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Come Dine with Us Bars, Restaurants and Casual Dining Update

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Come Dine with Us Bars, Restaurants and Casual Dining Update Come dine with us Bars, restaurants and casual dining update As the UK economy continues to recover from the post-financial crisis recession, consumer confidence has picked up, supporting discretionary spending on leisure activities, including dining out. Alongside this cyclical trend, structural changes in consumers’ eating habits are also reshaping the bars, restaurants and casual dining industry and are driving sector transaction activity. The new norm The changing face of the high street In our time poor and cash rich society eating out is the new As a result of these changes in eating habits and in norm. Formerly considered a luxury and occasion-led, combination with the trend towards on-line shopping, the for many eating out has become part of daily life, with what face of the high street is changing. Many high street general was perhaps a monthly occurrence now more likely to be a retailers have lost out to internet shopping, which has created weekly one at least. vacant retail space. Landlords have been prepared to offer A broader range of people and age groups are now deals on leases and more casual dining businesses have been choosing to dine out, displacing eating at home. Consumers moving onto the high street. are more adventurous in their approach to food than in the At the same time, the supermarkets are capitalising on the past, and have realised that it is often easier and cheaper to try shift to online and convenience shopping by building out a new taste experience in a restaurant than at home. their smaller high street outlets. In a recent development, The multicultural nature of British society has been one of some supermarket retailers are combining the two trends. the factors driving the increased diversity of national cuisines In August, 99p Stores introduced a new coffee and bakery available to UK consumers. This trend towards greater concept in its 250th store, which it opened in Northampton. diversity is most apparent in the UK’s major metropolitan The concept will be rolled out across a number of the centres, such as London, Leeds and Manchester. In addition company’s stores, selling a range of baguettes and pastries and to the greater variety of cuisines available, dining patterns offering customers a coffee and pastry deal. have also changed – with dawn-to-dusk dining more The trend for growth in casual dining looks set to commonly available – and the range of price points wider. continue, as consumers’ incomes begin to increase and desires Inexpensive dining has broadened out beyond the traditional for different dining experiences expand, leading to a rising chicken, burger and pizza fast-food chains. number of dining occasions. This environment will encourage future transaction activity – both buy and build and also potentially consolidation. In 2013, the UK restaurant market was worth £16.4 billion in revenue terms, according to Allegra Strategies/Grant Thornton estimates and is expected to grow by £5.6 billion over the next five years. Announced M&A activity in pubs and resturnants – quarterly 25 1,000 20 Level of activity on the up No of 15 Deals These broad, structural trends in consumer behaviour are underpinning M&A activity in the sector and the recovery from the 10 Values (£m) recessionNo. of Deals is continuing with year-on-year increases in deal volumes. Recently, buyers have paid robust valuation multiples, 5 reflecting the demand for quality assets which are highly scalable. For transaction multiples, the overall of Deals (£m) Value adjusted average from 2012 to the0 present is 10.7x trailing EBITDA, which compares with trading multiples of c.8.4x – 013.6x trailing EBITDA for similar quoted companies. Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Announced M&A activity in pubs and restaurants – annually 80 1,800 70 1,600 60 1,400 1,200 50 No of 1,000 No. of Deals Deals 40 800 Values 30 600 (£million) Value of Deals (£million) Value 20 400 10 200 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* *correct as at 30 September 2014 The prominence of private equity Private equity and overseas buyers alike are also prepared The predominant investment theme evident from recent to take on distressed businesses. In April, Enact, a fund M&A is the active role of private equity. Demand for quality recently launched by private equity group Endless, bought assets has been strong and private equity has been reinforcing the West Cornwall Pasty Company brand and 35 of its its presence in the restaurant space in recent years. Private outlets from its administrator. On a similar theme, last equity groups have been particularly active in roll-out August Kuwait’s Kout Food Group bought the struggling opportunities in the casual dining and restaurant sectors. In Little Chef roadside restaurant group for £15 million. Kout April, for example, the restaurant group Gusto Restaurants already runs more than 40 Burger King and KFC outlets in was backed in a £10 million MBO by Palatine Private Equity the UK and has exclusive franchises in Kuwait for and in July, Risk Capital Partners invested in InnBrighton, Burger King. which will be renamed Laine Pub Company. Last year, The wide range of different cuisines and restaurant Graphite Capital completed the management buyout of concepts on offer in the UK, particularly in the major cities, London-based steak restaurant group Hawksmoor which continues to attract the interest of overseas buyers looking is rolling out a second brand named Foxlow, while Close to import those formats into their domestic market. In July, Brothers Private Equity bought Cote Brasserie for £100 for example, Gondola Group sold the PizzaExpress chain million last September. to China-based private equity firm Hony Capital for £900 Earlier transactions on this same theme include Bowmark million. Gondola also owns ASK, Zizzi and recently sold Capital’s backing of the MBO of London restaurant group hamburger chain Byron to Hutton Collins. Drake & Morgan and Piper Private Equity’s investment in Caribbean restaurant chain Turtle Bay. Also of interest are the following themes: moving to the AIM market. It also announced that it had acquired Greek restaurant chain ‘The Real Greek’ for The experimental corporate buyer £13.9 million. Corporates are continuing to roll out their formats and Whilst there was strong initial momentum early in 2014, are adopting alternative versions of established models – an increased air of caution has fallen over the markets including all-day dining and express sites. Companies are also recently as several IPOs (including that of Aldermore, Fat showing appetite to be more experimental with acquisitions Face and Virgin Money) have faltered in increasingly volatile as they seek to diversify, although in some instances it is too conditions as a result of wider global macro-economic and early to say whether these acquisitions will form a permanent political sentiment. part of their portfolios. 2014, for example, saw brewing and pub group Fuller, Rising appetite for debt finance Smith & Turner expand into the restaurant sector with the Recent debt market activity points to increased bank and purchase of a 51% stake in The Stable, a craft cider and pizza capital market appetite for leverage, with a number of restaurant business. They also introduced their own coffee businesses turning to the bond markets for funding. The most brand, Brewer Street a few years ago and recently opened notable was 2013’s issue by Soho House, the London private their first stand-alone coffee shop. Tesco meanwhile, owns member’s club, of a high yield bond for £115 million despite a significant minority stake in coffee shop chain Harris and having only £9 million EBITDA. The issue was unusual Hoole and in 2013 acquired restaurant chain Giraffe for because £200 million has traditionally been considered the £48.6 million. minimum size for a bond to ensure liquidity in the secondary Aggregators of dining out experiences have also shown market and £50 million the minimum EBITDA to avoid interest in UK assets. At the start of September Dutch excessive leverage. company DIDIX announced the acquisition of tastecard, At the other end of the spectrum, crowdfunding has also the UK’s number one Diners’ Club, which has over 1.5 been used as a source of funding in the casual dining sector. million members and 7,000 partner restaurants. DIDIX is a In June, London-based Mexican chain Chilango turned to its market leader in gift cards, leisure promotions and restaurant customers in an attempt to raise £1m to finance the opening discount diners’ clubs in the Netherlands, the UK and of three new restaurants. To date Chilango’s ‘Burrito Bond’ Belgium. Earlier this year DIDIX also bought subscription- has raised more than £2 million with the offer of free burritos based dining club Gourmet Society and Restaurant Choice, a for investors being used to sweeten the deal. restaurant gift voucher scheme. Deal activity set to continue Recent IPO activity The casual dining industry is populated by a large number Patisserie Valerie’s successful initial public offering (IPO) in of small operators, which can grow very quickly if they the summer demonstrates that there has been appetite for the are positioned correctly and are able to secure the correct restaurant sector in the UK, which has traditionally been low funding. These successful businesses can rapidly become compared to the US public markets (the US markets having challengers to the more established chains. We believe that more than three times as many listed restaurant entities than there will continue to be a significant number of transactions the UK).
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