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I W N E A M STIT U T R R O O Amory B. Lovins Astonishing Cofounder and Chief Scientist Energy UN Economic Commission for Europe Futures Committee on Sustainable Energy Genève (by video), 28 September 2016
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I W N E A M STIT U T R R O O
© 2016 Rocky Mountain Institute + +
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Transportation Factories Buildings If a problem can’t be solved, enlarge it.
—Dwight David Eisenhower If a problem can’t be solved, enlarge it.
—Dwight David Eisenhower Volume! Production of Electrified Carbon-Fiber Cars Volume Production of Electrified Carbon-Fiber Cars
!
Hypercar Revolution 5-seat hybrid SUV 2000 virtual design (RMI with two Tier Ones) 3.6 L/100 km or 67 mpge (gasoline) 2.1 L/100 km or 114 mpge (H2), 857 kg (–53%) Volume Production of Electrified Carbon-Fiber Cars
!
Hypercar Revolution 5-seat hybrid SUV Toyota 1/X 4-seat plug-in hybrid 2000 virtual design (RMI with two Tier Ones) 2007 concept car, 420 kg (–70%) 3.6 L/100 km or 67 mpge (gasoline) 1.8 L/100 km or ~130 mpge 2.1 L/100 km or 114 mpge (H2), 857 kg (–53%) Volume Production of Electrified Carbon-Fiber Cars
!
Hypercar Revolution 5-seat hybrid SUV Toyota 1/X 4-seat plug-in hybrid 2000 virtual design (RMI with two Tier Ones) 2007 concept car, 420 kg (–70%) 3.6 L/100 km or 67 mpge (gasoline) 1.8 L/100 km or ~130 mpge 2.1 L/100 km or 114 mpge (H2), 857 kg (–53%)
VW XL1 2-seat plug-in hybrid, 798 kg 2014 low-volume production 0.9 L/100 km or 235 mpge, 798 kg Volume Production of Electrified Carbon-Fiber Cars
!
Hypercar Revolution 5-seat hybrid SUV Toyota 1/X 4-seat plug-in hybrid 2000 virtual design (RMI with two Tier Ones) 2007 concept car, 420 kg (–70%) 3.6 L/100 km or 67 mpge (gasoline) 1.8 L/100 km or ~130 mpge 2.1 L/100 km or 114 mpge (H2), 857 kg (–53%)
VW XL1 2-seat plug-in hybrid, 798 kg BMW i3 4-seat battery-electric hatchback 2014 low-volume production 2013– midvolume production, $41–45k 0.9 L/100 km or 235 mpge, 798 kg 1.9 L/100 km or 124 mpge 184-km range, 297 w/range-extender option Volume Production of Electrified Carbon-Fiber Cars
Hypercar Revolution 5-seat hybrid SUV Toyota 1/X 4-seat plug-in hybrid 2000 virtual design (RMI with two Tier Ones) 2007 concept car, 420 kg (–70%) 3.6 L/100 km or 67 mpge (gasoline) 1.8 L/100 km or ~130 mpge 2.1 L/100 km or 114 mpge (H2), 857 kg (–53%)
VW XL1 2-seat plug-in hybrid, 798 kg BMW i3 4-seat battery-electric hatchback 2014 low-volume production 2013– midvolume production, $41–45k 0.9 L/100 km or 235 mpge, 798 kg 1.9 L/100 km or 124 mpge 184-km range, 297 w/range-extender option Tripled-Efficiency Trucks and Planes
! ! Tripled-Efficiency Trucks and Planes
! ! Enabled by IT, multiple transportation methods provide a seamless, cheaper, more pleasant user experience Enabled by IT, multiple transportation methods provide a seamless, cheaper, more pleasant user experience Enabled by IT, multiple transportation methods provide a seamless, cheaper, more pleasant user experience Enabled by IT, multiple transportation methods provide a seamless, cheaper, more pleasant user experience Autonomous vehicles: from PIGS to SEALs From PIGS to SEALS
Personal Internal-combustion Gasoline Steel vehicles From PIGS to SEALS
Shared Electric Autonomous Personal Internal-combustion Lightweight Service [mobility- Gasoline Steel vehicles as-a-service] vehicles Transportation problems in China From disorganized chaos to smooth travel experience From superblock to walking distance
Graphics courtesy of Peter Calthorpe From superblock to walking distance
Graphics courtesy of Peter Calthorpe Transportation Without Oil despite 90% more automobility, 118% more trucking, 61% more flying
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Mbbl/d 10
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0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: A.B. Lovins & RMI, Reinventing Fire (2011), Chelsea Green (White River Junction VT), www.rmi.org/reinventingfire. Transportation Without Oil despite 90% more automobility, 118% more trucking, 61% more flying
Oil 25
20
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Mbbl/d 10
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0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: A.B. Lovins & RMI, Reinventing Fire (2011), Chelsea Green (White River Junction VT), www.rmi.org/reinventingfire. Transportation Without Oil despite 90% more automobility, 118% more trucking, 61% more flying
Oil EIA Savings 25
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Mbbl/d 10
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0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: A.B. Lovins & RMI, Reinventing Fire (2011), Chelsea Green (White River Junction VT), www.rmi.org/reinventingfire. Transportation Without Oil despite 90% more automobility, 118% more trucking, 61% more flying
Oil Efficiency EIA Savings 25
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Mbbl/d 10
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0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: A.B. Lovins & RMI, Reinventing Fire (2011), Chelsea Green (White River Junction VT), www.rmi.org/reinventingfire. Transportation Without Oil despite 90% more automobility, 118% more trucking, 61% more flying
Oil More-Productive Use Efficiency EIA Savings 25
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Mbbl/d 10
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0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: A.B. Lovins & RMI, Reinventing Fire (2011), Chelsea Green (White River Junction VT), www.rmi.org/reinventingfire. Transportation Without Oil despite 90% more automobility, 118% more trucking, 61% more flying
Oil Hydrogen More-Productive Use Efficiency EIA Savings 25
20
15
Mbbl/d 10
5
0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: A.B. Lovins & RMI, Reinventing Fire (2011), Chelsea Green (White River Junction VT), www.rmi.org/reinventingfire. Transportation Without Oil despite 90% more automobility, 118% more trucking, 61% more flying
Oil Electricity Hydrogen More-Productive Use Efficiency EIA Savings 25
20
15
Mbbl/d 10
5
0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: A.B. Lovins & RMI, Reinventing Fire (2011), Chelsea Green (White River Junction VT), www.rmi.org/reinventingfire. Transportation Without Oil despite 90% more automobility, 118% more trucking, 61% more flying
Oil Biofuels Electricity Hydrogen More-Productive Use Efficiency EIA Savings 25
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Mbbl/d 10
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0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: A.B. Lovins & RMI, Reinventing Fire (2011), Chelsea Green (White River Junction VT), www.rmi.org/reinventingfire. Rapid Growth of Electrified Cars !
U.S. EV sales flattened—but global sales are growing ~60%/y
Source: Tom Randall (Bloomberg), “Here’s How Electric Cars Will Cause the Next Oil Crisis,” 25 Feb 2016, http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/; see also RMI, “Electric Vehicle Charging as a Distributed Energy Resource,” in press, spring 2016 Rapid Growth of Electrified Cars !
U.S. EV sales flattened—but global sales are growing ~60%/y
Source: Tom Randall (Bloomberg), “Here’s How Electric Cars Will Cause the Next Oil Crisis,” 25 Feb 2016, http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/; see also RMI, “Electric Vehicle Charging as a Distributed Energy Resource,” in press, spring 2016 Rapid Growth of Electrified Cars !
U.S. EV sales flattened—but global sales are growing ~60%/y
Source: Tom Randall (Bloomberg), “Here’s How Electric Cars Will Cause the Next Oil Crisis,” 25 Feb 2016, http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/; see also RMI, “Electric Vehicle Charging as a Distributed Energy Resource,” in press, spring 2016
“We must leave oil before it leaves us.”
Fatih Birol Chief Economist International Energy Agency 2008 “We must leave oil before it leaves us.”
Fatih Birol Chief Economist Executive Director International Energy Agency 2008 188.5610 from https://www.thehenryford.org/exhibits/pic/2004/July.asp “I can’t wait to see what happens when our industries merge.”
188.5610 from https://www.thehenryford.org/exhibits/pic/2004/July.asp Intensity decrease has had 31× the impact of renewable growth U.S. primary energy use (quadrillion BTU/y) U.S. primary energy Intensity decrease has had 31× the impact of renewable growth
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50 U.S. primary energy use (quadrillion BTU/y) U.S. primary energy 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Intensity decrease has had 31× the impact of renewable growth
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50 primary energy use, 1965–1975 U.S. primary energy use (quadrillion BTU/y) U.S. primary energy 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Intensity decrease has had 31× the impact of renewable growth
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primary energy use if at 1975 efficiency and structure 200
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50 primary energy use, 1965–1975 U.S. primary energy use (quadrillion BTU/y) U.S. primary energy 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Intensity decrease has had 31× the impact of renewable growth
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primary energy use if at 1975 efficiency and structure 200
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100 actual primary energy use
50 primary energy use, 1965–1975 U.S. primary energy use (quadrillion BTU/y) U.S. primary energy 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Intensity decrease has had 31× the impact of renewable growth
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primary energy use if at 1975 efficiency and structure 200
1975–2015 savings energy saved by reduced intensity from intensity reduction: 150 2,208 qBTU
100 actual primary energy use
50 primary energy use, 1965–1975 U.S. primary energy use (quadrillion BTU/y) U.S. primary energy 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Intensity decrease has had 31× the impact of renewable growth
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primary energy use if at 1975 efficiency and structure 200
1975–2015 savings energy saved by reduced intensity from intensity reduction: 150 2,208 qBTU
100 actual primary energy use
50 primary energy use, 1965–1975 total renewable energy use U.S. primary energy use (quadrillion BTU/y) U.S. primary energy 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Intensity decrease has had 31× the impact of renewable growth
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primary energy use if at 1975 efficiency and structure 200
1975–2015 savings energy saved by reduced intensity from intensity reduction: 150 2,208 qBTU
100 actual primary energy use
50 primary energy use, 1965–1975 total renewable energy use 1975–2015 growth in total renewable output: U.S. primary energy use (quadrillion BTU/y) U.S. primary energy 0 72 qBTU 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 LED and PV
Sources: L: courtesy of Dr. Yukio Narukawa (Nichia Corp., Tokushima, Japan) from J. Physics. D: Appl. Phys. 43(2010) 354002, doi:10.1088/0022-3727/43/35/354002, updated by RMI with CREE lm/W data, 2015, www.cree.com/News-and-Events/Cree-News/Press-Releases/2014/March/300LPW-LED-barrier;. R: RMI analysis, at average 2013 USEIA fossil-fueled generation efficiencies and each year’s real fuel costs (no O&M); utility-scale PV: LBNL, Utility-Scale Solar 2013 (Sep 2014), Fig. 18; onshore wind: USDOE, 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report (Aug 2014), “Windbelt” (Interior zone) windfarms’ average PPA; German feed-in tariff (falls with cost to yield ~6%/y real return): Fraunhofer ISE, Cost Perspective, Grid and Market Integration of Renewable Energies, p 6 (Jan 2014); all sources net of subsidies; graph inspired by 2014 “Terrordome” slide, Michael Parker, Bernstein Alliance LED and PV
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Incandescent lamp 1879 (lm/W) efficacy Luminous 0 1996 1900 1950 2000 Years
Sources: L: courtesy of Dr. Yukio Narukawa (Nichia Corp., Tokushima, Japan) from J. Physics. D: Appl. Phys. 43(2010) 354002, doi:10.1088/0022-3727/43/35/354002, updated by RMI with CREE lm/W data, 2015, www.cree.com/News-and-Events/Cree-News/Press-Releases/2014/March/300LPW-LED-barrier;. R: RMI analysis, at average 2013 USEIA fossil-fueled generation efficiencies and each year’s real fuel costs (no O&M); utility-scale PV: LBNL, Utility-Scale Solar 2013 (Sep 2014), Fig. 18; onshore wind: USDOE, 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report (Aug 2014), “Windbelt” (Interior zone) windfarms’ average PPA; German feed-in tariff (falls with cost to yield ~6%/y real return): Fraunhofer ISE, Cost Perspective, Grid and Market Integration of Renewable Energies, p 6 (Jan 2014); all sources net of subsidies; graph inspired by 2014 “Terrordome” slide, Michael Parker, Bernstein Alliance LED and PV
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250
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150 Sodium-vapor lamp 1965 100
Fluorescent lamp 1938 50 Halogen lamp Incandescent lamp 1959 1879 (lm/W) efficacy Luminous 0 1996 1900 1950 2000 Years
Sources: L: courtesy of Dr. Yukio Narukawa (Nichia Corp., Tokushima, Japan) from J. Physics. D: Appl. Phys. 43(2010) 354002, doi:10.1088/0022-3727/43/35/354002, updated by RMI with CREE lm/W data, 2015, www.cree.com/News-and-Events/Cree-News/Press-Releases/2014/March/300LPW-LED-barrier;. R: RMI analysis, at average 2013 USEIA fossil-fueled generation efficiencies and each year’s real fuel costs (no O&M); utility-scale PV: LBNL, Utility-Scale Solar 2013 (Sep 2014), Fig. 18; onshore wind: USDOE, 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report (Aug 2014), “Windbelt” (Interior zone) windfarms’ average PPA; German feed-in tariff (falls with cost to yield ~6%/y real return): Fraunhofer ISE, Cost Perspective, Grid and Market Integration of Renewable Energies, p 6 (Jan 2014); all sources net of subsidies; graph inspired by 2014 “Terrordome” slide, Michael Parker, Bernstein Alliance LED and PV
300 White LED
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150 Sodium-vapor lamp 1965 100
Fluorescent lamp 1938 50 Halogen lamp Incandescent lamp 1959 1879 (lm/W) efficacy Luminous 0 1996 1900 1950 2000 Years
Sources: L: courtesy of Dr. Yukio Narukawa (Nichia Corp., Tokushima, Japan) from J. Physics. D: Appl. Phys. 43(2010) 354002, doi:10.1088/0022-3727/43/35/354002, updated by RMI with CREE lm/W data, 2015, www.cree.com/News-and-Events/Cree-News/Press-Releases/2014/March/300LPW-LED-barrier;. R: RMI analysis, at average 2013 USEIA fossil-fueled generation efficiencies and each year’s real fuel costs (no O&M); utility-scale PV: LBNL, Utility-Scale Solar 2013 (Sep 2014), Fig. 18; onshore wind: USDOE, 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report (Aug 2014), “Windbelt” (Interior zone) windfarms’ average PPA; German feed-in tariff (falls with cost to yield ~6%/y real return): Fraunhofer ISE, Cost Perspective, Grid and Market Integration of Renewable Energies, p 6 (Jan 2014); all sources net of subsidies; graph inspired by 2014 “Terrordome” slide, Michael Parker, Bernstein Alliance LED and PV
800 300 White LED Coal-fired steam turbine, fuel cost only Oil-fired condensing, fuel cost only 700 Natural gas CCGT, fuel cost only 250 Utility-scale solar PV, total cost 600 Onshore windpower, total cost German PV residential feed-in tariff 200 500 (Seattle-like climate)
400 150 Sodium-vapor lamp 1965 300 100
Fluorescent lamp 200 1938 50 Halogen lamp 100 Incandescent lamp 1959 1879 US$/MWh 2011 cost, fuel or price busbar Real (lm/W) efficacy Luminous 0 1996 1900 1950 2000 0 Years 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Sources: L: courtesy of Dr. Yukio Narukawa (Nichia Corp., Tokushima, Japan) from J. Physics. D: Appl. Phys. 43(2010) 354002, doi:10.1088/0022-3727/43/35/354002, updated by RMI with CREE lm/W data, 2015, www.cree.com/News-and-Events/Cree-News/Press-Releases/2014/March/300LPW-LED-barrier;. R: RMI analysis, at average 2013 USEIA fossil-fueled generation efficiencies and each year’s real fuel costs (no O&M); utility-scale PV: LBNL, Utility-Scale Solar 2013 (Sep 2014), Fig. 18; onshore wind: USDOE, 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report (Aug 2014), “Windbelt” (Interior zone) windfarms’ average PPA; German feed-in tariff (falls with cost to yield ~6%/y real return): Fraunhofer ISE, Cost Perspective, Grid and Market Integration of Renewable Energies, p 6 (Jan 2014); all sources net of subsidies; graph inspired by 2014 “Terrordome” slide, Michael Parker, Bernstein Alliance Index of U.S. Primary Energy Per Dollar of Real GDP Heresy Happens U.S. energy intensity 0.25 0.75 1.25 0.5 0 1 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 Index of U.S. Primary Energy Per Dollar of Real GDP Heresy Happens U.S. energy intensity 0.25 0.75 1.25 0.5 0 1 1975 1990
2005 Government and Industry Forecasts, 1975 Forecasts, Industry and Government 2020 2035 2050 Index of U.S. Primary Energy Per Dollar of Real GDP Heresy Happens U.S. energy intensity 0.25 0.75 1.25 0.5 0 1 1975
1990
Foreign Lovins, 1976 Fall , airs ff A
2005 Government and Industry Forecasts, 1975 Forecasts, Industry and Government 2020 2035 2050 Index of U.S. Primary Energy Per Dollar of Real GDP Heresy Happens U.S. energy intensity 0.25 0.75 1.25 0.5 0 1
1975 Actual
1990
Foreign Lovins, 1976 Fall , airs ff A
2005 Government and Industry Forecasts, 1975 Forecasts, Industry and Government 2020 2035 2050 Index of U.S. Primary Energy Per Dollar of Real GDP Heresy Happens U.S. energy intensity 0.25 0.75 1.25 0.5 0 1
1975 Actual
1990
Foreign Lovins, 1976 Fall , airs ff A
2005 Government and Industry Forecasts, 1975 Forecasts, Industry and Government
2020
Reinventing Fire 2011 , Reinventing 2035 2050 Lovins House, Old Snowmass, Colorado (1983) Lovins House, Old Snowmass, Colorado (1983) Lovins House, Old Snowmass, Colorado (1983) Lovins House, Old Snowmass, Colorado (1983) Lovins House, Old Snowmass, Colorado (1983) U.S. buildings: 3–4× energy productivity worth 4× its cost (site energy intensities in kWh/m2-y; U.S. office median ~293) U.S. buildings: 3–4× energy productivity worth 4× its cost (site energy intensities in kWh/m2-y; U.S. office median ~293)
~277➝173 (–38%) 2010 retrofit U.S. buildings: 3–4× energy productivity worth 4× its cost (site energy intensities in kWh/m2-y; U.S. office median ~293)
~277➝173 (–38%) 284➝85 (–70%) 2010 retrofit 2013 retrofit U.S. buildings: 3–4× energy productivity worth 4× its cost (site energy intensities in kWh/m2-y; U.S. office median ~293)
~277➝173 (–38%) 284➝85 (–70%) ...➝108 (–63%) 2010 retrofit 2013 retrofit 2010–11 new U.S. buildings: 3–4× energy productivity worth 4× its cost (site energy intensities in kWh/m2-y; U.S. office median ~293)
~277➝173 (–38%) 284➝85 (–70%) ...➝108 (–63%) ...➝≤50 (–83% to –85%) 2010 retrofit 2013 retrofit 2010–11 new 2015 new U.S. buildings: 3–4× energy productivity worth 4× its cost (site energy intensities in kWh/m2-y; U.S. office median ~293)
~277➝173 (–38%) 284➝85 (–70%) ...➝108 (–63%) ...➝≤50 (–83% to –85%) 2010 retrofit 2013 retrofit 2010–11 new 2015 new
Yet all the technologies in the 2015 example existed well before 2005! 80% energy savings in Hyderabad office, lower capex
Infosys DSB1 (2009): world’s largest side-by-side HVAC experiment Radiant side (11,152 m2): 66 kWh/m2-y (–80%), capex –9%
Courtesy of Peter Rumsey PE FASHRAE (Senior Advisor, RMI) and Rohan Parikh (Infosys, Bangalore) BAM’s unsubsidized mass retrofit of Dutch public housing
Before: 5 units, each with annual energy bills ~€1.5–2k
After: net-zero-energy, expected to be financed just from energy savings by industrializing the €40–60k/unit retrofit
Radical Efficiency motors, pumps, and pipes Saving Electricity motors, pumps, and pipes Less Capital Investment smaller equipment
100 Energy units
-70% -9% -12% -55% -20% Power Plant Power Grid Motor/Drivetrain Pump/Throttle Pipe
10% Delivered flow 100 Energy units
-70% -9% -12% -55% -20% Power Plant Power Grid Motor/Drivetrain Pump/Throttle Pipe
5 % Delivered flow 50 Energy units
-70% -9% -12% -55% -20% Power Plant Power Grid Motor/Drivetrain Pump/Throttle Pipe
5 % Delivered flow radically efficient industrial redesign
Netherlands: community connection $ Utility revenues Distributed Efficiency $ renewables Utility revenues Integrative Customer design preferences
Distributed Efficiency $ renewables Utility revenues Flexible demand
Integrative Customer design preferences
Distributed Efficiency $ renewables Utility revenues
Storage (including EVs) Flexible demand
Integrative Customer design preferences
Distributed Efficiency $ renewables Utility revenues
Regulatory New financial and shifts business models
Storage (including EVs) $ Utility revenues Integrative design
Efficiency $ Utility revenues Australia national electricity market Actual vs. forecast electricity demand 260 1.8 2010 2011
240 1.6
GDP (by calendar year) 2012 220 1.4 2013
200 2015 1.2 Historical 2014
Annual electricity use (TWh) 180 1 real GDP (billion 2011 Australian Dollars) real 160 0.8 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Inspiration: M. Liebreich, keynote, Bloomberg New Energy Finance summit, April 2015. GDP data: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook database, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/weodata/ download.aspx Historical and forecast electricity use: Australian Energy Market Operator, National Electricity Forecasting Report 2010–2015, http://www.aemo.com.au/AEMO%20Home/Electricity/Planning/Forecasting Japan replaced 56% of nuclear loss with savings* and renewables in 2010–2015
*The reduced demand includes technical efficiency, behavioral change, and some distributed generation or cogeneration from natural gas, forest wastes, solar power, etc. in industry and in big buildings. Such sources are not yet well measured in Japan, but their total output is material and rising. $ Utility revenues Distributed $ renewables Utility revenues Flexible demand
Distributed $ renewables Utility revenues
Storage (including EVs) Renewable Energy’s Costs Continue to Plummet Wind and photovoltaics: U.S. generation-weighted-average Power Purchase Agreement prices, by year of signing
x levelized 2014 US$/MWh Renewable Energy’s Costs Continue to Plummet Wind and photovoltaics: U.S. generation-weighted-average Power Purchase Agreement prices, by year of signing 250
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100 levelized 2014 US$/MWh 50
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Renewable Energy’s Costs Continue to Plummet Wind and photovoltaics: U.S. generation-weighted-average Power Purchase Agreement prices, by year of signing 250
200 U.S. wholesale power price range 150 x
100 levelized 2014 US$/MWh 50
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Renewable Energy’s Costs Continue to Plummet Wind and photovoltaics: U.S. generation-weighted-average Power Purchase Agreement prices, by year of signing 250
200 U.S. wholesale power price range 150 x
100 levelized 2014 US$/MWh 50
wind PPAs
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Renewable Energy’s Costs Continue to Plummet Wind and photovoltaics: U.S. generation-weighted-average Power Purchase Agreement prices, by year of signing 250
utility-scale solar PPAs 200 U.S. wholesale power price range 150 x
100 levelized 2014 US$/MWh 50
wind PPAs
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Renewable Energy’s Costs Continue to Plummet Wind and photovoltaics: U.S. generation-weighted-average Power Purchase Agreement prices, by year of signing 250
utility-scale solar PPAs 200 U.S. wholesale power price range 150 x lowest unsubsidized world bids
100 levelized 2014 US$/MWh 50 wind PPAs ** ** 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Best resources far away, or adequate resources nearby? ᛣᬪᬱᬮฎ੪ࣈݐ
2008 2013 2013 2015
400 W/m2, 80m 210–320 W/m2, 80m 150 W/m2, 110m 150 W/m2, 140m
2008–15: TWh/y +67%
US Department of Energy, Enabling Wind Power Nationwide, May 2015, DOE/EE-1218 Best resources far away, or adequate resources nearby? ᛣᬪᬱᬮฎ੪ࣈݐ
US Department of Energy, Enabling Wind Power Nationwide, May 2015, DOE/EE-1218 Capacity additions (GW) Global powergenerationcapacityadditions,2012–30 100 200 300 0 2012 106 Coal Gas Oil Nuclear 2013 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, redrawn from Michael Liebreich’s Summit Keynote, 7April 2014 87 Forecast 2015 78 2020 64 2025 52 2030 39 100 200 300 0 2012 93 Wind Solar Hydro Biomass andwaste Other 2013 100 2015 Forecast 146 2020 181 2025 225 2030 290 0 GW-y “Cathedral” Photovoltaics 0 GW-y
Years 0 10 1 3 GW-y “Cathedral” Photovoltaics 45 GW-y
Years 1 0
Variable Renewables Can Be Forecasted At Least as Accurately as Electricity Demand French windpower output, December 2011: forecasted one day ahead vs. actual Variable Renewables Can Be Forecasted At Least as Accurately as Electricity Demand French windpower output, December 2011: forecasted one day ahead vs. actual
5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5
GW 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Variable Renewables Can Be Forecasted At Least as Accurately as Electricity Demand French windpower output, December 2011: forecasted one day ahead vs. actual
5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5
GW 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Variable Renewables Can Be Forecasted At Least as Accurately as Electricity Demand French windpower output, December 2011: forecasted one day ahead vs. actual
5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5
GW 2 1.5 1 0.5 Source: Bernard Chabot, 10 April 2013, Fig. 7, www.renewablesinternational.n 0 et/wind-power-statistics-by-the- hour/150/505/61845/, data from French TSO RTE
! !
12% Downtime 10% Downtime ! !
12% Downtime 10% Downtime ! !
12% Downtime 10% Downtime
Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation ERCOT power pool, Texas summer week, 2050 (RMI hourly simulation)
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Day Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation ERCOT power pool, Texas summer week, 2050 (RMI hourly simulation)
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Day Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation ERCOT power pool, Texas summer week, 2050 (RMI hourly simulation)
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Day Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation ERCOT power pool, Texas summer week, 2050 (RMI hourly simulation)
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Day Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation ERCOT power pool, Texas summer week, 2050 (RMI hourly simulation)
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Day Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation ERCOT power pool, Texas summer week, 2050 (RMI hourly simulation)
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Day Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation ERCOT power pool, Texas summer week, 2050 (RMI hourly simulation)
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Day Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation ERCOT power pool, Texas summer week, 2050 (RMI hourly simulation)
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50
Original load 40 Load after efficiency Wind (37 GW) Solar (25 GW) 30 Geothermal etc.
GW Biomass/biogas HVAC ice/EV storage 20 Storage recovery Demand response Spilled power (~5%) 10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Day Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation Europe, 2014 renewable % of total electricity consumed
Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation Europe, 2014 renewable % of total electricity consumed
27% Germany (2015 peak 78%) 59% Denmark (33% wind; 2013 windpower peak 136%—55% for all December) 27% Germany (2015 peak 78%) 50% Scotland 59% Denmark (33% wind; 2013 windpower peak 136%—55% for all December) 27% Germany (2015 peak 78%) 50% Scotland 59% Denmark (33% wind; 2013 windpower peak 136%—55% for all December) 27% Germany (2015 peak 78%)
46% Spain (including 21% wind, 14% hydro, 5% solar) 50% Scotland 59% Denmark (33% wind; 2013 windpower peak 136%—55% for all December) 27% Germany (2015 peak 78%) 64% Portugal (peak 100% in 2011; 70% for the whole first half of 2013, incl, 26% wind & 34% hydro; 17% in 2005) 46% Spain (including 21% wind, 14% hydro, 5% solar) Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation Europe, 2014 renewable % of total electricity consumed
Grid flexibility supply curve (all values shown are conceptual and illustrative) cost distributed electricity storage thermal storage fossil- dispatchable bulk fueled diversify renewables and storage backup renewables by CHP type and location
efficient use ability to accommodate accurate reliably a large share of demand forecasting variable renewable power response of wind + PV Denmark’s transition to distributed electricity, 1980–2012
1980 2012
Source: Risø Denmark’s transition to distributed electricity, 1980–2012
1980 Central thermal 2012 Other generation Wind turbines
Source: Risø Similar Risks Different Similar CostsRisks Different Similar Different Costs Risks Cheaper renewables and batteries change the game In Westchester, NY, 60% of residential consumption in the next decade could come more cheaply from PV
Source: RMI analysis “The Economics of Load Defection,” 2015 Load control + PVs = grid optional
Source: RMI analysis “The Economics of Load Flexibility,” 2015 Load control + PVs = grid optional
12" AC Dryer EV-charging Solar PV 10" DHW Other 8"
6" kW#
4"
2"
0" Uncontrolled: ~50% of solar PV production is sent to the grid, but if the utility doesn’t pay for that energy, how could customers respond?
Source: RMI analysis “The Economics of Load Flexibility,” 2015 Load control + PVs = grid optional
12" !12.00!!12" AC Dryer EV-charging Solar PV AC Dryer EV-charging Solar PV 10" !10.00!!10" DHW Other DHW Other 8" !8.00!!8"
6"
6" !6.00!!kW# kW# kW#
4" !4.00!!4"
2" !2.00!!2"
0" !"!!!!0"
Unc!Load! Smart!AC! Smart!DHW! Smart!Dryer! Uncontrolled: ~50% of solar PV Controlled: flexible load enables production is sent to the grid, customers to consume >80% of but if the utility doesn’t pay for solar PV production onsite. The that energy, how could utility loses nearly all its windfall customers respond? and most of its ordinary revenue.
Source: RMI analysis “The Economics of Load Flexibility,” 2015
$5T +158% 0 in savings bigger economy oil, coal, nuclear
Solutions to: Solutions to: Solutions to: Solutions to: Solutions to: Actuals (USEIA)are notweather-adjusted; 2015datathrough Nov. ReinventingFire progression basedonconstantexponentialgrowth rate.
TWh/y trillion 2009 $ 200 400 600 14 15 16 17 0 2010–2015 2010 2010 Renewable ElectricityGeneration 2011 2011 Actual RF Actual RF 2012 2012 p GDP U.S.progress toward ReinventingFire’s 2050goals 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015
kg of Standard Coal kWh / 2009 $ GDP Equivalent / GDP 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.27 0.19 0.21 0.23 0.25 2010 2010 2011 2011 Actual RF Actual RF EnergyIntensity Primary Electric Intensity 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015
2010 NPV RMB % % 2010 NPV 21T +587 38 in savings bigger GDP less carbon ٺ经济节约 经济规模 碳排放 Couldn’t India aspire to do that well or better?
> ?
Price > Cost Value > Price > Cost Easter Parades on Fifth Avenue, New York, 13 years apart
1900: where’s the first car? Easter Parades on Fifth Avenue, New York, 13 years apart
1900: where’s the first car? Easter Parades on Fifth Avenue, New York, 13 years apart
1900: where’s the first car? 1913: where’s the last horse?
Images: L, National Archive, www.archives.gov/research/american-cities/images/american-cities-101.jpg; R, shorpy.com/node/204. Inspiration: Tona Seba’s keynote lecture at AltCar, Santa Monica CA, 28 Oct 2014, http://tonyseba.com/keynote-at-altcar-expo-100-electric-transportation-100-solar-by-2030/ Easter Parades on Fifth Avenue, New York, 13 years apart
1900: where’s the first car? 1913: where’s the last horse?
?
Images: L, National Archive, www.archives.gov/research/american-cities/images/american-cities-101.jpg; R, shorpy.com/node/204. Inspiration: Tona Seba’s keynote lecture at AltCar, Santa Monica CA, 28 Oct 2014, http://tonyseba.com/keynote-at-altcar-expo-100-electric-transportation-100-solar-by-2030/ A new and old utility 8 SolarCity 7 6 5 $6b market cap 4 3 2 Exelon 1 $34b market cap 0 12 December 2012 (SolarCity’s IPO) A new and old utility 8 SolarCity 7 6 5 $6b market cap 4 3 (13 December 2012 = 1)
Indexed stock market price 2 Exelon 1 $34b market cap 0 May 2015 12 December 2012 (SolarCity’s IPO) A new and old automaker 14 50 thousand 12 cars per year $30b market 10 cap Tesla 8 6
4 8 million General Motors cars per year 2 $57b market cap 0 A new and old automaker 14 50 thousand 12 cars per year $30b market 10 cap Tesla 8 6 (30 June 2010 = 1) 4 8 million Indexed stock market price General Motors cars per year 2 $57b market cap 0 29 June 2010 May 2015 (Tesla’s IPO) From the Age of Carbon to the Age of Silicon From the Age of Carbon to the Age of Silicon Renewables replacing $38b/y kerosene market Renewables replacing $38b/y kerosene market O Y M UN ARBON K T C C A I O N
R
I W N E A M STIT U T R R O O
reinventingfire.com | www.rmi.org, [email protected] | Twitter @AmoryLovins
www.ted.com/talks/amory_lovins_a_50_year_plan_for_energy.html
www.rmi.org/Knowledge-Center/Library/2012-01_FarewellToFossilFuels