water

Article A System Dynamics Model of the Community-Based Rural Drinking Water Supply Program (PAMSIMAS) in Indonesia

D. Daniel 1,2,* , Julivius Prawira 3, Trimo Pamudji Al Djono 4, S. Subandriyo 5, Arya Rezagama 6 and Aries Purwanto 7

1 Department of Water Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CN Delft, The Netherlands 2 Department of Health Behavior, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Environment, and Social Medicine, Yogyakarta 55281, Indonesia 3 Department of Engineering and Policy Analysis, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands; [email protected] 4 Department of Environmental Engineering, Sekolah Tinggi Teknologi Sapta Taruna, Jakarta 13340, Indonesia; [email protected] 5 The Community-Based Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Program (PAMSIMAS), Magelang Regency, Mungkid 56511, Indonesia; [email protected] 6 Department of Environmental Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang 50275, Indonesia; [email protected] 7 Department of Land and Water Management, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, 2611 AX Delft, The Netherlands; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] or [email protected]

Abstract: The sustainability of the water supply program in developing countries is influenced by



 many inter-linked and dynamic factors, suggesting the need to analyse the system behaviour of the water supply program. However, no study analyses factors influencing the sustainability of rural Citation: Daniel, D.; Prawira, J.; Al drinking water supply programs holistically, and this study aims to fill that gap. This study utilized Djono, T.P.; Subandriyo, S.; a system dynamics approach based on a case study of a community-based rural drinking water Rezagama, A.; Purwanto, A. A supply program (PAMSIMAS in Bahasa) in Magelang Regency, Indonesia. Five sustainability aspects System Dynamics Model of the were considered in the model development and simulation: financial, institutional, environmental, Community-Based Rural Drinking technical, and social aspects. Eight scenario analyses related to those five aspects were conducted. Water Supply Program (PAMSIMAS) in Indonesia. Water 2021, 13, 507. The causal loop diagrams suggest that the overall loop in the system is reinforcing, meaning that https://doi.org/10.3390/w13040507 the improvement in one aspect will improve the overall condition of the system and deterioration in one aspect will reduce the overall condition of the system. Scenario analysis shows that external Academic Editor: Oz Sahin fund is critical to support the program financially, especially at the beginning of the project when the Received: 15 January 2021 piped system is being built and water revenue is still low. Scenario and sensitivity analyses revealed Accepted: 12 February 2021 that human factors, i.e., the performance of the water board and response and support from the Published: 15 February 2021 community, positively influence the sustainability of the water supply program. Additionally, the water board plays a key role in accelerating the pipe network growth. Finally, this paper argues that Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral visualising and simulating the causal relationship and dynamic behaviour of the rural water supply with regard to jurisdictional claims in program are critical for water stakeholders to better design and implement the water supply program. published maps and institutional affil- iations. Keywords: rural drinking water supply; system dynamics; Indonesia; PAMSIMAS; sustainability

Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. 1. Introduction Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. There were still 785 million or 11% of the total global population lacking basic water This article is an open access article services, i.e., the water is taken from improved sources and the collection time is less than distributed under the terms and half an hour for a roundtrip, in 2017 [1,2]. The majority of those lacking basic services conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// lived in rural areas, which points to the inequalities in water services between urban and creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ rural areas. In addition, water shortage is rapidly increasing worldwide, which is believed 4.0/). to worsen the situation [3]. These situations hamper the achievement of the Sustainable

Water 2021, 13, 507. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13040507 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/water Water 2021, 13, 507 2 of 19

Development Goal (SDG) 6.1, i.e., to “achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all” by 2030 [2]. Indonesia is still struggling to improve the access to basic water services. According to the WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) report in 2017, nine out of ten households in Indonesia had at least basic water services. In terms of inequalities between urban and rural areas, about 95% of households in urban had access to basic water services compared to 82% in rural areas [1]. While the percentage of access to the basic water services increased only 5% in urban areas, there was a significant increase in rural areas (16%) during the period of 2000–2017. The Government of Indonesia and the World Bank initiated the community-based drinking water supply and sanitation program, called “Program Penyediaan Air Minum dan Sanitasi Berbasis Masyarakat (PAMSIMAS)”, in 2007 to increase the coverage of water and sanitation services especially in peri-urban and rural areas [4]. PAMSIMAS benefited about 17.2 million people throughout Indonesia until 2018 [5]. The PAMSIMAS project is carried out at the village level and organized by a village water board committee, which is called “KPSPAMS” in Bahasa, that is responsible for planning, operationalizing and maintaining the pipe system. Therefore, the performance of the water board is very critical to ensure the sustainability of the project [6]. In this study, sustainability means the continuation of tap water services over a long period [7]. Five sustainability aspects are “required” to sustain PAMSIMAS projects, i.e. Financial, Institutional, Environmental, Technical, and Social (FIETS) [8,9]. Moreover, previous studies have identified such critical pathways or combinations of factors that influence the sustainability of rural water supply programs in the developing countries, in which all these factors are closely related to those FIETS aspects [10,11]. By considering the complexity of the water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) projects and a wide range of interconnected factors influencing the project’s outcome, Valcourt et al. [12] argue that WASH is a “complex” system and that a “system thinking approach” is needed to analyse the sustainability of the WASH projects, including the rural water supply projects in the developing countries. In the complex system domain, interactions among variables or factors in the form of feedback, either positive or negative, have to be carefully analysed to understand the dynamic of the system [13]. This feedback is considered as a chain of cause and effect relationship in which the changes in one variable result in the changes in all subsequent variables and then change the overall system behaviour or condition. The system behaviour can be dynamic, nonlinear, and unpredictable [14]. One of the methods to perform the system approach is system dynamics (SD) mod- elling [14]. SD was first introduced by Jay W. Forrester in 1961 [15]. SD modelling can be used to visualise a behaviour of the complex system, illustrate the trade-offs, and simulate and test alternative policies [16]. The basic form of SD modelling is a causal loop diagram (CLD); this is the qualitative aspect of the SD modelling and portrays the causal effect relationships among variables in a system, i.e., how each factor influences each other factor and then the whole system [16]. CLD is useful to aid stakeholders with less technical knowledge in understanding a complex system [17]. On the other hand, a stock and flow diagram (SFD) is the quantitative aspect of the SD modelling with accompanying equations that could be made based on the CLD structure. SFD aims to quantify the causal effect relationships in the system. CLD and SFD are common tools in the SD modelling or system thinking approach [14,16]. Purwanto et al. [18] argue that CLD and SFD are complementary and can provide a holistic approach to investigate complex phenomena. As such, SD modelling is one of the promising and useful approaches in applying the system thinking approach in the context of WASH domain or rural water supply projects. Despite its benefits, there are only a few studies that utilise SD modelling in under- standing the sustainability of water supply projects in rural areas. Some of them use only CLD or the qualitative approach [11,14,19,20], while others use both CLD and SFD, i.e., qualitative and quantitative approaches [21,22]. Unfortunately, previous studies do not consider the FIETS sustainability aspects in their SD models. For instance, there are no Water 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 20

Water 2021, 13, 507 3 of 19 qualitative and quantitative approaches [21,22]. Unfortunately, previous studies do not consider the FIETS sustainability aspects in their SD models. For instance, there are no social and institutional-related factors discussed in the model, despite their critical roles insocial the community-based and institutional-related drinking factors water discussed program in[23]. the In model, addition, despite there their is no critical study roles on thein sustainability the community-based of water supply drinking projects water in program Indonesia [23 although]. In addition, this topic there is is necessary no study to on supportthe sustainability the achievement of water of supplySDG 6.1 projects in this country. in Indonesia although this topic is necessary to supportTherefore, the achievement the objective of of SDG this 6.1 study in this is to country. assess the influence of the driving factors of the Therefore,sustainability the of objective the community-based of this study is rural to assess drinking the influence water supply of the program driving using factors a ofcase the study sustainability in Magelang of the Regency, community-based Indonesia. ruralMagelang drinking is a water landlocked supply regency program in using the provincea case study of Central in Magelang Java, Indonesia, Regency, and Indonesia. is surrounded Magelang by six is aother landlocked regencies regency (Figure in 1). the Magelangprovince Regency of Central covers Java, Indonesia,an area of and1085 iskm surrounded2 and consists by six of other21 sub-districts regencies (Figureand 3721). 2 villages.Magelang The Regency altitude of covers Magelang an area Regency of 1085 rang kmesand from consists 208 to 1378 of 21 m.a.s.l. sub-districts The rainy and sea- 372 sonvillages. usually The occurs altitude fromof November Magelang to Regency April (6 rangesmonths), from and 208 there to 1378is relatively m.a.s.l. little The rain rainy fromseason July usually until September occurs from (4 months). November The to average April (6rainfall months), in 2019 and was there 2593 is relativelymm [24]. The little householdrain from percentage July until September of access to (4 the months). tap water The and average access rainfall to the basic in 2019 sanitation was 2593 in mm Mage- [24]. langThe Regency household in 2019 percentage was 95% of accessand 97% to therespectively tap water [25]. and PAMSIMAS access to the project basic sanitation started in in 2008Magelang and has Regency reached in 200 2019 villages was 95% in Magelang and 97% respectively Regency [26]. [25 ]. PAMSIMAS project started in 2008 and has reached 200 villages in Magelang Regency [26].

Figure 1. The study area of Magelang Regency. The map was drawn using QGIS ver. 3.4.15-Madeira Figure 1. The study area of Magelang Regency. The map was drawn using QGIS ver. 3.4.15-Ma- (qgis.org). deira (qgis.org). 2. The Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) of the PAMSIMAS 2. TheCLD Causal comprises Loop Diagram variables, (CLD) arrows, of the and PAMSIMAS polarity signs. The arrows indicate the hy- pothesisedCLD comprises cause–effect variables, relationship arrows, between and polari variables.ty signs. The The effect arrows can be indicate eithera the positive hy- pothesisedpolarity sign, cause–effect i.e., the increase relationship of the between cause variable variables. will The increase effect can the be affected either variable,a positive or polaritya negative sign, polarity i.e., the sign,increase i.e., of the the increase cause variable of the cause will variableincrease willthe affected decrease variable, the affected or a variable.negative polarity The connection sign, i.e., among the increase several ofconnected the cause variable variables will can decrease create a the closed affected cycle, variable.which is The called connection a feedback among loop. Theseveral feedback connect looped canvariables be either can “reinforcing” create a closed (R), cycle, where whichthe overall is called cause–effect a feedback relationshipsloop. The feedback will make loop thecan systembe either either “reinforcing” grow or slow(R), where down, theor overall “balancing” cause–effect (B), where relationships the overall will cause–effect make the system relationships either willgrow stabilize or slow thedown, system. or “balancing”Another important (B), where notation the over inall CLD cause–effect is a delay relationships in which the will affected stabilize variable the system. responds An- otherslowly important to the changes notation in in the CLD cause is a variable delay in [ 13which]. the affected variable responds slowly to the changesThe CLD in was the inspiredcause variable by the [13]. previous PAMSIMAS study in Karanganyar Regency, Central Java Province [27]. The structure was then upgraded by including variables and causal connections that are relevant to Magelang Regency. The structure was confirmed internally among authors who are familiar with PAMSIMAS projects. Variables used in the CLD incorporated the five FIETS aspects of sustainability, e.g., community characteristics Water 2021, 13, 507 4 of 19

that represent the social aspect and water board performance, which is related to the institutional aspect. The complete CLD is shown in Figure2. It shows the important elements and hypo- thetical cause–effect flow in the system. There are four main loops of sub-model in the CLD, i.e., “R1–R3” (reinforcing) and “B” (balancing). The CLD indicates that the overall Water 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 20 loop in PAMSIMAS is reinforcing, i.e., the increase of one variable will increase the value of the subsequent variables and the overall conditions of the system, and vice-versa for decreases in one variable.

- Accidental + damage Water loss due to damage R1 Repair +

- + Pipe network Routine O&M + functionality R2 - - Water board - Financial balance of incentive Water the water board revenue + + + External + + - Water being supplied donor Supply demand to beneficiaries gap - + Water board + - performance Community + R3 development + Capacity of water + source to supply water + Environmental Cooperative & - Drying water conservation Water demand - supportive community + source + Climate

Pipe network + beneficiaries + Population + B Number of new growth piped built + Total - population Population without + + access to pipe network

Figure 2. Causal loop diagram of the rural water supply network (PAMSIMAS). Figure 2. Causal loop diagram of the rural water supply network (PAMSIMAS). The inclusion of many variables in CLD suggests that the sustainability of community- 2.1.based Sub-System rural drinking R1 (Damage) water supplyand R2 program(O&M): inPhysical developing Infrastructure countries is indeed complex. It involvesThe loops not of onlythe sub-models financial or R1 technical and R2 aspects are reinforcing but also variables(Figure 3). related A well-functioning to social, waterinstitutional, pipe network and environmental will reduce the aspects. supply–demand water gap in the community. Besides, The CLD shows that the financial balance of the water board is positively influenced by the more the community receives the water, the more water fee is being paid, and this will water revenue (paid by the beneficiaries) and external donors. On the other hand, financial positivelyexpenses influence are for water the board financial incentives, condition repair, of operation the water & board maintenance and the (O&M), implementation and com- of O&Mmunity and development. repair. Moreover, the water revenue is influenced by the amount of water beingTwo consumed factors influence by beneficiaries, the pipe community network development, functionality: and accidental water board and performance. deliberate dam- age (R1) and routine O&M (R2). These two loops are separated in the CLD. The loop R1 focuses on the accidental and deliberate damage that results in water loss in the system and then influences the pipe network functionality. This accidental damage, for example, pipe stealing, damage by a wild animal, flooding, and landslide, could not be prevented or minimised by O&M measures. These kind of damages have occurred several times in that area. Hence, the assumption in the sub-model R1 that was further used in the SFD is that the O&M does not influence the occurrence of accidental damage in the water supply network and should be separated in the SFD. Furthermore, the reduction of pipe network functionality will then influence the water revenue and financial balance of the water board. The lack of money will make the water board unable to carry out optimal repairs. On the other hand, loop R2 shows how the good financial condition of the water board will positively influence the routine O&M and the functionality of the pipe network. However, more routine O&M activities, such as the increasing number of pipe networks

Water 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 20 Water 2021, 13, 507 5 of 19

to be maintained2.1. and Sub-System the frequency R1 (Damage) of the and ma R2intenance, (O&M): Physical will negatively Infrastructure burden the finan- cial condition. The loops of the sub-models R1 and R2 are reinforcing (Figure3). A well-functioning The CLD wateralso implies pipe network that the will income reduce thefor supply–demandthe water board water not gaponly in comes the community. from the Besides, water revenue thepaid more by the communitybeneficiaries receives but al theso water,comes the from more external water fee donors, is being such paid, as and vil- this will lage funds or externalpositively grants. influence Finally, the financial the main condition expenses of theof the water water board board and in the sub-models implementation of R1 and R2 coverO&M repair and cost, repair. O&M cost, and water board incentive.

- Accidental + damage Water loss due to damage R1 Repair +

- + + Pipe network Routine O&M functionality R2 - - Water board - Financial balance of incentive Water the water board revenue + + External - Water being supplied + donor Supply demand to beneficiaries - gap Figure 3. Causal loopFigure diagram 3. Causal of the loop sub-models diagram of theR1 sub-modelsand R2. R1 and R2.

2.2. Sub-System R3: TwoFinancial factors and influence Community the pipe Development network functionality: accidental and deliberate dam- age (R1) and routine O&M (R2). These two loops are separated in the CLD. The loop R1 The loop offocuses the sub-model on the accidental financial—community and deliberate damage development that results is reinforcing in water loss (Figure in the system 4). PAMSIMASand requires then influences specific budget the pipe allocation network functionality. in the water This board accidental balance damage, for commu- for example, nity development.pipe stealing,In this paper, damage we by defi a wildne animal,community flooding, developmen and landslide,t as the could willingness not be prevented and ability of orthe minimised community by O&Mto support measures. or participate These kind ofin damages the PAMSIMAS have occurred project. several The times in availability of thethat water area. Hence, board thebudget assumption will positively in the sub-model influence R1 community that was further development used in the SFD is through the engagementthat the O&M of doesthe community not influence to the undertake occurrence environmental of accidental damage conservation in the water ac- supply network and should be separated in the SFD. Furthermore, the reduction of pipe network tivities (water recharge area treatment, tree planting, etc.). These actions will indirectly functionality will then influence the water revenue and financial balance of the water board. improve the replenishmentThe lack of money process will makeof the the water water sources. board unable to carry out optimal repairs. However, basedOn on the the other field hand, experience, loop R2 shows it can how be thestated good that financial the availability condition ofof the a water budget is not aboard single will factor positively that significantly influence the influences routine O&M community and the functionalitydevelopment. of There the pipe net- are two other importantwork. However, factors: more (1) water routine board O&M performance activities, such and as (2) the characteristics increasing number of the of pipe community to networkssupport or to not be maintained to support and the the program. frequency of the maintenance, will negatively burden From the fieldthe financial experience, condition. we found that water board performance is not influenced by the incentive thatThe they CLD received. also implies That that is thebecause income the for incentive the water is board relatively not only small comes and, from the water revenue paid by the beneficiaries but also comes from external donors, such as village usually, working on the water board is voluntary. The water board members are often funds or external grants. Finally, the main expenses of the water board in sub-models R1 found still doingand their R2 cover jobs, repaire.g., doing cost, O&M the maintenance cost, and water and board repairing incentive. broken pipes, with- out any financial incentive due to insufficient money in the water board finance. In PAMSIMAS, the2.2. water Sub-System board R3: is Financialresponsible and Community for communit Developmenty development in the project area. Hence, a well-performingThe loop of the water sub-model board financial—community positively influences development the community is reinforcing devel-(Figure4). opment program.PAMSIMAS requires specific budget allocation in the water board balance for community On the otherdevelopment. hand, the Incharacter this paper, of wethe definecommunity, community i.e., developmentcommunity attitude, as the willingness is an- and other variable thatability does of the influence community the tosucce supportss of or community participate in development. the PAMSIMAS A project. cooperative The availabil- ity of the water board budget will positively influence community development through and supportive community facilitates community development, and positive develop- the engagement of the community to undertake environmental conservation activities ment will reinforce(water the recharge community area treatment, characteristic. tree planting, However, etc.). this These process actions is relatively will indirectly slow, improve i.e., there is a delaythe replenishment from community process development of the water sources. to the community characteristic. Another important finding is that not all beneficiaries pay the water fee. Important reasons for that are the trust of the community in the water board, i.e., the water board, and the characteristics of the community, i.e., the community. The low trust from the com- munity could be caused by lack of transparency or misuse of the water board budget or the frequent delay of the damage repair. There are uncooperative and unsupportive peo- ple who want to get water but do not want to or are late to pay. Community development

Water 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 20

could change this perception, but it often takes quite some time. Therefore, there is a delay from community development to water revenue. As mentioned previously, community development will positively influence the en- vironmental conservation and then reduce the effect of the drought of water source in the dry season (variable “climate” in the CLD), i.e., so that there is still enough water being supplied to all beneficiaries. Furthermore, the amount of water consumed by the benefi- ciaries will affect the financial balance and then influence on the community development. The loop R3 also indicates that the water revenue may vary depending on the season. If the water source dries up in the dry season, it will reduce the amount of supplied water and then the water revenue. This finding indicates that community development (or en- Water 2021, 13, 507 6 of 19 vironmental conservation) is critical to sustaining the water board finance in the dry sea- son.

- Water board Financial balance of incentive Water the water board revenue + + + External + + Water being supplied donor Supply demand to beneficiaries gap - + Water board - performance Community + R3 development + Capacity of water + source to supply water + Environmental Cooperative & - Drying water conservation source - supportive community + Climate

FigureFigure 4. 4. CausalCausal loop loop diagram diagram of of the the sub-model sub-model financial—community financial—community development. development. However, based on the field experience, it can be stated that the availability of a 2.3. Sub-System B: Population and Water Demand budget is not a single factor that significantly influences community development. There are twoThe otherlast sub-model important factors:consists (1)of watervariables board associated performance with andthe (2)number characteristics of population, of the thecommunity number of to new support piped or built, not to and support the tota thel program.water demand (Figure 5). PAMSIMAS regu- lationFrom requires the fieldthat water experience, be distributed we found to that the waterbeneficiaries board performance at the end of is the not first influenced year of theby theproject, incentive either that part they or all received. of the targeted That is because beneficiaries. the incentive Hence, isit relativelyis often that small not and, all targetedusually, beneficiaries working on thereceive water the board water. is Based voluntary. on the The field water experience board members in that area, are oftenonly 25%found of stillthe targeted doing their beneficiaries jobs, e.g., doing have theaccess maintenance to the water and at repairing the end of broken the first pipes, year without and 5 yearsany financial is usually incentive needed due to toreach insufficient all the moneytargeted in beneficiaries. the water board It means finance. that In PAMSIMAS, there is an incrementalthe water board growth is responsible in the pipe fornetwork community growth. development The pipe network in the project growth area. (“number Hence, of a newwell-performing piped built” waterin the board CLD) positively is positively influences influenced the community by the water development board performance program. and populationOn the other without hand, theaccess character to the ofpipe the network. community, i.e., community attitude, is another variableBased that on doesfield influenceobservations, the successthe water of board community plays development.an important role A cooperative in the develop- and mentsupportive of the communitynew pipeline. facilitates Having community passionate development,water board members and positive results development in faster com- will pletionreinforce of thethe communitywhole pipe characteristic.network. However, this process is relatively slow, i.e., there is a delayAdditionally, from community the pipe developmentnetwork growth to the will community increase the characteristic. beneficiaries and thus the total amountAnother of important water supply finding to all is beneficiar that not allies beneficiaries but will decrease pay the the water population fee. Important without accessreasons to forthe thatpipe are network. the trust The of population the community without in the access water to board,the pipe i.e., network the water itself board, will increaseand the when characteristics the total population of the community, increases. i.e., This the sub-model community. also implies The low that trust thefrom PAMSI- the MAScommunity program could has be considered caused by the lack population of transparency growth or misusein its network of the water calculation, board budget e.g. cal- or culationthe frequent of the delay reservoir of the size. damage repair. There are uncooperative and unsupportive people who want to get water but do not want to or are late to pay. Community development could change this perception, but it often takes quite some time. Therefore, there is a delay from community development to water revenue. As mentioned previously, community development will positively influence the envi- ronmental conservation and then reduce the effect of the drought of water source in the dry season (variable “climate” in the CLD), i.e., so that there is still enough water being sup- plied to all beneficiaries. Furthermore, the amount of water consumed by the beneficiaries will affect the financial balance and then influence on the community development. The loop R3 also indicates that the water revenue may vary depending on the season. If the water source dries up in the dry season, it will reduce the amount of supplied water and then the water revenue. This finding indicates that community development (or environmental conservation) is critical to sustaining the water board finance in the dry season.

2.3. Sub-System B: Population and Water Demand The last sub-model consists of variables associated with the number of population, the number of new piped built, and the total water demand (Figure5). PAMSIMAS regulation requires that water be distributed to the beneficiaries at the end of the first year of the project, either part or all of the targeted beneficiaries. Hence, it is often that not all targeted beneficiaries receive the water. Based on the field experience in that area, only 25% of the Water 2021, 13, 507 7 of 19

targeted beneficiaries have access to the water at the end of the first year and 5 years is usually needed to reach all the targeted beneficiaries. It means that there is an incremental growth in the pipe network growth. The pipe network growth (“number of new piped Water 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of 20 built” in the CLD) is positively influenced by the water board performance and population without access to the pipe network.

Supply demand gap + Water board performance

Water demand+

Pipe network + beneficiaries + Population + B Number of new growth piped built + Total - population Population without + + access to pipe network

Figure 5. Causal loop diagram of the sub-model population and water demand. Based on field observations, the water board plays an important role in the devel- 3. The Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD) of the PAMSIMAS opment of the new pipeline. Having passionate water board members results in faster completionSFD consists of the wholeof stocks, pipe flows, network. and auxiliary variables. Stocks are variables that are accumulatedAdditionally, or depleted the pipe over network time, growthe.g., “water will increase board finance” the beneficiaries and “village and thuspopulation”, the total whileamount a offlow water is the supply rate toof allchange beneficiaries of the input but will and decrease output thein a population stock variable. without Auxiliary access variablesto the pipe are network. other components The population besides without stocks access and flows to the that pipe simplify network the itself communication will increase whenand improve the total the population clarity of increases.the model This[13]. sub-modelAuxiliary variables also implies include that (1) the constant, PAMSIMAS e.g., program“community has consideredcharacteristics”; the population (2) exogenous growth input in its for network the stock calculation, variable, e.g.e.g., calculation “external contribution”;of the reservoir (3) size. functions, e.g., “budget to environmental conversion”; and (4) interme- diate variables, e.g., “community development”. The SFD was developed from the CLD. Figure3. The Stock6 shows and the Flow SFD Diagramof the PAMSIMAS. (SFD) of the PAMSIMAS SFD consists of stocks, flows, and auxiliary variables. Stocks are variables that are

Percentage accumulatedbeneficiaries to total or depleted over time, e.g., “water board finance” and “village population”, population Environmental Community degradation characteristics while a flow is the rate of change of the inputBudget toand environmental output in a stock variable. Auxiliary Population without degradation conversion access to Pamsimas Percent budget for variables are other components besides stocks and flows that simplifyenvironmental the communication Community conservation Village Pamsimas development populationand improve the clarity ofbeneficiaries the model [13]. Auxiliary variables include (1) constant, e.g., Pamsimas number of water Population growth Environmental beneficiaries growth board “community characteristics”; (2) exogenous input for theconservation stock budget variable, e.g., “externalincentive water Water board External contribution board per person Percentage of performance Initial population beneficiaries who contribution”; (3) functions, e.g., “budgetpay water fee to environmental conversion”; and (4) inter- Water board incentive Population Year to month Growth period Pipe network growth rate mediate variables,conversion e.g.,growth “community development”. The SFD was developed from the

Reservoir volume Water board finance CLD.allowance Figureper person 6 shows the SFD of the PAMSIMAS. Subscription fee Retribution % of budget for Cost of cost of depreciation depreciation Projected Water consumption per Number of people Population 5th person per month in a household Water price per year 3.1. SFD’s Model Specification Repair cost Time Period cubic Max water volume O&M cost in reservoir The constants used in the SFD modelRepair were costs per estimated using actual information from factor Water supplied by source the study area. For example, information about water fee paid by PAMSIMASPortion O&M beneficiaries, Actual water being Supply declined incentivesAvailability to of the water board, andsupplied O&M costs are obtainedRepair ability from some PAMSIMAS projects from source water in reservoir

Water in from in Magelang Regency, and this information employed to developDamage duration the equation in stock source Theoretical water loss “water board finance”. In addition, thepercentage information about the frequency of accidental Water loss Drought in dry percentage season damage in the pipe system and the percentage of water loss was used to develop the

Water loss due Small damage to damage Small damage equation related to water loss due to damage. The equations used in thefactor SFD model can Big damage

be obtained in the Supplementary Materials. The CLD and SFD were developedSmall water supply using incident interval

the Vensim Pro software package]. Initial values of some variables the baseline

conditions can be found in Table1. Non-linearBig damage factor variables,Starting e.g., damage “Percentage of beneficiaries Month who pay water fee”, “Environmental degradation”,Big water supply “Pipe network growth”, and “Drought incident interval in the dry season”, use lookup function (see Supplementary Materials). Using the lookup Figure 6.function, Stock and we flow could diagram define of the the rura relationshipl water supply between network a variable (PAMSIMAS). (output y-axis) and its causes (input x-axis). For example, we made monthly variations (x-axis) of the variable “drought 3.1. SFD’s Model Specification The constants used in the SFD model were estimated using actual information from the study area. For example, information about water fee paid by PAMSIMAS beneficiar- ies, incentives to the water board, and O&M costs are obtained from some PAMSIMAS projects in Magelang Regency, and this information employed to develop the equation in

Water 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of 20

Supply demand gap + Water board performance

Water demand+

Pipe network + beneficiaries + Population + B Number of new growth piped built + Total - population Population without + + access to pipe network

Figure 5. Causal loop diagram of the sub-model population and water demand.

3. The Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD) of the PAMSIMAS Water 2021, 13, 507 SFD consists of stocks, flows, and auxiliary variables. Stocks are variables that8 of are 19 accumulated or depleted over time, e.g., “water board finance” and “village population”, while a flow is the rate of change of the input and output in a stock variable. Auxiliary variables are other components besides stocks and flows that simplify the communication in dry season” (y-axis) using the lookup function. The lookup function graphs were made and improve the clarity of the model [13]. Auxiliary variables include (1) constant, e.g., in such a way as to hypothetically reflect the relationship between variable A and B. For “community characteristics”; (2) exogenous input for the stock variable, e.g., “external example, the relationship between variables “community development” and “percentage contribution”; (3) functions, e.g., “budget to environmental conversion”; and (4) interme- of beneficiaries who pay water fee” could not be defined in a mathematical equation. diate variables, e.g., “community development”. The SFD was developed from the CLD. Therefore, we created a lookup function graph that portrays that the better the community developmentFigure 6 shows is, the SFD higher of the percentagePAMSIMAS. of the beneficiaries who pay the water fee is.

Percentage beneficiaries to total population Environmental Community degradation characteristics Budget to environmental Population without degradation conversion access to Pamsimas Percent budget for environmental Community conservation Village Pamsimas development population beneficiaries Pamsimas number of water Population growth Environmental beneficiaries growth board conservation budget incentive water Water board External contribution board per person Percentage of performance Initial population beneficiaries who pay water fee Water board incentive Population Year to month Growth period Pipe network growth rate conversion growth

Reservoir volume Water board finance allowance per person Subscription fee Retribution % of budget for Cost of cost of depreciation depreciation Projected Water consumption per Number of people Population 5th person per month in a household Water price per year Repair cost Time Period cubic Max water volume O&M cost in reservoir Repair costs per factor Water supplied by source Portion O&M Actual water being Supply declined Availability of supplied Repair ability from source water in reservoir

Water in from Damage duration source Theoretical water loss percentage Water loss Drought in dry percentage season

Water loss due Small damage to damage Small damage factor Big damage

Small water supply incident interval

Big damage factor Starting damage Month Big water supply incident interval FigureFigure 6.6.Stock Stock andand flowflow diagramdiagram ofof thethe ruralruralwater water supply supply network network (PAMSIMAS). (PAMSIMAS).

3.1.Table SFD’s 1. Initial Model values Specification of variables in the baseline conditions.

Variable UnitThe * constants Value used in the SFD model were Variable estimated using actual Unit information Value from the study area. For example, information about water fee paid by PAMSIMAS beneficiar- Initial population Person 1250 Repair cost/m3 Rp 100 ies, incentives to the water board, and O&M costs are obtained from some PAMSIMAS 6 Population growth rate/yearprojects Dmnl in Magelang 0.9% Regency, and this External information contribution employed to develop Rp the equation5 × 10 in Number of people in a Person 5 Community characteristics Dmnl 3 household Water m3 21 Water board performance Dmnl 4 consumption/person/month Subscription fee/month Rp 2000 Damage duration Month 1 Water price/m3 Rp 1000 Small damage factor Dmnl 0.15 % of budget for 8% of the water Dmnl Big damage factor Dmnl 0.90 environmental conservation board finance Number of water board Person 5 Small water supply incident interval Month 6 Incentive water board/person Rp 100,000 Big water supply incident interval Month 24 % of budget for cost of 40% of the water Dmnl Extra use of water factor Dmnl 1.2 depreciation board finance 20% of the Reservoir volume allowance Portion O&M Dmnl m3 0.09 monthly fee per person * Dmnl = Dimensionless; Rp = Rupiah; $1 ≈ Rp. 14,000. Water 2021, 13, 507 9 of 19

Variables “community characteristics” and “water board performance” have a scale from 1 (very bad) to 5 (very good). A value of “3” for “community characteristics” was used in the baseline condition representing a community that is “quite” cooperative and supportive, while a value of “4” for “water board performance” means that the performance is “good”. The model was simulated for 120 months. A stock “water board finance” is the main key performance indicator (KPI) variable in the model. We reason that a sustained community-based rural water supply is required to have a sufficient budget, i.e., budget is not zero, to perform all water board tasks. There are two inputs to stock WBF: (1) revenue, which comprises of the monthly subscription fee and water price, and (2) external contribution, which is usually provided only once at the beginning of the project, e.g., by the village office and external donors. The outputs Water 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW of the stock are various costs, including “water board incentive”, “cost of depreciation”,10 of 20 “O&M cost”, “repair cost”, and “environmental conservation budget”. The proportion for each expense was estimated from the prevalent practice in the study area. The amount of “O&M cost” is counted from the percentage of the total monthly revenue. There is no fixed fixedbudget budget for thefor the “repair “repair cost” cost” because because it depends it depends on on the the damage damage and, and, hence, hence, we we made made an anassumption assumption that that the the cost cost is is Rp. Rp. 100 100 or or 10% 10% of of the the water water price price (see (see Table Table1). 1). ThereThere is is a amaximum maximum water water volu volumeme thatthat isis insideinside the the reservoir reservoir at at any any one one time time and and that 3 thatdepends depends on theon the size size of the of concretethe concrete reservoir, reservoir, e.g., 20e.g., m 320. The m . excessThe excess water water is discharged is dis- chargedinto nature. into nature. The reservoir The reservoir size is calculatedsize is calculated by considering by considering the estimated the estimated population popula- in the tionfifth in yearthe fifth and year 20% ofand the 20% total of dailythe total water daily consumption. water consumption. AA variable variable “drought “drought in inthe the dry dry season” season” is related is related to the to theenvironmental environmental aspect aspect repre- rep- sentingresenting the effect the effect of the of surrounding the surrounding environmen environment,t, i.e., climate i.e., climate change change or anomaly, or anomaly, on the on capacitythe capacity of the of water the water source source to supply to supply wate water.r. A lookup A lookup function function was was used used to toset set the the droughtdrought value value variation variation on on each each month month (Figur (Figuree 7).7). The The drought drought pattern pattern was was made made by by con- con- sideringsidering the the rainfall rainfall pattern pattern andand thethe average average percentage percentage of of water water reduction reduction during during the rainythe rainyand and dry seasonsdry seasons in the in Magelangthe Magelang regency. regency. The The dry dry season season usually usually occurs occurs between between May Mayand and October. October. “Damage “Damage duration” duration” and and “small “small damage damage factor” factor” are are related related to theto the technical tech- nicalaspect. aspect. The The former former represents represents the the duration duration to fixto fix any any damage damage in thein the system, system, while while the thelatter latter represents represents the the percentage percentage of water of water loss loss due todue small to small accidental accidental damage damage in the in system. the system.Lastly, Lastly, the variable the variable “community “community characteristics” characteristics” is related is related to the social to the aspect social representingaspect rep- resentingthe behavioural the behavioural aspect and aspect attitude and of attitu the communityde of the community towards the towards PAMSIMAS the PAMSIMAS project, e.g., project,whether e.g., or whether not the community or not the community is cooperative is cooperative and supportive. and supportive. However, we However, realised we that realisedsome variables that some are variables related are to more related than to onemore FIETS than aspect,one FIETS e.g., aspect, “O&M e.g., cost” “O&M and “repaircost” andcost” “repair are also cost” related are also to therelated technical to the aspect technical besides aspect the besides financial the aspect. financial aspect.

0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2

% of drought in a dry season a dry in drought % of 0.1 0 123456789101112 Month Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Baseline Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Figure 7. The lookup function of variable “drought in the dry season”. Figure 7. The lookup function of variable “drought in the dry season”.

3.2. SFD’s Model Verification Prior to being applied in the scenario analysis, the model was tested through three tests: model debugging, model verification, and model validation [29]. Model debugging was performed by checking and correcting errors that hinder the model from working properly, such as the erroneous equation. Model verification aims to check the model’s consistency. It was conducted by checking the unit consistency and testing sub-models and structure. The SFD model passed the model debugging and verification process, i.e., there is no equation error and unit inconsistency. Model validation aims to identify the confidence bound in the model performance. This was conducted by confirming the structure with theory or expert, testing the model under extreme conditions, and behaviour test. The first test was conducted among authors since authors are familiar with PAMSIMAS projects. For the second validation test, the model was tested by drastically change variables related to key stocks in the system, e.g.,

Water 2021, 13, 507 10 of 19

3.2. SFD’s Model Verification Prior to being applied in the scenario analysis, the model was tested through three tests: model debugging, model verification, and model validation [29]. Model debugging was performed by checking and correcting errors that hinder the model from working properly, such as the erroneous equation. Model verification aims to check the model’s consistency. It was conducted by checking the unit consistency and testing sub-models and structure. The SFD model passed the model debugging and verification process, i.e., there is no equation error and unit inconsistency. Model validation aims to identify the confidence bound in the model performance. This was conducted by confirming the structure with theory or expert, testing the model under extreme conditions, and behaviour test. The first test was conducted among authors since authors are familiar with PAMSIMAS projects. For the second validation test, the model was tested by drastically change variables related to key stocks in the system, e.g., the initial population, number of the water board, and water consumption per person per month. The behaviour test is conducted to see whether the model outputs correspond to real-world behaviour or expectation. The validation test of the extreme conditions indicated that the model outputs behave as the general hypothesis, thereby confirming the model validity. For example, (1) drasti- cally changing the initial population drastically increased the water board finance, and (2) increased the number of water boards or the monthly incentive would drastically decrease the water board finance. In the behaviour test, the patterns of the stock “water board finance” in baseline conditions were checked (Figure8). The baseline graph shows that the budget decreased in the first year from the initial budget, Rp. 5,000,000 (≈$357). This initial budget was obtained from the external contribution at the beginning of the project. This decrease could be explained by the regular expenses despite the low income or revenue because the piped system was still being built. After the sixth month, the financial condition increases and becomes stable at around 2 million Rupiah (≈$142). The amount of water board finance is in the range of the PAMSIMAS projects in the Magelang Regency for fairly similar conditions, e.g., water price, subscription fee, initial population, etc. The fluctuation in the graph is due to the variation of the water supply in a year, i.e., dry and rainy seasons and accidental small and big damages. There are four valleys, i.e., the finance goes down sharply, in the graph which indicate the occurrence of big damage every 24 months. The finance goes down because the revenue is parallel to the amount of water being supplied to the community. Figure8 indicates that 47% of the targeted population has access to the piped system in the first year, and this reaches 95% in the fifth year, which is fairly similar to the common conditions in the Magelang Regency. The developed model was then considered sufficient to serve the research purpose.

3.3. Scenario Analyses Scenario analyses were simulated upon model validation to see the pattern of the related key performance indicator variables in some scenarios. We modified eight vari- ables related to FIETS aspects, one at a time, and compared the results with the baseline conditions in Table1. The input parameters for all scenarios are shown in Table2. For example, we manually changed the input value in the variable “water board performance” from 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 (from very bad to very good). We then compared the results in the KPI variable or stock “water board finance”. The variation of the values represents worse or better conditions of that variable. We chose variables that can be translated into practical recommendations in the field. Variables “external contribution”, “O&M cost” (operation and maintenance), and “repair cost” are related to the financial aspect. A variable “Water board performance” is related to the institutional aspect representing the overall performance of the water board in carrying out their jobs and responsibilities. All these patterns were then translated into policy recommendations to sustain the PAMSIMAS project. Water 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of 20

the initial population, number of the water board, and water consumption per person per month. The behaviour test is conducted to see whether the model outputs correspond to real-world behaviour or expectation. The validation test of the extreme conditions indicated that the model outputs behave as the general hypothesis, thereby confirming the model validity. For example, (1) drasti- cally changing the initial population drastically increased the water board finance, and (2) increased the number of water boards or the monthly incentive would drastically decrease the water board finance. In the behaviour test, the patterns of the stock “water board finance” in baseline con- ditions were checked (Figure 8). The baseline graph shows that the budget decreased in the first year from the initial budget, Rp. 5,000,000 (≈$357). This initial budget was ob- tained from the external contribution at the beginning of the project. This decrease could be explained by the regular expenses despite the low income or revenue because the piped system was still being built. After the sixth month, the financial condition increases and becomes stable at around 2 million Rupiah (≈$142). The amount of water board finance is in the range of the PAMSIMAS projects in the Magelang Regency for fairly similar condi- tions, e.g., water price, subscription fee, initial population, etc. The fluctuation in the graph is due to the variation of the water supply in a year, i.e., dry and rainy seasons and acci- dental small and big damages. There are four valleys, i.e., the finance goes down sharply, in the graph which indicate the occurrence of big damage every 24 months. The finance goes down because the revenue is parallel to the amount of water being supplied to the community. Figure 8 indicates that 47% of the targeted population has access to the piped Water 2021, 13, 507 system in the first year, and this reaches 95% in the fifth year, which is fairly similar11 to of the 19 common conditions in the Magelang Regency. The developed model was then considered sufficient to serve the research purpose.

Figure 8. TheThe stocks: stocks: (a) (watera) water board board finance finance and and(b) percentage (b) percentage of PAMSIMAS of PAMSIMAS beneficiaries beneficiaries com- comparedpared to the to total the total population population in baseline in baseline conditions. conditions. Simulation Simulation is for is 120 for 120months. months.

Table 2. Input parameters for the simulation of scenario analyses.

External Portion O&M Repair Cost Water Board Drought in Damage Small Community Scenarios Contribution Cost per Cubic Performance the Dry Duration Damage Characteristics (×106) (Rp) (dmnl) (Rp/m3) (dmnl) Season (dmnl) (month) Factor (dmnl) (dmnl) Baseline 5 0.2 100 4 Lookup 1 0.15 3 1 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 15 0.05, 0.1, 0.2, 2 0.3, 0.4 50, 100, 200, 3 500, 750 4 1–5 Lookup 5 variation 6 0.5, 1, 2, 3, 6 0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 7 0.3, 0.45 8 1–5 dmnl = dimensionless; empty cells mean that the values are similar to the baseline conditions.

The results of the scenario analyses are shown in Figure9. Overall, all patterns confirmed the general hypothesis that better conditions or scenarios result in higher water board finance, e.g., the lower the “repair cost”, the higher the water board finance is (Figure9c). The pattern shows that external fund contributions at the beginning of the PAMSIMAS project affect it only at the beginning of the project. Higher external contributions will support the water board finance to stay positive at the beginning of the project. The results of all scenarios of external contribution are similar after the tenth month or when about 40% of the targeted population have access to the piped system. WaterWater 20212021, 13,, 13x ,FOR 507 PEER REVIEW 1213 of 19of 20

Figure 9. Implications of various scenarios of eight variables (a–h; see Table2) on water board finance. Simulation is for Figure 9. Implications of various scenarios of eight variables (a–h; see Table 2) on water board finance. Simulation is for 120120 months. months. Scenarios in variables “water board performance = 1” and “community characteristics = 1” keepThe the CLD water structure board finance indicates zero that for tenwater years, board which performance is not found is critical in other for variables the pipe sce- net- worknarios. growth The effect (Figure of water 5). The board “percentage performance beneficiaries is more prominent to total inpopulation” the low score, graph i.e., score(Figure 10a)1 and confirmed 2 generate this almost relationship, zero finance, i.e., the while high theer the effect score of community of water board characteristics performance, is in the morethe highpeople score, have i.e., access score 5to results piped in water. finance of more than 3 million Rupiah. These patterns indicateThere that is also human an influence factors are of critical community for a successful characteristics PAMSIMAS on environmental project in Indonesia. conserva- tionThe in water the system. board performance Figure 10b implies is critical that to keepingthe higher the the finance score above of community zero Rupiah, characteris- while tics,community e.g., they characteristics are proactive are to alsoconserve important the water for maintaining recharge area, a higher the financiallower the condition. reduction of waterThe supply CLD structurein the dry indicates season is. that water board performance is critical for the pipe networkFigure growth 9f shows (Figure that the5). longer The “percentage the damage beneficiaries period, the tolower total the population” water board graph finance is.(Figure This can 10 a)beconfirmed explained thisby the relationship, smaller volume i.e., the of higher water thebeing score supplied of water due board to water perfor- loss. Thismance, indicates the more that people the water have board access cannot to piped delay water. the repair procedure in the system. The simulation also shows that bigger damage will reduce the water being supplied (Figure 10c) and water board finance (Figure 9g). Furthermore, drought in the dry season and the water being supplied was inversely related, i.e., the actual water supplied is lower if the level of drought increase (Figure 10d) and then will decrease the water board finance (Fig- ure 9e).

WaterWater 20212021, 13, ,13 x, FOR 507 PEER REVIEW 1314 of 19of 20

FigureFigure 10. 10. ImplicationsImplications of of va variousrious scenarios (see(see TableTable2). 2). Simulation Simulation is foris for 120 120 months. months.

3.4. SensitivityThere is also Analysis an influence of community characteristics on environmental conservation in the system. Figure 10b implies that the higher the score of community characteristics, Finally, the Monte Carlo univariate sensitivity analyses with 200 simulations were e.g., they are proactive to conserve the water recharge area, the lower the reduction of conductedwater supply to see in thethe dryeffect season of changes is. in parameters or input values on the model’s output and identifyFigure9 fthe shows most that influential the longer variable. the damage Variable period, “drought the lower in the the water dry boardseason” finance was not usedis. This because can be a explained variable bywith the the smaller lookup volume func oftion water cannot being be supplied included due in to the water sensitivity loss. analysisThis indicates in the VENSIM that the water software. board The cannot min delayand max the repairvalues procedure of the sensitivity in the system. analysis The were 25%simulation of the initial also shows value, that e.g., bigger the damagemin-max will values reduce of the variable water being“repair supplied cost per(Figure cubic” 10 c)is 75 andand 125 water Rp/m board3, respectively, finance (Figure which9g). Furthermore,is 25% of the drought initial value in the = dry 100 season Rp/m and3. the water beingFrom supplied the sensitivity was inversely analysis, related, we i.e., found the actual that variable water supplied “water isboard lower performance” if the level of is thedrought most sensitive increase (Figure variable, 10d) i.e., and it thenis shown willdecrease by the graph the water with board the widest finance band, (Figure followed9e). by a variable “community characteristics”, while other variables have a relatively small 3.4. Sensitivity Analysis effect on the “water board finance” (Figure 11). Therefore, “water board performance” was theFinally, “leverage the Monte point” Carlo in the univariate system, i.e., sensitivity a variable analyses where with small 200 changes simulations can result were in bigconducted changes to in see the the system effect [30], of changes and these in parameters need more or priority input values in the on PAMSIMAS the model’s outputproject. and identify the most influential variable. Variable “drought in the dry season” was not used because a variable with the lookup function cannot be included in the sensitivity analysis in the VENSIM software. The min and max values of the sensitivity analysis were 25% of the initial value, e.g., the min-max values of variable “repair cost per cubic” is 75 and 125 Rp/m3, respectively, which is 25% of the initial value = 100 Rp/m3. From the sensitivity analysis, we found that variable “water board performance” is the most sensitive variable, i.e., it is shown by the graph with the widest band, followed by a variable “community characteristics”, while other variables have a relatively small effect on the “water board finance” (Figure 11). Therefore, “water board performance” was the “leverage point” in the system, i.e., a variable where small changes can result in big changes in the system [30], and these need more priority in the PAMSIMAS project.

Water 2021,, 13,, x 507 FOR PEER REVIEW 1514 of of 20 19

FigureFigure 11. 11. MonteMonte Carlo Carlo sensitivity sensitivity analysis analysis results results for for seven seven variables variables (a– (ga)– ong) onwater water board board finance. finance. Simulation Simulation is for is 120 for months.120 months.

4.4. Implications Implications ToTo the the best best of of our our knowledge, knowledge, this this is the is thefirst first study study that thatsimulates simulates the dynamic the dynamic rela- tionshiprelationship of a rural of a ruralwater water supply supply program program in developing in developing countries countries by considering by considering the FI- ETSthe FIETSsustainability sustainability aspects. aspects. This study This contributes study contributes to the application to the application of the system of the thinking system approachthinking approachin the WASH in the domain. WASH Furthermore, domain. Furthermore, since all PAMSIMAS since all PAMSIMAS programs programs follow a similarfollow aapproach, similar approach, the dynamic the dynamicbehaviour behaviour and practical and practical recommendatio recommendationsns of this model of this maymodel represent may represent all PAMSIMAS all PAMSIMAS programs programs in Indonesia, in Indonesia, e.g., the e.g., supply the supplyfrom water from source water decreasesource decrease during duringthe dry the season dry season and community and community characteristics characteristics positively positively influence influence the waterthe water board board finance. finance. Furthermore,Furthermore, we we argue argue that that visualising visualising relevant relevant sustainability sustainability factors factors in the in CLD the CLD and SFDand allows SFD allows us to usunderstand to understand a big apicture big picture view viewof the of situation, the situation, e.g., to e.g., understand to understand how how factors are interconnected, and the possible behaviour or pattern of the system given factors are interconnected, and the possible behaviour or pattern of the system given some some scenarios. This visualisation is important to help people from different backgrounds, scenarios. This visualisation is important to help people from different backgrounds, tech- technical levels, or education to comprehend the complexity behind the rural water supply nical levels, or education to comprehend the complexity behind the rural water supply system in their area [31]. system in their area [31].

Water 2021, 13, 507 15 of 19

Table3 summarises policy or practical recommendations translated from the scenario analyses. Each practical recommendation could be used on a check-list or best practices guideline for community-based rural drinking water supply programs, not only in Indone- sia but in other developing countries.

Table 3. Practical recommendations to PAMSIMAS project.

Variables in the System Sustainability Aspect Practical Recommendations

External contribution Financial • Look for external fund contribution, CSR funds from industry.

• Plan and implement O&M at an affordable price level for the community. Portion O&M Financial, technical • Prioritise the O&M on critical or prone points in the system, especially if the budget is limited. • Use locally available spare parts.

• Implement cost-effective repair methods, e.g., use cheaper (but Repair cost per cubic Financial, technical still good quality) alternative spare parts.

• Select competent, passionate, and incorruptible water board members. Water board performance Institution • Conduct regular training and mentoring by the PAMSIMAS district facilitator.

• Make a rotation schedule for water collection in the dry season. Drought in the dry season Environmental • Implement and promote water-saving, especially during the dry season.

Damage duration Technical • Repair damage as soon as possible.

• Make a list of potential causes of accidental damage and apply Small damage factor Technical relevant protections in the system.

• Involve the community in the whole PAMSIMAS process. Community characteristics Social • Conduct behavioural intervention.

According to the system approach perspective, each factor plays its role in the system, and ignoring one aspect of them will hinder the sustainability of the water services. This emphasizes the need for improving the whole system [14]. However, since many factors are related to the water board, e.g., external contribution, portion O&M, water board performance, etc., we confirm a previous study arguing that strong community institutions (mainly referring to water board performance) are necessary to keep the piped system functioning over time [32,33]. Mentoring of the village water board by the PAMSIMAS district facilitator could be an option to ensure that the water board has sufficient capacity to efficiently manage the piped system, e.g., repair broken piped or implement cost-effective O&M [20]. In the case of the PAMSIMAS program, we highlight the need to find passionate water board members. Individual or group performance is influenced by their motivation to con- duct their jobs, as indicated in another context outside water [34]. We argue that this issue, i.e., passionate water board members, is critical since there are many PAMSIMAS programs Water 2021, 13, 507 16 of 19

not paying the water board members, i.e., the village water board work voluntarily, which is mainly due to insufficient water board finance. This study also indicates that the PAMSIMAS project needs external funding support to prevent lack of money in the water board’s finances. External funding support has been mentioned as critical to sustaining the rural water supply program [35,36]. This is especially useful at the beginning of the project, i.e., when the system is still being built and revenue is low. In the case of PAMSIMAS, the water board is responsible for looking for external funds. Therefore, the issue of passionate water board members becomes critical. An example of the external fund is corporate social responsibility (CSR) funds from industry. CSR funds have been used on some occasions in Indonesia to develop a piped water system in a village [37]. Another suggestion is to transform the village water board into one of the business units of the village-owned enterprises, so-called BUMDES in Bahasa, with the aim that the water board can be managed professionally, get fixed financial supports from the village, and generate profit [38,39]. However, this transformation should be carefully conducted as it is prone to conflict of interest [40]. The model also simulates the important role of the community in sustaining the rural drinking water supply program, as also mentioned by other studies [23]. Community involvement and empowerment are necessary to make sure the beneficiaries or target group fully support the project to increase the sense of ownership and then willingness to contribute financially [10]. Another important community factor is the behavioural aspect. A previous report mentioned that many WASH programs in Indonesia failed due to an infrastructure-centric approach that ignores the behavioural aspect of the target group [6]. A behavioural change promotion is actually one of the initial activities of the PAMSIMAS program before the construction of the piped distribution system. However, ineffective promotion often occurs because of the rush to immediately construct the system. Hence, we highlight the importance of appropriate and effective behavioural intervention before starting the PAMSIMAS project. Kelly et al. [41] mention the importance of considering the seasonal changes, i.e., dry and rainy season, in availability and water demand in the rural water supply system. They found that a system breakdown often occurs in the rainy season (which affects the water availability), and people change the water source depending on the season, which influences the water board finance (water demand). However, our model only focuses on the variation of water availability, especially in the dry season, i.e., according to the variable “drought in the dry season”. The PAMSIMAS program actually considers the seasonal variation of the water source used, i.e., it takes into account the water reduction in the dry season. However, human factors, i.e., land use and environmental destruction surrounding the water source or recharge area, often worsen the situation. Therefore, as also implied in our model structure, the water board and community have to be proactive in protecting the environment around the water source or recharge area to minimize the water reduction in the water source. Previous studies indicate that having a good financial scheme and management is crucial to sustaining rural water supply programs [10,32]. This includes designing cost- effective O&M and repair. However, obtaining original and high-quality spare parts in isolated or remote areas is often challenging. There is an inequality of economic growth and goods distribution due to geographical and infrastructure variation in Indonesia [42]. This situation results in high prices for spare parts for O&M and repair. Therefore, innovations using locally available spare parts, e.g., not original but of a good quality, are critical to reducing the O&M and repair costs, especially in isolated or remote areas. There are some recommendations for future research. First, seasonal variation of the water source used by the community should be further modelled when we talk about water supply in rural areas since studies have found that people may change their water source seasonally [41,43]. Second, expanding the model by including WASH-related behaviour variables, such as household water treatment practice, use of sanitation facility, and hand- Water 2021, 13, 507 17 of 19

washing behaviour, could help us to better understand the dynamic influence of the piped water supply on those behaviours. Third, there is a need to deeply analyse the effect of non-linear variables, such as water board performance or community characteristics, on the overall system behaviour, which then can improve and validate the model.

5. Conclusions This study demonstrates the application of system dynamics in explaining the sus- tainability of the water supply system in developing countries using a case study in the Magelang Regency in Indonesia. The illustration of the inter-linked factors influencing the sustainability of a community-based rural drinking water supply program in Indonesia was shown by the causal loop diagram. Furthermore, the stock and flow diagram simulates the dynamic relationship among those factors. Scenario analyses using 8 variables related to financial, institutional, environmental, technical, and social sustainability aspects were conducted. Through the scenario and sensitivity analyses, we found that the water board plays a significant role in accelerating pipe network growth and sustaining the PAMSIMAS program. Furthermore, we suggest that the water board look for external funds to support the program at the early stage. Based on the simulation, community involvement and empowerment positively influenced the continuity of the PAMSIMAS program. Finally, this paper has revealed the complexity of the water supply system in developing countries, particularly in Indonesia. Unravelling this kind of complex system via a clear visualisation of each variable’s interconnectedness and via quantitative simulations is necessary for raising the awareness of all related stakeholders, such as water board, policymakers, and the community, so as to design and implement a better water supply program in their area.

Supplementary Materials: The following are available online at https://www.mdpi.com/2073-444 1/13/4/507/s1, Equations, constants, and units in the PAMSIMAS model. Author Contributions: Conceptualization, D.D. and J.P.; methodology, D.D., J.P., T.P.A.D., and A.P.; software, D.D. and J.P.; validation, D.D., J.P., S.S., and T.P.A.D.; formal analysis, D.D. and J.P.; investigation, D.D. and J.P.; resources, D.D. and J.P.; data curation, D.D., T.P.A.D., and S.S.; writing— original draft preparation, D.D.; writing—review and editing, D.D., J.P., T.P.A.D., A.R., S.S., and A.P.; visualization, D.D.; project administration, T.P.A.D. and S.S. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. Funding: This research received no external funding. Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable. Informed Consent Statement: Not applicable. Data Availability Statement: Data is contained within the article or Supplementary Material. Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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