AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
RESEARCH ADVISORY COMMITTEE
FIFTY-FIFTH MEETING
Oc ober,""12-13,, 1976
PAN AMERICAN HEALTH ORGANIZATION BUILDING
Conference Room "C"y
A.I.D. RESEARCH ADVISORY COMMITTEE
Fifty-Fifth Meeting October 12-13, 1976
PAN AMERICAN HEALTH ORGANIZATION BUILING*
Conference Room '"
AGENDA October 12 TAB
9:00 a.m. Opening Remarks Dr. Smuckler (Chairman, RAC) Dr. Long, AA/TA
9:15 a.m. Proposals for RAC Review
Improvement of the Nutritive Quality Dr. Whitney (Ch) F and Productivity of Barley for Semi- Mr. Ludington arid Regions of the World Dr. D. Peterson lontana State University Dr. M. Peterson Project Manager: Edward J. Rice, TA/AGR
10:30 a.m. Morning Coffee
10:45 a.m. Development of Improved Sorghum - Dr. M. Peterson (Ch) G Physiology of Yield and Stress Dr. Ehrenreich Reaction - University of Nebraska Dr. Falcon Dr. Whitney Project Manager: Earl R. Leng, TA/AGR
12:00 p.m. Lunch
1:15 p.m. Proposals for RAC Review
Improvement of Grain Sorghum for Dr. M. Peterson (Ch) ' Developing Countries - Texas A&M Dr. Thorbecke Dr. Whitney Dr. Wittnebert
Project Manager: Earl R. Leng, TA/AGR *Twenty Third Street and Virginia Avenue, N.W. -2-
TAB
2:30 p.m. Poor Rural Households, Technical Dr. Heady (Ch) Change and Income Distribution in Dr.Montgomery LDCs - Cornell, Purdue and Michigan Dr. D. Peterson State Universities Dr. Tanter
Project Manager: Lee Martin, TA/AGR
3:30 p.m. Afternoon CofFee
3:45 p.m. Proposals for RAC Review
Pre-clinical Testing of a Promising Dr. Weller (Ch) J New Antischistosomal Drug (CGP-4540) Dr. Carter in Non-Human Primates - University Dr. Linder of Lowell Dr. Schweigert
Project Manager: Joe L. Stockard, TA/H
5:00 p.m. Adjournment
October 13
8:30 a.m. Opening Remarks Dr. Smuckler (Ch)
8:45 a.m. Proposals for RAC Review
Cultivation of Human Malaria Dr. Wishik (Ch) K (Plasmodium falciparum) and the Dr. Carter Use of the Culture for Experimental Dr. Schweigert Immunizations of Monkeys - Rockefeller Dr. Weller University
Project Manager: Edgar A. Smith, TA/H
9:30 a.m. Sterilization by Endometrial Ablation - Dr. Connell (Ch) L University of Colorado State Medical Dr. Montgomery School Dr. D. Peterson Dr. Tanter
Project Manager: M. I. Perry and J. J. Speidel, PHA/POP
10:45 a.m. Morning Coffee -3
11:00 a.m. Progress Report by PAC Subcommittee Dr. Smucklkr (Ch) on Technology Dr. Montgomery Dr. D. Peterson Dr. Wishik Mr. Wittnebert
12:30 p.m. Lunch
1:45 p.m. Proposals for RAC Review
The Determinants of Developing Country Dr. D. Peterson (Ch) Irrigation Project Problems: A Multi- Dr. Heady factor Analysis for Improved Systems Dr. M. Peterson Operation and Performance - Cornell Mr. Wittnebert University
Project Managers: Gilbert Corey, TA/AGR and Leopold Mastrofini, SER/ENGR/OPNS
2:30 p.m. Socio-economic Analysis of Environ- Dr. Heady (Ch) mental Health Problems - Resources Dr. Carter for the Future Dr. D. Peterson Dr. Weller
Project Manager: J. Thompson, TA/H
3:00 p.m. Afternoon Coffee
3:15 p.m. Progress Report on Ongoing Project
Cost Efficiencies of Alternative Health ,ieasures - Government of Colombia
Project Manager: J. H. Davis, TA/H
3:45 p.m. General Discussion
5:00 p.m. i;J.urnment
Project and Subcommittee Assignments for
Research Advisory Committee Meeting
October 12-13, 1976
PROJECTS SUBCOMMITTEES
Food and Nutrition
Improvement of the Nutritive Quality and Dr. Whitney (Ch) Productivity of Barley for Semiarid Regions Mr. Ludington of the World - Montana State University Dr. D. Peterson Dr. M. Peterson
Development of Improved Sorghum - Physiology Dr. M. Peterson (Ch) of Yield and Stress Reaction - University of Dr. Ehrenreich Nebraska Dr. Falcon Dr. Whitney
Improvement of Grain Sorghum for Developing Dr. M. Peterson (Ch) Countries - Texas A&M Dr. Thorbecke Dr. Whitney Mr. Wittnebert
Poor Rural Households, Technical Change Dr. Heady (Ch) and Income Distribution in LDCs - Cornell, Dr. Montgomery Purdue and Michigan State Universities Dr. D. Peterson Dr. Tanter
The Determinants of Developing Country Dr. D. Peterson (Ch) Irrigation Project Problems: A Multifactor Dr. Heady Analysis for Improved Systems Operation and Dr. M. Peterson Performance - Cornell University Mr. Wittnebert
Population and Health
Pre-clinical Testing of a Promising New Dr. Weller (Ch) Antisch'stosomal Drug in Non-Human Primates Dr. Carter - University of Lowell Dr. Linder Dr. Schweigert
Cultivation of Human Malaria (Plasmodium Dr. Wishik (Ch) falciparum) and the Use of the Culture Dr. Carter for Experimental Immunizations of Monkeys Dr. Schweigert feller University Dr. Weller -2-
PROJECTS SUBCOMMITTEES
Population and Health (continued)
Sterilization by Endometrial Ablation Dr. Connell (Ch) - University of Colorado Dr. Montgomery Dr. D. Peterson Dr. Tanter
Socio-economic Analysis of Environmental Dr. Heady (Ch) Health Problems - Resources for the Future Dr. Carter Dr. D. Peterson Dr. Weller
&1IAFT
AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH ADVISORY COMMITTEE
Minutes of the Fifty-fourth Meeting May 24-25, 1976
Dr. Ralph Smuckler, Chairman, called the meeting to order at
9 a.m. He first called attention to the revised agenda which had been distributed to the members. He then introduced Mr. Curtis
Farrar, Assistant Administrator for Technical Assistance, who welcomed the new members and briefly reviewed the status of congressional and executive action on Foreign Assistance funding.
In response to a question about the status of Title XII of the
Foreign Assistance Act, he said there were no legal problems with its implementation and that the next step was appointment of the Board which was awaiting Presidential approval.
Dr. Erven Long, AA/TA, introduced the five new members on the
RAC. He announced with regret that Dr. Adams was leaving the RAC
following this meeting due to his assuming a new position in
Environmental Affairs with the North Carolina State government and
that Dr. Merrill had resigned following the last meeting. He also
noted that Administrator Parker was today appearing before the House
Subcommittee on Budget and was rescheduled to visit with RAG on
Tuesday morning.
Scheduling for future meetings was discussed and agreed upon
as follows:
Fall: October 12-13, 1976, definite. Winter: November 29-30p 1976, tentative. Scheduling problems, other than those discussed which might arise and create serious conflict, are to be called to attention of the
Research Office as soon as possible so the Fall meeting dates can be
confirmed. -3-
Effect of Protein-Calorie Interventions on Human Growth Retardation and Mortality Rates - Institute of Nutrition for Central America and Panama
Dr. Schweigert, chairman of the subcommittee composed of Dr.
Carter, Dr. Montgomery, and Dr. Linder, reviewed the project briefly as follows. The project is envisioned as a five year effort estimated to cost $2,288,020 with the first three years at a cost of
$1,498,600 requested for approval at this time. The issue proposed is how to provide critical nutrients through foods in the most effective manner at low cost to groups that are presumably malnourished and, at the same time, to obtain the most appropriate scientific data to evaluate the results. Five hypotheses are proposed for experimental analysis.
With the inclusion of a control group, the plan is to test these hypotheses across villages, within a village between pre-and post intervention periods, and within the same irdividual mother between successive pregnancies. Measurements emphasize birth rates, infant and second year mortality, nutritional status of nhildren less than three-years of age, morbidity, and general medical care. Evidence from a previous corn fortification study in which benefits showed
50% reduction of infant mortality gives considerable confidence that
the proposed design will show that some specific nutritional benefits
can be quantified.
Some statements are over optimistic as to the productivity of the
projects supported by AID on amino acid fortification. It is not
generally understood that the amino acid fortification of rice in
Thailand and of wheat in Tunisia have demonstrated specific benefits. -4-
Tile corn studies in Guatemala have been marginal. Reviewers of the
project have raised questions as to the scope and extent envisioned by
INCAP and All). The subcommittee does not feel confident to develop a model for the world based on one country. Although INCAP scientists
have made major contributions to experimental human nutrition, their
capability -,n applied nutrition research and food technology is too
C(omplimentary.
Subject to discussion and consideration of specific points, Dr.
Schweigert suggested funding Phase I and that RAC consider further
funding after 12 to 18 months. He expressed reluctance to make this
suggestion in consideration of long range planning for both AID and
INCAP, and also the greater commitment upon PAC.
Dr. Montgomery supported the subcommittee statement and emphasized
two questions. First, is there clinical evidence as to what kinds of
caloric and protein supplement have greatest effects on growth, etc?
If this is not known, then it should be determined before going to the
field. Second, do governments possess means to implement intervention
programs once they have been defined on a large economic scale? He
said this problem can be analyzed just as rigorously as the first question and is appropriate for a field study.
Dr. Linder asked if INCAP has the ability to effectively carry out
such a multi-variate study. Ile pointed out that with the maximum
possible savings of 72 infant deaths over six groups during a three
year period, it would be difficult to detect a significant and reliable
effect. He also expressed concern that the investigators will not be
able to effectively exploit the mass of data on the range of variables proposed. He concurred with the suggestion to approve only Phase I.
He also expressed concern, that because such approvals by the RAC are
considered presumptive for continued funding, the procedure is not
effective.
Dr. Schweigert read Dr. Carter's letter commenting on this proposal.
In summaty he favored approval of Phase I s suggested obove and
stressed that other locations and contractors shcoild be considered.
Mr. Ludington expressed concern .m jter all. variables could be
controlled as irnterided to obtain definitive results. He suggested
that review of the gerontological study at Iowa State sevEral years
ago may be useful to the in vestigators in their planning. He questioned
the matter of c.ost estimation for the intervention components and
saia that to be useful these materials must not cost more than present
sources and must not affect food or eating habits. This issue explains
why Incaparina failed.
Dr. Weller pointed out that this study is seeking answers which
cannot be found in a clinical exercise. In addition to nutrition, he
said it includes evaluation of other risks during the early years of
life. Although the groups are small for studying mortality rates, he
noted that otiher evaluations were also to be done. Because of the com
plex nature of protein-calorie malnutrition, he said it is necessary
to do the study under field risk challenges.
Dr. Ehrenreich indicated it would be difficult to code out the
independent and dependent variables and suggested concentration on
fewer items with larger groups may be helpful. Dr. Schweigert pointed
out that many of the variables would be monitored as controls rather -6
rather than for specific analytical purposes.
Dr. lCornstein, TA/N, reported that both AID and the World Bank are making large loans for nutri.tit progra-vs and for this reason better information is needed on ,7hat constitutes good nutrition.
This project, he said, is two milli,n aginst ten million and more dollars in loans. In respczise to the choice i INCaP for the study,
lie said that the probeu: was approxcihcd on a cnr:iiodity basis. Since
corn .is poOr, :r wftiiLe tin protci,, L ci,,o.ien. L tin
America seemed a noce logical location to do a corn feeding study than
did Africa. To a,-trch elsewhere nnd divide the study objectives
between countries could not be done without loosing some of the
comtpari.o:.ons. Lot, ,4 ,i r u i a:one in to imtproving opague-2 corn,
but very little effort has been given to evaluating it's utility.
Soy is available in Cuatemala , but: iL tust bV dtermined if it should
be used as defatted or normal flour. The clinical studies are planned
as pilot studies rather than a jump from the laboratory to the field.
The complexities and risks of the project are recognized, and AID has
been working on them. Pi;tasc, I o a,,r LtL inLo tle plan to determine
if all aspects were feasible before implementation in the field trial.
In response to Dr. M. Peterion's question on opaque-2 corn, Dr.
Hornstein St cd thLIat the objc-t..lye is to determine if nuch
protein is worth developing on a practical, basis. If so, then plant
breeders can pursue doluLion:.; to production problems. Dr. Whitney
asked if we were not already beyond opaque-2 corn studies with
animals. Dr. Btornstein said INCAP would do these to verify procedures
and to avoid toxicity and related problems rather than to determine nutritional aspects of growth. -7-
Dr. Yishik asked if INCAP was prepared to devote the necessary effort to managing this study and Dr. Hornstein indicated this matter had been discussed with the Director satisfactorily.
Dr. Schweigert asked how much time and money Phase I was expected
to require. Dr. Hornstein indicated aprroximately 18 months and
$650,000 would be needed for Phase I including sel2ction of sites,
establishment of health centers, acquisition of personnel, and estab
lishing procedure;, transportation, and evaluation. Dr. Schweigert
suggested this budget be closely scrutinized for possible reduction.
Dr. Long, referencing Dr. Linder's earlier question regarding
how RAC can relate to a monitoring role without interfering with the
funding processes, reported that AID policy is turning toward maximum
forward funding -36 as opposed to 18-24 months. This is a good
case, he said, where certain design problems must be determined, and
two routes appear possible. Establish a sub-group to be involved
with the project for evaluation and advise on continuation, or exercise
more specificly the deobligation responsibility when projects do not
progress satisfactorily. Dr. Rice, TA/H, indicated that assistance
and advice from RAC would be welcomed during Phase I.
Motion: That Phase I of the project be approved for a period of 18
months in an amount approximating $650,000 with the provision
that RAC suggestions concerning design, food sources, data
analysis, etc., be considered. It i understood that AID
staff will utilize advice from RAC member consultation during
Phase I, and any proposed extension will require RAC review
and action. Moved by Dr. Schweigert, and seconded by Mr. Ludington
Dr. Adams said he would prefer a motion for more or less support as some RAC members may be unfavorable to the project. Dr. Rice, in clarification of the design, said the first 18 months would be occupied with feasibility aspects of the study. If it is not possible to get control of Lhe independent variables, then this design must be revised.
RAC assistance will therefore be most useful and critical during
Phase I. Dr. Schweigert said it is understood that AID staff will utilize advice from RAC during Phase I and that any change in design will be reviewed and approved by RAC.
Vote: Passed with one nay vote. The Determinantsof Developing Country Irrigation Project Problems: A Multifactor Analysis for Improved System Operation and Performance - Cornell University
Dr. Thorbecke, Cornell University, absented himself from the meeting to avoid any possible conflict of interest.
Dr. Peterson, Chairman of the Subcommittee composed of Dr. Heady,
Dr. M. Peterson, and Mr. Wittnebert reviewed the project as follows.
As background Dr. D. Peterson pointed out that Asia, with more than half of the world's population, has only about 20% of the arable land resources which is 80 to 90% utilized. Much of this comes under the influence of the tropical monsoon with distinct wet and dry seasons.
They must, through irrigation, insure against drought to avoid famine.
Reasonably successful indigenous irrigation systems have evolved. How ever, the large, externally designed systems have a rather poor record of achievement. There are many reasons beyond the physical character istics of the systems for this poor performance. Since there is no way to meet the agricultural requirements of these heavily populated areas without increased irrigation, this proposal addresses a very
important matter.
This project proposes to deal with the socio-economic factors and
their interactions with the physical characteristics at the project
level. The research objectives are to 1) describe, analyzef and explain
the complex interactions among these components; 2) develop analytical
tools for identifying critical systems interactions; 3) identify system -10 design and operation implications; and 4) identify planning policy implications.
A planning workshop including host country participation will insure a workable methodology. Following this analytical stage further planning with host countries will refine the procedures. The investigators appear well qualified, and there is also an impressive list of consultants representing important disciplines.
The stated goal is to increase water use efficiency, but this may, or may not be fully congruent with more basic goals, e.g., improving the income of individual farmers. Significant questions are: to what extent will constraints external to the projects, such as national policy, be considered and how far can one move into these? Will the Asian Development
Bank and the Agricultural Development Council be involved in these con
sideraLions?
The Subcommittee is generally favorable to the project, but believes it could be improved. Suggestions for discussion include confining the project to monsoon Asia, clarifying the socio-economic methodology and including political science expertise on the team.
Mr. Wittnebert said the consumer oriented objectives of the project were very good and that the efforts of staff and contractor were apparent in the quality of the proposal.
Although he was quite favorable to the project Dr. Heady suggested that a more complete definition of the socio-economic methodology should be given as there are many reasons for inefficient water distribution and use. The neavy use of research assistants should be re-evaluated, and perhaps more social science emphasis given in the leadership. -11-
Dr. M. Peterson pointed out that one can manipulate the variables and data input to provide whatever conclusion, desirable on irrigation economics. fie referenced an earlier example in the western U.S. to
illustrate traps to be avoided.
Dr. Montgomery said that in the socio-economic methodology it is
important to get the political analyst to attach social content analysis
to decision analysis. He indicated his belief that the Cornell political
science consultants mentioned in the proposal are qualified to work on
that problem if they are given access to that phase of the study.
Dr. Adams expressed his reservation whether this task could be done
within the estimated budget. He also expressed concern that host countries
often want the money but do not want projects evaluated. Therefore, he
believed this would be a high rist activity with little chance for success.
Dr. Swanson expressed concern that examples of the quoted critical
indicators were not given and that there was no performance indicator
which dealt with equity distribution. He asked if third country testing
would be included. Dr. Ehrenreich endorsed the systems approach and
thought this expertise could be successfully incorporated into such an
analysis. Dr. Smuckler pointed out that Cornell has political scientists
who have worked in this area, and he would encourage their involvement if
the project moves forward.
Dr. D. Peterson acknowledged that the budget is modest, but since
this is pioneering work it may be best to begin modestly. It is necessary
to develop a critical mass. -12-
Dr. Corey, TA/AGR, pointed out that a significant point of the project is that it will look at systems as they exist, and there is not to be any juggling of inputs. lie emphasized that this will be the first project of it's kind in the world and will be a systems rather than a bottle-neck approach. He expressed agreement with the comments on methodology. A significant key to success of the effort is involvement of local people because foreigners cannot successfully go in and get the necessary data - this is why the workshops are necessary. Validity of the project rests upon reliability of the data. Restriction to the Asian monsoon area is desirable. Too often irrigation systems merely dispose of water. Not enough attention is given to getting the water from the delivery system to the crop. This project will look into the reasons for this inadequacy. The project aims to see if certain interventions do carry over to other systems. The investigators believe it will take time more than money to do this task. Commenting on the involvement of research'I assistants he said these would be top level advanced gradua e students and employed wisely in the Cornell tradition. Before the project would be implemented he said top considera tion would be given to host country locations. He reported the Asia Bureau is favorable to the proposal.
Dr. D. Peterson asked if there should be more clarification of methodology prior to approval and how a delay until October would affect the project plan. Dr. Hesser, TA/AGR) indicated it would be possible to sharpen the methodology with greater political science involvement and re-evaluation of the budget for review in October without disrupting -13
the planning horizon. The consensus of the subcommittee was that
Dr. Hesser's suggestion be adopted.
Motion: That AID staff consider suggestions of the RAC
and present a revised proposal at the October
(RAC) meeting.
Vote: Carried with 10 aye and 5 nay votes.
The Chairman made clear that the negative votes should be interpreted
as a desire to approve the project without further referral, therefore the the project goes forth with a strong affirmation for acceptance with
suggested considerations. Dr. D. Peterson said he wanted to emphasize
the concensus of the subcommittee for this project and to compliment AID
staff on its development. Dr. Long complimented the RAC on their review
and action on the project. -14-
Improvement of Winter Wheat for Developing Countries, Based on Hybridization of Spring and Winter Forms - Oregon State University
Dr. Maurice Peterson, Chairman of the Subcommittee composed
of Mr. Ludington, Dr. D. Peterson, and Dr. Whitney reviewed the
project as follows. Dr. Peterson commented first on the relation
ship between AID plant breeding research projects and those of the
International Centers, He noted that this project has a general
objective similar to the Nebraska project. The program is proposed
for three years with an estimated cost of $943,000, but it is recog
nized that it will require 6 to 10 years to accomplish the objectives
as envisioned. The proposal is to carry out hybridization between
winter and spring wheats, which can be done effectively, in order to
transfer desirable plant, disease, and seed characteristics between
the two gene pools for the improvement of both. Four issues should
be considered.
1) The project describes an activity focused on improved
varieties without giving specific goals. The procedure is not new as essentially every important winter wheat variety in the U. S.
includes spring wheat germ plasm. There is no disagreement that wheat breeders should cross the two types, but this activity alone
is a questionable basis for a major project of this magnitude. 2)
The underdeveloped countries have very limited acreage of winter wheats, thus there is a significant question as to who will primarily benefit from the project. 3) There is a question of alternative support.
AID is providing operational support to CIMMYT and is supporting the
Nebraska wheat project. The USDA is supporting wheat research in Oregon -15
and the Rockefeller Foundation is also supporting a training program there. This request is presumably to replace the R. F. research funding plus more. 4) Is the justification sufficient for the level of funding? Dr. M. Peterson said that while the project would be useful, his own responses to these questions would not give it a very high priority, and he suggested that a more modest proposal for
funding would be appropriate until AID reaches a consensus as to how
plant breeding projects will be handled.
Dr. D. Peterson said the network chart helped him to focus on
the total wheat breeding picture. It is clear that this procedure
will bring the two gene pools together and also that the U. S. will
benefit. There is no question about the competence of the Oregon
staff or the suitability of the climatic spectrum there for this
work. lie raised the question of whether wheat breeders need to
continue broadening the genetic base or do more fine tuning for specific
environments. Also he asked if the breeders at CIMMYT Nebraska, and
Oregon has a broad enough base of LDC environmental information to have
optimally designed the project.
Dr. Whitney noted that CIMMYT had requested this project as a
continuation or expansion of an ongoing program. He pointed out that
the 3 Oregon test centers have maritime climates in summer with all
appropriate benefits. However, many varieties developed out of Oregon
are not adapted to the continental U. S. Great Plains environments.
lie asked where the 40 country nurseries were located and if the issue
was hard red or hard white winter wheats. He indicated the graduate
training program is of continuing importance. -16-
Mr. Ludington endorsed Dr. M. Peterson's comments and emphasized the question as to where winter wheat was important in the LDCs and if barley and triticale were competing with it.
Dr. Schweigert said he was apprehensive as to the precision of what the project was about and emphasized the research objective question
Dr. M. Peterson pointed out that the breeding materials may be more valuable than information developed. He noted that, from among 24 HS and PhD's trained previously, only one paper had been published.
Dr. Ehrenreich asked how this effort would dovetail into our
U.S. national effort, and indicated there may be much duplication of effort especially in the fine tuning efforts. Dr. Smuckler indicated there was some indication of this relationship in the network diagram.
Dr. D. Peterson indicated fine tuning of the basic genetics in relation to climate was needed as an alternative to massive field testing.
Dr. Hesser, TA/AGR, commenting on AID philosophy in relation to the International Centers, said they lack new input resources due to their limited size and that the U. S. and others can fill this need.
He acknowledged that it is nore general than most AID projects, but it does provide an internationally oriented staff which would otherwise probably be dissipated. It fits the Title XII model, but it is still too early to develop it in that form. Elements of the project are worthy of support, and AID is interested in the benefits to both
spring and winter wheats for the LDCs. -17
Dr. Leng, TA/AGR, spoke to the various technical questions.
In North Africa, it is difficult to differentiate between the spring and winter wheats in many areas. There are
15 to 20 million hectares of winter wheat in the LDCs. CIMMYT has a massive made it quite clear that hybridization needs to be done on the scale as a base for their program and while they could sponsor manage it Oregon project they definitely prefer that AID do this and in this directly. He confirmed that there is mostly development developed as research and development project. Nurseries do include be funded some well as lesser developed countries and perhaps should in this effort. other way. However, more is obtained than is given variety The basic goal is improved varieties, and the general which can then has a definite place in material development for LDCs
do their own fine tuning. As an example, India it as their took amber out of a mixture sent there and developed Oregon would be the variety. If you are choosing one state, he said, also pointed out that most beneficial for AID recipient countries. He and Oregon AID did resist taking over the graduate training program,
then went to Rockefeller Foundation for this support. from the full He explained that the large travel budget results and visits to the team traveling to Mexico for nursery work each year, is large due to the international nurseries. The publication budget Dr. Long emphasized cost of publishing the extensive nursery results. -18
that cost of publication should definitely not stand in the way of dissemination of information.
Dr. M. Peterson asked what other crop priorities were being considered and if this project would affect them. Dr. Leng reported that two sorghum projects would be submitted for extension, a new pearl millet project would be proposed, and other projects were being scrutinized. Dr. Hesser said funding of this proposal would not impair newly envisioned projects throuh FY-78.
Motion: That the project be approved with the provisions that:
(a) objectives be idenLified more specificallyp and (b)
AID staff review the budget request for appropriate
reductions in the total funding.
Moved by Dr. M. Peterson and seconded by Dr. Whitney
Vote: Unanimous approval -20
years, beginning with the funding of the original Texas - ICA - CIAT
project. She reported that the RF was pleased that a good collaborative
arrangement had developed between the two groups and that the training
program had resulted in the addition of a number of skilled workers
to the field. Later on they provided a grant to the University of
Illinois to develop grepter excellence and depth in research. She
said this appears to have been a good decision and RF was enthusiastic
that AID would support the ongoing activity. She strongly endorsed
the expansion.
Dr. Adams endoraed approval of the expansion and asked what had
been done regarding item 5 of the peer report, and the suggested phase
out of the Texas project at the termina tion of the present contract.
Dr. Wishik endorsed the report and expansion.
Dr. Beck, TA/AGR, spoke for the project and in response to Dr. Adams
reported that expansion of the hemoprotozoal research network had been
initiated through preliminary discussions (peer report item 5). Phase
out of the Texas project was under consideration, he said and would
depend upon the outcome of field evaluations and re-evaluation of their
possible future role in this area.
Motion: That the projec- augmentation be approved as requested.
Moved by Dr. Schweigert and seconded by Dr. Connell.
Vote: Unanimous approval. -19-
Research on Hemoprotozoal Diseases of Food Producing Livestock in LDCs - Texas A & M University.
Dr. Swanson, University of Illinois, absented himself from the meeting to avoid any possible conflict of interest.
Dr. Schweigert, Chairman of the Subcommittee composed of Drs. Adams,
Connell, and Wishik reviewed the project as follows. The proposal is
to expand the support of an existing contract with Texas A & M to pro vide for a comparative evaluation of two inoculums, one developed by
the University of Illinois and one developed by Texas A & M, for the
control of anaplasmosis with an estimated additional cost of $75,000.
The techniques will be evaluated in comparative field experiments and
require approximately one year for completion. The major costs will
be for experimental animals, for personnel, and for other direct costs
associated with the trials. The experimental comparison of these two
inoculums is quite consistent with the priorities developed through
the peer review of this project in the fall of 1975 and the overall
work plan which was developed and discussed in the RAC last December.
A jointly developed proposal by the Texas and Illinois investigators
under coordination and planning with the International Center in Cali
and the local Colombian groups appears most appropriate. He strongly
endorsed approval of the expansion.
Dr. Connell said this project was of key interest to the Rockefeller Foundation. They have been involved in
supporting hemoprotozoal disease research for almost 10 -21-
World Fertility Survey - International. Statistical Institute
Dr. Montgomery, Chairman of the Subcommittee consisting of Drs.
Anderson, Connellp and Wishik, made the following report: This projects at 39 million dollars, is perhaps the largest survey in history, is also the largest social science project, and perhaps the largest total project on which RAG has been invited to comment. Moreover, it is intended to provide intelligence on what is probably the most important problem of the
twentieth century. Its size and importance, its prestige, and the fact that
are its participants read like a blue-book of demographers and statisticians all intimidating to a lay reviewer; but the fact that it has already spent
over 7 million dollars and aims at spending more denies us the luxury of
taking our responsibilities lightly. Yet in spite of our efforts not to
be intimidated, the subcommittee reviewing the project has reached the
obvious conclusion: the funding should be voted as proposed with only
one or two minor questions regarding details of management an" future
courses of action.
In reaching this conclusion we have tried to ask the hard questions
and in order to sharpen our discussion, I will put them in their highest
form:
1. Why has it cost so much to produce so little, and why is
it taking so long to complete the task?
2. Why was it necessary to have two headquarters instead of
one., and why have so many advisors, consultants, meetings,
and reviews been necessary?
3. What opportunities to increase our understanding of population
dynamics have been neglected or overlooked, and what losses
have been sustained as a result? .4. Ilow many of the country studies are likely to be essentially
useless because of limitations imposed by the government
or by inadequate staffing?
5. What are the prospects that the World Fertility Survey
will perpetuate itself as a demographic Frankenstein's
monster, gobbling up resources that nght be used better
in other population programs?
6. What does this enormous recapitulation of the census
gathering process have to do with research, or with
institution-building for research ?
question 1: On costs, outputs, and delays. Although over
$7 million have been spent so far, the project has produced only two reports, both on the same country, and oneof these discusses the statistical sources of error in the survey. Most of the other publications read either like a house organ for potential collaborators, or like a prospectus for potential subscribers. The number of conferences and conventions, and their exotic locations, seem excessive on first inspection.
A second look will change these perceptions. Output at the mid-course of any large project is likely to be small, especially when the first stages involve planning and preparation--hence, in this case, conferences to insure against error and to enlist the cooperation of possible participants. An evaluation report costed out the locations of these conferences and four.' no evidence of the Lockheed syndrome. Nor does evidence permit us to say whether the conferences were excessive in number, and if so which ones could have been omitted; whether the enormous list of participants -23 and cooperating countries could have been smaller, and which one:a might have been lost if which conferences had not taken place, cannot be estimated now. Certainly, when the project started there was reason to be apprehensive of a colossal failure which would have been perceived if certain regions and countries had abstained.
Even the professional conferences at which the survey instruments were devised (surely the most inefficient procedure ever used to choose and display so few words) are rather hard to criticize in
retrospect, Piveni the risks attendant on a poorly designed set of
in.erview schedules on such a large project. There may still be
hidden jokers in the deck--for example, a poor translation or
unknown connotations of individual words in far-off countries--but
these risks are also being reduced systematically through the use
of pilot surveys in advance of the country field studies.
Even by second-guessing the operation, it is not obvious how
the costs to date could have been reduced very much. It is hard
to decide which layer of the onion might have been superfluous.
Question 2: On the dual headquarters and the headquarters role:
to Of the eight million dollars committed so far, 5.3 is assigned
the"core" and only 2.7 for country surveys. The core costs include
2.89 million for staff and consultants, .98 million for travel,
for .21 for :onferences, and .03 for honoraria. The amounts spent
salaries, consultancies, and travel, might suggest unpleasant
images of the social worker driving through the squatter settlements
in a Mercedes. But these images, too, are deceptive. Their salaries
were compared with UN equivalent standards and found about on target-
perhaps below that admittedly inflated level, given the cupposedly -24
temporary nature of the employment. Travel is certainly essential
in this project. The analytical work cannot begin in London until
the corTry studies have been completed, and then it has no value unless the. are done carefully and correctly. Assuring this
kind of control requires constanft travel to the countries carrying
out the ,ield studies. Such travel is far from self-indulgence:
anyone who believes travel is a luxury item today has not been in
an internationi arport lately.
The dual headquarters issue is another matter. Historically,
it is easy to oplain: ISI, a distinguished body with a high the international reputation, recruited the original staff for
London office and -ot it strLed. The cost of operatinp in London
was probably no more than it would have been in the Netherlands, situation except for minor travel and communications charges. But the
may now be changing: only administrative functions are now
performed by the 10-man office at the Hague at the present time.
Yet ISI is now requesting a I percent fee (plus direct and indirect This charges) for "the development of future research programs."
proposal seems quite unreasonahle to me.
There Is a tendency for handlers of money to get the impression
that they are entitled to a share of it. RAC has learned to its seems to sorrow that as our task enlarges, our pay declines; ISI
have learned the reverse lesson, that as the function declines,
the take-home pay should increase. So far as the record shows,
ISI's major function has now been performed. Perhaps the administrative has responsibilities should now switch to the London office (which to be a full-time staff of 25-30, and which has its own head and seems -25 developin a professional reputation of high quality). No fee
for "the development of future programs" should be paid to any
institutonl simply because so much money is being channeled
through it.to a project initiated and conducted outside its doors.
Question 3: On the opportunity costs: Valuable as the
project will be both to population planning offices in various
locations and to future researchers, there will also be important
lacunae in the data. According to the last annual report, of
the 50 countries that are participating or thinking of participating
in the project, only 10 are expecting to use the abortion module,
only 11 the community factors module, only 9 the module on family
planning, only 13 the module on fertility regulation, only 5 the
mortality module, and only 5 the economics module. Even the standard
questionnaire form is not identical in every country.
Furthermore, ethnic and regional factors will not be explored
in this study, despite their obvious importance (as the Soviet
Union discovered when it became apparent that the Asian, and
predominantly Moslem, sectors of the Union were getting several
times their share of "heroine mother awards" and having several
times the average family size of the European elements in the Soviet
Union, much to the distress of the Politboro elite). There will
probably be no data on several important parts of the world (Indi#
is still a possibility, Luc no one mentions China in connection
with the survey). Finally, for reasons of economy and getting a
maximum number of countries for the money involved, the sample
sizes will be relatively small (average of 5,000-10,000 individuals
per country regardless of size), to get much representation of the
various different minority situations prevailing in different countries. -26-
These losses are perhaps irreversible, and certainly regrettable.
But most of them were inevitable, given the fact that individual governments are responsible for the actual country studies. Perhaps
they could have been pressed harder by the core staff. In any case some of the opportunity costs may yet be recouped, at least in part, by future surveys which this effort will make possible.
The only loss that may have been avoidable in this project is in the comparative analysis element that has not yet begun.
For reasons that are hard to reconstruct, except possibly because of the professional bias of the managing and advisory leaders, no basic desirt for the comparative analysis of these country experiences was prepared in those early conferences, or is even now in existence. Given the resources devoted to planning and preparing for the operation, this oversight earns ISI and the advisory participants a demerit, to say the least. Comparative, cross-country studies are no mystery, and there was plenty of expertise available for insuring that proper precautions were taken to develop data that will illuminate cross-country experience.
question 4: On possible country failures: No answer can be derived from reports now on hand as to which, if any, of the country studies will prove to be useless, but if some surveys are incompetently performed they are most likely to be in those countries that have no demographic data at all at present. I counted 19 participating oft countries/which there are no fertility data (or at least nothing since
1965). It may not be true that some data are better than none, especially in the case of either demographic or public policy studies--and most especially when both are involved. But it cannot be doubted that first efforts at data gathering in such situations -27 are likely to be succeeded by better efforts later on.
Prudent procedures have been devised to cope with the fact that participating countries themselves chose the agencies and institutions that are to cooperate in the survey. This provision would have been hard to circumvent, especially in the early planning days when the World Fertility Survey was perceived as a potential threat to sovereign sensibilities. Any international cooperative v-nture has to assume a minimum of good faith among the participants.
The names of the participating country institutions and individuals are listed in the annual report and elsewhere, and they do seem plausible. W.F.S. is making excellent use of its technical assistance staff by rotating assignments, which should provide some protection against errors and misjudgments that might otherwise arise out of
familiarity with the country or excessive specialization.
Question 5. On prospects of a Frankenstein: The project cannot
be responsibly stopped now. 4y estimate is that only about 11
countries could be included in the final report if no further field
work were undertaken. Perhaps 10 more are now in some preparatory
state that would probably have to be discontinued if the project were
disapproved now. The countries still in the wings will almost
certainly bring the total up to about 40 by 1980. The result of
stopping now would be to provide only minor coverage of Africa;
several large countries with important or promising population programs
would have to go it alone or forgo it.
The present renewal proposal is not a manifestation of the
Frankenstein phenomenon. The response to the project has been
greater than was anticipated, as a result of which the staff is now -28 so overcommitted that countries have to take their place in the waiting line. In several cases (notably the Philippines, India and
Brazil) the governments have requested the delay of field work until after 1977 for internal reasons. London can process data for only a maximum of 16 countries at a time (it will not, of course, reach that maximum for another two or three years). This renewal request is not just another example of the Parkinsonian bureaucratic perseveration.
But these two considerations--the cost of discontinuing the program and the unexpected response--do not discount the possibility of yet another round of surveys. If the international climate is favorable to such an effort, it is easy to foresee another set of studies that will provide accurate longtitudinal data and more details that had been considered too sensitive for inclusion in this first effort.
But the future will make that decision. Nothing in this renewal represents a commitment to Round Two.
Question 6: On whether this is research: A precondition to research, rather than research, is the answer. Granted that this
is not a perfect instrument for research purposes. About half
the countries, or fewer, seem to be using only the core questionnaire, which means that important relationships cannot be examined.
Moreover, the sample size, 5,000-10,000, is likely to be too small
to permit significant analysis of some potentially important regional and other differences. And other group relationships that might have been substituted for, or added to, regional variations, such as
religion, ethnics, and language data, has been omitted from the core
instruments, and left to country discretion. All of these -29 factors, as already pointed out, seem unavoidable, except possibly the first two. It is possible that if the research design had not been dominated by professional demographers and statisticians, and if the value of other factors had been perceived more clearly by the W.F.S. staff, a greater emphasis would have been placed on them in courtr negotiations at the working level. Perhaps when and if a Round Two is undertaken, a deeper look will be possible.
As to the research institution building, the program design calls for host-country institutions to carry out the field research, a process which will enhance and reinforce their capacity to carry out further census and demographic studies. Complaints that these groups have not gained the maximum experience because they did not design the questionnaire instruments are futile. There were already as many cooks preparing this stew as the kitchen could accommodate, and in any case, the need for standard country data far outweighed the marginal advantage of country participation as a learning process.
Our committee recommendatlon in short, is for approval, with the strong hint to the staff that it take a tough bargaining stand with ISI both as to its continued role in the operation, or at least its funding by AID, and as to the proposed one percent fee. -30-
Dr. Connell agreed with Dr. Montgomery, with these additional concerns:
(1) The project appears to be slow in getting started. What is the reason for this? (2) There are reportedly some problems in module development and utili zation. Is this actually the case? (3) What will become of the data? Will they be made available in a form useful for a variety of potential users? (4) As to the future, what will be the prerequisites for a second round? How will tlhe decisions be made as to who will do repeat surveys and other activities? (5) Is the.-e an adequate training component in the program to leave a residual local rapability for future studies in each of the partici pating countries? Dr. Wishik stated that there is no question about the overall idea as a worthy one. However, how much of the burden should be carried by AID?
Is there any reasonable alternative between the extremes of large conferences and technical expertise? Have any changes been indicated based on the experience so far? What information is there on the production of new methodologies? Possibly the 1% fee "for the development of future research programs" may provide for potential spinoffs which should not be lost. Lastly, with reference to the future, perhaps a follow-on survey may not be the answer. How can the findings be translated into some mechanism for ongoing surveillance on fertility behavior?
Dr. Heady asked about the relation of this project to the RAND type of analysis discussed in the recent RAC review of this problem?
James W. Brackett, Chief of Demographic and Economic Analysis,
PHA/POP, responded to specific questions. On the overhead, this is necessitated by the extensive field support required. On the dual head-quarters, while it might be desirable to reduce the Hague by some staff movement to London, this would be upsetting to ISI. On the fee both AID and the UN have taken no position, there is no precedent for this request or its compliance. On the use of modules, many decisions have yet to be made. The earlier decision was to proceed with some specific -31
surveys before completed modules were available. There has been no force on any country to use any of the modules. However, they are now moving
toward incorporation of many of the salient questions into the core
questionnaire. Pretests are now going forward in Panama, Turkey, and
India toward the design of community oriented questionnaires. The London
staff has not pushed hard enough for the use of some modules such as,
family planning, fertility control, and abortion. On sample size, there
are problems of concern for sub-populations; and sampling errors are quite
large. On the matter of the second round, them are now plans for a second
survey in 78-79 in Indonesia, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. With respect to
spinoffs, AID is designing a prevalence survey; the basic approach is
moiing out of the clinics and into commercial channels with emphasis on the
characteristics of the users. A vital registration program to improve
both birth and death data is being worked on for 1980 censuses. The WFS
has developed an edit program which will have great value in processing
returns. With respect to country activities, many are expected to take
off on their own; software will be available, also the core and modules.
With respect to tbe RAND-type analysis planning as to the types of appro
priate analyses and how to go about it are under way for country level,
in depth, and inter-regional comparative studies.
Richard Cornelius PHA/POP, commented that the cross country analyses
will be user-oriented rather than scholarly studies, but will proviJe for
systematic comparisons. Methodological findings are to be discussed in
an October evaluation of what has been learned with respect to quality
control and tailoring of procedures to individual country requirements.
Dr. Connell questioned if any thought had been given to multi-lateral
funding for the second round surveys. Mr. Cornelius indicated that they
are now trying for other donors, and in five cases, including the United -32-
Kingdom, Canada, and Norway have broader support.
Dr. Montgomery pointed out that AID is not running this international program, and consequently, has to accept some decisions which may appear to be
unreasonable from its own point of view, e.g., key questions in the core ques
tionnaire, comparative analyses, etc. However, there appears to be increasing
acceptance of the functional approach in contrast to the more traditional
demographic approach.
Motion: That the project extension be approved for support as proposed.
Moved by Montgomery; seconded by Connell.
Vote: Unanimous approval. -33-
Enhancement of Lactational Infertility and Infant Nutrition - Johns Hopkins University
Dr. Wishik, chairman of the subcommittee composed of Drs.
Carter, Connell, and Linder, reviewed this project proposed for a three year period at an estimated cost of $986,164. He first summarized for new RAC members the concepts of the project revised on request of the March RAC. *iesuggested that Phase I should be limited to the clinical studies in Baltimore which would address the question initially raised by the RAC, "will the treatment be harmful?" This would place emphasis on the detection of aberrant thyroid effects and include
1) developing an imunobioassay test for TRH in human milk and 2) testing for TRH and T4 in the blood of women receiving different dosage levels. Testing for elevation of basal prolactin level and assessment of ovarian steroid activity would also be helpful. He said essential components in preparation for field trials are 1) the measurement of spontaneous levels of TRH and T4 among lactating women and 2) standardized laboratory procedures. Other studies proposed under phase I should be omitted, and sample sizes and numbers of tests reuvaluated for reduction in numbers.
For Phase Il he suggested that the Chile study be eliminated and selected parts of the Bangladesh work be initiated as the first part of the field trials.
The Phase III Matiab study in Bangladesh was considered reasonable with the suggestion that thyroid-related blood testing among women who develop elevated pulse rates or other suspicious symptoms should -34
be done at least on a sample basis. The general reservation to the overall concept of using synthetic hormone to prolong infertility was restated.
Dr. Wishik said the question of whether suckling rather than milk volume may be the key element in the chain of reactions that maintains anovulation, amcnorrhea, and infertility is not new, but is intriguing enough to warrant more serious consideration in this proposal. If the hypothesis was confirmed, and if OTRH can stimulate milk pro duction just enough to give psychological acceptance of suckling by the infant-mother partners, it would be important. In the event, there would be no claim for promotion of infant nutrition, even though the baby would be getting a little more milk, and there could be no accusation that contraception was at the further nutritional expense of undernourished mothers. He believed that development of a mass method for fertility modification in this way would be a more attractive possibility.
Dr. Connell said she viewed this as a two phase project and agreed that the Chile study could be omitted. Because we do not know what this hormone will do to undernourished women, she expressed reluctance about proceeding with approval of the field trial until results of the clinical trials are known. In spite of the administrative inconvenience, she suggested that approval of the field trial phase be delayed until the work on puerperal intermediary metabolism was completed in approxi mately eight months. She noted that there was no clear picture of the demographic effect as requested. She also suggested the $112,000 for equipment and the principal investigator's heavy involvement in Phase I -35
could be decreased without affecting the project.
Dr. Linder suggested the demographic response was insufficient and raised three points: 1) The biological effect of breast feeding on infertility needs clarification; 2) What is the net effect on popu lation since only a small number of women lactating at any one time? and 3) this study seems to counter the trend of the times to shorten the lactation period. He said the original intent of RAC was to
take an in depth evaluation of this problem and emphasized that a
professional demographer be contracted to do this. He also expressed
relictance to approve the field trials before completion of the
clinical studies in Baltimore.
Dr. Speidel, PHA/POP/R, expressed appreciation for the carefully
prepared analyses of the revised proposal and said he could disagree
very little with Dr. Wishik's report. In response to other questions
he said it would be quite appropriate to insure that the Baltimore
safety studies are applicable in Bangladesh. Also, if the RAC
wishes to prohibit continuity between Phases I and II, the population
office would abide with the restriction. Regarding the rationale
for demographic impact he pointed out that the project was proposed
as a result of requests from the field for insuring infertility at
the post-partum stage due to a failure of other procedures. Better
assurance of infertility is the key factor, he said and lengthing of
lactation period is a secondary key. The demographic evaluation is
not intended to be absolute but was given by Johns Hopkins to indicate
potential for impact. The method was never intended as an ultimate
solution, but only as a beneficial adjunct. The project is consistent, -36
he said, with the congressional mandate to integrate health, nutrition, and family planning in the AID program.
Dr. Wishik pointed out that although the project may appear simple, the implications and modifications could be far reaching and these should be kept in mind. He agreed it should be looked at as a supplementary procedure.
Motion:
1. Studies in Phase I in Baltimore be approved with parti
cular focus on thyroid-rolated side effects encompassing
(a) a new immunobiossay test for TRH in human milk, (b)
testing for TRH and T4 in blood of women receiving OTRH,
(c) testing for elevation of basal prolactin level,
(d) assessing ovarian steroid hormone activity, (e)
measurement of spontaneous TRH and T4 levels among
lactating women, and (f) standarization of laboratory
procedures for field trials; and exclusion of nutrition
and metabolism studies with corresponding reduction in
budget.
2. Budgetary provision be made for possible later field phase
in Bangladesh, but not in Chile, including attention to
the thyroid question among undernourished women.
3. Prior to initiation of Phase II a revised proposal and
budget be prepared on the basis of Phase I results and
reviewed by RA.
4. AID obtain independent consultation on estimation of the
potential demographic impact of the proposed method under -37
different levels of effectiveness and practice, and
try to obtain results for reporting at the time of RAC
review of the Phase II proposal.
Moved by Dr. Wishik, and seconded by Dr. Linder.
Dr. Linder noted that the demographic consideration is not a condition for continuation to the field trials but is a part of the total concern. Dr. D. Peterson asked if the demographic evaluation could be adequately made without the biological results of the project.
Dr. Speidel said this could be accomplished through simulation evaluation. In answer to a budget question from the chairman, Dr.
Speidel said a line budget would be prepared, but he could not provide a dollar figure for the motion. Dr. Connell noted that the motion implies that the Chile studies will be dropped. Dr. Long asked what status Dr. Wishik's report would have as part of this action. Dr.
Speidel indicated it would provide a detailed guideline for revision of the project and have specific value in carrying out the RAC recom mendation. In response to Dr. D. Peterson he said the report was compatible with the population office program and that Dr. Wishik deserves much thanks for the effort and input.
Vote: Unanimous approval. -38
Socio-Economic Analysis of Environmental Health Problems (New).- Resources for the Future
Dr. Heady, Chairman of the Subcommittee composed of Drs. Adams,
Carter and D. Peterson reviewed this project proposed for a period of
18 months with an estimated cost of $128,000. The stated purposes of the project are to 1) expand a Schistosomiasis Transmission
Simulation (STS) model into a methodology which would be useful to nationai platiiers in determining socio-economic impact, in cost benefit terms, of the presence of schistosomiasis in areas of water resource development and 2) assist AID in preparing, for each water project, environmental impact statements acceptable under the National
Environmental Policy Act.
AID considers this proposal as a response to the initiative announced by the Secretary of State to the U.N. in September 1974 that the U.S. would soon propose a concerted effort to control schistosomiasis.
Earlier (1972) a joint AID/WHO "Symposium on the Future of Schistosomiasis
Control" recommended that economic impact studies he made of this problem.
Very little attention has been given to the adverse effects of schistosomiasis on human health and its reflections in decreased human productivity and increased medical costs. In projects such as this, reduced productivity and increased health costs would become a part of the total project costs over time, and the cost-benefit ration would be modified accordingly. Alternatively the water system, at some cost, might be modified to prevent schistosomiasis and thereby eliminate these health and associated costs. -39-
Basic assumptions of the model are that : 1) there are relationships between health inputs and socio-economic development projects that can
be related uantitatively; and 2) both the costs and benefits of each
component of various mixes of preventative and curative schistosomiasis
abatement prograr,,s can be identified, and a cost-benefit model can be
derived as a useful planning tool. Dr. Heady pointed out that although
the model may be equally applicable in various countries, the equation
coefficients may vary with environments with the result that the pro
posed Iranian application would be country specific and have little
relevance elsewhere. Drs. Heady and Carter both questioned the proposed
Iranian project site because the intensity of infection is light and
rate of transmission is low, which essentially reduce their costs of
control. The level and manner of discounting, Dr. Heady noted, is
not apparent in the model. He asked if standard benefit/cost analysis
procedures used by AID and the World Bank would be appropriate. The
investigator may have underestimated the time required to complete
the tasks and also overlooked some costs which are not implied in the
analysis.
Dr. Adams commented that the project is really concerned with
schistosomiasis control and focused on cost-benefits. He questioned
if this task could be accomplished because of difficulties in
quantifying infection levels. The proposal to do the field research
serially he thought would be a more costly procedure. He accepted
the concept of the study, but suggested AID staff should rework the
approach and consider anotrier contractor if necessary.
Dr. Weller also pointed out that in an area of low incidence, such
as exists in the proposed study area, it is difficult to determine if -40 a subject is infected. He said that urine egg density, because it varies with time of day is questionable without additional infor mation, and also raised several questions about the Iranian population sample structure. He questioned the simplicity of the model and validity of basic assumptions such as immunity.
The investigator's qualifications in the area of cost-benefit analysis are not documented, and Dr. D. Peterson expressed concern whether the task could be done. He said the project is open-ended, and asked where boundaries would be drawn.
Dr. Swanson asked how such cost-benefit analysis fit into LDC d.cision functions.
Speaking for the project Dr. Lee Howard, TA/H, said these comments had been helpful and expressed appreciation for the committee's effort. He acknowledged that a number of things need to be done on this complex problem, and stated that the Office of
Health faces this issue immediately. AID, through it's Regional
Bureaus, and the World Bank are both making large loans for water projects and Health is being asked for evaluation of their benefits.
He said TA/H wants to develop a framework in order to look as these problems and is pushing for an appropriate model even though the parameters may change. This study is proposed to utilize existing data which is what they would like to do operationally. Dr. Howard announced that the proposer now plans to use Ghanian and Tanzanian data instead of Iranian data. Although the cost-benefit phase needs to be strengthened by country, the intent is to develop a general rather than country-specific model. He agreed the proposal lacked certain fine definition and asked RAC assistance in working toward a model. -41-
Dr. Heady said the sub-committee is sympathetic to the need for this work and noted that Dr. Howard's statements essentially propose a new project which de-emphasizes the cost-benefit aspect. Dr. Howard said the organization and data base are changed, but not the purpose or principle. Cost-benefit for individual countries is not an objective. Dr. D. Peterson noted that, in this context, the only cost is the number of persons infected and expressed favor to evaluating the first part of the model but excluding the cost-benefit phase. Dr.
Howard indicated that the WHO project data for Ghana has information on land use and benefits due to the project, and said an attempt should be made to utilize it as proposed.
Dr. Adams asked if the investigator is now working on the Ghanian data and if tiis could be funded through some media such as small
research. Dr. Howard said the investigator's visit to Geneva for this purpose
was a side-trip and not AID funded. Dr. Weller also asked if AID pro- vision could be arranged for her to do this. Dr. Heady suggested
AID should utilize the available data to formulate the greater
problem solution. Dr. Long indicated it should be possible to fund
the investigator's work in Geneva if she could go there. A for
mative recommendation by RAC would move such activity forward more
definitely. Ms. Belcher indicated this travel and activity would
have to be done through a project vehicle. Dr. Montgomery summarized
the general agreement on doing the research and suggested RAC take
action. -42-
Motion: That AID: (a) provide limited funds for Dr. Rosenfield to
continue her schistosomiasis transmission simulation model
applications to data available through WHO in Geneva, and
(b) request Resources for the Future to develop a more
comprehensive project proposal including complete cost
benefit analyses of schistosomiasis transmission simulation
models.
Moved by Dr. Heady and seconded by Dr. D. Peterson
Vote: Unanimous approval -43-
Efficiency of Health Measures - Contractor to be selected
Marjorie Belcher, DAA/TA, clarified the background of this project as containing a significant research component for which the RAC review and advic,. was sought, although the proposal has been developed as a
General Technical Service project.
Dr. Linder, Chairman of the Subcommittee consisting of Drs. Carter,
Montgomery, and Heady, reported as follows:
This presentation appears to be a preliminary formulation in that
there is no formal indication of the institution or the principal
investigators proposed. Subsequently, there is reference to the fact
that Drs. Peter Heller and Robin Barlow of the University of Michigan
had been instrumental in drafting the concept and plan of work. This
needs to be clarified in providing a more firm basis for project
appraisal. In contrast, Dr. Heady indicated that he likes the
idea of presenting the research concept to RAC for review as a possible
means of developing a better proposal. In reviewing the four phases
of the proposed study, Dr. Linder noted with interest the prediction of of likely outcome to be a shift in responsibility for the delivery the health services from professionals to paraprofessionals. He cited
general principle that one should not insist on statistical precision
beyond the level required for the conclusions and actions sought.
This is a well drafted proposal. The scientific honesty concerning
the reliability of the data collected in months 15-20 of the workplan
is commendable. However, the subcommittee members are skeptical for -44 various reasons. Dr. Carter believes that the work can't be done as outlined, and he recommends disapproval. The proposal is too diffuse
and vaque. The reference to a prior project on alternative approaches
sugqclsts the need to have a progress report. Dr. Montgomery suggests
that the :ctethods proposed can work, although the data are questionable.
He questions the appropriateness cf the Delphic approach except in the
first phase. Dr. Heady likes the presentation, and considers this to be a worthwhile project. While linear programming models are possible
in this area, he has reservations about the design, and needs to see
the specifications. Hence, there is no adequate basis for evaluation.
Dr. Linder summarized that while there is not enough specificity to
give advice, he favors the approach of confronting health planners with
a new emphasis on the judgments of operations analysis. Health
planners must move -aay from policy based on compassionate judgments.
This appears to be the wave cf the future. Further, this is not a
matter of right or wrong decisions, and any incremental improvements
have tremendous practical significance.
Since no RAC action is requested, Dr. Linder suggested additional
work with emphasis on phases 1 and 2 for later RAC review. Clearly,
this is a research oriented project.
Dr. Montgomery commented on the Delphic approach as being
appropriate to socio-economic conditions regressed on health status
rather than to predictions about the future impact. This application needs to be thought through in more detail. There is considerable literature and experience on this approach which supports the application to judgments rather than to predictions. -45-
Dr. Heady stated that the proposal was well summarized. He would like to see a formal proposal for RAC consideration.
Dr. Long urged further discussion on the optimization of practices and the appropriate degree of refinement of data for practical use.
Dr. Swanson pointed out the problem of treating diseases in holistic
- terms in a probabilistic model, and sugges 3 the advisability of limit ing the study to a single disease or some sub-set of diseases. There is not enough information for more evalt .tive statements. Dr. D. Peterson asked how is it possible to develop a simulation model when the values of the outputs are uncertain. Dr. Long asked how the RAC might work with AID staff in further review of the basic idea.
Dr. Joe Davis, TA/H, egreed that the RAC input was useful. An
Experimental Advisory Group which TA/H is attempting to establish has
received acceptances from only about half of chuse approached. The
concept for this project has grown out of experiences in the assessment
of health sectors. The ccllection of practitioners views represents a
possible short-cut to the more elaborate collection and analysis of
basic data. This is a proposal to test the usefulness of this approach.
Colombia and Ghana are possible countries with an interest in participation. Even though the data may lack some precision, their utilization will be more valuable, than the present basis for many health intervention decisions.
A status report of the Colombia project mentioned by Dr. Carter is due
at the next RAC meeting and may indicate that it is to be closed out.
The gaming approach used at Michigan State is considered to be useful
for training objectives, but not as a tool to develop decisions for the
field. The lack of specification in this project is recognized and is -46 a function of lack of staff; a contractor is needed to develop such detail.
Dr. Smuckler commented that while it would be inappropriate for the RAC subcommittee to assist in this effort, RAC members might be able to contribate to a sharpening of the proposal, Dr. Long suggested specific involvement ot two or three RAC members in revision of the proposal. RAC cannot review it before the October meeting and consul tation he said is needed now. Those members who might be available were requested to indicate their interest. No RAC action was taken.
(Note: Dr. Heady has agreed to assist in this matter). -47-
Relationship between Trade Strategies and Employment Growth - National Bureau of Economic Research
Dr. Heady, Chairman of the Subcommittee consisting of Drs.
Anderson and Montgomery and Mr. Wittnebert, reported as follows:
This project first came before the RAG in May 1974. The problem area was considered to be an important one in which too little research had been accomplished. The subcommittee at that time ra' ,ed the question whether the project was to be financed at a sufficiently high level and whether it had enough personnel allocated to it. The first annual report indicates that Ann Krueger, the principal investigator for the project, sepnt an impor tant part of the first year developing methodology. A 61 page paper presented at Princeton University deals especially with factor mar'.et distortions dnd commodity market distortions as determining export mixes in LDCs. It provided hypotheses and an outline of a literary mode! of ratr er simple specification. If this paper does, in fact, represent the stage of methodological developmeit, it seems
short of our previous expectations. The paper makes no clearcut
specification of a quantitative model which will be used in each of
the 10 participating countries. However, it was stated that a con
ference or workshop would be held in December 1975 where participants
from these countries would help decide on the methodology to be used.
Following acceptance of the methodology, eac'. country would use it in
their individual studies. If the conference w_- held and further
methodology was agreed upon, the latter has not tIen presented to the
RAG. -48-
Another paper of 69 pages completed in the first year entitled
"Draft of Suggested Plan of Research for Country Studies" does provide more detail on suggested methodology. It includes a discussion of a rather simple linear programming model. However, no important specifi cation of the programming model is made, and one understands little about (a) nature and number of restraints, (b) nature, number, and specification of variables, and (c) makteup of the coefficient matrix.
Perhaps it is imossible to make a more complete specification of the country programming models until the nature of the a',ailable data is better understood. Data needed are often scant in LDCs.
Three other papers have also been developed: a rather simple programming model written by James Henderson, University of Minnesota; one very short paper on data requirements for statistical exploration of production relations by Jere Behrman of NBER, and another on " data requirements and rectification procedures" by Henderson. While these working papers are quite miscellaneous and do not necessarily represent a systematic set of methodological papers focused on a central p"r.blem. they may suffice, along with further materials developed at the December
Conference, not reported to the RAC, as the initial illustration of a methodology for approaching the study.
That additional funds are required conforms with the RAC's expresed concern in 1974 over the paucity of the budget and senior investigator's time relative to the task to be completed. We did suggest then that -49
prevailed; the budget be appriased by AID and augmented if our proposition Since the namely, that the budget was too small for the task outlined. we recommended project is underway, denial of the added funds which that the previously would seem inappropriate. While it is possible been taken on, added load of four more countries should not have project director, especially with the added burden they place on the a duplication. they do represent an extension of the project and not as requested. We recommend that the budget and time period be extended recommendation. Mr. Wittnebert agreed with Dr. Heady's analysis and and accurate. Dr. Montgomery stated that the statement was thorough
too lean, it is generally While anticipating that the original budget was requireme',ts better as a matter of policy to justify supplemental This is an appropriate rather than to budget with fat which may be wasted.
request plus the additional features. as requested Motion: That the budget and time period be extended
Moved by Heady, seconded by Montgomery.
Vote: Unanimous approval. -50-
Income Distribution: A Study of Social, Political, and Economic Interrelationships Affecting the Implementation of Equity Policies and Programs - Princeton University.
Dr. Erven J. Long, AA/TA, clarified tho background on the sub mission of this project to the RAC. Normally thq Adminis .rator of
AID approves all projects to be presented to the RAC. In the case of
this project, which is ai. unusual situation, final approval has been withheld to obtain RAC advice. Two questions have been posed by the
Administrator; (1) Is the methodology sound? and (2) Is the project
likely to produce results useful to countries other than those in
which the work is conducted?
Dr. Heady, Chairman of the Subcommittee consisting of Drs. Anderson,
and Montgomery and Mr. Wittnebert, reported as follows:
Studies of equity of income distribution and policies relating to
it are considered of great importance to AID for reasons of human
itarian purposes and because such studies are sensitive. Answers to
the questions of policy impact on income distribution are not
definitely available. The prevailing proposition is that generally
the development process has resulted in greater income inequality
in LDCs. This project proposes to examine critically: (1) the
interaction of economic, social and political factors which erode
or cancel intended reforms; and (2) the efficience of different
policies in promoting equity. -51-
The specific projects suggested for Nigeria and Turkey seem quite miscellaneous and sometimes onaly remotely related to core problems.
Whether refined and basic data, other than a "good political feel" can
be gotten from "open-ended interviews" with administrators and policy
makers in LDCs is not certain. The several suggested country studies
do not seem to "make up a highly focused whole" and could result in a
"scattering of somewhat related papers but not representing a system4
atically integrated analysis of the major elements of the income
distribution problem". These questions were raised by AID staff in,
the R&DC reviews. The RAC Subcommittee believes that the research
workers designated at Princeton and in some of the LDCS are capable
people who could be trusted for productivity. Some committee members
feel that the project could best be conducted in a single country;
others thought the countries were well selected. Some of the subcom
mittee thought the project atement was well done; others that it needed
to be restructured. For the type of research proposed, the budget is
perhaps too heavy at the outset and too light at the end.
Dr. Montgomery agreed that the project was diffuse in substance
and approach but considered it a logical and necessary follow-on to
the prior work. The overtones of politics are difficult to escape,
and thses sensitivity issues perhiaps explain bureau feluctance to
sponsor direct activities. He stated his favorable response to this
type of country experience. This is part of an important new wave
of social science research. However, we (social scientists) do not do
well as yet in this field. The conventional approaches are not weli -52
suited to this kind of inquiry. As an exImPLh, votitig surveys; wilt not explain policy choices to be studied in this project. The focus should be on policy history as an interaction of factors and decisions. The statement by Dr. Lewis is a convincing statement of the importance of the issues. He regretted the failure of some regional bureaus not seeing the promising consequences of the research approach.
Mr. Wittnebert stated this to be an interesting proposal. He strongly supported efforts to better understand the factors operating at the "delivery end" of the development specturn. However, he was unable to endorse the proposal in its present form because a) it is
too general in nature and broad in scope to generate confidence in development of beneficial real-world consequences, and b) convincing representations of such expectations are absent. Dissemination of findings is a necessary but not a sufficient antecedent for their effective use. He suggested the alternative course of conducting the study in conjunction with some on-going or planned development program to avoid the present proposal limitations of excessive scope, sub-optimal
target-country selection, and lack of transferability of findings. The plan to include LDC academic and research participation in the proposed
study is commendable. On the other hand, an absence in the proposal of plans for target-country-government involvement, at least to the extent of endorsing its pursuit, is considered to be a serious deficiency. if such involvement cannot be anticipated, then the studyp if made at all, would be more appropriately undertaken by some other agency better prepared than AID to process such "sensitive" matters. The report of the Princeton Conference of LDC economists and social scientists in -53-
Appendix B does more to weaken the proposal than to strengthen it. It is regretable that the R&DC in two sessions, could not attain reasonAble agreement as to the value of the proposal.
Dr. Connell asked about the selection of the additional two countries.
Dr. D. Peterson questioned the degree of participating country government involvement. Dr. Heady indicated that he saw no problem in getting country participation, and that for the money requested there should be more participation. Dr. Smuckler asked if this referred to official participation, local scholarss or interviews with government leaders? Dr. D. Peterson comrnented that in his experience the utiliza tion of case histories to determine significant data was difficult because of the fixed positions reported.
Dr. Thorbecke commented on the importance of the first question concerning the methodology. Too little research of this type has taken place, and he favored more. However, he was unhappy with the methodology proposed. I: reads like a laundry list, and it needs the
statement of an integrating framework. Referencing land reform as an
example, he pointed out that experience shows the indirect effects of
policy actions often are more important than the direct effects. This
question is so important,.and so little work is going on, that it should
be encouraged within an integrating framework which is clearly stated.
With reference to the R&DC subcommittee constituted to reconcile the
issues of their review, there is no account of what happened. Did they meet, report, and what was the reaction? -54-
Dr. Falcon, after agreeing with Dr. Thorbecke, added three questions.
(1) Assuming an important question and a strong group of researchers, can enough insight be obtained frum only 2-4 countries? (2) He expressed reservations on the matter of land-reform analysis in that no method ology is described in the proposal and there is limited strength at
Princeton for this area. (3) How will this project link to application within AID programs? Despite such issues, he wished to register a neL positive reaction to the project.
Dr. John Mellor, PPC/PDA, commented that this is indeed a complex project and easy to criticize from the conservative point of view.
Speaking as the Chief Economist of AID, he said the Agency is currently in a difficult position in that the role of foreign assistance is changing and the earlier conceptual framework is now less constructive.
There is need for outside help. This type of study, in contrast to the traditionally academic approach, involves more variables than observations and the addition of more countries, in turn, adds proportionately more varia bles. This tends to be true for social sciences generallyp making rigor difficult. He believes that we have not gone as far as we should in bringing in the local participants. We have used the colonial approach. There are problems in bringing LDC participants into problem definition without abridging participant enthusiasm, but there is great potential payoff in this process. The subprojects in the Turkey plan have been well
thought out. However, it is difficult to get official government participation or approval# and the individuals do move back and forth between the academic and government roles. There are opportunities -55
in utilizing local researchersand in trying new methodologies not necessarily constrained by Western values. This provides for institu tion building, and the payoffs in better research may be very high.
With respect to the addition of other countries, there are always complications. While the broadened data base and experience is desirable, we can never get ahead of the added variables. Both Thailand and Egypt have been under consideration. If the Agency is constrained to work only with current AID countries, this may seriously restrict the opportunities to learn from previous and now graduated AID countries.
With reference to the diversity of component parts of the project, this
is traceable in part to participant definition of problems with con
sequent spottiness although this may be beneficial on balance. Also it
is hoped that the individual researchers may develop insights into the
implications of their specific parts for improved income distribution.
Finally, a statement is now in preparation for the agency concerning
a broad research program on economic policy involving a participative
decision approach. The proposed study may contribute to this issue.
Jonathan Silverstone, PPC/PDA, reported that the R&DC subcommittee
had been consulted at length by PPC, providing some very helpful conments
which have been incorporated. India and Mexico have been eliminated
from the proposal; demographic emphasis in data collection has been
added; the failure of the subcommittee to report led to confusion and
procedural problems. PPC would welcome RAC assistance. -56-
Dr. Montgomery commented that LDC government participation problems
are not unique to this project. How the results of the research are
handled may determine the studies' effectiveness. One way which has
worked well is not to publish, but to use the findings as guidance for
management. Eventually the findings will get into the public domain
indirectly. The Princeton participants know of this problem and are
very sophisticated with respect to such interaction.
Dr. Smuckler asked about a replacement for Dr. Fred Harbison
(deceased). Jon Silverstone indicated that this is a difficult
problem and that Princeton's management is concerned and planning
for a successor.
Motion: That the project be approved with the condition that the AID
project manager closely monitor the project to insure (a) a systematic
structure and methodology of the research does come about and (b) close
coordination and an integrated framework is maintained among the
Princeton and country research personnel so that the resulting papers
are a systematic group focused on the problem. A report should be
submitted to RAC at the end of one year with definite evidence that
these have been accomplished, and that two additional countries have been successfully selected. A reassessment of the budget should be made with reductions appropriate to the tasks. The Princeton group
should stay in close touch with the group of Universities (Cornell,
Michigan State, Purdue) and the Agriculture Development Council now preparing to study problems relating specifically to income distri bution and equity in agriculture.
Moved by Heady; seconded by Montgomery. -57-
Project Report
Utilization of Secondary Species from Tropical Forests - U. S. Department of Agriculture
on schedule Dr. Arnold, TA/OST, reported that the project was for action and deliberation for phase III was going on with plans the project by November 1976. Dr. Parham, TA/OST, briefly reviewed of the secondary to date. The objective is to find economic uses of suitable newsprint woods from tropical forests. He showed samples and reported that other which had been made from Philippine hardwoods being atmilarly species including those from Nigeria and Ghana were affects. studied. Silica content is high in most of these species and development. specific gravity which is a major factor in product the project He noted the environmental concern of RAC in approving which will assess and reported that a major report is being prepared in tropical the environmental consequences of deforestation operations environmental aspects areas. This is expected to lead to a strategy on on this subject, of deforestation. The research literature is poor the objectives and the problem could not be properly addressed within
of this project as suggested. project Dr. Adams pointed out that this was a rather simple of goals initially and chided the contractor for over-sophistication that in the preparation of a descriptive brochure. He also suggested
the environmental aspect although extremely important in the overall project. picture, had been overemphasized relative to this -58-
There was no further discussion, ad as no action was required by RAc, the proviso in the initial approval requesting this report was fulfilled. Infusion of New Technology into AID Programs
Mr. Daniel Parker, the Administrator, participated with the RAC members in a discussion of "How we view and infuse new technologies into our Program, providinq greater opportunities to deal with development programs and, hopefully, to expand our scope." He commented on changing roles of the Agency, the current concentration on development objectives, the consequent wrenching with changing procedures, and with rewards of occasional fulfillment. There is need to examine policy with respect to the extent of the technology component. Two extreme positions are possible: First, considering the limitation of funds, do we take the lowest possible risk in order to deliver the most assistance? Second, considering limited funds, how do we take advantage of the base of science and technology in undertaking promising projects all of which may have a high element of risk? Between these extremes there must be a narrow range for
Agency programs inclined towards innovation with reasonable payoff
in findings and their multiplier effects.
Considering the available technology, taken in its broadest
sense, one can be overwhelmed by the amount existing. Two questions
follow: First, How large a technology component should be included
in development programs? Second, How should we structure the Agency
to find greater opportunities, initially within the U.S. Government
and also in the private and academic sectors? -60-
We must accelerate the rate of progress. And we must continue to provide those social safeguards built into the applications to avoid prejudicial effects. The area of aquaculture is an example of the type of program which should be capitalized upon. The emphasis on the removal of constraints in the production phase, rather than on the harvest phase, would appear to have far reaching implications for other programs. Another example is that of remote sensing. Through coonerative relationships with NASA it will be po&sible to include AID requirements into the program, and these may have extensive application not yet fully understood. Communication and data transfer are aspects mostly of domestic concern. We should explore the optimization of this new technoloqical resource for social and economic development.
What technological component should be included in AID programs?
How should we structure ourselves to utilize the present and evolving technological opportunities for development?
Extensive discussion included the following issues.
Dr. Dean Peterson asked about the scope of technology as being inclusive of all social software. Mr. Parker stated affirmatively that we must think broadly without constraints as to the substance, although there is a need to focus on the areas of application in development.
Dr. Schweiqert commented on his experience to the effect that most advances are made by small increments, 95% perspiration and 5% inspiration. -61-
Dr. Falcon commented on the distinction between technology generation and technology diffusion. Is not the latter more important, and will this need to be country specific? Mr. Parker stated that he felt both were important aspects needing support. With respect
to country specificity, he described the proposed operational Landsat
coverage by two satellites covering every section of the earth every
nine days. Much of this area has never been seen by humans. In one
sense this is both very general and very specific, and some appropriate
blend is needed. There is much technology in being which has not yet
been examined for its usefulness to development problems.
Dr. Thorbecke pointed out that although there is a large stock
of technology available in the United States, much of it may not be
useful to the LDCS since it is so capital intensive in its application.
In contrast, given the labor abundance and the importance of emplovment in
LDCs raises questions of what technology lends itself best to the development
problems. What sectors are most relevant? He commented that in the field
of agriculture much of the work has been extremely successful through
limited in actual applications; there is need to extend the analyses
of crops and conditions. In the area of construction, the ILO-WEP has
studied the effects of difficult technologies in road construction, and
concludes that the simple technologies cost less, provide more unskilled
employment, and require less complicated specifications. One focus
might be to help the growth of local research capability. Resources
might go farther in this sens. p;oviding more help to the LDCs than to -62 ourselves. Mr. Parker agreed that these were valid noints. He did not intend in any way to minimize the importance and utilization of local labor, particularly where this is the outstanding available resource. lie cited an observation that in Ethiopia over half of the population lives over a half day's walk from a road. Clearly, road building is important. As an example of the application of systems technology to the design of roads, he referenced a recent instance in which Haiti was able to utilize a com~uter terminal with satellite communication to
Atlanta and the Department of Transportation computerized data bank in
Los Angeles to obtain computational and design assistance in minutes which would otherwise have taken weeks or months. How can we erhance optimization of technology for LDCs through rapid communication tech niques?
Dr. Montgomery, reviewing his concerns about this problem since the 1950s, stated that there are two ends of the pipeline, and both are beinc vorked on by AID. One approach is to ask, What do we have that is potentially useful? Many useful applications follow from this search.
Another, and possibly better, approach :Ls to work on problem definition.
How does an organization, such as AID, which is designed to protect itself against error, push the search for innovation which is likely to have some failures? The RAC sees only the end product of an extended project formulation flow. Possibly we are not maximizing the resources present within the Agency. Unoubtedly, there is more experience in the field than we are utilizing; Washington may be too remote in time and -63 perception from these insights. Is it possible to use the missions to bring country points of view more directly into the problem definition? Recognizing that mission people are concerned with more immediate programs and may not have the technological resources, should there not be more initiative in the field to mke use of local institutions? Productive ideas, he observed, can come from interactions with host country scholars. Mr. Parker stated that this was a very useful comment. The Agency is seeking to link Washington and the field in the identification of needs. We must equip the field with the resources to identify problems and opportunities.
Dr. M. Peterson asked how AID perceives the new relationship with the
Land-Grant Colleges under the Title XII. Mr. Parker pcinted out that
the legislation provided no new funds, but did provide new opportunities
through the longer term planning without the vagaries of funding. This
will provide more opportunity to examine the capabilities of the people
in the LDCs. Possibly the local municipal governments will provide
opportunities to reach those concerned with better administration at
the operating level.
Dr. Heady pointed out that projects use university research
personnel abroad, and that the overseas incentive is now limited to
18 months. Tihis situation cuts down the potential supply of personnel
for needed work. Is any thought being given to lifting this restric
tion? Mr. Parker indicated that he recognized the importance of this
problem, and that the situation was under consideration, but in flux.
The Agency is on the verge of getting certain specific questions -64 identified as policy issues with reference to university relations and voluntary agency roles. There are issues of the unique roles in operation and the accountability aspects; progress is being made.
Dr. Smuckler agreed with Dr. Montgomery on the importance of the question of how to move an organization from a self protection orienta tion to emphases on innovation with its consequent risk. However, he differed with thc. importance of field involvement. There should be involvement, but is it possible to stress the management of research rather than its substance? Can there be more inter-donor coordination?
The quest for development and dissemination is also going on within the universi' es, where there is an uneasiness and a search for better ways of expressing the contribution of research to development. The
RAC sessions last time suggested new technologies are relevant. Pro posal was made for PAC discussion of priorities, new ideas, and the state-of-the art. A specific follow-up might be in order now.
Dr. D. Peterson commented on possible means for a better than random approach to technology. Communication is needed between additional recipients and technology resource people. This is most effective in the field of agriculture. By contrast, the area of urbanization is in trouble despite the massive efforts. One problem is the shortage of qualified manpower. An example is the field of range management, is which there is great demand for experienced and highly trained personnel. Mr. Parker asked should we organize to bring about better -65 utilization of the available people as they are? Must we depend on more sophist-cated people?
Dr. Weller commented on the constraint of manpower. It is essential for AID to move on this nroblem. In the field of malaria
AID was relatively successful in pushing for understanding of the basic biological field work in contrast to the older residual insecticide approach. In contrast, in the field of schistosomiasis more technical knowledge is needed on the taxonomy and biology of the vectors. There are no snail sanitary engineers available to handle the environmental modification required by new irrigation projects. This will require special training programs. Mr. Parker agreed that this was a good example, particularly since this is not a problem in the United States.
Dr. Smuckler referenced Dr. M. Peterson's question about how the
RAC could deal with new technologies and identify new departures for new opportunities. Regarding the larger question of how to organize to capture such opportunities, he suggested bringing appropriate research people to visit periodically with RAC.
Mr. Parker stated that in posing these questions he realized that they may not be easilv answerable. He expressed appreciation for this exchange of ideas and invited additional thoughts and comments that RAC members might wish to offer.
After luncheon discussions, Dr. Smuckler suggested that as a follow-up to the discussion with Mr. Parker the RAC establish a five member subcommittee to consider more thoroughly the possible roles, -66 suggestions, and recommendations for report back to the October RAC.
This subcommittee would focus on the questions: What are the ways technoloqy can play a more effective role in the AID program? How can the RAC respond to the new directions in technology which may devplop? Dr. Montgomery suggested that consideration also be given to the emerging new technologies in the LDCs themselves.
Dr. Long expressed his belief that the timing is excellent since
Mr. Parker wants to get a point of view on record in the Congress as a way to get policy stated for future reference. This is especially difficult in times of administrative change. A report for discussion at the October RAC meetinq would be appropriate since this would provide an opportunity for dialogue between the conventions and the election.
The change in Agency concern between the 1960s to the current major emphasis on R&D, he noted, is a major bureaucratic redirection. It is important to develop an intelligent statement in this area which will not become counterproductive in operations. He suggested that
Mr. Wittnebert be a member of the RAC subcommittee. Dr. Montgomery suggested that Mr. John Murphy, DA/AID, be invited to participate in the committee for AID.
A vote to proceed with implementation of this proposed subcommittee of RAC was approved unanimously. All members of the RAC were invited to indicate to the Research Office their willingness to participate.
Dr. M. Peterson suggested that those who did not participate directly should have the opportunity to submit their thoughts. -67-
NOTE FOR THE RECORD
The project "Fortification of Sugar with Iron" proposed by TA/N
to the March 22-23, 1976, RAC meeting was approved subject to
revision and subsequent approval by the RAC subcommittee. Dr.
Schweigert, on May 26, 1976, advised that the revision proposed by
TA/N had been accepted by the majority of the committee and would
constitute their approval for implementation of the project with the
provisions indicated below:
"The acceptance of the revision is provided with the understanding
that TA/N will develop appropriate revisions with the principle
investigator involving the mixology and food consumption aspects of
the study which have been described in the letter of May 6 by Mr.
Ludington. Our recommendation is, therefore, that your proceeding
with the study will Include development of a revised project that
meets these objections of Mr. Ludington concerning distribution of
the iron in the sugar and the food intake phases of the program.
"A report on the status of the project will be provided to the.
RAC within one year." -68-
RESEARCH ADVISORY COMMITTEE MEMBERS
May 24-25, 1976
ATTENDANCE
RAC Members
Dr. H1aplph Smuzik ler TA/PPU, Ms. Lohva Wakefield 1)r. i)avid A. Adams TA/PPU, Ms. Evelyn McLeod Dr. [lizaheth Connell TA/PPU, Mr. Delbert Myren Dr. lohn1H. Ehrenreich TA/PPU, Mr. Daniel Blake Dr. Walter P. Falcon TA/AGR, Dr. Earl Leng Dr. EarII. IHeady TA/AGR, Mr. Guy Baird Dr. Iorr',nst E. Linder TA/AGR, Mr. Nels Konnerup 1)r. Jtr ium D. Ludington TA/AGR, Mr. Leon Hesser Dr. foliti D. Montgomery TA/AGR, Mr. Glen Beck Dr. Dean N. Peterson TA/AGR, Mr. Gilbert Corey Di' M)aurice L. Peterson TA/DA, Mr. Ronald Tinnemeir Dr. 12.2. Schweigert TA/OST, Mr. Walter Parham Dr. Iaymond Swanson PPC/PDA, Mr. John Mellor* Dr. Erik Thorbecke PPC/PDA, Mr. Lawrence Rosen Dr. Thomas Weller PPC/PDA, Mr. James Mudge Or. Robert Whitney PPC/PDA, Mr. J. Silverstone Dr',Samitel Wishik PPC/PDA, Mr. James Hoath Mr. '. R. WIttnebert PHA/POP, Dr. J. Speidel PHA/POP, Ms. Mary Perry Others Prces ent PHA/POP. Mr. R. Cornelius PHA/POP, Mr. J. Brackett 3tcphen E. Huiredee - Washington Represen- AFR/RA, Woodrow Leake tative Service PM/MD, Dr. Milton Esman O/LA, Mr. Oscar Morrison LA/DP, Mr. A. D. Silver A.I.D. Staff LA/DR, Ms. Janice Weber SER/ENGR, Mr. John Rixse
A/AID, Mr. Daniel Parker ES/AID, Ms. Caroline McGraw AA/TA, Mr. Curtis Farrar AA/TA, Ms. Marjorie Belcher AA/TA, Dr. Erven Long AA/TA, Mr. Curtis Barker TA/N, Di,. Martin Forman TA/N, Dr. Irwin Hornstein TA/N, Dr. Samuel Kahn 'PA/N1, Dr. Harold Rice TA/IH, Dr. Lee Howard TA/H, Mr. Joe Davis TA/H, Mr. J. Thomson
TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE BUREAU
AID CENTRAL FUNDED RESEARCH PROGRAM
Summary of Funding by Project and Functional Areas
January 2, 1962 - June 30, 1976
Active Projects Completed Proiects Functional Area Total Program # of # of # of funded projects amount funded projects amount funded projects amount
37 46,716,515 51 29,821,974 Food/Nutrition 88 76,538,489
26 34,734,006 39 34770,981 Population Planning/Hlth 65 69,504,987 (2,285,900) (17) (13,378,875) Health (28) (15,664,775) (II) (32,448,100) (22) (21,392,106) Popula. (37) (53,840,212) (15)
2 1,672,913 11 9,299,028 Education & Human Res. 13 10,971,941
33 5,650,289 74 28,558,083 Selected Dev. Problems 107 34,208,372 (4) (2,481:080) (3) (1,171,227) OST (7) (3,652,307) (5) (2,522,520) (38) (15,491,973) PPC (43) (18,014,493) - (7) (11,363,373) Industrial/Urban (7) (11,363,373) (24) (646,689) (26) (531,510) Small Res Prog. (50) (1,178,199)
98 $ 88,773,723 175 $ 102,450,066 GRAND TOTAL 273 $ 191,223,789 vAc FOOD & NUTRITION , ects
Contract Accumu.ative Lon Contractor Duration Obliga Substantive Area and Project Title
Agriculture
RDA # i: Agriculture Economic Analysis
University 6/21/71- $ 1,603,460 1. Agriculture Sector Analysis and Michigan State 12/31/76 12/31/76 Adaptation of Srimulation Models (csd-2975) Project #140-536
of Agriculture 5/1/71- 465,082 2. Agriculture Diversification and U. S. Department (PASA-RA(AJ)- 9/30/76 6/30/75 Trade in Asia-Project #190-533 Economic Research 13-71 TA-1327 229,948 3. Small Farmers and Technological Cornell 6/30/76 242,822 Change 190-594 Purdue TA-1326 12/31/78 249,288 Mi - St. Univ. TA-1328
Alternatives,Ilnc. 6/30/76 288,223 4. Alternative Organization Development 1/1/79 Strategies 899-609 AID/CM/ta-C 1323
Active RDA #l Total $3,078,823, FOOD AND NUTRITION Active Proiects Contract Accumulative Obligation Substantive Area and Proiect Title Contractor Duration
Agriculture
RDA # 2: Crop Production Technology $ 2,346,466 i. Inheritance and Improvement of Protein Purdue Research Foundation 6/30/66- (3/31/77) Quality and Content in Sorghum Vulgare- (csd-1175 $1,707,390) and 3/31/78 Project #130-452 AID/ta-c-1212 ($619,076)
2. Improvement of the Nutritional Quality University of Nebraska 6/29/66- 2,898,349 of Wheat Through Increased Protein Con- (csd-1208 $1,389,237) 3/31/78 (3/31/77) tent and Improved Amino-Acid Balance AID/ta-1093 ($1,509,000) Project #130-471
3. Control of Weeds in the LDCs-Project Oregon State University 6/30/66- $ 2,931,000 #130-463 AID/CMta-C-73-23 $1,093,687 3.31/79 (3/31/77) (csd-1442 ($1,478,991) (csd $240,000-C-1295)TA-0023 (§1181322)
4. Inheritance and Improvement of Purdue University 6/30/70- $ 1,543,000 Protein Quality/Content in Maize- (csd-2809 $1,011,110) and 3/31/78 (3/31/78) Project #130-524 AID/ta/C-1211 $531,890
5. Improvement of Tropical Production University of Puerto Rice 5/1/73- $ 1,140,102 of Beans and Cowpeas Through Disease AID/CM/ta-C-73-26 $800,259 -1/30/76 (11/30/76) 9 6 and Insect Control-Project #130-562 and (ta-C-12 $339,643)
6. Improved Varieties of Soybean- University of Illinois 4/20/73 $ 1,578,000 Project #130-560 AID/CM/ta/C-73-19 3/1 10/30/76 Pj #10-- 12IV 7. Development of Improved High Yielding University of Nebraska 2/12/74- $ 295,000 Sorghum Cultivars-Project #130-575 AID/ta-C-1068 2/11/77 (2/11/77) FOOD AND LTRITION Active Proiects Contract Accumulative Duration Obligation Substantive Area and Project Title Contractor
Agriculture
RDA # 2: (continued)
A&M University 5/31/74- $ 279,946 8. Development of Improved, High Yielding Texas 9 2 2/28/77 (2/28/77) Sorghum Cultivars Project # 130-578 AID/ta-C-10
of Puerto Rico 5/31/74- $ 214,700 9. Development of Improved High Yielding University 5/31/77 (5/31/77) Sorghum Cultivars Project #130-577 AID/ta-C-1087
of Montana 5/31/74- $ 600,000 10. Improvement of the Nutritive Quality and University 3/25/77 (3/25/77) Productivity of Barley for Semi-Arid AID/ta-C-1094 Regions-Project #130-580
Foundation, Hawaii 1/13/75- $ 280,000 11. Artificial Propagation of Milk Fish Oceanic 9 1/12/78 (1/13/76) Project # 130-526 AID/ta-C-118
Carolina State University 6/26/75- $ 297,285 12. Research on Integrated Crop Protection North 4 3/J1/' 77 (12/31/76) Systems with Emphasis on Root-Knot AID/ta-C-123 Nematode Project #130-614 ACTIVE RDA # 2 TOTAL.. $14,403,848
4 FOOD AND NDTRTT!ON Active Projects Contract Accumulative Oblieation Contractor Duration Substantive Area and Project Title A,7ri-cul turt?
RDA # 4: Water and Soil
1. Soil Fertility Requirements for Efficient Cornell University 6/30/69- $1,996,846 4 Production of Food Crops on the Extensive (csd-2 90 $1127,000) 6/30/77 (3/31/77) 0 4 $869,900 Deep, Well-Drained but relatively Infertile and AIDita-C-11 Acid Soils of the humid Tropics-Project #120-505 $3,879,000 Colorado State University 6/28/68- 2. Water Management Research in Arid and Sub- $2,202,288) 3/31/77 (3/31/77) Humid Lands of the LDCs-Project #120-489 (cjd-2162 ta-C-llO0 $1,675,712
State University 6/28/68- $4,231,131 3. Water Management Research in Arid ana Sub- Utah $2,402,131) 3/31/77 (3/31/77) Humid Lands of the LDCs-Project #120-489 (csd-2167 $2,051,849E / Agricultural Research Ser- 4/16/63- 4. Development and Use of Improved Varieties Department of 6/30/73 of the Major Cereal Crops of Africa vice, U.S. Agriculture (PASA RA-4-00)
Rico 1/1/75- 746,200 and Land Potential of Bench- University of Puerto 5. Crop Production 12/31/77 (12/31/77) mark Soils of Latin American Project #130-601 AID/ta-C-1158 North Carolina State Uni- 6/30/70- $2,152,359 6. Agronomic-Economic Research-on Tropical (csd-2806 $1,228,359) 6/29/78 (12/31/76) Soils - Project #120-525 versity and AID/ta-C-123 6 ($924,000)
activity a/ A.I.D. project monitoring and funding transferred to Africa Bureau in FY 1970, continuing through 6/30/75 and dollar input at $2.6 million.
5 FOOD AND NI'TRITION Active Pro4ects Contra ct Accumu !a !e Substantive Area and Proiect Title Contractor Duration 0blieation
Atriculture
RDA # 4: (continued)
7. Crop Production and Land Capabilities University of Hawaii 5/31/74- $ 901,000 of a Network of Tropical Soil Families AID/ta-C-1108 5/30/77 11/30/76) #120-582
8. Legume Rhizobium Symbiosis Research University of Hawaii 6/1/75 800,000 -* J30o-613 AID/ta-C-1207 5/31/78 5/31/77
9. Symbiotic Nitrogen Fixation USDA!PASA 4/15/76 226,000 Problems & Limiting Factors TAB 610-9-76 9/30/78 9/30/76 130-610
ACTIVE RDA # 4 TOTAL $16,984,385
-6 NLTRT!ON Active Proiects FOOD AND - Contract AccumuIative Oblipation Contractor Duration Substantive Area and Proiect Title
Agriculture
RDA #5: Livestock Production Technology 4/5/67- $3,995,720 Bureau of Sport Fisheries and of Vertebrate Pests-Project 6/30/78 (6/30/76) 1. Control Wildlife, Dept. of the Interior- 6 #190-473 (PASA RA(ID)1- 7) 6/14/63- 2,632,000 Agricultural Research Service, on the Sterility Method of 6/30/76 (6/30/76) 2. Research U.S. Dept. of Agriculture (PASA Fly Control (Africa)-Project Isetse RA-l-00) and (AG-TAB-030-1-O0) #130-030 6/30/68- 2,496,000 Texas A&M University on Hemoprotozoal Disease 6/30/78 (3/31/77) 3. Research (csd-1947) of Food Producing Livestock in LDCs-Project #130-475 11/1/74- 300,000 University-of Florida Deficiencies and Toxicities 5 3 11/1/77 (11/l/76) 4. Mineral AID/ta-C-11 of Grazing Ruminants in Latin #130-600 America-Project
9,476,693 ACTIVE RDA I#5 TOTAL
-7 antiv. Area ANL, ,JThI07!tIONand Project Title ActiveContractor Froiects Dunrat ContractoConrrc Aculative Accumulative Nutrition Duration Obligation 8: Nutritious Low-Cost Food Relation Of Dietary Re 560-o Caloric Intake 1 Massachusetts Uftilia tio Institute Prlo j of 6/30/70. to Protein nt $ 359,878 # Technology (csd-2808) CordnFortifiaton 56 -51 7/30/76 with Amino Acids 7/3 /767/30/76) Coy56 or54i Pan-American Health Piuation riojAid Organi. 9/15/71 Acids in Human PouainPoetzation 557,291 # 560-544 a)9/30/76(9/30/76) (csd-3357) Effect of Protein Calorie Ilterverition on Human Growth 415b0-625 6/30/7 6/30/76 12/77 13,00
ACTIVE RDA4#8 TflTAT $1,530,169
-8 FOOD ANy 1'W.!TON Active Projects Contract Accumula tive Substantive Area and Project Title Contractor Duration Obligation
Nutrition
RDA //9: Reachinx the Pre-School Child
1. Influene of Material Nutrition on Pan American Health OrgA,,xza.u,, 5/31/75- $ 63,784 Infant Mortality and Morbidity AID/ta-C-1224 12/31/77 (8/30/76) Project # 560-611
2. Influence of Maternal Diet on Offrpring- John Hopkins University 6/1/71- $ 181,076 Project #56-530 (csd-2944) 12/31/76 (12/31/76)
3. Extension - Processed Foods University of Rhode Island 8/8/75- 198,737 Project #560-615 University of Santiago, Chile 8/8/77 (8/8/77)
4. Forrification of Sugar in Iron A Field Study prior to Implemen- Pan American Health Organization 6/30/76 $ 436,000 ration PAHO/INCAP 6/30/79 (6/30/78)
ACTIVE RDA #:9-TOTAL $ 879,597 FOOD ANT) NUTRITION Active Projects Contract Accumulative Sub.tant1ve Area and Project Title Contractor Duration Obligation
Nutrition
RDA # 10: Nutrition Planning and Motivation
Community Level Interventions Alexander Cobo, Foundation 6/30/74 $ .363,000 Project # 560-568 for Superior Education, Call, 6/31/77 (6/30/77) Colombia PROAG USAID/GOC kID/ta-C-1121
.ACTIVE RDA # 10 TOTAL $ 363,000
-10 FOOD I )NUTRITION Acti. roiects Contract Accumulattvc ,Substantive Area and Project Title Contractor Duration Obligatt,
Population
1. World Fertility Survey-Project International Statis-tical 6/30/72- 5,941,00 #57-547 Institute (csd-3606) 6/30/77 6/30/76)
2. Program for Applied Research on Fertility University of Northwestern 5/30/72- 3,849,523 Regulation (PARFR) Project #570-546 (csd-3608) 6/30/78 (6/30/76)
3. Simplified Techniques of Fertility :ohn Hopkins University 6/30/72- 3,743,000 Contrul-Project #580-548 (csd-3627) 6/30/76 (6/30/76)
4. International Fertility Research University of North Carolina 6/31/71- 12,101,000 Program (IFRP)-Project #580-537 (csd-2979) 6/30477 (6/30/76)
5. Suggical and Engineering Research on Batelle Memorial Institute 6/30/71- 1,976,000 Means of Fertility Control-Project (csd-3152) 9/30/78 (6/3C/76) #570-538
6. A study of Side Effects and Mechanism Washington University at 6/30/71- -817,000 of Action of Prostaglandins-Project St. Louis (csd-3160) 6/29/77 (6/30/76) #570-541
7. Sterilization by Endometriar-Ablation University of Colorado 6/30/73 76,433 Project #570-603 Medical College, Denver 12/31/76 (6/30/76)
8. Research on the Safety of Oral Contra- Southwest Foundation for 6/30/73- 1,226,000 ceptives in Developing Countries- Research and Education 6/29/77 (6/30/76' Project # 570-607
- 11 - POPUJJ )N AND HEALTH " Acti ro lects Contract Accuzmjl*!vt SJb .tantive Area and Project Title Contractor Duration ObliRattor Population
9. Research on Prostaglandins in Relation University of Singapore 6/30/73- $ 475,000 to Human Reproduction-Project #570-602 (AID/CM/pha-C-73-36) 12/31/76 (6130/76)
10. Economic and Demographic Family Rand Corporation 6/15/74- 471,000 Behavior in Malaysia-Project #570-615 AID/pha-C-1057 2/28/77 (6/30/76)
11. Population and Family Planning American University in Cairo 7/1/71- 813,15C Research in the Middle East- (AID/ uesa-547) 12/30/76 (6/30/76) Project # 580-109
12. Matlab Contraceptive Saturation Study Cholera Research Lab 6/30/75- 202,000 Project 570-617 Dacca, Bangladesh 6/30/78 (6/30/76)
13. Development of Improved qnd New IUDs International Fertility 6/30/75- 410,000 Project 570-618 Research Programs, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 6/30/78 (6/30/76)
14. Low Cost Contraceptive Distribution East-West Center 6/30/76 122,000 iii Rural Areas Univ of Hawaii 6/30/78 570- 6 15. Testing Delivery Systems Operation American Univ. Cairo dr 6/30/76 225,000 570-632 Proj. Agreement 6/30/80 Gov't of Philippines U
Sub-Total Active Project $ 32,448,106
_ 19 _ POPIJLAT 'NAN~DIIE ,H Acti roiects Contract Accumila8t !v Substantive Area and Project Title Contractor Duration Ob!iato
Health
RDA #12: Health Planning
1. Cost Effectiveness Health Systems - FONADE, Bogota, Colombia 6/30/74- $ 250,,1W Project # 590-587 AID/ta-C-l123 9/30/76 (9/30/7
ACTIVE RDA #12 !TAL $ 250,0OP2
RDA /13: Environmental Health
1. Effects of Anti-Malaria Vaccination N.Y.U. Medical Center 6/30/75- 161,340 Project #511-453 TA-C-1199 5/31/78 $ (2/28/77*
2. Cultivation of Human Malaria Parasite Rockefeller University 6/1/75 150,14t Project #511-453 TA-C-1200 5/31/78 (5/31/78)
3. In-Vitra Cultivation and Production of University of Hawaii 6/30/75- 4I15,000 Malaria Parasites-Project #511-453 TA-C-1227 6/29/77 (3/31/77)
4. Invitro. Propagation of N.Y.U. Medical Center 6/30/75- 94,626 Murine Plasmobia Forms TA-C-1226 6/29/77 (6/77) 511-453
5. Lower Cost Methods of Water and University of Oklahoma 3/1/73- $ 269,000 Waste Treatment in LDCs Project Research Institute 12/31/76 (12/31/76) 1520-563 AID/CM/ta-C-73-13
6. Health Benefits Improved Water Bureau of Census 7/1/75- 195,600 Supply-Project #560-592 CA/TAB- 592-2-76 12/31/76 (12/31/76)
7. In-Vitro Cultivation-Malaria Parasites Parke-Davis Company 1/1/76- 197,000 Project #511-543 Detroit, Michigan 12/31/77 (12/31/77) AID-ta-C-I'258
03 POOLATT% AND HEALTH -Actiect Contract Accu.._ at ive Substantive Area and Preliect Title Contractor Duration Obligatlc Health: (continued)
8. Anti-Schistosomal Drug (Testing Part A) John Hopkins Univ. 5/76 $ 254,0 N 510-642 TA-1312 4/30/78
9. Nutritional Impact of Water Supply Bureau of Census 7/1/75 195,600 560-592 PASA TA-2-76 and 12/31/76 ((-/30/76) Co-PASA-AID 12-810 (Local Costs)
10. Evaluation oi Blood Stage Antigens in University of New 5/1/76 403,585 the Immunoprophylixis of Malaria Mexico 3/31/79 (4/31/77 511-453 AID-C-1259
Active RDA # 13 TOTAL $ 2,035,900
- 14 - EDUCA- m AND HUMAN'RESOURCES Acti- Proiects Contract ACCWL.atiVV / Duration ObliRatlon Substantive Area and Project Title Contractor
Education and Human Resources
.RDA #lt Education Technology ,226,913 1. Application of Radio to Teaching Sanford Uhiversity ./20/73- $ 16/3,0/77) Elementary Math in a Developing AID/CM/ta-C-73-40 Country-Project #690-569 $ 1,226,913 SUB-TOTAL RDA #14 CTIVE PROJECT
ftDA #15 Human Resources Development . Methods and Instruments for Evaluation 1 Tuskegee, Alabama 446,000 of Community Education Projects 690-597 Center, 446,000 SUB-TOTAL RDA #15 Active $
Completed Projects
6/L5/71- $ 239,563 of Low Cost Instructional Stanford University 1. Studies 4 12/34/72 Technolbgy .csd-328 ) for 6/30/72- .$I,441,517h/ on New Techniques for American Institutes 2. Research and 2/28/70 Training Teachers of EngLish Research (csd-1555 Repas-13)
37.797 of A.I.D. Participant American Institute for b/25/b2- 3. Evaluation 6/30/63 Training Facilities in the U.S. Research (Repas-ll) (Pilot Study) Social Science 6/16/62- 326,0001 4. Overseas Evaluation of the Partici- Bureau of (ICA-1891) 11/15/65 pant Training Program Research, Inc. 6/29/62- 610,000 5. Development of an Educational Michigan State University Research Center for Central America (Repas-7) 6/27/67) for evaluation and field testing of ncludes $391,865 for contract with AIR (csd-1555 effective Service, Inc.;rcje tsuned terials developed under an earlile contract (RW -13) with English Language - 15 by Africa Bureau Act )Proiects SOEVELO1 0PM PROBLEMS Contract Accumulat* Substantive Area and Project Title Contractor Duration Oblilation
Science and Technology
RDA #20: Natural Resources Assessment and Management
1. Secondary Woods Utilizations (Paper, pulp and PASA/USDA/USFS 1/7/75- $ 422,000 panels from mixed Tropical hardwoods) Madison, Wisconsin 9/30/78 (6/30/76) Project /995-607 TA(AG)-03-75
ACTIVE RDA #20 TOTAL $ 422,000
RDA #21: Reducing Public Investment Costs
1. Development of Binders for Low Cost Monsanto Research Corp., 5/1/73- $ 757,080 Roofing-Project #995-558 AID/CM/ta/C-73-12 12/31/76 (12/31/76)
2. Sulphur Surface Bond Housing Southwest Research Institute 1/9/74- 245,000 Project #995-574 AID/ta-C-1057 10/31/76 (10/31/76)
3. Transportation Planning Massachusetts Institute 6/30/74- 442,000 Project #390-581 AID/ta-C-1102 6/30/77 (6/30/77)
ACTIVE RDA #21 TOTAL $2,059,080
- 16 Ay ±,.,,.. Contract- ACE. J1IJte SELECTED DEVEWPMENT PROBLEMS 9 -oDuration Obt jattv* Cont.racor ______i Substantlve Area and Project Title (PPC)" RDA #22: Social/Ecoiomic Research and Development $ 955,000 University (csd-3302) 6/15/72- of Gains, Wealth, Income from Rice (5/31/77) 1. Distribution PHASE I - 788 PHASE II - 197 AID 3/31/78 Development- Project #995-534 383,000 National Bureau of Economic 6/30/74- Between Trade Strategies 3 23 (6/30/77) 2. Relationship Research AID-otr-C-1 6/30/77 and Employment Growth- Project #995-588 394,520 University 6/30/74- Technology Choice and Employ- Yale (6/30/77) 3. Industrial AID-otr-C-1 326 6/30/77 ment in Developing Countries Project #995-589 ," 490,000 RAND Corporation 1/1/76 Economics of Family Decision making 4 32 (4/1/77) 4. AID-otr-e-1 12/31/78 and Human Capital in LDCs Implications Growth and Income Distribution for $ 2,222,520 ACTIVE RDA #22 TOTAL
17 SELECTL.ijDEVELOPMENT PROBLE!S Active Projects Substantive Area and Project Title Contrat Accuulatlve CotrctrDura.t ion ~ Obliga~fOn RDA # 23: Institutional and Social Development (Title 3X) 1. Income Distribution Growth and Public Princeton University 6/30/76 300,000 Pol' cy, Phase TI $ Princeton Univ. 995-643 OTR - 1492 12/31/78 (12/31/78)
Sub-TotaI Active $ 300,000
- 18 SELECTED I)EVELOPMEN7 'ROBLEMS Actile Projects . - Contract Acc lative Substantive Area and Project Title Contractor Duration Obligation
Small Projects
RDA #24: Other Worldwide T.A. dnd Research
I. Development of AGR Cultivars of Oats University of Wisconsin 12/30/74- $ 24,993 with resistance to major diseases and AID/ta-C-1171 11130/76 with High-Nutritional Quality for use in LDCs Project (#130-603), RDA # 2 - AGR 998-001-3157562
2. Inadequacy of Hi Lysine Maize AGR. RDA #2 Cornell University 2/75- 25,000 Project #130-602 998-001-3157561 (csd-1175) 2/77
3. Solar Kilns. OST RDA #20 U. S. Dept. of Agriculture 1/1/75 25,000 998-001-3157904 and 3167707 Forest Service TA/AG-02-75 9/30/76 (9/30/76)
4. Effects of Environmental Enrichment Columbia University 7/72 $ 33,075 of Subsequent Development of Mal- (csd-3679) and TA-147-448 12/76 (12/76) Nourished Chilcdren 0,560-550) 998-001
Washington State University 25,000 5. Identify Varieties of Crops and Plants o Tolerant to Aluminum Toxicity for the TA-1209 I -it Arid Soils of the Tropics 998-001-3157575(
6. To Provide a New Methodology of Tissue Colorado State University 6/30/75 25,000 Culture in Producing Crop-Varieties for TA-1223 9/30/76 ('lG) Survival Under Adverse Enviro.mental Gondiltions 998-001-3157583
7. Health and Nutr:.tion Household Survey Bureau of Census 24,000 Research Project for Water System TA/CA-05-75 /) Impact 998-001-3157635
8. To test characteristics of Non-Literate Indiana University 5/1/75 25,895 Adul6 and Educa-ian Programs designed to TA-1202 12/31/76 (12/31/76) reach them 998-001-3157813 SECLECTED DEVELOPMENT PROBLEM4S Actiq Proiects Contract. Act ilative SuLstar:tive b.rea and Project Title Contractor Duration Obligation
Small Projects': (continued)
9. To develop and evaluate in the field, Uorld Education, Inc. 5/3/ 73- $ 24,67O innovative ways of education rural TA-1202 r women 998-001-3157812 1U i / V 4C
10. Substitute Material5998-001-3167700 S.W. Research Institute 12/15/75 20,000 ta-C-1245 6/15/76
11. Photosynthetic Efficiency Sorghum Texas Tech. University 11/13/75 30,558 Screening Related ,to Yield Efficiency ta-C-1256 10/31/76 998-001-3167701
12. Production Perforance Irrigation University of Wisconsin 10/75 22,768 998-001-3167703 ta-C-1261 9/77
13. Nitrogen Fixation by Gasses After University of Florida 11/1/75 24,957 Innoculation with Spirillum in Field ta-C-1262 12/1/76 'rials 998-001-3167704
14. I)eve1j[rment of a Strategy for Improving University of Massachusetts 11/75 25,OD0 Radio Programs 998-001-3167705 ta-C-1249 11/76 11/76
15. Ti-chnology Growth and Distribution East-West Center 24,920 998-001-3167706
16. Project -anagement for Rural Equality Marcus Ingle and G. Honadle 10/30/75 25,000 998-001-3167709 Syracuse University 10/30/76 (10/30/76)
17. Devc1opmtent of a Diagnostic Test for M. I. T. 3/1/76 25,000 Early Stages of Vitamin A Depletion ta-C-1285 2/28/77 (2/28/77) q98-001-3167710
18. I)evloptrent of Methods for Assessing University of South Carolina 12/1/75 _4,635 and Adapting Non Formal Education based ta-C-1283 12/17/76 "12/17/76) on Individual Needs 998-001-3167712
- 20 - PROJECT STATEMENT
A. Project Summary
1. Statistical Grain Sorghum for Project Title Improvement of Developing Countries (DCs)
New or Extension Extension
Contractor Texas A&M Agricultural Experiment Station
Principal Investigator R. A. Frederiksen 29, 1980 Duration March 1, 1977 - February
Funding by Fiscal Years FY 77 - $290,000 FY 78 - 310,000 FY 79 - 350,000 Total $950,000
Prior Funding Life-of-project total - $280,000 (FY 76 - $130,000)
Project Manager Earl R. Leng, TA/AGR/CP
2. Narrative Summary research This is a proposal to conduct cooperative grain sorghum aimed at development and dissemination of improved high yielding attacks. sorghum cultivars with resistance to disease and insect Texas A&M It is a follow-on activity to a current project with which is scheduled to terminate February 28, 1977. of the The project will build on experience and findings 2 scope current project (contract AID-ta-c-109 ), with an expanded develop of work and level of effort aimed at accelerating the by ment of grain sorghum breeding stocks which can be used developing country cereal improvement programs. (1) breed- The project will concentrate its work in three areas: improved ing, screening, evaluation, selection, and release of such as lines; (2) planting on a worldwide basis of nurseries grain weathering disease and insect nurseries, lodging nurseries, tests; nurseries, mite resistant nurseries, and midge resistant and (3) linkages and utilization activities. 2
The project to date has successfully joined provement ongoing sorghum im work, aimed at domestic problems, with efforts superior to convert types to forms adapted to the growing conditions developing countries. of To date, 120 converted strains have been developed in the Texas program and released for domestic and use. Much of DC the work involved in this conversion was before begun the project under AID-ta-c-1092 was undertaken; AID support however, enabled speedily completion of their development has funded ongoing and work wiic . will lead to further releases. Also, breeding stocks resistant to downy mildew, midge, and greenbug have been developed and released, and further improvements for these traits are in progress. It is now contemplated that the program at Texas A&M, directed needs of developing at countries, will be expanded to an integrated sorghum improvement program aimed at the development of high yield ing disease and insect resistant types. Other objectives will be to sp ed up release times, to enlarge cooperative efforts with DC national, regional, and international programs, to work more directly with DC sorghum specialists, and to increase training activities. All these efforts will be directed at faster utilization of improved sorghums in development programs in DCs where sorghum is a major cereal crop. Texas A&M is considered to have the strongest public institutional sorghum improvement program in the world. About 20 staff members devote a major portion of their research and teaching time sorghum improvement. to This includes staff meribers with joint appointments to other institutions in the state, such as Texas Tech University at Lubbock. Broadbased graduate and professional train ing is available because of the joint academic and research activities of the staff.
Many sorghum cultivars developed in Texas are the basis for the rapidly expanding sorghum acreage in Argentina, Venezuela. Brazil, and The first hybrids in India used parent lines Texas from the Agricultural Experiment Station. Similarly productive the lines most in Israel, Korea, Lebanon, Vietnam, Yemen, areas and other are directly from the Texas sorghum program. Texas Agricultural In 1974, the Experiment Station undertook the AID project "Development of High Yielding Sorghum Cultivars with Disease and Insect Resistance". This program fostered a further expansion of sorghum research in Texas which has had application throughout the world. 3
The environments in Texas for growing sorghum are varied and parallel those of the majority of the arid, semiarid, and semi tropical sorghum growing regions of the world. Many of the problems faced at Texas A&M are identical with problems faced by researchers in DCs.
B. Research Purpose and Expected Products
1. Purpose
To develop and make available to the developing countries and to regional and international centers high yielding varieties of sorghum with satisfactory nutritional value and multiple resistance to prevalent diseases and insects.
2. Objectives
a. To identify and catalog sources of disease and insect resistance, improved grain quality, and other desirable agronomic traits in partially converted and converted exotic sorghums and in other sorghums in the World Sorghum Collection.
b. To develop high yielding, agronomically desirable sorghums with with high levels of disease, insect and lodging resistance, as well as resistance to environmental stresses and de sirable grain qualicy characteristics.
c. To develop agronomically elite populations of sorghum with high levels of disease resistance, insect resistance, lodging resistance, and improved grain quality characteristics.
d. To develop and establish efficient resistance screening techniques for detection and evaluation of host plant resistance.
e. To collect and evaluate populations of plant pathogens for their range or changes in virulence and to develop disease diagnostic systems.
f. To develop systems for managing arthropod pests of sorghum.
C. Significance and Rationale for the Research
1. The Development Problem
This research proposal fits well into A.I.D. goals and policies. Its aim is to increase sorghum production in the developing 4 countries through a program to produce varieties resistant to insect and disease problems. Research work will be conducted in Texas, at international centers, and in cooperation with national programs. Many of the diseases and insects which attack sorghum in Texas are the same as those found in the developing countries and research to date has shown that resistant varieties in Texas are generally found to be resistant when grown in iDCs.
Sorghum is one of the principal food and feed commodities of the world. Sorghum is considered by many authorities as the third most important food grain, exceeded in utilization for food only by wheat and rice. Furthermore, sorghum is well adapted to cultivation under wide extremes in environmental conditions including arid, semiarid, and subtropical areas of the world where other food commodities are often less well adapted.
In southwestern USA, where sorghums are a principal agricultural commodity, serious disease and insect problems have occurred repeatedly. During the past few years, there have been grave losses caused by head smut (Sphacelotheca reiliana ), downy mildew (Sclerospora sorghi); maize dwarf mosaic (MDMV); anthracnose (Collectotrichum graminicola; charcoal rot (Macrophomina phaseolina); Fusarium stalk rot (Fusarium moniliforme); and a number of common foliage diseases.
Insects causing significant yield losses in grain sorghum annually are the sorghum midge (Contarinia sorghicola ), greenbug (Schizaphis graminum), and Banks grass mite (Olingonychus pratensis).
The development problem to be attacked by this project will be to broaden the program for disease and insect evaluation and testing so that converted lines are evaluated and selected for tolerance to physiological stresses, production efficiency and nutrition as well as diseases, pathogen strains, insects, mites, and environments of the developing world. The final goal is to develop dwarf or semidwarf sorghum lines, hybrids and bulk populations which are agronomically desirable, possess insect resistance and multiple disease resistance, are photoperiod insensitive, environmentally tolerant, and can be utilized immediately in breeding programs in the DCs as sources of disease and insect resistance. 5
2. State of the Art which Supports this Research Proposal
The current contract is part of an overall AID effort to make improved sorghum varieties available to farmers in the DCs. The Texas A&M research component has been primarily concerned with the collection, breeding, and identification of sorghum cultivars with demonstrated resistance to the most common disease and insect attacks. This work complements other AID supported research to produce improved sorghum lines for DC use. Texas A&M has long been concerned with pest resistance in sorghum for temperate zones and has been able to meet needs of tropical and sub tropical areas through AID support.
Field trials .re conducted in Puerto Rico, Brazil, Mexico, and India. lProfes ;ional linkages have been established with ICRISAT, ALAI), OAU/STRC (formorly JP-20), and country operations in Senegal and India. Intern.Lional breeding selections have been incor porated in the trials aL Texas, and promising lines are included in the selections which are distributed for worldwide testing. Data recording sheets have been supplied by the contractor to ensure uniformity of result tabulation.
A continuous system is in operation for the preliminary screening, multiplication, advanced screening and distribution for field testing of promising cultivars as they are identified. Collabo ration with sorghum specialists in other AID supported research at Purdue, Nebraska, and Puerto Rico has been frequent and close.
ConversiIo to temperate-adapted sorghums to tropical adaptation and vice versa has been an objective of the Texas sorghum improve ment program for several. years, and has been part of the AID funded work since 1974. Tropical adaptation enables sorghum types to be productive in short day, high temperature environments. One hundred and twenty converted lines developed in the cooperative Texas-ARS program have already been released, and more are under development. This program is vital to sorghum breeding work at the international centers and in DCs, since it makes available new disease and insect resistant germplasm sources, with height and maturity characteristics readily usable in both temperate and tropical areas.
The one hundred twenty converted lines released contain sources of midge, mite, downy mildew, head smut, anthracnose, and lodging resistance which are now being used in development of high yielding insect and disease resistant cultivars. 6 Sorghum releases approved during the past year by the Texas Agriuultural Experiment Station include the following:
a) TAM Bk-43 Greenbug resistant B-line bulk
b) TAM BK-44 Greenbug resistant B-line bulk
c) TAM Bk-45 Downy mildew resistant yellow bulks
d) TAM Bk-46 Downy mildew resistant yellow bulks
e) TAM Bk-47 Downy mildew resistant yellow bulks
f) TAM Bk-48 Downy mildew resistant yellow bulks
g) TAM 2566 Midge resistant line
h) TAM 2567 Greenbug resistant yellow endosperm pollinator
i) TAM 2568 Greenbug resistant yellow endosperm pollinator
1) 120 converted lines from the sorghum conversion program.
The releases were products of the overall Texas Agricultural Experiment Station sorghum improvement program. They were developed and released by Texas Agricultural Experiment Station breeders, largely with financial support from sources other than AID, since the AID project did not begin until 1974. They are listed here because the final work was supported in part by AID, and because they typify the success and release policy of the Texas sorghuii rrogram. D. Plans to Develop Linkages and to Facilitate Utilization of Research Results Appropriate linkage relationships and coordination with national, regional, and international institutions are being developed. Texas A&M plans to enlarge these linkages each year of the pro posed three year contract, as research results become available and breeding material is ready for release. 7
1. Linkages
This contract is part of an overall A.I.D. effort to make improved sorghum varieties available to farmers in the DCs. The Texas A&M research component is espe-ially concerned with the collection, breeding, and identification of sorghum cultivars with demonstrated resistance to the most common disease and insect attacks. This work necessarily dovetails with other A.I.D. supported research for developing and distributing more reliable sorghum lines for DC use. Texas A&M has long been concerned with pest resistance in sorghum for temperate zones and is able to accommodate the interests of tropical and subtropical areas through A.I.D's support.
Field trials are being conducted in Puerto Rico, Brazil, Mexico, and India. Professional linkages have been established with ICRISAT, ALAD, OAU/STRC (formerly JP-26), and country operations in Senegal and India. International breeding selections have been incorpo rated in the trials at Texas, and promising lines are included in the planting material selections which are distributed for worldwide testing.
A continuous dystem is in operation for the preliminary screening, multiplication, advanced screening, and distribution for field test ing of promising cultivars as they are identified. Collaboration with sorghum specialists in other A.I.D supported research at Purdue, Nebraska, and Puerto Rico is frequent and close.
2. Expected End Result
The broad spectrum of investigations should permit the cataloguing of thousands of cultivars into categories of salient attributes. On-going breeding programs will combine desirable traits. The end result will be a reserve of plant materials with proven characteristics which will be available for individual country or regional multi plication or cross breeding into indigenous lines. In essence, the combined efforts of the A.I.D. thrust would eliminate the need for duplicacion of these exacting and time consuming efforts by each DC seeking an improvement in sorghum production. Nonetheless, each beneficiary country will need to conduct the final phase of field trials in its own environments. Such testing is already under way in several countries which are cooperating in the evaluations. 8 Expected results should lead to increased food productivity in DCs., more reliable harvests, and less dependence upon chemical pesticides.
Utilization Plans
The present channels for dissemination of the findings of this pro ject seem rational and adequate. They utilize the established information centers, particularly ICRISAT, ALAD, OAU/STRC in Nigeria, a regional center in Senegal, and the Indian Agricultural Research Institute. Additional national programs will be added for dis semination of the breeding material.
The rapidity with which findings are utilized in any individual country program depends upon the interest and professional cap ability in that country. To upgrade this national sorghum breed ing capability Texas A&M will involve DC graduate students and pro fessionals in the on-campus contractor activities. This will be accomplished by involving foreign advanced degree candidates in the operations and by holding special short courses or workshops and through in-country training. E. Management Considerations
No unusual management problems are expected to arise in connection with this project renewal. It is similar in concept and design to other centrally funded crop improvement research projects.
Project will be evaluated through a review and evaluation team visit to the campus, through survey of field activities, and by constant review of the project monitor in TA/AGR.
It is anticipated that the contract will be a sole source procurement based on the contractor's excellent performance under the original three year contract and the Texas A&M competence and experience in developing disease and insect resistant sorghums.
Contractor will clear manuscripts with TA/AGR before the publication of any articles resulting from this research.
F. Project Background Description
In 1963, the Texas Agricultural Experiment Station and the United States Department of Agriculture initiated a program in which exotic sorghums from the World Sorghum Collection are converted from tall, late maturing, photoperiod-sensitive types to shorter, earlier maturing, less photoperiod sensitive lines. During the following conversion, they have been able 9
to evaluate resistance in many partially converted and converted exotic sorghums to diseases prevalent in the United States. This screening has shown that the conversion materials are outstanding as sources of rLsistance to essentially all economically important diseases and insects of sorghum. Of special significance was the finding of a large number of agronomically desirable lines with high levels of resistance to downy mildew and anthracnose, two diseases for which agronomically desirable resistant sources were not available prior to screening conversion materials. Also sources of resistance have been found to head smut, maize dwarf mosaic, rust, zonate leaf spot, gray leaf spot, bacterial stripe, leaf blight, and fusarium head blight. Outstanding sources of re sistance to the various types of lodging as well as resistance to charcoal rot have been identified. Similar progress has been made in detecting sources of resistance to insects and mites and to sorghum midge, spider mites, and corn leaf aphids.
High lysine grain was found in 1973 in a line with the conversion program; this grain has approximately twice the amount of lysine of normal grain. However, the kernels are shrunken with a floury endosperm and have poor weathering properties. Superior weathering resistant lines have been crossed to high iysine lines to improve their weathering resistance.
Forty partially converted bulks and 183 fully converted lines have been released to private and public breeders. However, there are many sorghums yet to be converted and host plant resistance evaluation for many of these converted lines is far from complete.
Many of the desirable characteristics found in conversion materials mentioned above have been or are in the process of being transferred to other agronomically elite breeding lines, and have been successfully incorporated into the Texas Agricultural EXperiment Station breeding and improvement program. The overall performance of such material from this program is very encouraging.
The sorghum conversion program will continue to provide the majority of new germplasm for source materials for disease resistance, insect resistance, lodging resistance, improved grain quality characteristics, desirable physiological responses such as sources of stress tolerance, and improved yield potential in both temperate and tropical areas.
In entomology the project is attempting to develop pest management strategies for pests of grain sorghum and to integrate all available means of manipulation of insect numbers into a system which creates minimum ecological upset to the agroecosystem. Specific areas of re search include: economic injury levels, selective insecticides, natural insect control, and insect resistant sorghums. 10
In breeding the project has been evaluating conversion materials for disease resistance, lodging resistance, and breeding potential. Breeding of sorghums - using primarily new germplasm sources, with high yield, disease resistance, lodging resistance, grain weathering re sistance, improved quality and improved drought stress tolerance - has been the emphasis of the project activities to (late.
Texas A&M employs on this project four coprincipal investigators, one plant pathologist, two plant breeders, and one entomologist. In addition there are 13 coworkers in the fields of pathology, entomology, physiology, plant breeding, agronomy, chemistry, genetics, virology, and agricultural engineering.
G. Project Design and Method
1. Objective 1 - To identify and catalog sources of disease and insect resistance.
Primary disease and insect evaluation will continue essentially as under the current program. Selected sorghum introductions, as they become available, and appropriate converted and partially con verted exotic lines will be screened for downy mildew, head smut, foliage diseases, sorghum webworm, corn earworm, corn leaf aphid, yellow sugar cane aphid, sorghum midge, and spider mites in nurseries at the appropriate locations. Breeding lines will be screened and evaluated for resistance to downy mildew, head smut, maize dwarf mosaic, lodging, charcoal rot, greenbug, midge, and spider mite. They will also be evaluated for anthracnose, seed mold, head blight, gray leaf spot, zonate leaf spot, leaf blight, rust, and bacterial stripe when sufficient levels of infection are present. Lines and selections with high levels of disease and insect resistance will be advanced to the "All Disease and Insect Nursery" (ADIN) in which they will be grown for disease and insect resistance evaluation under a greater variety of conditions. Those lines with the highest levels of disease and insect resistance, along with appropriate controls, will be made available for the International Disease and Insect Nursery (IDIN). The IDIN program permits advanced screening of superior sources of resistance to disease and insects in hostile environments throughout the sorghum growing world. During the past 3 years nurseries have been evaluated in 30 locations. This program will be continued in cooperation with ICRISAT, IRAT, and the All India Sorghum Program. The IDIN will be distributed to all persons requesting nursery seed and to others interested in obtaining promisirg sorghum germplasm. 2. Objective 2 - To develop high yielding, agronomically desirable sorghum varieties and lines. Source materials identified with high levels of disease, insect, and lodging resistance, as well as those with desirable grain quality cnaracteristics and tolerance to environmental stresses, will be utilized in breeding programs to incorporate said characteristics into high yielding, agronomically elite lines, and hybrids. Source materials will be crossed with each other and to elite U. S. lines to combine desirable characteristics. Intensive screening of early generation breeding materials will be used for the various diseases, insects, and other characteristics to select for even higher or improved levels of each trait. Standard breeding techniques such as crossing, backcrossing, and pedigree line selection will be primarily used.
Superior materials from the breeding program will be selected for entry in various uniform nurseries such as the ADIN and IDIN. A few superior yielding, agronomically desirable sorghums which possess some outstanding characteristics, will be advanced to a uniform yield trial. This trial will likely contain both lines and hybrids as well as open entries for locally used sorghums. Such a trial will be grown at a few key locations throughout the world. These trials will provide useful data on general adaptation and yield under a wide range of environments, as well as on stability of disease and insect resistance. Close liaison with ICRISAT and other international centers in such international trials will be developed.
3. Objective 3 - To develop elite breeding populations of sorghum with high levels of resistance to disease and insects. Disease and insect resistant populations have been established using materials developed through the overall sorghum improvement program. Most of these populations have superior agronomically adapted types included and have been mated three or more times. Those items selected which have the appropriate disease and/or insect resistance will be evaluated for combining ability and if they show merit will be included in new restorer and nonrestorer populations of high source materials. All populations will be open ended allowing the continued addition of superior material when it is isolated. Random mating will be done in the winter in Puerto Rico and during the summer at Lubbock. Populations will be evaluated following natural and artificial inoculation with pathogens. In some populations only resistant plants will be allowed to random mate. In other populations, Sl lines will be evaluated for disease and insect re sistance prior to recombination. A population improvement scheme based on S1 and half-sib testing to reduce hazards of specific gene resistance has been initiated and will be advanced. These random mating populations will serve as source populations for sorghum improvement including evaluation for yield, physio logical stress resistance, seed quality, and nutrient utilization efficiency studies. These improved populations will be dis tributed worldwide.
4. Objective 4 - To develop efficient resistance screening techniques.
Virtually all techniques used in evaluation of host resistance can be made more efficient. The recent improvement in downy mildew inoculation (Craig, 1IM5) permits off season testing for reaction to downy mildew in the greenhouse, thereby reducing the time rejuired to transfer downy mildew resistance and the numbers ot entries needed in field nurseries. Similarly, more efficient techniques are needed for head smut, anthracnose, seed mold, charcoal rot, midge, and mite evaluation. Technique improvement is essentially a naturally evolving component ha host plant resistance work. In critical areas, such as resistance to downy mildew, head smut, stalk rots, insects, and mites, studies on the nature of resistance will be required. The type of resistance will determine, in part, the vulnerability of the host and will permit incorporation of more than a single source or different combinations of resistance in improved lines. In addition, comple mentary studies are needed at times to evaluate selected cultural, bio logical and chemical control [or certain diseases and insects. Such studies as inoculum removal, (including destruction of alternate hosts) management of hyperparasites and cultivation practices, can be used to augment host resistance genes and resistance diseases epi demics or insect populations. A key point in this program is that other appropriate disease and insect controls will not be ignored by relying solely on host plant resistance.
5. Objective h - To evaluate populations or plant pathogens for tneir range or changes in virulence.
Collections and isolates of key pathogens will be brought to College Station and evaluated under controlled conditions. However, race identifications will not be the prime consideration of this program, rather it will be used to augment the ADIN, IDIN and Uniform Disease Nurseries, as a tool for evaluation of host resistance (Frederiksen, et al., 1974, 1975). The genetic variability and range in virulence of plant pathogens is necessary. A component of this program will be the initiation of critical disease diagnostic services such as identification of specific races of pathogens and laboratory identi fication of virus or viruslike organisms through use of antigen properties. 13
6. ObJective 6 - lo develop systems for managing arthropod pests of sorghum,
Identification of germplasm possessing differing levels ot resistance to the greenbug, corn leaf aphid, sorghum midge, and spider mites has resulted from the current program. Resistance mechanisms involved have been identitied or are currently being studied. Pest resistant sorghums wiil be integrated with natural biological control. A Texas program of biological control of arthropod pests of grain sorghum was initiated in 1972.
The objectives of the current biological control program are to obtain efficacy data on the more abundant, indigenous natural ene ,ies and to introduce and establish new, exotic natural enemies. Research currently in progress includes the following: a) evaluation of native natural enemies of greenbug, sorghum midge, and spider mites in central and west Texas; b) release and evaluation of an exotic parasite of greenbug; and c) release and evaluation of 4 exotic, phytoseild predators of spider mites. Cooperation with the USDA-ARS Beneficial Introduction Laboratory, currently engaged in seeking new exotic parasites of greenbu in France and Mediterranean countries, is expected to provide additional parasite and predator species for future releases. Cooperation with personnel affiliated with the University of California at Riverside will provide additional exotic species of photoseiid predators of spider mites. Each species of natural enemy released represents new opportunities for a successful program in sorghum production. Beneficial arthropods identified and studied as part of the Texas program are also obvious candidates for release in other sorghum producing countries with the same or closely related pest species.
H. Work Plan - First Year
1. Breeding, screening, Evaluating, and Selecting
These activities involve an integrated interdisciplinary approach toward the development of tropical sorghums for cultivation in temperate and tropical regions. The work plan stresses ecologically sound host plant resistance as a means of combating diseases and pests.
a. Evaluate and screen selected sorgnum introductionsaas they become available and appropriate converted and partially converted exotic lines for downy mildew, head smut, toliage diseases, webworm bollworm, curn leaf aphid, yellow sugar cane aphid, mfdge, and mite. lL
b. Screen and evaluate breeding lines containing disease and insect resistance to do,,my mildew, head smut, maize dwarf mosaic, lodging, charcoal rot, greenbug, midge, and Bank's grass mite. Continue testing to find the ideal chemicals for controlling lowiiy mildew.
c. Artiticial inoculations with selected pathogens wili be (lone to complement natural screening programs during oft seasons when natural infection is not possible and for studies on nature and mechanisms of host resistance.
d. Biological, chemical, and cultural control of selected patho gens will he studied -s a means of enhancing host resistance or as alternate means of control.
e. Several popnlations containing disease and insect resistance will be grown and random mated. These populations include TP13, TPI-4, those with )!D, resistance, loaging resistance, and head smut resistance. Up to 100 lines from existing populations will be screened fcr heat smut resistance at a minimum of eight 'niform Head Smut Nurseries.
f. Selection from TPPR (midge resistant population) will be evaluated to identify those lines to be comosited for additional random matings. Seleocions will be made of im proved agronomic types for inclusion in the midge breeding nursery.
g. Continue to backcross previously identified greenbug resistant lines to elite U. S. lines to transfer the genes for re sistance into improved agronomic types.
h. Continue screening an evaluation of so_'ghum midge resistant sorghums; continue screening trials of. regional tests of selected material. Develop a uniform testing program of screening midge resistant sorghums by manipulating planting dates and adult midge counts.
i. Continue to improve techniques for determining the mechanisms of resistance to the sorghum midge and spider mites. Com pare resLtaint and susceptible sorghums under natural and introduced infestations. j. Make extensive tests to examine both the tropical adaptation and combining ability of several temales to standard males to determine yield potential of the tropical adaptation characteristic. (Tropically adapted females by a standard male have produced significantly greater yield than any commercial hybrid tested.) 15
2. Nursery Trials
a. The International Disease and Insect Nursery (IDIN) will include new and improved disease and insect resistant sources. The IDIN will be distributed to all those requesting seed throughout the world - 22 locations last year with a goal of 30 locations in 1977. The IDIN has been a 30 entry test composed of tile best multidisease and insect resistant sorghums along with appropriate elite sorghum control varieties and disease differentials. Countries which will receive the IDIN include Argentina, India, Mexico, Senegal, and Venezuela.
b. The All Disease Nursery (ADN) will include improved disease resistant sources as well as elite insect resistant sources. The ADN will be tested against the widest range of diseases possible under a wide range of environmental conditions. Twenty-three, 70 entry, two replication tests were planted this year - 32 entries were highly resistant to downy mildew. A greater number of nurseries with a larger number of entries are planned for 1977.
c. Lodging nurseries will be planted at several locations to screen promising lines fur the several types of lodging which may occur, such as root lodging, weak neck, moisture stress charcoal rot type lodging, after freeze stalk break age and insect lodging complexes. The best sources of lodging resistance have been placed in the Statewide Lodging Test (SLT). Fifteen of these tests were planted this year and the number will be increased in 1977. Other lodging tests to be planted will be the 36 entry Advanced Lodging Test (ALT) and Preliminary Lodging Tests (PLT) and the 97 entry Hybrid Lodging Test (ILT).
d. The Grain Weathering Test (seed mold) will be grown at several locations under severe weatherdng conditions to screen for resistance to seed mold. A 25 entry replicated test containing lines with the least weathering was planted at nine locations this year. A program of like magnitude will be continued in 1977.
e. A replicated Midge Resistant Test will be assembled trom the midge resistant lines and grown at several locations in 1977. Several sorghum breeding lines have been identified as resistant to the sorghum midge. None of them possess the yield potential necessary for producer acceptance. An intensified breeding program to transfer resistance to disease resistant types with high yield potential will be undertaken. 16
f. Nurseries will be established to evaluate mite resistant sorghums - hybrids and derived breeding Tines.
2. Linkage and Utilization Activities
a. Selected elite disease and insect resistant breeding lines will be released and distributed as the, are identified and seed is increased. Proposed candidates tor release are:
Tx 2714 - Tx 2733 - disease resistant zerazera derivative restorer lines Tx 2734 - Tx 2748 - greenbug resistant restorer lines Tx 2749 - Tx 2752 - greenbug resistant A and B lines Tx 2567 - Tx 25/3 - lodging and charcoal rot resistant, mite resistant, disease resistant restorer lines Tx 2753 - Tx 2757 - grain weathering resistant, Cercospora resistant, lodging resistant, high yiJId, disease resistant restorer lines TAM Bk's six downy mildew resistant sudan tyne bulks TAM Bk's eight downy milcew resistant torage type bulks TP2R - multiple disease resistant population TP6B - standard B-line population TP7B disease resistant B-line population.
b. Evaluate the performance of greenbug resistant sorghums under expanded acreage as grown by producers.
c. Meet at least once each year with other A.I.D. financed in stitutions involved in sorghum improvement to review results and exchange information.
d. Conduct field trials in a minimum of 8 DCs.
e. Maintain and expand linkages with ICRISAT, ALAD, OAU/STRC, and coontry operations in Senegal, India, and a minimum of two other developing countries.
f. Develop training programs for professionals and graduate students from developing countries, develop and implement short courses and workshops, and conduct in-country, on the-job training for I)C sorghum researchers.
I. General Appraisal
This project renewal has been given high priority by the TA/AGR Crop Production Division. The proposal is sound in design and cost estimates (although larger than those of the first three year contract) i7
are appropriate to the level of effort intended. The increased em phasis on getting research results into the sorghum breeding programs of the developing nation and international agencies accounts for the intensified activities and increased budget estimates.
A detailed review of the on-going project should he conducted before the end of thp first three year period of operations - to assess progress, to evaluate the size and direction of the proposed research efforts, to consider the needs of the DC institutions and to determine any possible need for redirection.
The contractor has a strong staff with outstanding experience and competence in developing disease and insect resistant sorghum varieties. One variety developed for resistance to tiie greenbug has been released and commercial hybrid companies have enough seed available for 5 million acres in 19/6.
Progress to date on the first three year phase of this contract has been exceptionat and performance of the staff has been excellent.
J. Environmental Considerations
typical of crop improvement research projects financed by A.I.D. there are no environmental problems expected from the proposed renewal of this research project nor from adoption of the improved materials. Since the project is aimed at developing disease and insect resistant sorghums lor developing countries, it follows that as these improved varieties are utilized by growers that the requirements tor pesticides and chemical concrol methods will be reduced. 18
K. BUDGET INFORMATION
March 1, 1977 February 29, 1980 - Three Year Budget
Ist yr. 2nd yr. 3rd yr.
Wages and Salaries 116,500 126,500 150,000
Fringe benefits 10,458 11,310 13,688 overhead 57,145 61,985 73,500
Equipment and Supplies 31,766 30,000 30,000
Travel and per diem 45,039 50,000 50,000
Other Direct Costs 29,092 30,205 32,812
290,000 310,000 350,000
Three year total - 950,000
Proposed 1977-1978 budget by Project Activities
Per Cent Of Total
Breeding - Sorghum Entomology 24%
Breeding - Sorghum Pathology, Lodging 21%
Pathology 22%
Entomology 19%
International Testing Program 14% 19
L. New Positions
The budget includes salary for the following three new positions:
-- Entomologist at College Station to assist in establishing, rating, and harvesting insect nurseries during the summer, and establish ing and maintaining greenhouse insect culturec and conducting screening trials during the winter.
A research associate to assist in threshing and preparing seed to be grown in all of the disease and insect nurseries, at Lubbock. lie also will assist in planting and caring for nurseries, in in oculation, making disease and insect ratings and harvesting, as well as preliminary summarization of data.
-- At College Station, a plant scientist to conduct International Disease, Insect and Performance Nurseries. He will partially summarize these data, work with data processing, and jointly establish seed increase programs. 4,0 0.f,., , PRCJ ECT DESIGN SUMMARY Life of P"c,eo, to 2/29/80 LOGICAL FRAMEWORK F,o, FY 3/1177 U S F.-d,- $950,/0 Improvement of Crain Sorghum for Developing Ta F nr tes (DCs) __ Polrct Tfle & N -nbe - Cr- NARPATIVE SUMMARY OBJECTIvEL VERIFIABLE :NDCATORS [ MEANS OF VERIFICATION . C,RTAT A5S-MPT!GNS P.n, rhos, , Coe Th. bd.r ai,., 'a Meo ,.. of Coo! Ach, 1. Official production and population Ats.-p!,oo Iot - i 'ors: 5 h ,, p'0 *C, Co!t. S: I. Significant 1 increase in per statistics (FAO, Foreign Agricultural I. DCs will actively attempt To increase quantity and nutritional capita production of major food Service estimates), to expand food crop production. value of food crops in developing crops in DCs. 2. Nutritional quality surveys in DCs. 2. Nutritional countries. cuality can be 2. Improvement in nutritional quality improved without major con of major DC food crops. straints on yield.
r..j.cf PuPos.: Cond-ons ?hai -Hndcote purpose has beon 1. Publication and reports of DC govern- Assvmpt,ons foracelng pvrpso: To make available to DCs high-yielding, ach,".&d End ofp,ol.ct sitis. mental agencies; on-site inspections of 1. Solutions can be found to nutritious varieties of sorghum with 1..iew, supvrior varieties available seed supply, major constraints. multiple resistance to moisture and to farm ers in DCs. 2. On-site inspection and review by AID/W 2. Agriculture extension ser temperature stresses, diseases and 1 2. Research and development nzcivi- personnel and consultants, vices are able anc wi ling to insects. together with improved practices ties in sorghum effecti.ely assumed promote prcven practicts. for their cultivation, by DC agencies and international 3. DC research institutions institutions and linked by conmuni- develop adequate capabilities. cations network.
Moagniudeaf of tpt': 1. Reports by Lontractor. Assvmptons forochoengSop.'t 1. Identification of superior germ plasm. 1. Not quantifiable. 2. Reports by contractor, USAIDa, DC 1. DCs and USAIDs will request 2. Incorporation of desirable traits Into 2. At least 2 superior varieties for cooperators, and international agencies. technical assistance; research broadly-adapted varieties suitable for each major agroclimatic region. 3. Same. findings DC use. will be availahle. 3. At least I test location in each 4. Contractor reports. 2. Cocperaticn of DCs. 3. Fvaluatlon of Improved varieties and cajar sorghum-growlng zone. 5. Contractor reports, comunications 3. Interest and resources practices exist in LCs. 4. Total of 10 DC trainees com- and reports from DCs and international In 4. Training of DC personnel in sorghum tICs. pitting training. agencies. 4. Collaboration cf Interna- research. 5. 'inkages with 3 international Itlonal institutIons. 5. Establishment of effective linkages cen,ers and at least 10 DC insti- 5. Sufficient interest among with DC agencies. tutions. DCs and qualified personnel.
g.ps: I,.plo-.aho Ta,g.t (Typ. d O.nt,ty) 1. AID/W records. 1. AID/W provides financial support ana 1. Ast pfons fo. p'- g cP.gs: AID/W funding at approximately 2. Contractor reports, on-site inspec- 1. AIDA funding will be avail project guidance. $950.000 for 3 yrs. tiona. able on schedule and in quan 2. Contractor provides qualified per- 2. 70 man months/year technical per- 3. USAID reports, on-site verification. tlty agreed upon. sonnel and backstopping facilities. sonnel; adequate laboratory facili- 2. Contractor will have neces 3. Participating personnel and coopera- ties; 5 or more acres field research sery qualified personnel; tion provided by 1) DCs, 2) USAIDs, area. and 3) international university facilities will be organizations. 3. Not directly quantifiable. available to project.
USAIDsd3. International organizations. and DCa will have per sonnel and resources to support this activity. Informal Minutes of the Research and Development Committee Meeting August 3, 1976
Chairman: Dr. Erven Long, AA/TA
Project: I. Development of Improved Sorghum - University of Nebraska, Research (RDA 12)
2. Improvement of Grain Sorghum for Developing Countries - Texas A&M, Research (RDA #2)
Discussion Highlights
Since the two proposals for extension of research activities are related to the sane grain, they were discussed simultaneously. It was pointed out that research work being conducted at the University of Nebraska on the physiology of sorghum and at Texas A&M on diseases affecting sorghum complement research efforts on the grain being made at ICR[SAT in lndia. This Center has international responsibility to provide linkag-es betw'een national and. international institutions involved in sorghum research.
Question: Why doesn't A.I.D. provide the center with necessary funds to contract with nntional research institutions if ICRISAT plays such an important role in sorghum research? This would, relieve A.I.D. of, inanagement respon.,ibilities.
This suggestion was discussed at the recent Centers Week at which it was sensed that although the centers want to establish close linkages with the various developed-country research institutions, they would prefer not to accept the responsibility for administering A.I.D. grants to such institutions. The same concept has been tabled by the Cormnittee on Title Xi1.
The.. rtliai.. re.--: sted 1tt the Project Statement on both projects e:ent which will clearly set forth the rela.:onsr,ip becween cIZAT and the two universities. MOTi g: r.at the projects be approved for the period and amounts stated.
VOTE: Unanimously approved.
.PROJECT STATEMENT
A. Project Summary
1. Statistical
Project Title: Improvement of the Nutritive Quality and Productivity of Barley for Semiarid Regions of the World. AID/ta-C-1094
New or Extension: Extension for three years.
Contractor: Grants and Contracts, Montana State University
Principal Investigators: Robert F. Eslick, Co-Principal Investigator Lark P. Carter, Co-Principal Investigator
Duration: Current Contract: March 26, 1974 to March 25, 1977 Proposed Contract: March 26, 1977 to March 25, 1980
Funding to Date : $600,000 to March 25, 1977
Estimated Additional Funding : $849,800 to March 25, 1980
3/26/77 to 3/25/78 - $295,300 3/26/78 to 3/25/79 - 271,300 3/26/79 to 3/25/80 - 283,200
Project Manager: Edward J. Rice 2
2. Narrative Summary
TA/AGR contracted with Montana State University in 1974 to perform or provide certain services in connection with development of barleys for the semiarid areas of the world. The contract provided for efforts in three areas:
-- nutrition,
-- drought resistance and water use efficiency, and
-- disease resistance.
The principal thrust of the project is to accomplish its objectives by providing the genetic materials to make their respective tasks easier -- to international research centers working with barley and to national barley breeding programs. Necessary back-up research has been undertaken at Montana State and the contractual obligations of the initial three year contract should be completed by March of 1977.
Representatives of the project have visited barley breeders in Turkey, Lebanon, Egypt, Tunisia, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, England, Mexico, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and the Philippines to develop liaison. The proposed renewal will provide for much greater world-wide visibility of the project and enable Montana State University to assume a position of world leadership in barley improvement.
B. Research Purpose and Expected Products
1. Purpose
Objective A -- To increase the nutritive value of barleys consumed by peoples throughout the world, particularly in the DCs.
Objective B -- To increase the yield level of barley grown in semiarid regions of the world, particularly in the DCs.
Objective C -- To decrease losses caused by barley diseases, particularly in the DCs. 2. Objectives and Expected Products
Research results expected will be those which will bring about barleys with improved nutritive value, viable breeding programs utilizing high yielding lines and varieties under conditions of drought stress, populations with improved resistance to diseases and pathogenic races prevalent in the 1)Cs, and evaluating their usefulness and distributing to DC breeders and international research centers.
Objective A -- Nutritive Value:
Research will be directed at examining barley cultivars found to be of high nutritional value on the basis of protein quantity, protein fractions, amino acid quantity and quality, true digestible protein, biological value of the protein, total digestible calories and development of procedures for accurately predicting these characteristics. Systems will be established for the simple transfer of high lysine genes to existing populations. Broad and narrow-based populations homozygous for high lysine will be developed, increased and distributed for local DC variety development. As new barleys are developed by the plant breeders they are monitored for nutritional quality, stability, palatability and factors related to end-product use.
Objective B -- Drought Resistance, Drought Escape and Water Use Efficiency:
Project will develop a series of varieties or lines of known ranked drought resistance -- a factor required for the success of such studies. Selection of barley varieties with more extensive rooting systems appear to facilitate the development of drought resistant varieties. Indications are that reduction of wind velocity and tirbulant transfer over canopies may be one of the easiest means of increasing water use efficiency in semiarid areas. Higher yielding, drought-escaping varieties with good water use efficiency are being sought. A series of yield trials with maturity isogenes will be conducted to determine how early a variety must be to be successfully grown under a given environment.
Objective C -- Disease Resistance:
Barley diseases often are the limiting factor in production and have received little attention by DC barley breeders. This Montana State University research objective will be accrmplished by (1) single gene transfer involving translocations and recurrent selection procedures, (2) developing resistance in broad-based populations, and (3) developing broad-based resistance in narrow-based agronomically adapted populations. This research proposes to bring barley stripe mosaic virus (BSN\V) under control through disease resistance and the control of the virus through cultural practices. The inheritance of resistance to BSMV to seed transmission is being studied to learn more about the inheritance and to identify chromnosomes and alleles responsible for this resistance. 4
3. Progress To Date
Progress during the first two years of the three-year phase of this contract has been according to plan and performance of staff has been excellent. A visual presentation of output is contained in Section H which shows the time phasing of activLties over the present contract as well as the contract renewal period.
Montana State University has accomplished or has made progress on the following researcl activities:
a. Nutrition
1. All two row barleys in the world's collection are being screened for lysine.
2. Refined a fast, accurate lysine analysis method.
3. Demonstrated that value of high lysine for swine, rats and poultry.
4. Demonstrated that all high lysine genes are not equally effective nutritionally.
5. Discovered four additional high lysine genes; there are now 13 total.
6. Initiated support to CIMNT and Korean MOA nutrition laboratories.
7. Developed ten high lysine lines (40 percent increase) which yield approximately 100 bu/acre.
8. Accomplished double translation of whole gene (3-7) homozygous transfer of yellow dwarf, net bloch, and high protein.
9. Demonstrated that high lysine gene activity is environmentally affected which will allow differentiation of gene use for specific locations.
b. Drought Resistance
1. Found that longer awns decrease water loss by cooling head.
2. Developed numerous isogenetic lines on the basis of plant color.
3. Demonstrated .8 inch water saving under an isogenetically lighter colored canopy of barley because of lower temperature and reduced heat load.
4. Ranked plant characteristics associated with drought resistance. 5
c. Disease Resistance
1. Found two genes and worked out the transfer mechanism for scald resistance.
2. Made a collection of barley germplasm in the Near East region and screened for disease resistance.
3. Found gene by trisomics for net bloch and found transfer route.
4. Have spent most time on stem rust but have not found gene transfer.
d. Nursery Development
1. Scald resistant nursery by Fall 1976.
2. Recurrent selection nurseries sent to ALADS, Tunisia, Korea, and Dr. Ramage of Arizona State.
3. Isogenic populations to be sent to Cairo and Korea in the Fall of 1976.
C. Significance and Pationale for the Research
1. The Development Problem
This research proposal fits well into A.I.D. goals and policies. Its aim is to increase production of high quality food for humans and feed for live stock. Since barley is grown by small farmers in many of the DCs, increased production will improve both the production and profitability of small farmer output. Greater production -vill result in more cereal, milk and meat available to the urban poor.
The proposed high lysine barley research is a continuing effort to utilize the high lysine character for the improvement of barley as a human food and livestock feed crop ai'd thereby improve the nutrition of people. Barley is a major crop with which people of the DCs try to meet their nutritional needs. The greatest proportion of barley grown around the world is used for livestock feed. When livestock feed quality increases, livestock production increases and so does human nutrition. 6
2. State-of-the-art Which Supports This Research Proposal
TA/AGR has long supported research to improve the quality and quantity of wheat, corn, soybeans, other legumes, and rice. The first TA/AGR supported research for barley was instigated Linder the Montana State University initiated in March of 1974. Barley is an important cereal crop around the world. Its adaptability to a wide array of environments is greater than any other cereal crop. Barley is an important crop in developing countries and nutritionally improving the crop is critical as the "food gap" widens.
Reasons why barley research is important include:
--Need to know which barleys contain the highest quality protein from the human nutrition viewpoint.
--For those foi whom barley is a major food item (and processors of human foods from barley) there must be assurance of varietal identity in terms of protein quantity and quality.
--Need to reestablish the effect of variations in soil fertility and plant-water relationship on the nutritional significance of barley in terms of protein qu:.lity.
-Because knowledge about the biochemical composition and properties of barley is lacking, this research work on the solubilization of their proteins and their fractionation into.pure entitities is important.
-Plant breeders do not know enough about the specific effects of various physiological and morophological features on plant water use efficiency.
--Barley populations must be developed to provide germplasm for use in overcoming establishment problems found in DCs; techniques must be developed which will provide the proper conditions for selection of desi.-d genotypes. 7
Results D. Plans to Develop Linkages and to Facilitate Utilization of Research in The project calls for quantifying a number of pleiotropic effects breeders barley isogenes -- effects of particular significance to plant information practicing visual. selection on a plant basis or row basis. This of the will be forwarded to linked DC breeders with Montana's evaluation significance in terms of plant breeding.
Montana State University will assist in the establishment of laboratories (perhaps three) in different ecological areas of the world with the capabilities for of utilJzing the microbiological assay method for lysine determination -- centers. the benefit of national. and international agricultural research
The contractor iso will encourage establishment of a central screening between facility for seed-borne barley stripe mosaic virus in seed moving the International breeding programs. This responsibility has been accepted by Group on Board for Plant Genetic Resources sponsored by the Consultative as requested. International Agricultural Research -- with Montana cooperating, the As a service to cooperating International and National Centers trials. The contractor would screen material going into advanced uniform yield yield trials distributed seedling screening (at the international center level on scald and net either by ALAD or CIMMYT) would be for stem rust, leaf rust, blotch resistance. be distributed As recurrent selection populations are developed, they will Additional to international centers and DC national breeding programs. plans for utilizing research results are:
--Distribute improved seeds of developed isogenics and varieties upon the requests of DC and international center breeders.
testing --Supply seed of lines which breeders may be interested in or using as parents for distribution by cooperating international centers.
--Forward directly to DC breeders complete details of screening on techniques they may find useful and that are proven and are hand or developed during life of the project. 8
--At least one "barley breeding" workshop will be conducted during the life of the project; additional workshops may be scheduled on a regional basis.
--As technical information becomes available it will be published in recognized technical journals, as an aid to DC barley breeders.
--Professional staff of the projects, from Montana State University, will be available for short term consulting to the extent per mitted by available funds as based on requests.
--Provide training facilities at Montana State and conduct on-the job short courses for DC barley breeders.
-- Visit barley breeders at National and International Research Cen ters to exchange information and study breeding results. --Attend national and international meetings to present papers on
progress of barley breeding research.
E. Management Considerations
No unusual management problems are expected to arise in connection with this project. It is similar in concept and design tc rther centrally funded crop improvement research projects.
Noncontract funded inputs will be substantial. Montana State Uni versity will contribute 50 work months, of 12 staff professionals, for the life of the contract. In addition there are 30 other research grants and projects at Montana State University which contractor states will contribute to this p.oject.
Project will be evaluated through a review and evaluation team visit to the campus and by constant review of the project monitor in TA/AGR. :9
The Contractor will clear manuscripts with TA/AGR monitor before publication of any articles resulting from this research.
F. Project Background Description
Objective A -- Nutritive Value:
Barl]c' is a manjor source of protein and energy for people in the Middle East an7d North Africa. The cooler, semiarid environment in this sector of the ,orld permits the production of barley where other cereals are less adapted. Plant breeders and nutritionists must strive to develop barley, as well as other cereals, which has a combination of sound agronomic traits and the desirable nutritional qualities.
in 1968 the first high protein, high lysine barley line was isolated in Sweden from the world collection of barleys. This line is the variety Hiproly of Ethiopian origin and has a 20-30 percent increase in percent lysine. This barley has been proven to be of superior nutritional value to mice and rats with increased weight gains, protein efficiency ratios, biological value, net protein utilization and lysine true digestibility. The drawback of this Hliproly line is that there is a 60 percent yield depression as compared with a normal lysine line. Montana State is optimistic on breaking this yield reduction associated with high lysine in Hiproly -- they base this optimism on work done at Oregon, Washington and the University of Alberta (where they have lines with the Hiproly gene which yield equal to the best two row lines). MSU states they they are at the plump, fertile, hi-lysine stage with some of their lines and soon will yield test them.
Objective B -- Drought Resistance, Drought Escape and Water Use Efficiency:
In the last few years the contractor has established that the morphological features which differ in their available isogenic lines of barley have a significant influence on the way in which the plant canopies interact with their environment. Features studied include awns, leaf color and leaf width.
This research has been conducted to increase the yield level of barley grown in semiarid regions, particularly in DCs. Study of rates of radiation reflection from light vs. dark green barley lines indicates that light color may have considerable potential for reducing the heat load imposed upon plant canopies under seminrid conditions. Studies have been initiated to study the influence of leaf area on water use efficiency.
Work is going forward to develop a set - tester varieties which are classified for water use efficiency; to develop a technology applicable for screening plants and selections for drought resistance; to determine the influence of certain genes on water use efficiency and the possibility of utilizing mixtures of tall and short growing barleys to modify evapotranspiration from barley canopies. 10
Objective C -- Disease Resistance and Control:
The line of approach on this research project has been to place a major resistance ene in an agronomically adapted population by the use of a specially selected translocation. Once the correct translocation is found additional marker genes (e.g., male sterility, seedling markers) can be placed ii the same interstitial segment. This allows the resistant gene, in combination with the translocation, to be added to a recurrent selection population without having to screen for resistance in every cycle of selection.
W:ork on stem rust has centered on locating the proper translocation stock -- it has not been found. Activities will be intensified in 1976 by eval-iating additional translocation stocks. Other areas of research include scald, net blotch, leaf rust, covered smut, and barley stripe mosaic virus. Experience with Middle East isolates of scaled, net blotch, leaf rust and covered smut indicates relatively low virulence on differential cultivars. This situation is likely to change rapidly once resistant stocks are introduced in the area. Thus, it is advantageous to anticipate this by developing barley populations containing multiple and diverse sources of resistance to these diseases.
G Research Project Design and Methods
Objective A -- Nutritional Value:
To increase the nutritive value of barley consumed by people, particulary in the DCs.
--Improve the amino acid balance in barley, particulary lysine by (1) continuing to screen the world barley collection, (2) improving the microbiological assay method for lysine determination, (3) agronomic worth and stability of lysine and protein when grown in diverse environments, (4) determining chromosome location, allelisms and gene action of high lysine genes as they arc varified (5) establishing genetic systems of high lysine transfer which can be simply employed in DCs with limited resources to in corporate high lysine into existing lines, (6) determining the effect of fertilization on nutritive value and relative lysine production, (7) evaluate the feasibility of developing regression equations from animal data and amino acid analysis to predict biological value of barley protein, and (8) continuing to predict biological value of barleys discovered or developed which are known to deviate significantly from the norm of known varieties. -Evaluate barley protein composition as it relates to protein efficiency ratio, true digestibility, biological value and net protein utilization in laboratory animals by (1) determining and evaluating the composition of protein in barleys selected for high and low protein and/or lysine; (2) investigating the relationship between the Osborne fractions of barley protein, amino acid composition and nutritive value and (3) investigating the use of protein composition and fractionation as selection tools for improving the nutritive quality of barley protein.
-- Increase the total caloric content and digestibility energy of barley by increasing the percentage of total lipids to the kernel by (1) determining the total lipid composition of barleys known to deviite in total lipid quantity, (2) measuring the digestibile anergy in high and low fat barleys, (3) determining the agronomic worth (10 to 16 locations) and stability of the lipid content and composition and nutritive value of high fat genes in barlevs grown in diverse environments, and (4) incorporating high fat and high waxy characters into the high lysine broad and narrow genetic base hull populations.
Objective B -- Drought Resistance, Drought Escape and Water Use Efficiency:
To increase the yield levels of barley grown in semiarid regions, particularly in DCs.
-Develop a set of tester varieties, 25 two-row and 25 six-row, which is classified for water use efficiency. Accumulated yield data, heading dates and plant heights for selected varieties grown in Montana and in regional yield trials from 1935 to 1975 will be tabulated and regression analysis and interpretation applied. Twenty five to several hundred location-years data are available for the various varieties.
--Attempt to develop simple techniques which are applicable to screening large numbers of individual plants and selection for drought resistance by (1) determining dry down rate of rootless tillered barley seedlings, (2) determining depression in number of developed rnchis internodes under stress conditions as compared to optimumi conditions as an indication of early seedling drought resistance, (3) calculating modulus of elasticity of selected plants, (4) determining transpiration of excised heads, (5) determining plant water potentials, and (6) estimating root growth patterns and water use efficiencies by soil water extraction measurements. 12
--Attempt to determine the influence of certain genes on water use efficiency and drought resistance by (1) plant color, (2) leaf area and (3) awn barbing.
--Determine the possibility of using mixtures of tall and short isogenes of barlcv to decrease evapo-transpiration and thus improve water use efficiency.
-- Establibhitig carly maturing day length insensitive recurrent selection populations by (1) determining relative date of heading of a number of pure lines; (2) measuring pleiotropic effects on maturity; (3) determining allelisM among a series of early maturing genes and estaiblish mode of inheritance, (4) yield testing and interpreting results from a series of maturity isogenes in a number of varieties and (5) assigning non-allelic genes to chromosomes.
Objective C -- Disease Resistance and Control
To decrease losses caused by disease; these activities reflect additions to objectives in the original project:
--Develop for release to DCs one or more barley populations with good levels of resistance for each important disease (stem rust, scald, net blotch, leaf rust, covered smut and BSMV).
-Determine annually the reactions of entries in uniform tests in the Middle East to stem rust, scald, net blotch and leaf rust.
--Research education of barley breeders and plant pathologists in identification and control of seed-borne barley stripe mosaic virus.
Feeding Trials
Feeding trials with weanling rats and growing chicks will be conducted with barleys selected for protein quantity and quality through amino acid and nitrogen analysis and total calorie content through gross energy and fat analysis. Similar trials will also be conducted with barleys grown in different environments (location and nitrogen fertilizer application), pearled barleys, the by-products of pearling and protein fractions of barleys. Biological value, true protein digestibility, net protein utilization, metabolizable 13 energy and digestible energy will be measured in cultivars proving to have superior nutritional qualities in feeding trials with rats and chicks. Barleys deviazing significantly from the norm in the feeding trial results and in nitro (,e and otergy utilization measurements will be studied by protein frctionation and/or analysis for total fatty acid structure. An attem-.t: wil.l be made to correlate and develop regression equations for biological deviations. observed with rats and chicks with the structure of protein and fat:, amino acid composition and other chemcial factors.
PruLtiLty wil.l he ,iven to thore barleys demonstrating superior nutritionl qualities or potential value. Recommendations for seed increase an(/or release of genetic material to DCs will be dependent upon genetic stability of (a) nutritional quality, (b) superior agronomic traits, (c) environmental adaptability and (d) acceptance by the target DC.
I-. Time Phase Work Plan
The following eight y'ages list, by outputs, the activities of this project (work plan) and include charts which show the time phasing of activities over the present contract as well as the contract renewal period. 14
Ala (1) All 2-row barleys currently in world collection will have been screened foL lysine. AIb (2) Microbiological assay screening method developed to the point it is a reliable technique. (3) Microbiological assay screening method improved until reliability is approximately equivalent to that of the amino acid analyzer. (4) Training of personnel and establishment of a laboratory to utilize the technique in connection with international research centers or in developing countries, monitoring "f established laboratories. (5) Neotec Grain Quality Analyzer calibrated for protein samples made available for calibrating to Kjeldahl protein percentages. (6) Reliability of the Grain Quality Analyzer for barley protein determinations established. Leaflet on reliability, operation precautions, trouble-shooting prepared. (7) Grain Quality Analyzer calibrated for barley fat determinations, samples for calibration made available, limitations determined, results included in above leaflet. Aic (8) Completed for the variety Betzes; as a technique. Aid (9) Completed for Betzes se seg 1, Hiproly, and High Amylose Glacier. (10) Completed for Riso mutants 1508, 29, and 86. (11) Completed for Riso mutants 7, 8, 9, 13, and 56. (12) Other genes as they are found. Ale (13) Hiproly ;ene assigned to chromosome 7. (14) Betzes se I seg I assigned to chromosome 1. (15) lli-amylose Glacier gene assigned to chromosome. (16) Risco 1508 gene assigned to chromosome. (17) Risco 7, 8, 9, 13, 29, 56, and 86 assigned to chromosomes. (18) Allelism of the above genes established. AIf (19) Genetic transfer system established for Betzes seg 1 seg 1. (20) Genetic transfer system established for Hiproly. (21) Genetic transfer system established for Riso 1508. (Time schedules for 19, 20, 21 can only be approximate.) AIg (22) 1st recurrent selection population (narrow base) with hiproly gene available for distribution.
(23) Improved population with broader genetic base available for distribution. (24) Hulless form avaiLable for distribution. (25) Narrow genetic gase recurrent selection population with Betzes s segI gene available for distribution. (26) Narrow genetic base recurrent selection population with Risco 1508 gene established. Ah (Completion dates are dependent upon completion of AIf when "broad base" is interpreted to mean the world collection or CCXXX.) (27) Complete transfer of seg 1 seg 1 Betzes to broad based genetic population. (28) Complete transfer of Hiproly gene to broad base genetic population. AIj (29) Complete evaluation of Hiproly and Hi-amylose Glacier. (30) Complete evaluation of Riso 1508. 15
Alij (31) First prediction ,quation developed. (32) Improvement on equation as more information becomes available. Alke (33) Complete fcr Hiproly. (34) Complete for H-amlose Clacier. (35) Complete for Betzes seg seg_1. (36) Complete for Riso 1508. (37) Completions for other Risogenes and others. A2a (38) Completion for Hiproly. (39) Completion for 25 varieties in MSG series. (40) Completion for li-hi-lysine mutants. (41) Completion for other hi--lysine mutants. A2b (42) Using accumulated data. A2c A3a A'3b (43) Completion with initial set of 15 barleys varying from high to low fat (44) Other barleys found to be high fat and a comparison of pearled and pearlings from high and low fat barleys. A3c A3d (45) Two years data (10-16 locations) available for summary. (46) High and low fat lines from three locations have been fed fro determination of digestible energy. A3e (47) Plump, hulless, high lysine lines available. (48) Hulless, high lysine waxy endosperm lines developed and waxy hulles high fat lines developed. (49) Hulless, waxy endosperm, high fat, high lysine lines developed. (50) Increase and start evaluation. Drought Resistance, Drought Escape, and Water Use Efficiency. BI (51) Ranking developed. (52) Seed available for distribution. B2a, (53) Two years data, on spike and seedling and down rate, b,c,d, number rachis internodes, seed weights, height, f,i transpiration from excised heads, and per culm leaf area obtained from several locations where water stresses are different. B2e (54) As above for own silica content. B2g (55) Minimum two years data available for refinement of technique. B2h (56) Minimum two years data available for interpretation. B3al (57) Data summarized and distributed. B3a2 (58) Summary of two year's yields. (59) Yield trials of Golden Liberty vs. Liberty at a number of locations. (60) Yield trials of early yellow plant color di-isotypes. B3a3 (61) Measurements completed and information used for follow-up work. B3a4 (62) With mono-isotypes only. B3a5 (63) Di-isotypes of early yellow plant colors developed for several genes in 1 or more varieties. B3a6 (64) Completion of development of several recurrent selection populations for plant color, an f4f4 population will be the first. 16
B3b3 (65) Detailed Studies of three leaf width isogenes in two varieties completed. (66) Represents minimum of 12 station years data available for summarization. B3b4 (67) Pleiotropic effects of leaf widths in Hannachen and Petzes completed to be followed by Compana, Titan, Glacier isotypes. B3cl (68) Examination of seed-stocks on hand and develop as a complete set of own-roughness isogenes as possible. B4 (69) Two years yield data available. B5d (70) Complete ailelism tests. f (71) Broad based population with early gene homozygous. g (72) Effect on population determined. Disease Resistance and Control. C1 (73) Gene or genes located with trisomics. (74) Crosses to translocations to identify proper translocation for gene transfer. (75) Effect gene transfer into recurrent selection populations. C2 (76) Recurrent selection population based on resistance from accumulated minor genes available with yearly increments of improvement. (77) Recurrent selection populations based on accumulated major gene resistance available. C3 (78) Narrow-based recurrent selection population of agro nomically desirable parents containing identified major genes for resistance available. (79) Improvements on the basic populations each year available for distribution. C4 (80) Seedling reaction to several diseases available on entries in international nurseries. C5 (81) Some measure of ccntrol of barley stripe mosaic in effect for seed moving in international nurseries from country to country. (82) Distribution of agronomically improved genotypes carrying resistance to BSMV. (83) Methods of sero-diagnosis of BSMV comparisons complete. Cc 'tjf1W 3 ______Presit Ca:tract- 1974-75 :975-76 .'6-77 1-77-7 1978-79 1979-80 tritional value: Ala
AIb
AId , .4.....A. AM\ Ale .5-_1 16/
Alf ______0
/ AIg______A ______
- ______23 £223 177,'D9 - , 157-4-7S 1'75-"'6" '"J-" 19 77-7 "1 1
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j z ~X ,37\__ A2a ______;.
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B30, 0 1974-7S 1975-76 19l6 1977:-78 .97S-79 " -)-8
Dise:se r-esistance and control:
CI Stem rust ,7X__ __ 7 ______
Scald ______A______Net blotch ,7'"
Leaf rust ...... B. Stripe mosaic---. I2s'.,-,,- , /73,s -
C2 Stemn rust . ______
Scald sA-. /"6\
Net blotch Z77.' Leaf rust, 7.. Covered smut C7, Stem rust /78______-i ScaldA Net blotch -'.,
Leaf .rust._. _"_ - _- .. _
Covered smut______
CS _ _ -. _ _ 1 21
I. Ceneral Appraisal
The project renewal has been given high priority by the Crop Production Division. The proposal is sound in design and cost estimates are appropriate to the level of effort intended.
A detailed review of the project should be conducted before the end of the first threee year period of operations -- to assess progress and to determine any possible need for redirection.
The contractor has a strong staff with excellent experience in barley breeding in some of the Cs. Equipment needed for the renewal of the project is available with the exception of those items listed in the budget. Ficld facilities and equipment for breeding nurseries, screening lines and introducing germplasm, conducting agronomic trials, and growing grain for feeding trials are all available at Bozeman and outlying stations.
J. Environmental Considerations
No adverse environmental problems are anticipated from the proposed renewal of this research project, nor from the adoption of the improved germplasm or cultural practices. The main thrust of this project is the breeding of superior prptein quality, disease resistant, drought tolerant barley varieties for the DCs.
This activity is not deemed a Major Federal Action (Section 1500.6, CEQ Guideline) because the project will have no significant effects which adversely affect such aspects of the human environment as air, water, land, flora, fauna, and socioeconomic conditions.
The Threshold Decision is negative constituting a negative deteimination because project activities are restricted to controlled experimentation exclusively for the purpose of research and as such is confined to small areas which are carefully monitored. 22
K. Budget Informaion
77-78 78-79 79-80
Salaries 104,700 i12,200 120,200 Benefits 13,300 14,000 14,800 Travel Domestic 4,700 5,800 6,900 International 22,000 24,000 26,000 Workshop 38,600 - _ Equipment 10,200 6,600 - Materials & Supplies 5,600 5,900 6,200 Publicat-ions 1,000 2,000 2,500 Other Costs 5,500 6,000 6,300 Overhead 89,700 94,800 100,300 295,300 271,300 283,200 Work Months
Category 3 year total Work Months
Professional 9 Post Doctoral 36 Research Assistants 171 Technicians 96 Graduate Assistants 120 Labor 66 ToTAL -498
Equipment
1977-78
1 top loading scale :$600 Obj. A 12 hi-cor quantum sensors 2,480 Obj. B 1 three point hitch, 6 row, automatic Seed Nursery Drill 7,200 0bj. A,B,C
TOTAL $10,200
1978-79
12 rat cages for biological value determinations 800 Obj. A 6 net radiometers 3,000 Obj. B 1 infrared thermometer 1,800 Obj. B 1 feed grinder 1,000 Obj. A TOTAL 6,600
Montana State University Contribution:
(Professional Staff and time allotted to -this contract .y.early) Percent of Time
1. Dr. Jarvis H. Brown, Associate Professor of ,Agronomy .55 (crop physiology - Obj. B)
2. Dr. Thomas W. Carroll, Professor of'PlanttPathology (virologist - Obj. C) .20
3. Dr. Lark P. Carter, Associate Dean of Agriculture (administration - Obj. A, B, C) .25 24
4. Dr. A. M. El-Negoumy, Professor of Agricultural Biochemistry .45 (Protein Chemistry, Obj. A)
5. Prof. Robert F. Eslick, Professor of Agronomy (Genetics and Plant Breeding, Obj. A, B, C) .60
6. Dr. A. Hayden Ferguson, Professor of Soils (Soil Physicist, Obj. B) .50
7. Dr. Eugene A. Hockett, Research Agronomist, USDA, ARS (Genetics and Plant Breeding, Obj. A, B, C) .40
8. Dr. Charles F. McGuire, Associate Professor of Agronomy (Cereal Chemistry, Obj. A) .15
9. Dr. B. P. Moss, Associate Professor of Animal Nutrition (Animal Nutritionist, Poultry and Dairy, Obj. A) .20
10. Dr. C. Walter Newman, Professor of Animal Science (Animal Nutritionist, Swine, Obj. A) .30
11. Dr. Eugene L. Sharp, Professor of Plant Pathology and Dept. Head (Plant Pathology, Obj. C) .20
4.05
Budget Distribution of Outputs Percent of Total
Research Objective A (Nutritional Value) 50
Research Objective B (Drought Resistance & Escape, Water Use Efficiency) 30
Research Objective C (Disease Resistance & Control 20 ,. j).Jal.',.,, PROJ ECT DESIGN SUMMARY L.fe of Project:
LOGICAl. FRAMEWORK From FY _ to Fy__ Improvement of the n:utritive (uality and Tcia, v S F.ndng_ Der Peroed: Project Title & Number 'r.ductiviLty. ..--. of flarltv... for SNtniarid Regions. . . .AID/ta-C-1904 ... . .
NARRAT;VE r UVNARY OBJEC7 .ELY RCEir-ABLE !NDICATCRS .,, . . . umE--".r.7TRArdT ASSUPAPT:ONS P ;trm or Sector Goal: The broader objectve to Measures of Goal Ach-evement: -. Official prod; t. on & population Assjpions to,ocheving goal targets: '.ch isproject contributes: statistics (DC, FX', foreign agricultural 1. Staffing with highly competent service esti=ates),. professionals. To increase quantity and nutritional 1. Significant increase in per capita 2. Improvement of nutritional cality 2. Active cooperation of national, Taleo f foedscrui ndevelpnu i produSinfa nrea in perep pita serveys in DCs. regicnal and international agencies. value of food crops in developing production of barley in developing 3. Import and export statistics from 3. Continuing interest in barley as countries, countries. 2.cnre n individual 2. Improvement of nutritive quality of DCs. food for humans and feed for live To increase production of high quality barley grown in semiarid areas. stock. food for humans and feed for livestock. 4. Nutritional quality can be improved without major constraints on yield. i!OeCt Purpose: Conditions that will indicate purpose has been Assumptions forachieving purpose: jo increase the nutritive value and the achieved: End of project status. I. Contractor and cooperating groups yield level of barley grown in the New, superior, resistant varieties 1. Publications and reports of DC will find solutions to major semiarid regions and to decrease disease available to farmers. governmental agencies, on-site inspection constraints. losses and losses caused by lack of of seed supply and planted acreages and 2. Local extension agencies able & drought tolerance. Research and development activities in harvests. willing to promote improved barley effectively taken over by DC 2. On-site inspection and review by AID/W varieties and practices. agencies and international centers ond personnel. contractors and consultants. 3. DC, regional and international linked through a communications net- research institutions develop work. adequate capabilities.
Ct'puts: Magnitude of Outputs: Assumptions for achieving outputs: I. Breeding stocks useful for further DC 1. At least five superior varieties 1. Reports by contractor. 1. Research findings will be availabla breeding programs. developed. 2. Reports by contractor, USAIDs, and DCs will request assistance. 2. Widely-adapted, stress tolerant 2. Minimum of one test located in each DCs and cooperators. 2. DCs will cooperate fully. varieties suitable for use under major barley growing country. 3. Same as above. 3. Interest and resources exist in marginal conditions. 3. Total of five DC technicians 4. Contractor reports. the DCs. 3. Diverse genetic matcrial and tech- trained at Montana State. 5. Communications and reports from DCs, 4. Collaboration of international niques for use in DC's barley imirove- 4. Linkages with at least two inter- contractor and international and regional centers. ment programs. national centers and at least six DC agencies. 5. DCs posssess or are willing to 4. Well trained staffs in the DCs. institutions. train qualified personnel. 5. Effective research and informational 5. Conduct I barley breeding workshop. linkages. i 6. Train~ni Stech:nicn arsistance servicf inputs: 1;Jeienttion Tcrget (Type and Quantity) 1. AID/W records. Assumptions for providing inputs: 1. AID/W provides f'nanjlal support and I. AID/W fundi: g approximately 2. Contractor reports and on-site I. AID/W funding will be available. project guidance. $300,000 per contract year. inspections and studies. 2. Contractor will have qualified 2. Contractor provides qualified 2. flSU will contribute 50 worknonths 3. USAID reports & on-site verification, personnel and needed facilities poirsonnel, facilities, coordination & joe 12 professional staff. available to the project. /:aining. 3. DiCs, USAIDs, international centers . Participating personnel & cooperation and regional institutions possess provided by DCs, USAIDs and other U.S. the personnel and resources to institutions. support barley research. Informal Minutes of the Research and Development Committee Meeting August 3, 1976
Project: Barley Improvement - Montana State University, Research (RDA #2)
The proposal requested a three year extension to continue research on this grain. Question: Why we are involved with barley when it is not a widely used food crop? Barley is a basic food crop in the middle East and North Africa, and grows well on marginal wheat land such as in theo !editerrean area. Because of barley's importance, CGIAR has authorized the establishment of an International Research Center (WGARDA) which includes that crop as on of its major research responsi bilit ies.
Question: Since barley is a crop of interest to a limited area, shouFd-nt the Regional Bureau finance and manage the project?
It was also suggested that training should be increased to disseminate information developed on research. This will be possible after ICARDA becomes functional. We may be able to increase training with the cooperation of the Center.
The participants agreed the project should focus on terminating this actLivity at the end of this extension unless a significant break through is achieved during this period.
The project manager envisions the results from this research to be ready for application in LDCs during the next three years.
MOTION: That the proposal be approved.
VOTE: Unanimous O PROJECT SUMARY
A. PROJECT SUMMARY
1. Statistical
Project Title: Development of Improved Sorghum- Physiology of Yield and Stress Reaction
New or Extension: Extension for 3 years
Contractor: University of Nebraska
Principal Investigator: Dr. Jerry Eastin
Duration: February 11, 1977 - February 10, 19b0
Total Estimated Cost: $604,000
Funding by Fiscal Years: FY 77 - $182,000 FY 78 - $211,000 FY 79 - $211,000
Prior Funding: Life-of-project - $295,000 (FY 76 - 135,000)
Project Manager: Earl R. Leng, TA/AGR/CP
2. Narrative Summary
This is a proposal to extend research in sorghum physiology, parti cularly in relation to yield and stress tolerance, which is presently being conducted at the University of Nebraska under a centrally funded contract, AID-ta-c-1068. The work will be conducted in close collaboration with other centrally-funded contract research at Texas A&M and Purdue universities, as well as with ICRISAT and other international centers where sorghum is a major object of research.
The current project and preceding work funded by other sources have been successful in developing a better understanding of basic physiological processes in sorghum, their relation to yield and stress tolerance, and the possibilities of genetic manipulation to improve performance of breeding stocks. With further work, it is anticipated that this information can be put to practical use for the development of varieties, lines, and populations adapted to cultivation in DCs where sorghum is a major food grain crop, 2
The Nebraska group is recognized worldwide as leaders in this aspect of sorghum research, and their assistance and counsel are sought by sorghum investigators in both developed and developing countries. In particular, research workers at ICRISAT and ALAD, as well as at other institutions conducting sorghum improvement, have reported the Nebraska findings to be of significant assistance to their breeding and cultural practice programs, and have strongly urged continuation and intensification of the physiological studies.
B. RESEARCH PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVES
1. Purpose
The overall purpose of this and related projects is to make avail able to developing countries high-yielding, nutritious varieties of sorghum with multiple resistance to environmental stresses and diseases and insects, together with improved practices for their cultivation.
2. Objectives
The major objectives of the proposed project are:
Objective 1. Investigate the nature of plant stress avoidance and tolerance mechanisms, develop screening techniques and select genotypes which may contribute to the develop ment of sorghums with increased heat, drought, and cold tolerance.
Objective 2. Determine the tillage and production methods best suited for producing high yields with the low energy input under varying environmental conditions.
Objective 3. Investigate genotype differences and inheritance for mineral nutrient uptake and utilization efficiencies under mineral stresses and different cultural practices. Also study effects of mincral nutrients on heat, drought, and cold tolerances, other physio logical properties, and plant quality and yield.
Objective 4. Develop and evaluate breeding techniques, especially recurrent selection procedures applied to artificially induced random mating populations. Apply these approaches to increase yield, insect and disease resistance, grain quality, mineral uptake efficiency, and stress tolerance. 3
Objective 5. Investigate the influence of pests and pathogens on essential physiological processes in sorghum and attempt to elucidate the plant reaction mechanisms operative in plant resistance and tolerance.
"Objective 6. Develop and strengthen linkages with developing country agencies, international and regional centers, and developed country institutions carrying out sorghum improvement programs aimed at DC needs,
C. SIGNIFICANCE AND RATIONALE FOR THE RESEARCH
1. The Development Problem
Sorghum is one of the four most important cereal food grains (along with rice, wheat, and maize). It is particularly significant as a supplier of human food in sub-Saharan Africa, parts of the Near East, the Indian subcontinent, and certain low rainfall areas in Latin America. Wherever sorghum is a major crop, environmental stress is a normal feature of growing conditions, and tolerance to stress is important for the successful cultivation of the crop.
2. State-of-the-Art
Investigations on the physiology of yield and stress tolerance now indicate that breeding for high performance under stress is feasible. It remains to further define the physiological pro cesses and parameters, to work out details of breeding procedures and cultural practices suitable to improve sorghum for DC use, and to put this knowledge to practical use by producing and dis tributing breeding stocks which will be directly usable under DC conditions.
This contract project is part of a centrally-funded A.I.D. program intended to make improved sorghum varieties available to farmers in DCs.
Knowledge regarding these processes and their effects on yield has advanced considerably in the past few years, with the Nebraska research group playing a key role in these advances. It has been found that seed number is a particularly sensitive yield component to environmental effects, and also that seed size is an important manifestation of stress reaction. Under growing conditions usually encountered by sorghum, the number of seeds produced is nowhere near the potential maximum, and seed size seldom attains more than 4 seventy-five per cent of its potential. Clearly, if either or both components can be affected by selection for stress tolerance, there is a ready potential for genetic improvement in expected yield level.
Screening techniques for quick measure of stress reaction and tolerance have been partially developed. Perfection of these methods would facilitate the develipment of improved varieties, lines, and populations, if they were applied to practical breeding programs.
D. LINKAGE AND UTILIZATION PLANS
1. International Research Centers and Networks
The current project already has established linkages and close professional ties with ICRISAT, and had similar linkages with ALAD until operations of the latter organization were disrupted by civil strife in Lebanon. If the new arid lands center (ICARDA) becomes operative, it is expected that similar ties will be developed with it. The University of Nebraska is a working partner in the international sorghum research network, and regularly exchanges research information and germplasm materials with other members of this network. The project is recognized throughout the network as the major source of strength in physiology of yield and stress reaction.
2. Developing Country National and Regional Programs
During the contract extension period, efforts will be made to strengthen direct involvement and contact with selected sorghum research agencies in developing countries. The proposed SAFGRAD project in sub-Saharan Atrica is expected to provide a vehicle through which closer contact with sorghum research workers in these countries can be developed. ICRISAT and IITA, as expected major SAFGRAD contractors, will also be involved in developing these relationships. Nebraska can provide a very effective research backstop in physiology and related topics for these programs.
3. Other Centrally-funded A.I.D. Activities with U. S. Institutions
Very close working association has been established between the current project and centrally-funded research programs in sorghum at Texas A&M and Purdue Universities. There is a free exchange of research information, techniques, and seed stocks, which is expected to continue and strengthen during the ex tension period. Similar relations have been developed with 5
Kansas State University, which is proposing a research program with ptearl millet. Sorghum research workers from these and other institutions hold a special sorghum research conference once a year (in Texas in 1976), and AID-funded contract personnel regularly meet at lepst once a year (twice in 1975) to discuss matters of mutual interest.
Utilization Plans
The current system of disseminati',g research findings through publications and reports seems ro 'onal and adequate. This system utilizes established information centers, particularly those of ICRISAT and other international and regional agencies, to disseminate information and seed materials to country pro grams. Reports also are di'jeminated directly through A.I.D. channels.
E. MNAGEMENT CONSIDERATIONS
No unusual management problems are expected to arise in connection with this project renewal. As of the date of preparing this project statement, nearly 2 years experience with the present contractor's optations of the exisr ing project have shown high technical capa city, efficient administration, and excellent cooperation with A.I.D. technical and contract staff. Since the project extension con templates retention of the same principal. investigator and admini strative arrangements, it is presumed that this excellent performance will continue.
The project will be evaluated in detail by a review and evaluation team during the first year of the contract extension, probably during the growing season of 1977. This evaluation will be conducted by site visit and will include qualified outside consultants. In addition, the project will be administratively reviewed each year, and will be under frequent review by the project manager.
This will be a sole-source procurement contract, since the project will be an extension of ongoing activities and since the present contractor has not only shown excellent performance, but has pre dominant capability in the field of sorghum physiology.
Personnel inputs from the University of Nebraska and affiliated USDA-ARS staff, funded from sources other than the A.I.D. contract, are estimated at ninety-eight worker months/year of professionals and seventy-two worker months/year subprofessionals and clerical. In addition, several graduate research assistants, not funded by the A.I.D. contract, will be involved in project operations. 6
F. PROJECT BACKGROUND DESCRIPTION
1. General 3Background
Sorghum ranks among the four most important cereals (along with wheat, rice, and corn) as a human food source. Sorghum is particuiarIv important in developing nations where environmental stresses often severely limit crop growth one or more times during the se:,-srn. Much of the new land which will be brought into pro ductioni in the next 20 years will be in limiting environments (soil and aerial). Relatively little is known about how to effectively screen for desirable environmental stress reactions in sorghum.
r the uork under A.I.D. Contract ta-c-1068, and in earlier work funded b; the Rockefeller Foundation, the major objective has been to study -he effect of environmental parameters (particularly stress) on essential physiological and developmental processes as they dictate the seed number and seed size components of yield. Two environmental stresses of chief interest are temperature extremes and water deficits. Another area of interest includes soil nutrient deficiencies or toxicities which bear on the efficiency of nutrient uptake and subsequent utilization by the crop. Mineral toxicities a-e especially prominent in some of the new tropical areas being brought into cultivation. Also insects and pathogens must be recognized as limiting components of the environment. They impose limiting drains to attaining high efficiency in essential physiologic processes which dictate yield.
Cultural practice changes are useful if they improve the water, nutrient, and temperature environmentc which in turn increase biological efficiency and water use efficiency. Proposed cultural research is closely associated with physiological process research and relates to maximizing soil water retention and minimizing water loss. Successful cultural innovations depend heavily on fitting the right genotype to available resources within a given environment.
Plant breeding programs traditionally have been carried out under relatively optimal conditions to assure full expression of a geno type's potential with the assumption that the best genotypes grown under good conditions will also probably be the best under stress conditions. Reasonable evidence is available to suggest such is not necessarily true. Therefore, effort shouid be devoted to developing stress screening techniques for breeding programs, 7
Developing these screening techniques requires a good jasic understanding of environmental stress effects (including pathogens and insects) on photosynthetic and respiratory mechanisms, synthetic processes mediating metabolite utilization in all those essential processes. The overall objective is to better understand the nature of stress induced effects on essential physiological and develop mental processes in order to (a) develop screening techniques for efficient genetic manipulation for diverse environments; (b) to improve cultural practices to conserve water and nutrients; and (c) to combine appropriate genetic selections with the best cultural practices to stabilize and/or improve biological and water use efficiencies. A current status report is followed by a more de tailed breakdown of these broad objectives.
Findings and Accomplishments to Date
Th, following statement on current status (accomplishments ir the; past 5 years) is supplemented by pertinent comments inserted in the "time-phased detailed work plans" statement. Comments so inserted permit easier evaluation of investigations planned in view of past experiments and knowledge gained. a. Physiology Investigations
(1) Environmentally induced grain yield losses can frequently best be analyzed in terms of the seed size and number components of yield. Usually yield losses result most directly from seed number losses. Therefoie, a careful study of plant development stages as they relate to differentiation of a high seed number has been made. In vestigations reveal (a) that the floret differentiation stage (about 2 weeks after panicle initiation) is extremely sensitive to stress; (b) that either photosynthesis or ability to vartially assimilate developing grain in deference to other plant parts, or both, are primary limiting physiological processes; (c) that length of the grain filling period relates to yield ca acity and is shortened drastically by stiesses; and (d) that seed size seldom achieves more than 75% of its potential capacity under normal 2onditions. Much research is still needed on how to chemically and gene tically manipulate physiological and dependent developmental processes which limit seed number and seed size. Environ mental control facilities being constructed will aid these efforts greatly as well as efforts in (2) and (3) below. 8
(2) Night temperature elevation ?C above an approximate optimum reduces grain yield about 25 per cent. A 10°C elevation ieduces yield about 50 per cent. Yield reductions are paralleled by seed number reductions. These growth chamber results were consistent in both temperate and cool tolerant sorghums tested. Similar testing needs to be done in the field.
These heavy yield reductions occurred at 22 and 2°c right temperatures which ordinarily would not be con s-.dered stress temperature levels (no water stress). Obviously temperature influences on yield (by reducing seed number and grain fill period) are more subtle and more pronounced than expected. Effort should be made to develop a method to temperature type sorghums in terms of tropical, temperate or cool adaptation.
(3) Screening Techniques
(a) A heat test measuring solute leakage (by electrical conductivity) from leaf discs is being tested on lines and populations. It appears to be useful in detecting superior heat tolerant genotypes. Several genotypes have been found and distributed to several developing countries.
(b) A similar test for measuring drought tolerance is being used.
c) Initial evaluation of a field heat test for *.velop ing grain has been completed on one genotype and shows grain to be most sensitive about 7 to 10 days after bloom. Ability to discriminate amongst geno types will be evaluated the next two years.
(d) A cool temperature vigor screening test was conceived in 1975. The growth chamber test correlates fe'itively with early spring field emergence. Utility of the vigor test is being further evaluated this year in Nebraska (3 locations), South Dakota, Minnesota, and Chapingo, Mexico. A student from Mexico is conducting the tests. 9
(e) A field temperature typing test based on comparative development rates (heat units required to bloom) at 2 locations (cool and warm) at the same latitudo is being tested and appears encouraging.
(f) A root screening technique has been developed and is under test.
(g) A precise method of determining grain physiological maturity has buen developed permitting accurate de termination of grain fill period length. A popu lation has been evaluated and shown to possess con siderable variability (37 to 53 days) for grain fill period. Selection is, therefore, possible.
(4) Essential Physiological Processes
(a) Heat tolerant sorghums can carry on photosynthesis at several degrees centigrade higher than a widely adapted sorghum hybrid. These photosynthesis re sults correlate positively with screening results from the leaf disc heat test.
(b) Respiration (and likely general metabolic pace) in a cool temperature sorghum is 25 per cent faster than in a ten orate sorghum over a range from 10 to 30 C. The cool .pes reach maximum biological efficiency at a much lower temperature than the temperate types. Metabolic pace dictates biological efficiency, to a degree, and temperature dictates metabolic pace. These facts relate closely to the yield reductions reported in item 1 of this section and point to the importance of properly fitting a genotype to an environment.
(c) Grain fill period correlates positive-y with yield. Variability checks within a random mated population ranged from 37 to 53 days indicating length of grain fill can be a selection criterion.
(d) Initial exploratory experiments show differential nutrient uptake and utilization inside the plant. b. Plant Breeding and Genetics Investigations
These investigations have centered on population development, evaluation of breeding methods using the populations and development of breeder screening methods for both line and population improvement approaches. 10
(1) The first random mating U.S. populations (NP3R was the first) using the male ster .le gene were developed at Nebraska.
(2) Four of eight unselected populations, including NP3R, yielded 90 per cent or more of the average of RS 626 and RS 671 in 1975. NP3R and NF5R have maintained this average over a four-year period.
(3) The f!'-t cycle of improvement using family evaluation schemes in the random mating population NP3R gave gains of 4.4, 5.2, and 7.5 per cent respectively, for half sib, full-sib, and S1 progeny testing.
(4) S1 progeny testing has been used successfully for evaluating and recombining greenbug resistant families resulting in the populations RPIR and RP2B recently released.
(5) Populations are currently being screened jointly by physiologists and breeders for heat tolerance, drought tolerance, cool tolerance, protein content, length of grain fill period, and narrow row spacing for solid stand culture.
G. PROJECT DESIGN AND EXPANDED OBJECTIVES
1. Objective 1. (Thirty-five per cent of total effort), Investigate the nature of plant stress avoidance and tolerance mechanisms, develop screening techniques and select genotypes which may con tribute to the development of sorghums with increased heat, drought, and cold tolerance. Genotype adaptation to the prevail ing environment is critical and has not received due attention.
While the responses of plants to environmental stresses have been studied for centuries, little progress has been made in defining specific selection criteria for improved performance under stress conditions other than by empirical means. A knowledge of the mechanisms that contribute to stress resistance and the inter actions that occur among the stresses should both shorten con siderably the breeding process and result in greater stress re sistant genotypes.
2. 6'vlective 2. (Ten per cent of total effort). Determine the tillage and production methods best suited for producing high yields with low energy inputs unde, varying environmental conditiczp. Improved technology and changing environmental and economic events generally result in a need to change conventional cultural practices. Results suggest that reduced tillage and bedding systems require less energy input while still maintaining or even increasing yields. Alterations in temperature and moisture regimes are the primary effects. These strongly influence up take and utilization of mineral elements. Therefore, work pro posed in that area is important.
Nitrogen is particularly limiting in many developing areas. Cultural practices such as crop rotation which include a grain legume may help alleviate the nitrogen problem and provide a high protein human food supplement at the same time. Altering light, temperature, and moisture regimes in a given climate may also be;t be fitted by specific morphological types. Such aspects as erect leaves and profuse root systems need to be more closely evaluated under different cultural conditions.
3. Objective 3. (Ten per cent of total effort). Investigate geno differences and inheritance for mineral nutrient uptake and utili zation efficiencies under mineral stresses and different cultural practices. Also study effects of mineral nutrients on heat, drought, and cold tolerances, other physiological properties, and plant quality and yield.
Improved and expanded crop production will require the continued use of fertilizer nutrients in environmentally stressed areas, disturbed, or marpl-,2. lands. Mineral nutrient scarcities and high costs may limt the amounts used, thus improved plant effi ciency for mineral nutrient utilization becomes important, if not imperative, for continued high crop production. Many environmentally stressed, disturbed, or marginal lands have serious mineral element problems and will require plants that are more adapted to these inherent or imposed stress conditions. New cultural practices will likely alter mineral nutrient availabilities and utilization, thus imposing mineral nutrient problems on plants. Sometimes soils have more than adequate amounts of nutrients present in the soili but these are not available for plant use. Problems of plant nutrition have generally been approached by fertilizer application or soil amendments, or forcing already developed lines into exist ing soil or cultural conditions, to correct or eliminate mineral nutrient problems. These approaches may not succeed or be economically practical in the future. One method to help solve or overcome some of these problems may be to capitalize on the ability of plants to differentially use mineral nutrients and to grow well under adverse or altered mineral conditions. 12
Studies have shown that wide diversities exist in plant genot'pes for mineral nutrient uptake and use. Large differences in tolerances to toxic elements and wide adaptations to problem soils or cultural practices are also known. Taking advantage of these differences and breeding plants with greater efficiency for mineral uptake and use, better ability to use less available sources of nutrients, and greater adaptability to grow under adverse soil conditions or cultural practices have great potential. Mineral nutrients are also known to be associated with or to alter tolerances of plants to physiological properties, quality, and yield. These approaches hold reasonable promise of helping solve mineral nutrition problems as we acquire a better understanding of the bearing of mineral deficiencies or toxicities on essential physiological processes.
4. Objective 4. (Twenty-five percent of total effort). Develop and evaluate breeding techniques, especially recurrent selection pro cedures applied to artificially induced random mating populations. Apply these approaches to increase yield, insect and disease re sJ3tance, grain quality, mineral uptake efficiency, and stress tolerance.
Several original unselected populations are known to yield 85-90% of some good adapted F1 hybrids. Newer, more recently developed populations may exceed this and present relatively favorable take off points for recurrent selection. Two cycles of family selection with NP3R have demonstrated significant yield gains each cycle with an indication that full-sib family testing and S1 progeny testing are slightly more efficient than half-sib family testing. S1 progeny testing and subsequent recombinations have been used successfully to develop greenbug resistant populations and to isolate and concentrate cornborer resistance. Mass selection has made only small gains in increasing grain protein; family schemes should be more successful. Population breeding is particularly advantageous for the DCs in that large amounts of material can be handled with low skilled labor, little hand crossing is required (except for making full-sib families), natural crossing in broad based populations should result in fortuitous genetic recombina tions adapted to any environment, and line breeding can be initiated easily at any stage or cycle of the program.
5. Objective 5. (Ten per cent of total effect). Investigate the influence of pests and pathogens on essential physiological pro cesses in sorghum and attempt to elucidate the plant reaction mechanisms operative in plant resistance and tolerance. 13 are (1) Two of the ways pests and pathogens effect economic losses assimilates by the production of toxins and (2) by draining off ordinarily used to produce grain. Resistant lines to some pests and pathogens are available for use to investigate the plant reaction mechanisms operative in plant resistance and tolerance. Identification of mechanisms and host-pest or -pathogen inter actions may be advantageous for developing screening techniques and/or cultural changes needed to minimize economic loss. and 6. Objective 6. (Ten per cent of total effort). Develop strengthen linkages with developing country agencies, international carry and regional centers, and developed country institutions ing out sorghum improvement programs aimed at DC needs.
TIME PHASED DETAILED WORK PLANS
1. Objective I stress a. Investigate genotype differences in response to water at different stages of development. Greenhouse and growth chamber pot studies indicate sorghum is the most sensitive to damage during about a 2 week period from stigma and stamen differentiation to bloom. Field results are needed where root systems are more normal to supplement greenhousc and chamber results.
(1) 1977. A number of genotypes will be planted inai rain-r out shelter plot where water stress can be controlled.
(2) 1977. Attempt to devise a field screening technique at the Tryon, Nebraska Sandhills Station. Plants will be grown in the sandy soil (essentially hydroponics) and water withheld periodically to screen for drought re- sistance at various developmental stages. The Sand hills station is at an elevation where nights are quite cool. Arrangements for a similar test at a warmer site are being explored for 1978.
(3) 1978. Field selections will be grown hydroponically and stress controlled with polyethylene solutions. Specific studies will be made on the effects on photosynthesis, stomatal response, yield and yield components at different stages of stress.
(4) 1979. Continue study of stage of development where limited irrigation will be most effective. 14
(5) 1977, 78. Determine the degree of water stress which generally stops sorghum coleoptile elongation or growth and attempt _o devise a screening tool to find genotypes capable of growth at high water stress.
(6) 1977. Considerable greenhouse work is in progress on evaluating the status of carbohydrate reserves in sorghum before grain filling and after grain filling commences under optimal and stress conditions. Use common sorghum genotypes to investigate carbohydrate (assimilate) accumulation and movemenc from stalks to other plant parts in normal soil volumes as water is withheld. Relate assimilate movement to root activity studies and grain filling problems mentioned in 4 below.
(7) 1977. Study carbohydrate formation, transformations, and patterns of accumulation in stalks of lodging resistant and susceptible types.
1978. Based on first year's interpretations, continue the study similarly and add substudies as necessary depending on results from 1977.
1979. Continue as in 1978. b. Investigate the effects of both prolonged and short term high temperature stress on photosynthesis, respiration, and sub sequent growth and seed development.
(1) 1977. Short term stress will be imposed in growth chamber and greenhouse experiments. Photosynthesis and respira tion will be measured before and after the stress.
(2) 1978. Effects of longer term stress will be studied by use of rain-out shelters.
(3) 1979. Screen for stability of photosynthesis to stress.
(4) 1977, 1978. Screen for ability for cell elongation (growth) under high temperatures.
(5) 1977. Initial results of a field heat screening test for sensitivity to heat in developing grain warrant further evaluation. Grain appears most sensitive to damage about 7 to 10 days after bloom. Comparisons will be made on sensitivity to damage using the head heat test and the leaf conductivity method. 15
1978. Comparative tests for a second field season are anticipated with a test possibly also being conducted at ICRISAT if 1977 results are encouraging. c. Measure and select for genotypes with high water use efficiency (unit dry matter or grain produced per unit water consumed).
(1) 1977. Develop technique of selection in growth chamber and greenhouse studies.
(2) 1978. Screen large numbers of plants by growth in hydroponic culture.
(3) 1979. Test selections under field conditions. d. Screen genotypes for possible differences in root development. size, length and top:root ratios.
(1) 1977. Refine technique of growing plants in slender cylinders for root observations and measurements.
(2) 1978. Screen and select plants with large root systems.
(3) 1979. Test selections in the field.
(4) 1978. Attempt to see how root volume and bulk relates to root activity at different developmental stages. Green house studies have shown that a large root of one geno type was not necessarily a more active root than a smaller root from another genotype when grain filling began. Different genotypes partition assimilates to roots and expanding panicles differently when stress occurs. In vestigate comparative root function in larger soil volumes and hydroponics using 14C tracer to see if re sults agree with greenhouse pot experiments. These investigations relate closely to 2e above.
(5) 1979. Continue assimilate partitioning experiments and attempt to influence root function with different chemicals especially during grain filling as it relates to iength of the grain filling peiiod and grain yield.
e, Investigate effects of high temperatures on nitrate reductase.
(1) 1977. Make limited measurements on plants at about 3 weeks of age after receiving one heat stress treatment. 16 (2) 1978. Characterize growth habit at prolonged high temperature exposure. Start screening genotypes for stability of nitrate reductase to high temperatures.
(3) Continue screening.
f. Screen populations for high cellular tolerance to heat and desiecation by the electrical conductivity method with leaf discs.
(1) 1977. Partial screening of one or two populations. Screen random selections of a base population random mated in Nebraska and in Arizona to see if heat tolerance is greater in the Arizona population.
1978. Screen selections from 1977. Start screening other populations.
1979. Use selections for making hybrids. Continue test ing and selecting.
(2) 1977. Attempt to correlate the leaf disc conductivity test with the head heat test in 2e.
g. Investigate specific mechanisms for plant hardening to drought and heat stress.
(1), .1977. Measures changes in osmotic potentials or a possible hardening mechanism when exposed to stress.
(2) 1978. Investigate changes in lipids associated with stress conditions.
(3) 1979. Continue studies based on information obtained ., FYs 1977 and 78.
.h. Evaluate temperature influence on biological efficiency and water use efficiency.
(1) 1978, 79. Placing the right genotype in the right temper ature environment appears critical based on growth room experiments. About a 25 per cent yield loss results from elevating night temperature 50C above optimal for temperate and cool tolerant genotypes. A 100C rise reduces yield 50 per cent or more. Test the effect of elevated temper atures on yield of tropical genotypes suitable for low altitude subtropical areas. Controlled environment facilities under construction will be used for this work. 17 (as for, (2) 1977, 1978, 1979. (a) Cool temperature selections have, high altitudes in Ethiopia, etc.) have been shown to about 25 per cent faster metabolic screening techniques by using the same latitude but different altitudes,
(b) Continue testing a combination field-laboratory germiha tion early growth test to evaluate cool tolerance.
(c) Heat test cool tolerant materials available since the high altitude cool tropical areas frequently have hot. days.
(d) Characterize metabolic peculiarities of existing cool, temperature materials to try to determine mechanisms, responsible for cool tolerance. This may help devise better screening procedures for use at ICRISAT, other. international centers and in DCs.
(e) Exchange cool tolerant germplasm with interested parties in cooperating institutions. on (3) 1978, 1979. Determine the influence of temperature water use efficiency. Two factors are involved. First, elevated temperatures cause greater transpiration losses which will be quantified by using environmental control'7 facilities being constructed under the current contract. Second, biological efficiency decreases beyond a certaiT optimal temperature level pe' iliar to the adaptation of. the genotype. The twofold effects of temperature on water use efficiency will be quantified in order to an determine (a) how critical appropriate adaptation is. for area (i.e., what kinds of gains can be expected from proper adaptation) and (b) what the range of reaction among genotypes might be in order to make a reasonable: guess on whether or not differences can be manipulated" genetically to advantage. inter i. Initiate both field and laboratory heat x.water stress action studies all 3 years as facility construction permit#;.
2. Objective 2
a. Compare mitLimum till bedding with normal surfaceyplanting' utilizing corn and sorghum for comparative purposes.-
1977. Complete a 3 year sorghum test and the secondyearof a corn test. 18
1978. Complete the third year of a corn test and summarize all data for publication. b. Study normal and minimal tillage alternatives coupled with different planting methods under dryland conditions.
1977. Continue yield comparisons of several minimum till operations with normal surface cultivation and planting.
1978. Partially monitor water status in addition to yield in selected treatments.
1979. Continue 1978 and 1979 experiments, summarize, and interpret data. c. Compare sorghum yields in a grain legume (soybean) rotation to conventionally fertilized sorghum with respect to nitrogen utilization.
1977. Continue the third cycle of a five-year study to deter mine and compare soil moisture and nitrogen status along with grain yield.
1978. If yield and nitrogen utilization results in the soybean sorghum rotation appear favorable, trials with other grain legumes should be initiated in selected DCs.
1979. Continue and terminate the experiment. Interpret and publish the results. d. Determine the influence of erect and normal leaf type sorghums in different stand geometries on light interception and grain yield. Results thus far indicate a linear relationship between photosynthetically active radiation and grain yield. 1977. Conclude an investigation using erect leaf hybrids in different row spacings and spacings within rows.
Objective 3 a. Evaluate and screen sorghum lines and populations for differential responses to mineral elements and Al tolerance in soils and nutrient solutions.
1977. Continue screening and refining screening methods for differential responses to P and Fe by growing plants on problem soils low in P and Fe. 19
Initiate screening of sorghum for differential responses to Zn and Mg in low Zn and Mg soils.
1978. Initiate screening sorghum for differential Al tolerance in -ucrient solutions (bulk tanks).
Initiate screening sorghum for P and Fe in nutrient solutions (bulk tanks) and compare soil results in order to evaluate methods and to accelerate and improve methods for screening for mineral nutrient efficiency. (This methodology can and will be used for testing differential responses of plants to any element.)
1979. Continue to screen lines and improve on screening methods.
b. Investigate the inheritance of mineral nutrient utilization and evaluate these traits when incorporated into hybrids.
1977. Screen lines for mineral efficiency as given in Objective 1 and make some crosses of plants that show differences in P' and Fe.
1975. Make crosses of plants showing differential responses to minerals and test Sl'S made previously.
1979. Continue making crosses and testing for the inheritance of mine..al nutrient utilization traits. Test some lines on' soils known to have mineral problems.
c. Investigate mineral element relationships and differential re sponses of genutypes to heat, drought, and cold tolerances, grain protein, yield, and certain physiological and quality factors. a to relate "mineral use" 1977. Continue field studies especially N, P, and K) by sorghum genotypes showing different grain protein contents.
Initiate greenhouse studies on "mineral use" by sorghum genotypes showing differential heat and drought tolerance.
1978. Initiate more detailed studies on relationships of mineial nutrients and their distribution in several sorghum lines showing wide variations in grain protein. a The term "mineral use" means mineral nutrient uptake, distribution, accu mulation, and utilization and in some cases metabolism. 20
Continue "mineral use" studies with sorghum showing differential heat and drought tolerance.
Initiate growth room studies on "mineral use" by sorghum genotypes showing differential cold tolerance.
1979. Continue detailcd studies on significant findings of mineral nutrient relationships for lines showing variations in grain protein.
Continue studies on "mineral use" by sorghum showing differential heat, drought and cold tolerance and initiate studies on the effects of heat, drought, and cold stress on "mineral use" by sorghum lines.
Initiate studies on effects of minerals and their use on re spiration, photosynthesis, and other physiological processes and on certain quality factors. d. Evaluate sorghum genotypes for "mineral use" when grown under different cultural practices.
1977. Continue field studies on "mineral use" of sorghum grown under different mulch densities.
1978. Follow up on significant findings of mulch density effects on "mineral use".
Initiate studies on effects of different tillage systems, plant ing dates, and maturity date on "mineral use".
1979. Continue studies on tillage and agronomic practices effects on "mineral use".
Follow up on any significant findings from mulching, tillage, and other practices on "mineral use".
e. Evaluate sorghum genotypes for root growth in hydroponics and study relationships of "mineral use" in roots and various top parts.
1977. Continue greenhouse studies of sorghum in hydroponicson "mineral use" by and mineral element effects on root, leaf, stalk, panicle, and grain growth and yield.
1978. Follow up on significant findings of mineral effects on roots and top parts and relationships of minerals to the growth processes of sorghum. 21
Initiate studies on the effects of temperature and osmotic con centrations (drought stress) on roots and top part growth and yield.
1979. Continue studies on the effects of mineral elements on roots and top part growth and yield and relate these effects to other physiological processes (respiration, photosynthesis, translocation, and distribution of metabolites).
4. Objective 4
a. Yield test base populations.
1977. Test populations NP1BR through NP18B for yield potential. 1978. Test improved populations of interest with certain older populations as checks.
1979. Same as 1978; add new populations.
b. Continue recurrent family selection study.
1977. Select third cycle Sl's in NP3R and NP5R and make up third cycle half-sib and full-sib families in NP3R.
1978. Conduct third cycle family yield trials.
1979. Same as 1978 or recombine selections for fourth cycle.
c. Evaluate families from NP3R brown unselected under dryland and irrigation for 5 years.
1977. Select 31's from both subpopulations.
1978. Yield test Sl families.
1979. Repeat yield test or recombine selected Sl's from each subpopulation.
d. Develop new high protein populations carrying ms.
1977. Select thi.rd cycle Sl's from NP7BR and first cycle Sl's from NP17R and NPI8B.
1978. Yield test and measure protein in S1 families.
1979. Composite and random mate selected families. 22
e. Continue development of drought resistant population.
1977. Make third cycle selections c-om NP9BR in Arizona under limited water conditions.
1978. Recombine selected Sl'S in Nebraska.
1979. Increase and release.
f. Continue development of high quality yellow endosperm populations.
1977. Screen Sl'S from NP12B and NP13R in Kansas for MDMV.
1978. Recombine selected Sl's.
1979. Increase and release.
g. Develop new high quality greenbug resistant populations.
1977. Cross NP12B x NP14B and NP13R x NPI5R.
1978. Random mate and screen for greenbug resistance and grain quality.
1979. Recombine selected families. h. Cortinue development of corn borer resistant population.
1977. Recombine resistant Sl's from second cycle screen ing of NP11BR in Iowa.
1978. Select new Sl'S.
1979. Screen third cycle material in Iowa.
i. Develop population with multiple insect resistance.
1977. Screen nontesta greenbug resistant Sl's from NP14B in Iowa for corn borers.
1978. Recombine selected Sl's.
1979. Selected new Sl'S resistant to both insects. 23
j. Evaluate population bred for cold tolerance.
1977. Select Sl's from NP16BR.
1978. Screen in laboratory and field.
1979. Recombine selected Sl's.
k. Develop populations with improved mineral efficiency (e.g., P).
1977. Perfect techniques for screening large numbers of families.
1978. Screen Sl progenies from greenbug resistant and/or yellow endosperm populations for mineral efficiency.
1979. Recombine selected families.
5. Objective 5
a. Greenbug investigations. ftudies urcer way have given some information on content of honeydew produced by greenbug in fested plants. Studies involve biological reactions in sorghum to extracts from both honeydew and greenbugs. It is desirable to discover the mechanisms of resistance since greenbug biotype changes will in time undoubtedly render current resistance sources unuseable.
1977. Conduct experiments to crudely estimate the amount of assimilate drain caused by greenbug infections. Such an estimate may be useful in determiLing whether assimi late drain is likely to account for some portion of green bug damage or whether a toxin may be the primary problem.
1977. Continue the study of various sorghum biological reactions to greenbug and honeydew extract compounds which may be toxins.
1978. Continue mrachanism of resistance and/or tolerance research based on 1977 investigation results.
b. Develop simple, rapid, and reliable methods for selecting disease resistant genotypes by using toxic metabolites produced by fungal and bacterial pathogens. 24
1977. Screen sorghum pathogens for those which in culture -synthesize toxic metabolites that reproduce a portion or the complete disease symptoms. (Present evidence indicates that such toxinis are produced by Periconia circinata (root/crown rot), Helminthosporium turcicum (leaf blight), Fusarium moniliforme (root/stalk rot), and Pseudomonas syna (bacterial leaf spot).)
1978. Develop effective procedures for obtaining relatively purified toxin preparations and for bioassaying the toxins.
1979. Continue developing toxin preparation procedures and hopefully screen a large number of standard genotyies P well as experimental material for their response to toxin and correlate with their disease reaction in the greenhouse and field, and select potential sources of resistance.
c. Determine the critical physiological and biochemical effects of environmental stresses that predispose sorghum to diseases and the consequential effects on activation and growt. of fungal pathogens.
1977. Investigate the ability of soil borne pathogens (e.g. Fusarium moniliforme and Macrophomina phaseoli) to survive and grow under a wide range of water potentials and tempera tures as these conditions relate to stalk rot and charcoal rot.
1978, 1979. Examine leaf and stalk tissue of heat and drought stressed plants for accumulation of amino acids (e.g. proline) and for evolution of ethylene; determine the effect of these responses on germination of spores and sclerotia and on growth rate of the fungal pathogens. d. Determine the qualitative and quantitative effects of foliar, root, and stalk diseases on physiological efficiency of the developing sorghum plant.
1977. Measure the effect of foliar diseases on stomatal response of, and CO2 fixation by, diseased tissue.
1978. Measure the effect of root rots on foliar stomatal response and translocation rates in diseased plants.
1979. Relate the magnitude of these effects to the amount of disease and consequential effect on dry matter accumulation and grain yield. 25
e. Screen random mated populations for disease reaction and attempt to detect and define the drift in patterns of resistance/susceptibility to pathogens.
1977, 78. Inoculate random mated populations under controlled conditions in the greenhouse with sorghum pathogens (e.g. Sphacelotheca reiliana, races 1 and 3 (head smut), H. turcicum (leaf blight), Gloeocercospora sorghi (Zonate leaf spot), Ramulispora sorghi (sooty stripe), etc) and record frequency and intensity of disease within the populations as their development progresses.
1979. Continue the above approach and establish the effect of the random mating process on the change in disease re sistance and susceptibility.
I. GENERAL APPRAISAL
This project is rated by TA/AGR as being of high priority, and its extension for three years has been included in TA budget plans and congressional. presentations. The present prop sal is sound in design and the cost estimates are appropriate to the proposed level of effort.
The ongoing project was reviewed by a team from AIDIW and three lead ing sorghum research specialists from the commercial industry in 8eptember 1975. Also present were two leading sorghum experts from international centers. In the review, it was concluded that the University of Nebraska was the world leader in research on sorghum physiology, and the experts from the international centers made parti cularly strong positive statements regarding the importance of the Nebraska research to their development programs aimed directly at DC problems.
The strength of the Nebraska program was further emphasized in 1976 when the Nebraska legislature voted, and the Regents of the University accepted, a special budgetary supplement for support of the recognized "Center of Excellence" in sorghum physiology, led by the Principal Investigator of the AID funded project. This financial support insures the continuation and expansion of the basic research prograa, to which the AID funded project is joined for support of research directed toward sorghum improvement tir the developing countries.
Progress during the present contract, to date, has been excellent, and it is anticipated that all contract objectives will have been met at tie conclusion of the alloted time. The extension will permit further development of basic research in stress physiology and the control of yield, and should provide a sound basis for aplying the information obtained to practical plant breeding programs with a focus on the needs of sorghum growing DCs. 26
J. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS
No adverse environmental problems are ;inticjpdted from the proposed renewal of this research project, nor :rem the adoption of the improved germplasir and cultural practices. ThL main thrust of this project is the elucidation and application of physiological principles to the improvement of sorghum for DCs.
This activity is not deemed a Major Federal Action (Section 1500.6, CEQ Guide.line) because thf project will have no significant effects which adversely affect such aspects of the human environment as air, water, land, flora, fauna, or socioeconomic condition,
The Threshold Decision is negative, constituting a Negative Determination, because project activities are restricted to controlled experimentation exclusively for the purpose of research, and as such the project is confined to small areas which are carefully monitored. K. CONTRACT BUDGET AND LIFE-OF-PROJECT COST ESTIMATES TOTAL LIFE OF FY 77 FY 78 FY 79 PROJECT COSTS WM _ _NPUTS W/M $ $ $
1. Salaries 232* 61,000 254 84,000 90,000 235,000 2. Fringe Benefits 62 2,800 84 3,uOO 3,500 9,300 3. Indirect Costs (64.3%) 62 39,200 84 54,000 57,500 150,700 4. International Travel 7,000 8,000 8,000 23,000 5. Domestic Travel 1,000 1,000 1,000 3,000 6. Equipment 29,000 10,000 - 39,000 7. Materials and Supplies 26,000 25,000 25,000 70,000 8. OtheL Direct Costs** 20,000 23,000 23,000 66,000 9. Publications 2,000 3,000 3,000 8,000
Totals by Inputs $182,000 $211,000 $211,000 $604,000
OUTPUIS
1. Stress Physiology Studies o3, 7 0 0 73,850 73.850 211,400 2. Production Practices 18,200 21,100 21,100 60,400 3. Mineral Nutrient Studies 18,200 21,100 21,100 60,400 4. Breeding Techniques and Studies 45,500 52,750 52,750 151,000 5. Pest and Pathogen Reaction Studies 18,200 21,100 21,100 60,400 6. Linkages and Utilization 18,200 21,100 21,100 60,400
Totals by Outputs $182,000 $211,000 $211,000 $604,000
* Includes 98 W/M professional and 72W/M subprofessional and clerical noncontract funded ** Include winter nursery costs aSo 1025-, 5.12 PROJECT CESIGN SUMMARY Life of Prou-tI LOGICAL FRAMEWORK FromFY 77 to,Fy -- Totl US. Funding Date epr: 6/1176 PoctTtte& Nu be: Physiology of Yield and Stress Reaction
NARRATIVE SUMMARY OBJECTIVELY VERIFIABLE INDICATORS MEANS OF VERIFICATION IVPORTANT ASSUMPTIONS rogram orSecor Goal: The broader objective to Me.suras of Goal Achievement: Axsumptif m for achieving goal targe which this project ontibtrts: To increase quantity and nutritional 1. Significant increase in per 1. Official production and population 1. DCs will actively attempt to value of food crops in develnping capita production of major food statistics (FAO. Foreign Agri- expand fcod crop production. countries. crops in DCs, cultural Service estimates). 2. Nutritional quality can be 2. Improvement in nutritional quality 2. Nutritional quality surveys in DCs. improved without major con-. of major DC food crops. straints on yield.
Project Purpose: Conditions that will indicate purpose has been Assumptions for v sing purpose scheved: EMd of project status. To make available to -DCs high yielding, . New, superior varieties available 1. Publication and reports of LDC 1. Solutions can be found to nutritious varieties of sorghum with to farmers in DCs. governmental agencies; on-site in- major constraints. multiple resistance to moisture and 2. Research and development activities spections of seed supply. 2. Agriculture extension service temperature stresseN. diseases and in sorghum effectively assumed by 2. On-site inspection and review by are able and willing to pro ir.aects, together with improved practices DC agencies and international . AID/W personnel and consultants. mote proven practices. for their cultivation, institutions and linked by com- 3. DC research institutions de munications network. velop adequate capabilities.
Outputs. Magnitude of Outputs: Asumptions for ehieving outputs: 1. Determination of the nature of stress 1. Not quantifiable. 1. Reports by contractor. 1. Research is successful. tolerance and avoidance, and other 2. At least 2 populations per agro- 2. Reports by contractor, communications 2. Research is successful and physiological traits useful in plant climatic region, and reports from Missions, inter- DCs are interested In breeding. 3. Linkages with 2 international national centers, and DC institutions material. 2. Development of breeding pcpulation centers and at least 10 DC 3. Contractor reports, com=uicLtieou 3. Cooperation by international useful for DCs. institutions. from DC.institutions and inter- centers and DC Jnstitutions. 3. Establishnunt of effective linkages national centers. with Internation and DC agencies.
Inns: !mplementatir-s Target (Type and Ouantity) Asumptions forproviding inpum l.AID/W provdr:.: financial support and , AID/W funding at approximately 1. AID/W records. 1. AID/W funding will be avail project Juldance. $200,O00/year. 2. Contractor reports, on-site in- able on schedule and in 2. Contractor provides qualified per- 2. 230-250 worker/months/year tech- spections. quantity agreed upon. sonnel ind backstopping facilities. nical personnel; adequate labors- 3. USAID reports, on-site verification. 2. Contractor will have 3. Participating personnel and coopers- tory facilities; 5 or more ac:.es necessary qualified personner tion provided by 1) DCs, 2) USAIDs, field research area. university facilities will be and 3) international organizations. * Not directly quantifiable, available to project. 3. International organizations, USAIDs, and l ill have personnel anWources to support.tbis ativity. Informal ',inutes of the Research and Development Committee Meeting August 3, 1976
Chairman: Dr. Erven Long, AA/TA
Project: 1. Development of Improved Sorghum - University of Nebraska, Research (RDA #2)
2. Improvement of Grain Sorghum for Developing Countries - Texas A&M, Research (RDA #2)
Discussion Highlights
Since the two proposals for extension of research activities are was related to the same grain, they were discussed simultaneously. It pointed out that research work being conducted at the University of Nebraska on the physiology of sorghum and at Texas A&M on diseases at affecting sorghum complement research efforts on the grain being made [CRISAT in India. This Center has international responsibility to provide in linkages between national and international institutions involved sorghum research. funds Question: Why doesn't A.I.D. provide the center with necessary plays such to contract with national research institutions if ICRISAT of an important role in sorghum research? This would relieve A.I.D. management responsibilities.
which it This suggestion was discussed at the recent Centers Week at was sensed that although the centers want to establish close linkages would with the various developed-country research institutions, they grants prefer not to accept the responsibility for administering A.I.D. to such institutions. The same concept has been tabled by the Committee on Title XII.
Thn participants requested that the Project Statement on both projects be revised to include a statement which will clearly set forth the relationship between ICRISAT and the two universities. MOTION: That the projects be approved for the period and amounts stated.
VOTE: Unanimously approved.
RESEARCH PROJECT STATEMENT
Project Justification and Potential Utilization
I. SUMMARY
Title: Poor Rural Households, Technical Change and Income Distribution in LDCs.
Time Period: April 1, 1976 through June 30, 1979.
Estimated Total Cost: $838,000 for three subprojects for three years.
By fiscal years the obligations would be as follows: FY 1976 $758,000 (for two years); FY 1.979 $80,000 for one year. Total $838,000.
Principal Investigators: Cornell University -- Leader, Daniel G. Sisler; Chandra G. Ranade.
Michigan State University -- Leader, Carl Eicher; Derek Byerlee, Dunstan Spencer and Carl Liedholm
Purdue University -- Leader, G. Edward Schuh; George F. Patrick.
Project Manager: Lee-R. Martin, TA/AGR/ESP
NARRATIVE SUMMARY
Introduction. This set of integrated research proposals is designed to add to our understanding of the rural development process as it takes place in the LDCs. Collectively these research projects are focused on the effects that rural development has upon the welfare of the rural poor, working through its effects upon output, employment, income and income distribution. As rural development proceeds, these effects would be generated through the media of technical change, labor markets, other input and output markets, migration, agricultural and other economic development policies and programs, and local institutions. The economic, social and political processes initiated by the efforts to increase output and income, particularly of the rural poor, will bring about changes in the behavior of the poor rural households, and these changes in household behavior will be examined carefully, in order to understand better their implications for the welfare of the rural poor. The role of the intersectoral labor market and of migration as a link between the farm and nonfarm sectors will be examined carefully, particularly in their influence on the adoption of new production technology and on th' distribution of benefits from technical change and other kinds of rural development programs. Another primary purpose will be to develop and test methodologies for measuring the effects of rural development and other economic development policies and programs upon the rural poor. -2-
The Economics and Sector Planning Division is prepared to allocate the professional monitoring resources necessary to insure uniformity of analytical procedures and the coinparability of the findings from the three projects. The Division will require a joint techni.cal report to Le prepared by tile three sul-proj0eCt leaders, and a much briefer condensation to )e make wide]y available in the LDCs, in A.T.D. Missions and Bureaus, and in ot:her donior agencies. Coordination will be achieved through regular meetings of the principal investigators, the Project Manager, selected consul tints, and a few other investigators working on similar research problems but not otherwise supported by A.I.1).
Dis-cus-sion_ f .the- rYail_ Research. The central probl em of agricul tural and rural. development is to increaso agricultural out put etf ic iently while insuring that the benefits .are0 di;trihult d mor, evenly among produclig and consuming house holds. Almost without ,_xception, increases in agricUlturaIl output whether from the introduct ion of )i ochei ca1 techinolo y, (the Gr.en 1Revel Iut ion) or from add itions to the st(ck o1ot inIts , I-' apcillv land and water resources, seem to have had a tendency to make, ill(com11 distribut ion amnong rural households lore unequal. Numerou.s exampl-s cn be found of th, devel o poem t and introduction of improved agriculturali techniques, hl)t Lhse h:ave not always been adopted by low--income farmers for reasons net fu IIy understood, More often tihan not, the direct and .indirect effects ()f tie techno)lo'gy on target populations appear not to have been as heneficil as was antic ipalt ed. There, are strong em ipirical indications that increased agricultural output achieved either by technologicalI change or by increasing tile supply of fixed inputs (land and water, e. g.) has been associa ted in many LDCs with a decline in the economic welfar( of small. scaie farmers and other rural households, :including those of landless laborers. Much of this evidence relates to too short a time period to be certain we are observing the results that are relevant to welfare judgments -- the situati0r after adjustment to changes have had a chance to work themselvv,.sti.ough the rural. conomy. Einough time has elaps ed since tile introduction of technological change into the crop sectors of many LDCs that valid judgments should .!ow be possible n the effects of these important sources of output growth. One of the overall goals of this set of studies is to identify, assemble, and analy;ze sonme of the a i lahile bodies of comparabl.e data that are relevant to these issues. The ultima-e level of benefits front any elements of rural development policy or program will be strongly influenced by the reactions of poor rural households to those elements -- be they technical change, greater provision of *ublic services to rural- Iousehelds, institutional developments, revised trade or taxation policies, and so on. Collectively these three subnrojects will attempt seriously to learn a good deal more about household behavior under conditions of economic and soc ial. change. The principal countries where the process of change in rural areas will be studied are India, Indonesia anJ the Philippines in Asia; Brazil in Latin America; and Sierra Leone in Africa. Less intensive and extensive examinations of some aspects of these problems will be made Iron data originating in Mexico, Ethiopia, and Ghana. The countries selected will offer a considerable range of variation in ecological environments, institutional environments, and stage of the development. process. This series of studies will util ize several. unique and coniparable data sets already available or in process. One of the two Indian sub-projects will be based on original data collected in an Andhra Pradesh village; the Indonelan sub-project will utilize data obtained through the Indonesian Agro-Economic -3-
Survey. One of the two Philippine projects will analyze field and plot data from the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). Periodic data are available over a 15-month period for 500 rural households in Sierra Leone, over a cropping season for 1.70 ,:Ice farming households in Ghana. Data over time are also ovailable for 120 rural households in Ethiopia. Data for two or three agrictilttiral years are available for 608 poor rur:i l households from three Brazilian regions -- 190 households of suall owners, 173 sharecroppers, 120 permanent farm workers, and 125 temporary workers. These voluminous w.'crodata will be analyzed together with secondary macroeconomic data on land use, farm size, prices, earnings and employment, and migration.
I. RESEARCH PURPOSE AND EXPECTED PRODUCTS.
A. Purpose. To provide LDCs, AID and other donor agencies with a better understanding of the effects on the welfare of the rural poor that the following factors have. I. Technical change 2. Agrarian stCuctures 3. Availability of public services 4. Effectiveness of the labor markets 5. Constraints on the adoption of new technology 6. Trade, taxajtion and other development policies A catalytic force in the ultimate effects different policies and programs have upon the rural poor is the behavior of households confronted with economic and social change. Much attention will be directed toward learning more about the characteristics of hous..hold behavior. These results will be used in the design of models to measure the effects of the factors listed above on the rural poor.
B. Expected Research Objectives.
1. To compare and contrast production systems, use of time, participation in labor markets, and family income under different ecological and institutional environments and at di fferent stages of development iii selected African, Asian and Latin American countries. 2. To analyze sources of income and differences in income of poor rural households, including landown rs, tenants and landless workers. 3. To analyze the rura' labor market with respect to demand/supply behavior, efficiency of the labor marl,2t, and migration. 4. To analyze the bar iers to the increased participation of landlcss workers in the dcvelopment process. 5. To analyze the constraints to the adoption of new production technology. 6. To develop and test models to measure the impact of technical change on output, income and employment of poor rural households. 7. To develop and test policy models for analysis of aggregate impacts of trade, taxation, and domestic agricultural policies. 8. To identify policy and institutional changes to increase the participation of the rural poor in, and their benefits from, the development process. -4-
C. Table of Content
Pernaps a preliminary table of contents for the over-all technical report will help to illustrate the purposes and expected products of the research project
Tentative Table of Contents for Over-all Technical Report
I. Introduction
[I. Background on the Countries and Study Regions
Ill. Production bystems, Use of Time, Participation in the Labor Market, and Family Incomes--Description and Summary of the Data Sets
IV. Sources of Income and Explanation of Differences in Per Capita Incomes
V. Impact of rechnical Change on Output, Incomes and Employment; Constraints on Adoption of Technical Change by Poor Rural Households
VI. Analysis of Rural Laoor Markets
1. Supply/Demand
2. Efficiency of Rural Labor Markets
3. Migration
4. Labor Constraints on Adoption of New Technology
5. Constraints on Participation of Household Members in Nonfarm Economic Activities
6. Roles of Small-Scale industry and Fishing in Rural Labor Markets
VII. Impacts of Trade Policy, Income and Lana Taxes, and Other Elements of Domestic Agricultural Policy on the Welfare of Poor Rural Households VIII. Direct vs. Indirect Benefits and Costs ot Technical Change and Other Rural Development Policies, with Special Reference to Effects on Nutrition, Labor Productivity and Rural Welfare, Including General Equilibrium ettects
IX. Particular tffects on Landless Workers -- Sharecroppers, Permanent and Casual Workers
X. Summary, Conclusions ant' Suggestions for Future Research -5-
III. SIGNIFICANCE AND RATIONALE OF THE RESEARCH
A. Problems and Importance to AID Goals, StrateGes, and Policies.
Throughout the late 1960's and early 1970's, AID's strategy for rural development was based almost entirely upon the development and extension of new agricultural technologies, and upon -nvestments in land and water resources, in marketing capacity, and in productien capacity for new inputs. It was assumed that additional production would improve the well-being of all the people with lower-priced, more abundant food, and the welfare of rural farm families through additional farm income. Even when these countries realized both their product ion expectations and higher average farm incomes, they dis covered that the income distribution had become more unequal, with the welfare of small landowners, tenants and landles s laborers having deteriorated. The fundamental goal of greater agricultural production by whatever means is being carefully re-examined inside AID, in the light of the Congressional Mandate to focus attention more on the rural poor. Although the Agency's priorities have clearly been directed much more toward the poor, it must continue to regard increases in agricultural output as one of the primary mechanisms for reachin, its twin goals -- efficiency and equity. The welfare of the rural poor will continue to be a function largely of the income they earn from, agricultural production. The situation calls for more attention to the divi-ion of the gains from additional agricultural production, and to the distribution of productive resources, particularly land and water, among farmers and landlords. Off-farm employment needs to receive more attention as a means of supplementing farm income. This project will provide important and useful new information by detailing, in a number of developing countries, what happens during the process of agri cultural growth, particularly to poor rural households. The income and employment effects of economic growth in the rural sector will be analyzed, and the economic, social and political structures through which these effects make themselves felt will be examined. The interaction of rural households with all the different growth generators will receive particular attention, as little is known of rural household behavior in the developing countries. Models will be developed and tested for examining the effects that public policies and programs have upon the welfare of the rural poor, as well as upon output from the rural sector. These effects will be differentiated among the rural- poor that are small landowners, tenants, and landless workers. An important link in the interaction between ecoinomic change and rural household is the rural labor market, and the efficiency with which it functions will be studied, along with the role that migration plays in this intermediation. Coming in for specific analysis will be the barriers that exist in the different situations to the increased participation of the rural poor, especially the landless households, in the development process. The environment within which the poor rural households make decisions will be studied to ascertain the constraints that limit the adoption of new production technology. Finally, all the research goals listed above will be drawn into f,.,us by means of a relevant conceptual framework and addressed to the paramount question, what policy, program and institutional changes can be designo , and introduced in order to increase the participation of the rural. poor in the rural development process, and to increase their benefits from participation in that processi 6-
Although this series of research studies is not focused directly upon the effectiveness of LDC agricultural institutions as such, it will provide a good part of the conceptual framework, the quantitative underpinning, and a good deal of the information necessary for analyses of agricultural institutions, particularly their effects on equity and efficiency in the rural sector. Correlating analyses of the different institutions in a particular LDC with the results of this project would provide a good deal oFi information on estimating priorities for different institution building or institution transformation effects. This project would develop information that would be essential in deducing the optimal role for particular institutions to play. It would be complemen. tary to carry out institutional analyses in a given country simultaneously with (or just following) the research described here. The problems to which this research is address ed are relevant to all of the developing countries that nave _he goa ls of increasing agricultural output and improving the welfare of tle rural poor. This applies to countries already well embarked on the path of agricultural. growthI whether through canges in tcchnology or input availability, and those still facing the necessity to achieve self sustaining growth. The problems under study are to some extent site-specific because each countrv h~as different resource endowments, economic and social structures, and culcural values, but research findings in some countries will suggest useful hypotheses in others. Moreover, the data collection techniques, the conceptual frameworks, and the methodologies can often be used in sector analyses of other countries. It is likely that results obtained in one country can be "adapted" for use in the development planning of another country that is culturally akin and at a similar stage of agricultural development. This is particularly Ie case because each one of the individual studies making up this research will specify carefully the ecological environment, the institutional environment, the cultural environment, and the stage of rural development to which each study applies. As they become available, the results of these studies will be very useful to the Agency in carrying out its "expanded program of economic anaLysis for agricultural and rural sector planning," designed to improve the performance and contribution of the agricultural and rural sectors of LDCs in achieving their overall economic and social development objectives. Since one of the highest priority objectives is higher incomes and less income inequality, these studies wii.l generate conceptual frameworks, analytical methods, and relevant data for agriculture sector analyses. The selection of countries for detailed study was based almost entirely on the joint availability of relciant data and of competent economists with interest and research experience in the particular country. Brazil and Mexico have sustained favorabie growth rates in agriculture for a decade or longer, have good information bases for the study of agricultural growth, and have undergone excellent, recent, empirical studies of their agricultural economy. Further study of these "success stories" in agriculture will provide insight and conclusions with some degree of validity for other LDCs. More importantly, the research will provide testable hypotheses for other LDCh, as wel I as tested conceptual frameworks, data collection methods, and analytical techniques. Tlhe research will provide good illustrations of the information base that must be in place before analyses of this sort can be attempted successfully. Finally, it will also produce findings of great value and relevance to Brazii and Mexico countries that have reached the transition zone between deve lopinp and developed, as far as agriculture is concerned. -7-
Even with their noteworthy achievements in achieving large increases in agricultural output, both Brazil and Mexico have large numbers of poor rural houseiiolds and have experienced great difficulty in extending the benefits of this growth in agricultural output to all the rural households. Analyses of India, Indonesia and the Philippines will focus on countries that have also recently experienced technological change in agriculture; but are not as advancea in their present state of development as Mexico and Brazil. ihe information bases are adequate for the analyses proposed. The results are likely to be of consideruate relevance to other LI)Cs, particularly those with a monsoon agriculture as in Southeast Asia. Like the studies of the Latin American countries, these analyses will make considerable methodological contrivutions, in dLveloping and testing conceDtual frameworks, data handling methods, and analytical tecr-niqu-s. Likewise the studies in Sierra Leone, Ghana and Ethiopia wil present evidence from countries with different characteristics. In these countries, particularly Sierra Leone and Ghana, food is imported and agriculture is experiencing low growth rates. Considerable 'fforts are being made to introduce technological chan{e in agriculture but with mixed success. In these areas too land-man ratios are high compared to other areas of the world. In Sierra Leone the agricultural sector has been growing, quite slowly so that the staple food, rice, has had to be imported in substantial quantities. In general most farming is based on traditional techniques although mechanical cultivation has expanded rapidly in recent years and major projects have been established to distrioute new rice seed and fertilizrr. Export cropv are important sources of income in some areas. Land tenure is generalty of a communal nature with control vested in local authorities. because of this system and because of the high land-man raLto there is no class of landlords, tenants or landless workers. Almost all agricultural production including tree crops for export is based on small-holder, family-operated farms. -8-
Finally, each of these eight countries ha. agricultural regions that have undergone rapid growth in agricultural output, others where little change in productivity has taken place. These "by-passed" regions constitute economic problems of great magnitude, because the agriculture is largely subsistence, generating the low incomes associated vih subsistence agriculture. In particular, the Brazil study is focused oa these unaffected (or adversely aftected) regions.
B. State-of-the-Arts
Tnis project may well require the development of new research methodoloty for one or more ot the basic problems to be considered. One of these would be analysis of tle economic behavior of small farm households--with respect to use ot time, savinis and physical investment (both in money and in kind), human resource investments, labor force rarticipation, fertility, risk aversion, and h1ousehold consu,,iptiun. Another would be better empirical tracking effects of agricultural of the development upon fertility, human capital formation, labor force participation, and so on. This would build upon the work of F'. W. Schultz, Read, Becker, Paul Schultz, Mincer, Finis Welch, Mellor, Schuh and others. Anotner area were researcoi innovations may be needed is b'trter empirical tiacking of the effects technological change and other sources of agricultural growth have on income, employment and income distribution of the rural poor. This can be built on the work of flayami and Ruttan, Mellor, Binswanger, Sidhu, 8isaliah, ano others. IThe final point at which research innovation may be required is in examining thr efficiency and equity effects of alternative program and policy elements that may be feasi le in the particular context. Out of this final exercise would come tle results that cculd -- with some adaption for particular ecological, economic, political, cultural and institutional environmeits-- become inputs into the agricultural development planning processes of a great many developing countries. 'tis researcih will build upon the knowledge generated in many other research project3, some of which are recent%or current TAB-funded projects: I. Capital Formation and Tecinological Change, Ohio State University 2. Employment Generation in Tropical Africa, Michigan State University In addition, a thiru TA-funded contract, "Analysis of Direct and Indirect Effects of Technological Change in Agriculture," Cornell University, will be amalgamate into this project. Tne old Cornell Contract No. AID/ta-c will no longer 1131 continue, having served its purpose as a catalist. -9-
These studies will make use of and build on the results and/or data of research studies now under way or completed. These include the following:
1. The research on Indian agricultural development by Abel and Easter, Evenson, Sidhu, Bisaliah, Mellor and his associates, and many others will provide an excel' it take-off point for the Indian sub-projects. 2. The work nderway in the Philippines by Antiporta and Abel, Mellor and his Cornell associates, by Evenson and his associates at IRRI and UP-Los Banos, and many others provide a good starting point for the analysis of Philippine agriculture growth and its effects on income and employment. 3. The work by llertford in Mexico on the sources of agricultural growth to 1965 and work under way at Chapingo provide the information base for measuring growth sources and associating them with income and employment effects on the one hand, and with national price and other agricultural policies on the other. 4. The wor!, in Brazil of Sclhuh and his many associates has focused directly on low-income farm households 'n selected regions, and provides an excellent background for understanding h asehold and farm decisions. This information would make it possible to test analytically the feasibility and effectiveness of specific proposals to jocrease output and improve income distribution in low-income farm areas. 5. The work in Central and West Africa by Carl Eicher and i£i2 colleagues, Derek Byerlee, Dunstan Spencer, D. 14. Norman, Francis Idachaha and others of the Africa Rural Employment Research Network have worked extensively on rural employment problems, much of it concerned with the economic behavior of rural households.
IV. PLANS TO COORDINATE AND LINK RESFACH NETWORKS
A network will be created which would, among other things, link the following U.S. and LDC research institutions:
RAND Corporation Agricultural Development Council Internat.ional Rice Research Institute Ford Foundation University of California, Berkeley University of Lhe Philippines-Los Banos University of the Philippines-Diliman FEDESARROLA (Col,-,mbia) Purdue University Funda: o Instituto de Pesquisas Economicas, Universidade de Sao Paulo (Brazil) Iustituto de Economia Agricolp, Sao Paulo Secretaria de Agricultura (Tirazil) Departamento de Ciencias Sociais Aplic:,'Jas, Sao Paulo Escola Superior de Agricultural "Luiz de Queiroz" (Brazll) Department, de Economia Rural, Universidade F-.derol de Vicosa (Brazil) Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuaria de Minas Gerais (Brazil) Departamento de "Economia Agricola, Universidade Federal de Ceara (Brazil) Chapingo Center for Agricultural Economics (Mexico) COCOSA (Mexico) Cornell University Indonesian Agro-Economic Survey USDA, Economic Research Service Institute of Development Research, Haile Selassie I U., Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Njala University College, Njala, Sierra Leor;p University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria Institute for Agricultural Economics, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria
Efforts would be made to involve IBRD, AID/PPC, and the international agricultural research centers in the research network. There would also be an effort to involve any other LDC research organizations or scholars who might be interested in this class of problems. The core of the research network is the scholars who are conducting the actual research, as opposed to advisors. One reason for linking all the sub projects together is to insure the use of compatible conceptual frameworks nd methodologies, so that cross-country comparisons can be made and so that the result. can be summed into broader conclusions when the findings are firm enough to support this sum-,ing up.
V. PLANS TO FACILITATE UTILIZATION OF RESEARCH RESULTS
The research and results of these projects will be written up in the usual technical form and distributed to:
a. International Agricultural Research Centers b. USAID Bureaus and Offices c. Universities and research organizations in the LDCs d. Interested scholars in U.S. universities and research organizations e. Interested experts in donor organizations f. Monitors of related contract research in AID, LDCs, government agencies, and donor organizations.
Each sub-project leader will be asked to prepare a brief non-technical summary of the research findings, also to address the question of the purpose to which the research is applicable and the information channels into which the results should be fed. These would include:
a. LDC Ministries of Agriculture b. LDC Planning Commissions c. USAID Missions d. USAID Bureaus and Offices e. Relevant research and policy making units of other donor organizations, and other government agencies.
Apart from the involvement of LDC agencies and scholars described earlier in this statement, the sub-project leaders will be urged strongly to identify competent scholars in the LDCs who are now conducting research in, or interested in participating in research in, areas related to the suhb ect research. 11e ne -l such scholars can be identified, and their participation worked out, the sub projects will involve LDC scholars in all phases of the research, from design through utilization.
VI. MANAGEMENT CONSIDERATIONS
A. Evaluation
This project will be evaluated in accordance with established AID policies and procedures. We propose to coordinate and manage the project along the following lines. Each of the sub-projects will be funded for a three-year period with the work divided into three phases. The Coordination Phase (Phase I) will cover a six-month period at the beginning of the project during which the three groups will develop a joint work plan. The Implementation Phase (Phase II) will be a two-year period during which the components of the work plan will be carried out. The Conclusion Phase (Phase III) will covei a six-month period at the end of the project during which tfne the groups will compare results and prepare a joint final report. All of the sub-pirojects are focused on the same general question: As rural development proceeds, how do technical change, the functioning of rural labor markets, and rural development policies and programs affect the welfare and economic behavior of poor rural households? Each of the projects, however, deals with slightly different aspects of the general question. The Corneli project cmphasizes the impact of new technology (especially inaw seed and chemical technoLogy) on the demand for inputs (particularly labor), on the distribution of income, and on the economic behavior of affected households. The Purdue project emphasizes the role of off-farm employment in small farmers' decisions to adopt new technology, the impact of rural development programs on small farmers' incomes, and on household behavior, particularly the effects of labor markets. The MSU project focuses on both tl,%. direct and indirect effects of new cechnology and go, eminent price policies on rural labor allocation, migration, consumption patterns, and the incomes of the rural poor. During Phase I the AID Project Manager will meet with the principal investigators in a series of worlkshops in order to assure that each group has a clear idea of the specific set of policies and projects to be analyzed by the other groups and the types of methodologies each plans to use. This Phase is to be completed by December 1976. Several other groups will be asked to participate in parts of the Phase I workshop activities. The contractors will be asked to prepare a joiht report by the end of Phase I which will provide:
i. An outline of the specific topics to Le addressed by each group;
2. Target dates for completion of each component of the work:
3. Information on how host government agencies are to be involved in the work; and
4. A plan for a set of network activities which will assure continued communication between the three groups and with others who may be undertaking closely related work. -12-
The joint report will be reviewed by an AID committee consisting of the ESP Project Manager and rural development specialists from each of the Regional Bureaus. This committee will, upon review of the joint report, advise the Project Manager on changes which it feels will make the project more useful to AID and to the host country governments. The bulk of the analysis is to be carried out during Phase II. The nature of this work is descr:ibed elsewhere in this project statement. The ESP Project Manager will, monitor progress of the project, assume responsibility for assuring that worksfhop activities are carried out, and review the project at the end of 1977 and again at the end of 1978. The work in Phase TI is expected to restilt in a set of individual reports from each project. The contractors will be required t incorporate the results of related research into their own work through state-of-the-art work presented either in special. studies or in the various project ,-eports. The objective is to assure a careful comparsion of the present project with the findings of other researchers. The last six months of the project (Phase IIl) will be devoted primarily to the preparation of a final joint report of the project participants. This is not intended to be the major objective of the project, but will be a relatively short report summarizing and integrating the major findings and conclusions of the three sub-projects. A set of workshop activities involving the project leaders and others will be carried out during the early part of this period with emphasis on the questions:
1. What have we learned?
2. How can these findings be communicated best to rural development policy makers?
The success of the set of activities outlined above depends in large part on the active involvement of AID personnel in the project. We feel that this is possible with the present and anticipated structure of TA/AGR/ESP. The university groups have already indicated their willingness to work jointly on this project.
B. AID Management
This project will be managed by TA/AGR/ESP and is estimated to require 60 man-days annually.
C. Additional Furding
Small amounts of noncontract funding will be required for employing outside consultants to assist AID personnel in evaluating the total work of each sub-project at the end-of-analysis stage, and to be available to the sub-project leaders as required.
D. Data Sets
This project will consist, in part, of the analysis of several unique data sets already available or in the process of becoming available from the following sources: International Rice Research Institute, los Banos, lPhilpplnes; Indonesian Agroeconomic Survey, Bogor; Njala Univer.,ity Coili e, Si .rra i.,un; Haile Selassie I University, Ethiopia; Sri Venknt e,11iir rIIT v:.1,:*,, ini -13
in Brazil, four universities with graduate programs in agricultural economics, and two policy research groups for important state governments. These data sets are described in detail in VII: A below.
VIII. TECHNICAL REVIEW
See III B, VIII A and VIII B.
VIII. RESEARCH PROJECT DESIGN AND METHODS
The discussion in Section VIII will be divided into two subsections. Subsection VIII A will describe the several data sets in considerable detail. Subsection VIII B will show for each subproject what the objectives are, how these relate to the over-all objectives in Section II B. Here also will be discussed the research methods to be used anL the hypotheses to be tested, organized according to the overall objectives and the country from which the data came.
A. Description of the Data.
PURDUE-BRAZIL
The Purdue-Brazil sample includes four types of households: (1) small land owners, (2) sharecroppers or renters, (3) permanent rural -)rkers employed on a particular farm for an extended period of time, an% (4) casual farm workers employed by a farm on a daily or piecework basis. l / The National Colonization and Agrarian Reform Institute (INCRLA) has defined a module (modulo) for each area of Brazil which is the lower limit of a farm unit which it is presumed will provide "full employment" and "reasonable income" for a family with four workers. In defining the size of the module for a region, the agro-climatic conditions, enterprises, level o- technology and general economic factors are explicitly considered. Any proper,_.-z smaller than the module? as defined by INCRA are considered minifundios or small farms and are not legally permitted to be further divided. The size of the module is about 40 hectares in Vale do Ribeira, 33 Lectares in Zona da Mata and Campos das Vertentes and 83 hectares in Caninde.2/ A list of individuals owning properties of less than the module was available from INCRA for each study area, and was used to select a random sample of small landowners. Information which would permit random sampling of the sharecroppers or renters and hired workers did not exist. Therefore, the samples of these other categories were obtained by interviewing the sharecropper, permanent farm worker and temporary worker located clu.3est to the randomly selected small owner. The distribution of the initial samples is presented below:
I/ Because of the limited incidence of permanent or casual farm workers households in Caninde in the Northeast, that sample included only small owners and sharecroppers.
2/ See project statement fcr brief description of th study ar.;'a. -14-
Distribution of the Samples by Category of Principal Occupation and Area, 1972-73
Region
Campos das Principal Vale do Ribeira Zona de Mata Verentes Caninde Occupation Sao Paulo Minas Gerais Minas Gerais Ceara Total
Small owners 55 33 36 66 190
Sharecroppersa / 40 34 35 64 173
Permanent workers 57 30 33 -- 120
Temporary workers 62 31 32 -- 125
Total 214 128 136 130 608
/ In Vale do Ribeira there were 21 sharecroppers and 19 renters. One renter was encountered in Compos das Vertentes and none in the other regions.
Although the households were classified by the principal occupation of the head of the household, it was common for other family members to have off-farm jobs and for the household head to have additional part-time occupation. Throughout the data collection process the concept of a household or family has been used and information was generally collected for all of tile people living under one roof. 3 / In the states of Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais, the initial interview was conducted in July 1973 and obtained information for the crop year of July 1972 to June 1973. Followup interviews with the same households were made in Junuary and July of 1974. Ultimately, data were obtained for two agricultural years. Because of differences in the timing of the rainy season, the initial interviews in Ceara were in October 1973. Abnormal weather conditions and flooding caused a delay of the second interview unitl August 1974. The final interviews with the sam households were therefore delayed until August 1975, with the result that data were obtained for the region with the greatest climatic variation, for three agricultural years that included a wide range of different climatic conditions. The data were collected with the conceptual framework of the economics of the household. Detailed information was obtained on the family and household, especially hoq members of the houseiold use their time and participate in the labor market. For small land owners, renters and sharecroppers, comprehensive
3/ In Sao Paulo some single workers were boarding with a familv but only the individual was considered. -15
data were collected on resource endowment, level of production technology, production coefficients and cultural practices used. Complementary data ol the production technology, social services and infrastructure available to these groups was also collected. The first part (1.1) of the first questionnaire emphasized family history. Information was obtained about the parents of both the household head and spouse, educational level and other training, year of marriage, and similar data on the children. The work history of the household head, in terms of occupation, location, months worked, change of jobs and part-time employment was recorded from the year the individual entered the labor market until the present. Tnformation was also obtained on the wife's labor force participation. The second parL (1.2) of the first questionnaire was an inventory of household goods. For land owners and sharecroppers, an Inventory of land resources controlled and their uses were obtained. A history of land purchases and sales, if any, were collected for the household and included details on this transaction. A similar history of rental and sharecropping arrangements was also obtained. An inventory of products, inputs, consumer duraVle goods, buildings, machinery, equipment and livestock was oLtained. In part three (1.3) information on the allocation of time by household members was collected. The household composition by sex, age, educational level., general health and principal activity of each family member together with information on the local school was recorded. Tle distribution of time for each family member seven years of age or older from about 5:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. was obtained for the seven days preceding the interview. Activities were coded as (i) productive activities on the farm, (2) off-farm productive activities, (3) maintenance activities, (4) leisure and other activities. Information on the amount of off-farm work or work outside the normal occupation performed by various family members and earnings was obtained. A series of questions about participation in the labor market and labor hired w, asked. Part four (1./4) of the first questionnaire dealt with crop production during the 1972-73 year. Tables were set up to record area, yield and the various uses of production. Information en the place, time and other conditions of sale were also obtained. Similar information was obtained for livestock, livestock products, and forestry or other products. One sectirn of part four obtained information with respect to the quantity of various inputs used in tie production of the different crops and timing of their application. Information was also obtained with respect to which operations used labor on a piecework basis and differences between practices used this year and normal practices. Production expenses for the farm as a unit were collected. Farmers were asked whether they followed a series of produ'ction practices and information about price variation was obtained. Part five (1.5) of the first questionnaire collected information about family expenditures for the preceding year by major c;ategory. Information about financial activities and miscellaneous receipts from the nonfarm sector (pensions, gifts, etc.) was obtained. Detailed information was obtained on the source, conditions of repayment, and use of loans from institutional and non-institutional sources. The final section (1.6) of the first questionnaire collected information Iabout tile attitudes of the head of the houiseh-Id toward family size and the role of children. Inquiry was made with respect to family members who had migrated to other areas of the country and tle views of the person being interviewed toward migration. The household head .;as a'i ,ilcii th,
availability and use of. public services , I Io Isn,, .1A ,uw aTh,', of government price supports. The ciiest imn:,r <. about food cnnsumptinn. -16-
Based on the experience with the first questionnaire and some preliminary results, the second and third questionnaires were designed to complement the first. It should be noted that on the second interview, a sub-sample of house hold heads in eah category were given nonverbal intell igence tests .4/ These randomly selected individuals were also placed in a "game" situation to obtain in format ion with respect to the influence of risk and uncertainty on decision making. The second questionnaire gave particular emphasis to the labor market, technology and soures of i.n formation. The first part (2.1) or the second questionnaire obtained data about the household head's contact with nearby centers, knowledge of job opportunities, salary level.s, public servic_ avai.lability. The second part (2.2) inquired about actual or potential employ ment al-ternatives, conditions of employment, use of hired labor and job alternatives for wives. More general information about nonfari employment opportunities anc desires with respect to children's employnent was collected in the next part,-; (2.3 and 2.4). Part five (2.5) shi.fted emphasis to labor used in farming, availability of labor and joint use of equipment. Information and communication was the subject of part six (2.6) of the second q, _stionnaire. The farmer was asked about the sources of information he used for crop problems, prices and technology. They were also questioned on the use of mass media (radio, newspaper, etc.) and the type of information obtained. Some information was obtained in an attempt to measure the fanner's general level of knowledge. Information on production, prices, marketing and inves, ories similar to the first questionnaire was obtained. In relation to marketing, information with respect to informal ties (such as loans, inputs, etc.) was also obtained. For sharecroppers and renters, information was obtained on rental arrangements, improvements made on rental. property, work for landlords and other information. in each of the regions being studied several crops were selected for detailed questioning about the technology used, results obtained and sources of information. In the case of Sao Paulo, tea, bananas, and subsistence crops were considered. In Minas Gerais the crops ;,ero corn, beans and rice, while tree cotton tok the place of rice in Caninde. The s',ocifi~c forms of thc questions were regionally adapted. The family aid work history information was updated from the preceding interview. Labor force t--'rticipation by the wife, changes in irrigation, land transactions, changes in sharecropping and rentals were also updated. A new inventory of products and inputs on hand was collected. Time allocation questions were repeated. Information was obtained on the daily consumption of foods. The third quest ionnaire continued the emphasis of the previous question naires on migration, inquiring about the family's history and whether other family members had also migrated. The information about the family was updated to reflect changes in the previous six months. l)etailed information was obtained on the children living at home and studying and/or working in terms of health, work on the farm and labor forc- participation. Information was obtained for the children living away from lome as to where they are currently living, age at departure and remittances. Information was obtained
4/ This test information was of Particular intres;t co the iect llit!i participat ing i.n the project. It may also he used in v" 44n,,r ;,,r, efficiency among farms .
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about other individuals living in the household, their labor force participation and contributions to the household in the 1973-74 crop year. The head of the household was asked about his wife's normal daily activities and other periodic responsibilities. Questions were also asked with respect to her labor force participation and health. The household head was asked to detail his labor force participation since the preceding interview, along with his typical daily activities for the time of year of the interview. Information was obta ned with respect to his perception of job opportunities and labor hired if any. Land owned or rented (for cash or share) was inventoried by use and conditions ofotenre. Land use by topography was recorded. Inquiry was made with respect to land transactions which have occurred and conditions of these transactions. An updated inventory of products and inputs, consumer durables, financial investments, buildings and improvements, machinery and equipment and 1ivestock was obtained. Farm output for the 1973-74 crop year was recorded, giving emphasis to the second semester to complement the preceding questionnaire. Information was obtained on crops, livestock, livestock products, forestry and other products. Details with respect to off-farm work and other sources of income such as rental, pensions, boarders, etc. were obtained. Availability and use of credit was explored in detail. Information was collected on the quantity, price, total expenditure, form of payment and from whom the farm inputs used were purchased. Farmers were asked about the details of the sharecropping and land rental arrangements. Total expenditures and expenditures by major category for family living expenses were obtained. Inquiries about other sources and use of funds such as loans, gifts, savin s and investment were made. In the final section o- the third questionnaire, information was collected with respect to the frequency and quantity of consumption of various foods. Information was asked about a number of specific foods and what family member consumed them. Questions were also asked with respect to the medical care and nutrition of children. Students or graduates of the agricultural colleges in each area were used as enumerators and the same group participated in each survey. This enabled the enumerators to become familiar with the pe:uliarities of the people interviewed. The individuals being interviewed were paid approximately a day's wage. This was thought to be particularly important to get cooperation of the daily workers, and it certainly Ihelped maintain the interest of the households in the repeated interviews. A particular characteristic of the Brazil sample is that it depended on memory recail. For some kinds of information, the period covered was relatively short, while for otl'rs, particularly the life cycle data, the period in some cases was long. In general, data that required a relatively high degree of accuracy, such as the use of time, were restricted to the previous week. The tradeoff between memory bias and the bias that comes from intensively observing the sample unit by frequent monitoring and collection of data is not known. We do know that data similar to those collected in this study have been commonly used in Brazil, with results that are consistent and that "make sense". Until more careful analyses are made of alternative data collection procedures, little more than that can be said. -18-
During the year to two year period covered by the three interviews, some of the households were lost. In tn.a Vale do Ribeira about ten percent of the original sample was lost, generally because they moved to other areas of the country. In a few cases, deaths or other changes completely altered the house hold and would not permit analvsis of the entire period. In Minas Gerais and Ceara, less than five percent of the households were lost because less geographic migration ocrurred in t:hose region s. It is expected tat t:he data set which has been developed will contribute to all of the general ohje, tives of the stud.. Information has been collected which will permit an analvsis of the effects of technical change on total resource productivity, labor supply and household incomes. Substantial emphasis has helen gven to tbhe intersectoral ].abor market and migration. This will permit an analvsis of tier' the labor market affecthe adoption of new technology fln(i the d istr ibutio of its bcnft;s. Tie Mexican work will. he part. icularly complement ary for tii s objective. A iven the in formation available as imdicited above, it will be p ssible to develop and test methodologies for measuring the effects K ,'grircul tural and rural dcevelopment policies and for c.t intI ivg the eff-:cLs of these policies and programs on the poor. An e-specially strong part of this data set is the information available on the household. This will permit tle analysis of household behavior and labor market participatien of the rural poor. The allocation of time, income and other assets will be studied in detail, with comparisons being made among the various groups of the rural poor.
MICHIGAN STATE: SIERRA LEONE, GHANA AND ETHIOPIA
The focus of the Michigan State research will be Sierra Leone with supplemtary information provided from Ghana, Benin, Ethiopia and possibly northern Nigeria. The ecological, economic and institutional environment of the study areas can be represented by the following information from Sierra Leone. Sierra Leone lies largely within the forest zone of West Africa. Traditional agriculture with rice as the most important crop is based on the shifting cultivation system. Land-labor ratios are high so that in most areas seasonal labor rather than land is a binding constraint. Substantial areas of the country are also suitable for tree crops particularly coffee, cocoa and oil palm. Per capita income Ls approximately $150 per annum and has been growing at the rate of about 2 percent per year in recent years. Population growth has been modest to high and is estimated to be about 2.5 percent per year. Agriculture employs some 70 percent of the population and only about 20 percent of the population is in urban areas. However urbanization has been proceeding quite rapidly particularly in response to the second major industry -- diamond
5/ Final arrangements have not vet been worked out for the Mexican study. The focus of the study will be on factors affecting the adoption of new technology and the consequences of such adoption, with the population groups consisting of the intensive rural development schemes that have been patterned after Plan Puebla. Major attention will be given to the labor market, and the data will be collected on a household basis with some attention given to the use of time. -19-
Data for this study have been collected under the African Rural Employment k'rogram and related activities. Rural survey data collected in three countries, Sierra Leone, Ghana and Ethiopia, represent some of the most detailed information available in Africa on farm and nonfarm production activities, labor utilization co',sumpt ion, education and migration.
Sierra Leone. Sevora comprehensive rural surveys were conducted in Sierra Leone during 1974/75. The central survey was a nationwide survCy of rural housenolds, including L.,Ln farm and nontarm households, to collect prod,,ctLi n and con sumptio information. The country was divided into eight resource regions :)n the ba1;is of iactor undowments and climatic characteristics. rh rce centus enuiie rat 1io areas were randomly chosen in each resource region and approxiniately twentv h,uiselial is randomly chosen from each area to give a sample ol about fivt hundred Iouseholds. Enumnera to rs were sLationed in each ot tile twenty-four survey areas and interviews conducted with eachi household twice weekly over a twelve to fifteen month period. The following information was obLained. Labor utilization: Daily data on each household member's time allocation ot labor to farm and nonfarm production activities. Inputs: tiailv data on cash purchases of production inputs ai,J hired labor. Outputs and sales: Daily data on farm and nonfarm output and sales including labor hired out. SLocks: Lanor, capital and inventory stocks at the beginning of the year. Produce in store at the beginning of each month. Consumiption: oaly cash purchases of consumption items. Acreages and yields: All fields were measured and yield plots laid to measure vields directly for major annual crops. Change in intormation: Retrospective information on changes in farming techniques and farmers' perceptions of new technologies. Migration, iertility and education: Details of f--rtility, migration and educat ion were recorded1 for ench househo 5 member. T17hose who had migrated to urban areas were traced to obtain information on urban incomes and urban-rnral remittances. The rural household survey provides details on incomes, technology, labor utilization, etc., lor ditterent regions of the country. Also included in the sample were nouseholds employing different crop production systems and tech nologies. For example, the survey includes five different traditional systems of rice production, as well as farmers producing tree crops such as oil palm, coftee and cocoa for export. Productionstechnologies range from traditional hand cultivation to improved seed and water control for swamp rice and in some areas use of large tractors from a government tractor hire scheme. Additional data from Sierra Leone are provided by several other surveys. A smnal I-scale industry survey collecting similar information on production costs and recurns on daily basis over a twelve month period was conducted in both rural small towns and large urban areas providing information on the rural poor. Again an array of industries and technologies was represented in -20 the sampLe.l/ Likewise a survey of fishing households provides a unique set of data on a range of technologies from small one man canoes to large trawler operat ions. Furthermore, data are available on the cnaracteristics of the communities included rural in the study such as tile availability of government services including schools and health and ease of cmiPnunications.
Ghiana. A samIple survey ot 170 rice farming households was undertaken representing five production systells ranging from sinall farmers using hand cultivation for land preparation to large farmers owning tractors and using combine harvestors. Data were collected on inputs and outputs on a weekly basis over the cropping season.2/
Lttiopia. In EtrI iopia, ongoing researcii in the Ada District in conjunction with the Institute of l)evelopment Research of Addis Ababa University will provide data on )(eneLts ot .' spec i tic proj Cect . About eighty rural nouseholds partici pating in the U.S.A. I.D. financed Ada )istrict Development Project and forty nonpart tcL)at lng housenolIis were selected for detai 1ed study from a larger baseline survey sample interviewed in 1973. Data on allocation of household labor tiMe i.s wel 1 as otner resource use and output by field are being collected. Because ol the recent land refonn act in Ethiopia tl.e data collecting procedures have been mod ified to capture the dynamics of household reaction to the land r ef orm. fo supplement the micro-level lata, secondary data, e.g. , government expenditure patterns, foreign expenditure patterns, etc., have been collected. Because al I the detaited micro-level studies described above have mainly encompassed technolog.y available and in use in Sierra Leone, Ghana and Ethiopia, additional secondary data will neec to be collected on the resource requirements and projected output effects of technology in the pipeline. In this respect it would be necessary to visit researcii institutions. Such as the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA), tie French agricultural research organization s in West Africa (IRAT), Anmadu Bello University (ABU), and other organizations that are developing and testing improved technology in Africa.
Ct)RNELL - PhiILIPPINES
Sample design. Two series of farm surveys carried out by the International Rice Research institute (lRRI) served as the basis for this research -- one in Laguna Province and the other in Central Luzon. Mr. Ranade conducted a companion survey during tile 1974 crop year in Central Luzon.
1/ For further information on the small-scale industry survey, see Enyinna Uhuta and Carl Liedholm, "The Role of Small Scale Industry in Employment Generation and Kural Development: initial Research Results from Sierra Leone," African Rural Employment Paper No. 11, Department of Agricultural Economics, Micnigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, 1975. 2/ Fred Everett qinch, ill, Losts an Returns of Alternative Rice Production Systems inINorthern 6hana: implications for Output, Employment and Income Distribution, Ph.b. Thesis, Michigan State University, 1976 -21-
The IRRI survey in Laguna was conducted on a sample of 114 farms chosen at random from among 3 municipalities selected purposefully. Data were collected for each season from 1965 to 1971. Information was selected from the 1965-66 year when all farmers were growing local varieties and compared with data from the 1970-71 year whcn most farmers had planted large amounts of their land to new varieties. This allowed for analysis of technical change. Farmers were interviewed in both the wet and dry season. All 114 farmers produced during tie wet season whlile oni]" 81 had irrigation allowing a dry season crop. The survey was conducted oin the same 114 farm.s in both years. All farmers cooperated in both surveys. Similarly, 114 farms were selected by IRRI for field survey work in 1966 in Central Luzon. 1his survey was carried out on the farmers living along a main highwav in Central ,uzon. Most of the farmers grew only wet season rice. As in Laguna, an at tempt was made to revisit the same farms in 1970; however, only 76 farms could be located due to land consolidation and attrition. To provide more current inf ormation relative to the impact of technical change, in 1974 Mr. Ranade sampled 66 farmers that had cooperated in the previous IRRI samp 1e. Data Collected. The basic purpose of this research was to determine how new technology alters the demand for farm resources, with particular emphasis on labor. Data from each year measuring technical change included the use of hand tract-ors for land preparation; proportion of acreage planted to high yielding varieties; the degree of mechanization in harvesting and threshing activities; contacts with extension personnel; and expenditures on irrigation, fertilizer, and other agriculturna chemicals. Data collected in each of the years relating to demand for labor included proportion of share tenants; labor supplied by the landlord and his family; labor supplied by the tenant and his family; labor supplied by landless laborers; and total and hired labor required for farms having differing levels and mixes of technology. Conceptual frami york. It should be kept in mind that this research pertains only to rice farmers in the Philippines. It concentrates on how changed technology in rice culture alters farm income, the proportion of income accruing to various factors of production and specifically how technical change influences the demand for factors of production, particularly labor. The approach of this work is to examine the distribution of gains from increased output for the same set of farmers before and after the technological change. To do this the study uses four different criteria of distribution. The first -riterion is the real or absolute farm income of a participant which tells whether a particular individual has incurred gains or losses due to the technological change. The second is the proportion of shares going to different participants which indicates whether a particular person is better off relative to others after the technological change. The third criterion judges the shares of benefits or losses in the increase or decrease in production after the technological change. This criterion is called an incremental share in altered output. The fourth criterion examines the distribution of income that remains in the agricultural sector. This is defined as the proportionate shares of participants in value added, where value added equals the farm income after deducting expenses for current inputs leaving the agricultural sector. All four of these criteria are taken into account for they may not give consistent results. -22-
Each of the first three criteria compares income distribution from new technologies with that in the traditional technology as a base. The logic behind them is similar to that behind! index numbers. The fourth criterion is incremental and involves marginal analysis. The earnings in farm product ion computed for the technological classifi cation of participants give us shares of factors in production. In computing these factor shares two different approaches are followed. The first approach is to obtain the four criteria given above by computing factor-incomes directly from the data by usJing an accounting procedure. In the second approach the factor shares are estimated by using production functions. This approach involves two major steps. First is the specification of some reasonably appropriate input-output relationships that will reflect the actual production technol ogy. After finding such relationships the second step is to compute the marginal products of inputs. This gives an idea of how much income inputs woiuld receive if they were pa-id according to their productivity. The second step is re at ivtLly mechanical, while the iirSt step requires some sound knowledge about reality. It is assumed that such knowledge can be gained by doing analysis on changes in the actual shares of participants as farmers move from the old to modern technologies. In this way the study attempts to keep an equilibritmi between the analyses on observed shares and estimated production elasticities. In following the production function approach, the thesis tests two main hypotheses. The first is that the observed share and estimated production elasticity of labor are equal. This hypothesis in turn tests whether laborers earn their marginal product. The second hypothesis is that the share of a factor varies according to the level at which the farmer operates. In other words, the study tests whether the share of a factor varies at different levels of input. To investigate this, one requires some criterion of changes in factor shares. The two-input case i, well established in the literature and the elasticity of substitution has been recognized as the criterion of changes in factor shares. However, relatively little attention has been devoteJ to analyzing factor shares in the case of three or more inputs, despite the fact that agricultural production does not belong to the two-input world. This study first finds that the elasticity of substitution is not the appropriate criterion when production is analyzed for more than two input variables, and then it suggests the most appropriate criterion of changes in production function. In order to test the second hypothesis one requires additional production functions along with the widely used Cobb-Douglas function. This is basically because the Cobb-Douglas function assumes in itself that the factor siJares remain constant for all levels of inputs in its domain. In view of this, the study uses two variants of Constant Elasticity of Substitution recommended in the literature. Using these two variants the study analyzes changes in factor shares at different levels of inputs. Testing these two hypotheses is extremely crucial from the policy point of view. Rejection of the first hypothesis implies that the labor market is imperfect. This gives some scope for modifying the distribution of benefits if such distribution does not satisfy an important measure of welfare, namely, relatively equitable distribution. The acceptance of the second hypothesis implies that the distribution of benefits is different at different input-levels. This gives rise to some policy implications with respect to institutions providing inputs to farmers. -23-
CORNELL - INDONESIA
Sample design. Sampling was based on data from a census conducted by the Indonesian Ag-o-Economic Survey during 1974. Initially, three villages were chosen: Banyutowo, Rowosari, and Bandengan near Bogor. Eighty households were randomly selected in each village. These households were picked from the total household number sampled by the Agro-Ecoinomic Survey. In the selection process, consideration was given to several key factors: distance from market, size of holdings, and degree of contact with extension personnel and other agencies of technical change in agriculture. These criteria were utilized in both village selection and households visited within each village. The within village sample was desig ied to reflect factors associated with labor supply. The following stratification procedure was used in each village. Asset Owners: Sawah farmers, tambak farmers, fishing boat owner.,. Laborers: Sawah laborers, tapibak laborers, fishing laborers. Data collected. The basic purpose of this research was to determine the available supply of rural. labor for farming activities. The total quantity of labor, and the sex and age composition was gathered for households having differing levels of agricultural technology. Additionally, the surveys were designed so that information on the compositioa, amount, and seasonal distribu tion of hired agricultural labor was catalogued so as to relate to different levels of technology. Three separate questionnaires were employed -- a basic socio-economic questionnaire, a monthly survey centering on seasonal availability and utilization of labor, and a farm and fisheries management questionnaire. Socio-economic survey: This questionnaire provided data on household characteristics expected to be stable throughout the survey period; for example: age composition of the household, primary and secondary occupation of each household member, management of owned and rented land, income earning assets, ownership of non-agricultural assets, and purchases of consumer durables. Monthly surveys: For each household member over the age of 6, data were collected on the number of days during the past month and hours per day worked in each of the following activities: family labor inputs on farm enterprises; wage labor hired, by agricultural enterprise; household work by sex and age; and labor allocated to agricultural and non-agricultural trading activities. Also monthly data are being collected on income and expenditures. Farm and Fisheries Management Questionnaires: For each enterprise, information is being collected on purchased inputs, area and yield, credit, and sales. Conceptual framework. The work in Indonesia focuses mainly on estimating supply schedules for various types of agricultural labor as technology moves from traditional to modern. Farm labor, in general, can be classified into three main types: (1) farmer's family labor, (2) hired landless labor, and (3) exchanged labor. For each of these three categories, a further classifica tion can be made accountin. for age and sex. The basis for incorporating age-sex composition into tlie analysis is that there are some operations which only men can do (such as land pre'aration) while some jobs all can do (such as transplanting, weeding and replanting). In the case of income effects, an increase in family income is likely to increase family leisure and lead to a consequent decline in work at home, assuming a fairly high degree of substitutability between market and home-produced goods and services. -24-
For the alternative concepts of work choices, the appropriate decision making unit is the family. Within this context, the allocation of time between market vork, home work and leisure will be determined by factors such as the income status of the family, tastes, biological and/or cultural specialization of functions and relative price specific to each family member. These in turn reflect differences in earning power and marginal productivities in alternative pursuits among family members. In its present form time-allocation theory obviously does not constitute a fully developed theory of labor supply. It does appear to have a great deal of potential for providing insights into labor supply decision-making processes. Indeed, in recent years several empirical applicat ions of time-allocation theory to labor supply behavior have been attempted within the context of an industrializea, relatively high-income environment. The present study will explore the applicability of the time allocation approach to the rural sector of low income economies. This issue is particularly crucial in view of the existing ga ip in labor supply analysis in this type of environment. The dispute over the usefulness of "willingness to work" data draws attention to the need for an adequate framework within which to identify and analyze the type of factors which determine availability of the various types of labor, and the manner in which they interact with one ;nother. The need for an adequate framework becomes more crucial in the context of dynamic agriculture. Experience with the Plil ippine data shows that absolute income increases for all participants in agriculture as technology moves from traditional to modern. Thus, one needs to know the effect of this increase in income on household behavior and on labor supply schedules. Additionally, the Philippine work reveals that although absolute income of all. participants increased, some participants gained more than others. Thus, income effects operated at different degree. of intensity on different types of farm households. The Indonesian model, is primarily developed to identify the factors which enter into labor supply decisions of the household, and to analyze their inter actions in terms of complementarities and trade-offs. The'model is partly recursive and partly simultaneous. The precise mechanisms of interaction among variables are not possible to postulate at this stage and so no specific functional form of equations entering into the model have been given. However, the model gives an idea with respect to the variables for which collection of data is in process in Indonesia. Definitions of Variables 1. Household variables decided within the home a) Labor: Time spent by man in wage labor, woman'- labor force participation, duration of work in wage labor, duration of work in household labor (women) b) Income: Han's income, woman's income, family income c) Goods: Market purchased, home produced d) Health and nutritional status of children 2. Household variables rdetenined in study period Wealth (permanent income); Age distribution of children; Household size; Educational level: man, woman; Number of adults in the household not in the market labor force; Measure of houseoold's income variability -25
3. Household variables decided outside the household Wage rates for women and men; Demand for Labor: woman days/month, man days/month; Distance of job from home; Price of substitutes for woman's time: foods, services; Weighted price index; Distance of market from home.
CORNELL - INDIA
Sample desin_. This sample of farms in Andhra Pradesh corresponds to a six village survey of tractorization completed in 1973. From this benchmark study four of the villages were selected for the present research. The villages selected were those exhibiting the greatest variability in proportion of farmers owning and renting tractors. The four villages have access to extension personnel within a six-mile radius. Within each village eighteen farmers are being interviewed. These farmers are the same as those interviewed in the 1973 survey. They were randomly selected and are presumed to provide an unbiased estimate of farmers in this area of India. Data collected. The basic purpose of this research is to determine the interaction of demand and supply of farm labor as it relates to varying levels of technology. Particular emphasis is being given to tractor mechanization. The questionnaires follow the fornat employed in the Philippines and indonesia. It is hoped that data on factors influencing both demand and supply of farm labor collected on the same farm will serve to mesh with and enrich the Philippine and Indonesian data. Specific emphasis in data collection is being given to measures of the degree of modernization, specific inventory of implements, including production, storage, and marketing equipment as well as buildings; mechanization including tractors, engines, electric motors, mechanical sugircane crushers, irrigation pumps and pipe; and a complete categorization of crop acreages and livestock enterprises. Factors influencing the supply of farm labor include availability of household labor, hired casual labor by enterprise and seasonality, servant labor, and payment of labor in kind or in cash. In addition, the use of draft power by enterprise and season is being collected. The field work in India began in February, 1976. Consequently, only the most preliminary analysis has been made. It is expected that data collection will continue through February, 1977. Conceptual framework. The Philippine research concentrates on how technical change influences the demand for farm labor, while the Indonesian data concentrates on the supply of labor in rural households and how decisions concerning its use are made. The work in India is meant to be a "point in time" estimate of how technical change influences the interaction of demand and supply schedules for agricultural labor. The broad objective of this study is to formulate a model to analyze the effect of change in technology on demand and supply of labor with emphasis on interaction of technology with cropping patterns. In particular, the study will attempt to identify the major determinants of: a) cropping patterns and food grain production b) demand for fertilizers c) demand for human labor d) supply of family labor e) demand for hired labor f) milk and other livestock production -26
and predict changes in these variables as a result of changes in their deter minants. Also, an attempt is being made to determine the trends in the potential lab~r supply in the agricultural sector. Given the low productivity in agriculture, low functional mobility of the population and social attitude towards manual work, mechanization is likely to grow rapidly. It Is presumed that any attempt to discourage mechanization might result in a fall in output, increase in money lending activity by richer landowning classes, and a transfer of land to the rich from the small farmers creating more pressure for mechanization. Savings in rural areas could be mobilized for capital formation. Increased family labor supply may reduce demand for hired labor. Even if total employment and income rises with the introduction of mechanization, it may not be desirable from an equity point of view. As agricultural laborers live close to subsistence and as labor income is the major source of livelihood, mechanization will be disastrous for this group. Thus the introduction of mechanization on a large scale might worsen the income distribution leading to social tension between the landless class and the land owning class. The problem may be less severe if the increase in demand for labor exc7eeds the increase in supply of family labor. Agricultural policies as well is technical change can influence income distribution markedly. In many parts of India, selling milk and poultry products is a poor man's job. These activities require a much smaller investment relative to crop production and products have high income elasticities of demand. By providing incentives for the poorer section of the population to specialize in these activities, additional income and employment can be generated in rural areas. The methodology will involve the specification of seven equations: The demand for bullock labor as related to farm size, availability of hired or owned tractors, and composition of cropping enterprises. Irrigated acreage, allocated among various crops with reference to availability of credit, profitability of various crops, labor demand of various crops both annually and seasonally, availability of family labor, technology available for various crops and the length of time since its introduction, availability of bullock and tractor power, and opportunities for nonfarm employment. Fertilizer used on a given farm as a function of availability of credit, nonagricultural income, education and contact with extension personnel, expected fertilizer-output price ratios, and the availability of companion technology. The demand for labor per acre of an individual crop, as influenced by wage rates per day, level of fertilizer application per acre, technology, and the availability of bullock and tractor power. The demand for labor is estimated for each crop separately and then aggregated to obtain the total demand for labor. Participation of family members in agricultural technology, as a function of per capita income of the household, the literacy rate of individual members, caste, and technology. The total demand for labor less demand for household labor is the estimate of the demand for hired labor. Another important factor is the wage rate paid to hired labor. Milk production and distribution is considered an important activity for the landless. Milk production as a function of number of milk animals, availability and price of feed, labor, and accessibility to an outlet for milk These equations will be incorporated into a recursive model. The recursive model format is employed since farmers make decisions on different sets of variables at different points of time in the production period. Survey information will be divided into two subsets: farmers who have tractor mechanization and those who rely on owned or hired bullock power. The interaction coefficient between mechanization and other variables will be used to estimate the pathway of changes in total income, income distribution and employment, occurring as a result of tractor mechanization. -27-
B. Hypotheses to be Tested and Analytical Methodologies to be Used for Each Objective
Objective 1: To compare and contrast production systems, use of time, participation in labor markets, and family income under different ecological and institutional environments, at different stages of development in selected Latin American, Asian and African countries.
PURDUE-BRAZIL. All data will be summarized in terms of means and other measures of central tendency, and comparisons will be made among tenure and labor force groups, and among regions. The samples were drawn from three regions that represent a wide range of ecological conditions and quite dif ferent stages of development. Within Brazil considerable analysis can be made of the potential impact of these factors on the nature of rural poverty and of the small productive units. Statistical procedures will involve analysis of variance, chi square, and t tests on the means. The focus of the analysis will be on measures of central tendency, but attention will be directed toward the differences in variances within the different subsamples, since differences in ecological and economic factors may have as much influence on variances as on the means and medians.
Hypotheses to be Tested:
la. That the stage of development of the region in which the household] are located affects the allocation of time within the household (How to Test? -- LRM). lb. That in general the allocation of time between household-farm and market uses of time is efficient. 1c. That the production systems on the farms reflect factor prices, given the ecological constraints and market opportunities.
MICHIGAN STATE-SIERRA LEONE. Descriptive or tabular analyses supple mented by analysis of variance procedures will be employed to identify differences in production systems both with respect to particular crops (such as rice) and also particular farming systems. Households in the Sierra Leone and Ghanaian survey have already been stratified according to the cropping system. Descriptive profiles of the time allocation of family members will be constructed with particilar attention to farm-nonfarm allocation of labor by season. Factors affecting sex )ifferentials in labor use will also be explored in a related study by Spencer.I / This will enable an analysis of intrahousehold distribution between sexes, of benefits and burdens of agricultural policies.
l/ Dunstan S. C. Spencer, "African Women in Agricultural Development: A Case Study in Sierra Leone," African Rural Economy Working Paper No. 11, Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, 1976. -28-
Cornell - all. Projects. Data from the Philippines, Indonesia, and India provides a rich source of information relative to farming systems operating under a diverse range of production systems, labor utilization, policy and institutional arrangements. The three countries provide a continuum in many important para meters of agricultural practices. In the area of Indonesia being considered, there is little or no mechanization of agricultural activities and a large pool of underemployed family and landless labor is available. In India, approximately 40 percent of the farms sampled have tractor mechanization and underemployment is at a considerably lower level than in Indonesia. In both countries, little fertilizer is used; however improved seeds are widely adopted. In the Philippines sample farmers all use fertilizer, irrigate, and nearly all have adopted improved rice varieties. Mechanical rice threshing is widespread. Landless laborers are a smaller proportion of the total labor force in the Philippines than in either Indonesia or India. information from the Philippines is drawn from rice monoculture in Laguna and Central Luzon. These statistics allow an analysis ot technical change specifically the adoptici of high yielding varieties of rice, fertilizer, and mechanized threshing over the 1965-6b through 1974-75 crop years. During this period, adoption of high yielding varieties increased from approximately 10 percent of the acreage on sample farms to nearly 100 percent. The same sample of farms is followed throughout the time periou with data available concerning the rate of in creased use ot fertilizer and the proportion of rice threshed mechanically. Two villages near Bogor, Indonesia have been the subject of an in-depth survey for the period June 1975 through August 197b. While rice dominates, a wide variety of crops is grown in this region. The collected data combined with the Agro-Economic Survey conducted by the Indonesian government and the University of Bogor will allow both cross sectional and time series analysis. The household surveys will provide detailed information concerning the utili zation of farm labor and the trade-off potentials between farm and non-farm employ:nent under varying conditions ot technology. Survey work in India is being conducted in Ahdhra Pradesh State around four central areas: Madanapalli, Aragonda, Chittoor, and Kalahasti. As in the data for the Philippines, survey work in India will provide time series data for a specific sample of farms. In 1973 six villages wcre studied with partLcular reterence to the use of tractor mechanization. Building on this data the same farmers are being interviewed on a weekly basis during the 1976 77 crop year. The farms of this area are varied, both from the standpoint of size and cropping patterns. There is also an interesting contrast between farms having irrigation and those operating a rain-fed agricultural system. -29-
The data collected in these three study areas represents considerable differential in man-land ratios, cropping patterns, and resource endowment per farm. It is believed that an examination of these three diverse areas of Asian agriculture will proviie tile basis for worth while analysis as to the forces which perpetuate rural poverty and more specifically the factors associated with utilization of labor in highly differentiated areas. A wide variety of analytical tools will be utilized. Production functions will be used to coapare how factor shares will vary under different eco logical sysrems and institutional arrangements over time. Case studies and representative farms will be analyzea through budgeting and linear programing to identily how production techniques coupled with the social and political environment affect labor use and agricultural income.
Hypotheses to be tested:
1. Production practices on the farm are constrained by environmental, social, and institutional factors as well as more traditional economic variables such as price Gf inputs, value of output, and seasonal wage rate differential.
2. The rake of technological advancement, particularly in a monocultured rice society is importantly affected by the evolution of increased security in the form of staole prices, irrigation, and an improved infrastructure.
3. The stage or economic development infrastructure in a region is an important determinant of the participation of different household members in the agricultural labor force.
Objective 2: To analyze sources of income and differences in income of poor rural households, including landowners, tenants, and landless workers.
PURuUE-BRAZIL. Income generating functions will be tile main instrument for analyzing the sou-ces of income and the differences in income among the poor rural households. These functions will eventually be specified for each -30
ot the population eroups and for each region. Independent variables repre senti ngl human and phystcaI capital variables, as wel as institutional and regional variables will be included. The comparison among population groups and among regions should permit the testing of a rather wide range of factors hypothesized to influence the income of the poor rural households,
Hypotheses to be lested:
2a. Sourceb of income are expected to be dominated by nonhuman capital. 2b. The level at local industrialization is expected to have an impact on the sources of income.
c. Lanuless workers are expected to be the most seriously disdivantaged with respect to resource endowment and employment alternatives.
MICHIGAN STATE-SIERRA LEONE. Incomes of rural households will be classified according to its origin from farm sources, nonfarm sources and labor sales. An attempt will be made to explain the present pattern ot income diistribution ir terms of Va) regional location, (b) access to land, (c) household size, (d) type or cropping system, (e) participation in nonfarm activities and (f) type of production tcnotgy. Analvsis of variance and covariance procedures will be used to quantity eacn o1 these effects and test hypotheses aoout the determinants o income distrioution in a rural African economy. In addition this analysis will help identify the characteristics of the target group--tinL is, who are the rurat poor? In addition tue access to other services which increase the welfare of the rural poor ;ill be examined. ihese include the availability of schools, medical facilities and ease of communications. Access to these services will be related to location and household income.
Hypotheses to De Tested
1. Under traditional tecnnology, household income is relatively equit able and is largely determined by available family labor, access to markets and suitability of the region for export crops. 2. Participation in nonfarm activities has little impact on the distri bution of nousenold income.
0. Ihigher income households and regions receive more benefits from government services, particularly education.
4. Introduction of new technologies has increased income disparities. -31-
CORNELL-ALL PROJECTS. In the three Asian countries under consideration--the Philippines, India, and Indonesia--a relatively small proportion of total income of rural families is generated from nonfarm activities. The wealth of individual households is dictated oy their command of agriculturai resources. Some income of land-owning farmers is venerated through the sale of family labor. The bulk of income earned by landless laborers is realized through direct employment in farming. Consequently, income differentials are mainly determined Ky land, cropping patterns, and the level ot technology employed.
"ypotnesis to be Tested:
Adoption of a tochnical change in agricultural production such as high yielding seeds, fertilizer, or tractor mechanization will generate increased total output; n'wever, a disproportionate share of this output will accrue to lan owners. 'Specifically, it is hypothesized that a technical change will increase income di stortLlon favoring landlords and worsening the real position of tenant farmers ani landless laborers.
t'nilippines: he basic methodology is developed in such a way that the distribation o1 benefits from new agricultural technology can be analyzed for those directlv iovolved in the production nf rice. The approach used is to examilne the distribution of gains from increased output for the same set of tarmers hefore and after tecnnological chance. Iwo analytical techniques will be emploved: a direct or accounting procedure and production function analysis. In the case of the accounting procedure, the actual level of income for each farm wit se determined befo.re and after tecnnical change. In addition, the components of income accruing to landlords, tenants, and landless laborers will be calculated for the betore-and-after adoption cases. It should be noted that these computations will be baseu on quantities or rice produced, consequently price adjustments will nave to oe made only for cost changes in inputs. P'roduction functions will be fitted to farm data before and after technical change. Tihe coefficients of these production functiois will allow a determination of the gains and losses associated with different inputs as new technology is adopted. A comparison of time two techniques will provide a check ot consistency. More importantly, the comparison will indicate whether the .distribution ol ouLput among the socio-economic classe. is subject to inst tutional arrangements or to the producLivity of inputs.
India: Ie hypothesis will be tested through the procedure of budget analysis. [he total sample of tarms will be divided into two categories--those with tractor mechadmization and those who neither own nor hire tractors. Man-days of work in eaco subset of farms will be decomposed according to aae, sex, and caste. Returns to family and hired labor will be determined on each Jtass of farms to ascertain how mechanization affects various classes of workers. The budgetary analysis will be reinforced by regression analysis on the two farm types.
* * * -.k * * -32-
Objective 3: To analyze the rural labor market with respect to demand/supply behavior, efficiency of the labor market.
PouONtj-BRAZIL. The labor market and farm data will be used to estimate tue parameters ot labor demand and supply equations. (Some of this work has already been done). These results will provide insights into the factors (What Factors? -- LRQl) affe-cting demand and supply and will be combined with the results of ,:st m1nting the income zenerating functions to gain a broader understanding ot factors affectint the income of the rural poor. 'le allocatLn of time snmel will also be used to analyze more directly how members ,t tihe labor torce participate in the labor market. These analyses will be coplenented with the data on the housenold head's knowled:ie and perception of the labor market, what they believe they can earn in nt-ta rm empl:iyment and the availability of Pmplowvent opportunities. Several studies are analyzing thne intersectoral labor market and migration. The surveys collectad life-cycle data wi ich, by means of tabular analysis, can be used to trace out the past migratory patterns of household members. Tabular analysis will also be used to indicate how the members of these poor rural house holds participate in the labor market and the incomes they earn from such act ivi t ies. Present and potential migration of the household head as well as other family members, will be analyzed. Techniques of analysis range from chi-square tests to discriminant analysis and case studies of households over t ime. ,sttmates of the production function will be made as part of other objectives of the study. These functions will furnish estimates of the marginal value product of labor which can be combined with other labor market information and the results from other studies of large farms to evaluate the relative efficiency A the labor marKet.
hypotheses to be Tested:
3a. Substitution effects are expected to outweigh income effects in explaining labor supply of these low income groups.
3b. Technologv in the household is expected to have an impact on labor supplied to market activities.
3c. Tne labor narKet is expected to be efficient within agriculture, but imperfect between agriculture and the nonfarm sector. -33-
MICHIGAN STATE-SIERRA LEONE: The analysis of the rural labor market will be based on the extensive work already completed under the African Rural Employment Project contract. Labor demand has bezn examined in a linear programming model with particular attention to seasonal patterns of labor demand. Total labor inputs by sex and under different farming systems have also been ana]yzed although no attempt has been made to derive a labor supply function formally. -The operation of the rural labor market has also been analyzed by examining factors affecting the rural wage rate. Finally an extensive study of rural-ruban and rural-rural migration including an econometric analysis of th determinants of the rate and direction of migration has been completed.. During the present research the analysis of the rural labor market will be extended in two directions. First, production function analysis will be employed to examine returns to resources--particularly labor and capital- in various household groups and to analyze the demand and supply of labor. In particular an empirically testable model of the household firm will be developed. This model will be a synthesis of Hymer and Resnick's general model of an agrarian economy and Becker's model relating to the allocation of time. A general "household-firm" utility function, which will include leisure, rurally produced goods, imported (urban) goods and household produced goods, will be developed from which a system of labor demand and supply equations will be derived. The resulting system of equations and thus the model will be applied to firm-household data collected from the Sierra Leone stud). The results of the analysis will shed light not oly on the income-leisure cnoice ot rural households and thus the supply response of the rural labor force, but also the demand for labor and the price responsiveness of agricultural and rural nonfarm outputs. Second, the analysis of buying and selling of labor will be extended by more indepth comparison of households who buy labor and households who sell labor. This will enable some conclusions to be drawn concerning the efficiency of the rural labor market in allocating labor both within a region and between regions.
Hypotheses to be 'lested:
3a. It is hypothesized that labor is a critical constraint at certain seasons of the year and that labor supply is responsive to the high opportunity cost of labor at this period. 3b. It is further hypothesized that a relatively efficient labor market exists in rural areas and that the wage rate reflects the opportunity cost of1'bor. 3c. It is hypothesized that unskilled migrants originate in poor rural households and poorer regions but such migration has relatively little impact on rural income disparities since land is not scarce and remittances by migrants are not large.
1/ Derek Byerlee, Joseph L. Tommy and Habib Fatoo, "Rural-Urban Migration in Sierra Leone: Determinants and Policy Implications," African Rural Economy Working Paper No. 12, Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, 1976. -34-
CORI .ILL-ALL PRUJECT. Data from the three Asian countries will allow analysis of several aspects of the efficiency and equity of the labor market. Work in Indonesia and India will bear directly on these questions while the Philippine study will add an important methodological dimension.
ilypothesis to he lested:
It is hypothesized that technical innovations in agriculture will greatly the alter demand/supply relationships of labor provided by farmers having difterent levels of physical and financial assets. Philippines: The production function analysis developed to examine the impact of technology in the Plilippines provides aniopportunity to determine how a technical change in agriculture influence the overall demand for agricultural labor. Production functions were estimated for data on farms prior to their adoption of new hiqu yielding varieties and when they were utilizing relatively smal I amounts of fe rtilizer. The labor parameter of this equation makes it possible to deter.nine the man-hours ot labor required for a given unit of land using traditionLal technology. When a production function is fitted to the same sample of farms after they have modernized, the labor coefficient changes. Tnis change allows computation of how increased use of fertilizer and the adoption ot high yielding varieties influence the amount of labor per unit of land. 'uis information can be expanded t determine how technology affects aggregate demand far labor within a given locale. It is hypothesized that technology in the form of high yielding varieties of seed coupled wito fertilizer will create an increased demand for aggregate agricultural laoor.
Indonesia: 0aily surveys of a sample of households in two Indonesian villages will provide information on many facets of the supply of household labor, particularly as it relates to demographic characteristics of the household, purchasing patterns, and the availability of agricultural production assets. Detailed data will be collectea concerning how each family member spends his or her time in household activities, agricultural activities, marketing activities, and off-farm labor activities. Detailed diary accounts are being -35
assembled on purchases and sales of food and other items for each household. Finally, the data will include an inventory of agricultural production assets. A system of equations will be developed to test 4 specific hypotheses:
Tne lower the asset status of the household:
I. tile higher the proportion of household members seeking nonfarm employment.
2. the lower the wage rates at which individuals will be prepared to accept employment.
3. the greater the sensitivity of household labor allocation and consumption patterns to seasonal fluctuations in wages and prices.
4. the greater the prooaility that the ti-ne spent by women in income earning activities will have negative implications for the health and nutricional status of their young children.
India: Six Indian villages have been selected so that they provide a continuum of tile degree of trictor mechanization. Trie range involves one vii lage where less than 10 percent of the farm operators have tractors to a village where nearly 2/3 of the farmers either own or hire tractors. Analysis ot tie touseholds of Indian villages with high and low levels of mechanization coupled witi the status of landless laborers in these vil[ages will provide valuable insights concerning the role of this forn of technology as a determ inant of the deiaanu/supply aspects of rural labor. Research in tne Philippines concentrated primarily on the demand aspects oL technical change while the Indonesian study focused on the supply of labor available in different rural settings. It is anticipated that the Indian study will amalgamate finoings and research methodologies of the studies in the Piilippines and Indonesia.
It was decided that a recursive model was most appropriate for several reasons:
(1) Agricultural activities are sequential. Decisions are made in a step-wise fashion wito adjustments being made for vagaries or weather, labor bottlenecks, etc.
(2) There is a strong interaction between decisions made at one stage and the resultant adjustment in subsequent work planning.
Toe proposed research methodology may be divided into two broad areas:
(a) factors bearing on the demand for farm labor. These include selection of crops, availability of oullock power and the feasibility of tractor mechanizat ion.
(b) factors bearing on the supply of household labor. These include avail ability of hired labor, cost of hired labor versus opportunity cost of family labor and factors bearing on participation in various agri cultural activities. Objective 3: To analyze the barriers to the increased participation of landless workers in tle development process.
PURUUE-BRAZlL. A major thrust of the Purdue-Brazil project is a study ot labor market participation and houseiold behavior of the rural poor. Landless laborers constituted part of the sample and, with the exception of the rortieast, included sharecroppers, casual workers, and permanent workers. Procedures indicated under Objectives 3 and 5 will be used to analyze these data. Attention will be focused on comparing these groups with the small owners as a means 4t conpario differences in access to employment and income opportunities (Basis for conparison? -- LRI.). It shoud also be noted that particular attention will be given to the role ot tenure arrangements on resource efficiency. Cheung's model of land tenure has been extended by incorporating a formal labor market into tne model. Tis model specicities a market impertection in order to obtain a positively sloped tamily labor supply function. Preliminary results from testing taiis model suggest that, contrary to the usual sharecropping arrange ments, land is provided by the oaner to the tenant as a means of obtaining Lanor for his own farm (How Snown? -- LRII). The implications of this will be pursued in further analysis.
Hypotheses to be Tested:
4a. Lack at access to sources of credit and to other public services is expected to be a barrier to resource accumulation at the house hold level.
40. Lack of opportunities to acquire human capital in the form of schooling and training is expected to limit income an employment opportunities for landless workers.
4c. The economics of education is such as to preclude access by low income groups. -37-
CORNELL-ALL PROJECt. Some level of landless laborers exists in each of the Asian study areas. Barriers to the participation of landless laborers in the developmncnt process will not be researched directly in either the Philippines or Indonesia. The Indonesian data will provide valuable insights concerning the behavior of landless laborers and should complement Purdue's effort relative to how landless laborers may become more valuable members of rural society. In India, lanwvalues are high and many families either lack an adequate land base or tLic financial means to secure additional acreage for a viable crop-based farmn. A trequentlv identifiea activity which uses abundant labor and relatively small amounts of Dwned land is dairying. Similar observations could be made relative to poultry; however, within the study area dairying appears to inave a greater acceptance and likelihood of success. A further factor bearing on the desirability of exploring dairying as a viable option for those witli limited resources is the fact that milk and other dairy products have a ligh elasticity ot demand. As incomes rise it would appear that demand for added milk output will increase markedly. A final thrust of this research will be to examine if dairving and the distribution of dairy products is econonically feasible. it is hypothesized that dairying Drovides a viable alternative for those who do not nave sufficient resources to engage in full time crop production or alternately w1ose labor has been displacea by the use of tractor mechanization. A survey ot small dairy units will be made. Hoefully cross-sectional analysis will be possiule on farms of differing sizes ann farmers who purchase and trade labor for fodder and feed which they cannot produce on owned land. A possimle extension of this analysis may be to determine how dairying could be fitted into the main sample of farmers under consideration. liere, a recursive system mnay be employed wnere fodder crops are a substitute for tood crops. 'lie resulting analysis will provide insights as to whether a dairy enterprise would add to the utilization of family labor and be comple mentary to tne adoption of technical changes such as tractor mechanization.
Objective 5: To develop and test models to measure the impact of technical change on output, income, and employment of poor rural firm-households. -38-
PURDUE-BRAZIL. A number of projects will contribute to an evaluation of the effects of technical change and other rural development programs on resource use, factor productivity, household incomes, and income distribution. Programming models of representative farms have been or will be developed for each of the regions. In some instances, these models have been modified to study a specific problem of regional importance. For example, risk has been explicitly considered in the Northeast. Changes in the parameters of these models (by means of parametric programming) provide a basis for introducing changes in production technology. The data will also be used to estimate the parameters of conventional production functions by ordinary least squares procedures. These will provide a basis for understanding the functional distribution of income, although complementary analyses using other procedures will also be used. A "frontier" production function can be described with the observations from farms attaining maximum technical efficiency in their use of resources. The parameters of this envelope production function can be estimated by established procedures involving the use of linear programming. A comparison of the frontier production function with the conventional or "average" production function can be used to understand the consequences of attaining a higher level of technical efficiency. In this respect, a comparison of the upper with the lowr frontiers or envelopes can provide especially valuable information. The development and testing of procedures and methodologies whereby these frontier production functions can be used to analyze the impact of technical changes is an important contribution of the proposed research. Partial budgeting and other types of analysis will also be used to analyze some of the proposed technologies. Data were also collected on the sources of information and level of knowledge of farmers with respect to technology. And finally, income generating functions are being estimated to gain an under standing of the composition of income and the contribution of various factors to generating that income. The use of modern inputs will be considered as one factor affecting the income of the family.
Hypotheses to be Tested:
5a. The adoption of modern inputs is expected to increase output and income so long as general equilibrium effects are ignored. 5b. The adoption of modern inputs is expected to shift the functional distribution of income according to whether the technology represented by these inputs is land augmenting or labor augmenting. 5c. The effect of technical change on employment will depend importantly on whether it is land or labor aguienting, and on whether general equilibrium effects are considered.
MICHIGAN STATE-SIERRA LEONE.
Budgeting and programming procedures will be used to compare the incomes and returns to labor of households using different crop production systems and technologies. Efforts will be made to identify beneficiaries of new technology on the basis of household labor stocks and seasonal labor demands. Furthermore conflicts between efficiency and equity will be explored by evaluating social and private benefits of a particular policy -39
or project using marKet prices and prices corrected for taxes, subsidies and work by Spencer other distortions sucit as tile exchange rate. Preliminary of technical and 15yerlee has already evaluated the impacts of two types changes in Sierra Leone on output and labor use.l/ The firm-housenoLi model described above wiTl be applied to diffrent to predict groups of households representing different production systems For example, which housenolis are likely to benefit from technical change. identify where all understanding ot labor supply response will enable us to technologies. labor is likely to be a constraint to the adoption of new
Hypotheses to De lested: there Tile major hypotnesis to be tested for Objectives 5 and 6 is that of new is little conflict between efficiency and equity in the introduction hypothesis agricultural technologies in West African agriculture. A further labor will be is that technologies whico increase returns to peak season most rapidly adopted.
contri CURW.ELL-ALL PROJECTS. it is anticipated that one of the major useful in butions of the Cornell research will be development of methodology on employment by measuring tile impact of technicai changes in 4;oriculture class ol workers ano returns to specific fa,,cors of production. valuable Pnilippines: Property specitied production functions can provide for the same set of insights into the distribution of gains from increased output it is hypothe tarmers belore and after technological change. Specifically, function can sized thiat variants of tile Constant Elasticity of Substitutions to more than be developed whico will allow measurement of shares accruing two factors of production and examine factor substitution. (CES) and Tills study useS variants of Constant Elasticity of Substitution and estimates Variable Elasticity of Substitution (VES) production function different pairs of tile following three concepts of input substitution for inputs. effect in (1) Partial elasticity of substitution which measures the of another the quantity of one input (A) of a change in the price input, (6) when the quantity of output and prices of all other inputs (A, C, 0, etc.) are held constant.
as the ratio (2) Uirect elasticity of substitution whicn is defined a per between a percentage change of the factor proportion and
Labor 1/ Dunstan S. C. Spencer and Derek Byerlee, "Technical Change, paper pre- Use and Small Farmer Development: Evidence from Sierra Leone," sented to AAEA Meetings, Pennsylvania State University, 1976. -40
centage change of the mareinal rate of substitution keeping all other inputs and the output constant.
(3) hicks coefficient whiclh registers the effect on the price of one input (A) ot a change in the quantity of another input, (B) where the marginal cost (price of output) and quantities of all other inputs (A, C, D, etc.) are held constant.
The aoove concepts will also be estimated by using the cost function approach. Then a critical examination of the production function approach and tile cost function approach will be made.
India:
(a) demand for Farm Labor. The demand for farm labor is closely linked to decisions concerning the allocation land to various enterprises. An important de cision concerning fariniig practices, Darticularly relative to the trade-off of bullock, tractor and human labor must be emphasized. Farmers are presumed to make decisions on the allocation land among various crops at the beginning ot the year. It is deemed important to differentiate be tween the area of a given crop grow, -rriation. is t major food grain crop grown. Rice requires intensive plowine and other land preparation activities whicn must be done in a short period of time. Tlhus the area under rice nay be influenced by tractor availability which may also divert acreage to otner food grains. So the net ettect of tractor availability on food grain production ,nust take into account acreage shifts among different food-grain crops. Double cropping is important in this area and is a contributing factor to the need for a recursive model. Tocal acreage available for the second crop is de termined by subtract ing the area employed for perennial and annual crops (for example bananas and sugar cane) from total arable acres as determined for the initial round of land allocation. In addition to tractor mec-anization fertilizer use also influences crop se lection and hence demand for labor in aggregate and seasonally. building on the above analysis i.e. crop allocation, mechanization , and ferti lizer use, we are in a position to formulate an equation representing the demand for all labor, family ann hired, usea on the farm.
(b) Supply of iamily Labor. Supply of family labor is determined by a complex set ot nouseaotd exogenous factors. Data relating to these will be collected for the same group of farms. We estimate the availability of household labor from variables indepenuent of those influencing demand. The difference between total labor required and family labor supplied will be indicative of the amount of labor to be hired. An important hypothesis involved is that the interconnectivitv of enterprise decisions and technology adopted will bear directly on the proportion of household and hired labor. More specitically, technical changes which increase the income of those who co-mmand assets will lead to a reduction in their family's participation in farm labor and hence to a-, increase in demand for ihired labor. -41-
Ubjective 6. To analyze the constraints to the adoption of new pro duction technology.
PURDUE-BRAZIL. A number of different procedures and sets of data will be used to analyze tie constraints to the adoption of new production tech nology. In the first place, a number of questions on the questionnaire attempted to identity why farmers did or did not use modern inputs. These will be tabulated and used to suggest specific hipotheses for further testing. TIe programming model can also be used to test the profitability of partic ular modern inputs or activities under different price relatives. In the Northeast, special attention is being given to the problem of weather-induced risk and uncertainty and the formal and informal insurance schemes that farmers use to protect themselves against such risks and uncertainties. Special attention will be given to the role of labor market, the availability of creuit to small holders and to the availability of modern inputs. In some cases procedures will involve little more than tabulation of data, in other cases more formal models will be used.
Hypotheses to be Tested:
6a. The lack of schooling and communications skills are important barriers to to tile adoption of new production technology.
6b. Tle failure to adopt the production technology to the resource endowment of the farmer is an impediment to its adoption.
6c. The labor market as well as the credit market imposes important con straints to tile adoption of production technology.
lICHIGAN S rATE-SIERRA LEONE. In Sierra Leone farmers were questioned to de termine what technologies they had adopted, when the technology was adopted and the cost and sources of capital for that adoption. Also in one area where a new project has been established farmers were stratified according to those who partic ipated in the project and those who did not participate. Finally farmers were asked about an array of new technologies to determine their level of inornation concerning the technology and reasons for not adopting that technology. These data will be analyzed to determine the characteristics of farmers who readily adopt technologies and the types of technologies which have been most rapidly adopted. Furthermor- new technologies which are not currently in widespread use (such as new upland rice seed) will be analyzed using budget and linear programming to analysis determine factors, particularly seasonal labor shortages, which constrain adoption of new L_ hniques.
Hypothesis to be Tested:
The major hypotnesis to be tested is that farmers have information about new technologies but that most existing technologies are not suited to the factor en dowments, particularly tie seasonal labor shortage, and are therefore not widely adopted. -42-
CORGELL-ALL ?ROJEC1'. In Asia, it is generally conceded that a paucity of arable land is a major constraint to increased agricultural productivity and rural weltare. It then becomes imperative to maximize yield per hectare and a high premium is placed ol tile role which improved technology may play in maximizing output per unit of lana. Data collected in Indonesia and India will be used to identify barriers associated with tile adoption of agricultural technology.
Indonesia: The indonesian Agro-Econonic Survey provides evidence concerning the rate ot technical change in the area surrounding Bogor. Two villages have been selected for intensive study, one of which has remained traditional while the other has adopted several improved farming practices. In each village, two case families will be examined in .n effort to pin-point why technology is adopted or alternately why technology which would apparently be yield-increasing and profitable nas not been adopted. The researcn will concentrate on tle roles which household labor and the health ot household members play in adopting technology. Two broad nypotheses will be tested:
1. Laoor bottlenecks associated with the inability of family labor to provide adequate work at critical times coupled with the lack of available funds for hiring lauor provide a severe impediment to the adoption of new technology. This may be accentuated when the extended family provides labor only at harvest time in return for a share of the crop, but is unavailable at other periods during the production cycle.
2. Some new tecnnology may not increase the demand for aggregate labor beyond the capacity or tne family to provide work. However, it may alter the timing and amount ot laoor traditionally supplied by men and women. Some technology may increase tne demand for female labor, such as transplanting rice, beyond their capacity to provide this quantity of labor and men are unwilling to participate in this phase of tne production process.
India: Even thougn many farm level studies have been conducted in India, there is a dearth of knowledge concerning certain aspects of costs and benefits involved in enterprise combinations and the adoution of new technology. Careful analysis often reveals that non-adopters are acting in an economically rational way when they reject the use ot new teconology even if credit and other insti tutional factors are availaole. Several representative farms will be selected which have not adopted tractor mechanization. Linear Programming and/or simple budgeting will be used to determine if, given existing farm conditions, the choice not to adopt technology was reasonable. lt is hypothesized that non-adoption of tech ,ology is frequently economically rational -- the implication being that the technology was not suited for existing conditions. -42a-
Objective 7. To develop and test policy models for analysis of the aggregate direct and indirecL effects of trade, taxation, and domestic agricultural policies on total welfare and the welfare of the rural poor.
PURUUE-BRAZlL. The main emphasis of the work on Objective 7 will be on com paring trade policies as a means of extracting the "surplus" from agriculture with alternative means such as income taxes and land taxes. This comparison re quires the construction of formal analytical models that permit an analysis of the incidence and eticiency of the specific explicit and implicit taxes, and th-ir adaptation to the the Brazilian system and conditions. The analysis of incidence provides a means of understanding the impact of such taxes on the functional distriution of income. these models will be evaluated with aggregate data from the Brazilian economy. Once this is done, an attempt will be made to link the analysis to representative farns synthesized from tile sample data. -43-
Data tapes have recently been acquired from the Federal Income Tax Service in Brazil. These data will show the extent to which different size groups of farms pay income taxes, and will serve as a basis of part of the comparative study. A recent study by the Instituto de Pesquisas Economicas (IPE), one of the collaborating institutions in the study, made an ana-ysis of the existing land tax in Brazil. This study provides a basis for determining who pays the land tax, as well as its effect on equity and efficiency in comparison to the other two policies (Taxes? -- LHM). The programmin- models from other parts of the study will also be used to analyza the consequences of alternative price policies, both on the input and output side. These mo-dels will also probably serve as the link with the analysis of trade policy.
Hipothpses to be Tested:
7' Trade policy is expected to be a relatively inefficient way of siphoningu income from ariculture ir that it is expected to have strong (liSil~iw.fltiV effects on production. 7b. Relative to other alternatives, trade policy is expected to force the burden of adjustment on the labor force. 7c. An effective land tax is expected to have a smaller resource allocation effect than the other means of extracting the surplus from agriculture.
MICHIGAN STATE-SIERRA L7,(417:.
The focus of this analysis will be on the indirect benefits of agricultural policies particularly the introduction of new technology and pricing policy. The methodology for measuring indirect benefits will be based on modi fications and application of a series of pclicy modTs of Sierra Leone developed by the Rural Employment Research Project.:-J Two major modifi cations are necessary: (1) the rural population must be disaggregated by income class to be able to test the indirect effects on different income groups and also account for varying consumption patterns of rural consumers, and (2) the rural economy model must be formally linked to the macroeconomic model and a demographic-migration model to trace explicitly the indirect effects of projects on various 7roups of the population. This model system will enable a comprehensive analysis of linkages including sector linkages within agriculture (e.g., food and export crops), between agricultura; and non agricultural sectors and between the rural and urban sectors.?) Several types of sectoral linkages will be analyzed including (a) backward and forward linkages of projects and policies, (b) linkages arising from consumer
i_/ Hartwig de Haen, Derek Byerlee and Dunstan S. C. Spencer, "Preliminary Formulations of Policy Models of the Sierra Leone Economy Emphasizing the Rural Sector," African Rural Employment Pa-'er No. 3, Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, 1974. / Modeling of linkages and measurement of indirect effects will be based on Byerlee's work in Nigeria, but in the case of Sierra Leone will include a vastly improved data base. See Derek Byerlee, "Indirect Employ ment and income Distribution Effects of Agricultural Development Strategies: A Simulation Approach Applied to Nigeria," African Rural ,,ployment Paper No. 9, Department of Agricul _ral Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, 1973. -44
expenditure of incomes induced by projects and policies and (c) labor market linkages arising out of rural-urban and rural-rural migration. As far as possible the magnitcde of the indirect effects arising from each of these linkages will be separately measured. furthermore, various policies and projects idencitti a on the basis of micro-level analysis as having favorable direct effects on tie rural poor will be fed into the model to determine their indirect e tvct.s on :littreILt income eroups. Cn this basis, the conlitions under which it might De necessary to measure indirect benefits will be sp.cii ied and methodologies developed to do this under alternative assumptions about availaible data and resources (General Equilibrium Effects?- Li(t ).
ttypothesos to e lested:
One hypoties i. to be tested is that policies and projects which have the larr.st direct benfits for the rural poor also have the largest indirect benefits [or thre poor--ota ur'/ and urban. Evidence that labor intensive strategies that inrast' tMe incoms ol the rural poor have stroi backward linkages to tire rural noritarm SMLor (suci as blacksmithing), promote consumption of labor intensive cnnm'noditis and rducu rural-urban migration, is available to partially Support this hiypuotLnsin bit has not been analyzed in an integrated manner. A second nyp"tliesis is tlit tie most i':portant indirect effect ot a rural development projct or policy occurs tiirci gu the consumption expenditures of those directly affected 0v tie prnject or policy. If this is true, then alternative policies ratSC to the incomes at the rural poor will have similar indirect benefits. Sihld thoese hypotheses be supported by empirical analysis, the conditions underl wriici indirect beneftis are important in project appraisal and policy analysis will be identified.
CURNELL-ALL PRoJECIS. l'he Philippine, Indonesian, and Indian studies are not directed explicitly towards the devwlopment of models which examine macro level de cision making such as the impact of tariffs, currency devaluation, or taxation. One r' the strengths ot the Purdue-lichi an State-Cornell proposal is that the inter connectivity ot data, mej"odology, and research thrust are reinforcing. The micro level analysis conducted in three Asian countries will provide valuable insights con cernting interpretatian of macro level analysis completed by researchers working in other countries. "7"***'°* k-A
Objective 6. To identity policy and institutional changes to further the participation of the rural poor in, and their benefits from, the development process.
PUROUE-BRAZIL. The key to identifying policy and institutional changes to further the participation oF the rural poor in, and their benefits, from, the development process is in (1) understanding the behavior of such family units (2) understanding the environment in whici they seek employment and income opportunities, including the barriers and opportunities they face, and (3) devising institutional changes and policies ;hat will reduce the barriers and expand the opportunit is. The attaimient of Objectives I through 7 should provide the means for answerin, these questions. In attempting to identify the policy arid institutional changes reqcired, particular attention will be given to educational and training policies, to policies having to do with the dittiusion of suitaoie new production technology among such groups, to -45-
Labor market policy, to changes in the agrarian structur and to the role of aggregate or nacroeconomic policies. An attempt will ui. made to show the consequences and i-npact ot the policy changes proposed.
Hypotheses to oe lested:
da. Tie simple redistribution of land is expected to be a costly way of improving the welfare of the poor, even in areas where land ownership is highly concentrated.
8b. The opening of access to public services is expected to be a useful means of improving the lot of the rural poor.
8c. Viable solutions to tile problems of low incomes in agriculture are expected to be found more in the nonfarm sector than in the farm sector.
MICtIlGAN STATE-SI1.RRA LEUNE.
ine results from the emirco-economic analysis of rural houselhold-farms and the rural labor inarket, and the aggregate analysis of intersectoral linkages will be synth sized to identity and recommend policies to benefit the rural poor.
CUikiNUhL-A.L tFROJECI'. One of tie most puzzling aspects associated with program designed to assist low income farmers and the rural poor in developing nations is why seemingly sou ,d Leciinical innovations are not utilized. Increasing interest has been focused on an appraisal of "what farmers perceive as their needs" as opposed to what teconicians and we wrno operate outside of their environment feel is appropriate Farm Level researci conuuctea in Asia will attempt to identify impediments to agri cultural modertlizatioa froi tne perspective of tihe cultivator. A second and equally important objective ot this research will be to determine with precision how the benefits of agricultural tecinology are distributed amongst various social and economic classes and factors of production. Improved knowledge in these areas should lead to a :aore accurate blueprint of viable development strategies. -45a
1L. STATUS OF THE RESEARCH AND PLANS OF WORK.
PURUUE
As of July 1, 197b esseatiallv ll of the primary daca for Brazil have been coliected except for some specific information which may be needed as the research proceeds. Data from the first questionnaire have been coded, tabulated anu transferred to computer cards or tape. Processing and editing of tae data from the seconui and third questionnaire are currently under way and shotl.I be conmpleted by he institutions involved by later 1976. Data have been collected for Project Puebla in Mexico an other areas will De surveyed oy June 30, 1977 if present negotiations work out. This study will einpiiasize tne role of the labor market in tie adoption of technology. In August:, 197b, a research anJ planning seminar is being held in Fortalize, Ceara with respect to the Brazilian portion of the study. Th is seminar has the objective of 1) presenting recent research results by the collaboraLing instiLutlons, 2) presenting preliminary drafts of the normative documents to be completed for the Brazilian government by July 1977 and 3) identitying gaps in the analysis hick, is being carried out. The Purdue stafLt is preparing papers for this seminar. At least one of the Mexican coLlauorators will be participating in the seminar. -46-
Two Ph.D. dissertations and one M.S. thesis are now under way at Purdue. One of the Ph.D. dissertations (Mauro Lopes) is conducting an analysis of trade and development policy as a means of siphoning the "surplus" from agriculture and its impact on the small farm sector, compared to alternative fiscal devices such as an effective income tax or a land tax. A second Ph.D. thesis (Ignez Lopes) is analyzing the use of time data in a labor market context. Her analysis will involve an inter-regional comparison. One M.S. thesis (Cathy Jabara) also is using the economics of time data, with special emphasis on the opportunity cost of time, education, and participation in the labor market. The second M.S. thesis (Brenda Newell) is analyzing present and potential migration of the head of the household and other family members. All four students are working essentially full time on their projects. During the September 1976 to March 1977 period, emphasis will be given to completing the studies currently in progress and performing the analysis necessary to complement the on-going research. In March 1977, another con ference will be held to provide further input into the normative documents being prepared for the Brazilian government. Preparation of the data in forms which will facilitate exchange among the collaborating institutions will be emphasized. It is anticipated that analysis during the July 1977 to June 1978 period will emphasize inter-regional studies which seek to make a comparative analysis of the sample groups among regions. Hypotheses generated from the tabulation and analysis of one region can be tested with data from the other regions of Brazil. Such comparisons will identify differences in behavior, as well as identify differences in the constraints faced by the low income groups. Of particular interest in this comparison will be whether the stage of development represented by the different regions in Brazil has any influence on the barriers faced by and the opportunities available to the groups studied. It is also expected that the Mexican data can be analyzed to test hy potheses similar to those tested in Brazil. Testing over this broad range of socio-economic and ecological conditions will indicate to what extent the problems of the rural poor differ with these factors. During the July 1978 to June 1979 period, emphasis will be given to completion of analyses in progress and preparation of publications. These publications will be of several types--those reporting research procedures and results to professional groups, publications designed to meet the needs of government policy makers and international donor agencies and a publication which will synthesize the entire Purdue-Brazil-Mexico research thrust to form a section of the final report of this research project. Background. The research to be undertaken under the leadership of Schuh and Patrick utilizes data previously collected with Ford Foundation support and complements work that will be undertaken simultaneously by several Brazilian institutions. The Puidue work focuses on factors affecting small farmers' decisions while most of the work undertaken by the Brazilian policy research groups will be related to broader agricultural pL 'cy questions. This Purdue proposal is not a continuation of the Ford Foundati)n work which was primarily concerned with field data collection for use by the Brazilian institutions. The Brazilians are expected to continue that work on their own. The Purdue project will use previously collected data to focus on questions about small farmers which are highly relevant to AID's concern for the rural poor. -47-
The work at Purdue and in associated Brazilian institutions constitutes a broad-based study of tile rural poor in Brazil. As noted above, detailed data were collected on: (1) the agricultural production systems of small farmers and sharecroppers, to include availability and use of existing production technology, factors affecting or impeding its adoption, use of credit, impact of time systems, and marketing problems; (2) the economics of the household unit, including use of time, assets owned, and consumption; and (3) the labor markeL and how members of tihe households participate in it. With sucn a broad range oI data, no one conceptual model can be used to analyze it. A paper, "The Current State ot Economic Theory tor tile Explanation of Subsistence Agriculture," was presented at a seminar held in Brazil to initiate research on tile project, and has served as a broad guideline for the overall study. Similarly, tie number on institutions and individuals collaborating on the project is large. This makes it difficult to indicate in detail the specitic research procedures tnat each study will be using. In many cases individual studies are being developed as dissertation research in graduate pi'ograms in economics, agricultural economics, annl rural sociology in Brazil and at Purdue. in addition, Purdue will supply one faculty member essentially full-time and a full-time tecnnician to analyze the data, together with the Project Leader and other staff. in the following discussion an attempt is made to lay out the general procedures that 4ill be used to analyze the data. These general procedures tall far short of indiicating the riclness of the procedures that are involved in individual studies. decause of the collaborative number of the project, the Purdue stair has been reluctant to impose a rigid methodology on colla borators. In fact, we believe a strength of tile project is the creativity it nas attempted to promote in analytical design and formulation of the problem. The diversity ot approaches will in addition permit some comparison of approaches to the research problem. It was iniherent in tile overall design of the project, however, that the comparison of regions covered--each of which represents different ecological conditions and states of development--would be an important output of the study, since it would provide a means of analyzing how different regional institutions and different ecological conditions influence tile nature of the povery encountered. Hence, a certain uniformity in the analytical procedures will be required to facilitate the comparison. Xn attempt will also ne made to establish some uniformity with the studies at Cornell and Michigan State. It was also agreed early in the project tnat a major share of the com parative work would oe done at Purdue. Most of this analysis is yet to be done, as is the comparison of the small-farm operations and problems with the large farms.
MICkIGA4. As of September 197 all data have been collected and analysis of the data with respect to migration and employment completed under the African Rural tl.mployment Researcn Project. Very little new data will be collected under the present contract although some changes are necessary in the data storage system to assemble tile various data on consumption, production, migration, etc. -46
to provide an integrated set of data on each household in the survey to enable detailed analysis of income distribution.
Stage I - September, 197o - March, 1977. a. Review ot relevant literature and specification of the household firm decision making model. Write up of working paper on overall conceptual framework and distribution to AID, Cornell and Purdue for comments in Marco, 1977. b. Further editing and assembly of data to put it in a form suitable for analysis on a firin-ousehold basis. Completion set for larch, 1917. Stage it - Marco, 197o - September, 1977 a. Tentative analysis of data to achieve Objectives I to 6. Preliminary write up and distribution to AID, Cornell and Purdue for comments. b. Specification of aggregate policy model.
Stage Ili - September, 1977 - June 1978 a. Completion of micro-economic analysis for Objectives 1 to 6. b. Application of aggregate policy model. c. write up of preliminary MSU report.
btage IV - June, 19?u Collaorat ion witi Purdue and Cornell in writing final report. Principal investigators at each stage will be Derek Byerlee and Dunstan Spencer, each of whom is budgeted to spend half time on the project for the next two years. Carl Either and Carl Liedholm will also participate in the design aim execution of the project. Finally two research assistant are currently employed by the project under the supervision of Dunstan Spencer and Derek Byerlec.
background. The existing MSU project on rural employment in West Africa was reviewed December 5, 1975 at East Lansing. It was decided at that time that the present project would be completed on schedule and closed out in September 197b. During tile review, however, it became apparent that a wider range ot data had been coliecteu than originally anticipated and that the couLd data be used to analyze a number of topics not included under tie present contract witn MSu. The attaciiea proposal is not a continuation of the existing 'ISU project but an entirely new project which is to be coordinated witii the Cornitl and Purdue projects. The project will utilize the data collected previously oy MSU to answer a new set of questions. Very little new data will be collected.
CORNELL
7 I. As of July, 19 o all data relating to the Philippine section of the work have been analyzed and written up in Ph.D. dissertation form. Dr. Randolph Barker of tile International Rice Research Institute provided valuable assistance in the collection, analysis, and interpretation of the data. -49
be completed by October 1, work in Indonesia is expected to 2. Field data has been transferred a significant proportion of the 1976. At present, computed. It is anticipated and some preliminary relationships to punch cards by June 1, 1977. analysis of the data will be concluded that a complete by December, 1977. in thesis format should be completed Write-tip in India will be completed anticipated that the field work 3. It is on punch cards and At this time, all data should be in March of 1977. of Professor D. L. analysis completed with the assistance preliminary Tirupati. The Indian data will Narayana of Sri Venkateswara University, 1977 with write-up in thesis format be completely analyzed by September, by March, 1978. completed 1977 through June 30, 1978 it is 4. During the period September, publi will be prepared. Three of these anticipated that four publications policy the needs of AID mission directors, cations will be written to serve fourth in the three host nations. The planners and interested scholars such a entire Cornell research thrust in publication will synthesize the of the final project manuscript. way that it will form a subsection a continuation undertaken at Cornell is in part Background. The work to be of John Cornell which was under the direction of a previous contract with the statement for Cornell will be under Mellor. The attached project part of as discussed earlier, will become direction of Daniel Sisler and, a coordinated set of studies.
X. OVERALL COST ESTIMATES by AID, IRRI, Michigan costs of this project will be borne The full will pay a substantial portion and Purdue. The other agencies State, Cornell will be accomplished by of the U.S. participants. This of the salaries by having existing or ongoing up research on the project in progress, picking by budgetary allocations, prepared for inclusion in this project here. research research to the issues under study and by adapting the results of other will be much greater than is represented The total cost of all the work done by the costs shown here. of the Cornell, Purdue, and MSU sub Estimates for the combined costs projects are as follows: 1978-79 1975-76* 1976-77 1977-78 $74,048 $ 3,000 Cornell $32,515 $104,052 99,580 94,360 73,960 Purdue 3000 97,490 87%556 M.S.U. $255,964 $79,960 Total $32,515 $301,122 *For 4/1/76 through 6/30/76 State and Cornell are shown on Detailed budgets for Purdue, Michigan the next two pages. Proposed Purdue Budget
Category 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79
Salaries & Wages $41,710 $43,750 $32,275 Consultant Fees 2,500 2,000 2,000 Overhead 28,570 29,960 22,105 Travel & Transportation* 13,500 7,000 7,500 Field Research Expenses and Per Diem 3,300 2,450 1,680 Data Processing 4,000 3,000 2,000 Materials and Supplies 2,500 2,700 2,900 Other Direct Costs 3,500 3,500 3,500
TOTAL $99,580 $94,360 $73,960
* Includes travel expenses for leaders and selected research workers to attend annual meeting with other sub-project personnel and AID personnel.
Proposed Michigan State Budget
Category 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79
Salaries & Wages $48,470 $43,510 -- Fringe benefits 8,240 7,397 -- Overhead 31,020 27,846 -- Consultant Fees 1,000 1,000 -- Travel & Per Diem* 7,800 5,000 $ 3,000 Data Processing 6,000 3,000 -- Publications -- 4,000 -- Other Direct Costs 3,200 3,200 -- Workshops ......
TOTAL $105,730 $94,953 $ 3,000
* Includes $9,000 for travel expenses to attend meetings with AID project managers. Proposed Cornell Budget
A.* B. C. D. E. Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected budget budget budget budget budget Fr: 7/1/75 Fr: 4/1/76 Fr: 4/1/76 Fr: 7/1/77 Category To: 3/31/76 To: 7/1/76 To: 7/1/76 To: 7/1/78
Salaries and Wages $50,890.00 $18,280.00 $52,400.00 $37,600.00
Consultant Fees** 2,280.00 0 5,000.00 5,000.00 -
Overhead 30,904.45 10,835.20 31,611.60 22,748.00
Travel and Transportation*** 3,631,40 400.00 6,000.00 6,000.00 $3,000.00
Field Research Expense 2,400.00 800.00 2,100.00 0 -
Allowances 1,500.00 0 1,441.00 700.00 -
Other Direct Costs 6,300.00 1,700.00 4,500.00 1,500.00
Materials and Supplies 1,000.00 500.00 1,000.00 500.00
GRAND TOTAL $98,905.85 $32,515.20 $104,052.60 $74,048.00 $3,000.00
*Part of Contract No. AID/ta-c-1l31, terminating April 1, 1976
**For other sub-projects, as well as the Cornell sub-project.
***Including $9,000 for travel expenses to annual meetings with AID project managers. -52-
General Appraisal - Appraisal of Project and Research Proposal From AID's point of view, this project is one response of the Office of Agriculture, Bureau for Technical Assistance to the Congressional mandate admonishing AID to be more concerned for the poorest people in the LDCs. It marks the initiation of a process to create by means of research an information base fox devising programs to increase the welfare of the rural poor. Because this office accepts the Congressional made wholeheartedly and because our own investigations show that the information base now available is skimpy and entirely inadequate to the task, we attach a very high priority to this particular set of interrelated research proposals. We believe strongly that the results of this research will contribute significantly to the success of the overall agency effort to meet the Congressional mandate.
RESEARCH PROJECT STATEENT
The D.terninant ; of Deveioning Country irri~at~on Project ProbCe6- :
A Th.tifactor Analyr"sis for Irnroved Syctem Operation and Perfor-ance
Contractor: Cornell University
PART IT - Research Project Statament Narrative
PART III - Attachments A10 102,. ,,-.711 LOGICAL FRAMEWORK '4ATRIX - PROP WORKSHEET
Summary O-jectively Ve,,f , iWe Indicators Ir-portont Aitumpt;ons
A.I. G ol A .2. M wo-u,,,,.nof C - I A ,,. , ,n-,nt A .3. (,,. i-, i , ,I.,
To improve the water use efficiency in irri- I. Increased acreages per unit -f irrigation water, 1. LDC's will actively attempt to gated agrictilt.,:ri! and thereby increase improve irrigation system desian. production p7.r unit of water. 2, Decreased waterlogging axid ;slinity problems, 2. Irrigated agriculture will continue 3. Increased production per irrigation system, to be essential to food production especially in highly populated areas of the developing world.
B.I. Pu, ,o ,, 0.2. End a! Poi,,€t Status B.3. (. ., . ;,, - ''') To -_iprove pr,,cedurcs for design and/or Preliminary - Utilization of revised procedures by an reliabillt;,tior. of irrigation systems organization responsible for d!sign and/or operation 1. Sufficient concern will exist in at incorporatinq explicit consideration of irrigation systems. Icast seme design - operation of the Interarutions of critical socio- agencies that there would be a economic fact.rs with the physical Intermediate - Successful application of revised willingness to try revised proce factors. procedures in at least a few esisting systems, dures.
Ultimate - Successful utilizatiln of the revised 2. The procedures would be such that procedure by a significant nu,'".)r of LOC design available or reasonably attain and operat.ional organizations. able InC skills would be required for utilization. C.I. O.1pul. C.2. 00,r~tl~fol C.3. (-.. . .., t....,tt,.,,P 1. Descriptir:n, analysis,'and explanation 1. A set of propositions regarding interrelationships based 1. Appropriate numbers of field sites can of cotrpl',: interactions between on quantitative and qualitative data in form of written be iden1fied and made accessible for physical, b:iolcjical, economic riport and workshop proceedings, detailed r.tudy. and org.: i'.,t0ic nal dimensions of 2, A research design procedure including measurement existinj irrigrtion systems. techniques. 2. Selected sites will represent a range 2. Analytical t,olr and proceduIres for 3. Training workshops complete of conditions appropriate for study the ident-ifir .io,, and analysis of critical 4. A set-of guidelines to be used by designees and project objectives. system it,. rit.,-'. , operators in reviewing the stats of planned or existing 3. Sot of J,.iqg: p;vrameters derived systems. explicitly frri the norlo-economic dimension. 5. An issues discussion and pclLcy alternatives dealing 4. IdontificLfn f elements which relate with water resources and/or acriclitural development as to_ nir--_i n'IJ'. -!i_"_". .! ho 1 fom______. D.1. 1,,r,,, D.2. Sud;,,,/Sck JuI,, D-3. (.,,ve, dt, oip l 1. Q'alificl ccntr,,ctor personnel with Budget/Schedule 1. flighly qualified contractor principal backstoppir.g facility. investigators will remain available. 2. -TO) centr.il funding and project See detailed budget. guilanr:e. 2. LDC's will have personnel and re 3. Pirticip.t-grJ personnel from LDC's sources to support tlhis activity. aind USAIDs Ir, ;.:rks'.opa to plan specific rcs.!irch r'raV'!gics, data collection and analysis, ,rti fe-llow-up seminars to extend resu.tn. RESEARCH PROJECT STATEMENT
SUMMARY
Title: The Determinants of Developing Country Irrigation Project Problems: A Multifactor Analysis for Improved System Operation and Performance
Contractor Cornell University
Status: New Durationi Three years. 1 January 1977--31 December 1979
,Estimated Cost: lst year - .$ 85,000 2nd year - 100,000 3rd year -- 95,000 Total $280,000
Principal Dr. Gilbert Levine, Agricultural Engineer, Leader; Investigators: Dr. M. L. Barnett, Rural Sociologist Dr. E. W. Coward, Rural Sociologist Dr. L. E. Small, Agricultural Economist--Rutgers Univ
Luvjeuu r anager: Dr. Gilbert L. C anaand 1r. L~o -astraf-Ii
Narrative.
Notwithstanding a long history of irrigation, increasing understanding
the basic engineering and agricultural sciences, and massive invest
ments,;many modern irrigation projects encounter major problems. Some
of the problems relate to the physical components of the systems, but
the most serious occur in management and utilization. These aie especially
serious where the systems are supposed to meet small farmer needs, and
equity objectives.
The problems encountered have been serious enough on many projects
that they have altered the course of future governmental policies,
certainly in the area of investment and frequently to the detriment of
small holders. It is the thesis of the proposed research that the causes of these
failures are an inadequate recognition of the critical importance of the
interactions of the socio-economic factors with the physical aspects of
the systems and a lack of understanding of these interactions. The
research proposes first to describe and analyze the interrelationships
of the technology of irrigation with the organizational, economic, social
and cultural aspects. of irrigaton; second it vill attempt to identify
those interactions that'are critical to system success; third, the impli
cations for policy, design and operation will be identified. It is
anticipated that this increased understanding will be incorporated into
a set of analytical and operational procedures designed for use by LDC
planning, design and operations organizaeions. The researcn procedure
will be based upon detailed, interdisciplinary analysis of existing systems
with a range of physical and socio-economic conditions. The studies will
be comparative within country, between country, and between public and
communal systems.
I. RESEARCH PURPOSE AND EXPECTED PRODUCTS
A. There is almost universal rez-guieion that irrigation systems
are "complex interactions of physical, ec rnomic ind social factors.." Yet,
in planning, in design, and in operation iny of these interactions, even
critical ones, are either ignored or only considcied intuitively.
It is the purpose of this proposed research to improve current
methodology for Lhe design of new irrigation systems, far the reha-blita - 3 tion of existing ones and, more generally, foi system wanagement and operation, within the context of the LDC.'s and especially where small holder farming is practiced. This would be achieved through explicit consideration of the interactions of critical social and economic factors with the physical and biological factors.
While primarily aimed at the needs of the developing countries, especially those with severe economic and human resource constraints, it is anticipated that the results will have applicability on a wider scale.
For example, the irrigation problems experienced at the Blackfeet Indian
Reservation, in 'ontana, bear striking similarities to those experienced in the LDC's, and strongly reflect the interaction of the physical system
Ai,,!its ciaemrt -with thi socLo-=conomic cowiciou in the project amea.
The Bureau of Indian Affairs has expressed concern about these problems and is actively looking for solutions.
The ultimate indicator of the achievement of this purpose is improved irrigation system performance. For the purposes of evaluation of this research project a more realistic ultimate indicator would be acceptance of the revised procedures by a significant number of the donor and LDC organizations responsible for the design and/or operation of irrigation systems. Intermediate indication of the achievement of the project purpose would be the successful application of the revised pro cedures to the redesign of at least a few existing systems. Both of these indicators require a relatively long tize for utilization- given the -4
time span between design or redesign and system implementation, and between
.implementation and impact on project performance.
A preliminary indicator of the achievement of the stated purpose
would be the utilization of the revised procedures by any of the organi
zations responsible for design and/cr operation of irrigation systems.
B.- The specific research objectives are:
I. To de.cribc, anayz... d explain the complex interactions
between the physical, biological, economic and organizational dimensions
of existing irrigation systems and the relationships of these factors to
overall system performance.
2. To develop analytical tools and procedures for the identifi
cation and analysis of critical system intaractonst of the type ina=cated
above. These tools and procedures are to be suitable for use by the
Dracticing professionals in the design and operation activities in LDCs.
3. To identify and analyze s:rstem design and operation impli
cations that derive from the explicit consideration of socio-economic
factors and their interaction with physical and biological factors.
4. To identify the planning policy implications. These impli
mn-q-m 1ip In thp areas of:
a. project scale
b. choice of technology
c. degree and forms of farmer participation
d. equity considerations -5-
II. SIGNIFICANCE AND RATIONALE FOR THE RESEARCH
A. Expanded irrigation has been identified as a major factor in the
development of the LDC's, as evidenced in the UTT Indicative World Plan.
Its critical role relative to the world hunger problem was stressed in
the PSAC report on the World Food Supply and more recently at the World
Food Conference. Development of new irrigation projects do cause increases
in production, e e 11 ce it usually llows. for cropping.during a.
dry season where nothing was previously grown. The major works (dams,
canals, reservoirs and delivery system) all represent visible achieve
ment and therefore carry a positive political connotation. Data world
wide, however, indicate that most irrigation systems and practically all
-n the L"C s=al± zar-er setting operate ax: unbelievably low efficiencies.
Not more than 20 percent of the water reaches the crop in many systems.
Governments continue to build systems in this same mold.with encourage-
ment from World Bank, AID, and other major donors.
How to provide good water management from the water source to the
crop root zone in the LDC setting is neither known nor documented.. This
project is designed to address that problem by studying the social,
economic, and technical aspects of existing systems (state-of-the-art).
The objective is to provide a better mechanism for design and operation
of irrigation systems.
This project is targeted directly at'AID's Soil and Water Strategy
(presently being developed). Improved irrigation system design and - 6 operation is a key problem within that strategy. Practically all LDC governments are interested in improving their irrigation management; evidence the more than $100 million directed at water resources management in AID's 1976 budget submission. Results of this project will be extreme ly useful to governments in designing new and renovating old irrigation systems.
B. The research literature abounds with studies of specific technical questions (relating to soils, plants, water, engineering concerns). There are a number of studies of project economics, and some of economic effi ciency in relation to technological changes such as irrigation. Even in the social science literature there are significant numbers of studies re
,Li. LO ,a = as~ci~ttd '..]tirriga.tion, And a few that deal with specific physical components of the irrigation system itself.
But to a very large extent these studies, while considering significant aspects of the complex interrelationships of developing country irrigation, were undertaken from a single disciplinary point of view. In a number of instances the sensitivity of the investigator to the related disciplines has permitted a broader view, with new ins±ghts.
Rarely, however, have interdisciplinary studies of irrigation project problems, especially those in the LDC context,.been undertaken with representatives of the relevant disciplines collaborating closely., Neither have these studies been undertaken with a focus on identifying policy and operational implications. As a result, understanding of interactive effects and their implications for planning, design and operational pro -- 7
cesses is woefully inadequate. This is especially true for understanding
of sociological implications and their interactions with the physical
aspects of the systems. These interactions are important both in terms
of the anticipated onerations of the systems and in terms of the antici
pated consequence.; of project investment.
IV. PLANS TO COCD N.E TO LI2-K RESEAP.CH--ILICLUDIC NETWTORKS
Since the emphasis is on real-world systems, active cooperation of
the governmental agencies responsible for irrigation is essential.
Working contact already exists betueen the proposed contractor and the
National Irrigation Administration (NIA) in the Philippines, the Muda
River Devalopment Authority and the Div~sinn of Irrigation and Drainage
in Malaysia and the Royal Irrigation Department in Thailand.- Contacts
have been made with relevant agencies in Indonesia, though working re
lationships have not been established. The proposed contract has close
relationships with.the staff of the Agro-Economic Survey of Indonesia.
Research coordination with these action agencies would facilitate the
research project in a number of ways, including: the identification of
systems for study, the provision of needed background information, collabo
ration in the collection of certain field data, discusssion of preliminary
findings and interpretations and collaboration in the development of
workshops and other arrangements for the dissemination of research findings
The contractor.has established liuikages with the academic institutions
in thea countrie.i through fpravi0US researnh ac-.t-i-'" s o' "a zJLUzonentCZ. -8-
In the Philippines, close relationships exist with faculty at the Uni versity of the Philippines, at Dilliman and Los Banos. Important among
these is contact with Dr. Senen M. Miranda of the Department of Agri cultural Economics, and advisor to the NIA and research leader in the
area of water resources with the Philippine Council of Agricultural
Research. Similar relationships exist with the Institute of Philippine
Culture (IPC), a social scLance research unit of tho Atcnco dc Manila
and the Social Science Research Unit of the Ateneo de Naga. The IPC is
collaborating with the NIA on a survey of communal systems in the
Philippines with support from the Ford Foundation.
In Malaysia working relationships exist with the Agricultural Uni versity at Serdang and the Science University of Malaya in Penang. In.
Thailand collaboration could be developed with Kasetsart University
(both its engineering and social science departments) and several other
universities including: Chulalongkorn, Thammasat, Kong Kaen and Chieng
Mai. Each-of these institutions contain faculty and graduate students in
the agricultural and social sciences relevant to the research project.
Their collaboration would be sought for the purposes of exchanging in
formation on current irrigation research in the area,'to obtain peer
review of proposed research designs and strategies, to participate in the
collection of needed field data and to review findings and preliminary
interpretations. Collaboration in the collection of field data may be achieved through partial support from project funds for the work of local
graduate students.
The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) is expanding its
research in the w.ater management field and close working relationships
exist between the proposed contractor and the research staff and admini
stration at IRRI. Discussions have already been held with the Director
of the Institute, Dr. N.C. Brady; with Dr. R. Barker of the Department
of Agricultural Economics and with Dr. T. Wickham of the new Department
of Water Management. Close collaboration is further assured both within
the Philippines and other countries of the region as IRRI's water manage ment research expands.
it is anticipated that this research ,ill be related to the activities
of the regional network on irrigation research supported by the Agricul
tural Development Council. This network represents an important.group of
Asian researchers and others concernad with the improved operation of
irrigation systems.
Asian researchers represented in the network are an important source of
information on irrigation research and a significant group for future research efforts on this topic. They will be used for purposes of re viewing research plans and strategies and as analyzed data becomes available as an important forum for the early presentation of findings and interpretations. Their ability to discuss the findings in the context of their broad collective research experience will be of great value in
the final reporting of results. - 10 -
Two important U.S. groups dealing with LDC irrigation issues are the
Consortium for Interntional Development and the Food Institute of the
East-West Center. Faculty associated with CID can perform useful consult
ing roles regarding research methcOologies, the final interpretation of
results and the development of policy recommendations. Their participa
tion in the development of the final international symposium will be
very helpful. The Focd InF itute has considerable experience with
presenting research findings to system managers and operators and useful
collaboration with them for the purposes of translating research findings
into instructional materials is envisioned.
Colorado State University in their AID supported research project in
iakist. 7a ea-i.aflly dalineated social and technical prob!=-s associated
.with the on-farm aspects of that irrigation system. CSU counsel will be
sought in design of the detailed work plan and their data and collection
techniques reviewed carefully and used where applicable.
V. PLANS TO FACILITATE UTILIZATION OF RESEARCH RESULTS
Four phases for facilitating the utilization of the results are
anticipated: (a) irrigation department conferences; (b)planning and
reporting workshops; (c) international symposium; and (d) other profes
sional meetings dealing with problems of technology, food, and agricultura'
development. - 11 -
Experience has shown that periodic progress reports to the local irrigation department staff, both at the system level and at the top administrative level, provide motivation to remain actively cooperative and are very effcctive in getting the research results utilized rapidly.
Feedback from the department staff is also very helpful in developing research directions which are most promising. Conferences will be held at three levels and modes. Frequent informal meetings would be held with the department personnel directly involved in the research sites.
Periodic, usually twice per year, conferences will be held for a broader group of agency personnel, usually including system superintendents and
Central staff designers. These meetings would include formal reports as well as opportunity for discussion. Direct reporting to the agency administrator is planned for at least once per year.
B. Planning and reporting workshops.
Research planning workshops are projected prior to the establish ment of each research effort. These will provide the opportunity for effective input into the research planning by the host country collabora tors, as well as for dissemination of the results of the previous research.
An up-dated "state-of-the-art" report will form the initial basis for
,each workshop, from which specific emphases will be developed. Following the field data collection phase of each project, a symposium will be held in the host country, to review the data and the prolected analysis. Subsequent to the analysis, an expanded conference. - 12
to report the results is planned with participation of other agencies
and groups concerned with irrigation development in the region.
C. International symposium.
Toward the latter stage of the research program, an international
conference is projected. This conference will be specifically aimed at
the planning and design community which, in practical terms, may be the
most important group in influencing the utilization of this and other
research results.
D. Other professional meetings.
The importance of irrigation in w.rld food problems and in agri
cultural development in general is so widely recognized that various
VZ-r1-1"cn:.y are ccnsidered w'i:nin rhebe contexx. This it evident
in past AAS meetings, at the World Food Conference, in a variety of
professional society meetings, and most recently in deliberations of the
International Food Policy Research Institute. It is the researchers
involvei in this project who will participate in a variety of those
meetings and will have the opportunity to present the findings and
conclusious.
VI. MANAGL4EUT CONSIDERATIONS
It is proposed that this research be handled through a sole source
contract. The work must be done by an interdisciplinary team and the
suggested investigators have demonstraed strong abilities in this
rc ard. The fou r -p cipal nvest nto 1 represent the critical - 13 disciplines associated with the problem. All have had extensive ex perience in irrigation related work in Asia; two have had significant additional experience in Latin America. These experiences-include field research, technical assistance, teaching, and policy level advising to government agencies and/or the major foundations. The investigators have worked together previously and have established the relationships necessary for effective multidisciplinary research. Note that because of special competencies and experience working as a team, two universities are proposed. The contract would however be with one, Cornell, who would sub-contract for the services from Rutgers.
A portion of the field work should ideally be conducted in'Asia where
..L ... azar;L aonticaaie experieice and i kages. it is assumed that concerned field missions will be interested and cooperative; however, before any field work or formal LDC linkages are made an inquiry will be made of all missions as to their interest in this research. ?inal selec tion of test sites will be made by the AID project managei.. and the contractor in consultation with Regional Bureaus only after receipt of suggestions from missions.
Great care will be taken during the preliminary stages of the project to ensure good linkages. The AID project managers will assist the contractor, in the field, with the development of formal linkages between the USAID mission, the host country instititions, and the centrally funded - 14
contract. This will be accomplished through meetings, at the test sites, with all concerned parties.
The project management in AID will be handled jointly by TA/AGR and
SER/ENGR Operations-Water Resources. Budggting,,reporting, and docu
mentation will be processed through TAB; however, the project co-manager
from SER/ENGR will be a necessary signatory to all official documents.
Semi-annual meetings will be held between the contractor and the
technical representatives from AID. These meetings will serve to co
ordinate this project with other related AID financed research projects,
to check progress, to plan future work and to anticipate and remove
constraints which might impede progress. In certain instances these
meetings may be held in LDCs tp take advantage of mission and host country
input.
Between 12 and 18 months after initiation the project will receive
a rather thorough review. This review will assess the progress but
more importantly it will analyze the linkages closely to determine whether
the site selection was good or if it should be c~lnged while there is
sufficient time to develop reliable data elsewhere. At this point a
decision will also be made as to the desirability of conducting the re search in a third country. VII. TECOnICAL REVIEW
Past research on irrigation has been highly disciplinary oriented.
A considerable amount of research has been doue exploring relationships
between plant growth and water applications: much of it in research
station settings. Similarly, significant research has been completed on
the technology of irrigation. The work of social scientists on irrigation
institutions and organizations has either been incidental to more focal
sociological concerns or has largely ignored the significant nonsocial
components of the systems.
Important new trends have occurred in the past few years. Water
management research at IRRI has applied engineering and agronomic research
in fieid sc :ings and has combinea an incure-zt in managemcnt and organi
zational issues. Researchers at Colorado State University are conducting
research at the turnout level in operational systems in Pakistan. Romana
de los Reyes, a graduate student in Anthropology, is conducting a unique
study of a communal irrigation system in the Philippines that will combine
sociolcgical analysis with data on the physical performance of the system.
Absent from the literature, at this point, are any systematic studies
ox che interaction of physical, biological, economic and organizational
elements of irrigation based on a comprehensive program of research
conducted in several field sites with comparative data. Thus, while
numerous studies in the existing literature are su,-gestive of critical
interactions related to system performanc., they do not provide an adequate - 16
basis for the enumeration of design and operations implications. What is
needed is a program of research that will allow the careful identification
of critical interactions and the interpretation of these findings into
practical implications.
Undoubtedly the reason for the paucity of literature is in the fact
that in developed countries the strong farmer organizations coupled with
vast resources have overcome the naed for careful integration of social,
ecoiaomic, and technical factors at the design stages of irrigation
development. These interactions become apparent in the LDC environment
because of the scarcity of resources to waste and the education level
of the farmer,- especially small farmer.
Tegj.,id ces rch utilizng the, cuombined experience of several
disciplines with a focused program of comparitive research in several
irrigation systems -thin the same country as well as systems in different
countries is intended to help fill this significant gap.
VIII. RESEARCH PROJECT DESIGN AND METHODS
Two sets of milestones can be identified for this ptoject, one' V internal to each set of country studies; a second, reflecting the
combination of country studies to achieve the project purpose.
Within each country the research program will have four milestone
completion points: (1) initiation of the field studies, following a pre
project planning workshop and development of cooperation specifics; (23
completion of field data collection and preliminary analyses; (3) com "17 pletion of final analysis, reflected by a report docuent; and (4) information dissemination, characterized by final reporting meetings with
LDC agency staff and administrators.
The project milestones can be characterized by five events: (1) initiation of studies in the initial three countries; (2) completion of the country studies; (3) completion of the between country comparisons;
(4) completion of the critical workshops and preparation of the final reports; and (5) holding of the international symposium.
The anticipated time span for the total set of activities is five years. It is recognized that this project statement suggests a three year period, and therefore the full integration of the individual studies
-o ..... t.an -" inte tne, c ~,1rc"_av -*. +-b rl.:Xttl wo-ckslopa and tl-Le -titr Com national symposium would not take place during the initial period. pletion of the t.o of the three country studies, and initiation of the third are anticipated within the three year time-frame.
Research objectives: A basic hypothesis underlying the research ob jectives is that specific variables within each of the component dimensions making up the irrigation system environmerft are critical for satsifactory system performance, not only by virtue of their direct effects but also because of their interaction effects. For example, in the physical dimension the importance of the magnitude of the available water supply in determining the area that can be served by the. system is clearly recognized. The customary design procedure to relate these two variables is to estimate the crop water requirements and the efficiencies in distribu ting and transporting the water thus arriving at a'specified quantity necessary per unit area to be served. The efficiency selected presumably reflects objectives related to economic and resource use efficiency.
What is not generally recognized is that the combination of social attitudes toward water distribution coupled with factors such as profitability re sulting from irrigation may have a critical impact on whether those eff .-encies could in fact be achieved. As a specific example, the DEZ pilot irrigation project in Iran can be considered classic. The project, designed as a modern agricultural development effort based on irrigation, with the latest in irrigation technology, was designed with the expectation th~it waZ:..r usa -fwould increase from.h 250% f.nd 'n tha tradi tional systems to 55 or 66% with the modern improvements. Six years after the project was in operation actual water use efficiency was 11%. The modern system destroyed the role of the local villages in the water control process and failed to substitute an organizational structure that the local farmers were willing to accept.
Many more individual cases could be cited where failure to recognize critical interaction has resulted in failures to reach project objectives, partially or totally. However, there has not been rigorous research to identify these critical interactions.
Research Objective 1: To describe, analyze and explain the complex interactions bEtween the physical, biological, economic and organizational - 19
dimensions of existing irrigation systems and the relationships of these
factors to overall system performance.
A. The complexity of the problems being addressed, the importance of understanding local situations, and the need for interaction with irri gation system personnel, require that the research be cooperative with host country research colleagues and government agencies. The basic approach is to conduct multi-disciplinary field studies of operating systems in each of three countries; initially the Philippines, then Malaysia or
Thailand, and later in a Latin American or African country. The second and third country selections will be made in consultation with Regional
Bureaus, Missions and TAB with the final selection dependent upon Mission and host coUntry concurrence and a pr.eliminary evaluation of irrigation systems within each country.
The first systems to be studied are located in the Philippines where there is strong governmental c..acern with many of the issues related
to this proposed research and where many international agencies, including
AID, are active in the irrigation development area.
Prior to collecting field data, a planning workshop will be held with host country input to identify specific sub-objectives, details for field work, and research procedures.
The field data will be colletted by a mix of research tech niques including at least the following:
1. vhvsical measurements of water flow: to determine - 20 actual amounts of water being delivered at different locations within the system and at different points in time..
2. farm surveys: to determine cropping patterns being followed, production inputs used, patterns of landholding, etc.
3. key informant interviews: to obtain information on the formal and informal roles and rules used to operate and maintain the system, procedures for selecting leaders, modifying roles of work time, etc
4. participant observ'ation: attendance at group meetings, involvement with work groups, observation of actual irrigation activities will be used both to zollaborate information collected through other techniques and to identify new information. 5. Qoaouetria .... o .2.antIy pattarns of farmer interaction on water use and related activities such as joint land prepara tion or tarketing acrivities.
6. examination of records: when possible, the examina
tion.of records such as minutes of meetings, formal statements of rules and procedures, financial records and other information will be used as information sdurces.
These are standard te-hniques for obtaining the needed infor mation and the investigators have had long experience with them.
The focus of data collection initially will be on specific variables related to the physical, biological, ecbnomic and organizational
elements. These efforts will be designed to answer such questions as:
the-nature of the enineeri-g structures of the systa, the types of - 21 soils available, basic climatic conditions, available water supplies, the nature of cropping, informal water rights, patterns of communication and leadership, ect. As information is collected on each of these specialized topics and shared among the research staff, potential critical inter actions will be identified. As these are identified, research procedures will be implemented to carefully investigate these leads. For example, if information on canal size suggests that water delivery at the time of land preparation will be significantly constrained, researchers working in the economic and organizational areas will be alerted to look for specific cropping patterns, rules for planting schedules or other techniques that the-system users may have derived to cope with this problem.
T1- i-'ntific'-tion of ,iidina ruestions, as that of the test SiVes themselves, will be made during the project initiation phase of each country study. Development of the specifics of cooperative effort will take place at the same time. In addition to the LDC participation during the planning phasd it is anticipated that some LDC researchers from the
Institute for Philippine Culture, the University of the Philippines (Los
Banos) and Central Luzon State University may be actively involved with aspects of the field work and data collection.
B. The major activities associated with this objective are:
a. the planning workshops to be held in each country for the purpose of identifying test systems, specific. study questions and details of host-country collaboration. These will be held at approximately six - 22 month intervals and therefore will be completed in the 3rd country about
18 months after project initiation. This activity will prcluce the test procedure, questionnaires and detailed research plans for each case study.
b. the Philippine country studies including the collection of field data, analysis and reporting of results will be initiated approxi mately 6 mos. after project initiation and concluded with a 21 month period. Field data will include: water use by farming units, economic
(farm budget) data at the farm level, details of water management practices at the various management levels within the irrigation system, and opera tional details of associated farmer organizations and social structures.
This activity will be complete with the compilation of the data into a report.
c. the second Asian studies (Thailand or Malaysia) similar to
Activity b will be initiated 12 month.. after project initiation and completed in the following 21 months. The data (same as a above) will be collected, compiled, and recorded in same manner as first case study.
d. the third Country studies similar to a and b above will be initiated 21 months after project initiation and completed at the end of the project period. Data and compilation as a'and b above.
e. Integration of Country Studies would be initiated only if
the project is extended beyond 3 years. This would involve an examination of iLtdividual country studies for conclusions which can be generalized across geographic and agricultural system regions. - 23-
C. The resource requirements include: (1) access to the overseas field sites; contacts with irrigation agency administrators in the countries specified insure this accessibility; (2) faculty and graduate students in the host country; the contractor has had continuing contact with faculty colleagues in the countries specified and has been assured of cooperative efforts. The MPRI has indicated the availability of scholars and trainees from the flRI training program; (3) vehicles--depending upon the location of specific sites, one or two jeeps (or equivalent) plus a motorbike would be required, along with miscellaneous small equipment; e.g., rain gages, locally fabricated. No other special equipment needs are anticipated.
Total estimated cost for this objective is approximately
Research Obj ective 2: To develop analytical tools and procedures for
the identification of critical system interactions suitable for use by the
professional community involved in design and operation of irrigation systems in the developing countries.
As discussed under Research Objective 1, the number of possible inter-
actions influencing system performance is extremely large. Research 1 Objective 2 will build on the understanding gained through Objective
by systematic analysis of the interrelationships identified and their
effects on system performance is anticipated that scaler rankings of
importance will be an outcome.
A. The major activities associated with this objective are: -24
a. development of preliminary analytical tools and procedures.
Quantitative and qualitative scaling techniques will be used to develop procedures to rate variable in terms of their impact. The data from the Philippine Case will be used to do this.
b. application of preliminary procedures tn a Almilar environ ment; refinement of the tools and procedures.
The procedure developed in a above utilizing Philippine data will be applied to the irrigation system of the second Asian country.
The results of this technique will then be compared to the dat, collected in that country. Discrepencies in critical variable resulting from the analytic procedure vs. the data collection will be evaluated and the procedure r-fI'-edaccordingly.
c. application of the procedures to a broader context; re finement of the tools and procedures.
The refined procedut.- will be evaluated for extrapolation toa wider cultural environment by testing it on the third country (Africa or Latin America) data. 0 d. adaptation of the procedures for use by the professional irrigation community.
Finalizing the procedure based on the testing procedures described in a, b, c above.
B. The milestone events will be the preparation of the local vorking papers, the holding of the agency workshops and preparation of the country study final reports. - 25 -
C. No special equipment or facilities are required. Personnel needs include the senior investigators, along with host-country colleagues.
Approximately $55,000 is estimated for this objective.
Research Objective 3 and 4: To identify system design and operation
implications that derive from the explicit consieration of socio-economic
factors and their interacticn with physical and biological factors; to
identify the planning policy implications.
A. Two types of activities are anticipated for these objectives:
a. analysis using country studies are expected to reveal a
set (or sets) of variables influencing system performance. The results
of this synthesis will be a general application based on commonality of criticai.va-abie5.
b. critical review and interaction with LDC irrigation
agency design and operation personnel and with policy level planners.
B. Following achievezent of objectives 1 and 2, data on selected
systems in the Upper Pampanga River Project cotmand area will be obtained,
using the developed procedures. Analysis will be for the purpose .of
identifying the design and operation implications. The reporting of these
analyses and implications will be the indicator of phase completion.
Accuracy of the identification cannot be judged until-implementation of
the changes under the UPRP.
C. No special resource requirements othet than the investigators
and associated graduate students and collaborators. It is anticipated
that $45.000 till be used fcr this effort. - 26-
The general pattern of field data collection and preliminary
analysis by the research teams followed by critical reaction from other
researchers and end-product users, with final analysis and reporting has
been used very successfully by researcher-s affiliated with the Corneii
Rural Development Cono-ittee.
IX. ESTLIWTED BUDGET
(See page 26) IK- ESTItATED BIJD(ET
First Second Third Total Man Est. 'an Est. Man Est. Man Est. Mos. Cost los. Cost los. Cost Mos. Cost
SnIaries--Professional $13,000 $14,000 $14,000 $41,000 Salaries--Res. Assistants 18,000 23,000 23,000 64,000 2 C,,n;ultants 1,000 1,000 1,000 3,000 Fringe Benefits 3,000 4,000 4,000 11,000 Ov'evhe;td 13,000 16,000 16,000 45,000 Tv;iel & Tr:zasportatlon 13,000 14,000 14,090 41,000 21,000 Eiuipn:,,-t Supplies 9,000 6,000 6,000 Pib:-Lhations 1,000 2,000 3, 000 Fied Research 10,000 18,000 12,000 40,000 Other Direct Costs 5,000 3,000 3,000 11,000
Total by Inputs $85,000 $100,000 $95,000 $280,000
Outputs
R.search Objective # 1 23 $75,000 30 $60,000 30.5 $45,000 83.5 $1R0,000 fRs,:arch Objective # 2 3.5 10,000 8 30,000 6.5 15,000 18.0 55,000 Rcsearch Objective # 3 3 3.5 8,000 4.5 22,000 11.0 30,000 15,000 Research Objective # 4 0.5 1.5 2,000 1.5 13,000 3.5
Total Outputs 30 85,000 43 .100,000 43 $95,000 116 $280,000 - 2A -
X. WORK PLN
Objective 1: To describe, analyze and explain the complex interactions
between the physical, biological, economic and organizational dimensions
of existing irrigation systems and the relationships of these factors to
overall system performance.
Completion of the first of the three sets of country studies is
anticipated by the end of the second year; completion of the second set
_s scheduled for mid-year three. Completion of the third set is antici
pated early in year four. (It is reccgnized that this is a three year
project and the decision to proceed with the third country set will be
dependent upon review of the research progress during the second year.)
A. A :tlvities
1. Plannin workshoms. In view of the major element of host
country cooperative effort required for this research, provision for
host-country input at the planning stage is required. Prior to each set
of country studies, a planning workshop will be held, to identify specific
sub-objectives, details of field work, and research procedures for the
particular system.
The International Rice Research Institute is planning research
on the identification and implementation of relatively specific practices
for the improvement of system operation in the Philippines and other
countries of Asia. The !MRIwill participate in the planning workshops
for this project and will include appropriate data collection in its on
studies to provie inut intc the coLncrative hase of this research. , 29
2. Field data collection and preliminary analysis (Philippines).
Following the first planning workshop the field studies will take place.
Intensive data collection will take place at a number of communal systems in the Philippines. Analysis of system specific interactions will take place.
3. Field data collection and preliminary analysis (Thailand or
Malaysia) Same as for activitY 2, except in Second Asia country. (Th selection of the second country is not specified at this time, pending a research needs workshop to be held in Asia during first 6 months of pro je .
4. Field data collection and preliminary analysis (third country)
Same as ±oractiv.,:y selection of appropriatc country cc be based upon consultations with AID and LDCs.
5. Integraticn of country studies into a data bank such that comparisons can readily be made.
B. Inputs
Principal investigators, primarily forActivity 1 and during initial and final stages of Activities 2,"3, 4.
Graduate students, U.S. and host-country, primarily in Activities
2, 3, and 4, though active in Activity 1. The budget estimates have been identified in detail by Fiscal Year (section I(, p. 26) with overall estimates by objective. For the first t",o years, for Objective 1, the estimated total cost of $145,000. - 30 -
C. Objectively verifiable progress and completiou indicators
Activity a. Planning conference reports complete
Activity b. First country report data base, and associated publi-
cations
Activity c. Second cuuntry report and associated publications
Activity d, Third country report and associated publications
Activity e. Tnternational syiposium and report.
Objective 2: To develop analytical tools and procedures for the identi fication of critical system interactions. The achievement of Objective
1 for the two Asian countries-wi.l. permit the development of procedures
Fnnr'D'o'Pri'..:. o the A.Sian ontext.
This should be completed within the third year. Application to the
Third Country case, and subsequent modification would take place in the
fourth year.
A. Activities
1. Development of procedures for Philippine environment. Initial
identification of critical variables and-an identification procedure. and Follcwing this development, a workshop with host-country researchers and refine irrigation department representatives will be held to evaluata
the procedures.
2. Application of refinement of procedures. The procedures to the developed on the basis of the Philippine studies will be applied
eud ASia' CCountry; tc JIdIQC UI -"the n.U frz 31
the second set of studies. A local critical workshop will be held for
agency reaction..
3. Application and refinement of procedures for Third country.
Similar to Activity 2; expected completion latter part of year 4.
4. Development of generalized procedure!. A pattern similar to
2 and 3 though with the broader perspective, culminating in a general critical workshop and international symposium in the fifth year.
B. Inputs
Primarily principal investigator and host-country colleagues and
agency personnel. Costs are primarily related to travel and partial
salaries.
C=,--.---- -zrif-ableprogress and cc=-pstion i rrs
Activity a. Formal procedure document completed
Activity b. Revised procedure document for Asian context nompleted
Activity c. Generalized procedure document completad.
Activity d. Generalized procedure document symposium and report
completed
Oblective 3: To identify system design and operation implications that
derive from explicit consideration of socio-economic factt 'sand their
interaction with physical and biologic factors. Most of the activity to
achieve this objective will take place in the third, and subsequent years.
Completion is anticipated for the fifth year, culminating in the presenta
tionS a.d dAscusc4ons at the 4.nternat lonal s-n-lsum The- country spcii - 32 implications will be completed approx imately si-i mov ,hs after completion of Okjective 1.in each country.
A. Activities
1. The analysis of results developed under Objective 1, as well as that obtained in studies by others.
2. Interaction with agency staff and administration. Formal reporting will be made through agency conferences. Emphesis will be upon local country implications. Uore general implications will be considered at the international symposium.
B. Inputs
Primarily principal investigators, host-country colleagues and agency personnel for the in-country activities. Budget icems primarily related to travel, and meetings.
C. Objectively verifiable progress and completion-Indicators.
Reports of agency conferences, and associated documents.
Objective 4: To identify planning policy implications. This objective will receive only preliminary emphasis during the first two years of the project. Significant work will start in. year three, with most emphasis during year 4 and 5. A. Activities
1. Analysis of results to date, and identification of policy" implications. -33
2. Critical review and reporting. Policy implications will be
explored with individuals active in irrigation planning, in a workshop.
format. Refinement of the implications statements. The final statements
will be explored at the international symposium.
B. Inputs
Primarily principal investigators, host-country colleagues, and
planning personnel. Budget items primarily related to travel and meet
ings.
C. Ob ectivaly verifiable progress and completion indicators.
Report cf policy implications. Professional and/or scientific
journal articles.
XII. GENERAL APPFAISAL
The material attached to this project statement includas a copy of
MILESTONE LIFE-OF-THE-PROJECT SCHEDULE; PID clearance, and all coments
received relative to the review of that PID.
TA/AGR: 3/1/76 PROJECT START OBJECTIVE/PRODUCT FY 77 F/ 78 FY 79 FY 80 -FY81
Objective 1 Activity a: Activity b• - --- " Ac tivity c .. Activity d "
Objective 2 Activity a 0
Activity b " /- - 7 "- Activityc
]N ObJective 3 Activity r (A Activity' *b
ObjIective 4" Activity . A. 7 - -. Ac tivity b :.. New York Staite College of Agriculture and Ufe Sciences a Statutory College of the State University Cornell University Department o' Rural Sociology (Graduate Field of Development Sociology) Warren Hall, Ithaca, N.Y. 14850 Telephone: 607-256-3163
September 2, 1976
Dr. Gilbert Corey Office of Agriculture Soil and Water Management.Division Bureau for Technical Assistance Agency for International Development Washington, DC 20523
Dear Gil:
With this letter I am transmitting to you three copies of our revised research proposal entitled: The Determinants of Developing Country Irrigation Project Problems: A Multifactor Analysis for Improved Systems Operation and Performance.
In this revision we have attempted to take into account several of the comments and suggestions that you have shared with us over the past few months. In particular, I would like to mention the following changes and/or additions:
- We have attempted to elaborate our discussion of the research methodology to be used. This includes presentation of the overall research design, data collection procedures and the analysis approaches that will be used.
- The work in this period is being proposed for the Asian region only. We continue to be interested in the possibilities of comparative work in Latin America and Asia but recognize the utility of an initial focus within the Asian region.
- We have added a section indicating the personnel directly aLd indirectly involved with the research. We have a number of colleagues in the area of political science and public administration with whom we would be collaborating Dr. Gilbert Corey -2"
regarding this research. These are not new contacts and would represent on-going interactions with them.
Our activities over the months since originally submitting this proposal to you have reinforced our commitment to work on this topic and encouraged us to believe that the topic is one of growing. policy importance.
We look forward to hearing from you regarding this submission.
Best regards,
E. Walter Coward, Jr. Associate Professor and Chairman Department of Rural Sociology
EWC:m Enclosure cc: Milton Barnett Gilbert Levine Leslie Small CORNELL UNIVERSITY WATER RESOURCES and MARINE SCIENCES CENTER rTHACA, NEW YORK 14853
607-256-7535 or -7323 Office of the Director 468 HOLLISTER HALL July 28, 1976
Dr. Gil Corey U.S. AID Office of Agriculture Technical Assistance Bureau Washington, D. C. 20523
Dear Dr. Corey:
Dr. Coward and I were in the Philippines during the latter part of June and used the occasion to confirm our research working relationships and to identify other potential collaborators. Meetings were held with U.S. AID mission staff, Philippine government administrators, academic institution administrators, as well as research colleagues. Specifically, we met with Frank W. Sheppard, Assistant Director for Agricultural Development, and Warren Leatham, Irrigation Engineer, both of U.S. AID, Manila; A.L. Juinio, Administrator of the National Irrigation Administration and Secretary of Public Works; Teodoro C. Ray, Jr., In-charge, Farm Systems Development Corporation; Joseph Madamba, Director Gene,'al, and Senen M. Miranda, Leader, Water Resources Research, both of the Philippine Council on Agricultural Resources Research; Joseph D. Drilon, Director, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture 'SEARCA). Thomas Wickham, Agricultural Engineer, IRRI; Mary Hollnsteiner and Fr. Frank Lynch, Institute of Philippine Culture.
As a result of these meetings, we have been able to confirm a number of the arrange ments tentatively identified in the research proposal, Determinants of Irrigation Problems.
Mr. Sheppard expressed increased interest on the part of the Mission, particularly if elements of the irrigation program of the Farm Systems Development Corporation could be included. This program, partially financed by AID has systehs that would be very appropriate for study and has a research and evaluation unit that will be collecting basic information of direct utility to the proposed study. Mr. Sheppard had requested copies of the P.I.D. so that he can transmit the proposal to the National Economic Development Administration for governmental approval. Subsequent conversations with Mr. Ray and Dr. Miranda, technical consultant to the F.S.D.C. provided verbal approval of cooperative study of the F.S.D.C. systems.
Administrator Juinio gave assurances of continued interest and cooperation of NIA in the proposed research. Data being collected for a major input-output study in the Upper Pampanga River Project command area will be valuable for the proposed studies, and we will have access to those data. In addition, NIA will cooperate on the field studies to be-carried out in the research effort. Mr. Drilon has offered to have the proposed research sponsored by SEARCA, under a Memorandum of Understanding that currently exists between SEARCA and Cornell University. This will make available to the research project participants the facilities, the access to information and the broader contacts in Southeast Asia of SEARCA, an institution of the Southeast Asian Ministers of Education Secretariat. It is anticipated that the research planning workshops and the research reporting seminars will be held under SEARCA sponsorship.
The meetings with our research colleagues confirmed interest in the proposed study, with most active cooperation anticipated with IRRI. The faculty at both the IPC and UPCA are heavily committed at this Lime, but are willing to assist in the research planning and will attempt to allocate graduate students to the project.
Both Dr. Coward and I were pleased to have the opportunity to engage in these discussions since they enabled us to confirm the interests of the Philippine govern mental agencies and of our colleagues. These contacts should permit a smooth and efficient start for the research, given project approval.
One additional comment; the occasion of my being in the Philippines, an International Seminar on Irrigation Policy and Management in Southeast Asia, sponsored by 'RRI, SEARCA, and ADC (the Agricultural Development Council) brought together ir.igation researchers and governmental policy makers from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. The concern and interest in research expressed by the policy-level administrators suggests growing importance for irrigation in the region and increased opportunities for research contribution. Sincely
GL/co ilbert Levine Director
cc: E.W. Coward M. Barnett L.E. Small THE DETERMINANTS OF DEVELOPING COUnFRY IRRIGATION
PROJECT PROBLEMS: A MULTIFACTOR ANALYSIS FOR
IMPROVED SYSTEMS OPERATION AND PERFORMANCE
Submitted to iUnited States Agency for International Development. Office of Agriculture Technical Assistance Bureau
by
Cornell University
September 1976 TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
1. Summary ...... 1
2. Research Purpose and Expected ?roducts ...... 3
3. Significance and Rationale for the Research ...... 4
4. Plans to Coordinate to '.,ink Research--Including Networks . 6
. . . . 9 S. Plans to Facilitate Utilization of Research Results
6. Management Considerations ......
7. Technical Review ...... 1.. 4
8. Research Project Design and Methods...... • • • • . • 15
9. Overall Cost Estimates. . . 0 ...... 25/
10. Work Plan . . . . . 0 *0 0 26
Attachment 1 Milestone Life-of-Project Schedule ...... 3
Attachment 2 - Logical Framework Matrix ...... *. . 32
Attachment 3 -Personnel ...... 33
o o-£e 'e . ,e o 1. SUMMARY
Title The Determinants of Developing Country Irrigation Project Problems: A Multifactor Analysis for Improved System Operation and Performance
Duration October 1976 - September 1979
Estimated Cost $278,700
Principal Investigators M.L. Barnett, Department of Rural Sociology, Cornell University E.W. Coward, Department of Rural Sociology, Cornell University G. Levine, Department of Agricultural Engineering, Cornell University L.E. Small, Department of Agricultural Economics and Marketin2. Rutgers University
Narrative Summary: Expanded irrigation has been identified as a major factor in the development of the LDC's, as evidenced in the UN Indicative World Plan.
Its critical role relative to the world hunger problems was stressed in the PSAC report on the World Food Supply and more recently at the World
Food Conference. USAID, alone, has over 100 million dollars of current
water-related projects, many'of them irrigation oriented. Notwithstanding
a long history of irrigation, increasing understanding of the basic
engineering and agricultural sciences, and massive investments, wany modern irrigation projects encounter major problems. Some of the problems relate to the physical components of the systems, but the most seriociz
occur in management and utilization. These are especially serious where
the systems are supposed to meet small-holder needs.
The problems encountered have been serious enough oi many projects
that they have altered the course of future governmental policies,
,certainly in the area of investment and irequently to the detriment of small holders. It is the thesis of the proposed research that the causes of these failures are an inadequate recognition of the critical importance of the interactions of the socio-economic factors with the physical aspects of the systems and a lack of understanding of these interactions. To illus trate, the process of water distribution in an irrigation system is a function, inter alia, of the physical layout of the distribution channels and the management rules followed by the water authorities. These two elements, channels and rules, interact and cannot be viewed as independent elements when systems are being designed or operated. Since the ability to implement management rules, in turn, is a function of social,arrange ments the initial choice of distribution layout needs to be considered from an organizational perspective.
The research proposes first to describe and analyze critical inter actions, such as these; second, it will attempt to identify those interactions that are critical to system success; third, the implications for policy, design and operation will be identified. It is anticipated that this increased understanding will be incorporated into a set of
analytical and operational procedures designed for use by planning, design
and operations organizations.
The research procedure will be based upon detailed, interdisciplinary
field analysis of existing systems with a range of physical and socio
economic conditions.. The studies,will be comparative within county, between county, and between public and communal systems in monsoon Asia. 3
2. RESEARCH PURPOSE AND EXPECTED PRODUCTS
a. There is almost universal recognition that irrigation systems are "complex interactions of physical, economic and social factors." Yet, in planning, in design, and in operation many of these interactions, even critical ones, are either ignored or only considered intuitively.
It is the purpose of this proposed research to improve current procedures for the design of new irrigation systems, for the rehabilitatio of existing ones and, more generally, for system management and operation.
This would be achieved through explicit consideration of the interactions of critical socio-economic factors with the physical and biological factor
The ultimate indicator of the achievement of this purpose is improved irrigation system performance. For the purposes of evaluation of this research project a more realistic ultimate indIcator would be acceptance of the revised procedures by a significant number of the orga nizations responsible for the design and/or operation of irrigation systen
Intermediate indication of the achievement of the project purpose would be the successful application of the revised procedures to the redesign of at least a few existing systems. Both of these indicators require a relative long time for utilization, given the time span between design or redesign and system implementation, and between implementation and impact on projec performance.
A preliminary indicator-of the achievement of the stated purpose would be the utilization of the revised procedures by any of the organi zations responsible for design and/or operation of irrigation systems.
b. The specific research objectives are:
1. to describe, analyze and explain the complex intoractions 4 of existing irrigation systems and the relationships of these factors to overall system performance. to develop analytical tools and procedures for the identifi
cation.and analysis of critical system interactions of the type indicated
above.
3. to identify system design and operation implications that derive from the explicit consideration of socio-economic factors and their
interaction with physical and biological factors.
4. to identify the planning policy implications. These implica
tions lie in the areas of project scale, choice of technology, degree and
forms of farmer participation and equity considerations.
3.. SIGNIFICANCE AND RATIONALE FOR THE RESEARCH
a. Expanded irrigation has been identified as a major factor in the
development of the LDC's, as evidenced in the UIT Indicative W-lorld Plan.
Its critical role relative to the world hunger problem was stressed in
the PSAC report on the World. ood Supply and more recently at the World
Food Conference. Developmeat of new irrigation projects do cause increases
ia product.ion, aa.tcially since it usually allows for cropping during a
dry seasov,where ncthng-was previously grown. The tajor works (dams,
canals, ;eservoirs and delivery system) all represent visible achieve
meat and therefore carry a pos..tive political z:nnotation. Data world
wide, however, indicate that =ost irrigation systazs and practically all
in the LDC small farmer' secting operate at unbellevably lW .
Not more than 20 .erciat of the water reaches the crop 4,n many systrc-s.
Governments continue to build systems in this sate =o2-14- h e-..
taent from -orld.an,, A:D, and ::her !Cnr. . How.to provide good water management fram the wacer source to the
crop root zone in.the LDC setting is nether known nor documented. This
project is designed to address that problem by studying the social,
economic, and technical aspects of existing systems (state-of-the-are).
The objective is to provide a better mechanism for design and operation
of irrigation systems.
This project is targeted directly at AID's Soil and T.Water Straiteg:r
(presently being develcped). 'improvedirrigat!o. system design and operation is a.key problem wi.hin that strategy. Practically all:LDC
governments are interested in improving their irrigatio.a management;
evidence the more than $100 million directed at water resources management
in AID's 1976 budget submission. Results of this project will be extreme
ly useful tp governments in designing new and renovating old irrigation
b. The research literature abounds with studies of specific technical questions (relating to soils, plants, water, engineering concerns). There are a number of studies of project economics, and some of economic qffi ciency in relation to technological changes such as irrigation. Even in the social science literature there are significant numbers of studies relating to the social systems associated with irrigation, and a few that deal with specific physical components of the irrigation system itself.
(See Appendix II.) But to a very large extent these studies, while con sidering significant aspects of the complex interrelationships of developing country irrigation, were undertaken from a single disciplinary point of view. In a number of instances the sensitivity of the investigator to the related
disciplines has permitted a broader view, with new insights.
Rarely, however, have interdisciplinary studies of irrigation project
problems been undertaken with representatives of the relevant disciplines
collaborating closely. Neither have these studies been undertaken with a
focus on identifying policy and operational implications. As a result,
understanding of interactive effects and their implications for planning,
design and operational processes is woefully inadequate. This is especially
true for understanding of sociolol;ical implications and their interactions
with the physical aspects of the systems. These interactions are important
both in terms of the anticipated operations of the systems and in terms of
the anticipated consequences of project investment.
4. PLANS TO COORDINATE TO LINK RESEARCH--INCLUDING NETWORKS
Since the emphasis is on real-world systems, active cooperation of
the governmentRl agencies responsible for irrigation is essential. Working
contact already exists with the National Irrigation Administration (NIA)
in the Philippines, the Muda River Development Authority and the Division of Irrigation and Drainage in Malaysia and the Royal Irrigation Department
in Thailand. Contacts have been made with relevant agencies in Indonesia,
though working relationships have not yet been established. Close rela
tionships exist witii staff on the Agro-Economic Survey of Indonesia.
Linkages with the academic institutions in these countries have been
- established through previous research activities of the proponents. In
the Philippines, close relationships exist with faculty at the University
of the Philippines, at Dilliman and 1.0oBanos. Important among these is
contact with Dr. Senen M. Miranda of the Department of Ar'._c_-tr -7
Economics, an advisor to the NIA and research leader in the area of water resources with the Philippine Council of Agricultural Research. Similar relationships exist with the Institute of Philippine Culture (IPC), a social science research unit of the Ateneo de Manila and the Social Science
Research Unit of the Ateneo de Naga. The IPC is collaborating with the
NIA on a survey of communal systems in the Philippines with support from the Ford Foundation.
In Malaysia working relationships exist with the Agricultural
University at Serdang and the Science University of Malaya in Penang. In
Thailand collaboration is anticipated with Kasetsart University (both its engineering and social science departments) and several other aniversities including: Chulalongkorn, Thammasat, Kong Kaen and Chieng Mai.
The International RiteoResearch Institute (IRR) is expanding its research in the water management field and close working relationships exist between the proponents and the research staff and administration at
ERRI. Discussions have already been held with the Director of the Institute,
Dr. N.C. Brady; with Dr. R. Barker of the Department of Agricultural
Economics; and with Dr. T. Wickham of the new Department of Water Management.
Close collaboration is further assured both within the Philippines and other countries of the region as IRRI's water management research expands.
In South Asia contacts have been established with staff of the Water
Technology Center of the Indian Agricultural Research Institute and the
Water Pesources Development Center at the University of Roorkee, as well as with the Agrarian Research and Training Center in Sri Lanka.
It is anticipated that this research will be related to the activities of the regional network on irrigation research supported by the Agrizultural
Development Council. This network represents an important group of Asian -8 researchers and others concerned with the improved operation of irrigation systems.
Asian researchers represented in the-network are an important source of information on irrigation research and a significant group for future research efforts on this topic. They will be used for purposes of reviewing research plans and strategies and as analyzed data becomes available as a forum for the early presentation of findings and interpretations. Their ability to discuss the findings in the context of their broad collective research experience will be of great value in the final reporting of results.
Two important U.S. groups dealing with LDC irrigation issues are the
Consortium for International Development and the Food Institute of the
East-West Center. Faculty associated with CID can perf rm useful consult ing roles regarding research methodologies, the final interpretations of results and the development of policy recommendations. Their participa tion in the development of the final 4nternational symposium will be very helpful. The Food Institute has considecable experience with presenting research findinos to system managers and operators and useful collaboration with them for the purposes of translating research findings into instruc tional materials is envisioned.
Colorado State University in their AID supported.research project in Pakistan has carefully delineated social and technical problems associ ated with the on-farm aspects of that irrigation system. CSU counsel will be sought in design of the detailed work plan and their data and collection techni ues reviewed carefully and used where applicable.
We visualize these linkages and cooperative activities as being important components of this research effort. In addition to the direct - 9 value of the research itself, the combined activities will assist signi ficantly in raintaining the fragile but important momentum that currently exists and in the development of expanded local research capability.
The linkages anticipated include host country participation in development of the research specifics (e.g., identification of specific issues, selection of study sites, etc.), active cooperative studies utiliz ing local graduate students and trainees along with advanced graduate students from Cornell and Rutgers, both U.S. and foreign. In most instances, the local graduate students will be supported from local resources, though some logistic support will be provided from the project.
5. PLANS TO FACILITATE UTILIZATION OF RESEARCH RESULTS
Four phases for facilitating the utilization of the results are anticipated: (a) irrigation department conferences; (b) planning and reporting workshops; (c) international symposium, and (d) other professional meetings dealing with problems of technology, food and agricultural development.
(a) Irrigation department conferences
Our past experience has shown that periodic progress reports to the irrigation agency staff, both at the system level and at the top adminis trative level, provide motivation to remain actively cooperative and are very effective in getting the research results utilized rapidly. Feedback from the agency staff is also very helpful in developing research directions which are most promising. Conferences are held at three levels and modes.
Frequent informal meetings are held with the agency personnel directly involved in the research sites. Periodic, usually twice per year, con ferences arecheld for a broader group of agency, personnel, usually - 10 including system superintendents and Central staff designers. These meetings would include formal reports as well as opportunity for discus sion. Direct reporting to the agency administrator is nlanned forat least once per year. (b) Planning and reporting workshops Research planning workshops are projected prior to the establishment of each research effort. These will provide the opportunity for effective input into the research planning by the host country collaborators, as well as for dissemination of the results of the previous research. An updated "state-of-the-art" report will form the initial basis for each workshop, from which specific emphases will be developed. Following the field data collection phase of each project, a symposium will be held in the host country, to review the data and thE projected analysis. Subsequent to the analysis, an expanded conference to report the results is planned with'participation of otht- agencies and groups concerned with irrigation development in the region, such as, the Mekong Committee. Cc) International symposium
Toward the latter stage of the research program, an international conference is projected. This conference will.be specifically aimed at the planning and design community which, in practical terms, may be the most important group in influencing the utilization of this and other research results. (d)Other professional meetings The importance of irrigation in world food problems and in agri cultural development in general is so widely recognized that various aspects frequently are considered within these contexts. This is evident in past AAAS meetings, at. the World Food Conference, in a variety of
professional society meetings, and most recently in deliberations of the.
International Food Policy Research, Institute. The researchers involved.
in this project will participate in a. variety of those meetings and will
have. the: opportunity to present the findings and conclusions.
6. MANAGEMENT CONSIDERATIONS
rt is proposed that this research be handled through a sole source
contract. The work must be done by an interdisciplinary team and the
suggested investigators have demonsr ated strong abIlities in this
reg..rdi, , rt-ci i::vestp-ators r3 .-=e.-. t:hc criti .. disciplines associated with the problem. All-have had extensive ex
•perience in irrigation, related work. in Asia; two have had significant
additional experience in Latin America. These experiences include field
research, technical assistance, teaching, .and policy level'advising to
government agencies anad/or the major foundations. The investigators have
worked together previously and have established the relationships necessa.
for efft.tivp Trl-daCn4o-r -ac -V~ 'm^^ of acl
competencies and experience working as a:team, two universities are
proposed. The contract would however be with one, Cornell, who would
sub-contract for the services from Rutgers.
A portion of the field work should ideally be conducfed in Asia where
:r~a rc~crcn ::c ho.:. ie xperience anid lin~ages. .tL that concerned field missions will be intarested and cooperative; howavar, before any field work or formal LDC linkages are made ah inquiry will be made of all missions as to their inter-st in this research. Final selec tion of test sites will be made by the AID project managers and the contractor in consultation with Regional I'reaus only after receipt of suggestions from missions.
Great care will be taken during the preliminary stages of the project to ensure good linkages. The AID project .managerswill assist the contractor, in the field, with the development of formal linkages between the USAID mission, the host country institutions, and the centrally fUnded contraht.. This will be accomplished through.meetings, at the test sites, with all concerned- parries.
The project management in AID will be handled jointly by.TA/AGR and
SER/EI1GR Operations-Water Resources.- Budgeting, reporting, and docu mentation will be processed through TAB; however, the project co-manage-, fr.om SER/EMR will 1a a necessary signatory to all official documents.
Sui!-a:iaua meein-s.w411 be. held b.tWean the contracr technical rapresentatives from AID. These mhetings will serve to co ordinate this projcct with other related AID financet research prujact's, to 'check progress, to plan future work and to anticipate and remove constraints which might impedeprogress. In certain instances these -13
meetings ray be uied In.LDCs iuo tak adv&5L .a-a of mission and ha.z z-u-t y inp.'
Bet .wen12 and 18 months after initiation the project will're'eLve
a rather thorough review. This review will assess the progrdss tut
more taportantly it will analyze the linkages closely to determine whether
the site selection was good or if it should be changed while there i!
sufficient tine to develop reliable data elsewhere. At this point a
declston Will also be made as to the desirability of conducting the ri
search in a third country.
Special Competence of the Contractor: The four principal investigators represent the critical disciplines
associated. with the problem. All have had extensive experience in irriga
-tion related work in Asia; two have had significant additional experience
in Latin America. These experiences include field research, technical
assistance, teaching, and policy level advising to government agencies
and/or the major foundations. The investigators have worked together -14 previously and have established the relationships necessary for effective multi-disciplinary research. The search for the special competencies necessary for research on this type of problem was not confined to one university, and thus faculty from both Cornell University and Rutgers
University are represented.
7. TECHNICAL REVIEW
Past research on irrigation has been highly disciplinary oriented.
A considerable amount of research has been done exploring relationships between plant growth and water applications: much of it in research station settings. Similarly, significant research has been completed on the technology of irrigation. The work of social scientists on irrigation institutions and organizations has either been incidental to more focal sociological concerns or has largely ignored the significant nonsocial components of the systems.
Important new trends have occurred in the past few years. Water management research at IRRI has applied engineering and agronomic research
in field settings and has combined an interest in management and organiza tional issues. Researchers at Colorado State University are conducting
research at the turnout level in operational systems in Pakistan. Romana
de los Reyes, a graduate student in Anthropology, is conducting a unique
study of a communal.irrigation system in the Philippines that will combine
sociological analysis with data on the physical performance of the system.
Absent from the literature, at this point, are any systematic studies
of the interaction of physical, biological, economic and organizational
elements of irrigation based on a comprehensive program of research
conducted in several field sites with comparative data. Thus, while - 15 numerous studies in the existing literature are suggestive of critical interactions related to system performance, they do not provide an adequate basis for the enumeration of design and operations implications. What is needed is a program of research that will allow the careful identification of critical interactions and the interpretation of these findings into practical implications.
Our proposed research utilizing the combined experience of several disciplines with a focused program of research in several within- and cross-national field sites is intended to help fill this significant gap.
8. RESEARCH PROJECT DESIGN AND METHODS
Two sets of milestones can be identified for this project, one internal to each set of country studies; a second, reflecting the combina tion of country studies to achieve the project objectives.
Within each country the research program will have four completion points: (1) initiation of the field studies, following the pre-project planning workshop and development of cooperation specifics; (2) completion of field data collection and preliminary analyses; (3) completion of final
analysis, reflected by a report document; and (4) information dissemination,
characterized by final reporting meetings with agency staff and adminis
trators.
The project milestones can be characterized by five events: (1)
initiation of studies in the initial three countries; (2) completion of
the country studies; (3) completion of the between-country comparisons;
(4) completion of the critical workshops and preparation of the final
reports; and (5) holding of the international symposium. -16 -
The anticipated time span for the total set of activities is five years. It is recognized that this proposal is for a three-year period,
and therefore the full integration of the individual studies into the
comparative framework, the critical workshops and the international
symposium would not take place during the initial period. Completion of
the two of the thret country studies, and initiation of the third are
anticipated within the three-year time frame.
Research Objectives
A basic hypothesis underlying the research objectives is that specific
variables within each of the component dimensions making up the irrigation
system environment are critical for satisfactory system performance, not
only by virtue of their direct effects but also because of their interaction
effects. For example, in the physical dimension the importance of the
magnitude of the available water supply in determining the area that can be
served by the system is clearly recognized. The customary design procedure
to relate these two variables is to estimate the crop water requirements
and the efficiencies in distributing and transporting the water thus arriving
at a specified quantity necessary per unit area to be served. The efficiency
selected presumably reflects objectives related to economic and resource
use efficiency. What is not generally recognized is that the combination
of social attitudes toward water distribution coupled with factors such as
profitability resulting from irrigation may have a critical impact on
whether those efficiencies could in fact be achieved. As a specific
example, the DEZ pilot irrigation project in Iran can be considered classic.
The project, designed as a modern agricultural development effort based on
irrigation, with the latest in irrigation.technology, was designed with 17 the expectation that water use efficiency would increcs. from the 25% found in the traditional systems to 55 or 66% with the modern improvements.
Six years after the project was in operation actual water use efficiency was 11%. The modern system destroyed the role of the local villages in struc the water control process and failed to substitute an organizational ture that the local farmers were willing to accept.
Many more individual cases could be cited where failure to recognize critical interaction has resulted in failures to reach project objectives, partially or totally. However, there has not been rigorous research to identify these critical interactions.
Research Objective 1: To describe, analyze and explain the complex inter actions between the physical, biological, economic and organizational dimensions of existing irrigation systems and the relationships of these factors to overall system performance.
a. The basic approach is to conduct multi-disciplinary field studies of operating systems in each of three countries: initially the Philippines, then in two other countries of Asia.
The complexity of the problems being addressed, the importance of understanding local situations, and the need for interaction with irriga
tion system personnel, require that the research be cooperative with host
country research colleagues and government agencies. The research coopera
tion anticipated is described in the section on research linkages.
Initial focus will be on the systems in Central Luzon, either
communal or NIA operated, selected with input from host country colleagues
including the IPC survey of communal systems. The systems will represent
some which have been judged successful in meeting the water needs of small
holders and others which have been judged unsuccessful. The first systems to be studied are located in the Philippines wher
there is strong governmental concern with many of the issues related to
this proposed research and where many international agencies, including
AID, are active in the irrigation development area.
There are two important dimensions of the research that set the broad
parameters of the research methodology. First, the research is concerned
with actions in existing irrigation systems, hence the need for field
research and primary data collection in operating systems. Second, given
the conceptaal emphasis on critical interactions, specific field data
will be collected in each of the broad categories previously mentioned:
physical, biological, economic and organizational.
Research design: Existing irrigation systems in each of the three
Asian countries will be selected as field sites. In each country 3 to 5
systems will be identified for field work (the area served by one lateral
of a large irrigation system might be considered a "system" for the purposes
of this study). Thus, the total project would cover 9 to 15 different
field sites. Observations and data collection in each field site will
continue for approximately 18 months thus permitting observation of system
operation through both the wet and dry seasons. In addition, by utilizing
existing records and eliciting information from informants about the recent
past we will attempt to add a time dimension that exceeds this 18-month
observation period. a mix of Data collection: The field data will be collected by _ research techniques including at least the following:
1. Physical measurements of water flow: To determine actual amounts and at of water being delivered at different locations within the system
different points in time. 19
2 Farm surveys: to determine cropping patterns being followed,
production inputs used, patterns of landholding, etc.
3. Key informant interviews: *to obtain information on the formal
and informal roles and rules used to oper..te and maintain the system,
procedures for selecting leaders, modifying roles of work time, etc.
4. Participant observation: attendance at group meetings, involve
ment with work groups, observation of actual irrigation activities will
be used to collaborate information collected through other techniques and
to identify new information.
S. Sociometric techniques: to identify patterns of farmer inter
action on water use and related activities such as joint land preparation
or marketing activities.
6. Examination of records: when possible, the examination of
records such as minutes of meetings, formal statements of rules aid
procedures, financial records and other information will be used as
information sources.
These are standard techniques for obtaining the needed data and the
investigators have had long experience with them.
The focus of data collection initially wil! be on specific variables
related to the physical, biological, econo.Tic and organizational elements.
These efforts will be designed to answer such questions as: the nature of
the engineering structures of the system, the types of soils available,
basic climatic conditions, available water supplies, the nature of cropping,
_ informal water rights, patterns of communication and leadership, etc. As
information is collected on each of these specialized topics and shared
among the research staff, potential critical interactions will be identi
fied. As these are identified, research procedures will be implemented to 20 carefully investigate these leads. For example, if information on canal size suggests that water delivery at the time of land preparation will be significantly constrained, researchers working in the economic and organi zational areas will be alerted to look for specific cropping patterns, rules for planting schedules or other techniques that the system users may have derived to rope with this problem.
The identification of guiding questions, as that of the test sites themselves, will be made during the project initiation phase of each country study. Development of the specifics of cooperative effort will take place at the same time. In addition to the LDC participation during the planning phase it is anticipated that some LDC researchers from the
Institute for Philippine Culture, the University of the Philippines (Los
Banos) and Central Luzon State University maybe actively involved with aspects of the field work and data collection in the Philippines.
The International Rice Research Institute is planning research on the identification and implementation of relatively specific practices for the improvement of system operation in the Philippines and other countries of Asia. The IRRI will participate in the planning workshops for this project and will include appropriate data collection in its own studies
to provide input into the comparative phase of this research.
Data analysis: The initial analytic strategy will be to examine the
field data for each field site independently. Hypotheses regarding
critical interactions will be tested with a variety of statistical tools
appropriate to the particular empirical measures available. These tech
niques may range from nonparametriC tests such as chi-square through
parametric tests such as partial and multiple correlation. In each case
the choice of techniques will be determined by the properties of the 21
identify and the conceptual thrust to empirical measurements available and test interactions. sites, the data from individual field As analysis is completed on allow the further be undertaken. This will cross-sites comparisons vill field sites. deduced or induced from specific testing of interactions are: associated with this objective b. The major activities for the to be held in each country 1. The planning workshops and details systems, specific study questions purpose of identifying test six These will be held at approximately of host-country collaboration. third country will be completed in the month intervals and therefore will produce the initiation. This activity about 18 months after project for each case and detailed research plans test procedures, questionnaires
study. of studies including the collection 2. The Philippine country be initiated approxi reporting of results will field data, analysis and within a 21-month initiation and concluded mately 6 months after project units, economic include: water use by farming period. Field data will management practices farm level, details of water (farm budget) data at the system, and opera levels within the irrigation at the various management social structures. farmer organizations and tional details of associated the data into a with the compilation of This activity will be complete
report. 2, studies, similar to Activity 3. The second Asian country and completed in the 12 months after project initiation _ will be initiated collected, compiled, data (same as 1 above) willbe following 21 months. The as first case study. and recorded in same manner 22."
4. The third Asian country studies, similar to 1 and 2 above, will be initiated 21 months after project initiation and completed at the end of the project period. Data and compilation as 1 and 2 above.
5. Integration of country studies would be initiated only if the project is extended beyond three years. This would involve an exami nation of individual country studies for conclusions which can be general ized across geographic and agricultural system regions.
c. The resource requirements include:
1. Access to the overseas field sites; our contacts with irrigation agency administrators in the countries specified insure this accessibility.
2. Faculty and graduate students in the host country; we have had continuing contact with faculty colleagues in the countries specified and have been assured of cooperati.ve efforts. The IRRI has indicated the availability of scholars and trainees from the IRRI training program.
3. Vehicles; depending upon the location of specific sites, one
or two jeeps (or equivalent) plus a motorbike would be required, along with miscellaneous small equipment, e.g. rain guages, locally fabricated. No
special equipment needs are anticipated.
The total estimated cost for objective is approximately $180,000.
Research Objective 2: To develop analytical tools and procedures for the
identification of critical system interactions suitable for use by the
professional community involved in design and operation of irrigation
systems in the developing countries.
As discussed under Research Objective 1, the number of possible
interactions influencing system performance is extremely large. Research Objective 2 will build on the understanding gained through Objective 1 by systematic analysis of the interrelationships identified and their effects on system performance is anticipated that scaler rankings of importance will be an outcome. a. The major activities associated with this objective are: 1. Development of preliminary analytical tools and procedures. Quantitative and qualitative scaling techniques will be used to develop procedures to rate variables in terms of their impact. The data from the Philippine case will be used to do this. 2. Application of preliminary procedures to a similar environ ment; refinement of the tools and procedures. The procedure developed in 1 above utilizing Philippine data will be applied to the irrigation system of the second Asian country. The results of this technique will then be compared to the data collected in that country. Discrepancies in critical variables resulting from the analytic procedure vs. the data collection will be evaluated and the procedure refined accordingly. 3. Application of the procedures to a broader context; refine ment of the tools and procedures. The refined procedure will be evaluated for extrapolation to a wider cultural environment by testing it on the third country data. 4. Adaptation of the procedures for use by the professional irrigation community. Finalizing the procedure based on the testing procedures described in 1, 2, and 3 above. b. The milestone events will be the preparation of the local working papers, the holding of the azencv workshops and preparation of the country study final reports 24
C.. No special equipment or facilities are required. Personnel needs
include the senior investigators, along with host-country colleagues.
Approximately $50,000 is estimated for this objective.
Research Objectives 3 and 4: To identify system design and operation
implications that derive from the explicit consideration of socio-economic
factors and their interaction with physical and biological factors; to
identify the planning policy implications.
a. Two types of activities are anticipated for these objec ives:
1. Analysis using country studies are expected to reveal a set.
(or sets) of variables influencing system performance. The results,of this synthesis will be a general application based on commonality of critical variables. 2. Critical review and interaction with irrigation agency design
and operation personnel and with policy level planners. b. Following achievement of Objectives 1 and 2, data on~selected systems in the UPRP command area will be obtained, using the developed procedures. Analysis will be for the purpose of identifying the design and operation implications. The reporting of these analyses and implica tions will be the indicator of phase completion. Accuracy of the iientifi cation cannot be judged until implementation of the changes under the UPRP. c. No special resource requirements other than the investigators and associated graduate students and collaborators. It is anticipated that $40,000 will be used for this effort. The general pattern of field data collection and preliminary analysis by the research teams followed by critical reaction from other researchers and end-product users, with final analysis and reporting has been used very successfully by researchers affiliated with the Cornell Rural Development 25
Committee (see, for example, the AID sponsored research on the role of local government). Three of the four principal investigators of this proposal have worked with the Rural Development Committee for a number of years.
9. OVERALL COST ESTIMATES
Total Project Cost: $278,700
Fiscal Year Estimates
FY"77 FY78 FY,79
Salaries and Wages Principal Investigators $1500 $12000, $12000 Research Assistants 20000 30000 30000
Field Research Costs 10000 15000 15000
Travel and Maintenance 12900 14000 13000
Equipment and Supplies 9000 6000 6000 Other Direct Costs 5000, 5000 5000 Indirect Costs (36.8% of-salaries and wages) 12880 15460 15460 TOTAL $84780 $97460 $96460
Cost Estimates by Objectives
The interrelationships of the objectives and the sequencing of the in-country studies make it difficult to break down by fiscal year detail
the cost.estimates for the objectives. The overall estimates by objectives
are approximately: -Objective 1: $180,000
2: 50,000
3: 15,000
4: 35,000 26
The first year emphasis will be entirely toward Objective 1; approximately 60% of the second year and 40% of the third will be for this same objective. The emphasis during tne second year will shift to
Objective 2, with approximately 25% of the costs allocated to this; this same percentage is anticipated for the third year.
Objectives 3 and 4 will represent about 15% of the second year budget and 35% of the third year budget.
10. WORK PLAN
a. Objective 1: To describe, analyze and explain the complex inter actions between the physical, biological, economic and organizational dimensions of existing irrigation systems and the relationships of these factors to overall system performance.
Completion of the first of the three sets of country studies is anticipated by the end of the second year; completion of the second set is scheduled for mid-year three. Completion of the third set is anticipated early in year four. (It is recognized that this is a three-year project and the decision to proceed with the third country set will be dependent upon review of the research progress in year one.
1. Activities major element of host-country a. Planning workshops. In view of:the cooperative effort required for this research, provision for host-country input at the planning stage is required. Prior to each set of country studies, a planning workshop will be held, to identify specific sub objectives, details of field work, etc.
b. Field data collection and preliminary analysis (Philippines).
Following the first planning workshop the field studies will take place. 27
Intensive data collection will take place at a number of communal systems in the Philippines. Analysis of system specific interactions will take place.
c. Field data collection and preliminary analysis (second Asian country). Same as for activity b; selection of appropriate country to be based upon consultations with AID.
d. Field data collection and preliminary analysis (third Asian country). Same as for activity b; selection of appropriate country to be based upon consultations with AID.
e. Integration of country studies.
2. Inputs
Principal investigators, primarily for activity a and during initial and final stages of activities b, c, and d.
Graduate students, U.S. and host-country, primarily in activities b, c, and d, though active in activity a. The budget estimates have been identified in detail by Fiscal Year (section 9) with overall estimates by objective. For the first two years, for Objective 1, the estimated total cost of $145,000.
3. Objectively verifiable progress and completion indicators Activity A. Planning conference reports Initiation of field studies
Activity B. Philippine country report and associated publications
Activity C. Second Asian country report and associated publications
Activity D. Third Asian country report and associated publications
Activity E. International symposium and report. *b. Objective 2: to develop analytical tools and procedures for the identification of critical system interactions. The achievement of
Objective I for the first two Asian countries will permit the development, of appropriate procedures.
This should be completed within the third year. Application to the third Asian case, and subsequent modification would take place in the fourth year.
1. Activities
a. Development of procedures for Philippine environment. Initial identification of critical variables and an identification procedure.
Following this development, a workshop with host-country researchers and agency representatives will be held to evaluate and refine the procedures.
b. Application and refinement of procedures. The procedures developed on the basis of the Philippine studies will be applied to the second Asian country; these will be modified to include the inputs from the second set of studies. A local critical workshop will be held for agency reaction.
c. Application and refinement of procedures for third Asian country.
Similar to Activity b; expected completion latter part of fourth year.
d. Development of generalized procedures. A pattern similar to b and c though with the broader perspective, culminating in a general critical workshop and international symposium in the fifth year.
2. Inputs
Primarily principal investigator and host-country colleagues and agency personnel. Costs are primarily related to travel and partial salaries. 29
3. Objectively verifiable progress and completion indicators
Activity A. Formal procedure document
Activity B. Revised procedure document for Asian context
Activity C. Revised procedure document
Activity D. Generalized procedure document symposium report.
c. Objective 3: To identify system design and operation implications that derive from explicit consideration of socio-economic factors and their interaction with physical and biologic factors. Most of the activity to achieve this objective will take place in the third, and subsequent years.
Completion is anticipated for the firth year, culminating in the presenta tions and discussions at the international symposium. The country specific implications will be comlleted approximately six months after completion of
Objective 1 in each country.
1. Activities
a. The analysis of results developed under Objective 1, as well as that obtained in studies by others.
b. Interaction with agency staff and administration. Formal reporting will be made through agency conferences. Emphasis will be upon local country implications. More general implications will be considered at the international symposium.
2. Inputs
Primarily principal investigators, host-country colleagues and agency personnel for the in-country activities. Budget items primarily related to travel and meetings.
3. Objectively verifiable progress and completion indicators
Reports of agency conferences, and associated documents. 30
d. Objective 4: To identify planning policy implications. This objective will receive only preliminary emphasis during the first two years of the project. Significant work will start in year three, with most emphasis during year four and five.
1. Activities a. Analysis of results to date, and identification of policy impli cations. b. Critical review and reporting. Policy implications will be explored with individuals active in irrigation planning, in a workshop format. Refinement of the implications statements. The final statements will be .xplored at the international symposium.
2. Inputs
Primarily principal investigators, host-country colleagues, and planning personnel. Budget items primarily related to travel and m etings.
3. Objectively verifiable progress and completion indicators Report of policy implications. Professional and/or scientific journal articles. MILESTONE LIFE-OFJbJECT SCHEDULE
PROJECT START OBJECTIVE/PRODUCT FY 77 FY 78 FY 79 FY 80 FY 81
Objective 1 Activity A Activity B Activity C Activity D______
Objective 2 Activity A . Activity B Activity C Activity D
Objective 3 Activity A- Activity B
Objective 4 Activity A Activity B AID 1o02.3 1., LOGICAL FRA.E'IWORK MAIRIX - PROP WORKSHEET
Atfumplioni S..mory Objecf;vely Verifl.fble Irnlieaoei !.po,ont A.3. (, ?',r . .. I A.I. C-1o A.2. Mesw - Io~©! G-1o Ac6,;- ,1n-.
1. LEC's will actively attempt to To impro--o the watet use efficiency in irri- 1. Increased acreages per unit f irrigaticn water. improve irrigation system design. gated aigricultetre and thereby increare production per unit of water. 2. Decreased waterlogging and :alinity prcblems, 2. Irrigated agriculture will continue 3. Increased production per irrigation system, to be essential to food production especially in highly populated areAs of the developing world.
P.. .P.,pi:@ 8.2. End . Poeict Stits 8.. (of r.,l,ae r use) by an To improve prccedurs for design and/or Preliminary - Utilization of r.24ised procedures 1. Sufficient concern will exist in at of irrirjation systems organization respon--ible for .1,;ign and/or operation relha!ilitatior least some design - operation incorporatinq explicit consideration of irrigation systems, aenries that there would be a of the int.ra.tiorns of critical socio- of revised willingness to try revised proce ccore)mic f.ic.'rs with the physical Intermediate - Successful application existing systems. dures. factors. procedures in at least a few would be such that Ultimate - Successful utiliz:tion of the revised 2. The procedures attain procedure by a significant numbeS of LDC design available or reasonably skills would be required and operat.ional organizations. able LDC for utilization. C.3. r,, .!,t+ I~,,utP, C.I. Ovp,.. C.2. 00"I , Wicows+ based 1. Appropriate numbers of field sites can and explanation 1. A set of propositions regarling interrelationships 1. Descripticn, analysis, identified and made accessible for on quintitative and qualitative data in form of written be of coI'al.: interactions between detailed study. phy!sical, Liolcgical, economic rnports and workshop proceedings. dimensions of 2. A research design procedure including measurement ard o:g.i:,i=,fti:nal Selected sites will represent a range technlqu!e. 2. cx!!;tinj irriJgt.ion systems. conditions appropriate for study for 3. Training Workshops complete of 2. 7nalytlcal tooal and procedures objectives. A set if qijidelines to be used by designees and project tiin 1]cn:ific,.n.-lIa and analysis of critical 4. operators in reviewing the state of planned or existing S .i t, 3. ;-t of 1,n prnv-et,:rn 'derived systems. discussion and policy alternatives dealing e:r1,Jzitly frr.', 'he voclo-cconomic dimension. 5. An issues with water resources and/or agricaltural development as 1. d,,r,i Ic. i., of elements which relate . rived from the s t-udy . t,_I ar! r., _ , 'J,_- - , D.3. r,, areI i.purt)" ; r'., 1,,r.,, D.2. Budgot/Scke.19l 1. flighly qualified contractor principal 1. ] c:cntractor personnel with Budget/Schedule achzt+.,j'irg fa i lit y. investigators will remain available. Sao detailed budget. 2. 7.T0 certr,-. funding and project 2.ouDC's will have personnel and re guianc. sourcer; to support this activity. 3. P.rticjiti.rvi pcrsonnel from LDC'o cnd UGAI.- in wrrkslops to plan specific ,s+:i s ,cei,:, data collection and .:al.'sis, nci follow-up seminars to t xtc~n:l rci1*t::. 33
PERSONNEL
Four faculty members, representing critical disciplines in the study of irrigation systems are identified as primary participants in the proposed research. Each has officially designated international components to his University responsibilities, ranging from 25% to 100%. All have had extensive experience in irrigation related work in Asia, including field research, teaching, and policy level advising to government agencies and/or the major foundations. The primary faculty are: Milton L. Barnett, Dept. of Rural Sociology, Cornell University E. Walter Coward, Jr., Dept. of Rural Sociology, Cornell University Gilbert Levine, Dept. of Agricultural Engineering, Cornell University
Leslie E. Small, Dept. of Agricultural Economics and Marketing,
Rutgers University
These primary faculty, along with the host-country collaborators, will provide the core group planning the work, directing the graduate student participants, analyzing and reporting on the research. Supporting the core group of faculty will be a Cornell faculty advisory panel representing a broader range of disciplines, who will be available for consultation and specific input as problems are encountered for which individual expertise is desired. Faculty in this group include: Dr. W. Brutsaert, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering
(Hydrology)
Dr. H. Capener, Professor of Rural Sociology (Development Sociology)
Dr. M. Drosdoff, Professor of Agronomy (Tropical Soils) 34
6r. Milton Esman, John S. Knight Professor of Government
(Institutional Development)
Dr. Howard Conklin, Professor of Agricultural Economics (Resource
Economics)
Dr. D.P. Loucks, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering
(Environmental Systems)
Dr. David Thurston, Professor of Plant Pathology (Tropical Plant
Pathology)
Dr. Norman Uphoff, Assistant Professor of Government (Local.
Government)
Dr. William Whyte, Professor of Industrial and Labor Relations
(Development.Sociology)
In addition to the faculty members, research assistants will be utilized as an integral part of the research effort. These will include advanced level graduate assistants from Cornell and both advanced and junior level graduate assistants from the host country cooperating institutions.
These will be coordinated to provide multi-disciplinary teams for each system study.