Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste: Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project (Financed by the Technical Assistance Special Fund)

Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report

Project Number: 52320-001 November 2019

Prepared by Nippon Koei Co., Ltd (NK), Japan Dili, Timor-Leste

For Ministry of Transport and Communications Director General of Transport and Communications

This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design.

AIRPORT ADMINISTRATION AND AIR NAVIGATION OF TIMOR-LESTE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF TIMOR-LESTE

TA-9702 TIM: Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project (52329-001)

FINAL OPTIONS REPORT

November 2019

Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

TA-9702 TIM: Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project (52329-001) in the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ...... 1-1 1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY ...... 1-1 1.2 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY ...... 1-1 1.3 STUDY AREA ...... 1-1 1.4 WORKFLOW OF THE STUDY ...... 1-2 CHAPTER 2 PRESENT SITUATION ...... 2-1 2.1 BASIC SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATOR ...... 2-1 2.1.1 Population ...... 2-1 2.1.2 Gross Domestic Product ...... 2-1 2.1.3 Export and Import ...... 2-2 2.2 AVIATION SECTOR SITUATION ...... 2-3 2.2.1 Aviation Traffic Situation ...... 2-3 2.3 OPTIONS OF PREVIOUS STUDIES AND ONGOING STUDIES ...... 2-9 2.3.1 IFC Study ...... 2-9 2.3.2 JICA Airport Study ...... 2-11 2.3.3 Timor- Leste Government Study ...... 2-12 2.4 AIR TRAFFIC FORECAST OF PREVIOUS STUDIES ...... 2-14 2.5 REVISED TRAFFIC FORECAST ...... 2-15 2.6 AIRPORT LAYOUT PLAN ...... 2-18 2.7 TECHNICAL ASPECT ...... 2-19 2.7.1 Topographic ...... 2-19 2.7.2 Geotechnical ...... 2-19 2.7.3 Runway ...... 2-23 2.8 ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECT ...... 2-24 2.8.1 Survey Items and Method ...... 2-24 2.8.2 Environmental Baseline ...... 2-25 2.9 SOCIAL SAFEGUARD ASPECT ...... 2-34 2.9.1 Current Social Condition of the Project Site ...... 2-34 2.9.2 Social Safeguard Issues ...... 2-36 2.10 RISK REGISTER ASPECT ...... 2-37 CHAPTER 3 OPTIONS ANALYSIS ...... 3-1 3.1 GENERAL ...... 3-1 3.2 OPTION CONSIDERED ...... 3-1 3.2.1 Airport Layout Plan ...... 3-1 3.3 TECHNICAL COMPLEXITY (COST ESTIMATES, CONSTRUCTION PLAN) ...... 3-8 3.3.1 West Side Extension ...... 3-8 3.3.2 East Side Extension ...... 3-13 3.3.3 Technical Feature of Options ...... 3-25 3.3.4 Comparison of Options for Technical Aspect ...... 3-30 3.3.5 Option 2,100 ...... 3-30 3.4 FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC VIABILITY ...... 3-32 3.4.1 General ...... 3-32 3.4.2 Financial Viability ...... 3-32 3.4.3 Economic Viability ...... 3-41 3.5 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ...... 3-49 3.5.1 Methodology...... 3-49 3.5.2 Preliminary Scoping ...... 3-49

Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

3.5.3 Identification of Criteria for Comparison ...... 3-51 3.5.4 Preliminary Environmental Impact Assessment ...... 3-52 3.5.5 Further Inputs for Evaluation of Project Options ...... 3-57 3.5.6 Evaluation of Project Options in Terms of Environmental Safeguard ...... 3-61 3.6 PRELIMINARY SOCIAL SAFEGUARD ASSESSMENT ...... 3-64 3.6.1 General ...... 3-64 3.6.2 Land Acquisition and Involuntary Resettlement ...... 3-64 3.6.3 Local Economy ...... 3-69 3.6.4 Comparison of Options for Social Safeguards ...... 3-71 3.7 RECOMMENDATION ...... 3-72 3.8 UPDATED RISK REGISTER ...... 3-73 3.9 PREFERRED OPTION ...... 3-76

Appendix

Appendix-1 Official Letter 1-1: 3,000 m Runway length 1-2: ANATL airport development plan

Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

FIGURE LIST Figure 1.1 Location Map ...... 1-2 Figure 1.2 Workflow of the Study ...... 1-2 Figure 2.1 Population ...... 2-1 Figure 2.2 Trend of Constant GDP Growth ...... 2-2 Figure 2.3 GDP including and excluding Oil...... 2-2 Figure 2.4 Imports and Exports ...... 2-3 Figure 2.5 Location Map for Major Airports ...... 2-4 Figure 2.6 Transition of Aircraft Movement (left), Passenger Volume (center) and Cargo Tonnage (right) ...... 2-4 Figure 2.7 Transition of International Regular Flight by Each Route ...... 2-5 Figure 2.8 Composition of International Flight by Airlines (2017) ...... 2-6 Figure 2.9 Composition of International Flights by Type of Aircraft (2017) ...... 2-7 Figure 2.10 Domestic Regular Flight Status (April 2018) ...... 2-9 Figure 2.11 Option 1 ...... 2-10 Figure 2.12 Option 2 ...... 2-11 Figure 2.13 JICA Airport Study Perspective ...... 2-12 Figure 2.14 Stage-1 2,100 m Extension ...... 2-13 Figure 2.15 Stage-2: 2,500 m Extension ...... 2-13 Figure 2.16 Alternative Option of Stage-2 Extension ...... 2-14 Figure 2.17 Traffic Demand Forecast (Passengers) ...... 2-15 Figure 2.18 Passenger Movement (2010 to 2055) ...... 2-16 Figure 2.19 Layout Plan (2,500 m long Runway) ...... 2-18 Figure 2.20 Topographic Map ...... 2-19 Figure 2.21 Location of Boring Survey ...... 2-19 Figure 2.22 Borehole Log of BH-1 ...... 2-20 Figure 2.23 Borehole Log of BH-2 ...... 2-21 Figure 2.24 Summary of N Value of Geotechnical Survey by JICA ...... 2-22 Figure 2.25 Location of Geotechnical Survey by JICA ...... 2-22 Figure 2.26 Airport Facility ...... 2-23 Figure 2.27 Airport Layout Satellite Image ...... 2-23 Figure 2.28 Pictures in the Surroundings of Dili Airport ...... 2-25 Figure 2.29 Coral and Seagrass Map in Tasi Tolu ...... 2-30 Figure 2.30 Designated Protected Area in Timor Leste ...... 2-31 Figure 2.31 Tasi Tolu Important Bird Area ...... 2-31 Figure 2.32 Noise Level in the Surroundings of Dili Airport ...... 2-33 Figure 2.33 Present Runway and Surrounding Sucos ...... 2-35 Figure 3.1 Calculation of Take-off Weight (B777-300ER)...... 3-3 Figure 3.2 Calculation of Required Runway Length for Take-off (B777-300ER) ...... 3-4 Figure 3.3 Option A-1/West Side, 2,500 m Expansion ...... 3-5 Figure 3.4 Option A-2/East Side, 2,500 m Expansion ...... 3-6 Figure 3.5 Option A-3/Both Sides, 2,500 m Expansion ...... 3-6 Figure 3.6 Option 2100/ Both Sides, 2,100 m Expansion ...... 3-7 Figure 3.7 Planning Area and Bathymetric Contour of West Side Extension ...... 3-8 Figure 3.8 Cross Section of Revetment (Sea Wall : Shallow Sea Area) ...... 3-9 Figure 3.9 Cross Section of Revetment (Sea Wall : Deep Sea Area) ...... 3-9 Figure 3.10 Cross Section of Reclamation Area ...... 3-9 Figure 3.11 D-Runway in Tokyo International Airport ...... 3-10 Figure 3.12 Jacket Installation of Port Facility in Myanmar ...... 3-10 Figure 3.13 Plan of Jacket Structure (One Unit) ...... 3-11 Figure 3.14 Cross Section of Jetty Structure (Jacket Type : Shallow Sea Area) ...... 3-11 Figure 3.15 Cross Section of Jetty Structure (Jacket Type : Deep Sea Area) ...... 3-11 Figure 3.16 Design of River Widening Near Airport ...... 3-15

Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

Figure 3.17 Design of River Widening for Bridge Structure Study ...... 3-16 Figure 3.18 Longitudinal Section of Connection Taxiway ...... 3-16 Figure 3.19 Cross Section of Connection Taxiway ...... 3-17 Figure 3.20 Proposed Span Length ...... 3-17 Figure 3.21 Arrangement of Piles for a Pier ...... 3-18 Figure 3.22 Proposed Superstructure ...... 3-18 Figure 3.23 Proposed Bridge Structure ...... 3-19 Figure 3.24 Planned Runway Profile (Option A-2, Solution 1) ...... 3-19 Figure 3.25 Planned Cross-Sectional Elevation for Extended Runway Part (Option A-2, Solution 1) ...... 3-20 Figure 3.26 Planned Cross Sectional of Diversion River ...... 3-22 Figure 3.27 Diversion River Route Plan (Option A-2) ...... 3-22 Figure 3.28 Planned Longitudinal Profile of Diversion River (Option A-2, Solution 2) ...... 3-22 Figure 3.29 Planned Cross Section for Diversion River (Option A-2, Solution 2)...... 3-23 Figure 3.30 Planned Longitudinal Profile of Runway (Option A-2, Solution 2) ...... 3-23 Figure 3.31 Planned Cross Section for Runway Extension (Option A-2, Solution 2) ...... 3-24 Figure 3.32 Diversion River Route Plan (Option A-3) ...... 3-27 Figure 3.33 Planned Longitudinal Profile of Diversion River (Option A-3) ...... 3-28 Figure 3.34 Planned Cross Section for Diversion River (Option A-3) ...... 3-28 Figure 3.35 Layout of Option 2,100 ...... 3-31 Figure 3.36 Comparison of Development Area Among Each Project Options ...... 3-53 Figure 3.37 Result of Noise Prediction in the Previous Study ...... 3-55 Figure 3.38 Biodiversity Decision Framework for Project Siting ...... 3-59 Figure 3.39 Area Guide Diagram ...... 3-68 Figure 3.40 Cultural, Religious and Social Infrastructures ...... 3-71 Figure 3.41 IFC Preferred Airport Layout Plan ...... 3-76 Figure 3.41 Preferred Airport Layout Plan ...... 3-76

Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

TABLE LIST Table 2-1 Basic Socioeconomic Indicators ...... 2-1 Table 2-2 Imports and Exports ...... 2-3 Table 2-3 Aviation Feature of Dili Airport ...... 2-4 Table 2-4 Transition of Cargo Handling (2013 to 2017) ...... 2-5 Table 2-5 Flight Status by Routes (times) ...... 2-5 Table 2-6 International Flight by Airlines (Times) ...... 2-6 Table 2-7 Types of Aircraft Operating (Times) ...... 2-7 Table 2-8 Timetable of Sriwijaya Airlines in 2019 ...... 2-7 Table 2-9 Timetable of Airnorth Airlines in 2019 ...... 2-7 Table 2-10 Timetable of Citilink Airlines in 2019 ...... 2-8 Table 2-11 Flight Status of Dili Airport Except Regular International Flight for two weeks in April of 2018 ...... 2-8 Table 2-12 JICA Airport Study Component ...... 2-11 Table 2-13 Passenger Movement (2010 to 2055) ...... 2-17 Table 2-14 Items and Means of Survey ...... 2-24 Table 2-15 List of Endangered Terrestrial Plant and Animal Species in Timor-Leste ...... 2-26 Table 2-16 List of Endangered Marine Species in Timor-Leste ...... 2-26 Table 2-17 List of Terrestrial and Water Bird Species of Tasi Tolu Lake Area ...... 2-27 Table 2-18 List of Sensitive Receptors in the Surroundings of Dili Airport ...... 2-33 Table 2-19 Population 2015 ...... 2-35 Table 3-1 Current Operation Aircraft (Code-C)...... 3-1 Table 3-2 Expected Future Operation Aircraft (Code-E) ...... 3-2 Table 3-3 Major Destination in Each Flight Range ...... 3-2 Table 3-4 Estimation of Payload Weight in Full Pax/No Cargo ...... 3-2 Table 3-5 Basic Conditions in Dili Airport ...... 3-2 Table 3-6 Summary of Required Runway Length ...... 3-4 Table 3-7 Summary of Required Weight Limitation ...... 3-5 Table 3-8 Construction Cost of Reclamation ...... 3-12 Table 3-9 Construction Cost of Jetty Structure ...... 3-12 Table 3-10 Construction Schedule of Reclamation ...... 3-12 Table 3-11 Construction Schedule of Jetty Structure ...... 3-13 Table 3-12 Discharge Volume of Comoro River ...... 3-13 Table 3-13 Discharge Volume of Comoro River ...... 3-14 Table 3-14 Longitudinal Riverbed Slope ...... 3-14 Table 3-15 Design River Widening ...... 3-15 Table 3-16 Design River Characteristics for Bridge Structure Study ...... 3-15 Table 3-17 Calculation of Impediment Ratio of River ...... 3-18 Table 3-18 Outline Cost Estimation of Bridge Structure ...... 3-20 Table 3-19 Cost for Option A-2 by Solution 1 ...... 3-21 Table 3-20 Cost for Option A-2 by Solution 2 ...... 3-24 Table 3-21 Construction Cost (Option A-1) ...... 3-25 Table 3-22 Construction Schedule (Option A-1) ...... 3-25 Table 3-23 Construction Cost (Option A-2) ...... 3-26 Table 3-24 Construction Schedule (Option A-2) ...... 3-26 Table 3-25 Construction Cost (Option A-3) ...... 3-29 Table 3-26 Construction Schedule (Option A-3) ...... 3-29 Table 3-27 Comparison of Options (Technical Aspect) ...... 3-30 Table 3-28 Comparison of Options (Technical Aspect) ...... 3-30 Table 3-29 Construction Cost (Option 2,100) ...... 3-31 Table 3-30 Construction Schedule (Option 2,100) ...... 3-32 Table 3-31 Estimated Incremental Income from Landing Fee Per Port of Origin ...... 3-33 Table 3-32 Passenger Terminal Revenue ...... 3-34

Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

Table 3-33 Estimated Incremental Income from Check-in Counter ...... 3-34 Table 3-34 Construction Cost ...... 3-35 Table 3-35 Summary of FIRR and Sensitivity Analysis ...... 3-36 Table 3-36 FIRR Calculation Sheet ...... 3-37 Table 3-37 Estimate of Limited Cargo in the Without Project Case ...... 3-43 Table 3-38 Summary of EIRR and Sensitivity Analysis ...... 3-44 Table 3-39 EIRR Calculation Sheet ...... 3-45 Table 3-40 Preliminary Scoping for the East or West Side Affected Areas ...... 3-49 Table 3-41 Identification of Sub-criteria ...... 3-51 Table 3-42 Approximately Calculated Developed Area for Each Option to Anticipate the Scale of Disturbance to Biodiversity ...... 3-53 Table 3-43 Anticipated Scale of Impact of Noise and Vibration ...... 3-56 Table 3-44 Anticipated Impact on River Flow and Ocean Current ...... 3-56 Table 3-45 Preliminary Analysis for “No-go” Circumstances ...... 3-59 Table 3-46 Key Comments on Environmental Safeguard Provided by Stakeholders ...... 3-61 Table 3-47 Probability of Critical Habitat Species among Four Project Options ...... 3-62 Table 3-48 Comparison of Options (Environment Aspect) ...... 3-63 Table 3-49 Comparison of Options (Environment Aspect) ...... 3-64 Table 3-50 Compensation for Buildings/Houses to be Affected by Projects ...... 3-65 Table 3-51 Approximate Number of Affected Structures/Houses and Affected Population ... 3-67 Table 3-52 Land Area in the Supposed Affected Area ...... 3-68 Table 3-53 Land in Dispute in the Widening and Extension Areas ...... 3-68 Table 3-54 Impact on Local Economy ...... 3-69 Table 3-55 Impact on Solidarity of Community ...... 3-70 Table 3-56 Impact on Cultural, Religious, and Social Infrastructures ...... 3-71 Table 3-57 Comparison of Options (Social Safeguard Aspect) ...... 3-71 Table 3-58 Summary Comparison of Options (Social Safeguard Aspect)...... 3-72 Table 3-59 Comparison of Options ...... 3-73 Table 3-60 Upgrading Risk Registration ...... 3-73

Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

ABBREVIATIONS ADB : Asian Development Bank ADN : Agencia de Desenvolvimento Nacional AHP : Analytic Hierarchy Process AIP : Aeronautical Information Publication ANATL : Empresa Pública Administração de Aeroporto e Navegação Aerea de Timor-Leste. ANPM : Autoridade Nacional do Petróleo e Minerais DPMU : Development Partnership Management Unit EIA : Environmental Impact Assessment EIRR : Economic Internal Rate of Return FAA : Federal Aviation Administration FIRR : Financial Internal Rate of Return GoTL : Government of Timor-Leste HWL : High Water Level IBA : Important Bird Area ICAO : International Civil Aviation Organization IFC : International Financial Corporation. INM : Integrated Noise Model IUCN : International Union for Conservation of Nature JICA : Japan International Cooperation Agency LPPPU : Loan and Public Private Partnership Unit MCA : Multicriteria Analysis MOTC : Ministry of Transport & Communications MOF : Ministry of Finance MPS : Major Project Secretariat MPWTC : Ministry of Public Works, Transport and Communications MSP : Maximum Structural Payload MTOW : Maximum Take-off Weight MZFW : Maximum Zero Fuel Weight NK : Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. NDA : National Development Agency NPC : National Procurement Commission OEW : Operating Empty Weight PASER : Airfield Pavement Surface Evaluation and Rating Manuals RAP : Resettlement Action Plan RDTL : República Democártica de Timor-Leste RESA : Runway End Safety Area PKOM : Project Kick of Meeting PPP : Public Private Partnership RESA : Runway End Safety Area RFP : Request for Proposal SPS : Safeguard Policy Statement SHM : Stakeholder Workshop WL : Water Level

Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

Chapter 1 Introduction

Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the Study The expansion and improvement of Presidente Nicolau Lobato International Airport (hereinafter referred to as ‘Dili Airport’) was stated in the Timor-Leste Strategic Development Plan 2011-2013, with the goal of lengthening the runway to accept large-size aircraft such as A330 ICAO Code E. Up to now, there are studies on related development projects by International Finance Corporation (IFC), Asian Development Bank (ADB), and Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).

IFC carried out the study for Public-Private Partnership (PPP) for the Presidente Nicolau Lobato Inter- national Airport Project in 2013 to promote the PPP project of Dili Airport development to private in- vestors. The IFC’s study proposed several options for the development of the runway, including extension and widening in phased development.

ADB carried out the study “Timor-Leste Transport Sector Master Plan” in 2015. This study, in the aviation subsector, on the extension of the Runway End Safety Area (RESA) in Dili Airport without construction of seawall was suggested as a Priority Transport Project.

In 2016, JICA carried out “The Project for Study on Dili Urban Master Plan” (hereinafter referred to as ‘JICA Dili Urban M/P Project’). This study proposed to extend the runway length of Dili Airport to 2,100 m in a short-term project and to 2,500 m in a long-term project based on the abovementioned IFC’s development option.

In 2018, JICA commenced the “Preparatory Survey on the Terminal Area Improvement” (hereinafter referred to as ‘JICA Airport Study’). It includes the construction of new passenger terminal building, cargo terminal building, apron expansion, control tower, and other facilities in the airport. However, runway improvement is not included. The survey was completed in March 2019.

1.2 Objective of the Study The objective of the “Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project” (hereinafter referred to as ‘the Services’) in this Technical Assistance is to undertake a pre-feasibility assessment on the available options for the extension of the current runway, with the goal of presenting a consolidated report to the Government of Timor-Leste (GoTL) for approval. Therefore, in the Services, the following are to be done: (i) Review the prior IFC and JICA studies undertaken with GoTL; (ii) Further develop the existing available analysis on the various proposed runway extension options, and if necessary, develop new options. Analysis shall also include treatment options for taxiways, aprons, and physical safety and security installations directly linked to the runway; (iii) Conduct pre-feasibility study level safeguards assessments of the various options clearly identifying the most preferred and least preferred options from the environmental safeguard and involuntary resettlement safeguard perspectives; (iv) Conduct stakeholder workshop and analysis as inputs to items (ii) and (iii) and build consensus around the emerging preferred option; and (v) Support GoTL in the next step of implementing the runway expansion project. The Study Team will also provide necessary support and inputs to ADB during consultations with the GoTL. 1.3 Study Area The study area is shown in Figure 1.1.

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Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

Source: The Study Team Figure 1.1 Location Map 1.4 Workflow of the Study The workflow of the study is shown in Figure 1.2 Months No. Activity July August September October November 1 2 3 4 5 6 Main Activity

1 Review of previous and ongoing studies

2 Surveys

3 Option Analysis

4 Stakeholder Workshops ☆ 5 Environmental and Social Safeguards

6 Government’s endorsement of preferred option Project Outputs 1 Inception Report ☆ 2 Surveys

3 Draft Options Report ☆ 4 Final Options Report ☆ 5 Support to ADB in Submitting Preferred Option to GoTL

Source: The Study Team Figure 1.2 Workflow of the Study

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Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

Chapter 2 Present Situation

Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

CHAPTER 2 PRESENT SITUATION

2.1 Basic Socioeconomic Indicator Basic socioeconomic indicators of Timor-Leste are shown in Table 2-1 below. Both current account balance and government finance are in the deficit.

Table 2-1 Basic Socioeconomic Indicators Total Population million 2018 1.26 Average Annual Population Growth Rate % 2013 - 2018 2.4 Proportion of Population living below the National Poverty Line % 2017 41.8 CORE 2017 -5.4 Annual Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) % INDICATORS 2018 -0.5 Per Capita Gross National Income (GNI) $ 2017 1790 Inflation Rate % 2018 2.1 Current Account Balance % of GDP 2018 -3.0 Agriculture 3.0 NATIONAL Annual Real Growth Rates on Value Added % 2018 Industry 7.6 ACCOUNTS Services 5.9 EXTERNAL $ million 104 Total Outstanding 2017 DEBT % of GNI 4.5 Revenue 75.0 GOVERNMENT % OF GDP 2018 Expenditure 79.9 FINANCE Final Balance -4.8 Source: Basic Statistics 2019 (Asian Development Bank, April 2019) 2.1.1 Population The transition of population between 2000 and 2017 of Timor-Leste is summarized in the table below. Between 2000 and 2017, the population steadily increases by 2.4% each year and has reached 1,300,000.

Population (Thousand) Number Change thousand 2000 871.6 1400 2001 892.5 2.4% 2002 923.8 3.5% 1200 2003 960.9 4.0% 2004 996.7 3.7% 1000 2005 1026.5 3.0% 2006 1048.6 2.2% 800 2007 1065.0 1.6% 2008 1078.1 1.2% 600 2009 1092.0 1.3% 2010 1109.6 1.6% 400 2011 1131.5 2.0% 2012 1156.8 2.2% 200 2013 1184.4 2.4% 2014 1212.8 2.4% 0 2015 1241.0 2.3% 2016 1268.7 2.2% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 1296.3 2.2%

Source: National Accounts - Analysis of Main Aggregates (United Nations, December 2018) Figure 2.1 Population 2.1.2 Gross Domestic Product The gross domestic product (GDP) of Timor-Leste between 2000 and 2018 is summarized in the table below. GDP steadily increases by an average of 4.9% and reached one thousand and one hundred forty- four million US$. The per capita GDP also increases by an average of 2.5% every year.

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Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

GDP (Million US$) GDP per Capita (US$) Current Price Constant Price Current Price Constant Price Million US$ Value Change Value Change Value Change Value Change 1800 2000 350.4 525.5 402.0 603.0 GDP (Current Price) 2001 429.6 22.6% 611.3 16.3% 481.3 19.7% 684.9 13.6% 1600 2002 422.9 -1.6% 570.5 -6.7% 457.8 -4.9% 617.5 -9.8% GDP (Constant Price) 2003 430.5 1.8% 557.9 -2.2% 448.1 -2.1% 580.6 -6.0% 1400 2004 442.9 2.9% 563.5 1.0% 444.3 -0.8% 565.3 -2.6% 2005 466.6 5.4% 600.0 6.5% 454.6 2.3% 584.5 3.4% 1200 2006 440.0 -5.7% 564.9 -5.9% 419.6 -7.7% 538.7 -7.8% 1000 2007 531.3 20.8% 629.5 11.4% 498.8 18.9% 591.1 9.7% 2008 659.6 24.1% 718.8 14.2% 611.8 22.7% 666.7 12.8% 800 2009 786.0 19.2% 812.2 13.0% 719.7 17.6% 743.8 11.6% 2010 894.4 13.8% 894.4 10.1% 806.1 12.0% 806.1 8.4% 600 2011 1053.5 17.8% 965.4 7.9% 931.0 15.5% 853.2 5.8% 2012 1189.9 12.9% 1013.8 5.0% 1027.8 10.4% 876.4 2.7% 400 2013 1410.0 18.5% 1040.5 2.6% 1190.5 15.8% 878.6 0.3% 2014 1450.6 2.9% 1083.2 4.1% 1196.1 0.5% 893.1 1.7% 200 2015 1606.5 10.7% 1126.5 4.0% 1294.5 8.2% 907.8 1.6%

2016 1783.0 11.0% 1186.2 5.3% 1405.4 8.6% 935.0 3.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 1686.2 -5.4% 1144.9 -3.5% 1300.7 -7.5% 883.2 -5.5%

Source: World Development Indicators (World Bank, March 2018), Timor-Leste Economic Report (World Bank, March 2018), Global Economic Prospects (World Bank, January 2018) and General Directorate of Statistics (Ministry of Finance of Timor-Leste, March 2019) Figure 2.2 Trend of Constant GDP Growth In Timor-Leste, the main industry is the development of oil and natural gas. Due to this, they have two statistics, one for GDP including oil and another for GDP excluding oil.

Looking at the statistics provided by the Ministry of Finance of Timor-Leste, while the GDP excluding oil is increasing steadily after 2006, the GDP including oil shows a large fluctuation. This is caused by the changes of oil prices and volume of extracted oil and gas. It is predicted that the gap in proportion between the GDP including oil and the GDP excluding oil will be reduced in the future. The GDP excluding oil is expected to have positive growth. One the other hand, the GDP including oil will experience negative growth.

In this project, the GDP excluding oil is adopted because it is difficult to predict the development trend of the oil and gas industry. It is unlikely that aviation demands are directly affected by the decrease in recent GDP including oil due to a large increase in aviation demands. The GDP excluding oil is adopted in the following aviation demand forecast study.

Million US$ 4500 GDP (Exluding Oil) 4000 GDP (Including Oil) 3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: General Directorate of Statistics (Ministry of Finance of Timor-Leste, March 2019) Figure 2.3 GDP including and excluding Oil. 2.1.3 Export and Import The trade balance of Timor-Leste is shown in the table and figure below and is indicated in the deficit. The main export product is coffee. Natural gas, which is exported by pipeline transportation to Australia, and petroleum are not appropriated for trade balance since the most of gas and oil fields are located on

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Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

the Australia and Timor Sea JPDA (JPDA: Joint Petroleum Development Area). Timor-Leste gets the revenue by gas and petroleum development, but these revenues are appropriated to the Petroleum Fund1. On the other hand, the main import products are fuel, like diesel or Jet A1 fuel, motor spirit, electrical machinery and apparatus, and grain. As for exports, re-exports show a large fluctuation, and exports of domestic products, mainly coffee, are relatively stable.

Table 2-2 Imports and Exports 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Merchandise Imports 550,080 487,969 508,192 554,553 519,437 Non Merchandise Imports 3,580 3,304 3,511 33,664 45,809 Total Imports 553,660 491,273 511,703 588,217 565,246 Domestic Exports 13,868 11,074 25,274 16,944 23,092 Re-Exports 25,197 27,366 136,526 7,914 23,209 Total Exports 39,065 38,440 161,800 24,857 46,302 Total Balance -514,595 -452,833 -349,903 -563,360 -518,944

Source: General Directorate of Statistics (Ministry of Finance of Timor-Leste, 2018)

Imports 1,000 US$ Exports 1,000 US$ Non Merchandise Imports 700,000 Domestic Exports 200,000 Merchandise Imports Re-Exports 160,000 Total Imports 600,000 Total Exports

120,000 500,000 80,000

400,000 40,000

300,000 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: General Directorate of Statistics (Ministry of Finance of Timor-Leste, 2018) Figure 2.4 Imports and Exports 2.2 Aviation Sector Situation 2.2.1 Aviation Traffic Situation Timor-Leste has limited accessibility due to the geographical steep features, and many inaccessible traffic sections, called missing links to the road network, and its ground transportation is very inefficient. In this situation, the aviation sector has an important role in providing means of transportation to connect cities, people, and goods.

In Timor-Leste, there are eight airports/air strips, and three of them are the major ones, namely the Presidente Nicolau Lobato International Airport in Dili, the Cakung Airport in Baucau, and the Suai Airport in Suai. Only Dili Airport and Baucau/ Cakung Airport are designed as international airports. All airports, including Dili Airport, are not permitted for night operations. However, night operations only for emergency purposes are permitted by the government.

1 the Petroleum Fund of Timor-Leste is a sovereign wealth fund into which the surplus wealth produced by Timor-Leste petroleum and gas income is deposited by GoTL. GoTL uses excess withdraw- als from the Petroleum Fund as revenue for minus expenditure.

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Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

CAKUNG DILI

SUAI

Legend Major Airport Major City

Source: The Study Team Figure 2.5 Location Map for Major Airports The aviation feature of Dili Airport from 2006 to 2018 is constantly increasing as shown in the table and figures below. However, cargo tonnage was decreased since Melpati Air stopped their operation in 2012. Table 2-3 Aviation Feature of Dili Airport Aircraft Movements (times) Passengers (thousand persons) Cargoes (tons) CY International Domestic Total International Domestic Total International Number Change Number Change Number Change Number Change Number Change Number Change Number Change 2006 2902 2902 62.7 62.7 276.4 2007 2538 -12.5% 2538 -12.5% 76.5 22.0% 76.5 22.0% 267.2 -3.3% 2008 2366 -6.8% 962 3328 31.1% 91.5 19.6% 6.3 97.8 27.8% 326.4 22.2% 2009 2356 -0.4% 1700 76.7% 4056 21.9% 113.3 23.8% 10.4 65.1% 123.7 26.5% 391.6 20.0% 2010 2566 8.9% 2414 42.0% 4980 22.8% 133.2 17.6% 16.7 60.6% 150 21.3% 415.7 6.2% 2011 2306 -10.1% 1912 -20.8% 4218 -15.3% 143.7 7.9% 7.8 -53.3% 151.5 1.0% 426 2.5% 2012 2834 22.9% 2460 28.7% 5294 25.5% 168.7 17.4% 10.1 29.5% 178.8 18.0% 471.5 10.7% 2013 2680 -5.4% 2702 9.8% 5382 1.7% 192 13.8% 12.9 27.7% 204.9 14.6% 239.6 -49.2% 2014 2896 8.1% 3302 22.2% 6198 15.2% 189.5 -1.3% 17.4 34.9% 206.8 0.9% 171 -28.6% 2015 2982 3.0% 3266 -1.1% 6248 0.8% 193 1.8% 19 9.2% 212 2.5% 246.6 44.2% 2016 3232 8.4% 2712 -17.0% 5944 -4.9% 212.7 10.2% 16.4 -13.7% 229.2 8.1% 284 15.2% 2017 2698 -16.5% 3674 35.5% 6372 7.2% 216.4 1.7% 30.3 84.8% 246.7 7.6% 326.1 14.8% 2018 2754 2.1% 5674 54.4% 8428 32.3% 241.7 11.7% 33.5 10.6% 275.2 11.6% 241.7 -25.9% Source: ANATL

times thousand 8000 300 tons 500 International Domestic International Domestic International 250 6000 400 200 300 4000 150 200 100 2000 50 100

0 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: ANATL Figure 2.6 Transition of Aircraft Movement (left), Passenger Volume (center) and Cargo Ton- nage (right) The number of aircraft movements shows a growing trend and has reached 8,428 times in 2018. In terms of the international and domestic flights, both are kept at approximately 3,000 times, although a little

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fluctuation is observed. The number of passengers is steadily growing with little fluctuation and has reached 275,000 in 2018, and the international passenger movements accounted for more than 90% of the total passengers. After the volume of cargo significantly decreased after the peak of 470 tons in 2012, it increased after 2014 and reached 326 tons in 2017. The significant drop in 2013 is considered to be caused by the cease of UN Integrated Mission in Timor-Leste (UNMIT). In the recent five years, the volume of cargo for unloading accounted for a larger volume over total handling volume of cargo.

Table 2-4 Transition of Cargo Handling (2013 to 2017) Load Unload Total tons ratio tons ratio tons ratio 2013 30.2 12.6% 209.1 87.4% 239.3 100.0% 2014 64.1 37.5% 106.9 62.5% 171.0 100.0% 2015 21.7 8.8% 224.8 91.2% 246.6 100.0% 2016 31.1 11.0% 252.9 89.0% 284.0 100.0% 2017 144.3 44.3% 181.8 55.7% 326.1 100.0% Source: ANATL The transition of the number of international flights in the past ten years is shown in the table below. Looking at the number by each route, the number of passengers on the Denpasar (DPS) route has been continually increasing after 2013. Meanwhile, Singapore (SIN) and Darwin (DRW) are steady or show slight decrease. In 2017, DPS recorded 2,583 times/year, SIN at 210 times/year, and DRW at 814 times/year.

Table 2-5 Flight Status by Routes (times) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CGK : Soekarno-Hatta 12 4 South-East DPS : Denpasar Bali 626 626 626 626 436 464 730 1,263 1,734 2,583 Asia SIN : Singapore 70 204 296 310 387 386 294 300 286 210 Sub Total 696 830 922 936 835 854 1,024 1,563 2,020 2,793 Australia/ New DRW : Darwin 962 821 682 834 857 904 952 966 856 814 Zealand Sub Total 962 821 682 834 857 904 952 966 856 814 Total 1,658 1,651 1,604 1,770 1,692 1,758 1,976 2,529 2,876 3,607 Source: OAG Schedule Analyzer

3,000 times DPS : Denpasar Bali 2,500 SIN : Singapore

2,000 DRW : Darwin

1,500

1,000

500

0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: OAG Schedule Analyzer Figure 2.7 Transition of International Regular Flight by Each Route

Airline companies operating in Dili Airport as of 2017 are shown in the table below.

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Singapore route used to be operated by Air Timor established by the travel agent in Timor-Leste, and the aircraft was leased by Silk Air by Wet Lease. However, after 2015, Air Timor has only dealt with reservation, and sale of tickets and operation is carried out by Silk Air. The Singapore route operation was stopped in April 2018. Practically, all flights in Dili Airport are operated by foreign-based airlines.

With regard to the number of aircraft movements by airline in 2017, NAM Air accounted for 40% (1,440 flights) of the total international flights, followed by Airnorth Regional 23% (814 flights) and Sriwijaya Air 20% (730 flights).

Table 2-6 International Flight by Airlines (Times) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Batavia Air 12 4 CGK Sub Total 12 4 Batavia Air 72 26 Garuda Indonesia 474 NAM Air 370 1,440 DPS Merpati Nusantara Airlines 626 626 626 626 364 Citilink Indonesia 59 632 413 Sriwijaya Air 438 730 730 732 730 Sub Total 626 626 626 626 436 464 730 1,263 1,734 2,583 SilkAir 70 204 208 310 306 272 294 300 286 210 SIN Air Timor 88 81 114 Sub Total 70 204 296 310 387 386 294 300 286 210 Sky Air World 26 DRW Airnorth Regional 962 795 682 834 857 904 952 966 856 814 Sub Total 962 821 682 834 857 904 952 966 856 814 Total 1,658 1,651 1,604 1,770 1,692 1,758 1,976 2,529 2,876 3,607 Source: OAG Schedule Analyzer

(DRW) Airnorth Regional 23% (DPS) NAM Air (SIN) SilkAir 40% 6%

(DPS) Sriwijaya Air 20%

(DPS) Citilink Indonesia 11%

Source: OAG Schedule Analyzer Figure 2.8 Composition of International Flight by Airlines (2017) The types of aircraft for international regular flights as of 2017 are shown in the table below. Denpasar and Singapore routes are operated by small jet aircrafts (B737 and A320), which have less than 200 seats. Darwin routes are operated by turbo prop or regional jet aircraft, which has less than 100 seats.

In 2017, the Denpasar route is largely operated by B737-200 or 500, with an approximate seat number of 199, accounting for 48% (1,532 flights). The Darwin route is operated by EMB170, with an approximate seat number of 76, accounting for 25% (814 flights); the Denpasar route is operated by B737-800, with an approximate seat number of 187, accounting for 20% (638 flights), and the Singapore route is operate by A320/319, with an approximate seat number of 150/128, accounting for 7% (210 flights).

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Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

Table 2-7 Types of Aircraft Operating (Times) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 B737 (122 seats) 12 4 CGK Sub Total 12 4 A320 (180 seats) 59 632 413 B737-200/500 (119 seats) 626 626 626 626 436 464 730 1,020 1,020 1,532 DPS B737-800 (187 seats) 82 638 CRJ1000 (96 seats) 184 Sub Total 626 626 626 626 436 464 730 1,263 1,734 2,583 A319 (128 seats) 70 204 286 310 381 384 282 286 180 2 SIN A320 (150 seats) 6 2 12 14 106 208 Sub Total 70 204 296 310 387 386 294 300 286 210 WMB170 (76 seats) 524 646 820 825 890 914 892 844 814 EMB120 (30 seats) 962 269 36 14 32 10 28 56 12 ERJ135/145 (50 seats) 26 DRW F70 (79 seats) 10 6 SA226/227 (19 seats) 2 4 12 Sub Total 962 821 682 834 857 904 952 966 856 814 Total 1,658 1,651 1,604 1,770 1,692 1,758 1,976 2,529 2,876 3,607

Note ( ): Average number of available seats Source: OAG Schedule Analyzer

(DPS) (DRW) (SIN) A320 A320 WMB170 5% 9% 18%

(SIN) A319 0% (DPS) B737- 200/500 (DPS) B737- 34% 800 34%

Source: OAG Schedule Analyzer Figure 2.9 Composition of International Flights by Type of Aircraft (2017) The current timetable in 2019 at PNLIA is shown in the tables below. Flights from/to Singapore are stopped now. There are four airlines currently in operation, such as Sriwijaya, Airnorth/Qantas, which are code-sharing flights operated by Airnorth and Citilink. All flights are inbound flights. The arrivals and departures are concentrated between 12:00 NN and 15:00 PM.

Table 2-8 Timetable of Sriwijaya Airlines in 2019 Flight Origin Destina- Dep. Arr. Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Air- Total tion Time Time craft Pas- Type sengers SJ270 Denpasar Dili 1045 1340 ✈ ✈ ✈ ✈ ✈ ✈ ✈ B737- 162 800 SJ271 Dili Denpasar 1430 1525 ✈ ✈ ✈ ✈ ✈ ✈ ✈ B737- 162 800 Source: Sriwijaya Airlines, Garuda Indonesia Table 2-9 Timetable of Airnorth Airlines in 2019 Flight Origin Destina- Dep. Arr. Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Aircraft Total Pas- tion Time Time Type sengers TL510 Darwin Dili 0545 0635 ✈ ✈ ✈ E170 76

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Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

TL511 Dili Darwin 0720 0910 ✈ E170 76 TL512 Darwin Dili 0630 0720 ✈ ✈ E170 76 TL513 Dili Darwin 0805 0955 ✈ ✈ E170 76 TL514 Darwin Dili 0955 1040 ✈ E170 76 TL515 Dili Darwin 1115 1305 ✈ ✈ ✈ E170 76 TL518 Darwin Dili 1530 1620 ✈ ✈ ✈ E170 76 TL518 Darwin Dili 1600 1650 ✈ E170 76 TL519 Dili Darwin 1705 1855 ✈ ✈ ✈ ✈ E170 76 Source: Airnorth Airlines Table 2-10 Timetable of Citilink Airlines in 2019 Flight Origin Destina- Dep. Arr. Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Aircraft Total Pas- tion Time Time Type sengers QG7300 Denpasar Dili 0925 1220 ✈ ✈ ✈ ✈ ✈ ✈ ✈ A320 180 QG7310 Dili Denpasar 1320 1410 ✈ ✈ ✈ ✈ ✈ ✈ ✈ A320 180 Source: Citilink Airlines As for the domestic routes, small aircrafts, such as DHC-6, are flying to Same, Atauro, Cakung, Fuiloro, Oecussi, and Suai. In addition to that, helicopters are being operated to Bau Undane, where an oil field exists. There is a chartered flight between Dili and Denpasar.

Table 2-11 Flight Status of Dili Airport Except Regular International Flight for two weeks in April of 2018 Number of Destination IATA code Operator Equipment Remarks Flight Same WPSM MAF International GippsAero GA8 Airvan 4 Atauro WPAT MAF International GippsAero GA9 Airvan 3 Cakung WPEC MAF International GippsAero GA10 Airvan 6 Fuiloro WPFL MAF International GippsAero GA11 Airvan 6 Kenn Borek Air DHC-6 (Twin Otter) 8 Oecussi WPOC MAF International GippsAero GA11 Airvan 2 Sub Total 10 Suai WPDB MAF International GippsAero GA11 Airvan 2 Babcock Offshore Services Australasia Eurocopter 31 Bau Undane YBYU Sikorsky Helibus 13 Sub Total 44 Babcock Offshore Services Australasia Sikorsky Helibus 10 Eurocopter 8 Dili WPDL Local Flights MAF International GippsAero GA11 Airvan 2 Sub Total 20 Denpasar WADD Lankair Private B737-500 10 Charter Flights Total 105 Source: Flightaware.com

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Atauro Cakung

DILI Fuiloro

Same

Suai Oecussi

Source: United Nations Figure 2.10 Domestic Regular Flight Status (April 2018) The Special Economic Zone for Social Market Economy of Timor-Leste (ZEESSM TL) operates regular domestic flights to Oecussi and Suai with DHC-6, specifically six roundtrips per week. 2.3 Options of Previous Studies and Ongoing Studies The Study on the Dili Airport Improvement Project was conducted by IFC, JICA, and ADB as well as Timor-Leste government up to now. The IFC study was the first comprehensive study which included the land side area/terminal area and air side area/runway area for Dili Airport from 2013 to 2015. ADB conducted a transport sector master plan which covered the Dili Airport improvement following the IFC master plan from 2014 to 2015. JICA conducted the Dili Urban Master Plan (hereinafter referred to as ‘JICA Dili Urban M/P’) wherein the Dili Airport was to be reviewed based on the IFC study and the ADB transport sector master plan from 2014 to 2016 and the detailed study of the terminal area for the grant aid project from 2018 to 2019. It is the latest study on the Dili Airport, which is known as “the Project for Improvement of Presidente Nicolau Lobato International Airport” (hereinafter referred to as the ‘JICA Airport Study’). The IFC and JICA airport studies summarized the component and runway options in a strong correlation with the services below.

2.3.1 IFC Study The IFC study was conducted in 2013 as a PPP scheme project. There are two options, including the initial stage and the ultimate stage. Option 1: Runway strip with 150 m width The feature of Option-1 is to construct a seawall at the west side and to install a 150 m wide runway strip for the initial stage/2,050 m and the ultimate stage/2,500 m. The Runway End Safety Area (RESA) is installed at 240 m length. However, in accordance with ICAO Annex 14, the runway strip is necessary

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Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

to install at 280 m2.

Source: IFC Figure 2.11 Option 1 Option 2: Runway strip 300 m width The feature of Option 2 is not to construct a seawall at the west side and to install a 300 m wide runway strip for the initial stage/2,100 m and the ultimate stage/2,500 m. The RESA is installed at 240 m length. This option is in full accordance with the ICAO Annex 14 recommendation.

Source: IFC

2 The latest ICAO Annex 14 (2018) version recommended is 280 m width. During IFC study period, width is 300 m in ICAO.

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Figure 2.12 Option 2

Review of options Option 1 is considered for maximum land area use for runway expansion, such as minimal sea reclamation with seawall and no interference with the river at the initial stage. The ultimate stage is only on the east side extension, and the river crossing area only has a pavement width of 45 m, with no consideration of runway strip width. Also, there is no detailed river crossing structure. Option 2 is considered for no sea reclamation. However, both the initial stage and the ultimate stage are necessary to construct the river crossing structure. The river crossing area only has a pavement width of 45 m. It is recommended for both options that all surrounding areas of the runway, including the runway strip, must be in accordance with the ICAO.

2.3.2 JICA Airport Study The scope of the JICA Airport Study includes mainly the terminal area facilities development in the land side, such as the new passenger terminal building, aircraft parking apron, vehicle access road and parking, and control tower. JICA Team conducted the preparation of a preliminary design, including the demand forecast, rough cost estimation of terminal area facilities development, and construction/procurement plans. The detailed facility contents of the JICA Airport Study are shown in the table below.

Table 2-12 JICA Airport Study Component Component Outline Remark International Passenger 1-story steel structure, 6,722 m2 1 Terminal Building Security Equipment：1 set International Cargo 1-story steel structure, 400 m2 Excluded from the 2 Terminal Building scope of the JICA grant International Apron Concrete pavement：10,890 m2 3 small jet paring 3 Asphalt pavement: 5,476 m2 stands, GSE area Taxiway Asphalt pavement ：9,527 m2 Taxiway shoulder 4 Asphalt pavement：3,002 m2 Airfield Ground Lighting Taxiway light, apron flood light, aero- Excluded from the 5 drome beacon scope of JICA Grant Car Park, Access Road Roadway: one lane each, width 3.25 m Car park is excluded 6 Asphalt pavement：12,876 m2 from the scope of the JICA grant. Air Traffic Control Tower ATC tower：400 m2 7 and Air Traffic Control Office：400 m2, one-story ATC equip- Equipment ment：1 set Substation Substation：250 m2, one-story emer- 8 gency standby generator Source: JICA

The runway component was not included in the JICA Airport Study. The project outline image, e.g., the new passenger terminal area perspective, is shown below.

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Terminal Area Perspective Terminal Area Perspective (Long term) Source: JICA Figure 2.13 JICA Airport Study Perspective

2.3.3 Timor- Leste Government Study The Ministry of Public Works, Transport and Communications (MPWTC) was prepared with the several options based on the IFC plans which has two stages. Stage-1 is the extension to 2,100 m, and Stage-2 is the extension to 2,500 m in 2015. During the field work in 2019, the latest information on the MPWTC runway expansion future plan was obtained, which was submitted to the National Development Agency (NDA) under the Ministry of Planning and Strategic Investment. However, only the runway length number was obtained (west side expansion 50 m and east side expansion 210 m total additional 260 m) through the official letter (see attached appendix) because it has not been approved by NDA yet. A similar layout of the Stage-2 expansion is shown below.

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Stage-1: 2,100 m extension The extension runway length up to 2,100 m (+ 250m additional) is necessary to construct minimal sea reclamation at the west (sea) side. The east (river) side spans up to edge of the Comoro River which does not interfere with the river, including river reservation. Through estimation of the passenger volume by MPWTC’s study, it is expected to handle 1 million passengers per year, and flight destination has direct access with some Asia-Pacific markets, such as Hongkong, Bangkok, and Sydney. The size of the runway strip is upgraded from 150 m width to 300 m width in accordance with ICAO Annex 143. How- ever, the RESA is not installed, and some areas of the west side runway strip is not sufficient according to the ICAO standard for this stage.

Source: MPWTC Figure 2.14 Stage-1 2,100 m Extension Stage-2: 2,500 m extension The extension runway length up to 2,500 m (+ 650 m additional) is only towards the east side no interference of the river, including the river reservation from Stage-1. The estimation of passenger volume was not clearly described in the study report. Only the land area of runway strip is sufficient in accordance with ICAO standard. The RESA is installed 240 m on both sides in this stage.

Source: MPWTC Figure 2.15 Stage-2: 2,500 m Extension

3 The latest ICAO Annex 14 (2016) version recommended is 280 m width.

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Alternative option of Stage-2: 2,500 m extension The alternative option of extension runway length up to 2,500 m (+ 650 m additional) towards the east side crossing of the Comoro River from Stage-1. The size of the runway strip is in accordance with ICAO standards, such as 300 m width without river crossing area where the width is only around 150 m. RESA is installed 240 m on both sides in this stage. However, the IFC report suggested high social disruption in the east side and flood risks of crossing the river.

Source: MPWTC Figure 2.16 Alternative Option of Stage-2 Extension Review of 3 options Stage-1 option only focuses on the runway length up to 2,100 m. Most of the runway strip was enlarged without the west part near the seaside according to ICAO standards, but RESA is not in accordance with ICAO standards. Stage-2 option has enough runway length for current aircraft types, such as B737 and A319. Also, it considers operating Code-E aircraft operations, such as B787 and A330. RESA is allocated the ICAO recommended length. However, the runway strip of the west expansion area is not sufficient according to ICAO. It should be noted that all options are not completely in accordance with ICAO standards, such as runway strip width. Hence, improvements are necessary. Also, the crossing river area of alternative option must be considered for high safety measure due to contact with external areas.

2.4 Air Traffic Forecast of Previous Studies The air traffic of passenger demand forecast has been prepared by IFC in 2014, ADB in 2014, and JICA Airport Study in 2019 as shown below in Figure 2.17. JICA conducted demand forecast till 2040 and reached about 780,000 passengers. On the other hand, demand forecast by IFC is till 2035 and reached about 520,000 passengers, forecast by ADB is till 2030 and reached about 500,000 passengers. Com- paring these forecasts, forecast by ADB does not show a smooth increase around 2025. As for the forecast of IFC, there is a gap between actual air passengers and forecasted line in the figure. Considering these things, JICA`s forecast seems to show the most natural forecast line of those three demand forecasts. Therefor the forecast model by JICA is explained and revised in Chapter 2.5 below.

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persons 800,000 Actual Air Passengers 700,000 Forecasted 2019 (JICA) Forecasted 2012 (IFC) 600,000 Reviewed in 2014 (ADB Team) 500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000 year 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Source: IFC, ADB, JICA Figure 2.17 Traffic Demand Forecast (Passengers) 2.5 Revised Traffic Forecast The JICA demand forecast analysis is shown below. The forecast model of international passengers was examined through regression analysis based on the passenger traffic and GDP (excluding oil) records for ten years from 2008 to 2017. The forecast model is shown below. Forecast Model of International Passenger Pax ＝ 0.2536×GDP－79 (r2 = 0.9767)

where Pax: international passenger movements in Dili (thousands)

GDP: million USD at 2010 constant prices

For domestic passenger demand, the forecast was the difference between the estimated forecast of international passengers and total passengers which is shown below because actual records of domestic passenger are insufficient to be analyzed statistically. Forecast Model of Total Passenger Pax ＝ 0.2878×GDP－88.5 (r2 = 0.9725)

where Pax: total passenger movements in Dili (thousands)

GDP: million USD at 2010 constant prices

The JICA demand forecast is reviewed below. - Based on the traffic data for the past 12 years, regression analysis was carried out to use the real GDP4 excluding as an explanatory variable. The coefficient of determination was 0.977, and the T-value was

4 Real GDP is a measurement of economic output that accounts for the effects of inflation or deflation.

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33 which gave a good correlation. - The forecast model formula was calculated at around 5% to 7% of the annual growth rate, which was reasonable because the annual growth rate from 2010 to 2018 was around 6% to 8%. - The future forecast of the real GDP as an explanatory was reasonable due to the 1% decline. However, the review on the cargo demand forecast also showed that there is no correlation between cargo activity and GDP, but passenger and cargo activity have a correlation, with 0.907 coefficient determination. Therefore, the result is reasonable. Therefore, the JICA forecast model is used and calculated after 2035 for other evaluations such as the variability analysis. The estimated demand forecast is shown in the figure and table below.

persons 1,600,000

Actual International Pax Forecast International Pax 1,400,000 Actual Domestic Pax Forecast Domestic Pax 1,200,000 Actual Total Pax Forecast Total Pax

1,000,000

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

year 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Source: The Study Team based on JICA Data Figure 2.18 Passenger Movement (2010 to 2055)

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Table 2-13 Passenger Movement (2010 to 2055) GDP (million US$) Air Passengers (thousand persons) CY constant prices International Domestic Total Value Change Number Change Number Change Number Change 2010 894 133.2 16.7 150.0 Actual 2011 965 7.9% 143.7 7.9% 7.8 -53.3% 151.5 1.0% 2012 1,014 5.0% 168.7 17.4% 10.1 29.5% 178.8 18.0% 2013 1,041 2.6% 192.0 13.8% 12.9 27.7% 204.9 14.6% 2014 1,083 4.1% 189.5 -1.3% 17.4 34.9% 206.8 0.9% 2015 1,127 4.0% 193.0 1.8% 19.0 9.2% 212.0 2.5% 2016 1,186 5.3% 212.7 10.2% 16.4 -13.7% 229.2 8.1% 2017 1,165 -1.8% 216.4 1.7% 30.3 84.8% 246.7 7.6% 2018 1,191 2.2% 222.9 3.0% 31.2 3.0% 254.1 3.0% Forecast 2019 1,241 4.2% 235.6 5.7% 32.9 5.4% 268.5 5.7% 2020 1,303 5.0% 251.3 6.7% 35.0 6.4% 286.3 6.6% 2021 1,368 5.0% 267.8 6.6% 37.3 6.6% 305.1 6.6% 2022 1,433 4.8% 284.5 6.2% 39.5 5.9% 324.0 6.2% 2023 1,502 4.8% 301.9 6.1% 41.8 5.8% 343.8 6.1% 2024 1,571 4.6% 319.5 5.8% 44.2 5.7% 363.7 5.8% 2025 1,644 4.6% 337.8 5.7% 46.7 5.7% 384.5 5.7% 2026 1,716 4.4% 356.1 5.4% 49.1 5.1% 405.3 5.4% 2027 1,791 4.4% 375.3 5.4% 51.7 5.3% 427.0 5.4% 2028 1,867 4.2% 394.4 5.1% 54.3 5.0% 448.6 5.1% 2029 1,945 4.2% 414.2 5.0% 57.0 5.0% 471.2 5.0% 2030 2,023 4.0% 434.0 4.8% 59.6 4.6% 493.6 4.8% 2031 2,104 4.0% 454.5 4.7% 62.4 4.7% 516.9 4.7% 2032 2,188 4.0% 475.8 4.7% 65.3 4.6% 541.1 4.7% 2033 2,276 4.0% 498.0 4.7% 68.3 4.6% 566.3 4.7% 2034 2,367 4.0% 521.1 4.6% 71.4 4.5% 592.5 4.6% 2035 2,461 4.0% 545.1 4.6% 74.6 4.5% 619.7 4.6% 2036 2,560 4.0% 570.1 4.6% 78.0 4.6% 648.0 4.6% 2037 2,662 4.0% 596.0 4.5% 81.5 4.5% 677.5 4.6% 2038 2,769 4.0% 623.0 4.5% 85.1 4.4% 708.1 4.5% 2039 2,879 4.0% 651.0 4.5% 88.9 4.5% 740.0 4.5% 2040 2,994 4.0% 680.3 4.5% 92.8 4.4% 773.1 4.5% 2041 3,108 3.8% 710.8 4.5% 97.0 4.5% 807.8 4.5% 2042 3,226 3.8% 740.8 4.2% 101.1 4.2% 841.8 4.2% 2043 3,349 3.8% 771.9 4.2% 105.3 4.2% 877.2 4.2% 2044 3,476 3.8% 804.3 4.2% 109.6 4.1% 913.9 4.2% 2045 3,608 3.8% 837.8 4.2% 114.1 4.1% 952.0 4.2% 2046 3,745 3.8% 872.7 4.2% 118.8 4.1% 991.5 4.2% 2047 3,888 3.8% 908.8 4.1% 123.7 4.1% 1032.5 4.1% 2048 4,035 3.8% 946.4 4.1% 128.8 4.1% 1075.1 4.1% 2049 4,189 3.8% 985.3 4.1% 134.0 4.1% 1119.4 4.1% 2050 4,348 3.8% 1,025.8 4.1% 139.5 4.1% 1165.3 4.1% 2051 4,504 3.6% 1,067.7 4.1% 145.1 4.1% 1212.9 4.1% 2052 4,667 3.6% 1,109.0 3.9% 150.7 3.8% 1259.7 3.9% 2053 4,835 3.6% 1,151.8 3.9% 156.5 3.8% 1308.3 3.9% 2054 5,009 3.6% 1,196.1 3.8% 162.5 3.8% 1358.6 3.8% 2055 5,189 3.6% 1,242.0 3.8% 168.6 3.8% 1410.7 3.8% Source: The Study Team

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2.6 Airport Layout Plan Based on the review of previous and ongoing studies, the basic airport layout plan shown below is recommended. The concept complies with the minimum requirement such as Annex 14 of the ICAO Standards. The facility and equipment for air traffic control are based on the current situation and follow the JICA Airport Study. According to the JICA Airport Study, there is no need to introduce a radar system so far considering air traffic volume until 2017, which means the current situation of Dili Airport is enough to proceed the airport operations. ANATL also plans to introduce PBN (PBN: Performance Based Navigation). There- for a radar system will not be necessary for Dili Airport. However, the airport layout plan should follow recommendations of ICAO Annex 14. Therefore, it is recommended to have the 2,500 m long runway airport layout plan as shown below. Based on the ICAO Annex 14, runway strip shall extend the threshold and beyond the end of the runway for distance of at least 60 m. Dimension of runway end safety areas (RESA) is described below, “a runway end safety area shall extend from the end of a runway strip to a distance of at least 90 m.” and “a runway end safety area should, as far as practicable, extend from the end of a runway strip to a distance at least 240 m.” However, airport layout plan includes buffer area for perimeter road and fence around 20 m from threshold of runway strip and/ or RESA.

Source: The Study Team Figure 2.19 Layout Plan (2,500 m long Runway)

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2.7 Technical Aspect 2.7.1 Topographic The airport land is mainly flat. The east part of the land have higher elevation than the west part, however its gradient is gentle. The slope of the runway is around 0.1 %.

Source: Land and Property Figure 2.20 Topographic Map The west side and north side of the airport land are close to sea, the east side of the land is close to Comoro river. There is a hill at south west from the airport land. Therefore, the land for expansion of the airport is limited.

2.7.2 Geotechnical Around Runway The borehole log of BH-1 near west side of the runway threshold and BH-2 near west side of the runway threshold are shown in Figure 2.22 and Figure 2.23.

Source: The Study Team Figure 2.21 Location of Boring Survey

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Source: The Study Team Figure 2.22 Borehole Log of BH-1

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Source: The Study Team Figure 2.23 Borehole Log of BH-2 As shown in the above borehole logs, the subsurface soil at 1 m of depth around the runway is very dense since N-value show at least over 40. N values of the soil from 2 m to 4 m of depth are from 8 to 28. The soil at BH-2 is relatively looser than that of BH-1.

These soils contain a lot of gravel, and it seems that some of these soils are earthwork material upon construction of Dili Airport.

Around Passenger Terminal Building According to the result of geotechnical survey by JICA study team in 2018 around the existing terminal building area, the soils in this area are mainly silty soil or sandy soil. Some gravelly soil layers and clayey soil layers can also be found partially.

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The summary of N value from SPT by the survey of JICA study team are shown in Figure 2.24.

Source: JICA Figure 2.24 Summary of N Value of Geotechnical Survey by JICA

Source: JICA Figure 2.25 Location of Geotechnical Survey by JICA The hard soil layers which N value are over 30 are mainly found around 15 m of depth. The soft soil layer which N value are less than 5 are found in some locations from surface to 10 m of depth.

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2.7.3 Runway General The dimension of current runway is 1850 m length and 30 m width. It is difficult to operate the long distance even by Code-C aircraft in this runway length without the limitation of payload. The width is also not enough from the required runway width specified in ICAO Annex 14.

The safety area at the runway end such as stop way, clear way5 are also short, and it is not safe in case of accident of aircraft operation such as overrun.

ARP: Airport Reference Point DVOR: Doppler VHF Omni-directional Radio Range DME: Distance Measurement System ELEV: Elevation NDB: Non-Directional Beacon PAPI: Precision Approach Lighting System TWR: Air Control Tower Source: Aeronautical Information Publication (AIP) WDI: Wind Direction Indicator Figure 2.26 Airport Facility

Source: AW3D Figure 2.27 Airport Layout Satellite Image Pavement Based on the result of the visual inspection pavement survey, the situation of the runway pavement surface in Dili Airport is not very damaged. The runway pavement is maintained in good conditions by the airport staff.

The Air Navigation of Timor-Leste (Empresa Pública Administração de Aeroporto e Navegação Aerea de Timor-Leste: ANATL) have conducted the pavement repair works at 26 side more than 08 side, since

5 Stop way and Clear way is the part of runway area and defined in ICAO Annex 14.

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the condition of pavement surface at 26 side is relatively worse than 08 side.

Photo 2.1 Runway Situation (08 side) Photo 2.2 Runway Situation (26 side)

Based on the result of the runway pavement core sampling, the thickness of surface asphalt layer is estimated as 30 cm at west side, and 23 cm at east side.

Based on the observation of test pit, the thickness of base course layer is estimated as 45 cm to 55 cm, depending on the location.

2.8 Environmental Aspect 2.8.1 Survey Items and Method The survey aims to collect the environmental information necessary to conduct pre-feasibility study level assessments of project options. The data and information related to the baseline of environmental conditions in the possible project-affected area were collected through desk review, walkover survey, and meetings with relevant authorities and organizations. The items and means of survey are summarized in the table below. The survey items were selected considering key environmental aspects of project options that would have different effects on surrounding areas.

Table 2-14 Items and Means of Survey Category Survey Item Means of Survey Flora and fauna - Marine flora and fauna - Interview with relevant authorities and organiza- - Terrestrial flora and fauna tions - Endangered species - Literature survey - Endemic species - Walkover survey - Coral reef - Sea grasses Protected area - National park - Interview with relevant authorities and organiza- - Important bird area tions - Literature survey Pollution - Air quality, water quality and soil quality - Interview with relevant authorities and organiza- - Noise level tions - Noise-sensitive facilities - Literature survey - Walkover survey Natural re- - Water resources - Interview with relevant authorities and organiza- sources - Mining resources tions - Literature survey - Walkover survey Source: The Study Team

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2.8.2 Environmental Baseline Observed environmental condition The observed environment conditions in the surrounding area of the Dili Airport are described as follows: - The western side of the Dili Airport runway is situated in the seaside, where the coastline is protected by concrete blocks. The natural sand coastline is preserved in the adjacent area, particularly Tasi Tolu Beach southwest of airport, and Beto Tasi Beach north of airport. - The Tasi Tolu protected area lies southwest of the airport. The traditional house prepared for the visit of Pope John Paul II in 1989, is located near the Tasi Tolu lake and is worshipped as a cultural and historical asset in Tasi Tolu. The Tasi Tolu Beach is used for bathing and leisure by locals and tourists. Artisanal fishing and diving activities are conducted in the coastal sea area in Tasi Tolu. - The residential area north of airport includes houses, small-sized agricultural land, school, church, and cemetery. The Beto Tasi Beach is a hidden beach known by local communities and is also used as a local fishing beach. - The Comoro River flows in the east side of the airport eventually reaching the sea. The river channel is mined for gravels and sands.

Tasi Tolu Lake Tasi Tolu Beach

Beto Tasi Beach Comoro River (dry season) Source: The Study Team Figure 2.28 Pictures in the Surroundings of Dili Airport Biodiversity The flora and fauna in Timor-Leste are varied. A total of 2,448 terrestrial and marine species are reported by the National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan. Data from detailed surveys of flora and fauna in the surroundings of Dili Airport are not available. However, some information on terrestrial and marine species and habitats were obtained from existing literature.

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Endangered species in Timor-Leste A list of endangered species in Timor-Leste is provided in the tables below. Information specific to terrestrial and marine species are shown in the following description. Table 2-15 List of Endangered Terrestrial Plant and Animal Species in Timor-Leste Category Common Name Scientific Name IUCN Threatening Process Status Trees Sandalwood Santalum album VU Habitat loss, fires, agriculture, extraction Borneo teak Intsia bijuga VU Habitat loss, selective logging Burmese rosewood Pterocarpus indicus VU Habitat loss, agriculture, selective logging - Mangifera timorensis EN Birds Timor green pigeon Treron psittaceus EN Habitat loss, agriculture, hunting Timor imperial pigeon Ducula cineracea EN Water ground dove Gallicolumba hoedtii EN Yellow-crested cockatoo Cacatua sulphurea CR Habitat loss, harvest for pet trade, agriculture Slaty cuckoo dove Turacoena modesta Iris lorikeet Psitteuteles iris Terrestrial Thin shrew Crocidura tenuis VU Habitat loss, degradation, re- Mammals and stricted range Reptiles Western naked-backed bat Dobsonia peronei VU Habitat loss, extraction, restricted range Mentawai palm civet Paradoxurus her- VU maphrodites Long-tailed macaque Macaca fascicularis NT, CITES Northern common Phalanger orientalis CITES cuscus Timor leaf-nosed bat Hipposideros DD crumeniferus Greater long-eared bat Nyctophilus timorensis VU Schreibers’ bent-winged Miniopterus NT bat schreibersii Timor monitor lizard Varanus timorensis CITES Estuarine crocodile Crocodylus porosus CITES Timor python Python timorensis CITES Insects Timor yellow tiger Parantia timorica EN Severely fragmented population with ongoing decline Note: IUCN status is updated based on the latest IUCN Red List of threatened species as of October 2019. Least Concerned species shown are not indicated in this table. IUCN Red List category of long-tailed macaque is checked for Macaca fascicularis ssp. Philippensis. International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Status: CR: Critically Endangered, EN: Endangered, VU: Vulnerable, NT: Near Threat- ened, DD: Data Deficient CITES: Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora Sources: The National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan of Timor-Leste (2011– 2020) Revised Edition 2015 Table 2-16 List of Endangered Marine Species in Timor-Leste Category Common Name Scientific Name IUCN Status Marine species Green turtle Chelonia mydas EN Hawksbill turtle Eretmochelys imbricate CR Leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea CR Loggerhead turtle Caretta EN Olive turtle Lepidochelys olivacea EN Dugong Dugong dugon VU Sperm whale Physeter catodon VU Killer whale Orcinus orca DD, CITES Spinner dolphin Stenella longirostris LC, CITES Basking shark Rhincodon typus VU Southern giant clam Tridacna derasa VU Giant clam Tridacna gigas VU

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Small giant clam Tridacna maxima LR/cd Fluted giant clam Tridacna squamosa LR/cd Bear paw clam Hippopus LR/cd China clam Hippopus porcellanus LR/cd Giant coconut crab Birgus latro DD Note: IUCN status is updated based on the latest IUCN Red List as of October 2019. Least Concerned species such as Turslops truncates are not indicated in this table. International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Status: CR: Critically Endangered, EN: Endangered, VU: Vulnerable, DD: Data Defi- cient, cd: Conservation Independent CITES: Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora Sources: The National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan of Timor-Leste (2011– 2020) Revised Edition 2015 Vegetation Kayu Merah (Pterocarpus indicus), Ekaliptus (Eucalyptus alba), Sengon (Albizia falcataria), and Ce- mara (Casuarina spp) are reported as the main tree species in the Dili District (East Timor Agriculture and Virtual Library, 2004). The observed tree species in and near the Dili Airport in the past study included Hanek, Dila, Sukaer, Malae, Hudi, Bak Moruk, and Kaichoti. No endangered species were reported in the surroundings of Dili Airport (Preparatory Survey for the Project for Improvement of Presidente Nicolau Lobato Interna- tional Airport, 2019). The trees typical in commercial-residential mixed urban zones, such as Red Ba- nana (Musa spp.) and Palm tree (Arecaceae), were also observed from the walkover survey.

Birds According to the National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan of Timor-Leste (2011– 2020), at least 262 bird species are known from Timor, where 169 are considered resident species, 76 regular migrants, and 17 vagrants. Three bird species were identified to be endangered and one is vulnerable. In the Tasi Tolu Important Bird Area (IBA), a total of 71 bird species are reported, which includes 7 species listed as Nearly Threatened in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List and 15 species listed as Restricted-range species. Table 2-17 List of Terrestrial and Water Bird Species of Tasi Tolu Lake Area IUCN EBA No. English Name Scientific Name Status Status 1 Timor Black Pigeon Turacoena modesta NT RR 2 Pink-headed Imperial Pigeon Ducula rosacea NT RR 3 White-bellied Bush-chat Saxicola gutturalis NT RR 4 Timor Sparrow Padda fuscata NT RR 5 Olive-shouldered Parrot Aprosmictus jonquillaceus NT RR 6 Olive-headed Lorikeet Trichoglossus euteles - RR 7 Streak-breasted Meliphaga Meliphaga reticulata - RR 8 Timor Friarbird Philemon inornatus - RR 9 Yellow-eared Honeyeater Lichmera flavicans - RR 10 Black-chested Honeyeater Myzomela vulnerata - RR 11 Plain Gerygone Gerygone inornata - RR 12 Fawn-breasted Whistler Pachycephala orpheus - RR 13 Timor Oriole Oriolus melanotis - RR 14 Red-chested Flowerpecker Dicaeum maugei - RR 15 Flame-breasted Sunbird Nectarinia solaris - RR 16 Brahminy Kite Haliastur indus - - 17 Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa NT - 18 Dater Anhinga melanogaster NT - 19 Australian Pelican Pelecanus conspicillatus - - 20 Oriental Plover Charadrius veredus - - 21 Little Black Cormorant Phalacrocorax sulcirostris - - 22 Little Pied Cormorant Phalacrocorax melanoleucos - - 23 Red-capped Plover Charadrius ruficapillus - -

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24 Pacific Golden Plover Pluvialis fulva - - 25 Little Ringed Plover Charadrius dubius - - 26 Greater Sand-plover Charadrius leschenaultii - - 27 Lesser Sand-plover Charadrius mongolus - - 28 Kentish Plover Charadrius alexandrinus - - 29 Curlew Sandpiper Calidris ferruginea - - 30 Rufous-necked Stint Calidris ruficollis - - 31 Sharp-tailed Sandpiper Calidris acuminata - - 32 Great Knot Calidris tenuirostris - - 34 Long-toed Stint Calidris subminuta - - 35 Sanderling Calidris alba - - 36 Whimbrel Numenius phaeopus - - 37 Far Eastern Curlew Numenius madagascariensis - - 38 Bar-tailed Godwit Limosa lapponica - - 39 Little Curlew Numenius minutus - - 40 Pacific Reef egret Egretta sacra - - 41 Little Egret Egretta garzetta - - 42 Pied Egret Egretta picata - - 43 White-faced Heron Egretta novaehollandiae - - 44 Little Black Cormorant Phalacrocorax sulcirostris - - 45 Little Pied Cormorant Phalacrocorax melanoleucos - - 46 Terek Sandpiper Xenus cinereus - - 47 Marsh Sandpiper Tringa stagnatilis - - 48 Common Redshank Tringa totanus - - 49 Common Sandpiper Actitis hypoleucos - - 50 Common Greenshank Tringa nebularia - - 51 Black-winged Stilt Himantopus himantopus - - 52 Australian Pratincole Stiltia isabella - - 53 Wood Sandpiper Tringa glareola - - 54 Ruddy Turnstone Arenaria interpres - - 55 Grey-tailed Tattler Heteroscelus brevipes - - 56 Richard's Pipit Anthus novaeseelandiae - - 57 Australasian Bush-lark Mirafra javanica - - 58 Yellow Wagtail Motacilla flava - - 59 Sunda Teal Anas gibberifrons - - 60 Pacific Black Duck Anas superciliosa - - 61 Red-throated Little Grebe Tachybaptus ruficollis - - 62 Hardhead Aythya australis - - 63 Royal Spoonbill Platalea regia - - 64 Cattle Egret Bubulcus ibis - - 65 Collared Kingfisher Todiramphus chloris - - 66 Common Kingfisher Alcedo atthis - - 67 Grey Plover Pluvialis squatarola - - 68 Pacific Golden Plover Pluvialis fulva - - 69 Great Crested Tern Sterna bergii - - 70 Whiskered Tern Chlidonias hybridus - - 71 Oriental Pratincole Glareola maldivarum - - IUCN Status: NT- Near Threatened. EBA(Endemic Bird Area): RR- Restricted-range species Sources: Department of Forestry, Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries

Terrestrial fauna The non-bird fauna of Timor-Leste is poorly known from recent surveys, although some available evi- dence indicated that there are high levels of endemism in all faunal groups. The terrestrial endangered species were not observed or confirmed in and around the Dili Airport as of April 2018 from the Preparatory Survey for the Project for Improvement of Presidente Nicolau Lobato International Airport. Besides, the project affected area is located in the urban and residential zone. It is

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unlikely that there are terrestrial endangered species, except bird habitat in the project affected area. However, terrestrial fauna should be also investigated by the forthcoming project stage. Marine flora and fauna in Timor-Leste The marine species in Timor-Leste is also rich in diversity. Of the 75% of all known coral species, more than 3,000 species of reef fishes and six of the seven known turtle species6 inhabit Timor-Leste. It is also home to whale sharks, manta rays, and a diverse array of marine mammals, such as 22 species of dolphins and a variety of whale species.7 The list of endangered marine species in Timor-Leste includes five species of turtles, dugongs, whales, sharks, and two species of clam. Special notes to be made for biodiversity in the project affected area are summarized as follows: - Dugong: The dugong is often observed in the Tasi Tolu coastal sea which is one of the important dugong’s habitats in Timor-Leste. The dugong is an aquatic protected species under Joint Min- isterial Order No.18/MAP/MCIA/II/2017, establishing the List of Protected Aquatic Species. The distribution of dugongs in Timor-Leste is unknown while sightings of the species were recorded on the northern coast of the country and from Atauro Island. A survey conducted in 2008 reported that dugongs are rare with one being spotted in the northwest and five in the north-east of the country8. Detailed information regarding habitat location, size, and characteristics of dugongs in Tasi Tolu are not currently available. - Turtle: The north coastal line in Dili is known as a nesting ground for sea turtles: hawksbill turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata; CR-Critically Endangered categorized by IUCN Red list), Olive Rid- ley (Lepidochelys olivacea; VU-Vulnerable), and Green turtle (Chelonia mydas; EN- Endangered) according to information by Conservation International Timor-Leste office. Turtle hatching regularly occurs on the Tasi Tolu Beach and Beto Tasi Beach. - Seagrass: In the north coast, the coastal shallow area is dominated by seagrass bed of around 2,200 hectares. Seven genera are known to exist around Timor-Leste, namely Halodule, Hal- ophila, Enhalus, Cymodocea, Syringodium, Thalassia, and Thalassodendron9. Seagrass, which serves dugongs, is also distributed along the Tasi Tolu Beach, such as Halophila decipiens (LC- Least Concern), Halodule pinifolia (LC), Enhalus acoroides (LC). It is obvious that dugongs feed and rely on seagrass ecosystem. However, the exact area and species of seagrass have not yet been investigated. - Coral: Timor-Leste is part of the Coral Triangle Initiative, the center of marine biodiversity. The coastal area is extremely important for the conservation of marine biodiversity and endangered marine species, such as turtles, dugongs, and dolphins. The information on coral in Tasi Tolu is reported by EIA of Pelican Paradise Development pro- ject10 in 2016. The results showed that the diversity and coral coverage ranges in the surveyed transects from Dili Rock to Tasi Tolu beach: one survey line transect had most live hard and soft corals dominated for 40 - 42 % in which there are highest diversity of 10 coral genus, while the other deeper transect had mostly sand (58%), rubble (40%) and only 2% algae. The survey concluded that the reefs west of Dili Rock are healthy and diverse while east of Dili Rock has lower coverage and more coral rubbles. The other transect survey of reef corals in Tasi Tolu beach identified high live coral cover (72%), consisting of total of approximately 25 genera which are dominated by soft corals such as Sinularia sp., Physogyra sp., Tubastraea sp. and Tubinaria sp., hard corals such as Gungia sp., Porites sp. and Euphylia sp., and Acropora corals.

6 Country presentation: Timor-Leste at inception workshop the GEF Dugong and Seagrass Conservation Project, 2015 (http://www.dugongconservation.org/media/2016/05/TImor-Leste-Couintry-Presentation-LK-Oct-2015.pdf) 7 The National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan of Timor-Leste (2011– 2020) Revised Edition 2015 8 Dethmers, etc., Marine megafauna surveys in Timor-Leste: identifying opportunities for potential ecotourism-Final Report, Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Government of Timor-Leste, 2009 9 http://www.dugongconservation.org/media/2016/06/Country-Overview-Timor-Leste.pdf 10 https://www.laohamutuk.org/Env/TibarPort/

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Additional available data is taken from a coral survey implemented at the Dili Port, where one species is listed as Vulnerable in the IUCN Red List (Heliofungia actiniformis), one listed as Near Threatened (Diploastrea heliopora), and four listed as Least Concerned (Project of the Urgent Shift of Ferry Terminal in Dili Port, 2015).

*Note: The boundary of protected area shown in this map is proposed draft boundary. The boundary of Tasi Tolu protected area has not been officially designated. Sources: Conservation International

Figure 2.29 Coral and Seagrass Map in Tasi Tolu Protected area The possible project area is not included in the protected area legally declared by GoTL, as confirmed by the National Directorate of Forestry under the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries as well as the National Directorate of Environment (NDE) under the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Environ- ment (MCIE). Decree Law No.5/2016, National system for protected area designates Tasi Tolu protected area. However, the boundary has not been officially specified. According to explanation given by the Department of Protected Area under the National Directorate of Forestry, the Tasi Tolu protected area is only located in terrestrial area, but not including the marine area. On the other hand, designation of Tasi Tolu Marine protected area is under consideration by Department of Fisheries as of October 2019, although the boundary has not yet been drafted. Besides, 1,540 ha of the Tasi Tolu area is designated as an Important Bird Area (IBA) by the international NGO, Birdlife International, which is recognized as a globally important habitat for the conservation of bird populations.

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Source: Fourth National Report to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, 2011 Figure 2.30 Designated Protected Area in Timor Leste

Dili International Airport

Note: Tasi Tolu IBA is highlighted in gray. Source: Birdlife International Figure 2.31 Tasi Tolu Important Bird Area Pollution status The regular monitoring work for ambient environmental quality is not conducted by the Directorate of Environment under the Ministry of Commerce, Industry, and Environment. Thus, data from the past environmental studies conducted for infrastructure development projects in Dili are referred to study the general environmental baseline. No standard for environmental quality, such as air quality and water quality criteria, have been developed yet in Timor-Leste. According to the information provided by the Department of EIA, Directorate of Environment, internationally-recognized standards, such as the World Health Organization (WHO) standard or standards of neighboring countries such as Indonesia, are commonly used in EIA studies in Timor-Leste.

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Air quality Ambient air quality data in the surrounding area of Dili airport can be referred to baseline air quality measurement results in 2016 conducted by EIA of Pelican Paradise Development project. Results met with WHO Air Quality Guidelines except PM2.5 at two measurement points and PM10 at one measurement point. Another ambient air quality data was referred from the Project of the Urgent Shift of Ferry Terminal in Dili Port, which targeted SO2, CO, NO2, O3, HC, Total Suspended Particular (TSP), PM10, PM2.5, and Pb. The analysis result for monitoring point in the Dili Port did not exceed the criteria cited from the standards of WHO, Japan, and the United States. Surface water quality The appearance of coastal water near Dili airport is clear, but especially Tasi Tolu coastal water receives pollution loads from soil and sediment runoff from erosion and road construction work etc., as well as untreated sewage discharged from communities and urban area. The Comoro River seems to have more pollution load from upstream basin, where sand and gravel mining activities are also considered as cause of increase in turbidity, suspended solid and other pollutants in the river water. In the EIA report of Pelican Paradise Development project (2016), the seawater quality results for three sampling points in Tasi Tolu coastal water were evaluated compared to the limits of Class 2 (for marine life, fisheries, coral reef etc.) under Malaysian Marine Water Quality Criteria and Standards (MWQCS), since there are no marine water quality standards in Timor-Leste. The results indicated dysoxic environment and high organic pollutants measured by Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD). Cadmium at one sampling point slightly exceeded the standards while the other monitoring parameters met with the standards. Another water quality data is obtained for Dili Port located 5 km to the east from the Dili Airport. The survey was conducted in the Project for urgent shift of the ferry terminal in Dili Port in 2015. The result showed that only the value of dissolved oxygen (DO) did not meet the sea water quality standard in Indonesia. However, other parameters (total phosphate, oil and grease, turbidity, pH, total coliforms, total suspended solids, COD, and total nitrogen) indicated acceptable water quality compared with standards applied in Indonesia or WHO. Noise Aviation noise is not monitored by ANATL, and no data is available. However, it is obvious that the residential area around the Dili Airport, especially in Madohi Village in the east of the airport runway located under flight paths, suffers significantly from aircraft noise. The vehicle traffic noise was measured in the Preparatory Survey for the Project for Improvement of Dili Airport. The result was compared with the criteria of Indonesia, IFC, and Request Limits for Motor Vehicle Noise under the Noise Regulation Law, Japan. Among the three monitoring points, the noise level at two monitoring points met the three criteria (70 dB or 75 dB). Another point in the south of the airport indicated 71.5 dB, exceeding the criteria in Indonesia and IFC, but met the Request Noise Limits in Japan.

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Source: Final report, Preparatory Survey for the Project for Improvement of Presidente Nicolau Lobato International Airport, 2019 Figure 2.32 Noise Level in the Surroundings of Dili Airport Noise-sensitive receptors Sensitive noise receptors, such as schools and churches, within a distance of 1.5 m from the Dili Airport were listed in the table below. Table 2-18 List of Sensitive Receptors in the Surroundings of Dili Airport Village Type of Facility Name of Facility Shortest Distance from Run- way on the Map Madohi School Beto Tasi Elementary School 0.1 km Madohi School S. Miguel School 0.6 km Madohi School 30 de Agosto School 0.8 km Madohi Cemetery Cemetery Bato Tasi 0.3 km Madohi Cemetery Cemetery Rai Kotu 0.4 km Madohi Cultural facility Moris Art 0.8 km Madohi Training center Police Academy 0.7 km Madohi Chapel Chapel Beto Tasi 0.3 km Madohi Clinic Clinic Anin Fuik 0.4 km Madohi Kindergarten Kindergarten in Madohi 0.4 km Madohi Chapel Chapel Anin Fuik 0.4 km Comoro School S. Pedro School 1.1 km Comoro Training center Don Bosco Training Center 0.9 km Comoro Church Maria Auxiliadora das Cris- 1.1 km toes Comoro Religious facility Priest’s convent 1.0 km Comoro Religious facility Sister’s and mother’s convent 0.7 km Comoro Church Protestant church 1.2 km Bebonuk School Elementary school of Be- 0.9 km bonuk Bebonuk Cemetery Cemetery of Bebonuk 0.5 km Bebonuk Chapel Protestant chapel 1.3 km Sources: The Study Team

Natural resources Key natural resources in the surroundings of Dili Airport are identified as a mining resource in the Com- oro River and an underground water resource besides the natural ecosystem. Water resource

Main surface water around the Dili Airport are the Comoro River located at a distance of 1 km east of the airport, Tasi Tolu Lakes at 1.5 km southwest of the airport, and Beto Tasi Beach 0.6 km north of the

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airport. Regarding groundwater resources, the large aquifer known as the Dili Groundwater Basis (DGB) is situated downstream of the Comoro River basin and is formed from quaternary sedimentary deposits in the Dili alluvial plain. The researchers noted that development activities, such as the construction of river banks, wetlands, and drainage without considering the health of the groundwater endowment, is placing stress on the aquifer by limiting the recharge in the wet season. The increasing groundwater abstraction had caused saltwater intrusion (Sangam Shrestha et al., Groundwater Environment in Asian Cities, 2016). Another report on salt water intrusion showed that high content of salts in the downstream of the Comoro River is detected at an average depth 140 m (Lindsay Gurness, 2011). According to information from the Preparatory Survey for the Project for Improvement of Dili Airport, the groundwater level around the Dili Airport is below 4 m or 5 m from the ground surface. ANATL and the neighborhood community use more than 10 m deep wells for water intake. The groundwater quality of wells around the airport indicated that the pH ranged from 7.1 to 8.1, and EC ranged from 0.39 mS/m to 0.82 mS/m, which did not indicate saltwater intrusion at the sampling time. Mining resource in the Comoro River

The sand and gravel resources of Timor-Leste are extensive. The small-scale artisanal mining excavation is actively conducted in the Comoro River valleys which have large and thick alluvium deposits (Geo- logical Society of London, Sustainable Minerals Operations in the Developing World, 2005). Mining activities shall be licensed by Autoridade Nacional do Petróleo e Minerais (ANPM), which is the government authority responsible for petroleum and mining areas. In Timor-Leste, over 1 billion tons of gravel and sands are extracted for construction material in 2017 (ANPM Annual Report, 2017). The production amount from the downstream channel of the Comoro River is not officially reported.

2.9 Social Safeguard Aspect 2.9.1 Current Social Condition of the Project Site Location Presidente Nicolau Lobato International Airport is located in the north-western part of Dom Aeixo Dis- trict, Dili City. Present runway is located in Suco11 Madohi and the runway will be extended in some options to Suco Bebonuk, east of the Comoro River. Suco Madohi and Suco Bebonuk have been recently separated from Suco Comoro. A Suco consists of several aldeiasd which is local community or hamlet and has chief.

11 Suco is the lowest administrative unit.

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Present Runway Suco Bebonuk

Suco Madohi

Comoro River

Suco Comoro Sources: The Study Team Figure 2.33 Present Runway and Surrounding Sucos Population of Suco Madohi is 14,818 and Suco Bebonuk is 11,383, and number of persons per household is 6.19 and 6.14 respectively. This household size is smaller than that of Dom Aleixo and Dili Munici- pality to a certain extent. There is no ethnic minority and indigenous people in this area.

Table 2-19 Population 2015

Population Number of Person/ house- Area Total Male Female Households hold Suco Madohi 14,818 7,616 7,202 2,392 6.19 Suco Bebonuk 11,383 5,916 5,467 1,853 6.14

Dom Aleixo 130,095 67,646 62,449 20,579 6.32 Dili Municipality 277,279 143,677 133,602 42,485 6.53 Source: 2015 Timor-Leste Population and Housing Census Local Economy Fishery is the most important occupation in Aldeia Beto Tasi located in the north of the present runway. About one hundred of 240 households in the Aldeia are engaged in coastal fishery for which fishery license is not required. There is no fishermen’s organization in this area. Inhabitants are also engaged in vegetable cultivation and palm plantation to gain income in the Aldeia. In the south of the present runway, several Aldeias, namely Terra Santa, Anin Fuic and Loro Matan Beto Timur (from west to east), are located, where land is mainly used for houses and several small shops while cultivated land also exist on a small scale. JICA Airport Study Report mentions that a lot of people living around the airport (Suco Madohi) are not employed or have no occupation. They expect to be employed by terminal construction in the JICA Airport Project. Suco Bebonuk, east of the Comoro River, is more populated and urbanized Suco than Suco Madohi. Many inhabitants are employed or run small business. In the area along the main roads, commercial buildings and business facilities, such as shopping center, hotels, warehouses, and parking, are found. Adding to them, religious and social facilities, such as churches and schools, are located. In the Comoro River, one hundred or more people excavate sand and gravel from riverbed in the dry season, which is only income source of their households according to their answer.

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Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

Sources: The Study Team Figure 2.34 Fishing Boat at Beto Tasi (left), Residential Area of Lolo Matan – Suco Madohi (center), Sand/Gravel Excavation on the Riverbed (right) Local community Suco Madohi is newly developed area except Aldeia Beto Tasi, old fishery community, while Suco Be- bonuk has relatively long history. Beto Tasi is connected with the southern part of the runway by a road which is located just beside the eastern end of the runway and included in the airport area. Beto Tasi people will lose access road to the south if the runway is upgraded. It must be considered to keep their accessibility and protect their livelihood. Northern part of Suco Bebonuk has the same situation if east side extension option is selected. Cultural, Religious, Social Infrastructures and Facilities There is no cultural heritage in the supposed project area. However, sacred banyan tree and cemetery, several churches and a mosque are found inside or near to the runway extension area and river diversion area. It is needed to have close communication with people related to these facilities at F/S stage.

2.9.2 Social Safeguard Issues Physical Displacement The runway upgrading project, regardless of direction and length of extension, will cause involuntary resettlement due to runway widening and extension. The magnitude of impact depends on the direction of extension. First, the present runway is planned to widen its width to north and south in compliance with the international standard, which require a strip of land near to the current airport boundary. The number of affected people is supposed above 200, which exceeds the threshold of ADB safeguard cate- gories. Second, runway extension needs to acquire land both to the west side and east side and it causes involuntary resettlement in Suco Bebonuk and small part of Suco Madohi. Third, options of eastside and both sides extension need river diversion, which causes involuntary resettlement of hundreds of houses. Finally, parallel taxi way also requires resettlement of ten of houses at southern part of the present runway (south of the widened runway). There is no effective law on land acquisition and resettlement in Timor-Leste, and, according to the Director of Land, Properties and Cadastral Service, Ministry of Justice, it is not needed to compensate for land. However, it is not appropriate that project proponent acquire private land without compensation because it does not comply with ADB Safeguard Policy Statement. Also, land owners probably resist land expropriation by the authority if they are not paid. There is no effective law relating to compensation for buildings/houses, too, but Ministry of Public Works has a price list of compensation for houses and buildings by type (permanent, semi-permanent, temporary) and quality of building/house. Not all the land plots have structures/houses but at most 3,000 structure/houses exist in the supposed runway upgrading project area (Option A-2）. Economic Displacement Fishery and vegetable cultivation is main income sources in Aldeia Beto Tasi, the area north of the present runway, and, some households run small business on the both sides of the runway and supposed extension area. Also, not only small household business, but large-scale commercial businesses are

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Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

found in the east side extension area and in the river diversion area. Local Community Aldeia Beto Tasi in Suco Madohi, northern part of the present runway, is connected with southern part of the Suco by a road. It will lose this access road by the project regardless of extension length and direction. Similarly, Aldeias of northern part of Suco Bebonuk will partially lose access to the southern part if the runway is extended eastside. Cultural, Religious and Social Infrastructure A school, church, sacred banyan tree and cemetery are located in the Aldeia Beto Tasi. In the area of eastside extension in the Suco Bebonuk, supposed runway will affect schools, churches sacred banyan tree and cemetery. 2.10 Risk Register Aspect Following risks are identified as important issues based on the site observation in June and the 1st AHP workshop in July. Physical displacement One of the most critical risks of the Project is the magnitude of physical displacement or involuntary resettlement. Participants of the trial AHP workshop in July judged it as the most important criteria for selection of the preferred option of the runway upgrading.

Magnitude of physical displacement depends on the direction of the runway but number of people who will be affected by involuntary resettlement is not small for all options. Exact number of affected persons will be identified in the population census for the resettlement action plan (RAP) at the F/S stage, but it is preliminarily assessed through land observation on site and Google Earth image that the project will cause both physical and economic displacement. Both sides of the present runway are residential area and the project needs to acquire not a small number of land plots and structures/houses. Also, the runway is planned to extend towards the residential and commercial area in the east of Comoro River for east side options (Option A-2) and both sides option (Option A-3). Project proponent must carefully explain, consult and negotiate with affected people once the Timorese Government decides the project implementation. At the time of land acquisition, clear explanation and close communication as well as sincere negotiation must be needed.

Economic displacement Another critical risk is economic displacement of loss of income source and business facilities. Eco- nomic activities in the project area are fishery, agriculture, running kiosks, and commercial business

Small shops are found on the area both of runway widening and extension. They must be relocated. In the Aldeia Beto Tasi, north of the present runway, fishery activity is main income source. Extension seaward probably affects it by decreasing fishery area and change of ocean current. In the Suco Bebonuk, east of the Comoro River, there exist not only small shops but also business activities, shopping center, office, warehouses, and parking areas. The airport upgrading project will affect these economic infrastructure facilities and affect their business activities. As same as physical displacement, close communication and clear explanation as well as sincere negotiation and compensation must be needed at the acquisition of land and facilities.

Unity of communities Participants of the trial AHP workshop did not consider the impact of the project on the unity of communities as important criterion for selecting preferred option. However, the Study Team considers the loss of access and communication within a Suco and with other Sucos is one of the risks of the project and it must be precisely considered.

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Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

Widening the existing runway in the Suco Madohi has the risk to cut the access road linking north and south of the runway. East side extension site in Suco Bebonuk has similar risk of dividing existing communities. It may be needed to construct bypass in the affected area as mitigation means.

Cultural, religious and social infrastructure Though there are no cultural heritages in the concerned area and the participants of the AHP workshop did not regard this was important. However, the runway upgrading project will require resettlement of several religious facilities such as cemetery and churches and social facilities such as schools in the east side extension.

Environmental risks All options have environmental risk but with different issue. Extension to the west side (seaside) is anticipated to affect marine fauna, especially dugong and east side extension is anticipated to change hydrological conditions. Although the participants of AHP workshop put low point to the noise, noise disturbance will be examined as one of the critical environmental issue of airports.

Aircraft safety User’s satisfaction is one of the most important criteria. For the runway expansion project, aircraft safety shall be the satisfied with the airline companies. At landing and taking off, aircrafts must avoid hills and mountains. For Dili International airport, a hill exist towards the western direction of the airport and Christ Rey on the east and we regard they are possible obstacle for landing and taking off. Sub-criterion of aircraft operation ranked the top five important sub-criteria in the AHP stakeholder workshop (airline pilot was a member). The Study Team will continue to confirm the degree of this risk and aircraft safety.

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Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

Chapter 3 Options Analysis

Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

CHAPTER 3 OPTIONS ANALYSIS

3.1 General The options developed in the previous studies have been reviewed up to now. This chapter describes the circumstances of the possible options such as technical aspect, financial and economic aspects and environmental aspects including the consideration of the options from current situation as described in Chapter 2. 3.2 Option Considered 3.2.1 Airport Layout Plan The options described in Chapter 2 have been studied up to now. The runway length is the basic key factor for aircraft operations. The runway length must be considered for future aircraft operations which are selected in the future plan of airport operator and airport users. During the first field work in Dili, numerous organizations were contacted to collect information related to future operations such as ANATL as counterpart organization, line ministries, civil aviation interest partners, such as airlines at Dili Airport, development partners, and civil society groups. A summary of the collected information regarding aircraft operations, especially runway length, is provided below. - Babcock12: the current runway length is not enough for operation of Code-C jet aircrafts, such as A320 series and B737 series. - Zeesm13: They suggest that at least 2,500 m of runway length is required for the operation of Code- C jet aircrafts. - Citilink: Dili Airport will have runway length of 3,000 m and width of 60 m. Timor-Leste has a potential transit flight, vacation, and commercial flight for other countries. - Sriwijaya: runway extension is necessary for aircraft performance, especially for aircraft B737-800. So, it is suggested to have no more limitation for MTOW14. - ANATL issued the letter on 24 June 2019 regarding a future runway length of 3,000 m (see appendix). In the discussion with ANATL, a Chinese airline company has a plan to operate a direct flight to Dili in the near future due to increasing visits of Chinese to Timor-Leste. Also, airlines from Middle East countries plan to offer direct flights to Dili. The technical aspect of the runway length was studied to use aircraft characteristics of Boeing and Air- bus for current aircraft operations and future expected aircraft operations. Operation aircraft Currently, the Code-C aircrafts that operate in Timor-Leste are as shown below. As mentioned above, during the discussion with airlines, Code-C aircrafts in operation are still the main aircraft in other countries now. Table 3-1 Current Operation Aircraft (Code-C) Aircraft Manufacturer Type B737-800 Boeing B737-500 A320 Airbus A319 Source: The Study Team Future expected aircraft operations are considered in the discussion with ANATL and airlines. Also,

12 Airline mainly providing transporting services of Oil and Gas in Timor-Leste. 13 Airline in Timor-Leste operating helicopter flight between Dili and Pante Macassar, Oecusse. 14 MTOW: The maximum takeoff weight (MTOW) of an aircraft is the maximum weight at which the pilot is allowed to attempt to take off, due to structural or other limits.

3-1 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

according to the final report of the Preparatory Survey for the Project for Improvement of Presidente Nicolau Lobato International Airport by JICA (JICA Airport Study), the operation of Code-E aircrafts is expected as the maximum size of aircrafts in the aircraft demand forecast. Therefore, in this study, the following aircrafts are set as the target aircrafts since these are popularly operated in the world.

Table 3-2 Expected Future Operation Aircraft (Code-E) Aircraft Manufacturer Type B777-300ER Boeing B787-8 A350-900 Airbus A330-300 Source: The Study Team 1) Flight Range In the air traffic demand forecast in the JICA Airport Study, the future destinations of international flights considered are only to Denpasar (DPS), Singapore (SIN), and Darwin (DRW), which have been or are currently operating in Dili Airport. However, in this study, considering the possibility of long-range flights, the necessary runway length for each operating flight distance in 2000 NM, 3000 NM, 4000 NM, and 5000 NM is studied since the increase of passenger number from 4% to 7% of growth rate is expected in the demand forecast. Each flight range includes the following destinations: Table 3-3 Major Destination in Each Flight Range Flight Range Major Destination 2000 NM Singapore, Bangkok, Hong Kong, Brisbane 3000 NM Tokyo, Beijing, Sydney 4000 NM Delhi 5000 NM Dubai, Doha Source: The Study Team 2) Payload Condition In this study, two patterns, namely; Maximum Payload and Full Pax/No Cargo, are considered as payload conditions. For the Full Pax/No Cargo conditions, the weight of payloads in each aircraft is estimated as follows. Table 3-4 Estimation of Payload Weight in Full Pax/No Cargo Aircrafts MZFW OEW MSP Number Passenger Cargo OEW + Passen- (ton) (ton) (ton) of Seats Payload Payload ger Payload (Full (ton) (ton) Pax / No Cargo) (ton) B777- 237.7 167.8 69.9 370 33.3 36.6 201.1 300ER B787-8 161.0 117.7 43.3 242 21.8 21.5 139.5 B737-800 62.7 41.4 21.3 160 14.4 6.9 55.8 (Note 1) MZFW: Maximum Zero Fuel Weight, OEW: Operating Empty Weight, MSP: Maximum Structural Payload (Note 2) Passenger Payload = No. of Seats x 90 kg, Cargo Payload = MSP – Passenger Payload Source: The Study Team 3) Conditions of Dili Airport According to the Airport Design Manual issued by ICAO, a correction for the required standard runway length is needed based on the actual conditions in Dili Airport. According to AIP Timor-Leste, the basic conditions needed for the correction are as follows:

Table 3-5 Basic Conditions in Dili Airport Conditions Value

3-2 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

Reference Temperature 33.8 ℃ Reference Altitude 8 m (25 ft) Runway Slope 0.1% Source: The Study Team Therefore, the correction factor is calculated as follows:  Temperature Correction Factor 1 + (33.8 - 14.9) × 1% = 1.189  Altitude Correction Factor 1 + 7% × 8 / 300 = 1.002  Runway Slope Correction Factor 1 + 10% × 0.1% /1% = 1.010  Combined Correction Factor 1.189 × 1.002 × 1.010 = 1.203 4) Calculation of Required Runway Length As for the calculation of required runway length, required runway length for take-off is more critical than that for landing. Therefore, the only required runway length for take-off is calculated. Based on the above conditions and the runway length calculation charts which are issued by aircraft manufacturer, the required runway length for take-off in each condition is calculated. Sample calculation procedure with regards to the use of B777-300 type aircraft as shown in the figures below.

Take-off Weight Take-off Weight Take-off Weight 280 tons 298 tons 317 tons

OEW + Payload 201 tons

Take-off Weight Take-off Weight Take-off Weight 238 tons 253 tons 270 tons

Source: Aircraft manufacture characteristics Figure 3.1 Calculation of Take-off Weight (B777-300ER)

3-3 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

2,450 m

2,150 m

1,950 m Take-off Weight 1,800 m 317 tons

1,600 m Take-off Weight 1,450 m Take-off Weight 298 tons 253 tons

Take-off Weight Take-off Weight 238 tons 280 tons

Take-off Weight 270 tons Source: Aircraft manufacture characteristics Figure 3.2 Calculation of Required Runway Length for Take-off (B777-300ER) The summary of the required runway length result is shown in the following table. The required runway length for the flight range of 2,000NM with the current operating aircraft such as B737-800 is 2,200m under Full Pax/ No Cargo condition. For A320, it is necessary to have 2,400 m and 2,000m respectively for Max. Payload and Full Pax/No Cargo conditions. At 3,000 NM flight range using most produced aircraft such as B787 the necessary runway length required is 2,500 m under Max. Payload condition and 2,000 m under Full Pax/ No Cargo condition. At 4,000 NM flight range using same type B787, it is necessary to have 2,900 m and 2,200 m respectively for Max. Payload and Full Pax/No Cargo conditions. Table 3-6 Summary of Required Runway Length Flight Aircraft Runway Length Requirements Runway Length Requirements Range under Standard Condition under Dili Airport Condition (NM) Max. Payload Full Pax/No Cargo Max. Payload Full Pax/No Cargo 2,000 B777-300ER 1,950 m 1,450 m 2,350 m 1,750 m B787-8 1,900 m 1,550 m 2,300 m 1,900 m B737-800 2,350 m 1,800 m 2,850 m 2,200 m A350-900 2,000 m 1,800 m 2,400 m 2,200 m A330-300 ------A320 2,000 m 1,650 m 2,400 m 2,000 m A319 1,750 m 1,550 m 2,100 m 1,900 m 3,000 B777-300ER 2,150 m 1,600 m 2,600 m 1,950 m B787-8 2,050 m 1,650 m 2,500 m 2,000 m B737-800 --- 2,200 m --- 2,650 m A350-900 2,200 m 1,850 m 2,650 m 2,250 m A330-300 2,900 m 2,150 m 3,500 m 2,600 m A320 ------A319 --- 1,750 m --- 2,100 m 4,000 B777-300ER 2,450 m 1,800 m 2,950 m 2,200 m B787-8 2,400 m 1,800 m 2,900 m 2,200 m B737-800 ------A350-900 2,350 m 1,900 m 2,850 m 2,300 m A330-300 3,150 m 2,400 m 3,800 m 2,900 m A320 ------A319 ------Source: The Study Team

3-4 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

5) Calculation of Existing Runway Length Situation During the 1st field work in Dili, we got the information regarding weight limitation of aircraft operation currently from stakeholders. Therefore, we evaluated existing runway length situation using the aircraft manufacture chart for operating aircraft such as B737-800 and A320. The calculation result is shown in the table below. Denpasar flight situation can allow full passenger payload (14.4 ton) and limited cargo payload (1.2 ton) by B737-800. Singapore flight situation was able to allow full passenger payload (13.5 ton) and limited cargo payload (4.5 ton) by A320. Table 3-7 Summary of Required Weight Limitation Air- Range OEW+ Full Pax Pax. Full Cargo Cargo Number Remarks crafts (NM) Payload Payload Payload Payload Payload of Seats (ton) (ton) (ton) (ton) (ton) B737- 800 500 58 14.4 14.4 6.9 2.2 160 616 57 14.4 14.4 6.9 1.2 160 Denpasar 1,000 55 14.4 13.6 6.9 0 151 1,500 52 14.4 10.6 6.9 0 118 2,000 50 14.4 8.6 6.9 0 96 A320 500 19 13.5 13.5 6.4 5.5 150 616 18 13.5 13.5 6.4 4.5 150 Singapore 1,000 16 13.5 13.5 6.4 2.5 150 1,500 14 13.5 13.5 6.4 0.5 150 2,000 11 13.5 11 6.4 0 122 Source: The Study Team Available Options Based on the review of previous and ongoing studies, the surrounding environmental and social situation, and the operational aircraft evaluation, the three options below were prepared. 1) Option A-1/West Side, 2,500 m Expansion Option A-1 runway length has a total of 2,500 m expansion toward the west (sea) side with full length parallel taxiway. It adds 650 m runway and preparation of RESA for both sides. However, there is some land space of around 50 m for runway extension in the standard RESA on the east side. There- fore, west side extension is 600 m.

Rua de Bebonuk road

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.3 Option A-1/West Side, 2,500 m Expansion

3-5 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

2) Option A-2/ East Side, 2,500 m Expansion The runway length of Option A-2 has a total of 2,500 m expansion toward the east (river) side. It adds 650 m runway and preparation of standard RESA for both sides. The blue area in Figure 3.4 shows the flow of the diversion river and the green line is the Rua de Bebonuk road which has a function as an access road from the coastal area. The road will be disconnected by the diversion river in this option.

Diversion River Rua de Bebonuk road

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.4 Option A-2/East Side, 2,500 m Expansion 3) Option A-3/Both Sides, 2,500 m Expansion The runway length of Option A-3 has a total of 2,500 m expansion toward both east (river) and west (sea) sides. It adds 650 m runway and preparation of standard RESA on both sides. The west side extension is 195 m, and the east side extension is 455 m. The extension length of the runway to east side is decided from the view point of not disconnecting the Rua de Bebonuk road which is shown as green line in Figure 3.5 and is located in the east area of the airport.

Diversion River Rua de Bebonuk road

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.5 Option A-3/Both Sides, 2,500 m Expansion

3-6 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

4) Option 2100/ IFC Plan Both Sides, 2,500 m Expansion This option is provided by IFC airport master plan team which GoTL inter-ministerial working group accepted as the priority airport development layout plan. The runway length of Option 2100 has a total of 2,100 m expansion toward both east and west sides. It adds 250 m for existing runway and preparation of standard RESA on both sides. The west side extension is 75 m and the east side extension is 175 m. The extension length of the runway to west side is necessary for land reclamation of sea and to east side is no interference for the riverside. The parallel taxiway is around 1,000 m long of west side of the airport.

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.6 Option 2100/ Both Sides, 2,100 m Expansion

3-7 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

3.3 Technical Complexity (Cost Estimates, Construction Plan) 3.3.1 West Side Extension Outline The west side extension is mainly planned on offshore area. The water depth of this area will be around -5m to -35m as shown in the following figure. Therefore, the marine structures and marine construction works shall be considered for the option of the runway extension.

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.7 Planning Area and Bathymetric Contour of West Side Extension

The following two alternatives have been considered for the west side extension.

- Reclamation with Revetment (Sea Wall) - Jetty Structure with Steel Pipe Pile (Jacket Type) Methods and Features The method and feature of the reclamation method and the jetty structure are shown as follows. 1) Reclamation with Revetment The reclamation method is generally applied for the offshore land development works. The rubble mound revetment with concrete block (tetrapod) is recommended. The crest height of revetment shall be +7.20 (from M.S.L) to prevent overtopping to airport land area. A floating crane is required to be mobilized at the site for installation of concrete block.

The cross sections of revetment and reclamation area are shown in Figure 3.8, Figure 3.9 and Figure 3.10.

3-8 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.8 Cross Section of Revetment (Sea Wall : Shallow Sea Area)

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.9 Cross Section of Revetment (Sea Wall : Deep Sea Area)

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.10 Cross Section of Reclamation Area

2) Jetty Structure The jacket type jetty for the runway structure in Tokyo International Airport was completed in 2010 as the world's first offshore jetty runway. Recently this type has been widely applied in port facilities due to the following reasons.

- Reduced onsite construction work period - High earthquake resistance

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Source: NIPPON STEEL Chemical & Material homepage Figure 3.11 D-Runway in Tokyo International Airport Jackets are manufactured at the plant and installed on site. As a result, the onsite construction work period and work volume can be reduced due to rapid installation. Though the large construction equipment such as a large floating crane and a pile driver barge are required to mobilized at the site from Indonesia or Singapore.

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.12 Jacket Installation of Port Facility in Myanmar

The size of one unit of the jacket structure is planned as 30m width and 40m length as shown in Figure 3.13.

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Source: The Study Team Figure 3.13 Plan of Jacket Structure (One Unit) The cross sections of the jetty structure area are shown in Figure 3.14 and Figure 3.15.

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.14 Cross Section of Jetty Structure (Jacket Type : Shallow Sea Area)

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.15 Cross Section of Jetty Structure (Jacket Type : Deep Sea Area) Construction cost In case of 2,500m extension to west side (Option A-1), the construction cost of the reclamation method

3-11 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

and the jetty structure are shown in the following table. Table 3-8 Construction Cost of Reclamation Unit Price Total Amount Description Q'ty Unit (USD) (USD) 1. Preparatory Works (incl. Mobilization) 1,500,000 2. Demolition of Existing Housing 160,000 m2 12 1,920,000 Revetment 2,220 m 65,480 145,365,600 3. Reclamation Reclamation (off shore) 4,805,700 m3 36 173,005,200 Reclamation (on shore) 359,600 m3 24 8,630,400 Extension of Runway 36,000 m2 120 4,320,000 Widening of Runway 27,750 m2 120 3,330,000 4. Upgrading of Parallel Taxiway and Connection Taxi- 74,000 m2 120 8,880,000 Runway way Land Preparation for Runway and Taxi- 485,000 m2 11 5,238,000 way Strip Total 352,190,000 Source: The Study Team Table 3-9 Construction Cost of Jetty Structure Unit Price Total Amount Description Q'ty Unit (USD) (USD) 1. Preparatory Works (incl. Mobilization) 12,100,000 2. Demolition of Existing Housing 160,000 m2 12 1,920,000 Steel Pile 3,570 Nos 74,200 264,894,000 Fabrication of Jacket 238 Unit 1,460,000 347,480,000 3. Jacket Works Installation of Jacket 238 Unit 540,000 128,520,000 Placing of Concrete 238 Unit 240,000 57,120,000 Installation of Slab Concrete Block 238 Unit 420,000 99,960,000 Extension of Runway 36,000 m2 120 4,320,000 Widening of Runway 27,750 m2 120 3,330,000 4. Upgrading of Parallel Taxiway and Connection Taxiway 74,000 m2 120 8,880,000 Runway Land Preparation for Runway and Taxiway m2 485,000 11 5,238,000 Strip Total 933,760,000

Source: The Study Team Construction plan and schedule In case of 2,500m extension to west side, the construction schedule of Reclamation and Jetty structure are shown in the following table. Table 3-10 Construction Schedule of Reclamation Description Qty Unit 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 5th Year 1. Mobilization & Demobilization 1.0 L.S. 2. Demolition of Existing Housing 160,000 m2 3. Revetment Works 3-1 Stone Works 1,301,000 m3 3-2 Concrete Block Works 25,190 Nos 3-3 L-shape Wall Works 2,220 m 4. Reclamation Works 4-1 Reclamation (Sand Filling) 5,165,300 m3 4-2 Land Leveling 251,000 m2 5. Upgrading of Runway 5-1 Extension of Runway 36,000 m2 5-2 Widening of Runway 27,750 m2 5-3 Parallel Taxiway and Connection Taxiway 74,000 m2 5-4 Land Preparation for Runway and Taxiway Strip 485,000 m2 Source: The Study Team

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Table 3-11 Construction Schedule of Jetty Structure Description Qty Unit 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 5th Year 6th Year 7th Year 8th Year 1. Mobilization & Demobilization 1.0 L.S. 2. Demolition of Existing Housing 160,000 m2 3. Material Transportation 4. Jacket Works 4-1 Steel Pile Driving 3,570 Nos 4-2 Fablication of Jacket 238 Unit 4-3 Installation of Jacket 238 Unit 4-4 Placing of Concrete 238 Unit 4-5 Installation of Slab Concrete Block 238 Unit 5. Upgrading of Runway 5-1 Extension of Runway 36,000 m2 5-2 Widening of Runway 27,750 m2 5-3 Parallel Taxiway and Connection Taxiway 74,000 m2 5-3 Land Preparation for Runway and Taxiway Strip 485,000 m2 Source: The Study Team Recommendation and suggestions Comparing the reclamation method with the jetty structure, the reclamation method is recommended in the point of view of construction cost and schedule. 3.3.2 East Side Extension Outline In case of river side runway extension, it is required to consider the existing river to be crossed by the extended runway. One solution is to construct the bridge for the runway to cross the river. The other solution is to construct the diversion river instead of the existing river. In this section, the comparison analysis for these solutions is conducted to apply for the river side runway extension option, referring Option A-2/ East side, 2,500 m Expansion as a model case.

In Case of Bridge Construction (Solution 1) 1) Bridge Structure Plan The technical characteristics of Comoro River has been studied in“Preparatory Survey Report on the Project for the Construction of Upriver Comoro Bridge in the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste” (hereinafter“Upriver Comoro Bridge Study”) published by JICA in 2014. Therefore, the result of Upriver Comoro Bridge Study is referred for the bridge structure study.

There is another possible option to construct the bridge by box culvert structure. However, it is difficult to construct a required structure which meets proper width that doesn’t interrupt existing water flow and draining. Therefore, the box culvert structure is not adopted in this study.

a) Design Discharge Volume of Comoro River Based on the result of Upriver Comoro Bridge Study, the design discharge volume of Comoro River is set at 2,500 m3/s with 50 years of return period.

Table 3-12 Discharge Volume of Comoro River

Return Period Discharge Specific Discharge (m3/s) (m3/s/km2) 2-year 1,200(1,181) 5.7 5-year 1,600(1,585) 7.7 10-year 1,900(1,854) 9 30-year 2,300(2,263) 10.9 50-year 2,500(2,449) 11.8 100-year 2,700(2,698) 13 Source: Upriver Comoro Bridge Study

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b) River Bed Level and Water Level According to the result of Upriver Comoro Bridge Study, the riverbed level, the water level (WL), high water level (HWL), design dike level are as follows:

 Riverbed Level ‐ Current Lowest River Bed Level : EL+6.15 m ‐ Design Riverbed Level : EL+5.865 m  WL : EL+8.793 m  HWL : EL+8.865 m  Design Dike Level : EL+10.065 m

Table 3-13 Discharge Volume of Comoro River Lowest Right Calculated Design Design Design Station Distance Left Bank riverbed Bank WL Dike HWL Riverbed (m) (EL.m) (EL.m) (EL.m) (EL.m) (EL.m) (EL.m) (EL.m) 0 2.953 4.225 3.025 0.025 Sec 01 100 0.76 4.00 3.683 4.955 3.755 0.755 Sec 02 800 6.15 9.75 9.47 8.793 10.065 8.865 5.865 Sec 03 1,500 11.78 14.84 15.83 13.902 15.174 13.974 10.974 Sec 04 1,600 9.98 16.27 14.640 15.904 14.704 11.704 Sec 05 1,620 12.6 16.26 16.23 14.805 16.090 14.890 11.877 Sec 06 1,800 14.96 18.98 19.27 16.290 17.756 16.556 13.436 0+000 2,100 15.85 20.21 19.19 19.160 20.534 19.334 16.034 0+100 2,200 16.49 21.11 19.79 20.240 21.460 20.260 0+200 2,300 17.13 21.96 20.42 21.130 22.386 21.186 0+300 2,400 18.37 23.51 22.45 22.370 23.590 22.390 0+400 2,500 18.81 24.66 24.73 23.320 24.795 23.595 0+500 2,600 19.81 25.91 25.96 23.900 26.000 24.800 0+600 2,700 19.98 26.66 27.84 24.870 27.205 26.005 0+700 2,800 21.21 27.68 28.45 26.080 28.410 27.210 0+800 2,900 22.29 28.74 30.24 26.680 29.614 28.414 0+900 3,000 23.13 30.45 31.72 28.180 30.819 29.619 0+950 3,050 23.53 31.09 32.12 28.590 31.422 30.222 Sec 10 3,100 25.53 29.68 34.95 30.000 32.024 30.824 Sec 11 3,620 30.45 39.95 39.40 36.460 38.289 37.089 Source: Upriver Comoro Bridge Study c) Longitudinal Slope of Comoro River According to the result of Upriver Comoro Bridge Study, the longitudinal slope of Comoro river around the airport is 1/137 as shown in Table 3-14.

Table 3-14 g Longitudinal Riverbed p Slope Stretch Riverbed slope 0.00km ～ .km 1/137 1.60km ～ .km 1/108 2.30km ～ .km 1/83 Source: Upriver Comoro Bridge Study d) Design River Channel According to the result of Upriver Comoro Bridge Study, for prevention of flood, Comoro river is required to upgrade in the future. In order to have the capacity of 2500 m3/s of design discharge volume, it is required to construct dike and widen river channel from 0.0 km to 2.4 km of the longitudinal distance from the river mouth The required width and widening are shown in Table 3-15.

3-14 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

Table 3-15 Design River Widening Widening(m) Station Design river wide Left side Right side (m) .km～.ｋｍ 201.2m 50m 30m .ｋｍ .ｋｍ～.km .m～ 0m 0m (2.1km) 159.05m 2.2km 163.3m 30m 0m

2.3km 182.9m 20m 0m

2.4km 199.1m(173.7m) 40m 0m

2.5km 209.1m 0m 0m

2.6km 208.5m 0m 0m

Source: Upriver Comoro Bridge Study

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.16 Design of River Widening Near Airport e) Design of River Channel at Runway Extension Point Based on the above result, the design of river channel and water level for the study of the runway bridge structure are shown in Table 3-16 and Figure 3.17.

Table 3-16 Design River Characteristics for Bridge Structure Study Widening(m) Water Level(m) Design Calculated Design Design Design Station river wide Left side Right side WL Dike HWL Riverbed (m) (EL.m) (EL.m) (EL.m) (EL.m)

Runway extending 201.2m 50m 30m 8.793 10.065 8.865 5.865 .ｋｍ

Source: The Study Team

3-15 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.17 Design of River Widening for Bridge Structure Study f) Bridge Type The bridge structure of taxiway connection for D Runway in Haneda International Airport is referred for the bridge structure in this study. The taxiway connection bridge for D Runway in Haneda Interna- tional Airport is constructed between airport land and D runway constructed offshore. The superstructure of the taxiway connection bridge is four span continuous girders. The substructure is jacket structure supported by steel pipe piles. The sections of the connection taxiway bridge for D Runway in Haneda International Airport are shown in Figure 3.18 and Figure 3.19.

<単純桁>

ベ区間

AP.+11.646 AP.+12.174 AP.+13.425 AP.+12.971 ( AP.+13.258) 伸縮装置一方向 AP.+12.645 ( AP.+12.911) AP.+13.386 伸縮装置 MF ( AP.+12.430) F FFM( AP.+13.242) F 1.2%

AP+6.000 AP+6.000

L.W.L (A.P±0.000)

S1 P1 P2 P3 P4 S2 現空港側新滑走路島側

Source: Technical Record of D Runway (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan) Figure 3.18 Longitudinal Section of Connection Taxiway

3-16 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

ショー誘導路ショースフト舗装 t=200mm

合成床版 t=320mm 合成床版 t=370mm ハン高 100mm 合成床版 t=320mm

1.0% 1.0%

L.W.L

Source: Technical Record of D Runway (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan) Figure 3.19 Cross Section of Connection Taxiway g) Bridge Structure Based on the structure of taxiway connection for D Runway in Haneda International Airport, the planning conditions are shown in this section.

(i) Span Length Based on the “Government Ordinance for Structural Standard for River Administration Facilities” and design discharge volume, the standard span length is calculated as follows:

L = 20 + 0.005 x Q = 20 + 0.005 x 2500 = 32.5 (m)

Where; L = Standard Span Length, Q = Design Discharge Volume.

The width of the river in design river channel is 201.2 m. For the length of the bridge, additional 5 m is added for both side of river banks as allowance. Therefore, total bridge length is 201.2 m + 5 m + 5 m = 211.2 m. Considering installation of 4 piers, the proposed span length is 42.2 m as shown in Figure 3.20. This span length is longer than standard span length (32.5 m).

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.20 Proposed Span Length (ii) Pier

3-17 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

The shape of piers is oval shape not to disturb the river flow. According to Government Ordinance for Structural Standard for River Administration Facilities, impediment ratio of river has to be less than 7.0 %. Based on the calculation of impediment ratio of river as shown in Table 3-17, the width of the piers is set at 3.5 m.

Table 3-17 Calculation of Impediment Ratio of River Impediment The width ratio Remark of the pier ≦. 2.5 4.7% 〇 3.0 5.7% 〇 3.5 6.6% 〇 4.0 7.6% × 4 Piers Number of piers 211.2m River width Source: The Study Team (iii) Pile

There are two types of piles being considered, namely; driving pile and cast-in-place pile. In order to mitigate the noise and vibration impact to surrounding area during the construction, the cast-in-place pile by all casing method is adopted. The diameter of piles is 1.2 m, and the length of piles is 15 m.

The number and arrangement of pile for a pier are considered as shown in Figure 3.21 based on the connection taxiway for D Runway in Haneda International Airport.

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.21 Arrangement of Piles for a Pier (iv) Superstructure

Based on the structure of taxiway connection for D Runway in Haneda International Airport, the super structure of the runway bridge is proposed as follow:

 Composite Floor Slab: 0.82m of thickness  Composite Girder Structure: 2.50 m of thickness  Bearing: 0.7 m of thickness

（omposite Floor Slab

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.22 Proposed Superstructure

3-18 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

(v) Proposed Bridge Structure Based on the above studies, the proposed bridge structure is shown in Figure 3.23.

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.23 Proposed Bridge Structure 2) Earth Work Plan For the consideration of earth work volume, the planned longitudinal profile of the runway is studied as shown in Figure 3.24. The longitudinal slope of the planned runway profile are considered based on the required bridge elevation and the requirement of runway longitudinal slope and sight distance provided by ICAO Annex14.

Extended Overrun Existing Runway Part Runway Part + RESA 16 Bridge 14 LD+2650 12 10 8 6 4 LD+2350 Elevation(m) 2 LD+2100 0 LD+1850 LD+2500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Longitudinal Distance (LD) (m) Source: The Study Team Figure 3.24 Planned Runway Profile (Option A-2, Solution 1) Based on the above runway profile plan, the planned and existing cross section at each point are studied as shown in Figure 3.25.

3-19 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

LD +1850 Parallel TWY LD +2100 Parallel TWY LD +2350 C/L C/L 13 14 14 Parallel TWY C/L 12 13 13 RWY 12 12 11 RWY C/L C/L 11 11 10 RWY 10 10 C/L 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 -10 40 90 140 190 240 290 340 390 4 4 -10 40 90 140 190 240 290 340 390 -10 40 90 140 190 240 290 340 390 LD +2500 LD +2650 Parallel TWY 13 C/L 12.0 Planned Elevation 12 11.0 11 10.0 Existing Elevation 10 RWY 9 C/L 9.0 8 8.0 Traverse Axis: Cross Sectional Distance 7 7.0 6 (m) 5 6.0 Vertical Axis: Elevation (m) 4 5.0 3 4.0 * Filling volume in bridge part is de- -10 40 90 140 190 240 290 340 390 -10 40 90 140 190 240 290 340 390 ducted Source: The Study Team Figure 3.25 Planned Cross-Sectional Elevation for Extended Runway Part (Option A-2, Solu- tion 1) Based on the above consideration, the difference calculus can be applied for the calculation of earthwork volume. The estimated earthwork volume is calculated as filling: 934,000 m3 and Cutting: 0 m3 3) Cost for Solution 1 The outline cost estimation of the bridge structure is shown in Table 3-18.

Table 3-18 Outline Cost Estimation of Bridge Structure Item Cost (USD) Description Unit Quantity No. Unit Rate Amount

1A General Requirement 1A02 Transportation Cost of Structural Materials L.S 1 11,500,000 11,500,000 1A04 Temporary Facilities , etc. L.S 1 9,500,000 9,500,000 Total of 1A 21,000,000

2B Bridge 2B01 Superstructure (t = 4.02 m) m2 83,556 3,400 284,090,400 2B02 Pier (W 2m x L 63 m, oval shape) Nos 24 1,191,000 28,584,000 2B03 Abutment Nos 12 3,573,000 42,876,000 2B04 Pile (dia: 1.2 m, Length: 8.5 ~ 15 m) for Piers Nos 432 45,000 19,440,000 2B04 Pile (dia: 1.2 m, Length: 8.5 ~ 15 m) for Abutments Nos 648 45,000 29,160,000 Total of 2B 404,150,400

Total of Direct Cost ' 425,150,400

In-direct Cost (20%) L.S 85,030,080

GRAND TOTAL ' 510,180,480

Source: The Study Team

3-20 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

The cost for Option A-2 by Solution 1 is calculated as follows:

Table 3-19 Cost for Option A-2 by Solution 1 Total Unit Price Description Q'ty Unit Amount (USD) (USD) 1. Preparatory Works (incl. Mobilization) 1,500,000 2. Runway Bridge Structure 1 set 510,180,480 510,180,480 Revetment 850 m 25,600 21,760,000 3. Reclamation Reclamation (off shore) 375,000 m3 36 13,500,000 Reclamation (on shore) 150,000 m3 24 3,600,000 Filling 934,000 m3 10 9,526,800 Excavation 0 m3 7 0 Extension of Runway 36,000 m2 120 4,320,000 4. Upgrading Widening of Runway 27,750 m2 120 3,330,000 of Runway Parallel Taxiway and Connection Taxiway 74,000 m2 120 8,880,000 Land Preparation for Runway and Taxiway 485,000 m2 11 5,238,000 Strip Total 581,835,280 Source: The Study Team

4) Technical Features of Solution 1 Followings are the main possible technical disadvantages:

 There are following technical risks from the point of view of disaster prevention and maintenance due to construction of the bridge crossing such large and steep Comoro river.

 Risks of overflowing onto the runway due to decreasing cross-sectional area of the river caused by sand deposit under the bridge

 Risks of overflowing onto the runway due to driftwoods or floating wreckages.

 Risks of structural damage and associated effect to the runway due to the action of river changing water flow during the flood

 The planned runway height on the bridge will be high. In order to secure a longitudinal slope and its slope changes that satisfies ICAO Annex 14, it is necessary to raise the runway pavement surface up to over 2m within the range of 200 to 300m from the threshold of the R/W26 side. There is a possibility to stop the airport operation to carry out this construction and would be a large problem especially in Timo-Leste since there is no other alternative airports within the country.

 The project cost will be high due to construction of a large-scale bridge (approximately 211m long and 320m wide) corresponding to the runway and runway strip.

In Case of Diversion River (Solution 2) 1) Diversion River Plan According to Upriver Comoro Bridge Study, the current Comoro River is required to improve the discharge capacity by increasing cross-sectional area of the river. Based on the river channel design for downstream part of Comoro River mentioned in Upriver Comoro Bridge Study, the planned cross section of the diversion river is considered as shown in Figure 3.26.

3-21 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

200 m

1.2 m HWL

3.0 m

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.26 Planned Cross Sectional of Diversion River The route of the diversion river is considered as shown in Figure 3.27 to avoid the airport development area for runway extension.

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.27 Diversion River Route Plan (Option A-2)

2) Earth Work Plan for Diversion River For the consideration of earth work volume, the planned longitudinal profile of the runway is studied as shown in Figure 3.28. The longitudinal slope of the planned runway profile are considered based on the dike elevation at the threshold of development area.

16 14 LD+750 12 LD+700 10 LD+250 LD+1550 8 LD+0 6 LD+1000 LD+1250 4 Elevation(m) 2 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Longitudinal Distance (LD) from River Mouth (m) Existing Elevation Planned Elevation

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.28 Planned Longitudinal Profile of Diversion River (Option A-2, Solution 2)

Based on the above diversion river longitudinal profile plan, the planned and existing cross section in each point are studied as shown in Figure 3.29.

3-22 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

LD +0 LD +250 LD +500 8 10 12 7 9 11 6 8 10 5 7 9 4 6 8 3 5 7 2 4 6 1 3 5 0 2 4 -5 45 95 145 195 -5 45 95 145 195 -5 45 95 145 195 LD +750 LD +1000 LD +1250 14 16 18

13 15 17

12 14 16

11 13 15

10 12 14

9 11 13

8 10 12

7 9 11

6 8 10 -5 45 95 145 195 -5 45 95 145 195 -5 45 95 145 195 LD +1550 20 Planned Elevation 19 18 Existing Elevation 17 16 Traverse Axis: Cross Sectional Distance (m) 15

14 Vertical Axis: Elevation (m)

12 -5 45 95 145 195 Source: The Study Team Figure 3.29 Planned Cross Section for Diversion River (Option A-2, Solution 2) Based on the above consideration, the difference calculus can be applied for the calculation of earthwork volume. The estimated earthwork volume for the diversion river is calculated as follows:  Filling Volume : 32,000 m3  Cutting Volume: 684,000 m3 3) Earth Work Plan for Runway Extension For the consideration of earth work volume, the planned longitudinal profile of the runway is studied as shown in Figure 3.30.

Extended Overrun Existing Runway Part Runway Part + RESA 12 10 LD+2350

(m) 8 6 LD+1850 4 LD+2500 Elevation 2 LD+2100 0 LD+2650 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Longitudinal Distance (LD) (m) Existing Elevation Planned Elevation Source: The Study Team Figure 3.30 Planned Longitudinal Profile of Runway (Option A-2, Solution 2) Based on the above diversion river longitudinal profile plan, the planned and existing cross section in each point are studied as shown in Figure 3.31.

3-23 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

LD +1850 LD +2100 LD +2350 RWY 12 10 Parallel TWY 10 C/L C/L 11 9 9 10 8 8 9 7 7 6 8 RWY Parallel TWY 6 Parallel TWY 7 C/L C/L 5 5 RWY C/L C/L 6 4 4 5 3 3 2 4 2 -10 40 90 140 190 240 290 340 390 -10 40 90 140 190 240 290 340 390 -10 40 90 140 190 240 290 340 390 LD +2500 LD +2650 10 10.0 9 9.0 Planned Elevation RWY 8 C/L 8.0 RWY Existing Elevation 7 7.0 C/L 6 6.0 5 Traverse Axis: Cross Sectional Distance 5.0 4 Parallel TWY C/L 4.0 (m) 3 3.0 Vertical Axis: Elevation (m) 2 2.0 -10 40 90 140 190 240 290 340 390 -10 40 90 140 190 240 290 340 390 Source: The Study Team Figure 3.31 Planned Cross Section for Runway Extension (Option A-2, Solution 2) Based on the above consideration, the difference calculus can be applied for the calculation of earthwork volume. The estimated earthwork volume is calculated as follows:

 Filing Volume : 287,000 m3  Cutting Volume: 106,000 m3 4) Cost for Solution 2 The cost for Option A-2 by Solution 1 is calculated as follows: Table 3-20 Cost for Option A-2 by Solution 2 Unit Price Total Amount Description Q'ty Unit (USD) (USD) 1. Preparatory Works (incl. Mobilization) 800,000 2. Demolition of Existing Housing 592,000 m2 12 7,104,000 River Dike 3,550 m 1,000 3,550,000 Filling 32,000 m3 10 326,400 3. River Diversion Excavation 684,000 m3 7 4,924,800 Filling on Existing River 471,000 m3 10 4,804,200 Revetment 850 m 25,600 21,760,000 4. Reclamation Reclamation (off shore) 375,000 m3 36 13,500,000 Reclamation (on shore) 150,000 m3 24 3,600,000 Filling 287,000 m3 10 2,927,400 Excavation 106,000 m3 7 763,200 Extension of Runway 36,000 m2 120 4,320,000 5. Upgrading of Widening of Runway 27,750 m2 120 3,330,000 Runway Parallel Taxiway and Connection Taxi- m2 74,000 120 8,880,000 way Land Preparation for Runway and Taxi- m2 485,000 11 5,238,000 way Strip Total 85,830,000 Source: The Study Team 5) Technical Features of Solution 2 The risk of affect to the airport facilities by flooding of the river is much mitigated, comparing with Solution 1. Comparison between Solution 1 and Solution 2 Solution 1 has a lot of technical problems from the point of view of construction, operation and maintenance. Furthermore, the construction cost of Solution 1 is also much bigger than Solution 2, and Solution 1 is not realistic. Therefore, in case of west side runway extension, the development plan is set based on Solution 2 in this Study.

3-24 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

3.3.3 Technical Feature of Options West side, 2,500 m Expansion (Option A-1) 1) Construction Cost The construction cost for the option is summarized as shown in Table 3-21.

The unit rate of each construction items are estimated based on the past construction price in Timor- Leste and the other countries such as Indonesia, etc.

Table 3-21 Construction Cost (Option A-1) Unit Price Total Amount Description Q'ty Unit (USD) (USD) 1. Preparatory Works (incl. Mobilization) 1,500,000 2. Demolition of Existing Housing 160,000 m2 12 1,920,000 Revetment 2,220 m 65,480 145,365,600 3. Reclamation Reclamation (off shore) 4,805,700 m3 36 173,005,200 Reclamation (on shore) 359,600 m3 24 8,630,400 Extension of Runway 36,000 m2 120 4,320,000 Widening of Runway 27,750 m2 120 3,330,000 4. Upgrading of Parallel Taxiway and Connection Taxi- 74,000 m2 120 8,880,000 Runway way Land Preparation for Runway and Taxi- 485,000 m2 11 5,238,000 way Strip Total 352,190,000 Source: The Study Team

2) Construction Schedule The construction schedule is shown in Table 3-22.

Table 3-22 Construction Schedule (Option A-1) Description Qty Unit 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 5th Year 1. Mobilization & Demobilization 1.0 L.S. 2. Demolition of Existing Housing 160,000 m2 3. Revetment Works 3-1 Stone Works 1,301,000 m3 3-2 Concrete Block Works 25,190 Nos 3-3 L-shape Wall Works 2,220 m 4. Reclamation Works 4-1 Reclamation (Sand Filling) 5,165,300 m3 4-2 Land Leveling 251,000 m2 5. Upgrading of Runway 5-1 Extension of Runway 36,000 m2 5-2 Widening of Runway 27,750 m2 5-3 Parallel Taxiway and Connection Taxiway 74,000 m2 5-4 Land Preparation for Runway and Taxiway Strip 485,000 m2 Source: The Study Team

3) Recommendation and Suggestions It is required to construct the revetment on the deep-sea area (over -30m) by the advanced marine technologies. The maintenance works such as monitoring and repair of the revetment structures also require the advanced technologies.

The above technical studies are still preliminary level. The detail technical study in future stage is required in order to get higher accuracy information.

3-25 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

East side, 2,500 m Expansion (Option A-2) 1) Construction Cost The construction cost for the option is summarized as shown in Table 3-23.

The unit rate of each construction items are estimated based on the past construction price in Timor- Leste and the other countries such as Indonesia, etc.

Table 3-23 Construction Cost (Option A-2) Unit Price Total Amount Description Q'ty Unit (USD) (USD) 1. Preparatory Works (incl. Mobilization) 800,000 2. Demolition of Existing Housing 592,000 m2 12 7,104,000 River Dike 3,550 m 1,000 3,550,000 Filling 32,000 m3 10 326,400 3. River Diversion Excavation 684,000 m3 7 4,924,800 Filling on Existing River 471,000 m3 10 4,804,200 Revetment 850 m 25,600 21,760,000 4. Reclamation Reclamation (off shore) 375,000 m3 36 13,500,000 Reclamation (on shore) 150,000 m3 24 3,600,000 Filling 287,000 m3 10 2,927,400 Excavation 106,000 m3 7 763,200 Extension of Runway 36,000 m2 120 4,320,000 5. Upgrading of Widening of Runway 27,750 m2 120 3,330,000 Runway Parallel Taxiway and Connection Taxi- 74,000 m2 120 8,880,000 way Land Preparation for Runway and Taxi- 485,000 m2 11 5,238,000 way Strip Total 85,830,000 Source: The Study Team 2) Construction Schedule The construction schedule is shown Table 3-24.

Table 3-24 Construction Schedule (Option A-2) Description Qty Unit 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 5th Year 1. Mobilization & Demobilization 1.0 L.S. 2. Demolition of Existing Houseing 592,000 m2 3. River Diversion (Earth Works) 3-1 Excavation 684,000 m3 3-2 Filling 32,000 m3 3-3 Filling on Existing River 471,000 m3 4. River Dike for New River 4-1 River Dike (Right Bank) 1,600 m 4-2 River Dike (Left Bank) 1,650 m 4-3 Temporary Dike (Left Bank) 300 m 5. Reclamation & Revetment 5-1 Revetment 850 m 5-2 Reclamation 525,000 m3 6. Upgrading of Runway 6-1 Excavation 106,000 m3 6-2 Filling 287,000 m3 6-3 Extension of Runway 36,000 m2 6-4 Widening of Runway 27,750 m2 6-5 Parallel Taxiway and Connection Taxiway 74,000 m2 6-6 Land Preparation for Runway and Taxiway Strip 485,000 m2 Source: The Study Team

3-26 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

As for the construction of the diversion river, after excavation of water way part for the diversion river, the existing river will be diverted to the new water way using the temporary dike. After diversion, excavated soil of the diversion river can be placed on the existing river area, and the earthwork can be per- formed efficiently. After finishing the excavation of water way, rest of earthwork will be proceeded. As soon as the earthwork is completed, the revetment works will be proceeded.

The excavated material from the river is used for the filling works for the runway extension. The surplus excavated material is filled in the existing river after diversion.

3) Recommendation and Suggestions GoTL have a plan for the upgrading project of Comoro river including widening works of the river around the airport. GoTL have to pay attention that this project around the airport area should be can- celled if construction of the diversion river is to be decided.

The above technical studies are still in preliminary level. The detail technical study in future stage is required in order to get higher accuracy information.

Both side, 2,500 m Expansion (Option A-3) 1) Technical Method a) Diversion River Plan The planned cross section of the diversion river is considered as shown in Figure 3.26 in the same logic as East side, 2,500 m Expansion.

The route of the diversion river is considered as shown in Figure 3.32 to avoid the airport development area for runway the extension and the important road in that area.

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.32 Diversion River Route Plan (Option A-3) b) Earth Work Plan for Diversion River Based on the above diversion river longitudinal profile plan, the planned and existing cross section in each point are studied as shown in Figure 3.33.

3-27 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

16 14 12 10 LD+1550 8 LD+1250 6 LD+250 LD+1000 LD+750 4 LD+0 Elevation(m) 2 LD+500 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Existing Elevation Longitudinal Distance (LD) from River Mouth (m) Planned Elevation Source: The Study Team Figure 3.33 Planned Longitudinal Profile of Diversion River (Option A-3) Based on the above diversion river longitudinal profile plan, the planned and existing cross section in each point are studied as shown in Figure 3.34.

LD +0 LD +250 LD +500 8 10 12

7 9 11 6 8 10 5 7 9 4 6 8 3 5 7 2 4 6 1 3 5 0 2 4 -5 45 95 145 195 -5 45 95 145 195 -5 45 95 145 195 LD +750 LD +1000 LD +1250 14 16 18

13 15 17

12 14 16 15 11 13 14 10 12 13 9 11 12 8 10 11 7 9 10 6 8 -5 45 95 145 195 -5 45 95 145 195 -5 45 95 145 195 LD +1550 20 Planned Elevation 19 18 Existing Elevation 17 16 Traverse Axis: Cross Sectional Distance (m) 15 14 Vertical Axis: Elevation (m) 13

12 -5 45 95 145 195 Source: The Study Team Figure 3.34 Planned Cross Section for Diversion River (Option A-3) Based on the above consideration, the difference calculus can be applied for the calculation of earthwork volume. The estimated earthwork volume for the diversion river is calculated as follows:

 Filing Volume : 34,000 m3  Cutting Volume: 641,000 m3

2) Construction Cost The construction cost for the option is summarized as shown in Table 3-25.

The unit rates of each construction items are estimated based on the past construction price in Timor- Leste and the other countries such as Indonesia, etc.

3-28 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

Table 3-25 Construction Cost (Option A-3) Unit Total Description Q'ty Unit Price Amount (USD) (USD) 1. Preparatory Works (incl. Mobilization) 800,000 2. Demolition of Existing Housing 518,000 m2 12 6,216,000 River Dike 3,550 m 1,000 3,550,000 3. River Diver- Filling 34,000 m3 10 346,800 sion Excavation 641,000 m3 7 4,615,200 Filling on Existing River 421,000 m3 10 4,294,200 Revetment 1,410 m 28,370 40,001,700 4. Reclamation Reclamation (off shore) 1,142,600 m3 36 41,133,600 Reclamation (on shore) 278,900 m3 24 6,693,600 Filling 255,000 m3 10 2,601,000 Excavation 69,000 m3 7 496,800 Extension of Runway 36,000 m2 120 4,320,000 5. Upgrading Widening of Runway 27,750 m2 120 3,330,000 of Runway Parallel Taxiway and Connection Taxiway 74,000 m2 120 8,880,000 Land Preparation for Runway and Taxiway 485,000 m2 11 5,238,000 Strip Total 132,520,000 Source: The Study Team 3) Construction Schedule The construction schedule is shown in Table 3-26.

Table 3-26 Construction Schedule (Option A-3) Description Qty Unit 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 5th Year 1. Mobilization & Demobilization 1.0 L.S. 2. Demolition of Existing Houseing 518,000 m2 3. River Diversion (Earth Works) 3-1 Excavation 641,000 m3 3-2 Filling 34,000 m3 3-3 Filling on Existing River 421,000 m3 4. River Dike for New River 4-1 River Dike (Right Bank) 1,600 m 4-2 River Dike (Left Bank) 1,650 m 4-3 Temporary Dike (Left Bank) 300 m 5. Reclamation & Revetment 5-1 Revetment 1,410 m 5-2 Reclamation 1,421,000 m3 6. Upgrading of Runway 6-1 Excavation 69,000 m3 6-2 Filling 255,000 m3 6-3 Extension of Runway 36,000 m2 6-4 Widening of Runway 27,750 m2 6-5 Parallel Taxiway and Connection Taxiway 74,000 m2 6-6 Land Preparation for Runway and Taxiway Strip 485,000 m2 Source: The Study Team 4) Recommendation and Suggestions GoTL have a plan for the upgrading project of Comoro river including widening works of the river around the airport. GoTL have to pay attention that this project around the airport area should be can- celled if construction of the river diversion is decided.

These technical studies are still preliminary level. The detail technical study in future stage is required in order to get higher accuracy information.

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3.3.4 Comparison of Options for Technical Aspect From the technical point of view, the development options described above are compared and simply evaluated as shown in Table 3-27. Table 3-27 Comparison of Options (Technical Aspect) Construction Construction Option Other Technical Concerns Cost Period  The advanced marine technology is 352,190,000 required for the construction and 5 years Option A-1 USD maintenance of the revetment struc- (West side, RW2,500 m) ture on the deep see area (over -30m). 3 3 3 85,830,000  Diversion process of the river for con- 4.5 years Option A-2 USD struction need to be elaborated. (East side, RW2,500 m) 5 4 4  The construction of the revetment is easier to compare with Option A-1. 132,520,000 5 years (water depth: around -8m) Option A-3 USD (Both sides, RW2,500 m)  Diversion process of the river for construction need to be elaborated. 4 3 4 *Each item is scored in 1 ~ 5. Source: Study Team Based on the above Table 3-27, the scoring of each option with weightage of maximum 100 scores is summarized as shown in Table 3-28. Table 3-28 Comparison of Options (Technical Aspect) Construction Cost Construction Period Other Technical Concerns Total Option (Weight: 50 %) (Weight: 20 %) (Weight: 30%) Score Option A-1 30 12 18 60 (West side, RW2,500 m) Option A-2 50 16 24 90 (East side, RW2,500 m) Option A-3 40 12 24 76 (Both sides, RW2,500 m) Source: The Study Team Based on the above comparison and evaluation, Option A-2 is the highest scored option from the technical aspect.

3.3.5 Option 2,100 Technical Method Option 2,100 has total 250 m of runway extension with small reclamation works and new taxiway construction as shown in Figure 3.35.

3-30 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.35 Layout of Option 2,100

Construction Cost The construction cost for the option is summarized as shown in Table 3-29.

The unit rate of each construction items are estimated based on the past construction price in Timor- Leste and the other countries such as Indonesia, etc.

Table 3-29 Construction Cost (Option 2,100) Total Unit Price Description Q'ty Unit Amount (USD) (USD) 1. Preparatory Works (incl. Mobilization) 800,000 2. Demolition of Existing Housing 97,850 m2 12 1,174,200 Revetment 807 m 22,300 17,996,100 3. Reclamation Reclamation 194,000 m3 36 6,984,000 Extension of Runway 19,000 m2 120 2,280,000 Widening of Runway 27,750 m2 120 3,330,000 Filling 84,900 m3 10 865,980 4. Upgrading of Excavation 25,500 m3 7 183,600 Runway Parallel Taxiway and Connection Taxiway 44,000 m2 120 5,280,000 Land Preparation for Runway and Taxiway 332,000 m2 11 3,585,600 Strip Total 42,480,000 Source: The Study Team

Construction Schedule The construction schedule is shown in Table 3-30.

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Table 3-30 Construction Schedule (Option 2,100) Description Qty Unit 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 5th Year 1. Mobilization & Demobilization 1.0 L.S. 2. Demolition of Existing Housing 97,850 m2 3. Revetment Reclamation 3-1 Revetment 807 m 3-2 Reclamation 194,000 m3 4. Upgrading of Runway 4-1 Extension of Runway 19,000 m2 4-2 Widening of Runway 27,750 m2 4-3 Parallel Taxiway and Connection Taxiway 44,000 m2 4-4 Land Preparation for Runway and Taxiway Strip 332,000 m2 Source: The Study Team

Recommendation and Suggestions These technical studies are still preliminary level. The detail technical study in future stage is required in order to get higher accuracy information.

3.4 Financial and Economic Viability 3.4.1 General The Study Team analyzed the financial and economic viability based on the following conditions:

 Project year: 30 years,  Construction work starts in 2022,  Operation of updated runway starts in 2025/2027 according to the construction period of each option,  Standard conversion factor is set at 1.00, and economic price is regarded the same as financial price,  Difference in the direction of extension among options does not affect the difference in income and benefit, while it does affect cost and expenditure of construction and operation,  All costs, benefits, revenues, and expenditures are calculated in USD (there is no local currency in Timor-Leste).

3.4.2 Financial Viability Revenue of ANATL According to ANATL, ANATL’s revenue consists mainly of the airfield revenue, passenger terminal revenue, and cargo terminal revenue.

1) Airfield Revenue of the Project Landing fee: Domestic flights are not charged. Code C international flights are charged according to Maximum Take-off Weight (MTOW). Landing fee for airplanes of 80 ton, that is MTOW of B737-800, is set at USD 475 per airplane.

‘With Project Case’ is set in the way that Code E aircraft will be in service by 2036 as suggested in the JICA Airport Study, which supposedly generates incremental income from landing fee of Code E airplanes. Current flights landing in Dili are B737 and A320 (landing fee USD 475 for both) and E70 (USD 340). The Study Team assumed that the landing fee of Code E airplanes (B787, A330) is USD 794,

3-32 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

calculated from the ratio of landing fee of B787-8 vs B737-800 in Denpasar (Ngurah Rai International Airport) and applied this ratio to the landing fee of Dili. Incremental income is generated by the difference between landing fee of Code E and Code C (With Project Case) and Code C only (Without Project Case).

The result of analysis shows that the incremental revenue will be negative because the landing fee of forecasted number of Code C airplanes in the ‘Without Project Case’ exceeds combined landing fee of Code E and Code C airplanes in the ‘With Project Case’.

Table 3-31 Estimated Incremental Income from Landing Fee Per Port of Origin

With Project Without Project Incremental CY Flights (times/year) Landing Fee Flights (times/year) Landing Fee Landing Fee Code E Code C DRW C USD 1,000 DPS Code C SIN Code C DRW USD 1,000 USD 1,000 2020 0 1,776 1,220 1,307 1,568 209 1,220 1,307 0 2021 0 1,903 1,280 1,390 1,683 220 1,280 1,390 0 2022 0 2,032 1,338 1,474 1,802 231 1,338 1,474 0 2023 0 2,168 1,397 1,561 1,926 242 1,397 1,561 0 2024 0 2,307 1,454 1,648 2,054 253 1,454 1,648 0 2025 0 2,451 1,511 1,739 2,188 264 1,511 1,739 0 2026 0 2,598 1,566 1,829 2,323 275 1,566 1,829 0 2027 0 2,752 1,623 1,924 2,466 286 1,623 1,924 0 2028 0 2,907 1,675 2,017 2,610 297 1,675 2,017 0 2029 0 3,068 1,728 2,114 2,761 308 1,728 2,114 0 2030 0 3,231 1,778 2,211 2,913 318 1,778 2,211 0 2031 0 3,401 1,828 2,310 3,073 329 1,828 2,310 0 2032 0 3,579 1,878 2,414 3,239 340 1,878 2,414 0 2033 0 3,765 1,929 2,521 3,414 351 1,929 2,521 0 2034 0 3,960 1,980 2,633 3,598 362 1,980 2,633 0 2035 0 4,163 2,030 2,749 3,790 373 2,030 2,749 0 2036 57 4,273 2,080 2,865 3,990 385 2,080 2,869 -3 2037 173 4,285 2,130 2,983 4,200 397 2,130 2,993 -11 2038 296 4,297 2,180 3,104 4,420 409 2,180 3,122 -18 2039 423 4,310 2,229 3,230 4,650 422 2,229 3,256 -26 2040 557 4,322 2,278 3,361 4,891 434 2,278 3,395 -34 2041 714 4,334 2,314 3,505 5,173 446 2,314 3,548 -44 2042 855 4,346 2,356 3,638 5,427 458 2,356 3,690 -52 2043 1,002 4,358 2,397 3,776 5,692 470 2,397 3,838 -62 2044 1,156 4,370 2,437 3,919 5,968 482 2,437 3,990 -71 2045 1,316 4,382 2,476 4,067 6,257 494 2,476 4,148 -81 2046 1,484 4,394 2,513 4,220 6,559 506 2,513 4,311 -91 2047 1,659 4,406 2,549 4,378 6,874 518 2,549 4,480 -102 2048 1,842 4,419 2,583 4,542 7,203 531 2,583 4,655 -113 2049 2,033 4,431 2,615 4,712 7,547 543 2,615 4,836 -125 2050 2,232 4,443 2,645 4,887 7,905 555 2,645 5,024 -137 2051 2,440 4,456 2,673 5,069 8,280 568 2,673 5,218 -150 2052 2,647 4,467 2,693 5,246 8,653 579 2,693 5,409 -162 2053 2,863 4,479 2,711 5,429 9,041 591 2,711 5,605 -176 2054 3,088 4,490 2,725 5,619 9,446 602 2,725 5,808 -190 2055 3,322 4,501 2,736 5,814 9,868 613 2,736 6,018 -204 2056 3,566 4,512 2,744 6,016 10,307 624 2,744 6,235 -219

3-33 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

With Project Without Project Incremental CY Flights (times/year) Landing Fee Flights (times/year) Landing Fee Landing Fee Code E Code C DRW C USD 1,000 DPS Code C SIN Code C DRW USD 1,000 USD 1,000 2057 3,820 4,523 2,748 6,224 10,764 635 2,748 6,459 -235 2058 4,085 4,534 2,748 6,440 11,241 646 2,748 6,691 -251 2059 4,361 4,545 2,744 6,662 11,737 657 2,744 6,930 -268 2060 4,608 4,570 2,849 6,910 12,183 682 2,849 7,193 -283 Source: The Study Team 2) Passenger Terminal Revenue The passenger terminal revenue consists of passenger service charge, check-in counter rental fee, floor rental, advertising, and other fees and charges.

Table 3-32 Passenger Terminal Revenue Passenger Service Check-in Counter Other Fees and Item Floor Rental Advertising Charge Rental Fee Charges Domestic No charge No charge USD 110,325 USD 8,684/year USD 469,959 /year (estimate) (estimate) /year (estimate) International USD 10/passenger USD 30 for B737 and A320 and USD 20 for E70. Source: ANATL Similarly as income from landing fee, discussed in previous section, 1) Airfield revenue of the project. ‘With Project Case’ set in the way that Code E aircraft will be in service by 2036 as suggested in the JICA Airport Study Report, which supposedly generates incremental income from check-in counter for Code E planes. Table below shows the estimated incremental income from the check-in counter. The study team set the check-in counter rental fee for Code E airplanes at USD 60.

The result of analysis shows that incremental revenue generates slightly positive revenue from 2036.

Table 3-33 Estimated Incremental Income from Check-in Counter Unit: USD 1,000 CY With Project Without Project Incremental Code E @60 Code C@30 DRW C @20 Revenue Code C@30 DRW C @20 Revenue revenue 2020 0 53 24 78 53 24 78 0 2021 0 57 26 83 57 26 83 0 2022 0 61 27 88 61 27 88 0 2023 0 65 28 93 65 28 93 0 2024 0 69 29 98 69 29 98 0 2025 0 74 30 104 74 30 104 0 2026 0 78 31 109 78 31 109 0 2027 0 83 32 115 83 32 115 0 2028 0 87 34 121 87 34 121 0 2029 0 92 35 127 92 35 127 0 2030 0 97 36 133 97 36 133 0 2031 0 102 37 139 102 37 139 0 2032 0 107 38 145 107 38 145 0 2033 0 113 39 152 113 39 152 0 2034 0 119 40 158 119 40 158 0 2035 0 125 41 165 125 41 165 0 2036 3 128 42 173 131 42 173 0 2037 10 129 43 182 138 43 181 1 2038 18 129 44 190 145 44 188 2

3-34 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

CY With Project Without Project Incremental Code E @60 Code C@30 DRW C @20 Revenue Code C@30 DRW C @20 Revenue revenue 2039 25 129 45 199 152 45 197 3 2040 33 130 46 209 160 46 205 3 2041 43 130 46 219 169 46 215 4 2042 51 130 47 229 177 47 224 5 2043 60 131 48 239 185 48 233 6 2044 69 131 49 249 194 49 242 7 2045 79 131 50 260 203 50 252 8 2046 89 132 50 271 212 50 262 9 2047 100 132 51 283 222 51 273 10 2048 111 133 52 295 232 52 284 11 2049 122 133 52 307 243 52 295 12 2050 134 133 53 320 254 53 307 13 2051 146 134 53 334 265 53 319 15 2052 159 134 54 347 277 54 331 16 2053 172 134 54 360 289 54 343 17 2054 185 135 54 374 301 54 356 19 2055 199 135 55 389 314 55 369 20 2056 214 135 55 404 328 55 383 21 2057 229 136 55 420 342 55 397 23 2058 245 136 55 436 357 55 412 25 2059 262 136 55 453 372 55 427 26 2060 276 137 57 471 386 57 443 28 Source: The Study Team

Also, ANATL receives USD 470 thousand annually (estimated) as other fees and charges. It is set that the commencement of the Code E planes will bring additional revenue of this item by 50% or USD 235 thousand/year.

Expenditure of ANATL Expenditure of ANATL relating to the project consists of total construction cost, operation and maintenance, and general administration cost.

1) Project Cost Construction Cost: The construction cost summarized in the table below is used for analysis. It is composed of construction cost of widening of runway, extension, parallel taxiway, engineering service fee and contingency.

Table 3-34 Construction Cost Unit: USD 1,000 Option Construction Method Construction Cost A-1 West side 2500 m Reclamation, bank embankment 426,150 A-2 East side 2500 m River diversion 113,510 A-3 Both side 2500 m Reclamation, bank embankment, River diversion 160,930 2100 - 2100 m Bank embankment 56,180 Note: PTW = parallel taxiway; Construction cost includes engineering service fee and contingency Source: The Study Team 2) Maintenance Cost A large-scale maintenance will be needed every 20 years after commencement of operation, and a small- scale maintenance will be needed between two large-scale maintenances. The Study Team set the cost of large-scale maintenance at 2.0% to 3.0% and small-scale maintenance at 1.0% to 1.5% of the total

3-35 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

construction cost. Also, the Study Team uses ANATL’s current administration cost.

Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) Based on the abovementioned income and revenue of the runway upgrading project, the Study Team calculated the FIRR of all options. As a result, FIRR is negative for all options and lower than minus 15.0%. One of the reasons of this negative result is probably that the runway upgrading project does not generate additional income to ANATL apart from the revenues of Code E planes: such as landing fee and check-in counter rental fee to be generated about ten years after the completion, while the number of passengers remains lower than the forecasted demand. Also, construction cost, especially the cost for reclamation, is much higher than the incremental revenue.

Sensitivity Analysis The Study Team did sensitivity analysis to find the condition where FIRR becomes positive. The Study Team set landing fee of Code E airplanes as important factor, because incremental revenue is born by commencement of Code E airplanes flights in 2036. Code C airplanes remains in service after 2036 but the flight number will not increase after the entry of Code E planes.

Condition of the sensitivity analysis for FIRR

Case 1: Landing fee of Denpasar (Ngurah Rai International Airport) is applied to Code E airplanes (Code E= USD 1,428/airplane) Case 2: Landing fee of median of Denpasar and Haneda (Tokyo International Airport) is applied to Code E airplanes Case 3: Landing fee of Haneda is applied to Code E airplanes If landing fee of Haneda of Code E airplanes (Case 3) is applied, FIRR is improved but it remains still negative. Therefore, runway upgrading in width and length will not generate favorable FIRR by itself for all cases. Among options, FIRR of Option A-2 is most largely improved. Option 2100 remains less than -15% for all cases: it is because Code E airplanes cannot land on/take-off from the runway of 2100m length.

The summary is shown in the table below.

Table 3-35 Summary of FIRR and Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis Option Original FIRR Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Median of HND** & Code E : USD/plane DIL* 794 DPS 1,428 HND 2,574** DPS 2,001 Code C : USD/plane DIL 475 DIL 475 DIL 475 DIL 475 A-1 < -15% -13.46% -9.73% -7.98% A-2 < -15% -7.23% -4.41% -2.99% A-3 < -15% -8.24% -5.58% -4.04% 2100 < -15% < -15% < -15% < -15% Note: * Calculated based on the ratio of Code C fee in DPS and DIL; Code C = DIL ** Exchange rate is set at USD 1.00 = JPY 110 DIL = Dili, DPS = Denpasar, HND = Haneda Source: The Study Team

FIRR calculation sheet is attached as seen in the next pages.

3-36 Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

Table 3-36 FIRR Calculation Sheet (1) Option A-1 Westside 2500 m + RESA 150 m

Note: Construction cost includes engineering service fee and contingency. Source: The Study Team

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(2) Option A-2 East side 2,500 m + RESA 150 m

Note: Construction cost includes engineering service fee and contingency. Source: The Study Team

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(3) Option A-3 Both Sides 2,500 m + RESA 150 m

Note: Construction cost includes engineering service fee and contingency. Source: The Study Team

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(4) Option 2100 2,100 m

Note: Construction cost includes engineering service fee and contingency. Source: The Study Team

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3.4.3 Economic Viability Identification of Economic Benefit The Study Team examined possible economic benefits of the project and applied the benefit of recovery of air cargo load currently reduced due to the short runway to the viability analysis. 1) Non-incremental benefits (i) Cost reduction for existing users resulting from lower travel access and waiting time

Runway Upgrading Project aims to meet the international runway standard by widening and extending present runway. It does not improve travel access because the present runway can provide service to all forecasted flight demand, both for international and domestic, till 2060 (but all are Code C airplanes). Therefore, there is neither increase in flight number nor waiting time so, the cost and time does not reduce.

(ii) Improvement in service reliability and predictability in operation

Service reliability and predictability may be improved in case of bad weather, especially thick fog. But VOR/DME system is installed already in the Dili International Airport and the effect of extension is supposed to be limited.

(iii) Reduction in operating costs

Operating costs will not be reduced. Rather, widening in width and extension in length possibly increase operating costs.

(iv) Improvement of passenger services and increase of their satisfaction

Improvement of passenger services and increase of customer satisfaction are generated mainly by improvement of land side facilities, such as improvement of terminal building and upgrading of im- migration system.

2) Incremental benefits (i) Generating additional passengers as a result of cost reduction and improvements in frequency and services Incremental domestic passengers For the runway upgrading project, no incremental economic benefit is generated by domestic passengers in the ‘With Project Case’. Output of the project is widening and extension of length of the present runway. ‘With Project Case’ makes it possible for larger airplanes (Code E planes) to land at and take-off from Dili Airport. Considering that domestic flights use small airplanes (Code B planes), the With Project Case does neither give benefit to domestic passengers nor generate any economic benefit after commencement of operation. Therefore, the economic benefit of domestic passengers is set at zero. Incremental international passengers Increase of international passengers will not generate incremental economic benefits in the ‘With Project Case’. The Study Team estimated that the present runway has the capacity to afford all forecasted demand of international passengers by Code C airplanes till 2060 (this is the entire operation period of the ‘With Project Case’). Thus, runway upgrading does not generate additional passengers. Forecasted passenger demand is lower than the number of passengers that the present runway can afford by Code C airplane.

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Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

(ii) Generating additional freight traffic Recovery of limited air cargo load It generates economic benefit. At present, Code C airplanes must reduce their total weight due to the short runway length of the existing runway. Airline companies do not reduce passengers but limit air cargo load. When the runway is extended to 2,500 m, full-load freight service is possible and it generates additional freight traffic. Economic benefit Value of cost saving replacement by the cargo transportation

Whilst the ‘With Project Case’ will not bring economic benefit from passenger side, it will bring benefit from air cargo side.

Present runway has no RESA and length is 1,850 m. For this reason, Code C airplanes flying to Dili, B737-800 and A320, must reduce weight to land and take-off from the runway with such short length. To take measure to this situation, airline companies at present reduce air cargo load in case of passengers number. Limited volume of in-coming air cargo possibly affects increase of selling price in Timor-Leste and the amount of value of limited cargo is regarded as the loss of benefit for the country.

In the ‘With Project Case’ of Option A-1, A-2, and A-3, where runway extension length is 2,500m, this amount will be saved and it is considered as economic benefit.

The value of cargo transportation and average load factor are tentatively set at USD 0.5/kg (one-twenti- eth of excess fee) and 50% respectively. Case of ‘Without Project Case’ is as follows:

(i) Flights bound to Denpasar by B737-800 - Full capacity v.s. available weight: 6,900 kg v.s. 1,200 kg (only 18% of cargo is transported) - 50% of full capacity is 3,450 kg: therefore, 2,250 kg is lost (3,450 – 1,200). - Total value loss from limited cargo: 2,250 kg X USD 0.5 = USD 1,125/ airplane (ii) Flights bound to Singapore by A320 - Full capacity vs available weight: 6,400 kg v.s. 4,500 kg (70.3% of cargo is transported) - 50% of full capacity is 3,200 kg: as the plane transports 70.3% of cargo, there is no loss - Total value loss from limited cargo: USD 0/ airplane

Option 2100, where extended length is 2,100m, airplanes cannot transport at full capacity but at certain limited volume.

- In “With Project Case”, an airplane transports 3,200 kg at full capacity. - Full capacity v.s. available weight: 3,200 kg v.s. 1,200 kg - 50% of full capacity is 1,600 kg: therefore, 400 kg is lost (1,600 - 1,200). - Total value loss from limited cargo: 400 kg X USD 0.5 = USD 200/ airplane Based on this data we calculated the cost saving in the ‘With Project Case’ (same amount of loss in ‘Without Project Case’).

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Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

Table 3-37 Estimate of Limited Cargo in the Without Project Case Loss of Cargo Load Transportation Value of Recovery Value of Recovery Unit: t/year Option A-1, A-2, A-3 Option 2100 CY 1Cargo Load @0.5/kg DPS SIN Total Unit: 1,000 USD/year 2020 3,527 0 3,527 1,764 314 2021 3,787 0 3,787 1,894 337 2022 4,054 0 4,054 2,027 360 2023 4,334 0 4,334 2,167 385 2024 4,621 0 4,621 2,311 411 2025 4,922 0 4,922 2,461 438 2026 5,227 0 5,227 2,613 465 2027 5,549 0 5,549 2,774 493 2028 5,873 0 5,873 2,936 522 2029 6,212 0 6,212 3,106 552 2030 6,555 0 6,555 3,278 583 2031 6,914 0 6,914 3,457 615 2032 7,289 0 7,289 3,644 648 2033 7,682 0 7,682 3,841 683 2034 8,095 0 8,095 4,047 720 2035 8,526 0 8,526 4,263 758 2036 8,979 0 8,979 4,489 798 2037 9,450 0 9,450 4,725 840 2038 9,945 0 9,945 4,973 884 2039 10,462 0 10,462 5,231 930 2040 11,006 0 11,006 5,503 978 2041 11,639 0 11,639 5,820 1,035 2042 12,210 0 12,210 6,105 1,085 2043 12,806 0 12,806 6,403 1,138 2044 13,429 0 13,429 6,714 1,194 2045 14,079 0 14,079 7,039 1,251 2046 14,758 0 14,758 7,379 1,312 2047 15,467 0 15,467 7,733 1,375 2048 16,207 0 16,207 8,104 1,441 2049 16,980 0 16,980 8,490 1,509 2050 17,787 0 17,787 8,893 1,581 2051 18,629 0 18,629 9,315 1,656 2052 19,468 0 19,468 9,734 1,731 2053 20,342 0 20,342 10,171 1,808 2054 21,253 0 21,253 10,627 1,889 2055 22,202 0 22,202 11,101 1,974 2056 23,190 0 23,190 11,595 2,061 2057 24,220 0 24,220 12,110 2,153 2058 25,292 0 25,292 12,646 2,248 2059 26,409 0 26,409 13,204 2,347 2060 27,411 0 27,411 13,706 2,437 Source: The Study Team

Economic Cost The Study Team uses the same construction cost, operation and maintenance cost and administration cost as the financial analysis for economic analysis.

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Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) EIRR of two options is positive. The EIRR of Option A-2 , where construction cost is relatively low, is 2.32%, while EIRR of Option A-1 is negative with - 4.04%. As same as FIRR, EIRR relates to the construction cost, but economic benefit is higher than financial benefit. Sensitivity Analysis The Study Team did sensitivity analysis to find the condition where EIRR of all options becomes positive by changing the price of recovered cargo.

Condition of the sensitivity analysis for FIRR

Case a: Unit price of recovered cargo is USD 0.75 per kg. Case b: Unit price of recovered cargo is USD 1.00 per kg. As a result, it is found that recovery of cargo has favorable result for Option A-2 and Option A-3 where construction cost is relatively low compared to Option A-1. Both Option A-1 and Option 2100 remain below 0% because of different reason: construction cost, especially reclamation cost is high for Option A-1 and Code C airplanes cannot load full cargo from the runway with length of 2100m.

The summary is shown in the table below.

Table 3-38 Summary of EIRR and Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis Option Original Case Case a Case b price of recovered cargo USD 0.5/kg USD 0.75/kg USD 1.0/kg A-1 -4.04% -2.14% -0.76% A-2 2.32% 4.65% 6.45% A-3 1.52% 2.76% 4.41% 2100 -3.80% -1.65% -0.09% Source: The Study Team

EIRR calculation sheet is attached as seen in the next pages.

Following is the additional information relating to the economic benefit of the runway upgrading.

The Government of Timor Leste has prepared “Timor Leste National Tourism Policy” to enhance the national identity but it does not have breakdown strategy, concrete action plan or target figure. Ministry of Tourism regards the present runway of Dili Airport as one of the constraints against tourism development because it does not meet the international standard and is not safe15. According to them, improvement of the runway is one of the conditions for tourism development. On the other hand, increase of tourist arrivals will give positive impact on the Timorese economy and improve EIRR. In this situation, when the ministry forecasts increase of tourists and income from tourism, it is another impact of the runway upgrading and it can be applied to EIRR as considerable factor.

15 Source: Interview to the General Director of Tourism, Ministry of Tourism

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Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

Table 3-39 EIRR Calculation Sheet (1) Option A-1 Westside 2500 m + RESA 150 m

Construction cost includes engineering service fee and contingency. O&M: 1.0% of construction cost in 10th and 30th year, and 2.0% in 20th year Source: The Study Team

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Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

(2) Option A-2 East side 2500 m + RESA 150 m

Construction cost includes engineering service fee and contingency. O&M: 1.5% of construction cost in 10th and 30th year, and 3.0% in 20th year Source: The Study Team

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(3) Option A-3 Both Sides 2500 m + RESA 150 m

Construction cost includes engineering service fee and contingency. O&M: 1.0% of construction cost in 10th and 30th year, and 2.0% in 20th year Source: The Study Team

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(4) Option 2100 2100m

Construction cost includes engineering service fee and contingency. O&M: 1.5% of construction cost in 10th and 30th year, and 3.0% in 20th year Source: The Study Team

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3.5 Environmental Impact 3.5.1 Methodology It is obvious that the project implementation will have wide-ranging adverse and positive impacts to the surrounding environment. The detailed and quantitative assessment based on the on-site survey results should be implemented in the forthcoming design stage study and/or at least in the EIA study, according to the legislation of GoTL. On the other hand, in this study, preliminary environmental impact assessment was conducted to rank the four project options, namely option A-1, option A-2, option A-3 and option 2100 in terms of environmental safeguard according to the study purpose. The likely environmental impact for each option was assessed at the pre-feasibility level in a qualitative manner based on analysis of the environmental survey result.

The scale and target of the environmental impact will differ depending on the conditions in the direction and distance of the runway extension. The project-affected areas of the four options are classified into two groups, i.e., the west side extended area and the east side extended area.

Firstly, preliminary scoping was conducted targeting the two classified areas, in order to find out the overall possible environmental impacts and to identify key environmental impact items to be considered.

Next, important criteria for environmental safeguard were identified from the key environmental impact items and nominated as sub-criteria (Criteria Level-2) to be used in MCA. Then, the environmental impact of the criteria was assessed for the four project options in a simplified way. During the assessment, any critical factors for project implementation, such as a no-go option (e.g., the project area includes a protected area where any development works are restricted), were checked if they are included or not. Such critical risk was considered into MCA by putting a higher weight when project options are scored. Finally, the most preferred and least preferred project options from the environmental safeguard aspect were identified.

3.5.2 Preliminary Scoping The preliminary scoping targeted the project options for west-side extension and east-side extension. The environmental impacts on each affected area were assessed and scored from A- - (most significant adverse impact) to D (no impact). The results are summarized in the table below. Temporary and minor impacts (e.g., small-scale cut down of non-threatened trees) as well as impacts that could happen in both-sides options (e.g., solid waste generation at a project operation stage) were not considered because the aim of preliminary scoping is options assessment. It should be noted that the Option 2100 proposes the additional development area north and south of the existing airport area for terminal and support facilities. However, the possible impact caused by development of these additional areas is not taken into consideration in the option analysis for environmental impact, because this study should focus on options for runway extension.

Table 3-40 Preliminary Scoping for the East or West Side Affected Areas Environmental Possible Impacts on West Side Affected Area Possible Impacts on East Side Affected Item Area Terrestrial bio- B-/ B-/ diversity The project affected area is mainly situated Terrestrial plant and animals will be ad- in the sea area, almost not covering the ter- versely affected to some extent due to land restrial environment. The impact on terres- preparation of runway and river diversion. trial biodiversity is limited. However, birds However, the project affected area is an ur- habituating in Tasi Tulu IBA would be af- ban and residential area where trees are fected. planted mainly for vegetation. It is unlikely for endangered flora and fauna to live. Marine and A--/ A-/

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coastal biodiver- The wide area of reclamation will destroy The river division will change the river sity the coastal ecosystem in Tasi Tolu, deterio- mouth which also might affect biodiversity rating marine and coastal biodiversity com- in the surrounding area. posed by seagrass, coral, dugong, turtles, and other flora and fauna.

Protected area B--/ D/ The project options do not cover the pro- The project options do not cover the protected area. However, the reclamation area is tected area. adjacent to Tasi Tolu protected area. The aircraft would interfere with flight paths of birds habituating in IBA. Coastal topogra- A--/ A-/ phy The natural coastline will be lost by recla- The diversion of river mouth will lead to mation work in A-1 and A-3 project option. loss of beaches. Hydrology of D/ A- / the Comoro No impact is anticipated. The river flow downstream will be dramat- river basin ically changed by the river diversion. Ocean current A-/ A--/ The water flow in Tasi Tolu will be changed The coastal flow around the river mouth by reclaimed land. will be changed by the river diversion.

Surface water B--/ B-/ quality The Tasi Tolu Sea will have a semi-enclosed The diverted river mouth will affect water coastal water area that is vulnerable to pollu- quality in the surrounding area. tion. The reclamation work will reduce areas of sand beach, seagrass, and coral that will reduce natural water purification functions. Groundwater D/ C/ quality and No impact is anticipated. There are concerns on impact on the quantity groundwater level at wells in the surrounding area, that would be caused by river diversion and its construction work. How- ever, the impact on amount of groundwater recharge and the interaction of groundwater and river water are not clear. Soil quality D/ D/ No impact is anticipated. No impact is anticipated. Sediment qual- B-/ C/ ity at the sea The sediment quality would be deteriorated The sedimentation characteristic at around bottom around the semi-enclosed sea area south of the river mouth will be changed, but it is the reclaimed land. not clear whether or not the impact is adverse. Sediment in the D/ B-/ river bottom No impact is anticipated. The existing mining ground at the Comoro River channel will be lost. In addition, the river diversion will change the local hydrology from the river and the deposition patterns of gravel and sand. Fish resources B--/ B-/ The project will develop a part of the local The fishing ground would be deteriorated fishing ground. Fish resources around the by the river diversion. project area will be lessened. Noise and vibra- A-/ A-/ tion Some residential areas along the coast line Runway extension to the eastern side will enlarge the area affected by aircraft noise,

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will be affected by aircraft noise. In addi- especially in Suco Bebonuk. tion, aircraft and construction noise would interfere with the behavior patterns and vocal communication of dugongs.

A--: Most significant adverse impact is anticipated. A- : Significant adverse impact is anticipated. B--: Moderate adverse impact is anticipated. B-: Slight adverse impact is anticipated. C: Impact is unknown. D: No impact is anticipated. Source: The Study Team

3.5.3 Identification of Criteria for Comparison The sub-criteria were selected based on the following conditions of environmental items as a result of preliminary scoping and evaluation of key concerns.

a. Prioritize an impact item that would have more significant impacts;

b. Prioritize a cumulative, wider-ranged, and longer-lasting impact items;

c. Consider any possible factors causing critical impact on the environment or project implementation;

d. Should be mutually independent; and

e. Should be as collectively exhaustive as possible to obtain effective output of MCA.

The optimum sub-criteria were identified based on the collected facts and evaluation made as shown in the table below. Three sub-criteria, i.e., 1) biodiversity, 2) noise and vibration, and 3) river flow and ocean current, meet with the conditions. A more detailed preliminary impact assessment for the sub- criteria was made to compare the three project options.

Table 3-41 Identification of Sub-criteria Environmental Item a. Significance b. Cumulative, c. Critical im- d. Exhaustive Total of impacts wider-ranged, pact to obtain effec- Score and tive output longer-lasting impact item Biodiversity 5 5 5 5 20 Protected area 5 3 4 2 14 Coastal topography 4 5 4 4 17 River flow and ocean 5 5 4 4 18 current Air quality 3 4 3 3 13 Surface water quality 4 5 4 3 16 Groundwater quality 3 4 4 3 14 Soil quality 2 2 1 2 7 Sediment quality 4 4 4 3 15 Natural resource 4 4 4 4 16 Noise and vibration 5 5 4 5 19 Scale: 5: very likely, 4: likely, 3: neutral, 2: unlikely, 1: very unlikely Source: The Study Team

Although three sub-criteria are expected to be used for comprehensive assessment of project options in terms of environmental safeguards, the following point should be paid additional attention regarding impact to/from protected area. Although the sea of Tasi Tulu is officially not designated as protected

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area, a momentum for proposing the Tasi Tulu marine protected area would be growing. In case the project development area or affected area is identified as a critical habitat, the proposed project will be restricted, or stricter conditions would be imposed to meet requirements of safeguard guidelines, which is considered in 3.5.5. 3.5.4 Preliminary Environmental Impact Assessment Biodiversity 1) Methodology The impact on biodiversity was predicted by a qualitative manner based on the development area of project options and the effect on wildlife habitat anticipated by scientific knowledge collected by literature survey.

2) Preliminary prediction result The likely impact on biodiversity is summarized with possible mitigation measures as follows:

- Dugong: The reclaimed area in Tasi Tolu is adjacent to the habitat of dugongs, a vulnerable marine species classified in the IUCN Red List. The development work will reduce the habitat and feeding ground of dugongs. In addition, underwater noise and vibration caused by construction work and sea-based vehicles would interfere in the behavior and sound communication of dugongs, because dugongs are known as noise-sensitive wildlife. The large-scaled development work in Tasi Tolu is likely to drive dugongs away from their crucial habitat. Available information on mitigation measures for impacts on dugong is limited. It is not clear whether the impact could be mitigated.

- Seagrass: Seagrass is distributed in the coast of Tasi Tolu. The seagrass serves not only as a feeding ground of dugong, but also as a spawning and growing ground of fishes. The reclamation work will destroy the seagrass area and deteriorate water and sediment quality in the surrounding area, which could result in loss or deterioration of seagrass habitat. There are several mitigation measures that could be applied, such as planting seagrass, but it would hardly recover the destroyed seagrass habitat.

- Coral reef and other marine habitats: The wide area of reclamation will destroy the coastal ecosystem in Tasi Tolu, deteriorating the marine and coastal biodiversity composed of corals, sea turtles including critically endangered and endangered species, and other flora and fauna in addition to dugongs and seagrass. There are several mitigation measures that could be applied to the indirectly affected ecosystem, but it would hardly recover the directly-destroyed marine ecosystem.

- Sea turtles: Not only reclamation work at natural coastal line in west-side extension options, but also the river diversion work in east-side extension options will destroy the nesting ground of sea turtles in Bebonuk beach.

- Bird-strikes: One of the most significant potential hazards at airports is the collision between aircraft and wildlife, such as birds, which may result in damages not only to the aircraft or in structural failure, but also damage to wildlife. In Dili Airport, there could be more risks of bird strikes since the development area is adjacent to Tasi Tolu, where near-threatened or restricted- range bird species live. The mitigation measures to be applied include i) managing land use within the airport property confines to deter birds and other wildlife, and ii) applying wildlife removal techniques, as needed. (IFC, Environmental, Health, and Safety Guidelines: Airport)

The overall disturbance of biodiversity is indirectly evaluated for each option through the following factors:

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ii) Development area in the west-side extended area for evaluation of disturbance of marine and coastal ecosystem in the west side, and

i) Development area in the east-side extended area for evaluation of disturbance of marine, coastal and rive ecosystem in the east side

In this evaluation, the development area, not the influence area, is used for evaluation because the boundary of influence area is not clarified at this stage of the study, but the influence area would proportional to the development area. The development area as represented in Figure 3.36 is approximately calculated as shown in Table 3-42. The influence area will be estimated or considered depending on the impact items described in the following section.

Source: The Study Team

Figure 3.36 Comparison of Development Area Among Each Project Options

Table 3-42 Approximately Calculated Developed Area for Each Option to Anticipate the Scale of Disturbance to Biodiversity Project Options Directly Developed Directly Developed Remarks Area in West Side Ex- Area in East Side Ex- tended Area tended Area

Option A-1 Land 6.1 5.8 - area Sea area 23 0 Total 29 (most affected) 5.8 (least affected) Option A-2 Land 1.8 26 In addition, 33 ha of area area will be included Sea area 3.3 0 in river diversion. Total 5.1 (second least af- 26 (most affected) fected) Option A-3 Land 4.7 18 In addition, 33 ha of area area will be included Sea area 8.0 0 in river diversion. Total 13 (second most af- 18 (second most affected) fected)

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Option 2100 Land 3.3 10 - area Sea area 0.9 0 Total 4.2 (least affected) 10 (second least affected) Unit: ha Note: The northern and southern development area that will be developed in all project options are not calculated. Source: The Study Team

Noise and vibration 1) Methodology There will be two type of noise and vibration impacts: 1) noise and vibration caused by construction work and 2) air craft noise and vibration during the operation stage. Both impacts would affect people and wildlife in the surrounding area, which should be examined in the EIA study. However, the impact on dugong in the construction stage and the impact on local communities during the operation stage are focused as periodized issues. The reasons are described as below:

- The possible threat to dugong would be critical as existing dugong’s habitat is quite limited in Timor-Leste. Also, this concern is raised by several stakeholders.

- The air craft noise and vibration would be permanent issues both on local communities and dugong.

The impact of aircraft noise and vibration was preliminary predicted by overlaying the following information and by identifying the probability of exceeding the threshold level of aircraft noise in the residential area to assess the possible impact on the surrounding population.

- Development area of project options

- Result of aircraft noise assessment done by a software used by the (Federal Aviation Admin- istration (FAA) in the previous study16

Basic scientific information for noise and vibration impact on dugong, is limited. Thus, the possible impact on dugongs is described in a qualitative manner based on the literature review considering the distance between the development area and the dugong’s habitat.

2) Preliminary prediction result The construction work in the seaside extended runway would undertake underwater noise intensive construction activities, such as piling, interfering with dugongs’ habitat. Although there are limited available case studies on noise impact on dugong, there is a past case of prediction in which the underwater noise caused by piling work would exceed the threshold level to affect the dugongs’ sound communication within a several kilometers between the construction site and the dugongs’ habitat (EIA Report for De- velopment of Futenma Airport, 2011). In this study, it is obvious that greater the distance of the noise and vibration source from dugong’s habitat, the less adverse impact it would cause.

On the other hand, the most significant sources of noise from airport operations are aircrafts during the landing and takeoff cycles. The aircraft noise level around the Dili Airport was calculated by the Inte- grated Noise Model (INM) in the Preparatory Survey for the Project for Improvement of Dili Airport. The survey predicted the Day-Night Average Sound Level (DNL), which is an internationally-recognized unit for aircraft noise and used in the United States and other countries, based on the number of

16 Preparatory Survey for the Project for Improvement of Presidente Nicolau Lobato International Airport, Final Report 2019

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flight departures and arrivals in April 2017 and planned in April 2027. The result was evaluated compared with the FAA threshold value of the aircraft noise level for residential areas, 65 DNL. The following figure of prediction result showed that the residential area in the surroundings of Dili Airport does not experience over 65 DNL. The number of takeoffs and landings in 2027 will increase by five flights on average, which will not dramatically affect residential populations. In this study, the distance between the end of runway and the contour of threshold value is referred to for simplified assessment of project options. However, it should be noted that the contour differs depending on the input data of INM such as type of aircraft, flight route and profile, atmosphere pressure, location point of taking-off and landing, and schedule and number of flights. The aircraft noise level for selected project option should be predicted in the future EIA study.

Note: FAA cites the following threshold: NDL > 65: significant impact, DNL between 55 and 65: Moderate, DNL < 55: Least severe Source: Preparatory Survey for the Project for Improvement of Presidente Nicolau Lobato International Airport, Final Report 2019 Figure 3.37 Result of Noise Prediction in the Previous Study The scale of noise and vibration impact is compared with each option in Table 3-43, based on the following information. - Residential and commercial area which would have significant aircraft noise impact is tentatively predicted for area approximately 0.15 km from the end of runway, which was simply assumed based on the above result of noise prediction in the previous study.

- Significance of impact on dugong is quantitively evaluated by distance between dugong’s main habitat area in Tasi Tolu and western development area of airport runway.

The result shows that the runway extension to eastern side will enlarge the area affected by aircraft noise and vibration to communities including several sensitive receptors such as school or church as listed in

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2.8.2, while the runway extension to western side will disturb behavior patterns and vocal communication of dugongs.

Table 3-43 Anticipated Scale of Impact of Noise and Vibration Option Impact on West Side Impact on East Side Residential and com- Significance of impact Residential and com- Remarks mercial area which on dugong mercial area which would have signifi- would have significant aircraft noise im- cant aircraft noise impact pact Option A-1 No residential area Largest (The distance 0 ha - between the reclaimed area for the western side of the runway and the dugong’s habitat will be closest, within hundreds of meters.)

Option A-2 Ditto Second least 0.4 ha Closer to residential and commercial area than Option A- 3

Option A-3 Ditto Second largest 0.4 ha -

Option Ditto Least 0 ha - 2100 Source: The Study Team

River flow and Ocean Current 1) Methodology The impact on river flow and ocean current was predicted by a qualitative manner based on the development area of project options for diversion of Comoro River and reclamation in the sea area.

2) Preliminary prediction result There will be two causes of change of hydrology and ocean current, i.e., i) diversion of Comoro River and ii) reclaimed land for airport runway in the coastal water. The possible impacts are anticipated for three directly-affected water area in the following table, i.e., i) reclaimed land in the west side, ii) river runway to be diverted and iii) reclaimed land in the east side near the Comoro River. The possible impact is evaluated in a simplified way only by scale of cause of impact because the hydrological or oceano- graphic prediction of river flow and sea current have not been conducted in this study stage, but should be implemented with examination of possible mitigation measures in the detailed study of the forthcoming project stage or at least in the EIA.

Table 3-44 Anticipated Impact on River Flow and Ocean Current Option Impact on West Side Impact on East Side Impact on Tasi Tulu coastal Impact on Comoro River Impact on sea area in the area east side Option A-1 The presence of reclaimed No impact No impact land will change the ocean current, which would cause the erosion of beach sand. The area of reclaimed land will be largest among options.

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Option A-2 The presence of reclaimed A total 1.6 km of Comoro The current and sedimen- land will change the ocean cur- River way will be changed, tation pattern will be rent, which would cause the that would affect characteris- changed due to change of erosion of beach sand. The tics of groundwater recharge river mouth. area of reclaimed land will be and sedimentation from up- the second smallest. stream. The impact on flood patters are not clear. Option A-3 The presence of reclaimed A total 1.6 km of Comoro The current and sedimen- land will change the ocean cur- River way will be changed, tation pattern will be rent, which would cause the that would affect characteris- changed due to change of erosion of beach sand. The tics of groundwater recharge river mouth. area of reclaimed land will be and sedimentation from up- the second largest. stream. The impact on flood patters are not clear. Option 2100 The presence of reclaimed No impact No impact land will change the ocean current, which would cause the erosion of beach sand. The area of reclaimed land will be the smallest among options.

Source: The Study Team

3.5.5 Further Inputs for Evaluation of Project Options The following considerations for evaluating each option are also made for pre-feasibility level assessment.

Key differential impacts during the construction and operation stages of project development and ability for impacts to be avoided or mitigated The deterioration of biodiversity as well as water quality by construction work was assessed as a part of diversity. The other environmental impacts in the construction stage, except of construction noise and vibration impact on dugong are considered as temporal and do not have big differences of impact among project options. The ability for impacts to be avoided or mitigated was also considered in each assessment.

Likely categorization under the Environmental Licensing Law and ADB’s Safeguard Policy Statement 2009 (SPS) Likely project categorization will not differ among project options.

- Categorization under the Environmental Licensing Law: All project options will be classified into Category A because all runway development or expansion projects are supposed to be in Category A in Timor-Leste.

- Categorization under ADB’s SPS: It is considered that all project options are likely to be classified into Category A because the project will involve reclamation work and/or river diversion work, which will be considered to have significant impact.

Criteria for “no-go” project options ADB’s SPS does not allow project implementation in areas of critical habitat or project which involves significant conversion or degradation in the natural habitat. In case any endangered marine species are found, in case the area is identified as a critical habitat by other reasons, or in case any project activities are defined as significant conversion or degradation, the project needs to meet several requirements as mentioned below.

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[ADB’s SPS]

No project activity will be implemented in areas of critical habitat unless the following requirements are met:

(i) There are no measurable adverse impacts, or likelihood of such, on the critical habitat which could impair its high biodiversity value or the ability to function.

(ii) The project is not anticipated to lead to a reduction in the population of any recognized endangered or critically endangered species or a loss in area of the habitat concerned such that the persistence of a viable and representative host ecosystem is compromised.

(iii) Any lesser impacts are mitigated.

Whereas critical habitat is defined by SPS as follows:

Critical habitat is a subset of both natural and modified habitat that deserves particular attention. Critical habitat includes areas with high biodiversity value, including habitat required for the survival of critically endangered or endangered species; areas having special significance for endemic or restricted-range species; sites that are critical for the survival of migratory species; areas supporting globally significant concentrations or numbers of individuals of congregate species; areas with unique assemblages of species or that are associated with key evolu- tionary processes or provide key ecosystem services; and areas having biodiversity of significant social, economic, or cultural importance to local communities. Critical habitats include areas that are either legally protected or officially proposed for protection, such as areas that meet the criteria of the World Conservation Union classification, the Ramsar List of Wetlands of International Importance, and the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Or- ganization’s world natural heritage sites.

In an area of natural habitats, there must be no significant conversion or degradation, unless

(i) Alternatives are not available,

(ii) The overall benefits from the project substantially outweigh the environmental costs, and

(iii) Any conversion or degradation is appropriately mitigated.

Whereas significant conversion or degradation is defined by SPS as follows:

Significant conversion or degradation is (a) The elimination or severe diminution of the integ- rity of a habitat caused by a major, long-term change in land or water use; or (b) the modifica- tion of a habitat that substantially reduces the habitat’s ability to maintain viable populations of its native species.

The figure below shows a sample decision framework for proposed project, indicating different ‘no-go’ circumstances.

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Figure 3.38 Biodiversity Decision Framework for Project Siting The preliminary analysis for identifying “no-go” option is made in the following table according to biodiversity decision framework suggested by ADB. The exercise shows a certain probability that the project area would be identified as “no-go” options in terms of ADB SPS, because the project area would include the possible habitat of crucially endangered or endangered species and would be critical for survival of dugong as described in the table.

Table 3-45 Preliminary Analysis for “No-go” Circumstances No. Criterion Perspective Exercise to identify Remarks Result preliminary no-go project option C1 Is the site legally No for all Go to C2 The proposed development area is not officially protected or pro- project op- designated as protected area by Timor-Leste posed for protec- tions government, although a momentum for propos- tion? ing the Tasi Tulu marine protected area would be growing. C2 Is the site a criti- Possibly, yes If yes, go to C3. If The project will fall in critical habitat if the fu- cal habitat? no, go to another ture detailed study proves the project area de- flow chart. serves any of the following criteria. This preliminary 1) The project site is required for the sur- analysis will go to vival of critically endangered or endan- C3 to consider gered species. higher risk and 2) The project site has special signifi- more possible cases cance for endemic or restricted-rage for project imple- species. mentation. 3) The project site is critical for the survival of migratory species. 4) The project site supports globally significant concentrations or numbers of individuals of congregate species The project area would be categorized as critical habitat due to the following reason.

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Firstly, there is a certain probability that any critically endangered or endangered species would be identified in the project area, because the coastal line including the project development area is known as nesting ground of hawksbill turtle (critically endangered species) and green turtle (endangered species) according to information given by NGO. Secondly, the future EIA result would show the significance of high biodiversity value in the project area as listed in the above criteria. Specifically, dugong is categorized as vulnerable and full migrant species in IUCN Red List. C3 Will the project Yes or no If yes, the project It is impossible to determine yes or no in this reduce popula- will reserve as “no study before conducting the suitable field sur- tions of any rec- go”. vey programs and EIA. ognized critically If no, go to C4. endangered or endangered species? C4 Will there be Yes or no If yes, the project It is impossible to determine yes or no in this measurable ad- will reserve as “no study because it is before conducting EIA to verse impacts, or go”. If no, go to C5. predict adverse impacts. likelihood of such, on the habitat's ability to support its high value species and function?

C5 Will there be a Yes or no If yes, the project It is impossible to determine yes or no in this loss in habitat will reserve as “no study because it is before conducting environ- which will com- go”. mental assessment to predict any possible loss promise the per- If no, mitigate any in habitat. sistence of a via- remaining impacts, ble and repre- define measures in sentative host the Biological Ac- ecosystem? tion Plan(BAP) /Environmental Management Plan(EMP) and monitor. * The exercise to preliminary identify no-go project option follows the flow chart of Figure 3.38 Source: The Study Team

It proved that the first critical matter for environmental safeguard at this stage of study is whether the project area would include the critical habitat or not. Then the project option will be evaluated for the remaining criteria from C3 to C5 in the table above for detailed analysis with results of appropriate field surveys and EIA. The discussion for critical habitat will continue in 3.5.6.]

Inputs from stakeholders The study identified stakeholders who would be directly or indirectly affected by Dili airport upgrading project and communities in the surrounding of the airport. Meetings with those stakeholders were held in order to receive their opinions and relevant information on environmental issues in the course of the study. There are not large differences of stakeholders among project options. The seaside extension options will have more stakeholders related to natural conservation, while the riverside extension options will have more stakeholders related to noise-sensitive receptors. The following table summarizes key

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comments on environmental safeguard provided by the stakeholders, involved in the evaluation of project options. Table 3-46 Key Comments on Environmental Safeguard Provided by Stakeholders Name of Organization Key Comments on Environmental Safeguard

National authorities Secretary of State for the Environ- - They are concerned of too much noise impact by construction activi- ment* ties on species in the area, especially dugongs because dugongs do not like noise disturbance. - The Dili airport upgrading project should consider earthquake impact and take actions for soil stability. - The project needs to consider appropriate management of Comoro river basin and anticipate the flood impact. - The project should take adaptation measures to climate change for airport facilities. - The project should apply sustainable technology for airport facilities such as rainwater utilization system. - All stakeholders need to take account of positive impacts on country economic development. Department of Protected Area and - They pay attention to possible disturbance to Tasi Tolu protected Forestry, Ministry of Agriculture area. and Fisheries Department of Marine Protect - The department has to follow a political decision of airport upgrad- Area, Ministry of Agriculture and ing project. The project needs to minimize the impact on marine en- Fisheries vironment and conduct environmental surveys and impact assessment. Department of Water and Sanita- - The department addresses concerns on impact on groundwater level. tion, Ministry of Public Works - The project needs to check possible interference with on-going drainage improvement project. National Petroleum and Mineral - They will follow the directions to be made by inter-ministerial deci- Authority sion. Local administration authorities Interim representative of Dom - The express understanding of governmental programs on country de- Aleixo Sub-district velopment. Chief of surrounding villages (Suco (Specific comments on environmental issues were not provided in the Comoro, Suco Madohi and Suco meeting with each local government.) Bebonuk) Others Diving shop - Reclamation work would force dugongs out of their existing habitat of Tasi Tolu. Conservation International (NGO) - They object to reclamation work in Tasi Tolu because of poor control measures of soil and sediment in any construction work in Timor- Leste. - If the airport runway is constructed by jetty structure, enough buffer zone should be secured between construction area and dugong’s habitat. - The river diversion would also destroy turtle’s nesting ground of beach. * The environmental authorities in charge of specific area such as National Agency for Environmental Licensing (ANLA), Department of Biodiversity, Department of Pollution Control (DNCP) and Education Centre and Environmental Information (CEIA) are subsidiary organizations under Secretary of State for the Environment. Source: The Study Team

3.5.6 Evaluation of Project Options in Terms of Environmental Safeguard

Probability of critical habitat If the requirements of the SPS are not met in the project, the proposed project will be unlikely to be

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eligible for ADB financing. The results of preliminary environmental impact assessment revealed that the main point of selecting project options in terms of environmental safeguard is whether the project area will be considered as “critical habitat” or not as the first threshold of “no-go”. The criteria of critical habitat will be evaluated by identification of following species with high biodiversity value: i) critically endangered or endangered species, ii) endemic and/or restricted range species, iii) migratory species and iv) congregate species. In this study, the probability of those species is compared focusing on Tasi Tolu area. Table 3-47 Probability of Critical Habitat Species among Four Project Options Option Probability of critical habi- Reason tat Option A-1 Highest The project area includes quite large reclamation area of more than 20 ha. In addition, the developed area extends toward main habitat of dugongs. Option A-2 Second lowest The project area includes 3.3 ha reclaimed land. However, it is the second farthest from main habitat of dugongs. In addition, the coastal line in the project area has been already covered by revetment for existing airport runway or modified by construction work for private asset next to the airport. It is unlikely that the coastal line serves as nesting ground of critically endangered or endangered sea turtles. Option A-3 Second highest The project area includes 8.0 ha reclaimed land. It also includes the natural beach which may serve as nesting ground for critically endangered or endangered sea turtles. Option 2100 Lowest The project area includes 0.9 ha of reclaimed land in the sea. However, it is the farthest from main habitat of dugongs. In addition, the coastal line in the project area has been already covered by revetment for existing airport runway. It is unlikely that the coastal line serves as nesting ground for critically endangered or endangered sea turtles. Source: The Study Team

In addition, option A-1 could be considered as red-flagged project because quite a large development of more than 20 ha of natural sea has high probability of critical habitat.

In order to enable the project to be eligible for ADB financing, the next-stage feasibility study or at-least EIA study should confirm for the following survey questions through suitable field surveys, all around the year.

- Whether any critically endangered or endangered species such as hawksbill turtle and green turtle are identified in the project area.

- Whether the project area serves important ground for the survival of dugong in Tasi Tolu.

- Whether the project will not reduce populations of critically endangered or endangered species.

- Whether the Tasi Tolu area can maintain ecosystem’s ability to support high value species such as hawksbill turtle, green turtle and dugong as well as serve a function such as feeding and nesting ground etc.

Comparison of project options in terms of environmental safeguard The significance of impacts for each option was relatively scored from 1 to 5 (5 being the highest preferred option) based on the above evaluation result in the table below. The lower score presents the larger adverse impact while the higher score presents the smaller adverse impact. Since the impact on biodiversity also represents probability of critical habitat which is significant for comparing project options,

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the weight for biodiversity is twice of other factors.

Table 3-48 Comparison of Options (Environment Aspect) Option Biodiversity Noise and Vibration River flow and Ocean Current A large sea area (29 ha) with The noise and vibration impact No impact on Comoro River rich in marine life adjacent to on dugongs will be the largest flow. Tasi Tolu protected area will be in the construction and opera- reclaimed. The project will de- tion period because the dis- In Tasi Tolu, the presence of cline or disturb the habitat and tance between the reclamation reclaimed land would dramati- Option A-1 feeding ground of dugongs, site on the western side of the cally change the ocean cur- coral reef, habitat of sea turtles runway and the dugong’s habi- rent, which would cause the and other threatened species in tat will be closest, within hun- erosion of beach sand. The Tasi Tolu. dreds of meters. area of reclaimed land will be largest among other options. 1 1 2 The reclamation area is 5.1 ha, A certain residential and com- A total 1.6 km of Comoro which is the second smallest mercial area in the east-side River path will be diverted, development area in west side. extension area would have sig- that would also affect charac- nificant aircraft noise impact teristics of groundwater re- However, the option involves during the construction stage. charge and sedimentation the river diversion, which co- Option A-2 from upstream. vers 33 ha land for construction work. The river diversion would lose a part of nesting In Tasi Tolu, the presence of ground of sea turtles in Be- reclaimed land will change the bonuk beach. ocean current. 3 3 2 The 13 ha of reclamation work A certain residential and com- A total 1.6 km of Comoro will cause the second-largest mercial area would have sig- River way will be diverted adverse impact among op- nificant aircraft noise impact that would also affect charac- tions. during the construction stage, teristics of groundwater re- which will have impact more charge and sedimentation However, the option involves than A-2 option because the from upstream. the river diversion, which co- runway will reach further to Option A-3 vers 33 ha land of construction residential and commercial work. The river diversion area of Bebonuk. In Tasi Tolu, the presence of would lose a part of nesting reclaimed land will change the ground of critically endan- ocean current. gered or endangered sea turtles in Bebonuk beach. 2 2 2 Total development area is least The noise and vibration im- No impact on Comoro River among options, which will pact both on communities and flow. cause the least impact on bio- natural wildlife will be the Option diversity among other options. least. In Tasi Tolu, the presence of 2100 reclaimed land will change the ocean current. 4 4 4 *Each item is scored from 1(least preferred option) to 5 (most preferred option) Source: Study Team The sum of scores for each option with maximum weightage of 100 scores is shown in the table below. It is concluded that Option 2100 is considered as the highest scored option (most preferred option) in terms of environmental safeguard while Option A-1 is the least scored option (least preferred option).

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Table 3-49 Comparison of Options (Environment Aspect) River Flow and Biodiversity Noise and Vibration Total Option Ocean Current (Weight: 50 %) (Weight: 25 %) Score (Weight: 25%) Option A-1 10 5 10 25 Option A-2 30 15 10 55 Option A-3 20 10 10 40 Option 2100 40 20 20 80 Source: The Study Team

3.6 Preliminary Social Safeguard Assessment

3.6.1 General

The Study Team reviewed the result of the survey on social safeguards and assessed the risk of each option from the social point of view. It must be noted that data and information used for identification of affected people/houses is roughly captured by site observation of the sample areas and Google Earth images. Hence, it is not accurate but estimated. Adding to the cadastral map and data provided by the Direction of Land and Properties (prepared by the National Cadastral System = SNC) is announced as temporally and will be updated. the scale of the cadastral map is small, and the boundary line is drawn roughly as a whole; therefore, the land ownership, the number of plots and structures/houses is only estimate, too. Also, it is difficult to determine whether these are used for houses, sheds, or toilets even by observation from outside the residential plot. All detailed data must be collected by land survey and household interview at the F/S stage. However, all options, especially east side runway extension, are assessed to give significant impact because they will exploit highly populated area.

3.6.2 Land Acquisition and Involuntary Resettlement Framework of Resettlement Safeguards 1) ADB’s Involuntary Safeguard Policy ADB’s involuntary safeguard policy covers physical displacement (relocation, loss of residential land, or loss of shelter) and economic displacement (loss of land, assets, access to assets, income sources, or means of livelihoods), as a result of (i) involuntary acquisition of land, or (ii) involuntary restrictions on land use or on access to legally designated parks and protected areas. ADB’s requirement to borrower/client to consider following points for compensation, assistance and benefits for displaced persons.

a) Displaced persons in a project area could be three types: (i) persons with formal legal rights to land; (ii) persons who lost the land they occupy and who have no formal legal rights to such land, but who have claims to such lands that are recognized or recognizable under national laws; and (iii) persons who lost the land they occupy who have neither formal legal rights nor recognized or recognizable claims to such land. The involuntary resettlement requirements apply to all these three types.

b) The borrower/client will provide adequate and appropriate replacement land and structures or cash compensation at full replacement cost for lost land and structures.

c) Preference will be given to land-based resettlement strategies for displaced persons whose lively hoods are land-based. If land is not preferable option of the displaced persons, or sufficient land is not available at a reasonable price, non-land-based options should be provided in addition

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to cash compensation for land and other assets lost.

d) The rate of compensation for acquired housing, land and other assets will be calculated at full replacement costs.

e) For the case of physically displaced persons, the borrower/clients will provide (i) relocation assistance, (ii) transitional assistance, and (iii) opportunities to derive appropriate development benefit from the project.

f) In the case of economically displace persons, the borrower/clients will properly compensate for the loss of income or livelihood sources at full replacement cost. The proponent of the runway upgrading project must follow these requirements.

2) Framework for land acquisition or involuntary resettlement in Timor-Leste The Government of Timor-Leste drafted in 2013 three laws to regulate and administer land issues. They are: (i) The Special Regime for the Definition of Ownership of Real Estate; (ii) The Law on Expropria- tion; and (iii) The Law on Real Estate Financial Fund. Once they pass Parliament’s deliberation and are promulgated by the President, they will become effective laws to administrate land acquisition. The Council of Ministers approved the draft Law of Expropriation on 9th July 2013 and it was passed to the Parliament to deliberate: however, it has not been approved yet. Therefore, according to the Director of Land and Properties, Timor-Leste has no legal frame work of land acquisition and compensation.

As same as the laws related to land acquisition, the Government is drafting a law related to acquisition and compensation of buildings/houses affected by project. Draft law has not been approved by the parliament yet. Though there is no legal framework for compensation, Ministry of Public Works prepared a list of unit compensation price for house17. World Bank, ADB and JICA applied it to their projects and the government compensates for all loss of buildings and houses of the development projects of public organizations, i.e. the World Bank, ADB, JICA, Timorese Government and other donor agencies as well as project in the PPP scheme, and also development projects of private sector if land and/or structures/houses on it is state own. In case of private projects, according to the Head of Department of Projects of National Directorate of Buildings, compensation was paid so far for loss of privately owned buildings/houses on the private land. Buildings/houses constructed after the cut-off-date are not compensated but for some cases, private project owner compensated for privately owned houses on the private land. Table 3-50 Compensation for Buildings/Houses to be Affected by Projects Assets to be lost Public Organization PPP Private Sector by Project Donor Organi- Timorese Target land Target land and Target land Target land and zations (WB, Government and/or house house are pri- and/or house house are private ADB, JICA etc.) are state own vate own are state own own House for living Compensated compen- Compen- Compensated Compensated Depends on the purpose sated sated developer, but Building with li- so far compen- cense sated Building without license Houses/buildings Not compen- Not com- Not com- Not compen- Not compen- (compensated) constructed after sated pensated pensated sated sated cut-off date Source: Study Team based on the discussion with the Department of Projects, National Directorate of Buildings, Ministry of Public Works, Transport and Communications

17 Houses are categorized into permanent, semi-permanent and temporary and also type A, B and C by construction material.

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In the field of agriculture and forestry, Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries prepared a list of compensation price for crops and trees and ADB project applied this price set for road project.

One of the issues that the project proponent understand is that it needs long time to acquire private land and private houses. At the end of October 2019, ANATL acquired houses in 13 land plots located near to the south-eastern end of the present runway for their own project plan. It took about three years from social survey, measurement of target houses, negotiation to reach agreement18.

Methodology of assessment Land plots to be affected by the runway upgrading project are (i) strips located on both sides of the widened runway for all options, (ii) runway extended area west side (seaside), (iii) runway extended area east side (east of the Comoro River), (iv) area for diverted river, and, (iv) area for parallel taxiway. The number of land plots were identified within the supposed boundary of all options by counting plots on the cadastral maps provided by the Direction of Land, Properties and Cadastral Service, Ministry of Justice, and drawn on the Google Earth image by the National Cadastral System (SNC). The cadastral maps contain lands registered by both SNC and It Nia Rai (INR), a land registration project supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Problem is that (i) not all the land plots are registered, and it does contain about 8% of the supposed affected area; also, (ii) SNC noticed that the data is not final decision but temporary.

Then, the plots where structures or houses are constructed were counted. Adding to these registered plots, structures/houses in non-registered land plots inside the supposed project area were counted. Also, options of east side extension and both sides extension require river course diversion of the Comoro River, and the Study Team counted structures/houses inside the supposed diverted river area.

Since the scale of the map is small and the boundary line is drawn roughly as a whole, it is difficult to clearly identify whether the land plots located on or near to the runway boundary is inside or outside the project site, and whether it is a house or a group of houses. Also, it is difficult to determine whether they are used for houses, sheds, or toilets. Therefore, only an approximate number was indicated. All detailed data (exact number and purpose) must be updated through land survey and household interview at the F/S stage.

Affected population The number of houses/structures located in the runway widening area and extension area is roughly counted on the cadastral map provided by the Direction of Land and Properties.

The Study Team applied the average household size to the land plots having structures/houses to find the affected population on the condition that one structure/house in a land plot is for the residential purpose. As there is no information of land plots for the river diversion area and land needed for parallel taxiway area, the Study Team counted the number of structures/houses on the Google Earth image. About 30% of land plots found in the abovementioned cadastral maps have more than two structures/houses but the Study Team found at the site observation these plots have a house and other facilities like shed or temporary hut. The Study Team adjusted the number of structures/houses in the river diversion area and parallel taxiway area by supposing that 30% of structures/houses are non-living purpose. As a result, Option A-1 will affect 56 structures/houses while Option A-2 will affect 554 structures/houses mainly by the river diversion. However, detail household survey is needed at the F/S stage to collect accurate information.

As the average household size is 6.19 persons/HH in the Suco Madohi and 6.14 persons/HH in the Suco

18 Source: ANATL

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Bebonuk in 201519, affected population is counted from 347 (Option A-1) to 3,405 (Option A-2) persons, which exceeds the ADB threshold of significant impact set at 200 involuntary displaced persons. Thus, impact of the project is considered as significant for all options and classified into Category A.

Following table shows approximate number of affected structurers/houses and affected population by area composed of runway widening area, west side extension area, east side extension area, land for parallel taxiway, and land for river diversion.

Table 3-51 Approximate Number of Affected Structures/Houses and Affected Population

Explanation House/ Structure Affected Population Area

A-1 A-2 A-3 2100 A-1 A-2 A-3 2100 North of the existing runway; between 160 Runway m line northward from A Widening 30 36 36 24 186 223 223 149 center line of the exist- Area- North ing runway and airport land north boundary South of the existing runway; between 160 Runway m line from the center B Widening 10 10 10 12 62 62 62 74 line of the existing run- Area- South way and the airport land south boundary West Side West of the existing C Runway Ex- runway with width of 1 0 1 1 6 0 6 6 tension Area 320m East Side East of the existing run- D Runway Ex- way with width of 0 78 47 0 0 479 289 0 tension Area 320m Parallel Taxi- South of the Runway way Area – Widening Area- South; E Runway 12 25 26 58 74 155 161 359 area for parallel taxi- Widening way Area

Parallel Taxi- South of the West Side way Area – Runway Extension F West Side 3 0 0 1 19 0 0 6 Area; area for parallel Runway Ex- taxiway tension Area

Parallel Taxi- South of the East Side way Area – Runway Extension G East Side 0 45 25 0 0 276 154 0 Area; area for parallel Runway Ex- taxiway tension Area

River Diver- Area necessary for river H 0 360 336 0 0 2,210 2,063 0 sion Area diversion

Total 56 554 481 96 347 3,405 2,957 594 Note:

19 Source: Timor-Leste Population and Housing Census 2015

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(i) Runway widening area and west side extension area are in the Suco Madohi. Household size is 6.19 persons/HH. East side extension area and river diversion area are in the Suco Bebonuk. Household size is 6.14 person/HH. (ii) Based on the site observation in the river diversion area where cadastral data is not obtained, it is supposed that 30% of counted structures/houses are not for the living use but for shed or other purpose. For population estimate, the number of counted structures/houses is adjusted by multiplying by 1/1.3 to estimate the structures/houses for living purpose. Source: The Study Team based on the Direction of Land, Properties, and Cadastral Service

C D River B

F E G Comoro

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.39 Area Guide Diagram Affected land area At least 19.3 ha needs to acquire for the runway improving project. Necessary land area for options of east side extension (A-2) and both sides extension (A-3) is much greater than Option of west side extension (A-1) and Option 2100 because of river diversion. Following table shows roughly calculated land area of each option.

Table 3-52 Land Area in the Supposed Affected Area Unit: ha Runway Widening Runway Extension River Diver- Parallel Taxiway Area Option Area Area sion Area Total A B C D E F G H A-1 7.5 4.8 1.9 - 3.1 2.0 - - 19.3 A-2 8.7 5.8 0.5 13.1 3.1 0.2 2.5 32.6 66.5 A-3 9.5 5.8 0.9 6.9 3.1 0.4 0.6 32.5 59.7 2100 7.6 5.8 1.2 - 11.5 0 - - 26.1

Source: The Study Team Land dispute As land ownership is one of the sensitive issues in Timor-Leste, project proponent needs to take careful attention to it at the time of land acquisition. According to the information obtained from the Direction of Land and Properties (prepared by SNC), a total of 16 land plots in the runway widening area and extension area do not have decided land owner. SNC identifies that land ownership of these plots is under dispute especially between the state (government) and private owner and marks them “dispute exists”. It must be noted that, generally it takes time to solve disputes and it is difficult to negotiate and acquire disputed land plots. The Study Team did not collect information on the land title and dispute for the areas needed for river diversion area and parallel taxiway.

Table 3-53 Land in Dispute in the Widening and Extension Areas

Runway Widening Area Runway Extension Area % of Land in Option Total Dispute A B C D

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A-1 6 3 0 0 9 9.7% A-2 6 3 0 7 16 8.4%

A-3 6 3 0 6 15 9.8% 2100 6 3 0 0 9 11.3% Source: The Study Team based on the Cadastral information

3.6.3 Local Economy Economically displaced people There are several economic activities that the runway upgrading project will cause economic displacement in the runway widening area and extension area: such as, small business (shops) run by residents, sand/gravel excavators in the Comoro River, and fishermen engaged in fishing along the seashore and vegetable cultivation mainly in Aldeia Beto Tasi. On the other hand, the areas to be affected by the river diversion are more commercialized ones and shopping center, warehouse, and business buildings exist.

Impact of the runway upgrading on the economic activities As it is not easy to receive statistical data on the economic activity of the concerned area from Timorese Government or Dili Municipality, the Study Team tentatively assumed the scale and size of economic displacement. Based on the land observation at the sample plots that 20% of households of runway widening and extension area of each option run small shop and they will be affected by the loss of income by the Project. In the sea, north of the airport (Aldeia Beto Tasi), more than 150 fishermen are engaged in fisheries. However, the Department of Fishery, Ministry of Agriculture and Fishery, said that there is no fishing license for small coastal fisheries, and fishermen are moving their fishing point following the shoal of fish: therefore, they said, that fisheries are not directly affected by the runway upgrading project. Based on this information, economic displacement of fisheries does not seem significant. Also, vegetable cultivated field and palm plantation are located along the boundary of present runway in Aldeia Beto Tasi. The magnitude of the impact on the economic activities and amount of compensation shall be surveyed and calculated according to the real household income to be surveyed in the ‘population census’ or socio-economic survey at the F/S stage. In compliance with the ADB Safeguard Policy Statement, the project proponent (borrower/client of ADB loan) will promptly compensate for the loss of income or livelihood sources at full replacement cost, regardless of whether or not they are physically displaced.

It is assessed that all options will give impact on local economy of Aldeia Beto Tasi (Area A) because the project will acquire land used for small shops, vegetable gardens, and tree plantation. They also give impact on local economy of Aldeia Anin Fuic and Aldeia Loro Matan Beto, both located along the south boundary of present airport area (Area B and Area E), because the project will acquire land used for small shops and small scale of vegetable gardens, too. Options of east side extension (Option A-2) and westside extension (Option A-3) will give impact not only on small shops but also on large scale commercial businesses, particularly in the river diversion area.

Following table shows the tentative assessment of project impact on the local economy, however the scale of impact must be assessed at the F/S stage by household survey.

Table 3-54 Impact on Local Economy Runway Widening Runway Extension River Diversion Parallel Taxiway Area Option Area Area Area A B C D E F G H Low - Me- A-1 Medium Medium Low - Low - - dium

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Runway Widening Runway Extension River Diversion Parallel Taxiway Area Option Area Area Area A B C D E F G H Me- Low - Me- A-2 Medium Medium Low Medium Low dium- High dium high Me- Low - Me- A-3 Medium Medium Low Medium Low dium- High dium high Low - Me- 2100 Medium Medium Low - Low - - dium Source: The Study Team Local Community The area inside and adjacent to the proposed runway options is located in two Suco, namely Madohi (west of Comoro River) and Bebonuk (east of the river). The runway upgrading project will reduce the solidarity of Suco. Northern part of Suco Madohi located in the north of the runway is linked to the southern part of the Suco by a road passing just aside the end of the present runway. Runway widening area (Area A, B) and parallel taxiway construction area (Area E) will cut the road and local people of northern area will lose accessibility to the south. This impact is caused by all options. Also, Aldeia of northern part of Suco Bebonuk will partially lose the access to the south in the options of east side and both sides extension (Option A-2, Option A-3), but the magnitude of impact differs per option (location of eastern end of the runway and length and form of RESA).

The supposed scale of impact is summarized below.

Table 3-55 Impact on Solidarity of Community Runway Widening Parallel Taxiway Area River Diversion Runway Extension Area Option Area Area A B C D E F G H A-1 High High Low - High Low - - A-2 High High Low Medium High Low Medium Medium-high A-3 High High Low Medium High Low Medium Medium-high 2100 High High Low - High Low - - Source: The Study Team Cultural, Religious, and Social Infrastructures There are no cultural heritages in the supposed runway extension area and river diversion area. However, facilities or infrastructures of culturally, religiously, and socially importance are found there or around the area.

Facilities and infrastructures inside the supposed runway extension area are as follows: a sacred tree and a cemetery on the opposite site of the end of the current runway to be affected by riverside and both side options (Option A-2, Option A-3). For the area around the current runway, a school located just near to the runway end will be affected by all options. However, there is a need for a detailed land survey to determine if these exist inside or outside the project site.

More significant impact of the runway extension is found in the river diversion areas (related to Option A-2, Option A-3). A lot of cultural, religious, and social facilities and infrastructures are located in or adjacent there: such as, three are more chapels, a mosque, and a kindergarten school.

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: Road connecting north and south of the runway. : Office of Suco Madohi Note: Yellow marks show sacred tree, chapels, mosque, schools, and embassies. Source: The Study Team using Google Earth Figure 3.40 Cultural, Religious and Social Infrastructures

Table 3-56 Impact on Cultural, Religious, and Social Infrastructures Runway Widening River Diver- Runway Extension Area Parallel Taxiway Area Option Area sion Area A B C D E F G H A-1 Low Low Low - Low Low - - Low-me- A-2 Low Low Low Medium Low Low Medium-high dium Low-me- A-3 Low Low Low Medium Low Low Medium-high dium 2100 Low Low Low - Low Low - - Source: The Study Team

3.6.4 Comparison of Options for Social Safeguards From the viewpoint of social safeguards, the development options described above are compared and simply evaluated as shown in Table 3-57.

Table 3-57 Comparison of Options (Social Safeguard Aspect) Option Physical Displacement Economic Displacement Impact on Local Community  Affected people: 325  Tens of small shops must be  Community north of the current runway persons relocated will lose access road to the south. Option A-1  Plots in dispute (ex-  Loss of vegetable cultiva-  A school located adjacent to the current (West side, cept parallel taxiway tion and palm tree planta- runway possibly be included in the ex- RW2,500 m) area): 9 tion tended runway. 4 4 2

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Option Physical Displacement Economic Displacement Impact on Local Community

 Tens of small shops must be  Community north of the current runway relocated will lose road to the south.  Affected people:  Loss of vegetable cultiva-  A school located adjacent to the current 2,989 persons tion and palm tree planta- runway will be included in the extended Option A-2  Plots in dispute (ex- tion runway. (East side, cept parallel taxiway  Business activities (shop-  The supposed runway area possibly in- RW2,500 m) area): 16 ping center, company etc.) cludes the sacred tree and cemetery. must be relocated by river  Supposed river diversion area possibly in- diversion. cludes chapels and schools. 1 2 2

 Tens of small shops must  Community north of the current runway be relocated will lose access road to the south.  Affected people:  Loss of vegetable cultiva-  A school located adjacent to the current 2,662 persons tion and palm tree planta- runway will be included in the extended Option A-3  Plots in dispute (ex- tion runway. (Both sides, cept parallel taxiway  Business activities (shop-  The supposed runway area possibly in- RW2,500 m) area): 15 ping center, company etc.) cludes the sacred tree and cemetery. must be relocated by river  Supposed river diversion area possibly in- diversion. cludes chapels and schools. 1 2 2  Affected people: 510  Tens of small shops must  Community north of the current runway persons be relocated will lose access road to the south. Option 2100  Plots in dispute (ex-  Loss of vegetable cultiva-  A school located adjacent to the current (RW2,100m) cept parallel taxiway tion and palm tree planta- runway possibly be included in the ex- area): 8 tion tended runway. 4 4 2 *Each item is scored in 1 ~ 5. (i) For physical displacement, total of affected people and plots in dispute is: <200 - score 5, < 600 = score 4, <1,000 = score 3, <2,000 = score 4, and 2,001 = score 1 (ii) For economic displacement, and local community: supposed magnitude and possibility of alternatives Source: The Study Team ≤

Based on the above Table 3-57, the scoring of each option with weightage of maximum 100 scores is summarized as shown in Table 3-58. Table 3-58 Summary Comparison of Options (Social Safeguard Aspect) Physical Displace- Economic Displace- Impact on Local Option ment ment Community Total Score (weight 37.5%) (weight 37.5%) (weight 25%) Option A-1 30 30 10 70.0 (West side, RW2,500 m) Option A-2 7.5 15 10 32.5 (East side, RW2,500 m) Option A-3 7.5 15 10 32.5 (Both sides, RW2,500 m) Option 2100 30 30 10 70.0 (RW2,100 m) Source: The Study Team Based on the above comparison and evaluation, Option A-1and Option 2100 is the highest scored option from the social safeguard aspect.

3.7 Recommendation The technical aspects, environmental safeguards aspect and social safeguards aspect are compared by

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professional viewpoints and summarized as shown in table below.

Table 3-59 Comparison of Options Environmental Social Safeguard Option Technical Aspect Comprehensive Result Safeguard Aspect Aspect Option A-1 (West side, RW2,500 m) C (60) C (59) A (70) C Option A-2 (East side, RW2,500 m) A (94) B (65) C (32.5) B Option A-3 (Both sides, RW2,500 m) B (76) B (62) C (32.5) B Option 2100 A A A A Source: The Study Team Based on the above comparison and evaluation, Option A-2 and A-3 are the recommended option from the viewpoint of the Study Team.

However, this is preliminary evaluation result for reference. Because, the preferred options will be assessed in the workshop by AHP method and final output will be incorporated in the Final Option Report.

3.8 Updated Risk Register Generally speaking, loan projects have a wide range of risks of non-recovering investment, including commercial risks, political risks, and force majeure or acts of God.

For the preliminary assessment of the runway upgrading, the Study Team identified in the Inception Report the risks that give different impacts on each of available options and registered the following risks at the draft risk register. These are: (i) technical risk (applied technology and difficulty), (ii) commencement risk (land acquisition), (iii) environmental risk, and (iv) operation and maintenance risk. Among these, the Study Team focused on (ii) and (iii) at the survey.

Table 3-60 Upgrading Risk Registration No. Risk Evaluation Criteria Risk Updating

1 Land acquisition  Approximate number of  All options need involuntary resettlement of and involuntary significantly affected peo- more than 200 persons inside the supposed resettlement ple including indigenous project site; thus, all options have significant people impacts according to the ADB Safeguard Pol- - 200 or more  serious; icy Statement. The project owner must take a - 10 to 199  moderate; cautious attitude toward landowners. Less than 9  low  All options have land dispute, mainly be-  Existence of ongoing land tween the state (government) and private disputes owner. These lands are registered as ‘owner  serious to moderate is state or private person’ on the cadastral  Other outstanding land is- map provided by the SNC. The number is sues higher in the area east of the Comoro River, but runway widening area also has disputed  serious to moderate lands. It is difficult to start land acquisition before all disputes are resolved and land owner is definitely decided.  According to the Direction of Land and Prop- erties, there are no laws and regulations

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No. Risk Evaluation Criteria Risk Updating providing compensation for land and it is not needed to compensate. However, as an ADB project, the runway upgrading project shall comply with the Safe- guard Policy Statement, which prescribes that the project proponent will provide adequate and appropriate replacement land and structures or cash compensation. Also, it is difficult to acquire private land without compensation and the project proponent shall prepare the budget for compensation.  At the AHP workshop in July 2019, physical displacement was identified as the most important criterion among option selections. Stakeholders understand importance and difficulty of land acquisition and resettlement. 2 Local economy Local economy  It was found that about 20% of structures/  Approximate number of af- houses are shops (kiosks) at the site observa- fected shops and business; tion in the supposed runway extension areas.  Degree of supposed loss by  Business loss is assumed much higher in the the runway extension for area east of the Comoro River, because this production activities (busi- area is more populated and nearer to the trunk ness, fishery, sand/gravel road, and land is used for commercial/ busi- excavation, shop) of the af- ness purpose. fected area. If inhabitants of  The degree of loss of livelihood and business this area lose come reduce was not identified in detail so far. It should be sustainability of inhabit- investigated house to house, business to busi- ant’s livelihood, it is con- ness, at the Population Census in a part of the sidered serious RAP at the F/S stage. 3 Local community Community network  Access of the Aldeia Beto Tasi (north of the ex-  Lose solidarity  serious; isting runway) will lose access road to the  Reduce vitality  moder- southern part and main road. ate;  In the area east of the Comoro River has the  Not so affected  low risk that community will lose accessibility between north and south of the extended runway even though the magnitude differs by option. 4 Cultural, religious Number and value of affected  A sacred banyan tree exists at the riverside of and social infra- resources Comoro River on the Bebonuk side. Detailed structures  Symbol of local culture  land survey is needed if it is inside, online or serious to moderate outside the project area.  Sacred places  serious to  A cemetery exists by the side of the banyan moderate tree. Detailed land survey is needed, too.  Number of social infrastruc-  A school exists near to the end of the existing tures runway. It will be affected by all options. 5 Environmental Magnitude of negative environ- Following issues are identified as significant at mental impacts the environmental survey.

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No. Risk Evaluation Criteria Risk Updating

 Marine and coast biodiversity will be affected.  Coastal topography and natural condition will be affected.  River diversion planed in Option A-2 and Option A-3 will seriously affect local hydrology.  Ocean current in Tasi Tolu area will be changed by jetty reclamation.  All options will be affected surrounding residential area by aircraft noise. Source: The Study Team

Briefly, options of east side and both side extension have more risks from a social point of view because the supposed extension runway will be developed in the residential area, and one of the serious risks is that the river will be diverted through the densely populated commercial area. The project proponent must have careful negotiation with all affected people and also prepare compensation. However, the runway expansion also gives negative impact on surrounding communities in terms of social safeguards (physical and economic displacement) and environmental safeguards (degradation of marine and terrestrial fauna and flora, hydrology and ocean current, nose). Details of the environmental and social impact are mentioned in the following sections.

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3.9 Preferred Option The Government of Timor-Leste decided the future airport layout plan on 23rd October based on the reviewed IFC M/P toward west side extension of runway. Therefore, ADB has informed on the applica- tion of IFC M/P as the preferred option for airport development. The airport layout plan of IFC M/P is as shows below.

Source: IFC Figure 3.41 IFC Preferred Airport Layout Plan However, parallel taxiway of west side configuration is slightly modified based on the standards of international airports. The preferred airport layout plan shows below.

Source: The Study Team Figure 3.42 Preferred Airport Layout Plan

End of the main report of Final Options Report

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Appendix

Preliminary Assessment for Dili Airport Runway Upgrading Project Final Options Report

Appendix-1 Official Letter

1-1: 3,000 m Runway length

1-2: ANATL airport development plan

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Appendix 1 Official Letter

1-1: 3,000 m Runway length

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1-2: ANATL airport development plan

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