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Explaining the Significance of Independents in Irish Political Life

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Explaining the Significance of Independents in Irish Political Life We don’t like (to) party: Explaining the significance of Independents in Irish political life Liam Weeks Submitted for the degree of Ph.D. in Political Science University of Dublin, Trinity College 2008 1 Declaration I declare that this thesis has not been submitted as an exercise for a degree at University of Dublin, Trinity College, nor at any other University. _______________________________ __________________ I declare that this thesis is entirely my own work. _______________________________ __________________ I agree that the library may lend of copy the thesis upon request. _______________________________ __________________ 2 Summary The aim of this thesis is to explain the significant presence of Independents (non-party representatives) in the Irish political system. This topic was chosen because parties have a monopoly on parliamentary representation in almost all liberal democracies. Ireland is an exception to this pattern, as Independents have been elected to every session of parliament since the foundation of the modern Irish state. There have been very few academic analyses of Independents carried out in relation to any political system, and this study therefore makes a significant contribution to the political science discipline. Important contributions are also made to the specific areas of candidate emergence, campaign effects, voting behaviour, and electoral systems. This thesis sheds light on the background of Independent candidates and why they choose to run for office; it provides a detailed analysis of the effects of campaign activities; and it assesses the consequences of an electoral system that has been under-studied. My two main units of analysis are Independent candidates and voters for such candidates. The data on candidates stems from both a survey of local election candidates and election statistics, while the data on voters is from a national election study. Given the lack of published data on the role and nature of Independents, a typology of Independents is provided. This is devised from a qualitative analysis of candidates’ campaigns from contemporary newspapers. The purpose of this categorisation is to account for the heterogeneous nature of Independent candidates, who tend to attract a vote contextual to the nature of their candidacy. As such, a typology of Independents goes some way to explaining why people vote for them. To explain the significance of Independents, four main questions are asked: why individuals choose to run as Independents; what effect their campaigns 3 have; why people choose to vote for such candidates; and what role the electoral system plays in affecting the behaviour of both these candidates and voters alike. In explaining the motives of candidates, both the sociological and rational models are assessed. The influence of campaigns focuses on how they affect candidates’ vote. Several theories of voting behaviour are used to determine why people vote for Independents, in particular the ideas of party identification and the sociological model. The role of the electoral system is considered by focussing on its mechanical and psychological effects. The main findings are that although Independents are a heterogeneous category, there are still some general catch-all reasons accounting for their significance. Independents are not more expressive in their motives in running for office than party candidates, and their socio-economic background varies little from the latter. Independents also demonstrate evidence of a strategic nature, as the pattern of their emergence displays an element of rationality. Campaigns are important to Independents, more so than for party candidates, as they have a significant effect on the vote accrued at elections. The vote for Independent candidates appears to be a product of a localistic political culture, but also has an element of a protest behind it. It is not the case that the electoral system creates this Independent vote, but it certainly facilitates its expression, as it establishes conditions that encourage the flourishing of a culture conducive to an Independent vote. 4 Acknowledgements Many people have provided invaluable support in the process of both beginning and completing this thesis. The first group that deserve a mention are the local election candidates who were generous enough to complete my questionnaire. Thanks are also due to the Independent TDs who participated in interviews and responded to my further requests for knowledge. Thanks also to the staff of the Library, Trinity College. Special thanks are due to the Irish Research Council for the Humanities and Social Sciences for granting me a Postgraduate Scholarship that was of immense assistance in my carrying out this thesis. Particular thanks are due to my supervisor Professor Michael Gallagher who was of enormous help in writing this thesis. From the careful reading of my draft chapters to the providing of sound advice, he was always a source of scholarly support. Professor Michael Marsh also provided excellent advice, especially on methodological issues and the design of my survey. Thanks are due to all staff members in the Department of Political Science, Trinity College, and to my colleagues in the Department of Government, University College Cork for their support. I would also like to thank my fellow PhD candidates for their support and friendship during the various stages of my years at Trinity College, in particular Shane MacGiollabhuí, Fiachra Kennedy, and Francesco Cavatorta for the many hours spent on the football field. The patience of Karen Devine and Ken McDonagh for sharing a carrel with my books and I is duly noted. I would also like to thank my supportive friends, who kept me sane during this process, and provided plenty of worthwhile distractions. These include Mícheál Ó Fathartaigh, Eddie Campbell, Anna Sniezko, Anthony Egan, Clive Ahern, and Joanne Hayes. 5 Above all, I would like to express my gratitude to my family for their patience and support. To my parents, Graham and Margaret Weeks, my sister, Caoimhe Weeks, and my grandparents, Peggy Navin (R.I.P.), Jean Weeks, and Ron Weeks; this is dedicated to them for always being there for me. 6 Table of Contents Summary Acknowledgements List of figures List of tables 1: INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Why Study Independents? 5 1.3 Structure: theories and approaches 13 1.4 Research Design 16 1.5 Structure and Methodology 18 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 21 2.1 Introduction 21 2.2 Defining an Independent 22 2.3 Candidate emergence 27 (i) Psychological model 28 (ii) Sociological model 29 (iii) Economic/rational model 31 2.4 Campaign effects 35 2.5 Voting for an Independent 40 (i) Personalism and localism 42 (ii) Anti-party sentiment 46 2.6 The electoral system 50 2.7 Conclusion 55 3: INDEPENDENTS IN IRISH 57 POLITICAL LIFE, 1922–2002 3.1 Introduction 57 3.2 Distinguishing between an Independent 58 and a party (i) Groups whose candidates are included 61 as Independents (ii) Groups qualifying as parties 62 3.3 Support for Independents 62 3.4 Factors explaining Independent trends 67 (i) Independents 1920s–1940s 67 (ii) Independents 1950s–1970s 71 (iii) Independents 1970s– 72 3.5 Categorisation of Independents (1) 75 3.6 Remnants of former parties 81 (i) Independent Nationalists 81 (ii) Independent Unionists 82 3.7 Corporatist Independents 88 (i) Independent Business 88 (ii) Independent Farmers 90 7 3.8 Ideological Independents 92 (i) Left-wing Independents 92 (ii) Independent Republicans 95 (iii) National single-issue Independents 98 96 3.9 Community Independents 101 3.10 Temperamental Independents 103 3.11 Micro-parties 109 3.12 Categorisation of Independents (2) 111 (i) Classification by cleavage 112 (ii) Classification by orientation 113 to party system 3.13 Conclusion 116 4: THE ROAD LESS TRAVELLED: 120 WHY DO INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES RUN? 4.1 Introduction 120 4.2 Why not Independent? 121 4.3 Data 121 4.4 Local government in Ireland 124 4.5 Party dissidents 127 4.6 Categories of analysis 130 4.7 Reasons for running: 132 Instrumental vs. expressive incentives (i) Instrumental incentives 135 (ii) Expressive incentives 139 (iii) The failure of parties 143 4.8 Models of candidate emergence 148 (i) Sociological 149 (ii) Rational model: Applying the calculus 158 of candidacy to Independents (iii) Estimating the probability of victory (p) 160 (iv) Benefits (B) 163 (v) Costs (C) 166 (vi) Are Independents strategic in their decision to run? 168 4.9 Conclusion 175 5: INDEPENDENTS’ ELECTORAL 178 CAMPAIGNING. DOES IT MAKE A DIFFERENCE? 5.1 Introduction 178 5.2 Campaigns 179 (i) Definition of a campaign 179 (ii) Local Elections 179 5.3 How to measure campaign activity 180 5.4 Campaign analysis 181 8 5.5 Measuring the impact of campaign activity 183 (1) Preparation 180 (2) Campaign resources 185 (i) Campaign team 181 (ii) Personal Computers 185 (iii) Electoral register 187 (3) Campaign activities performed 188 (i) Type of campaign activities 189 (ii) Election literature: posters and leaflets 191 (iii) Polling day 193 (4) Campaign expenditure 194 5.6 What makes a strong campaign? 196 5.7 What determines campaign strength? 200 5.8 Does campaigning matter? 205 5.9 Conclusion 208 6: THE BASES OF SUPPORT FOR 211 INDEPENDENTS 6.1 Introduction 211 6.2 Categories of analysis 212 6.3 Social bases of Independent support 213 (i) Class 213 (ii) Age, education, and sex 216 6.4 Voting incentives 219 6.5 Instrumental incentives 219 (i) Personalism 222 (ii) Localism 228 6.6 Expressive incentives 233 (i) They’re not parties 234 (ii)
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