GLOBSEC Trends 2021

Central & Eastern Europe one year into the pandemic www.globsec.org JUNE 2021 please For fullcreditsandmethodology, at GLOBSEC. Democracy &Resilience Centre Miroslava Sawirisfrom Klingová, DanielMiloand Dominika Hajdu,Katarína This reportwaswrittenby SEE PAGE 78 78 76 70 64 48 42 36 30 26 18 12 08 07 04 Credits &methodology Connecting the dots Media Democracy COVID-19 NATO European Union European partners China Superpowers East-West Country highlights Key findings Foreword

Contents | | Against a backdrop where many expected to considerably shape the are contemplating the identity of future. Central Europe, including whether Foreword Foreword one distinct regional populace exists It is not difficult to conclude that at all, the GLOBSEC Trends Report both liberals and illiberals appear to of 2021 underlines the fact that the be living in the world of yesterday. Does region appears more homogeneous Liberals have been late to take note from the outside than from within. that societies have simultaneously Central External perspectives indeed often experienced the pandemic as overlook important cultural, political nationalist and European moments. and economic differences and overly Populations, furthermore, are not Europe emphasise the shared communist past divided primarily around the pro of the region. The distinctions between and anti-European axes that some still exist? countries, however, are significant. The imagine to be in place. To be pro- Czech Republic, by way of illustration, European is not enough – societies Is there ranks as one of the most secular rather expect their governments to be places in Europe even as Poland effective in defending what they see Central remains one of the most religious as the national interest. Illiberals, for countries on the continent. The region their part, have neglected that even is economically and historically diverse nationalists recognise the importance European too. of the EU for preserving the relevance of Europe in global politics. Brussels public Notwithstanding these differences, the is not the enemy anymore - even for Central and Eastern European region nationalists. opinion? is not without any shared identity. According to the survey, a majority, for The most alarming finding from the example, are uncomfortable merely survey concerns the erosion of trust aligning with the West, with the region in democratic institutions wrought by instead seeking to carve out a unique the pandemic. Democratic governance niche. The notion that the region is to has become synonymous with the serve as a bridge between the East management of mistrust. These and West is not new. And even though “viruses” of our societies - mistrust it may not be reassuring or inspiring, and conspiracy thinking – brought populaces in the region are content on by the pandemic could ultimately with pursuing this role at the moment. exert more deleterious effects than COVID-19 itself. This “bridge” identity, at least partially, explains CEE’s complicated In seeking to adapt to the world we relationship towards key Western are entering, our political and business institutions. Although membership leaders must be aware that Central in the EU and/or NATO remains European societies are emerging undisputed, CEE still perceives disoriented and confused from the these institutions as external entities. pandemic. It is not merely that we Societies believe it is in their interest lack answers but it is also uncertain to stick to these organisations but if we are asking ourselves the right refrain from seeking ownership of questions. To be a tenant of the the house (a rental rather appears to West, in other words, creates its own suffice). But a tenant mentality risks vulnerabilities. becoming a problem if the West and East (Russia and China) engage in fierce competition, a development that Ivan Krastev appears all the more likely. Chairman, Centre for Liberal The survey findings entail that Central Studies, Sofia Europeans live in a world that sees Permanent fellow at the Institute them place Russia as far to the East as for Human Sciences, Vienna the eye can see and the United States, conversely, to the far West. China, meanwhile, finds itself left off the map entirely. But it is, however, no longer GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC Foreword a small world after all. Geopolitical confrontation between the United 4 States and China, in fact, can be 5 | | The COVID-19 pandemic and its 1 3 5 8 Key findings Key Key findings Key ramifications continue Germany China’s human While the Democracy trumps to reverberate across – a beacon rights violations willingness of authoritarianism - Central and Eastern of stability in a are on the radar in people to get for now Europe, influencing time of distress CEE vaccinated has increased, A total of 8 in 10 people in the public attitudes on Against the backdrop of More than 50% of respondents some COVID-19 region consider democracy pandemic-fuelled uncertainty, in every surveyed country, conspiracy – defined as a system based geopolitical topics, Germany has emerged as apart from Bulgaria, believe on equality, human rights and world leaders (such as the most important strategic that human rights are being theories still freedoms and rule of law – to partner in the region according systematically violated in China. persist be good for their respective perceptions of friends to 57% of respondents. Berlin countries. Yet support for and foes) and support is followed at a distance by Acceptance of the narrative autocratic governance has Washington (35%) and Moscow asserting that public increased in five countries for democracy. (23%). Apart from Poland and authorities are overestimating and boasts a notable 42% Romania, where the US was 4 the number of COVID-19 cases average favourability score in more preferred, Germany was amounts to at least 20% of the the region. Our research shows the most commonly selected population in every surveyed that societies value strategic partner in every Russian and country. surveyed country. Chinese vaccine stability and credible diplomacy efforts sources during fail to garner 9 crises. As vaccination public support 6 Democracy does campaigns ramp Russian and Chinese vaccine 2 not equate to up and Central and diplomacy has been met National liberal democracy with only limited success, governments Eastern European EU and with merely 5% of people perceived as The identification of NATO remain in the region expressing a societies gradually democracy as an ideal overwhelmingly preference for the Sputnik incompetent governance system has return to pre-COVID-19 popular across the V vaccine over alternatives plummeted by 15 percentage and less than 1% for Chinese In 8 of 10 countries, ­a majority routines, this report CEE region points and seen its buy-in fade vaccines like Sinovac. of respondents judge their in 9 of 10 surveyed countries takes stock of the Support for EU membership, governments to have handled when the word “liberal” is favoured by 78% of the pandemic badly. The pandemic and its added before democracy. This respondents on average dissatisfaction has risen in reflects a significant backlash implications on public across the region, remains most countries since our poll in against liberalism as a term in resolute. Attitudes towards October 2020. trust and attitudes on many parts of the region. NATO membership are also pressing issues. Key largely positive, with 73% of highlights from the respondents, on average, affirming their backing. survey include: 7 10 Trust in medical and scientific Support for more authorities stringent social underpins vaccine media regulations interest gains momentum in CEE Whereas only 53% of CEE respondents, on average, More than 50% of respondents are interested in getting the in 7 out of 10 countries agree COVID-19 jab, this figure grows that social media should be to 63% among those who trust more strictly regulated, yet leading medical experts and considerable differences GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC Key findings Key scientists. between countries are present.

6 7 | | Austria Estonia Latvia Lithuania Country highlights Country highlights

WEST BALTICS BALTICS BALTICS COVID-19 Estonia indicates Latvia Lithuania vaccination greatest level supportive exhibits most potential highest of trust in of the EU but pronounced in Austria mainstream unfamiliar with pro-Western media Ursula von der leanings in Vaccine interest potential, Leyen region among surveyed countries, Estonia enjoys the distinction of is greatest in Austria (81%), being the only surveyed country Respondents in Latvia are Despite robust support for with the vast majority either classified as home to a good among the most ardent EU membership, only 31% of already received the jab or media environment, according proponents of EU membership, Lithuanians, the least in the planning to get vaccinated. to the World Press Freedom with 84% expressing their region, believe the EU should This willingness to get Index. The GLOBSEC Trends support for remaining in the bloc. be responsible for negotiating vaccinated can be attributed, survey confirmed this finding, Yet 41% of respondents in the COVID-19 vaccine purchases. in part, to the relatively robust with Estonia being one of only country are unable to express trust that Austrians express two countries in the region an opinion regarding Ursula von Lithuania is the most strident towards medical authorities and experiencing an increase in der Leyen. proponent of a Western pharmaceutical companies. media trust (now at 62%) in geopolitical orientation in the 2021. Of all surveyed countries, US There is also a rather low level region, with 47% preferring to of awareness concerning China position their country in the President Joe Biden is the Alongside Poland and Lithuania, in Latvia - 23% are undecided West. most popular in Austria, with respondents in Estonia affiliate on whether the Chinese regime 76% perceiving him positively. themselves, geopolitically, most could be an inspiration for their European leaders are popular closely to the West (44% believe country. in Lithuania - Angela Merkel Austria also has a strong Estonia should be part of the is viewed positively by 72% of awareness of human rights West). violations in China, with 90% Respondents in Latvia are most respondents, Emmanuel Macron inclined, among Baltic countries, by 61% and Ursula von der Leyen of respondents believing 49% of respondents in Estonia to believe conspiracy theories by 52%. that human rights are being perceive the US as the most concerning COVID-19. systematically violated there. important strategic partner for Lithuanians, however, are the country, with 52% rating US A majority in Latvia, in addition relatively sceptical of democracy, The regulation of digital President Joe Biden favourably. platforms is gaining traction to Bulgaria and Romania, with only 70% agreeing that believe that having a strong democracy is a good system in Austria, with nearly three Estonians are the second least and decisive leader who need for their country, the lowest in quarters of the population likely, following Austria, to fall not bother with parliament the region. backing more stringent victim to conspiracy theories or elections is good for their regulations on social media concerning COVID-19, with only country. companies like Facebook, 16% in Estonia, on average, Instagram and YouTube. accepting these narratives1. GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC Country highlights

8 9 | | Czechia Poland Hungary Slovakia Bulgaria Romania Country highlights Country highlights

VISEGRAD FOUR VISEGRAD FOUR VISEGRAD FOUR VISEGRAD FOUR BLACK SEA BLACK SEA Authoritarian Poland remains Mainstream Slovakia, a place Vladimir Putin COVID-19 leadership has pro-Western but media distrust of paradoxes most popular scepticism little appeal in trust crumbles sharpest in in Bulgaria remains Czechia Hungary Slovakia holds the distinction widespread Poles rank as the most fervent of being the only country in the A total of 70% of respondents proponents of a Western region to record rising support in Bulgaria perceive Vladimir across Romania Among surveyed countries, Mainstream media distrust, geopolitical orientation in the for a pro-Western orientation, Putin favourably, the highest Czechia has the least appetite among the survey group, is region (46%) and similarly most including EU and NATO share by far, in the survey group. Romania also finds itself for authoritarian governance, greatest in Hungary, having prioritise strategic partnership membership, since 2017. among the most pro-Western with only 27% agreeing that increased substantially from with the US (54%). 62% of Bulgarians also believe countries in the region, having a strong and decisive 55% to 69% over the past year. Moscow still gains a sympathetic that a strong autocratic leader reflected in the population’s leader who need not bother with These pro-Washington leanings audience among Slovaks could be good for their country robust backing for a Western parliament or elections is good 30% of Hungarians are inclined are reflected in Polish attitudes though, with 47% identifying - also the most in the region. geopolitical orientation (43%), for their country. to identify China as a strategic towards Moscow and Beijing. Russia as a strategic partner identification of the US as a partner – also the most in the Only 12% perceive Vladimir and 55% perceiving Vladimir Awareness of human rights strategic partner (47%) and Though a sizeable majority region. Putin favourably, with 75% Putin positively. violations in China is muted in favourable opinions of Joe Biden of Czechs, 66%, back EU believing Alexei Navalny Bulgaria, evidenced by only 35% (58%). membership, the country Hungarian support for liberal should not have been Though 75% of respondents of respondents agreeing that is, nevertheless, the most democracy, measured at 59%, imprisoned following his judge the Slovak government Beijing is committing systemic That said, 30% of Romanians, Eurosceptic member state in fares second worst among poisoning. Only 8%, meanwhile, to have handled the COVID-19 human rights violations, lowest the greatest share in the region, the survey group. surveyed countries. If “liberal” consider China to be a role pandemic badly, 68%, the among surveyed countries. also recognise China as a is omitted from democracy, model. most in the region, believe it source of inspiration for their Czech respondents are however, democracy backing should be tasked with vaccine COVID-19 conspiracy theory country. particularly wary of Beijing’s rises to 85%. 89% of Poles would vote to procurement negotiations rather buy-in, meanwhile, is prevalent growing influence, with 87% remain in NATO if a referendum than the EU. throughout Bulgaria - 17% of Support for NATO membership disagreeing that the Chinese A total of 54% of Hungarians were to occur, reinforcing respondents agree with the remains robust (77%), but the regime could be an inspiration believe their government Poland’s long-standing And while 19% of Slovak assertion that the virus is fake willingness to leave the bloc has to Czechia. handled the COVID-19 vehement backing of the respondents believe that and over 40% think that the increased from 6% in 2017 to pandemic well by the time of organisation. Chinese regime could be an pandemic was an operation 19% in 2021. Distrust towards mainstream the survey. Hungary is one of inspiration for their country, planned by hidden forces media is very high in Czechia, only two countries, alongside Poles are also least inclined 88% consider democracy based and that its government is Romanians, meanwhile, rank as 64% of adult respondents Austria, where majority of towards believing COVID-19 on equality, human rights and overestimating the number of as the greatest COVID-19 distrust media, which respondents positively evaluate related conspiracy theories freedoms and rule of law to be a COVID-19 cases. sceptics, with 30% believing represents an increase of five their government in this respect. among V4 countries but express good system for their country. that COVID-19 is a fake and percentage points from 2020. the lowest levels of trust in 47% inclined to think that medical authorities (66%) and authorities are overreporting pharmaceutical companies that COVID-19 case numbers. The produce the vaccines (52%). survey findings further indicate low levels of vaccine interest in the country and muted trust of scientific authorities (40%) and pharmaceutical companies. GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC

10 11 1 The Central and Eastern 1

| European aspiration to “be like | the West” has lost its allure and is not so important anymore East-West East-West according to years of GLOBSEC Trends polling2. While the West, with its higher wages and living standards, is still seen as economically superior, Central and Eastern European societies are generally inclined towards maintaining their own identities. As data from the region (including Austria) underscores, these countries are embracing what can be labelled as a “Central-Western” approach, which should rather be understood as a necessity to define one’s own path and overcome socio-historical complexes concerning great power domination that still resonate for many. GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC

12 East-West 13 1 Strong 1

| similarities |

Despite significant differences in their perceptions of world powers, East-West East-West SEE PAGE 18 the ten surveyed countries are rather similar in their attitudes More towards the geopolitical orientation of their countries (the East, the West than 50% or somewhere in-between), with a of respondents positioning between East and West favoured in most countries. Outliers prefer the in-between include Estonia, Lithuania and Poland position in Austria, – majorities in these countries back Bulgaria, Czechia, a Western geopolitical orientation (though 18% of respondents in Estonia Hungary, Latvia and were uncertain). Slovakia.

Bulgaria and Slovakia, home to the most fervent pro-Russian sentiment in the region, exhibit the greatest support 38% 4% for an Eastern geopolitical orientation - but even then at only 11-12%. West East East-West or “The in-between position is a Preference in-between? popular stance promoted by local oligarchs, businesses and for the West There has recently been much occasionally even politicians discussion in our society about the who profit from trade or Lithuania 47% geopolitical and civilisational positioning close ties with Russia. They of your country. Would you like your argue that Latvia should be country to be a part of the West, part of a ‘bridge between the East the East, or somewhere in between? Poland 46% and the West’ and emphasise economic benefits from Average preference in the region good relations and trade with Estonia 44% Russia.”

Do not know In-between Riga Graduate School of Law, Romania 43% Latvia 9% 49% Austria 40%

Latvia 39% “Austrian neutrality (established in 1955) is deeply Czechia 33% rooted and has nearly become a part of national identity. Although in real politics, the Hungary 32% concept has changed due to membership in the EU, political parties aiming to secure votes Bulgaria 27% shy away from putting this matter up for discussion.” Slovakia 26% GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC Austrian Society for 2021 Trends GLOBSEC European Politics (OGfE) 14 15 1 Changes in preferences compared to Changes in geopolitical Western 1

| Trends | previous years preferences over four-year With few exceptions, long-term data There has recently been much discussion in our society about the geopolitical and civilisational positioning of your country. Would indicate that geopolitical preferences - East-West period East-West you like your country to be part of the West, part of the East, or somewhere in between? Western or Eastern - are rather stable. Those who preferred West Those who preferred East Two patterns are discernible from Those who preferred West, 2021 Those who preferred East, 2021 the longitudinal data in Hungary and Slovakia. Whereas preferences for a Those who preferred West, average between 2017-2020 Western orientation have increased Those who preferred East, average between 2017-2020 slightly in Slovakia since 2017, there Hungary has, conversely, been a slight decline 0% in Western dispositions in Hungary. 45%

46% 2% 39% 37% Poland 43% 2% 32% In Hungary, respondents 43% 6% are gradually moving Romania 42% 8% towards 5% rather 4% 3% 2% preferring the “in- 33% 2% 2018 2019 2020 2021 between” Czechia 33% 4% position than the Slovakia West.

32% 2% Hungary 40% 4%

29% 26% 23% 27% 12% 21% Bulgaria 28% 10% 10% 11% 11% 9%

26% 11% GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC Slovakia 2018 2019 2020 2021 24% 10% 16 17 18 2 GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Superpowers | Superpowers diplomacy endeavours. Russian andChinesevaccine the politicalsuccessofrecent Russia), inparticular, underline partnerships (theUS,Chinaand towards differentstrategic The latestpublicattitudes region. increase theirstandinginthe exploited everyopportunityto Russia andChinaindeed ramifications ofthepandemic, the USwasrecoveringfrom the US-ledworldorder. While opportune momenttodismantle meanwhile, presentedan The COVID-19 pandemic, West collide. crossroads wheretheEastand NATO arefindingthey eastern flankoftheEUand countries situatedonthe three superpowersintensifies, and dominanceamongthe the competitionforinfluence shaping globalpolitics.As a domineeringrolein China andRussiamaintain strategic poweroftheUS, the economic,militaryand superpowers isnowdebated, While theveryideaof 19 2 GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Superpowers | 2 Superpowers – strategic partners Hungary 2 | the outlier | Which of the following countries are the most important strategic partners of your country today? Pick max. 2. (respondents could choose from a randomised selection of 6 countries including the US, Russia, China, Germany, France and the UK) The survey indicates that Hungary stands out from its peer group, with The US Russia China its public more inclined to classify Superpowers Superpowers Russia and China as strategic partners. This finding comes following the country’s approval of Russian Sputnik 8% V (Hungary was the first in the EU Poland 54% to take this move) and the Chinese- 8% developed Sinovac vaccine (Hungary remains, at the time of writing, the only EU country to administer it). Hence the high preference for China and 8% Russia is a reflection of the dominant Lithuania 53% political discourse in Hungary, praising 4% Russian and Chinese vaccines3. It is, nevertheless, intriguing that younger Hungarians are more likely to label 21% Russia a strategic partner. In Bulgaria Estonia 49% and Slovakia, meanwhile, this view is 6% most espoused by the oldest sub- groups.

13% Romania 47% 10%

27% Latvia 36% 10%

11% Austria 30% 10%

45% Bulgaria 27% 8%

14% Czechia 25% 10%

47% Slovakia 17% 12%

GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 35% 2021 Trends GLOBSEC Hungary 13% 20 30% 21 2 Joe Biden Have you previously heard 2

| more popular Joe Biden | than the US about the following leaders and if yes, do you perceive is perceived Though states tend to be viewed The invisible

through the prism of their leaders, Superpowers Supoerpowers them positively or negatively? Chinese leader public attitudes of the top political fabourably, figure in each of the three Share of those who view a particular world leader positively. Despite the increasing economic and “superpower” countries are, notably, political power of China, its leader, on average, markedly different than views towards Xi Jinping, does not enjoy similar strategic partnership more generally favourability ratings in the survey with respect to each country. by 53% of group as his two peers. Xi Jinping is less popular and less well-known. The favourability ratings of all three Unlike Biden and Putin, one in four leaders surpass the percentage respondents Joe Biden, president of the USA CEE respondent, in fact, never heard identifying their respective of Xi Jinping. In some countries, the countries as strategic partners. This Austria 76% share of those unaware of the leader in surveyed discrepancy, as it pertains to President of the world’s most populous country Biden and the US, is most striking in Czechia 63% reached 30% or more (Slovakia 39%, Austria (46%), Czechia (38%), Hungary Bulgaria 38% and Poland 34%). countries. (29%) and Slovakia (39%), with Joe Romania 58% Biden viewed in a considerably more Poland 58% positive light than the country he represents. Slovakia 56% Vladimir Putin, The case of Vladimir Putin is also Estonia 52% quite telling. He is viewed, not unexpectedly, most favourably in Lithuania 49% meanwhile, trails Bulgaria and Slovakia. The placement One in Latvia 46% of Hungary and Romania, respectively, four CEE in third and fourth, however, is 53% these figures Hungary Regional 42% notable. This finding contrasts with average respondents the robust support for NATO and/or Bulgaria 32% by nearly 20 a pro-Western orientation in the two never heard countries. of Xi Jinping. points, putting his positive Vladimir Putin, president of Russia Such perception of Chinese leader attests to the fact that China’s “While anti-Russian sentiments Vladimir Putin’s image remained largely stable over the past four years in CEE. sentiment presence in the surveyed countries is are widely documented Slovakia is an exception to this trend, since the public approval of Kremlin leader either viewed with suspicion or largely and prevalent throughout has increased by 14%. ignored. Further details on findings at 35%. Romania, there are voices that pertaining to China are included in the directly or indirectly praise Bulgaria 70% next chapter. SEE PAGE 26 the country and specifically its leadership. Putin is perhaps Slovakia 55% perceived as a man of action, a true patriot, and a great Hungary 42% Xi Jingping, leader by a sizeable share of the public. These are all Romania 40% qualities that make a true for his part, Latvia 31% statesman, according to public opinion. Let us not forget that Estonia 30% ranks third in Russia invests a great deal in strategies aimed at bolstering Austria 28% its image and soft power in the the superpower region.” Czechia 24%

GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 35% 2021 Trends GLOBSEC Lithuania 13% Funky Citizens, Romania Regional grouping at 16%. average 22 Poland 12% 23 2 Alexei Alexei Navalny should not have been 2 | Three times Navalny – sent to jail by Russian authorities after | as many a prisoner of being poisoned. Superpowers conscience Superpowers people believe Agree Disagree The case of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who was poisoned 75% in Russia with Novichok, strongly 73% that Alexei resonates in the 10 surveyed countries. His extraordinarily courageous return to Russia, following his hospitalisation 66% Navalny and recovery in Germany, has been closely followed by respondents in the 62% should not region. The immediate detention and 56% 55% sentencing of Navalny to a lengthy 54% 53% prison term is opposed by a majority of have been 50% respondents in 9 of 10 countries. Even in consistently pro-Russian countries like Slovakia and Bulgaria, twice as sent to prison many people reject the move than 43% following his support it. poisoning than support the decision of Russian authorities. Poland Estonia Latvia Austria Lithuania Czechia Romania Hungary Slovakia Bulgaria

12% 13% 13% 14% 17% 19% 19% GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC

26% 26% 24 27% 25 26 3 GLOBSEC Trends 2021 China | China spread ofcoronavirus deflect blamefortheinitial headlines foritsattemptsto China hasindeedgarnered years. more inthespotlightrecent the region,Beijinghasbeen attention throughoutmuchof previously attractedlittle about China control concerningstories efforts toengageinnarrative mass mediaoutlets,concerted including theacquisitionof Though somemanoeuvres, world havenotoverlooked CEE. Beijing’s influencearoundthe Chinese attemptstoaugment with universities rival oftheUS and itsroleasakey economic mask operations intheregion. China tointensifyits influence backdrop isenabling a threattotheregion.This narrative ofChinaaspresenting appear nottobuyintothe however, peopleintheregion methods. Asourdatashows, on theregimeanditsinfluence China andformulateopinions become betterinformedon through whichsocietiescould have allcreatedawindow abuses sanctions overhumanrights also becomeatargetofEU 7 andvaccinediplomacy 10 . Thesedevelopments 4 andcooperation 9 . Beijinghas 5 , mighthave 6 , its 8

27 3 GLOBSEC Trends 2021 China | 3 Chinese regime could be an inspiration Perception of China Human rights 3 | for my country. as a threat in the spotlight | China’s lack of respect for human China Do you believe China presents a danger (significant threat) to your China Agree Do not know rights is an issue that appears to country? (GLOBSEC Trends 2020 polling) resonate with people across the CEE region. More than 50% of respondents Yes Do not know in every country, apart from Bulgaria, believe that human rights violations are occurring in China. In light of the 30% region’s own troubled history, including the severe deprivation of fundamental rights and freedoms through the end 27% of the 20th century, the topic presents a window of opportunity for increasing 51% 51% 25% overall interest and awareness 48% regarding Chinese influence operations. 23% Those who agree 20% that human rights 19% 19% in China are being systematically violated 17% 17% 34% Austria 90% Poland 81% 23% Czechia 79% Slovakia 65% 12% 12% 24% Hungary 63% 21% Estonia 57% 10% 9% Lithuania 55% 8% 8% 8% 16% Latvia 52%

13% Romania 51% 6% 6% 11% Bulgaria 35%

3%

3% 3% 0%

“There is considerable Romania Bulgaria Slovakia Latvia Hungary Estonia Lithuania Austria Czechia Poland Czechia Poland Hungary Slovakia Romania Bulgaria media coverage of human rights violations against the democracy movement in Hong Kong, the treatment of the sympathies towards authoritarian Perceptions Uighur ethnic group and the regimes11. This dynamic helps explain situation in Tibet. The Chinese of China differ the 15% of respondents that deem political system, characterised China an “inspiration” for their own China’s media influence has by one party rule and the Perceptions of China vary vastly country. The greatest levels of self- grown on the back of the restriction of civil and human across the region. Even as Chinese proclaimed awareness regarding China dissemination of Chinese rights and disregard for the influence expands throughout the were measured in Austria, Czechia and content through bilateral rule of law, further casts a world (including the CEE region), Poland. The largest shares of “don’t agreements with local media The awareness of China shadow on the country’s image societies remain little aware of these knows”, meanwhile, were found in the outlets and exchange visits for more generally, too.” developments and the Chinese Baltic states and Bulgaria, underlining is rather low in the Baltic Bulgarian journalists.” government more broadly according the need for more targeted awareness- states, Bulgaria and Austrian Society for to our survey and prior polling data. At raising in these countries given the GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC Center for the Study of European Politics (OGfE), 2021 Trends GLOBSEC the same time, our data underscores potential vulnerability of the societies Democracy, Bulgaria Romania. Austria the fact that certain segments of to opinion persuasion endeavours. 28 the CEE region generally harbour 29 4 The three European countries 4

| with the largest populations | and nominal GDP figures are important partners for the region in a range of areas, be

European partners that trade or EU negotiations. European partners In the past years, our polling in perception of strategic partners concentrated on Germany and France. But with the UK now out of the picture in the EU, a competitive atmosphere between the three countries could serve as newfound impetus for power. Tracking changes over the upcoming years in perceptions towards the UK in the region will, consequently, provide an indication concerning how these developments are playing out. GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC

30 European partners 31 4 The presence of robust trade ties 4 Which of the following and, in some countries, economic

| dependency has undergirded | are the most important the recognition of Germany as a strategic partner by a larger share of strategic partners respondents in all surveyed countries apart from Romania and Poland where of your country today? slightly more people selected the US. European partners France is considered an important European partners Pick max 2 from the following list of countries: US, Russia, China, Germany, France strategic partner by an average 16% of Apart from and the UK. Percentages below the UK, Germany and France correspond to the respondents and the UK by 13%. Germany respondents who chose them as one of two top strategic partners for their country. Austria 86% Poland and Czechia 69%

Slovakia 64% Romania, Lithuania 58% where the Latvia 58% UK Hungary 50% US was more Bulgaria 50% Estonia 18% Estonia 49% preferred, Czechia 17% Poland 48% Romania 16% Romania 42% Germany Latvia 15% Poland 15% was the most Lithuania 14% Slovakia 12% commonly Bulgaria 9% “The findings are highly Austria 8% consistent with the prevailing selected consensus that Lithuanians Hungary 7% France are generally adamantly pro-EU and pro-NATO strategic and supportive of ensuing Austria 35% cooperation with partners in these organisations. The Slovakia 23% partner fact that Germany outpaces Lithuania 21% France on the strategic partnership perceptions is in every Czechia 18% also unsurprising given the relatively closer relations Romania 17% between Lithuania and Germany and Berlin heading surveyed Latvia 16% the NATO Enhanced Forward Presence in Lithuania.” Bulgaria 11% country. Eastern Europe Poland 10% Studies Centre, Lithuania Estonia 9%

GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC Hungary 5% 2021 Trends GLOBSEC

32 33 42 There is a close relationship between 42 Have you previously identification of the three European | | | | countries as strategic partners and the heard about the following popularity of their three leaders. While Chancellor Merkel is perceived most leaders and if yes, do you positively in the region, with 62% of respondents giving her a favourable perceive them positively rating, Emmanuel Macron enjoys an European partners above water image among 54% of European partners GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC or negatively? people surveyed in CEE and Boris Angela Merkel’s spike Historical data indicates Johnson 43%. that the popularity of the Merkel in popularity leaders is not static and rather Share of those who view a particular world leader positively Lithuania 72% sensitive to international Those who developments. In GLOBSEC Austria 71% Trends polling in 2017, the found Angela image of Angela Merkel was Estonia 70% Merkel “likeable” far worse in Bulgaria, Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia than Latvia 68% in 2017 today. Nearly three times as many respondents indeed Romania 62% Romania 67% now perceive Angela Merkel more positively than in 2017 Boris Bulgaria 60% Bulgaria 39% Johnson in Slovakia and Czechia. One Poland 59% Poland 59% plausible explanation concerns Poland 49% the fact that the migration Slovakia 56% Slovakia 19% crisis, which was still present Hungary 49% on the political agenda in 2017, Czechia 53% Czechia 21% saw Germany stake out a Czechia 48% contrasting position to that of Hungary 50% Hungary 38% the V4 countries. Estonia 47%

Slovakia 45%

Romania 43%

Latvia 41%

Lithuania 40% “Germany has long been a Bulgaria 38% preferred partner in Hungary, with the economic importance Austria 27% Emmanuel of Hungarian-German bilateral Macron relations widely recognised. Audi and Mercedes are Slovakia 68% among the country’s largest Lithuania 61% employers, a fact frequently mentioned in the Hungarian No opinion Austria 61% media. The not too favourable views of Chancellor Merkel Czechia 60% and President Macron Up to 25% of respondents in some Emmanuel Macron’s favourability, are probably the result of countries expressed no opinion notably, correlates with those Estonia 57% aggressive targeting of each towards Emmanuel Macron and identifying France as a strategic by pro-government media at Boris Johnson. The highest level of partner – i.e. in those countries where Latvia 57% different points. Merkel was indecisiveness was recorded in Latvia Macron is viewed most positively, primarily attacked for her role and Lithuania (approximately 1 in 4 Romania 50% France is also selected as a strategic in the migration crisis, whereas declined to express an opinion or did partner by the highest percentage of Macron was identified as a key not know what to think of on Macron Bulgaria 49% respondents. opponent of Prime Minister and Johnson), with sizeable pockets of people uncertain in Bulgaria, Estonia Poland 39% Orbán on the EU scene This finding indicates that the following his election victory.” and Hungary (approximately 1 in 5). perceptions of European countries These survey findings could indicate GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC Hungary 38% and their leaders are, to some extent, Political Capital, Hungary limited societal awareness of political interlinked, though causality cannot be developments in other European 34 definitively established. countries. 35 52 The EU has maintained steady 52 | | | | support across the Central and Eastern Europe region over the past few years. This pattern, as evidenced by the attitudes European Union of respondents, has not been European Union GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC noticeably impacted by the pandemic, indicating that EU membership has become an accepted norm in the region and an element blurring the line between the “old” and “new” member states. Czechia has traditionally been the most Eurosceptic EU member since its accession in 2004, with support for EU membership in the country fluctuating between 60% and 70%. GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC

36 European Union 37 5 EU: Stay or leave No decline 5

| of support | Imagine, that the following weekend, there will be a referendum in your country on its membership in the EU. How would you vote – for your country to stay in the EU or leave the EU? Support for EU membership has been relatively steady in every surveyed Stay Leave country since our polling began in

European Union 2017/2018, with a few shifts back and European Union forward.

84% Poland 10%

84% Latvia 12% The only country with a clear

80% Lithuania 10% trend in any direction is Slovakia, with support 79% Romania 19% for EU membership gradually 78% Hungary 15% rising from 66% in 2018 to 78% in 78% Slovakia 16% 2021.

78% Austria 19%

77% Estonia 12%

72% Bulgaria 17% GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 66% Czechia 27% 38 39 5 Positive perception EU Commission 5 | of Ursula von der Leyen President While | An examination of general awareness Those who answered “positively” to the question: Have you previously heard about Ursula von der Leyen and if yes, do you and attitudes towards EU Commission 27% of V4 perceive her positively or negatively? President Ursula von der Leyen can

European Union help shed light on a range of issues. European Union Is the president covered in CEE Austria 54% media? Has the EU and its member respondents states managed to associate the EU Lithuania 52% with key personalities and leaders rather than merely institutions and had never bureaucracy? Initiatives to enhance Poland 48% the personalisation of the EU appear to be having an effect at least in V4 Slovakia 44% heard of countries. In the GLOBSEC Trends 2018 poll, 27% of respondents in the Estonia 43% V4 said they had never heard of then then EU President Jean Claude Juncker. Only Hungary 42% 17% of respondents indicate the same level of ignorance today. Commission Latvia 42% Relatively low awareness, nonetheless, Czechia 39% is still apparent, exemplified in the 44% withholding of opinions towards von President Regional der Leyen. Excluding Austria, 35% of Bulgaria average 38% respondents in CEE either had never heard of von der Leyen or held no Jean Claude Romania 34% opinion on her. Unlike general support for EU membership, a gulf between the “old” and “new” member states Juncker in can still be seen on this matter. Few people have formed no opinion on von der Leyen in Austria - 54% rate the EU Lack of awareness Commission President positively and 2018, only 38% negatively. In Lithuania, where von of Ursula von der Leyen der Leyen is also quite popular, only 10% perceive her negatively, though 15% have Those who answered “They have never heard” and “do not know” to the question: Have you previously heard about Ursula 38% indicate that they had either never von der Leyen and if yes, do you perceive her positively or negatively? heard of her or did not know how to respond. never heard Bulgaria 42%

Latvia 42% of Ursula von Estonia 39% der Leyen Lithuania 38%

Czechia 37% according to Romania 30% 2021 data. Hungary 29%

Slovakia 28% 32% Regional GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC Poland average 26% 2021 Trends GLOBSEC

40 Austria 8% 41 62 The former Warsaw Pact 62 | | | | countries, which joined NATO following the fall of communism, NATO continue to perceive the NATO security guarantees provided by NATO to be paramount to GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC their safety and stability. While there are notable differences between individual countries, overall attitudes towards NATO membership are largely positive with 73% of respondents, on average, affirming their support. GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC

42 NATO 43 62 NATO: Stay or Leave 62 | | | | Please, imagine, that the following weekend, there will be a referendum in your country on its membership in the NATO. How would you vote – for your country to stay in NATO or leave NATO? NATO

Stay in NATO Leave NATO GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC

89% Poland 5%

84% Lithuania 6%

The categorisation of post-communist 80% Hungary 10% countries into several camps based on their support for NATO is still pertinent. Poland, followed by Lithuania, continues to indicate the greatest level Despite (or of NATO support in the region. Bulgaria and Slovakia, meanwhile, tally the least perhaps 77% Romania 19% backing for NATO membership. because of it) increasing tensions between 72% Czechia 18% “Poles are well aware of their geopolitical situation and Russia and own defence capabilities, meaning: a) they border a the West, nuclear empire which is both which capable and willing to extend 72% Latvia 19% its sphere of influence, b) they according to do not alone have sufficient means to resist potential some are at aggression or might not their worst withstand strong economic and political pressure without since the the support of allies. For that NATO 70% Estonia 19% reason, Poland perceives its end of Cold almost unconditional support War, support for NATO as a sine qua non condition of its independence for NATO from Russia. There is also no dependable alternative to membership 63% Slovakia 25% NATO as other alliances and is largely organisations in which Poland partakes lack comparable stable military capabilities that could deter potential aggression.“ in most GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC countries. 54% Bulgaria 25% Kosciuszko Institute, Poland 44 45 6 Increasing Changes in support for 6 | Romania, support for NATO | in Slovakia and NATO over four-year

NATO Bulgaria witnessed a slight Bulgaria NATO viewed as a increase in NATO membership period support, triggered by the improvement of US - EU NATO, interestingly, has increased Stay in NATO Leave NATO NATO hawk, relations. Furthermore, its buy-in slightly in two of the continuing revelations about countries with weakest levels of malign Russian interference in support for Alliance membership. Europe and Bulgaria, as well Slovakia sustained its trend of steadily experienced growing support, aggregating to a Slovakia as a more robust strategic communication outreach 13 percentage point increase since from Brussels explains this 2018. In Bulgaria, where support a notable improvement. dropped below 50% in 2020, NATO membership finds itself once again Center for the Study of supported by more than half the 61% 63% rise in “leave Democracy, Bulgaria population following a 7 percentage point increase in support since last 56% NATO” year. 50%

31% 30% 29% sentiment, 25% reaching nearly 20% of the 2018 2019 2020 2021

population. Erosion of NATO support in Romania Romania

Romania, however, has seen the 82% 83% reverse pattern transpire. Though 75% 77% the country is regarded as one of the staunchest NATO allies in the region, there has been an increase in respondents voicing negative sentiment towards membership, with support falling six percentage points and the leave camp increasing by 9 percentage points. While an overwhelming majority of Romanians still support NATO membership, recent attitude shifts could, nevertheless, 19% indicate an erosion of the stable 10% support once enjoyed for the Alliance 6% 7% in Romania. GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2017 2019 2020 2021 46 47 27 Since October 2020, worrying 27 | | | | signs of the COVID-19 second wave began manifesting across Europe, with rapid spikes in the COVID-19 COVID-19 number of reported cases12. By March 2021, CEE countries, GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC which had been commended during the first wave for their quick imposition of strict lockdown measures (and few COVID-19 related fatalities), were among those most affected13.

Slovakia, for example, garnered negative international press coverage, recording the highest COVID-19 related death rate per million citizens in the world14. Similarly, Hungary, Czechia, Bulgaria, Poland and Romania found themselves among the top 25 countries with the highest death rate per million citizens15.

There are several factors at play that contributed to this debacle including an extensive easing of safety precautions during the summer, inadequate preparation for the second wave and hesitant attitudes towards the reimposing of lockdowns in autumn and winter16 along with poor quality of health care systems. As CEE countries reel from the devastating impact of the second wave on families, livelihoods and the economy, the implementation of an efficient vaccination strategy presents a GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC viable path forward.

48 COVID-19 49 27 Vaccination potential 27 | | | | Vaccination potential is calculated as the sum of those who responded to the question ‘Are you planning to get vaccinated against COVID-19 COVID-19?’ with (a) definitely yes, (b) rather yes and (c) already vaccinated. COVID-19 March 2021 October 2020 & Conspiracy COVID-19

81% GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC narratives

72% 70% Despite the 66% 66% 65% detrimental impact 61% of the second wave 60% of COVID-19 on CEE countries, the allure 28% of CEE of COVID-19 related respondents, conspiracy narratives on average, 46% persists. Failing to believe address this problem COVID-19 45% 45% 38% through efficient 43% is a ploy communication to control strategies that 36% them. 35% are targeted at all segments of the population including

23% those with lower levels of educational attainment who are more likely to forgo vaccination20 will contribute to unsatisfactory Austria Hungary Slovakia Czechia Poland Estonia Lithuania Latvia Romania Bulgaria inoculation campaigns and ultimately the

Vaccine rollouts are changing the The success of Russian and Chinese inability to achieve playbook, with some countries like vaccine diplomacy, nevertheless, has herd immunity Israel and the UK managing to rein been limited in CEE, with only 5% of in the pandemic through rapid and the adult population of the region essential to averting efficient vaccination campaigns17. The expressing a preference for the further pandemic Vaccination vaccination picture has been more Sputnik V vaccine over others and complex in CEE though. Russian less than 1% for Chinese vaccines like waves. potential vaccine diplomacy, for example, Sinovac as of March 202119. has triggered political crises in increases with some countries18 at the expense of GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC education. the implementation of systematic vaccination strategies through EMA- 50 approved vaccines. 51 27 Overestimated Official number of Fake pandemic COVID-19 is fake 27 | | | | cases to manipulate COVID-19 cases is lower On average, only 9% of respondents the population The narrative asserting that public agreed with the statement that “Romania adopted restrictive COVID-19 is fake and does not exist. measures early on and did COVID-19 authorities are overestimating the than my country’s public Agree, October 2020 COVID-19 number of COVID-19 cases attracts a Romania, however, due to being a not suffer the same COVID-19 significant outlier is excluded from the fatalities that Italy was facing varied range of adherents across CEE. authorities tell us Slovakia 39% In every surveyed country, however, aggregated figures. in March-June 2020. This GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC Agree 2021 Agree 2020 may have persuaded some buy-in still amounts to at least 20% of Bulgaria 36% the population. people to think the pandemic Belief in conspiratorial narratives was either entirely made up regarding COVID-19 is reflected in Czechia 36% The dissemination of harmful content 47% or largely inflated in terms Romania lower vaccination interest across online by belligerent actors contributes of contagion, manifestation, 42% surveyed populations. Countries with a Poland 32% to the prevalence of this narrative21, medical needs and number of smaller proportion of respondents who demonstrating the inefficiency of deaths.” think COVID-19 is fake also include Romania 24% initiatives by digital platforms to Lithuania 46% more people willing to get vaccinated curb the spread of COVID-19-related Funky Citizens, Romania compared to places where buy-in to Hungary 21% disinformation22. this narrative is more prevalent. 46% Slovakia 36%

44% “In Slovakia, the 10-percentage Bulgaria Willingness to get vaccinated point increase in popularity 39% of this narrative is surprising versus belief that COVID-19 is fake given the 10,000 COVID-19 related deaths as of April Latvia 42% Proportion of adult population planning to get vaccinated 202123 in a population of under six million. In addition Proportion of population who agree that COVID-19 is fake and does not exist 38% to the active promotion of this Czechia narrative by disinformation 43% actors, the perceived 31% Romania 30% mismanagement of the pandemic (75% of respondents 25% think the government Hungary 33% Bulgaria 17% handled the pandemic badly) 29% and the resulting mistrust of government (66% of Estonia 22% Poland respondents) underscore why. 57% 12%

GLOBSEC, Slovakia Austria 21% 61% Slovakia 11%

In Poland, the reverse concern is 51% Lithuania 10% prevalent, namely that the real number of COVID-19 cases is higher than the country’s public authorities are 53% Latvia 9% reporting, with 53% of the population subscribing to this claim. And this belief is shared by 75% among those who 55% Hungary 7% think that the government has handled 20% of respondents in the COVID-19 crisis badly*. Bulgaria & Lithuania do not 55% Estonia 6% * In Poland, a different question was posed know whether official number to respondents: “The official number of COVID-19 cases, shared by the authorities of COVID-19 cases is lower (public institutions) in my country, is smaller than their country’s public 57% Czechia 6% GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC than in reality” instead of “The official number of COVID-19 cases is lower than authorities tell them. my country‘s public authorities (institutions) 73% Austria 3% 52 tell us”. 53 27 COVID-19 as a Prevalence 27 | | | | planned operation of conspiracy narratives This variation of the classic New World 24 COVID-19 Order conspiracy narrative attracts a The widespread uptake of conspiracy COVID-19 range of appeal across the CEE region. narratives in Bulgaria and Romania, as 16% Estonia Its buy-in across the V4 is generally indicated by their conspiracy ranking, homogenous, however, with 28% of GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC is associated with lower vaccine respondents agreeing that COVID-19 is interest (38% in the former and 46% in a ploy to control them. the latter) in the two countries25. This finding entails that the pervasiveness 27% Latvia of COVID-19 conspiracy narratives could significantly hinder the ability of The COVID-19 pandemic is a planned countries to overcome the pandemic. operation by the hidden forces/elites to 27% Lithuania control the population.

Agree

45%

42% 19% Poland

Czechia 24% 32% 29% Slovakia

29% 28% 27% 27% Austria 12%

Hungary 20% 23% 40% Romania 21%

Conspiracy ranking 35% Bulgaria 0% 40% 10% The conspiracy ranking is calculated as the average response in agreement with three conspiratorial statements about COVID-19 in each country. These statements are: (a) Official number of COVID-19 cases is lower than my country‘s public authorities (institutions) tell us; (b) COVID-19 is fake and does not GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC exist; (c) The COVID-19 pandemic is a planned operation by the hidden forces/ 54 Bulgaria Romania Latvia Slovakia Czechia Hungary Poland Lithuania Estonia Austria elites to control the population. 55 27 Whom do Central 27 | | | | COVID-19 and Eastern Europeans trust?

Average of affirmative answers (“definitely agree” and “rather agree”/ “completely trust” and “rather trust”) of respondents to COVID-19 COVID-19 the statements: “I trust the opinion of the leading medical and scientific authorities on telling us truth about the COVID-19” and “I & Trust would like to ask you - how much do you personally trust or distrust the government in [your country].” Average of negative answers (“definitely disagree” and “rather disagree”) to the statement: “I do not trust COVID-19 vaccines because the pharmaceutical GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC companies are only driven by profit.”

The COVID-19 The COVID-19 pandemic and the infodemic associated with it have pandemic has resulted tested public trust of government in remarkable shifts policies and institutions. While many in the landscape indeed believe in various conspiracy 54% of theories, 7 in 10 respondents, on of trust. During the average, still trust leading medical and respondents, scientific authorities. Trust is key to first wave, the rising achieving herd immunity. numbers of COVID-19 on average, cases surged levels do not trust of government trust in their national many countries. Trust in governments. public authorities and The highest 68% their ability to provide distrust in Trust in medical factual information also government and scientific authorities strongly correlated with people’s willingness was found to get vaccinated. in Romania However, new COVID-19 (68%), surges with skyrocketing followed by mortality, lacking Czechia and strategic communication Slovakia and perceived with 66%. mismanagement of the 57% crisis burst that trust bubble. In search of Trust in pharma trusted leaders, Central companies and Eastern Europeans have, for now, redirected their attention to medical experts and 42% scientists. However, Trust in national the raging infodemic governments continues to undermine the credibility and trust GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC in these authorities as 56 well. 57 27 Trust in medical experts, scientists 27 Trust in medical authorities and The willingness of people and vaccines strongly coincides with | | | | people’s willingness to get vaccinated pharmaceutical companies and their to get vaccinated against against COVID-19. Whereas only 53% of CEE respondents, on average, are interested in getting the jab, the COVID-19 vaccines COVID-19 increases as COVID-19 number grows to 68% among those Affirmative answers of respondents (“definitely agree” and “rather agree”) to the statement: “I trust the opinion of the leading trust in medical authorities who trust vaccines and believe that medical and scientific authorities on telling us truth about the COVID-19” and negative answers (“definitely disagree” and “rather pharmaceutical companies are not GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC disagree”) of respondents to the statement: “I do not trust COVID-19 vaccines because the pharmaceutical companies are only driven grows driven by profit and to 63% among by profit.” those who trust leading medical Affirmative answers (“definitely agree” and “rather agree”) of respondents to the experts and scientists. Those who trust pharmaceutical companies and their vaccines question: “Are you planning to get vaccinated against COVID-19?” compared with affirmative answers (“definitely agree” and “rather agree”) of respondents to the This finding reinforces the importance Those who trust leading medical authorities and scientists question: “Are you planning to get vaccinated against COVID-19?” among those who of medical experts and scientists as a also responded “definitely agree” or “rather agree” to the statement: “I trust the opinion voice of reason for many Central and of the leading medical and scientific authorities on telling us truth about the COVID-19”. Austria 72% 76% Eastern Europeans considering getting vaccinated and bolsters the argument Those who were willing to get vaccinated in March 2021 that these experts should become Hungary 69% 75% the public face of the vaccination Those who were willing to get vaccinated in March 2021 if they trust leading campaign. medical authorities and scientists Czechia 64% 73%

Austria 73% 80% Slovakia 56% 72%

“The profiteering component 59% 71% Estonia of vaccination has become Slovakia 61% 71% a newfound focus for many Latvia 52% 66% in recent months. And the mainstream media has only reinforced this development Poland 52% 66% Poland 57% 70% through its coverage of the apparently exorbitant profits of Biontech and Pfizer Lithuania 52% 62% from vaccine sales and the Lithuania 51% 67% comments of opinion leaders Bulgaria 39% 59% calling for the suspension of intellectual property rights on medical products related to Romania 51% 58% COVID-19. Altogether, these Latvia 53% 66% developments have fostered an atmosphere of distrust towards pharmaceutical A total of 68% of respondents across respondents from Romania do not companies, which are the region trust leading medical trust leading medical authorities, 13% Estonia 55% 65% perceived as benefiting from authorities and scientists and 57% percentage points lower than the the misfortunes of ‘ordinary’ trust pharmaceutical companies on average trust the public grants doctors people.” COVID-19 and vaccines. The findings and scientists. dovetail global trends noted by Czechia 57% 65% Kosciuszko Institute, Poland 40% of Edelman Trust Barometer indicating Romanians that business was the only trusted institution of four examined by the do not trust organisation and scientists the most Hungary 55% 62% leading trusted societal leaders.26 medical An atmosphere of distrust, however, persists on certain issues in some authorities countries. A majority (51%) of Bulgaria 33% 44% Bulgarians and 46% of Romanians and assert that they do not trust the GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC scientists. COVID-19 vaccines because “the pharmaceutical companies are Romania 31% 43% 58 only driven by profit”. And 40% of 59 27 Perceptions of Some uncertain The power of positive personal appeal 27 | | | | the EU vaccination A minority of 18% in Bulgaria and Respondents with favourable among people who perceive Ursula plan Lithuania and 16% in Estonia indicated attitudes towards the leadership of von der Leyen positively. This included “The continuation of the uncertainty on their preferred choice EU Commission President Ursula von a 17-percentage point increase for EU- pandemic put the government COVID-19 The EU’s mismanagement of vaccine for vaccine contract negotiator. der Leyen are more likely to support led negotiations among Poles judging COVID-19 increasingly under pressure. contract negotiations and its sluggish Romanians, meanwhile, expressed the EU heading vaccine negotiations. von der Leyen positively. Doubts were raised vaccination rollout, combined with contradictory attitudes, with 63% While only 40% of all respondents, inconsistent and missed deliveries concerning the EU’s ability to GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC stating their government should handle on average, think the EU should be ensure the fair and sufficient on the part of pharmaceutical negotiations on vaccine purchases and negotiating vaccine deals on behalf of procurement of vaccines. The companies, have contributed to yet a majority of 53% preferring to give member states, this figure rises to 51% 27 alleged lack of solidarity in the widespread criticism of the bloc. the nod to the EU over their national distribution of vaccines was While Europe is a leader in vaccine government. Similar indecision is in even put on the agenda at a production, a considerable share of Poland where 52% of respondents 28 virtual EU summit. this capacity has been exported. think their government should manage Ursula von der Leyen’s leadership A lack of vaccines and pervasive negotiations on the purchase of Member states, however, had vaccine hesitancy, in turn, resulted in vaccines, while 46% prefer the EU to and vaccine negotiations mandated the EU Commission lower numbers of jabs administered be in charge. in EU member states compared to to jointly procure the vaccines. Affirmative answers (“definitely agree” and “rather agree”) of all respondents to the question: “EU should deal with the negotiation the US and UK in early 2021.29 This The Commission, in fact, on buying the vaccines for us instead of our country’s government.” compared to affirmative answers (“definitely agree” and “rather criticism, paired with the failure of conducted negotiations as agree”) of respondents to the question: “EU should deal with the negotiation on buying the vaccines for us instead of our country’s some national governments to order part of a team encompassing government.” among respondents that answered (“very positively” and “rather positively”) to a question pertaining to Ursula von der adequate vaccine supplies30 influenced representatives from seven Leyen: “I will now read you the names of some world political leaders. With each name, please tell me, whether you have already the attitudes of Central and Eastern member states selected by a heard about him or her and if yes, please tell, whether you perceive them positively or negatively.” “Local perspectives on Europeans towards the procurement steering committee composed COVID-19 have led many to Those who agree with the following statements: and administrations of Chinese and of all member states. The look at the pandemic through Russian vaccines without EMA safety Austrian representative EU should deal with the negotiation on buying the vaccines for us instead of our country’s government a national interest lenses. approval. A significant majority of 60% held the position of deputy Numerous narratives appeared of CEE respondents indeed think their chairman in this committee EU should deal with the negotiation on buying the vaccines for us instead of our country’s government while they perceive in social media promulgating Ursula von der Leyen positively national governments should alone until March 2021.” the view that Poland should manage negotiations on the purchase take the initiative in the face of of vaccines rather than the EU. Only Austrian Society for the threat, especially regarding 40%, meanwhile, think the EU should European Politics (OGfE), 64% the vaccination process, 63% manage negotiations on vaccination Austria and ensure the safety of its contracts on behalf of member states. citizens, without considering the interests of other countries 55% 49% and the arrangements made 53% with the EU.” 52% 51% 50% Kosciuszko Institute, Poland 47% 46% 46% 44% 60% of CEE 41% 34% 39% respondents 38% 38% 35% think their 34% national 31% governments should alone manage negotiations on the purchase of vaccines. GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC

60 Poland Romania Hungary Slovakia Bulgaria Estonia Latvia Czechia Austria Lithuania 61 27 How do you think your government has Perceived (in) 27 | | | | competence and handled the COVID-19 crisis so far? worries about In 7 of 10

Affirmative answers (“very well” and “fairly”) and negative answers of respondents (“not so well” and “very badly”) to the question: impact COVID-19 COVID-19 “How do you think your government has handled the COVID-19 crisis so far?” compared to negative answers of respondents to the countries, a Elevated COVID-19 fatality rates same question based on a survey conducted in September/October 2020. during the second wave and sluggish vaccination rollouts contributed to GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC Well Badly Badly 2020 majority of greater negative sentiment among CEE respondents regarding the management of the pandemic by national governments. respondents 60% In 8 of 10 countries, a majority of Austria and Hungary respondents judge their governments believe that 54% are the only countries where majority of to have handled the pandemic badly. respondents think This critical view has soared since their government has October 2020 in 5 of 6 countries, COVID-19 handled the COVID-19 43% remaining stable at 64% in Romania. pandemic well so far. A 44-percentage point rise in 38% dissatisfaction regarding how the 36% 35% measures national government has handled the 33% COVID-19 pandemic was measured in 28% 28% Slovakia. will have a 24% This ire is, in part, directed at concerns that COVID-19 measures adopted by national governments will result in long-term long-term detrimental repercussions for fundamental rights and freedoms. While a majority agreed with this view detrimental in 7 of 10 surveyed countries, 60% of Estonians and 55% of Austrians Austria Hungary Slovakia Czechia Latvia Poland Romania Lithuania Estonia Bulgaria disagreed. impact on their

“Prime Minister Andrej Babiš’s statement from last rights and summer that Czechia is “best in COVID”31 became the 31% subject of ridicule. Institutions freedoms. responsible for handling the 35% pandemic were not up to task - Czechia has gone through 43% 43% four ministers of health in the past year and the government 38% has lacked a unified communication strategy. Some 44% 54% key politicians themselves, moreover, failed to adhere to measures.” 53% 64% 56% 56% PSSI, Czechia

65% 64% GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 70% 69%

62 75% 63 82 While the path towards 82 | | | democratisation has varied for | each of the surveyed countries, the COVID-19 pandemic and Democracy adopted lockdown measures Democracy have tested democratic GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC checks and balances in the CEE region. Greater distrust towards many public institutions and expanded support for autocratic leadership are but two ramifications. These developments underscore the region’s vulnerabilities including particularly the younger democracies of CEE. The democratic journey of the region continues a meandering path even 32 years following the fall of communism. GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC

64 65 Democracy 82 A total of 8 in 10 people in the accommodative towards autocratic 82 Which form of government is good for region judge democracy – defined governance, with 62% of respondents | | | as a system based on equality, in the country professing that an | your country? human rights and freedoms and autocratic leader could be good for rule of law – to be good for their their country (Romanians are just “People tend to be willing to Affirmative answers (“definitely agree” and “rather agree”) of respondents from September/October 2020 and March 2021 to respective countries. That said, 42% behind at 58%). Czechia stands on the forgo democratic deliberation, Democracy the statements: “Democracy as a system based on equality, human rights and freedoms and rule of law is good for my country” and of respondents are accommodative to reverse end of the spectrum, with only which could risk slowing Democracy “Having a strong and decisive leader who does not have to bother with parliament or elections is good for my country.” autocratic governance, believing the 27% expressing interest in autocratic decision-making, in times of model to be good for their countries. leadership. crises.” GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC Those who agree that democracy as a system based on equality, human rights and freedoms and rule of law is good These latter attitudes have grown in 5 for their country 2020 data of 6 countries since October 2020 and The COVID-19 pandemic, as noted in Political Capital, Hungary are voiced by more than 50% of the Freedom House’s Nations in Transition Those who agree that having a strong and decisive leader who does not have to bother with parliament or elections is good population in Bulgaria, Romania and 2021 report, spurred numerous CEE for my country 2020 data Latvia. Bulgarians, regionally, are most leaders to exploit the moment to redefine democratic norms, with 6 of 9 analysed countries experienced a 95% decline in their democracy scores.32 Poland and Hungary, notably, 88% 88% 87% 86% 85% have recorded the most striking antidemocratic turns. A deterioration 82% 82% 81% “Preference for a ‘strong and decisive leader’ is somewhat in democracy was, in fact, identified 62% of 84% 85% 84% more common among in five areas of the Freedom House supporters of the right-wing democracy score for Hungary and six 70% Bulgarians Freedom Party (FPÖ). The areas for Poland.33 76% 77% party sees itself on the rise think an again, receiving a positive autocratic 67% reception among respondents who say that they will not leader could vote in national elections be good and people susceptible to “The generalised believing COVID-19-related sociopsychological profile for their conspiracy theories.” of those, who prefer autocratic leaders, includes country. Austrian Society for characteristics of fatigue European Politics (OGfE), from slow decision-making, Austria unwillingness to note positives changes ensured by a proper democracy, inaccurate comparison of authoritarian achievements with domestic developments in Estonia, and susceptibility Latvia Austria Slovakia Poland Czechia Hungary Bulgaria Estonia Romania Lithuania to populistic narratives spread “The pandemic, coupled with by some political parties. growing political instability Demographics of those people and social discontent against refer to lower education the current government, and socioeconomically 16% has increased support for disadvantages.” far-right nationalist and one- personality-driven political 25% 24% International Centre for 27% parties. The party with the Defence and Security, Estonia second-highest vote share is led by a populist comedy 34% television host seen as a 39% 39% long-time critic of the political 32% 33% 34% 35% elite and promising a complete 38% overhaul of the electoral system.” 46% Center for the Study GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC of Democracy, Bulgaria 54% 58% 66 62% 67 82 Strong autocratic Democracy does not equate 82 | | | While 42% leadership | appealing to many to liberal democracy

of CEE A strong link was identified between Affirmative answers (“definitely agree” and “rather agree”) of respondents from September/October 2020 and March 2021 to Democracy Democracy the belief that autocracy is a good form the statements: “Democracy as a system based on equality, human rights and freedoms and rule of law is good for my country” and of governance on the one side and “Liberal democracy as a system based on equality, human rights and freedoms and rule of law is good for my country.” respondents, espousal of the idea that the Chinese GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC regime could be a role model on the Those who agree that democracy as a system based on equality, human rights and freedoms and rule of law is good for their country other. And a similar association was on average, measured between the former and Those who agree that liberal democracy as a system based on equality, human rights and freedoms and rule of law is positive attitudes towards Russian good for their country President Vladimir Putin. Whereas think having 42% of CEE respondents, on average, 95% think having a strong and decisive leader who needs not bother with an autocratic parliament or elections is good for 96% 88% 88% 87% 86% their country, the figure reaches 51% 85% among those who perceive Putin 82% 82% 81% leader is positively and 58% among those who consider the Chinese regime to be an inspiration for their country. good for their Throughout the pandemic, both the 70% 76% Kremlin and Beijing have waged 75% 73% extensive propaganda campaigns and country, such used vaccine diplomacy to increase 69% 68% their spheres of influence in the region. These strategies, paired with the 63% belief increases aforementioned growing openness 60% 59% to autocratic leadership, could pose a severe risk to the already declining to 51% among democratic standards across CEE. 50% those who

perceive Putin “At a fundamental level, this discrepancy appears to be tied to “othering”. Liberalism positively as an idea and a value system, moreover, has also endured constant attack from Russian- and to 58% related campaigns in the media and elsewhere. These endeavours have left an among those impact on certain segments of Lithuanian society.” Austria Slovakia Latvia Poland Czechia Hungary Bulgaria Estonia Romania Lithuania who consider Eastern Europe Studies Centre, Lithuania General backing of democracy is fade in 9 of 10 surveyed countries society prone to contradictory beliefs. the Chinese robust and growing across CEE when when the word “liberal” is added An “anti-liberal” wave in the region has democracy is understood to be “a before democracy. Slovakia (28 indeed been witnessed, which labelled system based on equality, human percentage point disparity) and liberalism as “perverted”, “decadent” regime to be an rights and freedoms and rule of law”. Hungary (26 percentage point and a threat to “national identities and Yet there are signs that liberalism has disparity) particularly stand out. traditional values”.34 been “othered”, with identification of democracy as an ideal governance The findings underline the rather GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC inspiration for system plummeting by 15 percentage declaratory and potentially shallow points (though still attracting 69% commitment to democratic principles 68 their country. overall support) and seeing its buy-in among a considerable segment of 69 92 A flourishing and independent 92 | | | | press landscape is vital for any vibrant democratic society. The Media World Press Freedom Index Media 2020, however, classified only one (Estonia) of 10 surveyed GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC CEE countries as meeting the bar for a good media environment. The media climate was, nonetheless, evaluated as satisfactory in Austria, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Czechia and Romania35. Three countries - Poland, Hungary and Bulgaria - were judged to have a problematic media environment according to the index.

The media in surveyed CEE countries, in addition to the challenges noted above, must also cope with pervasive distrust of their institution by vast majorities of the population. GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC

70 71 Media 92 Mistrust towards mainstream media Distrust 92 | | | | on the rise Excluding Mistrust was calculated as the percentage of respondents who responded to the question ‘How much do you personally trust or distrust mainstream media in [your country]?’ with (a) rather distrust or (b) completely distrust. In seven of ten surveyed countries, Media Media mistrust of the mainstream media 2021 2020 increased by an average of 8 Estonia, percentage points. Hungary, Czechia and Poland lead the chart, however, GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC recording an average mistrust of 65% 58% of Hungary 55% 69% of respondents. This finding reflects the challenging media climate in each of these countries as the media respondents struggles to maintain its independence Czechia 59% 64% in the face of government campaigns to extend control36 and/or oligarchic 38 in the media ownership .

Poland 62% 62% countries

“In Bulgaria, the increase in lack trust in Slovakia 50% 60% media trust can be attributed to a shift to foreign ownership of mainstream media outlets mainstream (BTV, Nova Media Group, Austria 52% 59% etc...). Although not likely to prove a long-term trend, the media, a change in attitudes could also be explained by the rising popularity of new independent Romania 52% 58% media like Alternativata (The concerning Alternative), the investigative reporting website Bivol and the stronger media increase from Lithuania 43% 56% market positions of pro- Western outlets such as the Economedia Group.” 51% in March

Latvia 36% 48% Center for the Study of Democracy, Bulgaria 2020.

Bulgaria 46% 54%

Estonia 31% 47%

Bulgaria and Estonia are the only two countries in the region where the mistrust towards mainstream media decreased. GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC

72 73 92 Support for social media regulation Social media Keen to 92 | | | regulation learn more | Social media companies (Facebook, Instagram, YouTube) should be more strictly regulated by laws and rules The regulation of digital platforms has “Several factors play into Media about this Media become an important global issue, the low preference for social 74% with unregulated digital spaces linked media regulation in Bulgaria. topic? to numerous harmful phenomena The Bulgarian social media including, among other problems, the space is particularly vulnerable 71% To learn more about the topic of GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC proliferation of illegal content, hate to supporters of conspiracy digital platforms’ regulation, visit speech, polarisation, radicalisation, theories who define it as the the webpage of GLOBSEC-led private data leaks and cyber-bullying38. only place for “free speech”. Alliance for Healthy Infosphere, Nationalist and pro-Kremlin established in summer 2020 as While the debate is gaining momentum parties are exploiting these a reaction to the proliferation of at the EU level as exemplified in vulnerabilities to influence hate speech and disinformation initiatives such as the European decision-making and the 61% online. The Alliance advocates for Democracy Action Plan39 and the functioning of democratic a safe and just online information Digital Services Act40, national laws institutions. Traditional space for all with a particular focus 58% that seek to establish rules for the mainstream media has on strengthening the voices of digital space are also proliferating in been captured by informal actors from smaller countries with both democratic41 and non-democratic networks of influence close unique languages which suffer 54% countries42. There is no consensus, to the government, which 53% from marginalisation and the lack however, on the issue among the 10 has pushed the general of measures implemented in their surveyed CEE countries. audience to prefer social 51% countries. media channels that could allow many more alternative viewpoints. Furthermore, Bulgarians are simply unaware 45% 45% of social media regulation as a “In Austria, there is rampant concept.” criticism directed at tech giants for the alleged threat Center for the Study of they pose to national and Democracy, Bulgaria local economies and their role Our commentaries and 37% in accelerating globalization policy papers can be through their market power. found on our website People want the tech giants

to be taxed fairly. Additionally, www.globsec.org there is apprehension regarding the potential misuse of social media platforms to manipulate people, violate privacy and engage in intrusive personal data practices through ad tracking, personalised advertising and data disclosures to third parties.”

Austrian Society for European Politics (OGfE), Austria GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC Austria Slovakia Czechia Romania Hungary Latvia Lithuania Estonia Poland Bulgaria

74 75 2| 2| | |

Trust is key to COVID-19

Connecting the dots achieving herd nurturing Connecting the dots immunity autocratic GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC tendencies Medical experts and leading scientific authorities are broadly trusted across all 10 EU champion The perceived CEE countries. Central and mismanagement of the Eastern Europeans indeed EU Commission President COVID-19 pandemic and express more confidence Ursula von der Leyen, a former accompanying lockdown in these experts than their physician, needs to make measures has been judged by governments in managing the use of her positive image many to be a violation of their COVID-19 crisis. These findings to implement changes in Dismantling rights and freedoms. These underscore the fact that it the EU vaccination strategy attitudes have contributed could prove beneficial to make including the renegotiation of Kremlin mirage to growing openness to medical experts and scientists contracts and the setting of autocratic leaders in 5 of 6 the public face of vaccination clear deadlines and delivery Central and Eastern Europeans CEE countries. Rising distrust campaigns and serve as a volume expectations for were unsettled by Alexei in public institutions and voice of reason for people still pharmaceutical companies. Navalny’s poisoning and dissatisfaction with democracy, contemplating the jab and/ The aspiration to establish a overwhelmingly oppose his furthermore, are steering or open to various COVID-19 health union encompassing a imprisonment. This holds some to anti-establishment conspiracy theories. dedicated agency responsible true even in countries, like for the EU procurement Slovakia and Bulgaria, that political actors in the hope of medical supplies has have been consistently they may shake up the been vocalised.43 Clear and pro-Russian in the past. The system. Democratic leaders consistent communication on Navalny case, in this regard, should seek to overcome the part of EU leaders, like presents an opening through these proclivities by opening Ursula von der Leyen, is now which the Kremlin’s favourable discussion to potential needed to enhance citizen image can be countered. reforms and taking moves trust in the EU and provide a Rising domestic discontent44, towards greater inclusion and Putting the sense of stability. repression of human rights45 participatory governance. spotlight on and the violation of democratic principles and Moscow’s China malign subversive acts in Europe need to gain more China’s rising influence and prominent coverage in the growing involvement in media and public discourse. the CEE region has largely Truth must be amplified over advanced unnoticed, facilitated Kremlin propaganda and the Opportunity by a generally unaware public. voices of “useful idiots” in the for Joe Biden Beijing’s vaccine and mask CEE region. diplomacy initiatives have, to rebuild nevertheless, reinforced the relations with view that the region cannot the EU turn a blind eye to the country given the implications of its With a majority in the CEE engagement. The violation of region perceiving the US human rights and attempts by President Joe Biden positively, China to censor debates in Washington has been awarded CEE countries concerning this an opportunity to regain repression, nonetheless, could trust and revive its role in prove an opportune moment transatlantic cooperation. The to augment general interest Biden-Harris administration and awareness of influence should make use of this operations orchestrated by favourable climate to GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC Beijing.

Connecting the dots strengthen ties with Central and Eastern Europe. 76 77 | Authors Methodology Partners | Credits Credits The outcomes and findings of this The inputs for country The opinion polling report are based on public opinion was conducted by the Dominika -specific context and poll surveys carried out in March analysis were completed following agencies and Hajdu 2021 on a representative sample Research Fellow by our project partners: coordinated by FOCUS, of the population in ten countries: s.r.o. in Slovakia. Austria, Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Susan Milford-Faber, Stefan Schaller Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Paul Schmidt, Austrian Society for Austria: BB Research Affairs GmbH Romania and Slovakia. The surveys European Politics (ÖGfE), Austria were conducted on a sample of 1000 Katarína www.oegfe.at Bulgaria: ALPHA RESEARCH Ltd. Klingová respondents per country (10,000 respondents altogether) using Senior Research Martin Vladimirov, Center for the Study Czechia: FOCUS - Centrum pro sociální Fellow stratified multistage random sampling of Democracy, Bulgaria a marketingovou analýzu, spol. s.r.o. in the form of computer-assisted www.csd.bg telephone interviewing (CATI) due Estonia: Turu Uuringute to COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. Jonáš Syrovátka, Prague Security In all countries, the profiles of the Daniel Studies Institute, Czechia Hungary: IMAS Inter­ na­ ti­ o­ nal­ Magyar­ ­ respondents were representative of Milo www.pssi.cz ország­ Kft. Senior Adviser the country according to gender, age, education, place of residence and Dmitri Teperik, International Centre Latvia: Latvian Facts size of settlement. For the purposes for Defence and Security, Estonia of graphical data visualisation, the www.icds.ee/en Lithuania: Vilmorus results were rounded to full numbers. To improve the readers’ experience, Miroslava Csaba Molnár and Patrik Szicherle, Poland: IMAS International Sp. z o.o. the responses in closed questions with Sawiris Political Capital, Hungary Research Fellow a scale were generalised. For example, www.politicalcapital.hu Romania: ISRA Center Marketing a question with options definitely Research SRL agree/ rather agree/ rather disagree Mārtiņš Hiršs, Riga Graduate School /definitely disagree was merged to of Law, Latvia Slovakia: FOCUS - Centrum pre Democracy & Resilience Centre agree / disagree. www.rgsl.edu.lv sociálnu a marketingovú analýzu, s.r.o.

Jurgis Vedrickas, Eastern Europe Studies Centre, Lithuania Terminology www.eesc.lt/en

Baltics: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania Michał Krawczyk and Kamil Mikulski, Visegrad Four / V4: Czechia, Hungary, Kosciuszko Institute, Poland Poland and Slovakia www.ik.org.pl/en CEE / Central and Eastern Europe: V4, Baltics, Romania, Bulgaria and Austria Laura Burtan, Funky Citizens, Romania www.funky.ong/english

Photo credits p.22: lev radin / Shutterstock.com Anton Veselov / Shutterstock.com p.23: 360b / Shutterstock.com p.24: Rosfoto.ru / Shutterstock.com p.34: Michael Tubi / Shutterstock.com Frederic Legrand - COMEO / Shutterstock.com p.35: 360b / Shutterstock.com p.41: Alexandros Michailidis / Shutterstock.com GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC Credits & Credits methodology

78 79 | 1 Calculated as the average of three 16 https://theconversation.com/ 31 https://echo24.cz/a/ScNmc/best- | COVID-19 conspiratorial narratives. coronavirus-why-is-eastern-europes- in-covid-plosna-opatreni-uz-nikdy- second-wave-so-much-worse-than-its- nebudou-co-vse-pronesl-babis-o- 2 https://www.globsec.org/wp- first-150430 covidu References References content/uploads/2017/05/GLOBSEC- Trends2019.pdf 17 https://www.bbc.com/news/world- 32 Austria is not included in middle-east-56868383 Freedom House’s analysis, https:// 3 https://www.business-standard.com/ freedomhouse.org/report/nations- article/current-affairs/covid-vaccine- 18 https://abcnews.go.com/Health/ transit/2021/antidemocratic-turn sputnik-safest-pfizer-s-shot-worst-row- wireStory/slovakias-political-crisis- over-hungary-data-121042800019_1. triggered-sputnik-deepens-76229068 33 https://freedomhouse.org/sites/ html default/files/2021-04/NIT_2021_ 19 https://www.globsec.org/wp- final_042321.pdf 4 https://chinaobservers.eu/chinas- content/uploads/2021/04/GLOBSEC- evolving-approach-to-media-influence- Vaccination-Trends.pdf 34 https://www.globsec.org/wp-content/ the-case-of-czechia/ uploads/2019/06/European-Elections- 20 https://www.globsec.org/wp- in-the-V4.pdf, https://www.globsec.org/ 5 https://thediplomat.com/2020/02/ content/uploads/2021/04/GLOBSEC- wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Slovak- countering-chinas-influence- Vaccination-Trends.pdf parliamentary-election-2020.pdf campaigns-at-european-universities/ 21 https://www.facebook. 35 https://rsf.org/en/ranking 6 https://www.bbc.com/news/world- com/562858970725741/ asia-china-56054468 posts/1388399641504999 36 https://ipi.media/the-hungary-model- how-poland-copied-illiberal-tactics-for- 7 https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/ 22 https://www.bbc.com/news/ weakening-independent-media/ chinas-mask-diplomacy/ technology-52903680 37 https://english.radio.cz/rsf-czech- 8 https://www.bruegel.org/2021/04/ 23 https://www.worldometers.info/ oligarchs-nations-president-and- vaccine-diplomacy-soft-power-lessons- coronavirus/country/slovakia/ pm-continue-undermine-press- from-china-and-russia/ freedom-8133139 24 https://nymag.com/news/features/ 9 https://www.ft.com/content/6124b conspiracy-theories/new-world-order/ 38 https://www.europarl.europa.eu/ eb8-5724-11ea-abe5-8e03987b7b20 RegData/etudes/STUD/2019/634414/ 25 https://www.globsec.org/wp- EPRS_STU(2019)634414_EN.pdf 10 https://www.dw.com/en/eu-agrees- content/uploads/2021/04/GLOBSEC- china-sanctions-over-human-rights- Vaccination-Trends.pdf 39 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/ abuses/a-56897653 presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_2250 26 https://www.edelman.com/sites/g/ 11 https://www.globsec.org/publications/ files/aatuss191/files/2021-01/2021- 40 https://digital-strategy.ec.europa. democracy-and-authoritarianism-in- edelman-trust-barometer.pdf eu/en/policies/digital-services-act- cee-western-balkans-who-is-winning/ package 27 https://www.bbc.com/news/ 12 https://theconversation.com/ explainers-56286235 41 https://www.ceps.eu/ceps-projects/ europes-second-wave-is-worse-than- the-impact-of-the-german-netzdg-law/ the-first-what-went-so-wrong-and- 28 https://euobserver.com/ what-can-it-learn-from-countries-like- stakeholders/150931 42 https://www.bbc.com/news/world- vietnam-147907 middle-east-44858547 29 This information was valid as of 13 https://www.economist.com/ May 1, 2021. https://www.euronews. 43 https://euobserver.com/ graphic-detail/2021/02/15/covid-19s- com/2021/04/30/covid-19-vaccinations- stakeholders/150931 second-wave-has-devastated-eastern- in-europe-which-countries-are-leading- european-countries the-way, https://covid.cdc.gov/covid- 44 https://www.theguardian.com/ data-tracker/#vaccinations world/2021/apr/21/top-navalny-aides- 14 https://www.euronews. arrested-protests-jailed-opposition- com/2021/03/03/slovakia-s-frontline- 30 https://www.euractiv.com/section/ leader-russian-police-moscow staff-under-strain-as-country-records- politics/short_news/small-vaccine- world-s-highest-covid-related-d orders-sees-czech-republic-lag- 45 https://www.rferl.org/a/russia- behind-in-vaccine-roll-out/, https:// teenage-protester-olga-misik-defiant- 15 https://www.worldometers.info/ spectator.sme.sk/c/22619937/ court-speech-constitution-criminal- coronavirus/#countries has-slovakia-failed-to-order-millions- charges/31239475.html GLOBSEC Trends 2021 Trends GLOBSEC 2021 Trends GLOBSEC

References of-available-pfizer-vaccines-health- ministry-refutes-claim.html 80 81 This report is a part of GLOBSEC Trends series, yearly publication examining trends © GLOBSEC 2021 in attitudes in CEE countries. This publication was supported by the National Endowment for Democracy.

GLOBSEC and the National Endowment for Democracy assume no responsibility for facts or opinions expressed To learn more about GLOBSEC in this publication or their and our reports, go to: subsequent use. Sole responsibility lies with the Creative concept & design by www.globsec.org authors of this publication. myHive Vajnorská 100/B, 831 04 Bratislava Slovak Republic +421 2 321 378 00 [email protected]

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