Cunningham, executive director of the Texas Building & Construction Trades Council for the AFL-CIO in Austin, hasn't seen the data but suspects a sizable portion of the increase comes from the surge in oil and gas exploration and production in Texas. The work involves a lot of heavy vehicles, and recent proposals to convert paved roads to gravel is worrisome, he said. "We need to do something to make it safer," Cunningham said. While gravel roads require drivers to slow down, if they're not maintained properly, they're dangerous when it rains because of the "washboards" that form. It's easy to lose control, said Cunningham, who has had a lot of experience driving heavy vehicles over gravel. Doug Watson, director of safety services for AGC Houston, has been working with the Bureau of Labor Statistics' data going back about a decade to design better safety programs. Watson, whose group is part of the Associated General Contractors of America, said fatalities for commercial builders have been falling even though work is picking up because of the better economy. He attributes the dip to a sharper focus on safety on the part of industry players as well as government regulators. In May, AGC hosted a "national stand down day" in which contractors in Texas were asked to shut down for at least an hour and have sessions on how to avoid "trips and slips," ladder safety and teaching proper safety guidelines when working around electricity. It was so successful that federal regulars hosted a similar event earlier this month, Watson said. He said sessions like that, combined with association visits to commercial contractors, are helping to get the word out about the importance of working safely. Job deaths tick up in Texas New data show on-the-job deaths rose in Texas, while dipping nationally. Among the preliminary findings for 2012: U.S., overall: 4,383 deaths, down from 4,693 in 2011 Texas, overall: 531 deaths, up from 433 in 2011 Texas, construction industry: 105 deaths, up from 83 in 2011. Texas, transportation and warehousing industry: 96 deaths, up from 75 in 2011 Texas, mining industry: 66 deaths, up from 41 in 2011. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

C. EUROCOPTER'S SUPER PUMA SET TO RESUME FLIGHTS Influential Energy Group Calls for Grounding in U.K. North Sea to Be Lifted

Eurocopter Super Puma helicopters were set to resume flying to oil and gas platforms in the U.K. portion of the North Sea on Friday after an influential industry group called for an end to their six-day grounding following a fatal crash last week off the north coast of Scotland. http://www.eandp‐environment.net/Safety/Safety020701.pdf

D. OFFSHORE WORK NEEDS ‘STRONG REGULATOR’ By Jennifer A. Dlouhy WASHINGTON — Recent accidents at offshore oil and gas facilities highlight the risks of producing energy on the shallow continental shelf as well as the Gulf of Mexico’s deepest frontiers, a departing top U.S. regulator said Friday. The incidents include the evacuation of 44 workers after a natural gas well exploded in July and a production platform fire last November that killed three workers from the Philippines. Both episodes happened at older, established facilities in shallow waters — unlike the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster that was sparked by the blowout of an exploratory well under a mile of water. The accidents are a fresh reminder that offshore regulators and the energy industry need to remain vigilant both close to shore and in deep water, James Watson said in an interview as he ends his one-year stint directing the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. After the 2010 disaster, new mandates for emergency equipment, well designs and testing focused mostly on deep-water activities, although some changes, including a push for more robust modeling of worst-case scenarios, applied widely across the outer continental shelf. “The majority of our attention was on improving the safety of deep-water operations,” Watson said, but “as the recent tragedies show, all offshore operations carry a degree of risk.” Whatever the depth, “the offshore oil and gas industry is a risky activity,” he added. “That’s why you need a strong regulator. That’s why the industry needs to spend as much time — and, quite frankly, money — doing all the things that are necessary for safety at all levels at all times.” Watson’s successor, former Coast Guard Vice Adm. Brian Salerno, is assuming control over the agency as it readies new rules for offshore production systems and emergency equipment used to safeguard coastal drilling. Arctic challenge Salerno and the 3-yearold safety bureau — established in a reorganization after the Deepwater Horizon disaster — have other big challenges ahead. Chief among them: overseeing a new era of oil exploration in U.S. Arctic waters north of Alaska. Shell Oil Co. partially drilled two exploratory wells in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas last year, decades after the last wells were bored in shallow U.S. Arctic waters. Although Shell is taking a timeout during the summer drilling season while its drilling vessels are repaired, it could renew the search next year. ConocoPhillips and Statoil also hold leases to drill in the region. In those Arctic waters, energy companies are working without the benefit of the infrastructure and experience built up over decades of oil development in the Gulf of Mexico, “so the government role becomes even more of a factor,” Watson said. The Interior Department is working to develop formal standards for Arctic oil and gas development. For now, some potential obligations — like Shell’s decision to build an oil containment system geared for the area — have not been standardized or clarified. Next job Watson is set to take over as president and chief operating officer for the Americas division of the maritime classification society ABS. During his tenure at the agency, the retired Coast Guard admiral presided over the implementation of broad new rules requiring oil and gas companies to holistically assess andmitigate risks offshore and then subject the resulting safety programs to regular audits. The oil industry and its allies on Capitol Hill have had a relatively warm relationship with Watson. Industry complaints of slow drilling permit processing times after the 2010 spill have been muted. “Coming in, there was a lot of criticism about things that took a long time, like permitting, and uncertainty about whether we were going to be able to handle the work we had to do,” Watson said. “Frankly, I haven’t heard those concerns and critics as much lately.” “The industry is actually doing pretty well,” he added, “and I feel that it is safer, cleaner, and they really look to (the agency) when they want to know what they can do to improve.”[email protected] twitter.com/jendlouhyhc

4. TRANSPORTATION – A. TEXAS COURT UPHOLDS RULING ON RIGHT OF WAY FOR KEYSTONE XL PIPELINE TransCanada can condemn farm land in Texas for the right of way for its Keystone XL pipeline, a Texas appeals court ruled, upholding a decision from a lower court. Landowner Julia Trigg Crawford claimed the company infringed on her property rights and that the pipeline could damage Caddo Indian artifacts. http://www.fortmilltimes.com/2013/08/27/2917334/appeals‐court‐condemnation‐for.html

B. SUPPORTERS OF KEYSTONE XL PIPELINE CRITICIZE SLOW PROJECT REVIEW Supporters of the planned cross-border Keystone XL pipeline expressed frustration over the State Department's lingering review of public comments submitted for the project, which would bring crude oil from Canada all the way down to refineries in the southern states. "We cannot miss this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to grow our economy, secure our energy independence and reduce our oil imports from countries that do not share our values," said Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., one of several senators supporting the project. President Barack Obama has promised to consider the project's environmental footprint in deciding whether to approve the pipeline. http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2013/08/30/Tit-for-tat-claims-on- Keystone-XL/UPI-45061377859814/

COMMENTS: A. THE WEEK THAT WAS: 2013-08-31 (AUG. 31, 2013) By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) ################################################### Distortion of Science: The Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons published an article by Richard Lindzen, MIT Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, emeritus, explaining how the climate establishment has distorted science to serve political purposes. Among other points, Lindzen states climate science has become a source of authority rather than a mode of inquiry. “The real utility of science stems from the latter; the political utility from the former.” He lists several features politicized science including: 1) powerful advocacy groups claiming morality and superior wisdom; 2) simplistic depictions of the science; 3) events claimed to promote a sense of urgency; 4) scientists flattered by the public attention and 5) scientists eager to meet the public demand. In his discussion of climate science, especially that produced by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Lindzen produces two graphs of surface temperature increases and challenges the readers to identify which period the IPCC claims is caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), and which one is largely natural. One graph covers the period 1895-1946 and the other covers the period 1957-2008. The IPCC and the climate establishment declare that the latter period is significant, but, as Lindzen shows, the difference is trivial. The data provide no basis for the IPCC claims of Catastrophic Anthropogenic (human caused) Global warming (CAGW). In what may be a complete definition of the climate establishment, Lindzen describes how scientists, advocates, and politicians benefit from each other’s claims and cites other examples of the politicization of science, which have been used to expand governmental power. In the end, both society and science suffer from such authoritarian expansions. Please see links under Challenging the Orthodoxy. ***************** Model Over estimates: As posted by Judith Curry, in its Opinion & Comment section Nature Climate Change published a paper by three members of the climate establishment comparing observed surface warming with the results of 117 model runs of 37 models. The periods cover the last 20 years and the last 15 years. The authors write that for the 20 year period the models over-estimated decadal surface warming by more than 2 times and that for the 15 year period the models over-estimated decadal surface warming by more than 4 times. They state: “[S]uch an inconsistency is only expected to occur by chance once in 500 years, if 20-year periods are considered statistically independent.” The results are not surprising for those who have questioned IPCC claims. What is surprising is that the study was reported by members of the IPCC climate establishment and that a study questioning climate modeling was published by Nature Climate Change. Would the journal publish a similar study submitted by a scientist skeptical of the IPCC and its models? The paper states: “In conclusion, we reject the null hypothesis that the observed and model mean trends are equal at the 10% level.” The theoretical physicist Richard Feynman may have found such statements strange, at best. As shown in the videos of some of his famous lectures, Feynman considered a hypothesis to be a guess that must be tested against all relevant data from experiments and observations. In this instance, the hypothesis would be there exists a close association between model results and observations. If the hypothesis fails testing, the null is accepted. There is no close association between model results and observations. The quote is another example how the IPCC climate establishment is distorting science. Please see links under Problems in the Orthodoxy. ***************** The Pause: Nature published a study claiming the pause in global warming is being caused by ocean cooling, namely in increase in La Niñas, during which Pacific Ocean surfaces are cooler compared with its opposite sister, El Niños, during which Pacific Ocean surfaces are warmer. These occurrences are part of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Of course, many in the climate establishment quickly picked this up as a compelling explanation for the pause. This is doubly rich. Professor Bob Carter, a co-editor of the NIPCC reports, was a co-author of a paper on the frequency of El Niños influencing surface warming. The climate establishment ignored such suggestions. Now it finds it convenient to embrace the cooling effect, but not the warming effect. A second richness comes from the current claims by some in the climate establishment that the warming is hiding in the deep ocean. A warming of the atmosphere, which is not occurring, passes to the deep oceans even though the surface of the vast Pacific Ocean is cooling! On her web site, Judith Curry politely discusses some of the weaknesses in the study including that one must accept the assumption that climate models are useful for untangling natural from human causes of climate change. Further, she states that if one accepts the reasoning, one must accept the corollary that the PDO was a major and likely dominant cause of the warming in the last quarter of the 20thcentury. One of the authors of the study responded to such criticism by stating that the IPCC conclusion applies to centennial warming from 1880. This is a rather unusually reading of the meaning of the statements in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) with clearly refer to the last half of the 20thcentury. Will the upcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) explain climate change since 1880? On his web site, Luboš Motl dismisses the explanations of the pause, and points out that the climate establishment has frequently claimed that small changes in global mean temperature are important and predictable, which they are not. John Brignell suggests that the pause started when independent researchers, who understand such matters, started to question the collection and processing of the data. Please see links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Problems in the Orthodoxy. ***************** Greenland: Using radar images gathered over decades by NASA, and others, international researchers discovered a large canyon in Greenland under the ice, which is up to 2 miles (3km) thick. Specifics are not yet clearly reported, but the canyon runs roughly from north-central Greenland to the northwest coast. According to reports, the canyon is at least 470 miles long (800km), six miles (9.6km) across at its widest, and up to 2,600 feet deep (780km) –reaching its widest and deepest points near the coast. The Grand Canyon, by comparison, is 277 miles long, 18 miles wide and 6,000 feet deep. As some of the reports state, the weight of the ice has forced the center of Greenland to about 650 feet (200m) below sea level. Except for along the coasts, Greenland is large bowl of ice, formed by tall mountains with few openings to the sea. What occurs on the coast does not reflect what occurs in the interior, which has an average altitude of about 7000 feet (2130m). In 1888, Fridtjof Nansen led a team of four Norwegians and two mountain Lapps on a ski trip crossing southern Greenland from east to west at about 64 deg. North latitude. He exposed many myths about Greenland, including one that the center of the island is warm and free of ice. It is amazing that many articles on Greenland and its potential contributions to sea level rise ignore 120 year old knowledge about its geography. Hopefully, the new geographic mapping will help reduce such ignorance. Please see links under Changing Earth. ***************** False Precision: On her web site, Judith Curry discusses an interesting paper published in a journal of the American Statistical Society on the topic of overconfidence and false (over) precision. She uses examples from the IPCC to illustrate some important points and to explain the difference in the precision of weather forecasters compared with the false (over) precision of climate modelers. Please see link under Seeking a Common Ground. ***************** Wildfires: In the US, the Climate Establishment has changed the name of forest fires to wildfires, giving a false sense of urgency to do something. TWTW reader Clyde Spencer provided a link to the National Interagency Fire Center, which reports the number of fires and the total acres burned to date for each year since 2004. As of Aug 30, 2013 there were 34,256 fires and with 3,784,499 acres burned. This are well below the ten year average to date of 54,910 fires and 5,950,332 acres burned. Also for both categories, 2013 is below every year since 2004. One wonders if there may be an error in the tables that are updated daily. Please see link under Seeking a Common Ground. ***************** http://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2013/TWTW%208-31-13%20Final%202.pdf B. RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS THROUGHOUT NORTHEAST INDIA: AD 1871-2008 (27 AUG 2013)

Reference Jain, S.K., Kumar, V. and Saharia, M. 2013. Analysis of rainfall and temperature trends in northeast India. International Journal of Climatology 33: 968-978. Climate alarmists unabashedly claim that, over the past century or so, the Earth experienced a warming that was unprecedented over the pastmillennium or more; and they suggest that a warming of this magnitude should significantly impact global precipitation, increasing it in general, but decreasing it in certain specific places. Hence, it is of great interest to learn what occurred in this regard over the Little Ice Age-to-Current Warm Period transition in various parts of the world. Noting that several investigators have concluded that both the trend and magnitude of warming over the Indian subcontinent throughout the past century "is broadly consistent with the global trend and magnitude (Pant and Kumar, 1997; Arora et al., 2005; Dash et al., 2007)," Jain et al. (2013) set out to search for concurrent changes in precipitation that may have occurred in northeast India over the period 1871-2008 within four subdivisions of Northeast India based on data obtained at 30 different rainfall stations. The authors report that, overall, no clear pattern for rainfall for the Northeast Region of India has emerged, either spatially or temporally; and they thus say that "one can conclude that the rainfall series for this region for the period 1871-2008 does not have any significant trend." In addition, they report that "several studies relating to [the] changing pattern of rainfall over India observed that there is no clear trend of increase or decrease in average rainfall over the [entire] country," citing the studies of Mooley and Parthasarathy (1984), Thapliyal and Kulshrestha (1991), Lal (2001) and Kumar et al. (2010). In a sizeable region of the world (India) that warmed in a way that was "broadly consistent with the global trend and magnitude" over the Little Ice Age-to-Current Warm Period transition, there was no sign of any significant change in precipitation that might otherwise have been attributed to global warming, which finding stands in stark contrast to the climate-model-based mantra of the world's climate alarmists. Additional References Arora, M., Goel, N.K. and Singh, P. 2005. Evaluation of temperature trends over India. Hydrological Sciences Journal 50: 81-93. Dash, S.K., Jenamani, R.K., Kalsi, S.R. and Panda, S.K. 2007. Some evidence of climate change in twentieth-century India. Climatic Change 85: 299-321. Kumar, V., Jain, S.K. and Singh, Y. 2010. Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India. Hydrological Sciences Journal 55: 484-496. Lal, M. 2001. Climatic change - implications for India's water resources. Journal of Indian Water Resource Society 21: 101-119. Mooley, D.A. and Parthasarthy, B. 1984. Fluctuations of all India summer monsoon rainfall during 1871-1978. Climatic Change 6: 287-301. Pant, G.B. and Kumar, K.R. 1997. Climates of South Asia. Wiley, Chichester, United Kingdom. Thapliyal, V. and Kulshrestha, S.M. 1991. Decadal changes and trends over India. Mausam 42: 333-338.

C. THE MULTIPLE IMPACTS OF “OCEAN ACIDIFICATION” ON A TROPICAL CORAL (28 AUG 2013) Reference Takahashi, A. and Kurihara, H. 2013. Ocean acidification does not affect the physiology of the tropical coral Acropora digitifera during a 5-week experiment. Coral Reefs 32: 305-314. Takahashi and Kurihara (2013) introduce their work by writing that "according to the IPCC (2007) models, atmospheric CO2 is predicted to rise to 540-970 ppm by the end of this century and reach a maximum of approximately 1,900 ppm when the world's fossil fuel reserves are fully exploited," while noting that "a substantial number of laboratory studies have suggested a decline in coral calcification with a rise in seawaterpCO2." However, they say that recent studies "have postulated that the sensitivity of corals to elevated levels of CO2 is potentially more diverse than previously considered," citing the works of Fabricius et al. (2011), Pandolfi et al. (2011) and Rodolfo-Metalpa et al. (2011). Intrigued by these new and diverse findings, Takahashi and Kurihara set out to measure the rates of calcification, respiration and photosynthesis of the tropical coral Acropora digitifera - along with the coral's zooxanthellae density - under near-natural summertime temperature and sunlight conditions for a period of five weeks. Results of their analysis revealed that these "key physiological parameters" were not affected by either predicted mid-range CO2 concentrations (pCO2 = 744 ppm, pH = 7.97, Ωarag = 2.6) or by high CO2 concentrations (pCO2 = 2,142 ppm, pH = 7.56, Ωarag = 1.1) over the 35-day period of their experiment. In addition, they state that there was "no significant correlation between calcification rate and seawater aragonite saturation (Ωarag)" and "no evidence of CO2 impact on bleaching." Contrary to what many have long contended, there is mounting evidence that suggests that the negative consequences predicted for the world's marine life in a future high-CO2 world are by no means assured, nor are they likely to be widespread. Additional References Fabricius, K.E., Langdon, C., Uthicke, S., Humphrey, C., Noonan, S., De'ath, G., Okazaki, R., Muehllehner, N., Glas, M.S. and Lough, J.M. 2011. Losers and winners in coral reefs acclimatized to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations. Nature Climate Change 1: 165-169. IPCC. 2007. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom. Pandolfi, J.M., Connolly, S.R., Marshall, D.J. and Cohen, A.L. 2011. Projecting coral reef futures under global warming and ocean acidification.Science 333: 418-422. Rodolfo-Metalpa, R., Houlbreque, F., Tambutte, E., Boisson, F., Baggini, C., Patti, F.P., Jeffree, R., Fine, M., Foggo, A., Gattuso, J.P. and Hall-Spencer, J.M. 2011. Coral and mollusk resistance to ocean acidification adversely affected by warming. Nature Climate Change 1: 308-312. Archived 28 August 2013

E TWO MILLENNIA OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE NORTHERN TIBETAN PLATEAU (28 AUG 2013) Reference He, Y.-X., Liu, W.-G., Zhao, C., Wang, Z., Wang, H.-Y., Liu, Y., Qin, X.-Y., Hu, Q.-H., An, Z.- S. and Liu, Z.-H. 2013. Solar influenced late Holocene temperature changes on the northern Tibetan Plateau. Chinese Science Bulletin 58: 1053-1059. According to He et al. (2013), "numerous paleoclimatic studies have extended the instrumental data to the past ~2000 years in various parts of the world," confirming that "global temperatures have varied between relative cold (i.e. the Little Ice Age, LIA) and warm (i.e. the Medieval Warm Period, MWP) conditions," additionally noting that in the pre-industrial era, "natural climate variability has been mainly linked to solar irradiance changes." But they say that "substantial scientific uncertainty exists on whether temperatures at the current warm stage are equal to or higher than those during the MWP, the most recent natural warm interval before the industrial period." And, therefore, they set out to further explore this significant scientific question. Working with sediment cores that they extracted from the centers of Lake Sugan (38°52'N, 93°75'E) and Lake Gahai (37°08'N, 97°31'E), He et al. derived a pair of decadally-resolved, alkenone-based, temperature records for the Qaidam Basin of the northern Tibetan Plateau. In discussing their findings, the ten Chinese researchers report that "relative warm/cold periods can be clearly identified, including the current warm period after AD 1850, the LIA between AD 1350-1850, the MWP between AD 700-1350, the Dark Ages Cold Period between AD 50-700, and the warm period before AD 50," which is often referred to as the Roman Warm Period. In addition, they state that the two temperature records are "broadly consistent" with an alkenone- based record from Lake Qinghai (Liu et al., 2006), tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions from the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau (Liu et al., 2009) and synthesized temperature reconstructions from the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (Yang et al., 2003) and the Northern Hemisphere (Moberg et al., 2005)." What is more, they say their records show that "the regional temperatures during the MWP exceeded those in the recent warm period," noting that "the estimated warmth during the MWP optimum relative to the recent level could be bracketed by the ~1.9°C estimated from Lake Gahai and ~0.5°C from Lake Qinghai." And in concluding their paper, they say that "the temperature variability appears to correspond to solar irradiance changes, suggesting a possible link between the two, at least on the northern Tibetan Plateau, during the late Holocene." Additional References Liu, Y., An, Z.S., Linderholm, H.W., Chen, D.-L., Song, H.-M., Cai, Q.-F., Sun, J.-Y. and Tian, H. 2009. Annual temperatures during the last 2485 years in the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau inferred from tree rings. Science in China Series D - Earth Science 52: 348-359. Liu, Z.H., Henderson, A.C.G. and Huang, Y.S. 2006. Alkenone-based reconstruction of Late- Holocene surface temperature and salinity changes in Lake Qinghai, China. Geophysical Research Letters 33: 10.1029/2006GL026151. Moberg, A., Sonechkin, D.M., Holmgren, K., Datsenko, N.M. and Karlen, W. 2005. Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature 433: 613-617. Yang, B., Achim, B. and Shi, Y.F. 2003. Late Holocene temperature fluctuations on the Tibetan Plateau. Quaternary Science Reviews 22: 2335-2344. Archived 28 August 2013

F. DAVIS STRAIT POLAR BEARS: TOO MANY BEARS OR NOT ENOUGH SEA ICE? (28 AUG 2013) Reference Peacock, E., Taylor, M.K., Laake, J. and Stirling, I. 2013. Population ecology of polar bears in Davis Strait, Canada and Greenland. Journal of Wildlife Management 77: 463-476. Davis Strait polar bears are the most southerly subpopulation: while a few bears in the southernmost portion of the Southern Hudson Bay region (James Bay) spend their summers at about 52°N and those in the southernmost portion of Western Hudson Bay region range to about 55°N, bears in the Davis Strait polar bear subpopulation occur regularly in spring to at least 50°N with some moving as far south as 47°N. It is a large region that varies north to south in terms of harp seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus) abundance (i.e. prey) and risk of being hunted. A comprehensive assessment of the population has not been conducted since the 1970s, although some mark/recapture work was done in the 1990s (Stirling and Parkinson 2006). Stirling and Parkinson had this to say about Davis Strait sea ice (where 'breakup' is defined as the date in the year when ice cover reached 40% or less): "The maximum percentage ice coverage in Davis Strait [in spring] varies considerably more between years than that in Western Hudson Bay, Foxe Basin, or Baffin Bay: it was below 50% in 1981, 1986, and 2004, but above 85% in 1983, 1984, and 1993 (Fig. 7a). Correspondingly large interannual fluctuations are apparent in the timing of ice breakup (Fig. 7b), making a linear trend less meaningful. The long-term slope of the trend line for Davis Strait, -0.64 ± 0.69 days/year (p = 0.35), is not statistically significant; in contrast, the short-term trend, from 1991-2004, is decidedly negative (Fig. 7b)." The graph provided by Stirling and Parkinson shows that the earliest breakup date occurred in 1981 while the latest was only three years later (1984); the breakup date for 2004 was virtually identical to 1986. But have these recent changes in sea ice cover negatively affected the survival or abundance of polar bears in Davis Strait? Lily Peacock and colleagues proposed to find out. The authors summarize their research this way: "we conducted a new capture study of polar bears in Davis Strait from 2005 to 2007. We pooled polar bear mark-recapture and harvest recovery data from 1974 through 2009, and estimated current rates of reproduction and survival, and population abundance and growth rate. To examine survival rates in an ecological context, we considered the effects of geography, harp seal abundance, and ice conditions on annual survival, and how the rates have changed over time. We further discuss the impacts of harvest rate and population density." Bears were captured in the spring during 1974-1979, in spring and fall during 1991-1994 and 1997-1999, and in the fall only during 2005-2007. A total of 866 females and 990 males were captured and 145 harvested bears were accounted for. Abundance estimates and population growth rate estimates were generated from models that incorporated data on age and reproductive status collected from the mark-recapture work, and took into account harvest information. Survival for various age classes of polar bears was calculated by models that related survival over time to summer ice concentration ("mean bi-weekly total annual ice concentration 15 May - 15 October") and harp seal abundance. And what did they find? Peacock et al. (2013) state that "the overall amount of sea ice declined and breakup has become progressively earlier" since the 1970s. Despite this, they "estimated the abundance of the Davis Strait polar bear subpopulation to 2,158, which results in a relatively high population density of polar bears of approximately 5.1 bears/1,000 km2 of sea ice habitat (Taylor and Lee 1995). This density is greater than polar bear densities in other seasonal-ice subpopulations, which are approximately 3.5 bears/1,000 km2." This estimate of 2,158 bears is a substantial increase over the 1,400 bears estimated in 1993 by Derocher et al. (1998). So despite declining sea ice since the 1970s, by 2007 the density of bears in this region had reached a higher level than other subpopulations with similar ice conditions. The authors also concluded that "survival and reproduction of bears in southern Davis Strait was greater than in the north and tied to a concurrent dramatic increase in breeding harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) in Labrador." They suggest that the Davis Strait polar bear subpopulation is characterized by "low recruitment rates, average adult survival rates, and high population density." The high density of bears in this region may be affecting recruitment (i.e. reproduction): the authors state that "low reproductive rates may reflect negative effects of greater densities or worsening ice conditions." It seems that polar bear populations with a high density of animals may show changes to life history parameters ["density-dependent responses"] that are similar to those expected in populations affected by declines in sea ice. This may seem a surprising outcome but it is not unprecedented. Similar results were found for Barents Sea polar bears studied between 1988 and 2002, prompting researcher Andrew Derocher (2005) to state: "given that the population may be showing density-dependent responses, it is not possible to differentiate the climatic effects from population effects." Who would have thought? Polar bear biologists apparently cannot tell the difference between the negative effects of too many bears and reduced amounts of summer ice. Additional References Derocher 2005. Population ecology of polar bears at Svalbard, Norway. Population Ecology 47: 267-275. Derocher, A., Garner, G.W., Lunn, N.J. and Wiig, Ø. (eds.) 1998. Polar Bears: Proceedings of the 12th meeting of the Polar Bear Specialists Group IUCN/SSC, 3-7 February, 1997, Oslo, Norway. Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge UK, IUCN. Stirling, I. and Parkinson, C.L. 2006. Possible effects of climate warming on selected populations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Canadian Arctic. Arctic: 59: 261-275. Taylor, M. and Lee, J. 1995. Distribution and abundance of Canadian polar bear populations: a management perspective. Arctic 48: 147-154. Archived 28 August 2013

G. Climate Science Exploited for Political Agenda, According to Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons Posted on August 29, 2013 by Anthony Watts

TUCSON, Ariz., Aug. 28, 2013 — /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ – Climatism or global warming alarmism is the most prominent recent example of science being coopted to serve a political agenda, writes Richard Lindzen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the in the fall 2013 issue of the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons. He compares it to past examples: Lysenkoism in the Soviet Union, and the eugenics movement. Lindzen describes the Iron Triangle and the Iron Rice Bowl, in which ambiguous statements by scientists are translated into alarmist statements by media and advocacy groups, influencing politicians to feed more money to the acquiescent scientists. In consequence, he writes, “A profound dumbing down of the discussion…interacts with the ascendancy of incompetents.” Prizes and accolades are awarded for politically correct statements, even if they defy logic. “Unfortunately, this also often induces better scientists to join the pack in order to preserve their status,” Lindzen adds. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/29/climate-science-exploited-for-political-agenda- according-to-journal-of-american-physicians-and-surgeons/#more-92673

H. STUDY DOCUMENTS FRACTURING FLUID’S HARM TO FISH By Jennifer A. Dlouhy Hydraulic fracturing fluids from nearby natural gas wells probably harmed endangered fish in a Kentucky creek, according to two federal agencies. In a joint study, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Fish and Wildlife Service said fracturing fluid — a mixture of water, sand and chemicals that is pumped underground to unlock oil and gas — caused the threatened Blackside dace minnow and other fish to die off when it was spilled in a small Appalachian creek in 2007. London, Ky.-based Nami Resources Co. pleaded guilty to violating federal endangered species and clean water laws in 2009 in connection with the incident, when subcontractors working at four of the company’s wells failed to properly dispose of fracturing fluids used at the sites. According to the Fish and Wildlife Service, the fluids discharged into the upper reaches of Acorn Fork, a small Appalachian creek, contaminating it with hydrochloric acid and other chemicals. The fish developed gill lesions and suffered liver and spleen damage consistent with exposure to acidic water and toxic concentrations of heavy metals, according to water and fish samples collected immediately after the incident and analyzed by the two Interior Department agencies. Survey scientist Diana Papoulias, the lead author of the study, said the episode “is a precautionary tale of how entire populations could be put at risk even with small-scale fluid spills.” The study is published in a special edition of Southeastern Naturalist. According to the report, water in Acorn Fork became more acidic, with the pH level dropping from 7.5 to 5.6, after the fracturing fluids entered the creek. Water samples also showed higher levels of iron, aluminum and other dissolved elements. The research comes amid a growing nationwide debate over the use of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling to tap newly accessible oil and gas reserves nationwide. The oil and gas industry insists that there have been no documented cases of fracturing fluid contaminating underground drinking water supplies. But surface spills of fracturing fluids can cause damage, and natural gas can migrate from poorly cemented and designed wells. The new government study notes that contamination can compound existing environmentalproblems, particularly in areas such as the Appalachian Highlands, where mining, logging, agriculture and development have already degraded aquatic ecosystems and fragmented freshwater fish populations. “As efforts accelerate to unleash new energy sources, application of technologies such as hydraulic fracturing can, if not carefully developed, compound the effects of ecosystem degradation caused by past resource extraction,” the study’s authors write. The Blackside dace is a minnow found in just three states: Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia. The ray-finned fish have been listed as a federally threatened species since 1987. The main threat to the fish, which the Fish and Wildlife Service says generally live in small, isolated groups, is loss of habitat. The timing of the 2007 spill was particularly rough for the Blackside dace, the study authors note, because it occurred during the spawning season. It is unclear how many dace were killed after the 2007 spill. [email protected] twitter.com/jendlouhyhc

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service The Blackside dace is a minnow found in parts of Tennessee, Kentucky and Virginia. Fracturing fluid spilled in a small Appalachian creek in 2007 is blamed for killing a number of the fish.

I. CAN THE IPCC DO REVOLUTIONARY SCIENCE? Posted on August 31, 2013 by Guest Blogger

Guest Essay by Barry Brill

The timing couldn’t be worse. On 23-26 September, scores of representatives of the world’s Environment Ministries are scheduled to meet in Stockholm to wordsmith the final draft of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the key WG1 (physical science) portion of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC). The draft SPM, sent to governments on 2 August, is a 22-page condensation of 14 chapters comprising 1,914 pages of material discussing scientific papers that were published between 2006 and 15 March 2013. This SPM is (or could be) a document of world-shaking importance. As Bloomberg points out – “it is designed to be used by ministers working to devise by 2015 a global treaty to curb climate change”. The timetable for the global treaty was deferred at the Durban COP because developing countries (particularly China and India) felt that the 2013 SPM was an indispensable input to the negotiations. Governments need an authoritative up-to-date assessment of both the extent and the causes of the climate change threat, present and future. But the SPM has been sidelined by momentous climate change events that occurred after its March cut-off date – and even after the date the draft was circulated. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/31/can-the-ipcc-do-revolutionary-science/#more-92826

J. CO2 CALCULATION IN THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE MAY BE OFF DUE TO A DEPTH ERROR Posted on August 31, 2013 by Anthony Watts

It seems that a simple assumption about where to measure CO2 in the ocean surface has drastic implications. via The Hockey Schtick

New paper finds global carbon cycle datasets may be biased A paper published today in Global Biogeochemical Cycles finds prior calculations of the global carbon cycle may be erroneous because such calculations are based upon partial pressures of CO2 from several meters below the ocean surface instead of CO2 levels at the ocean surface ["the boundary layer"] where CO2 is actually exchanged between the atmosphere and ocean. The authors find a “strong” CO2 variability between the global datasets measured from several meters below the surface in comparison to the ocean surface that cannot be explained by Henry’s Law alone, and are primarily due to variations in biological activity between these layers. The paper finds higher levels of CO2 in the boundary layer than in the 5 meter deep global datasets, which would suggest that either the oceans are less of a sink for CO2 or a larger source of CO2 to the atmosphere than previously assumed. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/31/co2-calculation-in-the-glovbal-carbon-cycle-may-be-off- due-to-a-depth-error/#more-92816

L. Climate of Failure: how alternate energy dreams are pie in the sky solutions for emissions Posted on September 1, 2013 by Anthony Watts

Green Energy (Photo credit: bkingzen)

Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. had a worthwhile guest essay in Foreign Policy titled: Climate of Failure published last year that Dr. Judith Curry has made a post about today that she calls a “good topic for Sunday discussion”. I agree. While I see many of the same things she does, I also see a different path forward. Her last takeaway point is: … focus on goals that can actually be accomplished and getting people who think differently to act alike. We have the technology to do that in our hands now, all we need is the will. If it weren’t for the need to make nuclear bombs (of which uranium based nuclear power is a spinoff), we might already have been there. Few people know this, but the demonization of coal didn’t start with environmentalists, it started with nuclear power advocates, but that is a story for another day. Here are some excerpts from Pielke Jr’s essay in FP: Environmentalists are just now waking up to the reality that if we’re going to stop global warming, we’re going to have to be a lot more politically savvy. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/01/climate-of-failure-how-alternate-energy-dreams-are-pie- in-the-sky-solutions-for-emissions/#more-92835

M. ATMOSPHERE’S EMISSION FINGERPRINT AFFECTED BY HOW CLOUDS ARE STACKED Posted on August 31, 2013 by Anthony Watts

earth (Photo credit: Dreaming in the deep south) From AGU highlights: Clouds, which can absorb or reflect incoming radiation and affect the amount of radiation escaping from Earth’s atmosphere, remain the greatest source of uncertainty in global climate modeling. By combining space-based observations with climate models, researchers are able to derive baseline spectral signals, called spectral fingerprints, of how changes in the physical properties of the Earth’s atmosphere, such as the concentration of carbon dioxide or the relative humidity, affect the amount of radiation escaping from the top of the atmosphere. Researchers can then use these spectral fingerprints to attribute changes in the observed top-of- atmosphere radiation to changes in individual atmospheric properties. However, recent research has shown that the way global climate models represent the interactions between clouds and radiation can complicate the process of making these spectral fingerprints. Researchers are finding that what matters is not only the presence or absence of clouds at each location represented in the model but also how the clouds are stacked vertically within each model grid. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/31/atmospheres-emission-fingerprint-affected-by-how- clouds-are-stacked/#more-92802 N. A ‘HEAD SCRATCHER’ – NO ATLANTIC HURRICANE BY AUGUST IN FIRST TIME IN 11 YEARS Posted on August 30, 2013 by Anthony Watts

From his vantage point high above the earth in the International Space Station, Astronaut Ed Lu captured this broad view of Hurricane Isabel. The image, ISS007-E-14750, was taken with a 50 mm lens on a digital camera. (Photo credit: Wikipedia) Where are all the hurricanes Al Gore, Bill McKibben, Joe Romm, and Brad Johnson say are supposed to happen due to global warming? Article includes most recent forecast from Klotzbach and Gray Bloomberg News: August is about to end without an Atlantic hurricane for the first time since 2002, calling into question predictions of a more active storm season than normal. Six tropical systems have formed in the Atlantic since the season began June 1 and none of them has grown to hurricane strength with winds of at least 74 miles (120 kilometers) per hour. Accumulated cyclone energy in the Atlantic, a measure of tropical power, is about 30 percent of where it normally would be, said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal hurricane forecasts. “At this point, I doubt that a super-active hurricane season will happen,” Klotzbach said in an e- mail yesterday. The most active part of the Atlantic season runs from Aug. 20 to about the first week of October. The statistical peak occurs on Sept. 10, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-30/no-atlantic-hurricane-by-august-in-first- time-in-11-years.html http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/30/a-head-scratcher-no-atlantic-hurricane-by-august-in-first- time-in-11-years/#more-92771

O. COST ANALYSIS OF REGULATIONS TO STOP GLOBAL WARMING DUE TO CO2 This video assumes that CO2 will increase the planet temperature (which is not a given based on recent data) and looks at relative economics for adapting versus the costly impact of controlling CO2 emissions. This was produced in Australia where costly restrictions have been implemented and shows that their effort will have negligible impact on temperature rise while very costly to their economy. It calculates that CO2 restrictions are 50 times more costly than adapting to small temperature increases. The video shows the folly of Australia's efforts. Keep in mind that the current US administration is following in the footsteps of Australia with its plans to regulate CO2 emissions on a number of ever increasing fronts without Congressional approval. Similarly the regulations being imposed in the US have negligible impact on global temperature assuming there is any impact at all. A compelling case against such regulations is below: http://topher.com.au/50-to-1-video-project/ ( If your computer will not display this video, copy and paste the URL into Internet Explorer) There are other much longer videos that are available at this site including interviews with top scientists for back up. Don Shaw

P. INPUT TO ENVIRONMENTAL NEWSLETTER

The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project (BEST), which includes both Richard Muller and Judith Curry, has just released a pile of updated data, new papers, graphics, clips, etc. Here is the announcement: Berkeley Earth has just updated its website to include more recent data, new memos, large number of new graphics, an Op-Ed on shale gas in China, and new interviews and presentations. Specifically, the changes include:

Updated data: -- The Berkeley Earth dataset has been updated through June 2013 -- Gridded data is now posted Available here: http://berkeleyearth.org/data

Three memos, on: -- Fugitive Methane and Greenhouse Warming -- Explaining Declines in US Carbon -- New EPA Report Reveals Significantly Lower Methane Leakage from Natural Gas Available here: http://berkeleyearth.org/memos

Graphics that examine: -- Global Warming and the Changing Range of Seasonal Temperatures -- Global Warming and Permafrost Melt -- Regional Amplification of Global Warming: Do the Models Get It Right? -- Model Temperature Response to Greenhouse Gases -- How Good Are the Models? Berkeley Earth Check on 20th Century Model Performance -- Global Energy and Emissions Available here: http://berkeleyearth.org/graphics

A recently published Op-Ed in the New York Times: -- China must exploit its shale gas, by Elizabeth Muller Available here: http://berkeleyearth.org/op-eds

Interviews and presentations: -- Keynote address by Richard Muller on "How to Convert Global Warming Skeptics" -- Future 500 interview of Richard Muller Available here: http://berkeleyearth.org/videos

Additionally, our Decadal Variations paper has now been published by the Journal of Geophysical Research Available here: http://berkeleyearth.org/papers Jaak Saame http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/01/my-50-to-1-project-interview-is-now-online-along-with- the-main-video/#more-92941 (GHH)

Q. ANOTHER PAPER BLAMES ENSO FOR GLOBAL WARMING PAUSE, CALLING IT ‘… A MAJOR CONTROL KNOB GOVERNING EARTH’S TEMPERATURE.’ Posted on September 3, 2013 by Anthony Watts http://wattsupwiththat.com/

This animation shows sea surface temperature anomalies during the 1997-98 El Niño. Note the areas along the equator shown in red, where temperatures were warmer than average. (Photo credit: Wikipedia) Readers may recall the recent paper that blamed “the pause” in global temperature on ENSO changes in the Pacific Ocean. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling Yu Kosaka & Shang-Ping Xie Nature (2013) doi:10.1038/nature12534 Dr. Judith Curry called the paper “mind blowing“ Now there’s another paper that reaches a similar conclusion: Update of the Chronology of Natural Signals in the Near-Surface Mean Global Temperature Record and the Southern Oscillation Index de Freitas and McLean, 2013, p. 237 (Int J Geosciences – open access): “All other things being equal, a period dominated by a high frequency of El Niño-like conditions will result in global warming, whereas a period dominated by a high frequency of La Niña-like conditions will result in global cooling. Overall, the results imply that natural climate forcing associated with ENSO is a major contributor to temperature variability and perhaps a major control knob governing Earth’s temperature.” ABSTRACT Time series for the Southern Oscillation Index and mean global near surface temperature anomalies are compared for the 1950 to 2012 period using recently released HadCRU4 data. The method avoids a focused statistical analysis of the data, in part because the study deals with smoothed data, which means there is the danger of spurious correlations, and in part because the El Niño Southern Oscillation is a cyclical phenomenon of irregular period. In these situations the results of regression analysis or similar statistical evaluation can be misleading. With the potential controversy arising over a particular statistical analysis removed, the findings indicate that El Nino-Southern Oscillation exercises a major influence on mean global temperature. The results show the potential of natural forcing mechanisms to account for mean global temperature variation, although the extent of the influence is difficult to quantify from among the variability of short-term influences. Since the paper is open access, and available here: http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=27382 Don Shaw

Regards George