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Proceedings of the Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: United States Department of Agriculture Bottom Lines Forest Service

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Proceedings of the Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: United States Department of Agriculture Bottom Lines Forest Service Proceedings of the Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: United States Department of Agriculture Bottom Lines Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station General Technical Report PSW-GTR- 173 April 5-9, 1999 San Diego, California Publisher Pacific Southwest Research Station Albany, California Mailing address: Forest Service PO Box 245, Berkeley CA U.S. Department of Agriculture 94701-0245 (510) 559-6300 http://www.psw.fs.fed.us Abstract González-Cabán, Armando; Omi, Philip N., technical coordinators. 1999. Proceedings of the symposium on fire economics, planning, and policy: bottom lines; 1999 April 5- December 1999 9; San Diego, CA. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-173. Albany, CA: Pacific Southwest Research Station, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture; 332 p. These proceedings summarize the results of a symposium designed to address current issues of agencies with wildland fire protection responsibility at the Federal and State levels. The topics discussed at the symposium include fire economics, planning, and policy on wildfire and prescribed fire. Representatives from several international organizations presented the experiences in their countries on the same issues. Forty-five invited papers and 12 posters were presented at the symposium that described the issues and presented state-of-the-art techniques to address technical issues on fire economics, planning, and policy currently facing land and fire managers. Retrieval Terms: fire economics, fire simulation models, prescribed fire, resource valuation, strategic fire planning, wildfire costs, wildland fire policy Technical Coordinators Armando González-Cabán is Economist with the Fire Management in the Wildland/ Urban Interface Research Unit at the Pacific Southwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 4955 Canyon Crest Dr., Riverside, CA 92507. Philip N. Omi is Professor, Department of Forest Sciences, and Director, Western Fire Research Center, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523. Acknowledgments Many people and institutions contributed to the sucess of this symposium. It is difficult to list them all, but the following persons and groups deserve special recognition. First, we thank our sponsors, in particular the USDA Forest Service's Pacific Southwest Research Station, and Aviation and Fire Management staff, Washington Office, for their financial support. We also thank the Colorado State University Division of Educational Outreach for processing registrations; the International Association of Wildland Fire for providing mailing lists and advertising the activity; and the Society of American Foresters for providing continuing education credits for attending the symposium and providing advertising for the activity. Thanks to all authors during the long process of manuscript preparation, editing, and production. There are four individuals deserving special recognition: Nikki Omi for her untiring work securing the proper venue for the activity and making sure that everything went smoothly, Yang Hang for the wonderful job he did developing the symposium website, Lola Thomas for revising manuscripts once they were edited, and special thanks to Laurie Dunn for her superb job in editing all of the manuscripts for this proceedings. Proceedings of the Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: Bottom Lines April 5-9, 1999 San Diego, California Armando González-Cabán Philip N. Omi Technical Coordinators Contents Pacific Southwest Research Station Preface .......................................................................................... iv USDA Forest Service Session 1: Interagency Panel: Agency Fire Management General Technical Report Summaries ....................................................................... I PSW-GTR- 173 Philip N. Omi, Chair California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection: Fire Management December 1999 Summary .................................................................................................3 Wayne Mitchell The National Park Service Wildland Fire Management Program .....................7 Stephen J. Botti Federal Funding of Wildland Fire Management Programs: What Will One Billion Dollars Buy? ........................................................ 15 Gardner W. Ferry Session II: Large Wildfires and Wildfire Costs: How Much and Why? ...................................................19 Enoch Bell and Douglas B. Rideout, Chairs Predicting National Fire Suppression Expenditures ..................................... 21 Krista Gebert and Ervin G. Schuster Issues in Large Wildfire Suppression Cost Reduction: An Operational Perspective ..................................................................31 Richard J. Mangan Analysis of Forest Service Wildland Fire Management Expenditures: An Update .............................................................................................37 Ervin G. Schuster Assessing the Risk of Cumulative Burned Acreage Using the Poisson Probability Model ..................................................................................51 Marc R. Wiitala Analysis of Area Burned by Wildfires Through the Partitioning of a Probability Model ...................................................... 59 Ernesto Alvarado, David V. Sandberg, and Bruce B. Bare Session III: Approaches to Fire Planning in Different Agencies ........................................................69 Wayne Mitchell, G. Thomas Zimmerman, and Armando González-Cabán, Chairs The National Fire Management Analysis (NFMAS) Past 2000: A New Horizon ..................................................................................... 71 Stewart Lundgren Sensitivity of National Fire Management Analysis System (NFMAS) Solutions to Changes in Interagency Initial Attack (IIAA) Input Data .....79 Ervin G. Schuster and Michael A. Krebs An Overview of Leopards: The Level of Protection Analysis System ................ 91 Robert S. McAlpine and Kelvin G. Hirsch The Economic Efficiency of the National Fire Management Analysis System (NFMAS) and FIREPRO ................................................99 Geoffrey H. Donovan, Douglas B. Rideout, and Philip N. Omi Using Control Theory to Model the Long-term Economic Effects of Wildfire ................................................................................... 107 Hayley Hesseln and Douglas B. Rideout A Dynamic Programming Approach to Determining Optimal Forest Wildfire Initial Attack Responses ................................. 115 Marc R. Wiitala Application of Wildfire Fire Assessments ......................................................... 125 Michael A. da Luz and William S. Wallis The Development and Implementation of Forest Fire Management Decision Support Systems in Ontario, Canada ............................. 131 David L Martell, Peter H. Kourtz, Al Tithecott, and Paul C. Ward A Forest Fire Simulation Tool for Economic Planning in Fire Suppression Management Models: An Application of the Arcar-Cardin Strategic Model ............................................................... 143 Francisco Rodríguez y Silva Improving the Economic Efficiency of Combatting Forest Fires in Chile: The KITRAL System ................................................................................149 Patricia Pedernera and Guillermo Julio Session IV: Policy Evolution and Futuring ......................................... 157 Neil Sugihara, Chair Strategic Holistic Integrated Planning for the Future: Fire Protection in the Urban/ Rural / Wildland Interface (URWIN) ................................159 Glenn Snyder The Red Books of Prevention and Coordination: A General Analysis of Forest Fire Management Policies in Spain ...................................... 171 Ricardo Vélez Economic Principles of Wildland Fire Management Policy ...............................179 Hayley Hesseln and Douglas B. Rideout Reducing the Wildland Fire Threat to Homes: Where and How Much? ............189 Jack Cohen Session V: Resource Valuation Requirements in Strategic Fire Planning .................................................................. 197 Hayley Hesseln, Chair Effects of Fire on the Economic Value of Forest Recreation in the Intermountain West: Preliminary Results ......................................................................199 John B. Loomis, Jeffrey Englin, and Armando González-Cabán OWLECON: A Spreadsheet Program for Calculating the Economic Value to State Residents from Protecting Spotted Owl Habitat from Fire ....................209 John B. Loomis and Armando González-Cabán Incorporating Non-market Values in Fire Management Planning ......................217 Douglas B. Rideout, John B. Loomis, and Philip N. Omi ii USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-173. 1999. Session VI: Fuel Treatment, Prescribed Fire, and Fire Restoration: Are the Benefits Worth It? ...................227 Susan Husari and Melanie Miller, Chairs Applying Simulation and Optimization to Plan Fuel Treatments at Landscape Scales ..............................................................................................229 J. Greg Jones, Jimmie D. Chew, and Hans R. Zuuring An Analytical Approach for Assessing Cost-Effectiveness of Landscape Prescribed Fires .................................................................... 237 Philip N. Omi, Douglas B. Rideout, and Stephen J. Botti Prescribed Mosaic Burning in California Chaparral .............................................................. 243 Richard A. Minnich and Ernesto Franco-Vizcaino Restoring Fire to Southwestern
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