Conference Call Transcript

PRELIMINARY TRANSCRIPT

DMGT.L - Daily Mail And General Trust PLC Interim Management Statement Conference Call

Event Date/Time: Jul 26, 2011 / 07:00AM GMT

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© 2011 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. 'Thomson Reuters' and the Thomson Reuters logo are registered trademarks of Thomson Reuters and its affiliated companies. PRELIMINARY TRANSCRIPT Jul 26, 2011 / 07:00AM GMT, DMGT.L - Daily Mail And General Trust PLC Interim Management Statement Conference Call

CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS Martin Morgan Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive Stephen Daintith Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Finance Director

CONFERENCE CALL PARTICIPANTS Ian Whittaker Liberum Capital - Analyst Paul Gooden RBS - Analyst Mark Braley Deutsche Bank - Analyst Alex DeGroote Panmure - Analyst Rakesh Patel Goldman Sachs - Analyst Johnathan Barrett Singer Capital Markets - Analyst Tim Nollen Macquarie - Analyst Nick Dempsey Barclays Capital - Analyst Ruchi Malaiya Citi - Analyst

PRESENTATION

Operator

Thank you for standing by and welcome to the DMGT analyst conference call. (Operator Instructions). I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Martin Morgan. Please go ahead, sir.

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to DMGT's conference call for our third quarter interim management statement. I'm Martin Morgan, Chief Executive of DMGT. And I'm joined today by Stephen Daintith, our Finance Director.

Today's conference call is a chance to highlight the key points from our third quarter trading. I will touch briefly on the overall aspects of Group trading before handing over to Stephen, who will provide some more detail on our divisional and financial performance. There will then, of course, be an opportunity at the end of our call for you to ask questions.

Overall trading in the third quarter has been mixed. There was continued strength from our international B2B businesses, with all divisions performing in line with our expectations. In contrast, conditions within our consumer businesses have been tough, with advertising revenue for our national newspapers significantly weaker than expected over the quarter. However, both the Daily Mail and the Mail on Sunday continued to deliver circulation performance considerably ahead of the overall market, underlying the strength of the franchise and the loyalty of their readers.

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Costs, as you would expect, given the difficult advertising conditions, are something we are very focused on and achieving increased efficiencies, particularly within A&N Media in the quarter, to offset lower revenues. Overall operating efficiency continues to be a core component of our strategy to drive long-term profitability across all our divisions.

In terms of the outlook, we do expect to achieve modest growth in earnings per share for the full financial year. The resilience of our earnings will be driven by the continued growth of the B2B operations and despite the volatile and uncertain market conditions faced by the UK consumer businesses, where we have very limited visibility. Given the strong cash generation of our companies, debt has reduced over the third quarter.

And that concludes my opening remarks. So let me hand over to Stephen who will provide you with some more details. Stephen?

Stephen Daintith - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Finance Director

Thank you, Martin. Okay. Some key points for the period.

For the Group, revenue for the three months was GBP495m, up 2% on an underlying basis on last year and down 2% on a reported basis. Overall the positive B2B trends experienced in the first half of solid subscription revenues and the performance of our major trade shows has continued into the third quarter, with all businesses performing in line with our expectations. And we're maintaining our guidance for outlook for the full year as reported in May for our B2B business. Total B2B revenues were GBP229m, 8% higher on an underlying basis and 2% lower on a reported basis, due mainly to the impact of the lower US dollar exchange rate.

Within our individual businesses, RMS continues to perform well, as expected, with underlying revenues up 9% cumulatively over the nine- month period. This has been driven by continued growth in their core modeling business, as well as the benefits of some of the newer initiatives coming through.

DMGI has been as expected, with underlying revenues up 1%. The good performance from the property companies, EDR and Landmark, as well as growth from Hobsons and Genscape, were principally offset by continued weakness at Sanborn. In the financial markets, where Trepp and Lewtan operate, new bookings continued to be offset by higher attrition rates as speculative players continue to exit the market, a trend that we highlighted earlier in the year as a sign of stabilization of the market over the longer term.

Turning to DMG Events. Revenues were up 17% on an underlying basis to GBP26m. Reported revenues were 12% lower, as expected, due to the absence of the biennial Global Petroleum Show and the impact of exchange rates. This second half has seen relatively few big shows, with the largest, the New York International Gift Fair, taking place in August. Indications for this show are positive, with bookings nicely ahead of last year at this stage. As announced recently, we're considering offers for our US retail-focused events business, which includes the New York International Gift Fair, and will update you on progress when appropriate.

Euromoney. As you'll have seen from Euromoney's IMS on July 15, they produced a good and strong performance of 10% underlying revenue growth, driven by another good performance from the Events businesses.

Turning to Consumer Media, revenues from A&N Media in the quarter were GBP266m, 6% lower on an underlying basis. The tough consumer environment and particularly the impact on the UK high street and retail industry have significantly impacted advertising revenues. We were therefore focused on cost control with further headcount reduction over the quarter, mainly in Northcliffe Media. And total A&N Media headcount is now 8% lower than at the start of the financial year.

On Associated, our circulation strategy continues to produce good results, with continued outperformance at both the daily and Sunday markets, as evidenced by the most recent ABC data for June. On 18 July this year the cover price of the Daily Mail was raised from 50p to 55p to mitigate some of the continuing high cost of newsprint as well as the recent decline in advertising revenues.

In the third quarter, underlying advertising revenues from Associated's newspaper operations were 10% below last year, with print down 12% and digital up by a pleasing 51%. Retail, our largest category, bore the brunt of the nervous consumer and high street uncertainty, closely followed by the travel and financial categories.

Mail Online continues to grow strongly, with revenues up 59% in the period, with around 70m unique visitors in June, showing 62% year-on-year growth. Revenues from Associated's digital-only businesses grew by 2%, reflecting good growth from the jobs and property sites, being partly offset by difficult conditions for our travel and motors portals. Although it's a short-term view, advertising trends in the first three weeks of July

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have shown some improvement as against softer comparatives for the quarter, with revenues down by just 3%. However, visibility remains extremely limited. September is a key month, particularly in terms of the back-to-school advertising spending from retailers. And, as such, it is difficult to assess how quarter four will turn out at this stage.

Moving on to Northcliffe. UK advertising revenues were down 10% in the quarter, showing a small improvement on the 11% run rate experienced in the second quarter. Our largest category, retail, is experiencing some good momentum, moving into positive territory during the quarter, up just under 1%, after recording a 6% fall in quarter two. Other categories, however, remain weak, especially the recruitment sector. Again, a short-term view, but advertising revenues in the last four weeks at Northcliffe were down 8% on last year, a slight improvement on the Q3 run rate.

I will now hand you over to Martin for some concluding comments.

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

Yes. So overall a mixed quarter, with a continued strength from our B2B operations offsetting weakness in the consumer media businesses. As I said earlier on, we still expect to achieve some growth in earnings for the full year.

On the longer-term perspective, our strategy of having significant exposure to markets outside the UK as well as high-growth B2B operations gives us a good degree of diversification and resilience, as well as good organic growth potential.

And finally, given the events of recent weeks, I just wanted to say a few words about the current debate around media standards, and we do recognize that this is a matter of intense interest and we want you to be able to understand our approach. As I hope you already know, DMGT is a responsible publisher and we -- of our over 120 national and regional newspaper titles. We, as you would expect, are passionate believers in the importance of a free and vigorous press in our society and we have a proud tradition and history of investing in quality journalism in all of our titles, which are required to operate within the PCC Code and, of course, within the law.

Now you will be aware that the government has announced two enquiries into these matters. We recognize the political imperative to have these enquiries and we plan to play a full part in contributing to them.

The Board of DMGT has received assurances that our titles have not published stories backed on hacked messages or other sources of material that was obtained unlawfully. As you will probably have seen, Paul Dacre, our Editor-in-Chief, recently gave assurances to this effect to a Joint Committee of the House of Lords and the House of Commons.

And that is all I wish to say by way of my concluding remarks. And Stephen and I are open and happy to take your questions. Thank you.

QUESTION AND ANSWER

Operator

(Operator Instructions). And your first question comes from Ian Whittaker from Liberum. Please go ahead.

Ian Whittaker - Liberum Capital - Analyst

Thanks. Three questions, just to answer. First one is just in terms of newspaper operations, given, as you said, advertising was weaker than expected. Should we expect to see another round of substantial cost cutting coming through or do you think it's very much going to be just trimming from here on in?

The second thing just has to do with the RMS, the underlying increase of 7%. Obviously a little bit slower than previous quarters. There is some quarterly volatility within there. Should we take that slowdown as a sign of that volatility rather than a trend line moving forward?

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And the third one is just to come back on those comments at the end on the situation over the past couple of weeks. Can we -- because obviously there's been an impact on both Trinity share price and News Corp., can we therefore be totally reassured that Daily Mail will not get dragged in to this issue surrounding of newspaper standards?

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

Okay. Three questions there on newspapers. I think you will see us taking more cost out of the business. Particularly there's more cost to come out of the Northcliffe side and you will see some cost coming out, however, in the nationals as well. But being realistic, these are not going to be on the same sort of scale as we took out in 2009 and 2010. So in the light of lighter advertising pagination, there are obviously things we can do to back out the cost of the newspapers in terms of pagination and issue sizes and that kind of stuff. And we continue to work on taking costs out of the back end in terms of overheads and so on.

Stephen, do you want to answer the question on RMS, the underlying trend?

Stephen Daintith - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Finance Director

Yes. I think the reasoning that you gave to us is really what's out there. It's -- I wouldn't read too much into a quarterly revenues number for RMS. It just happens to be the volatility within the quarter. We still expect to see revenue growing on a full-year basis high single digits, if not around the 10% mark. And we expect that growth to continue.

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

And the third thing in terms of the situation in the news industry and DMGT not being dragged into anything, I think asking me for a guarantee is probably unrealistic and this is a very sort of fevered environment where all sorts of stories are breaking all the time. DMGT, we have very strong processes and procedures in place. I've made the statement, as Paul Dacre did, appearing to the Select Committee about where we stand on unlawful activity. And therefore we don't see ourselves perhaps in the same -- well definitely don't see ourselves in the same category as others.

But I don't have a crystal ball exactly how this whole thing is going to play out. What we are very much focusing on now is preparing to make our contributions to the enquiries as they get underway.

Ian Whittaker - Liberum Capital - Analyst

Okay. That's great. Thanks very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from Paul Gooden from RBS. Please go ahead.

Paul Gooden - RBS - Analyst

Yes. Thank you. Two questions, please. The first one again is on RMS. Your new hurricane model has caused a lot of concern amongst the customer base. I just wondered if you could update us in terms of are they accepting of the conclusions? Have you had any incidences of customers dropping the model as a result of that?

And then the second question is just on the Mail on Sunday. In terms of the News of the World going out of business, have you so far been able to capitalize on that? Has it lived up to your expectations in terms of the opportunity and have you -- do you feel as if you're exploiting that successfully.

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

Yes. Okay. I'll deal with the first one. Stephen, perhaps you'd like to comment on the Mail on Sunday.

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Yes, in terms of the US hurricane model, I have to say we've made good progress over the last quarter in terms of the acceptance of the model, both in terms of it being deployed and increasingly being adopted in the marketplace. And so the message I feel very comfortable giving you is it's now settling down. As far as I'm aware, only one company in the market, it's a specialist Florida insurance company, has withdrawn because of elevated risk coming up from the model and the capital requirements -- increased capital requirements on that.

But, as I've been at pains to point out before, the impact of this model varies according to the type of business that people are writing and the geography, sub-geographies, if you like, of which they are writing. And so you shouldn't get the impression that, if you like, the pain of a heightened view of risk is equally distributed across the market.

And we've just recently rolled out the upgrade to the European windstorm model and it's early days on that, but I understand that we've prepared the market very well for that model and I'm hopeful that we won't have quite such a bumpy ride as we move through adoption.

Stephen about Mail on Sunday?

Stephen Daintith - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Finance Director

Yes. I think the first statement I'd make is that we very much see this as an opportunity. The News of the World was selling around 2.7m copies every Sunday. And now there's that gap in the market. Let me just give first of all some overview numbers on this.

If you look on Sunday July 3, which was the last Sunday before the News of the World demise was announced, and probably therefore one of the cleanest, well, the most appropriate Sunday to look at, there were about 9m newspapers sold in the UK on that Sunday. This Sunday just gone, in other words July 24, there were again about 9m newspapers sold, slightly lower than the previous July 3 Sunday, about 100,000 or so, but pretty much the newspaper circulation stayed pretty much the same.

And our number has gone from about 1.9m to about 2.4m over that period. So we're selling around an extra 500,000 copies or so more than we were previously. However, the last two Sundays, of course, we've been at GBP1 cover price, which is a promotion that we don't expect to continue for the long term, but at the moment it's working very well for us. So we're pleased with our performance so far and we do believe this is a real opportunity to grow circulation.

Paul Gooden - RBS - Analyst

That's great. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Mark Braley from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Mark Braley - Deutsche Bank - Analyst

Yes. Good morning. Two very quick questions. First of all, newsprint. Can you update us on your view maybe over the next six months and give us the reference for that, the [UIE], either compared to the six months 12 months ago or the six months just been, whatever helps us to understand what you think is going to happen on pricing there.

And then secondly I see you are looking at the potential sale of a few titles in Kent to Kent Messenger Group. Can you broadly give us a feel for the profitability of those so we can understand whether if the OFT allows this through, that is indicative of a failing -- of particular failing businesses or whether it is indicative of a change in the OFT's thinking on consolidation?

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

Okay. Newsprint prices. Well, there's not much movement at the moment in terms of impact on our figures just because of the contracts that we've signed for calendar 2011. I think I'd be right in saying we indicated earlier that we are expecting newsprint price increases to rise again in

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2012. It's early days in terms of negotiations with the suppliers, but I'm generally not really in a position to know how large those newsprint price increases might be and I don't want to negotiate in public with the suppliers.

But I'm afraid at least in terms of the way we're doing our budgeting for 2012, and it goes back to the answer to an earlier question in terms of cost, we've got very much in mind that newsprint prices will increase. We're not expecting by the same percentages we experienced this year, and therefore that's another reason why we continue to bear down on costs in anticipation -- on other costs as we expect newsprint prices to increase.

Stephen Daintith - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Finance Director

Yes. I think a key point as well is that all -- the newsprint price increase in January of this calendar year has been baked into our outlook figures for this year already. So all of the outlook that we've given is based on those inflated prices. So there's no reason for any concern there that the outlook will change. And, as Martin just said, we're waiting for the negotiations to start for the January 2012 increase.

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

And in terms of the Kent Messenger and deals in local markets, I don't think we've got any hard information that would suggest that the OFT are changing direction. I think we just have -- we have to wait a little longer to see whether in fact their decisions indicate any change of position. In terms of the way we're running the business and thinking of M&A in a sense on the margin for Northcliffe, we're not making -- we're not relying on the OFT to change its approach.

Mark Braley - Deutsche Bank - Analyst

But these are -- these assets that are particularly struggling where local consolidation might be waived through due to concerns around viability, or these more normal assets where --?

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

I see, sorry. Yes. I think these are assets that are, let's call them in a breakeven position. And therefore it's in the interest, I think, of everybody that this deal just does go through to protect the publications and ultimately jobs. So I would expect the OFT to give this its clearance.

Mark Braley - Deutsche Bank - Analyst

Right. Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from Alex DeGroote from Panmure. Please go ahead.

Alex DeGroote - Panmure - Analyst

Yes. Good morning, everybody. Just a quick question from me on debt, please. I think at the end of Q3 the net debt is GBP820m.

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

That's right.

Alex DeGroote - Panmure - Analyst

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I think you started the year at about GBP860m. I just wondered, is there an expectation here of a Q4 loading towards free cash flow generation in terms of expectations on full year FY'11 period end net debt?

Stephen Daintith - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Finance Director

Yes. We do generate most of our free cash in Q4 and our final debt position will be heavily dependent on not just that free cash flow but also on the timing of the two transactions that we're going through right now. Ned Davis is, I would say, likely to complete now before the end of the financial year. And that's an acquisition, of course. And then the disposal of GLM, it's going to be tight as to whether we complete that before the end of this financial year. We hope to, but of course we're still in the negotiation process and let's see how that one goes. But if those two go through, and with our free cash flow, we would then hope to be below GBP800m by the end of the year. But of course if one of those transactions doesn't go through then everything changes.

Alex DeGroote - Panmure - Analyst

Thanks, Stephen. And is there any new news in terms of the relationship with the credit ratings guys? I'd sensed that things had become a little bit more relaxed in recent months.

Stephen Daintith - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Finance Director

I think we've met with a couple of the agencies recently. I would agree with you that there has been a warming of their attitude towards us. I think as we get our debt/EBITDA down towards 2 as a ratio, they're warming to that. The fact that we've agreed with our -- with the trustees of the pension fund, well the payment recovery plan is going to be for our pension fund associated with Northcliffe, that's another good indicator. So that has been a warming and let's hope that it's reflected in the rating status.

Alex DeGroote - Panmure - Analyst

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from Rakesh Patel from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Rakesh Patel - Goldman Sachs - Analyst

Hi there. Just one quick question from me. Just on DMGI and the property information part of the business seems to have done quite well in the quarter. And I just wondered if all of that was due to HIPs coming out of the mix or if there was actually a more underlying improvement beyond that?

And then second of all, just on the Mail on Sunday again, a lot of rumors in the press that you're going to launch a new title. Is that the case and how do you think about that in terms of cannibalizing your existing Mail on Sunday base?

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

Yes. Why don't I deal with that and then Stephen can deal with the DMGI property question?

I think you make a very good point about potential cannibalization, so that certainly is a factor in our thinking in terms of the pros and cons of a new title and its financial viability. But I would say that in our minds, in our planning, there's no question about it, the priority very clearly remains of maximizing the opportunity for the Mail on Sunday. That's our top priority. And if we can be convinced that there is an opportunity for a new title that does not negatively impact in any material way the Mail on Sunday, then it becomes more the possibility. But you're absolutely right, it's something that is very much uppermost in our thoughts as we weigh up the opportunity.

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Stephen, do you want to answer on --?

Stephen Daintith - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Finance Director

Yes. On Landmark, you're quite right. About three-quarters of the reasoning behind the growth in revenues in Landmark is due to the absence of HIPs and its comparatives and then the remaining quarter is due to just some good growth in the Landmark business. And I think what's happened during the depressed UK property market, Landmark has taken the opportunity to look at its portfolio of products, has added two or three products to its mix. And each of those, whilst very small, are starting to show some signs of growth, which has given us that nice uplifting growth that we've seen in Q3.

Rakesh Patel - Goldman Sachs - Analyst

Okay. Thanks very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from Johnathan Barrett from Singer Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Johnathan Barrett - Singer Capital Markets - Analyst

Morning, chaps. I've just got one question left for you really. And it was really about the trend you -- that you expect to occur in the advertising area. Obviously it's difficult to forecast, but obviously you've seen this slight improvement, which in part is driven by the easier comps coming through. Does it feel as if there is a stability coming through now or do you think it's still getting weaker in terms of client activity levels in both regionals and nationals?

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

I think it's too difficult to call. I'd be very brave to say stability. I think week to week on this one, of course it's great to see the last three weeks have been a lot better than -- May, June, July in Associated, May was down 10% in Associated, it was down 9% in June, and now July so far is down just about 3% for the first three weeks. So the numbers would suggest that there's an improvement. Let's wait and see.

Johnathan Barrett - Singer Capital Markets - Analyst

Okay. And on the regionals portfolio?

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

Same sort of story. Again, if you look at the -- May was down 13%. June was down 9%. And now we're calling the first three weeks of July down 8%. So again, an improving deterioration against likely less tough comparatives, but again too early to call a definitive trend.

Johnathan Barrett - Singer Capital Markets - Analyst

Have you seen any further reductions in the number of estate agents advertising in with you in the regional press?

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

I'm not aware of that actually, no.

Stephen Daintith - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Finance Director

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No, that's very interesting. You mean the number -- the absolute number?

Johnathan Barrett - Singer Capital Markets - Analyst

Yes. The absolute number as opposed to the value of the spend.

Stephen Daintith - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Finance Director

I don't know the answer to that.

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

We can certainly find it out for you.

Johnathan Barrett - Singer Capital Markets - Analyst

Okay. That's all my questions. Thank you very much for that.

Operator

Your next question comes from Tim Nollen from Macquarie. Please go ahead.

Tim Nollen - Macquarie - Analyst

Hi. My questions have been answered, but I just had one little one I'd like to ask. If you have any further thoughts on any revenues or even profitability from your online newspaper businesses, because you do talk about still a substantial increase in the number of unique users.

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

Yes. We are seeing, as you know, a very strong increase in revenue (inaudible). I think some of the most encouraging signs within that is that on the (inaudible) advertising, if I can call it that, in the premium positions within Mail Online, which we sell directly ourselves rather than relying on advertising networks, we are seeing yield increases there, which I think is a very good sign of health. And of course within the overall usage or access figures, the encouraging trends are on the number of people who are frequent visitors to the site and the amount of time they spend on the site. And of course that's of particular interest to advertisers rather than -- it's that set of users that attracts better advertising rates. So I think that's a good sign of health.

I think we've come to understand that we are still very much at the early stages of exploiting the commercial potential of this product. And over the next 12 months [our comps] will again make a lot more progress in terms of driving revenue growth.

Stephen, is there anything you want to add to that?

Stephen Daintith - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Finance Director

No, I think you spoke well, Martin. That's it.

Tim Nollen - Macquarie - Analyst

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And you said and quoted emphatically before that you're sticking with the free content model at the same time as others have been putting up pay walls. Is that still the line of reasoning?

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

It's still the line of reasoning, but I don't want you to believe that this was an act of deep religious faith that for all time forever would we keep it free. I think we're open minded in terms of whether, for example, on certain devices with certain versions of the product there might be an opportunity to charge, whether it's a metering system or so on. So I think the hallmark of our approach, as is typical to DMGT to this, is flexible and adaptable and don't get yourself painted into a particular corner. But I would suggest that you should anticipate over the, I don't know, the certain short to medium term that it'll largely or overwhelmingly be a free model.

Tim Nollen - Macquarie - Analyst

Thank you.

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

And by the way, I should have said because the other thing that's very exciting that's growing here, we haven't really got into in any significant way is the opportunities around mobile. What we're seeing is access to Mail Online through -- and I'm not talking iPads here, I'm talking phone devices, is increasing really, really rapidly. And versions of Mail Online that are purpose-built for phones that can carry advertising is -- that's one of those advertising potentials that we haven't even really got to yet.

Operator

Your next question comes from Nick Dempsey from Barclays Capital. Please go ahead.

Nick Dempsey - Barclays Capital - Analyst

Yes. Morning, guys. I've got one question left. I apologize if you've answered this; I missed the beginning. But yes, you said that within B2B that all of the businesses are performing in line with your expectations. I just wondered if that's on a profit basis, because on looking at DMG Info you've previously said mid-single-digit top-line growth on an underlying basis. It looks like that's going to be tough now taking where we've got to after nine months.

Stephen Daintith - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Finance Director

Well this is all down to Q4 and the Hobsons revenue all coming in in Q4 and principally in August and September. That's our education business. And we are maintaining our guidance on mid single digits for the DMGI revenue growth for the full year. But we always have very late visibility and it is around the last six weeks of the financial year. So all signs are positive at this stage, but you're quite right to point out that after nine months it's tricky to see where that's going to come from, but it is that Q4 in Hobsons.

Nick Dempsey - Barclays Capital - Analyst

Okay. And just one other question actually, sorry. In terms of the events, I wonder if you could tell us what you can see in terms of bookings into that important autumn season next year, your next year here?

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

Yes. The autumn events. We've got some major shows coming up in the Middle East. Stephen is turning to his crib sheet here for the actual figure. I think so far we are (multiple speakers).

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Stephen Daintith - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Finance Director

And the most obvious one is the International Gift Fair, which is in the August, which is showing some very nice growth on last year at this stage. But it's too early to call definitively the autumn shows, but I would say that they're all looking to be ahead of last year at this stage.

Nick Dempsey - Barclays Capital - Analyst

Okay. Thanks, guys.

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Ruchi Malaiya from Citi. Please go ahead.

Ruchi Malaiya - Citi - Analyst

Hi. Good morning. And again, sorry if I repeat any questions as I missed the beginning of the call. Firstly just going back to Rakesh's question on the potential for the new title. I was just wondering potentially how much capital it would need to be allocated towards it and how that sits with your strategy not to allocate more capital towards the consumer business or allocating capital towards the B2B.

Secondly, and I may have missed this, just if you had any details on the ad categories that were driving the national advertising performance in July.

And then finally, it's a slightly awkward issue, but I was just noticing that, Stephen, you were CFO of News International through the mid to late 2000s. And I was just wondering whether you've been asked to give evidence in the newspaper enquiry and whether you can reassure us that it's not going to be a significant drag on your management time.

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

You asked a first question around potential for a new title, a Sunday title. Yes, I think that in terms of our strategy, this is a totally unexpected set of circumstances with the News of the World going out of business. And I think the way I would encourage you to think about this is really how can Associated maximize the opportunity in that marketplace. But I don't think maximizing our opportunity in that marketplace is a diversion from our strategy.

And, as, I don't know, you may not have heard the answer to an earlier question, but our top priority here as we assess the opportunities is the Mail on Sunday and maximizing the opportunity for the Mail on Sunday, rather than the new title. And as one of your colleagues was pointing out quite correctly, one of the things we have to be or we are concerned about is if we were to launch a new title that it doesn't -- we don't cannibalize ourselves. So there are plenty of question marks around the viability of a new title, I can assure you.

So we're very alive to that and we would certainly be very alive to the extent of any potential investment in such a title. I'm sure that we'd have to be -- it would have to be -- to convince us it would have to be able to move into a positive cash flow situation very promptly rather than being a long-term drag. So hopefully that gives you a steer as to where our priorities are.

Stephen, could you say anything further about the ad categories in July on the consumer side?

Stephen Daintith - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Finance Director

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In July? Well no, we don't have the categories in July. We have the 3% for Associated and 8% for Northcliffe, but we haven't broken that down into categories at this stage.

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

And the last one was a personal question to you. Have you been invited to the enquiry?

Stephen Daintith - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Finance Director

No, I haven't been invited and I don't expect it to be a drag on my time.

Ruchi Malaiya - Citi - Analyst

Thank you very much for those answers.

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

But I'm not aware that anybody's been invited yet, but maybe you have better information than us. I assume that the judges will get everything brought together in terms of who they're going to call.

Operator

(Operator Instructions). We have no further questions at this time, sir.

Martin Morgan - Daily Mail and General Trust plc - Chief Executive

Thank you very much. I appreciate you all joining the call. And we look forward to talking to you again at the next results announcement. Thank you very much and good morning.

Operator

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.

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