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The Reliability of Japan's Statistics Is Fluctuating ` ` Edition 06/2018 The reliability of Japan's statistics is fluctuating According to the January monthly economic report released on January 29, 2019, the government reported that the economic recovery that began in December 2012 might be the longest after the Second World War. Exports improved due to the depreciation of the yen, leading the Japanese economy. However, the current economic recovery depends on the yen’s depreciation and fiscal expenditure, and the growth rate increase is minimal. The world economy situation is uncertain due to the trade friction between the United States and China, and raising productivity in the manufacturing industry in Japan again appears as a problem. Recently, inappropriate processing has been discovered one after another due to fundamental statistics of the government, such as monthly labor statistics by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, spreading to other ministries and agencies. The reliability of Japan's statistics is fluctuating, and the government formally decided to review 233 other statistics, but the opposition will be taking up this problem during the ordinary session and the government will be hard-pressed to clear this problem. Last year it seems the performance of Japanese companies has recovered. According to the Ministry of Finance's corporation statistics, the ordinary profit of all industries excluding finance and insurance in FY 2017 was 83.6 trillion yen, the highest ever. The economic recovery in the face of a decrease in workers has resulted in a shortage of workers and companies began to strengthen employment while increasing capital investment for labor saving and automation. The shortage of workers is very serious and it is possible for nearly everyone who is willing to work in a depriving labor field to obtain a job. The wage increase to secure human resources also expanded. Meanwhile, the government changed its policy so far and moved to expand the acceptance of foreign workers. The amendment to Immigration Control Act was enacted in the extraordinary Diet session last year, and it will come into effect from April. The government expects to accept about 345,000 people within the next 5 years. This year will be “the election year” in which the unified local election and the upper house election will be held. In addition, it has been decided to raise consumption tax to 10% from the current 8% in October. Private consumption, which is accounting for nearly 60% of the gross domestic product (GDP), only recorded a 2% growth rate over the past six years. One reason why consumption is not even despite continued economic recovery is the decrease in disposable income through an increase in social insurance premiums and taxes. While the global economic outlook due to the US-China trade friction etc. is unclear, domestic risks are also present, and it is necessary to keep an eye on the trend of the domestic economy in the future as well. JAPAN Contact: Heiwa Hasegawa, Representative Telephone: +81 3 5276 6632 Fax: +81 3 5276 2455 E-mail: [email protected] VDMA-Newsletter “Japan”, Edition 06/2018 Contact: Oliver Wack, Telephone: +49 69 6603-1444 Japan Economic and Industrial Scenario, 06/2018 VDMA JAPAN Liaison Office 2 Current Economic Scenario Japan’s economy slows for the first time this year GDP growth slowed during the July - September by 1.2% compared to the same quarter of the previous year, the first backward step this year for Japan’s economy. However, nature and climate were the major factors in the slowdown. In its initial assessment, the government-owned Development Bank of Japan (DBJ) calculated the combined damage at around 1 trillion yen from torrential rain over the whole Japanese archipelago in July, typhoons and an earthquake in Hokkaido in September, restricting economic growth in the year by 0.8%. With the indices reading lower in September, the cabinet downgraded its economic assessment for the first time in two years, from ‘improving’ to ‘neutral’. The impact of the natural disasters is clearly seen in lower production in mining and manufacturing and B2B sales. During the recovery from the historic recession, the judgement based on the indices moved from ‘phase shift’ to ‘worsening’. Although the outlook is downgraded, it is believed that the indices will rebound if the only negative factor is the temporary influence of the natural phenomena. It is possible to escape the conclusion that this is a general deterioration. There are high expectations that the longest period of economic growth since the war will resume its course in January. Real GDP growth rate, 15,0 Contributions to Quarter-to-Quarter Percent Change in GDP 10,0 5,0 0,0 -5,0 Private Consumption Private Residential Investment -10,0 Private Non-Resi. Investment Change in Private Inventories Government spending Export -15,0 Import GDP -20,0 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Cabinet Office, Government of Japan However, natural factors are not the only background to the indices’ deterioration. It is undeniable that the pace of recovery is also slowing compared to the same period last year. Exports have been flat this year due to slower growth internationally. Asia in particular has lost momentum, where vigorous demand for semi-conductors and electronic parts used in robotics had been a great source of strength in the past 1 - 2 years, producing substantial growth in the second half of 2016. Real GDP has increased by about 30 trillion yen from the beginning of 2013 to the present, and the value of goods exported by nearly 15 trillion yen in the same period. One also observes the strong boost that inbound tourism has brought to consumer spending during the same period, increasing from 1 trillion yen in early 2013 to nearly 4 trillion yen now. What is eye-catching in this three-fold growth is not so much its growing influence of on the value of exports, but the sharp fluctuation in goods exported compared to inbound consumption. The preliminary estimate of real capital investment during the quarter July - September (GDP base) was revised down 0.9% from the same quarter of the previous year. Although this is a modest decline, the second bulletin was revised sharply downward 2.8%. The DBJ announced its estimate of 6.4% increase in nominal capital investment over the previous year, based on the Bank of Japan Tankan figures, but this is also expected to be revised downwards. VDMA-Newsletter “Japan”, Edition 06/2018 Contact: Oliver Wack, Telephone: +49 69 6603-1444 Japan Economic and Industrial Scenario, 06/2018 VDMA JAPAN Liaison Office 3 The Democrats gained control of the House of Representatives as expected in the US mid-term elections on November 6. Although Republicans retain the majority in the Senate, resistance in Congress will make it hard to pass measures on tax cuts, the wall, and social welfare. It is also possible that Trump’s position on trade policy will harden. The impact this is having on exporting countries such as China is becoming steadily more real. There is uncertainty ahead, and it is necessary to keep a close watch. Trend of private investment Bil. Yen Change rate 90.000,0 4,0 88.000,0 3,0 86.000,0 2,0 84.000,0 1,0 82.000,0 0,0 80.000,0 -1,0 78.000,0 -2,0 76.000,0 74.000,0 -3,0 72.000,0 -4,0 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Amount (adjusted series) Q to Q, percent change Source: Cabinet Office, Government of Japan Investment in plant and machinery (excluding shipping , electric power and private sector demand) based on indications of advance orders was 18.3% lower in September than the previous month, but up by 0,9% over the quarter July - September. This is the fifth consecutive quarterly increase. The sector is expected to achieve 3.6% growth in the quarter from October to December. This is a downwards revision but is the effect is not yet known. The volume of floor area for construction in the non- residential sector, a leading indicator of construction activity, showed a slight increase. Machine order, private demand, month-to-month basis Mio. Yen Change rate 1.200.000 15,0 Amount Private demand 1.000.000 10,0 5,0 800.000 - 600.000 -5,0 400.000 -10,0 200.000 -15,0 - -20,0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2017 2018 Source: Cabinet Office, Government of Japan VDMA-Newsletter “Japan”, Edition 06/2018 Contact: Oliver Wack, Telephone: +49 69 6603-1444 Japan Economic and Industrial Scenario, 06/2018 VDMA JAPAN Liaison Office 4 Machine order, private demand, Quarter-to-Quarter basis Mio. Yen Change rate 3.400.000 Amount Private demand 4 3.300.000 3 3.200.000 2 3.100.000 1 3.000.000 0 2.900.000 -1 2.800.000 -2 2.700.000 -3 2.600.000 -4 IV Ｉ ＩＩ ＩＩＩ IV Ｉ ＩＩ ＩＩＩ 2016 2017 2018 Source: Cabinet Office, Government of Japan By sector, the growth in the automotive and general industry segments since the second half of last year eased in the quarter July to September. In non-industrial sectors, there was a high volume of orders from postal services and railway operators for rail carriages. The hospitality and property sector propped up demand for construction equipment even though it has declined this year.
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