By email to Head of Admissions

7 August 2020

Dear colleague

Summer 2020 -

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the closure of schools and colleges in Wales in March and the cancellation of GCSE, AS and A level exams due to be taken in summer 2020.

As we have developed the arrangements for awarding qualifications this summer, we have remained in close contact with fellow regulators in (Ofqual) and (CCEA Regulation). Each country has its own qualifications policy and approaches for 2020 awarding, but each of us is committed to maintaining standards, so that learners can progress with qualifications which carry the same currency as any other year.

We have established approaches to ensuring learners in Wales are awarded fair and credible grades for qualifications this summer. The approaches taken in each jurisdiction to calculate grades this summer are similar; however, the different design of some qualifications inevitably means that these approaches vary. In Wales most learners take A levels that have been developed for Wales – these retain the coupled relationship between AS and A level.

As in England and Northern Ireland, centres in Wales were required to submit a Centre Assessment Grade (CAG), and rank order, in each subject for each learner. This was, in effect, their estimate of the grade that the learner would most likely have achieved had they sat the exams. However, in the absence of any national process to ensure consistency across these grades, a statistical method of standardisation was also required.

We have worked with WJEC to consider approaches to standardisation. There are two main overall approaches used across jurisdictions this summer. Decisions over which approach should be used for which qualification in Wales are based on that which makes use of the best evidence available.

Since there are differences in approaches between Wales, England and Northern Ireland, we wanted to explain the approach taken to awarding A level grades, as well as AS level grades, in Wales this summer. We provide some details below and further details can be found in our published guide.

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A Levels – summer 2020

In Wales, the AS qualification contributes 40% of the assessment marks to the full A level. This means that there is very good evidence of prior attainment within the qualification available, which would have contributed to the grades of learners who were due to sit A levels this summer. The model we approved for WJEC to use to standardise A level grades makes use of this AS data. WJEC will calculate the most likely A level grade a learner would get based on their performance in the AS units combined with historical A2 unit performance. This approach is similar to the approach taken when learners are absent for some exams in an exam series and there is an established statistical relationship between performance in units, and this is used to calculate the full grade. This step in the process creates a set of results for each qualification in each centre. In the final stage of the process, the set of results are allocated to learners according to the rank order of learners submitted by centres. This means the final calculated grades take into account previous performance at AS level, and the judgment of teachers in a centre in relation to individual learners.

We have approved this method for use in Wales because AS results are a reliable source of evidence of prior attainment. Testing on the accuracy of this method using historical data confirmed that this was an accurate method, to plus or minus one grade. This approach is different to the approach taken to calculate A level grades in England where AS qualifications are decoupled from A levels.

There are some cases where the overall approach has been adjusted, due to issues with availability of data. Some private candidates did not have CAGs and rank order data submitted by a centre. We explored options for these learners and concluded that we would make an allowance for grades to be calculated using previous attainment data where it exists. This is outlined in our Private Candidate policy statement . However, there remain a small number of private candidates for whom a grade could not be awarded this summer, and this might be an area where admissions decisions could aim to consider alternative forms of evidence of ability. UCAS has issued guidance on Supporting Private Candidates during COVID-19. In a small number of cases, where a centre does not have any AS data, the Direct Centre Performance approach used in England has been implemented.

To note, the method used to calculate grades for A level is based on performance in AS units, therefore there is no need for the adjustment for small centres used in the other main standardisation approach this summer.

AS levels – summer 2020

At AS level, we are using the same approach that England is using for all GCSEs, AS levels and A levels. It is also being used for AS levels in Northern Ireland. This is the Direct Centre Performance approach. The process uses historical centre performance over two to three years to calculate a set of grades for the centre. This is then adjusted using mean GCSE data to account for the ability of the current cohort. The grades are then allocated to learners according to the rank order provided, as for A levels.

GCSEs – summer 2020

A combination of both approaches has been used to award grades for GCSEs this summer in Wales. For most GCSE qualifications, the Direct Centre Performance approach has been used, adjusted to account for the ability of the current cohort by using prior attainment evidence from national tests and teacher assessments from Key Stage 3. The testing on use of this data showed it to be accurate, to within plus or minus one grade.

A number of GCSEs in Wales are unitised and therefore evidence from previous units of the qualification are available. For subjects where there is consistent evidence of prior attainment from earlier units of a qualification and these units make up a substantial part of the course, then a similar approach to that used at A level in Wales has been implemented.

A levels - summer 2021

The level of disruption to teaching and learning has continued to the end of the 2019/20 academic year. This has resulted in most learners losing a substantial amount of teaching and learning time.

When initial decisions on calculation of grades for this summer were made, we established that learners in Wales who would be completing their A level courses in 2021, would not need to sit their AS exams in summer 2021. We set out that the full A level would be calculated on the basis of performance in the A2 units taken in summer 2021. This would be similar to the process for calculating A levels this summer but using the A2 unit performance instead of AS performance. We are aware that some centres deliver A levels in a linear fashion (all AS and A2 exams are taken at the end of the course) and we therefore also made provision that learners could sit the AS and A2 units, if they wished.

Since then, we have considered the requirements for some adaptations to be made to A2 assessments in order to account for time lost in teaching and learning. We set out high level criteria which required WJEC to consider appropriate adaptations that would meet the criteria that we set. WJEC has proposed adaptations to assessment for summer 2021 to comply with these requirements. In doing so, the assessment of some A levels has been streamlined. In some cases, assessed content has been streamlined and in other cases non- examination assessment have been adjusted or reduced. WJEC will publish the final adaptations by early September.

Though the adaptations may mean that the assessments have been streamlined in some cases, the A level assessments are still comparable with those taken before. No content deemed essential for progression will be streamlined and a similar balance of skills, knowledge and understanding remains. The level of demand of A level assessments remains comparable with those taken in previous years.

Results

As outlined, we expect national outcomes in GCSE, AS and A levels to be broadly similar to previous years. In order to ensure learners are not disadvantaged, the approach will be positive, but it will be balanced by the need to ensure fairness to learners past, present and future, and to not undermine confidence in the qualifications.

Higher education providers can have confidence in this summer’s results and treat them as having the same value as in previous years.

Centres cannot share learners’ CAGs with them until after results are released. If CAGs are shared with you, it is important to be aware that they will not necessarily be any learner’s final, calculated grade.

In Wales, there will not be an exceptional autumn series, so learners wishing to resit exams will need to wait until summer 2021. However, the scheduled November series where learners can sit GCSEs in English language, Mathematics, Mathematics-Numeracy and Welsh language is planned to go ahead as usual in Wales.

Appeals

Centres can appeal to WJEC on behalf of learners, as in previous years. However, appeals will only be able to be submitted on the grounds that the centre itself made an error when submitting a centre assessment grade or rank order information to WJEC, or it believes WJEC made a mistake when calculating, allocating or communicating a grade. Where errors are identified during the initial review stage, they will be corrected quickly. If the centre remains unsatisfied following the outcome of the initial review, they will be able to request an independent review.

As in normal summers, we offer a final stage of appeal, the Exam Procedures Review Service, to check that WJEC has complied with our requirements and their own policies and procedures, and properly corrected any error found.

Learners are unable to appeal on the grounds that they are unhappy with the professional judgements made at the centre to determine their Centre Assessment Grade or Rank Order. If they are concerned that the centre’s decisions may have been affected by bias or discrimination, or that the centre failed to take into account reasonable adjustments that they would have had if exams had taken place, they should follow the centre’s internal complaints process. Credible evidence of bias or discrimination or failure to take account of reasonable adjustments can be reported to WJEC to investigate as potential malpractice or maladministration. Our analysis shows that changes in attainment gaps at national level appear to be modest, but those making decisions in HE should be aware of the potential for bias.

This summer’s processes have been developed to respond to this year’s unique circumstances. This year’s outcomes at a national level are broadly similar to previous years. The process has been developed to be as fair as possible but there are inevitably some limitations to the statistical approaches used. Unlike in normal years, learners have not been able to demonstrate performance in final exams and we know some learners may have achieved different grades had they been able to take the exams. We encourage you to offer as much flexibility in your admissions processes as you can, to allow learners to progress to the courses you offer. I hope you find this information helpful. We appreciate there is a lot of information for universities to keep track of so will continue to update our website with information related to summer 2021 in Wales. If you have any suggestions for information you would find useful in future, please get in touch at [email protected].

Yours sincerely

Philip Blaker

Chief Executive