‘ Food Security Report: August 15, 2001

Summary

The general food-security outlook for the majority of the population in northern Tanzania, particularly and Kilimanjaro Regions, has rebounded to stable and improved food security conditions following good masika rains, which enhanced crop performance.

Assessments by FEWS NET in Arusha Region and FAO in in July reverse the previous findings by FEWS NET, the Food Security Department, and others that had indicated heightened food insecurity in the two regions during 2001/02 market year following another poor masika production season. For the past four consecutive production years, these regions had experienced heightened food insecurity resulting from reduced production due to adverse weather conditions.

The reports of the assessments indicate significant increases in food production from the 2000/01 production year compared with the five-year average (1995/96-1999/2000) and last year (1999/2000). In particular, the production of maize, the major staple, is estimated to be above the five-year average by 57 percent and last year by 200 percent in Arusha Region, and by 13 percent and 165 percent, respectively, in Kilimanjaro Region. Also, better harvests are expected from pulses, other non-cereal crops and traditional cash crops compared with the five- year average and last year.

Grazing, fodder, browse, and water sources for livestock are satisfactory, subsequently improving livestock conditions and productivity in milk supply, body weight, and calving rates. Livestock sales are normal and prices in primary and secondary markets higher than in previous periods.

Elsewhere in the country, supplies of primary and secondary staples are very adequate, owing to the completed or ongoing harvests, which have increased supplies, and to the normal dry conditions, which have facilitated marketing of food from surplus to deficit areas. Low and stabilizing market prices reflect satisfactory food supplies.

Declining food prices and higher livestock prices are providing good terms of trade for those selling livestock and purchasing food, further stabilizing food-security conditions of livestock- dependent households.

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Diminishing Food-Security Crises in Northern Tanzania

Food -security conditions for the 2001/02 market year for the majority of the households in Arusha and Kilimanjaro Regions are satisfactory, following overall improved crop production and livestock productivity from the 2000/01 vuli and masika seasons. However, the performance of the 2001/02 short rains (vuli) season in October-December should be closely monitored because it will be critical in consolidating the recent food-security gains in the two regions through the year.

On the basis of food availability and access from own production, the majority of the population in Arusha and Kilimanjaro Regions should have satisfactory food security for a longer period during the 2001/02 market year than last year, following an overall improved crop production and livestock productivity from the 2000/01 vuli and masika seasons. Assessments by FEWS NET in Arusha Region and FAO in Kilimanjaro Region in July reverse the conclusions reached in previous FEWS NET reports, the Food Security Department, and others that had indicated that a poor production season would lead to worsening food insecurity in the two regions during 2001/02 market year. For the past four consecutive production years, these regions had experienced heightened food insecurity resulting from reduced production due to adverse weather conditions. This had consequently compelled households to overstretch their coping mechanisms. A proportion of these households got relief interventions of food aid and emergency seeds.

The generally bright food security outlook in the two regions reveals a promising recovery from food insecurity following good rains over most areas, which enhanced performance of crops. The analysis in Table 1 indicates a significant increase in total food production from the 2000/01 production year compared with the five-year average and last year. Production of cereals, particularly maize, the major staple, is estimated to be above the five-year average by 57 percent and the previous season by 200 percent in Arusha Region, and by 13 percent and 165 percent, respectively, in Kilimanjaro Region. Further analyses of production data showed better harvests of pulses, other non-cereal crops, and traditional cash crops in 2000/01 than in 1999/2000.

Table 1: Comparative Total Food Production 2000/01 2000/01 2000/01 2000/01 Percent Percent 2000/01 1995/96-99/00 Difference Difference Difference Difference Region Metric 1999/2000 Average from from from from Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons 1999/01 (MT) Average (MT) Average 1999/2000 Arusha 591,602 211,073 457,455 380,528 134,146 29 180 Kilimanjaro 443,009 274,020 414,151 168,989 28,859 7 62 Source of Data: District Agricultural and Livestock Offices (DALDO), July 2001

Analyses of food requirements to obtain the standard 2,100 Kcal per person per day during the 2001/02 (June-May) market year reveal overall significant improvements in food availability to households over last year — that is, average households in the districts in these two regions have more months of food availability relative to the last market year, even after allowing for sales and other uses (Tables 2a and 2b).

Also, satisfactory rains during the season improved regeneration of grazing, fodder, and browse and recharged water sources, subsequently ameliorating livestock conditions and productivity in

Tanzania Food Security Report: August 15, 2001 2 milk supply, body weight, and calving rates. Livestock sales are normal, while prices are considerably higher than last year by a range of 6-21 percent.

Table 2a: Food-Security Conditions for 2001/02 Market Year for Arusha Region

Food Crop Months of Food Needs Population Food Needs Produced Anticipated Met from Own Alternative Sources of Food District 2001/02 Per Month Less Other Sales MT Production and Income Market Year 2001/02 MT Uses MT 2001/02 2000/01 Urban wages; sales of coffee, vegetables, fruits and barley; Arumeru 486,900 53,430 6,273 8,690 6.1 1.1 agropastoralists agropastoralist consumption and sales of animals and animal products Arusha 245,867 7,614 859 4,388 1.7 1.7 Urban wages; sales of coffee, vegetables, and fruits Sales of coffee, cotton, and sunflowers; Babati 340,200 88,178 18,239 6,072 14.5 8.9 agropastoralist consumption and sales of animals and animal products Sales of barley; wage labor (NAFCO); Hanang 185,872 80,532 17,378 3,317 24.3 4.0 agropastoralist consumption and sales of animals and animal products Sales of coffee, barley, onions and sunflowers; agropastoralist Karatu 172,148 32,429 4,623 3,072 10.6 8.0 consumption and sales of animals and animal products; wage products; labor (coffee estates) 25% pastoralists, 75% agropastoralists: consumption and sale Kiteto 177,570 26,966 5,096 3,169 8.5 6.6 of animals and animal wage labor on large farms Sales of barley, onions, garlic, coffee; Mbulu 243,873 88,837 20,744 4,352 20.4 2.3 agropastoralist consumption and sale of animals and animal products >30% pastoralists, others agropastoralists; consumption of Monduli 183,744 70,209 9,243 3,279 21.4 2.4 animals and animal products; sales of coffee More than 50% pastoralists, others agropastoralists: consumption and sale Ngorongoro 116,489 13,969 2,517 2,079 6.7 1.7 of animals and animal products; wage labor from Ngorongoro Conservation Authority >30% pastoralists, others Simanjiro 177,570 20,909 3,413 3,169 6.6 3.0 agropastoralists; wage labor in mining and contract bean seed farms; fishing Region 2,330,231 483,072 88,385 41,588 11.6 3.9

Tanzania Food Security Report: August 15, 2001 3 Table 2b: Food-Security Conditions for 2001/02 Market Year for Kilimanjaro Region

Food Crop Population Food Needs Months of Months of Produced Anticipated Alternative Sources of Food District 2001/02 Per Month Food Needs Food Needs Less Other Sales MT and Income Market Year 2001/02 MT Met 2001/02 Met 2000/01 Uses MT

Wages; sales of coffee, irrigated vegetables, fruits and barley; Hai 235,928 138,897 29,952 4,211 33.0 16.5 agropastoralist consumption and sale of animals and animal products Moshi 683,035 95,640 25,991 12,190 7.8 7.3 Wages, sales of coffee, vegetables and fruits; remittances Mwanga 129,763 13,694 2,952 2,316 5.9 4.0 Sales of livestock Rombo 283,851 70,531 6,717 5,066 13.9 3.7 Sales of coffee; remittances Same 227,053 35,026 9,132 4,052 8.6 7.0 Sales of livestock Region 1,559,630 312,637 74,744 27,835 11.2 7.7

The supply of primary staples, mainly maize and beans, and secondary staples such as bananas, cassava, potatoes, and vegetables, in the regions is adequate and is reflected by low market prices. Declining prices of staples and increasing or stabilizing prices of livestock are providing increasingly favorable terms of trade for people selling livestock and purchasing food. These favorable terms of trade further stabilize the food security of livestock-dependent households (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Number of Bags of Maize (100 kg) that Can Be Bought from the Sale of One Average Bull in (Arusha Region)

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APRIL

MARCH

MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY 2001 6 7 8 12 14 2000 3 5 10 8 7

FEWS Net/Tanzania Source of Data: DALDO Offices, July 2001

Tanzania Food Security Report: August 15, 2001 4 Even for districts with poor production, the majority of households should have sufficient food supplies from different income sources between June 2001 and the next expected short rains (vuli season) harvest in February/March 2002. Therefore, the 2001/02 vuli season requires monitoring as its performance will be very important in consolidating the improved food security conditions in the two regions.

Even though declining current food crop prices benefit consumers, they could hurt producers on the grounds that the prices offered do not compensate for the cost of purchased variable production inputs such as improved seeds and fertilizers. Low farm prices are probably temporary as prices are expected to rise later in the year.

National Current Food Security Conditions and Outlook

Food access in both rural and urban markets is satisfactory and prices of food staples declined or stabilized in July in most markets compared with previous years. On the other hand, prices of livestock are showing upward trends while sales are normal relative to last year, subsequently increasing the purchasing power of livestock keepers.

Because a nationwide crop and food supply survey to be conducted by the Food Security Information Team (FSIT) did not take place in July due to lack of funds, detailed food security assessments have not and are not likely to be done for some time. The assessments would have placed district and sub-district levels into food security categories in the 2001/02 market year as a way to guide response planning. However, reports from agricultural offices in the field indicate adequate availability and access of food staples — at household levels and in both rural and urban markets — owing to the completed or ongoing harvests and the normal dry conditions, which have increased supplies and facilitated movements of food from surplus to deficit areas.

Livestock conditions across the country are satisfactory as pasture and water are adequate even during this seasonably dry period. The Marketing Development Bureau (MDB) reports show higher livestock prices in primary and secondary markets across the country compared with last year.

Analysis of prices of food commodities collected by MDB reveals mixed trends in reference markets. They indicate lower or stable prices of beans due to above-average production of the crop in the key growing areas in the country. Conversely, the analysis shows declining trends in maize prices in Arusha and Dar es Salaam markets and rising prices in Shinyanga and Sumbawanga markets (Figure 2).

Tanzania Food Security Report: August 15, 2001 5 Figure 2: Percent Difference in Wholesale Prices of Maize in Reference Markets

50 Jul-01 Vs Jun-01 40 Jul-01 Vs Jul-00 30 Jul-01 Vs 96-00 Avg

20

10

0

-10 Percent Change -20

-30

-40

-50 Arusha Dar es Salaam Sumbawanga Shinyanga

FEWS Net/Tanzania Source of Data: MDB, Dar es Salaam

Because of abundant supplies from producing regions, maize prices declined 36 percent in Dar es Salaam between June and July. Good production in Arusha Region and the apparently reduced cross-border trade between Arusha and due to unattractive net profit margins in generally could account for the price drop of 30 percent in Arusha in July relative to June. An increase in prices of maize in the Sumbawanga market () is welcome news to producers in those areas who normally get very low prices for their produce. Nevertheless, maize prices in the Sumbawanga market are still the lowest in the country. An increase of 12 percent in the prices of maize in the Shinyanga market in July relative to June should not cause concerns at this moment, but continued monitoring of market prices is necessary to determine whether the upward trend will continue.

Tanzania Food Security Report: August 15, 2001 6