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A Comparative Analysis City of Los Angeles: A Comparative Analysis June 2017 City of Los Angeles: A Comparative Analysis This publication was prepared for: Montague DeRose and Associates on behalf of the City of Los Angeles This publication was prepared by: Beacon Economics Christopher Thornberg Robert Kleinhenz Founding Partner Executive Director of Research 5777 West Century Boulevard, Suite 895 5777 West Century Boulevard, Suite 895 Los Angeles, California 90045 Los Angeles, California 90045 310.571.3399 424.646.4652 [email protected] [email protected] Bryan Castro Hoyu Chong Clarissa Paik Research Associate Research Associate Research Analyst [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] For further information about this publication please contact: Victoria Pike Bond Rick Smith Director of Communications Director of Business Development Beacon Economics, LLC Beacon Economics, LLC 415.457.6030 858.997.1834 [email protected] [email protected] Or visit our website at www.BeaconEcon.com. Reproduction of this document or any portion therein is prohibited without the expressed written permission of Beacon Economics. Copyright ©2017 by Beacon Economics LLC. Contents Overview 1 Highlights 2 Employment 5 Business Activity 7 Residential Real Estate 16 Commercial Real Estate 20 Demographics 24 Beacon Economics Comparative Analysis Overview The City of Los Angeles is in the midst of a renaissance, with no shortage of economic opportunities on the horizon. Despite California’s reputation for being "anti-business," Los Angeles continues to be a significant source of Califor- nia’s growth. The vast majority of indicators show that 2016 was a good economic year and that economic growth will extend into 2017. A key area of ongoing strength in the City of Los Angeles is growth in the labor market. As the U.S. economy contin- ues into its current expansion, the City’s labor market will continue to inch towards full employment. In addition, wages are increasing across most industries. More Angelenos will see their hours and earnings increase this year, and more will find full-time employment. In general, the City has regained the economic activity that was lost during the Great Recession. Despite concerns over China and weak global demand, the economy keeps moving forward. Many local industries are expanding their job bases. Trade through the ports has picked up compared to the previous year. Even so, there are concerns about the types of job gains, especially middle-wage jobs, and the adequacy of the wage increases that accompany these jobs. Los Angeles has set a tourism record for the sixth year in a row. Both hotel daily rates and average occupancy rates have increased. Downtown is a huge new center of social activity, restaurants are booming across the City, and the hotels are busy. Los Angeles offers some of the world's greatest attractions, and for this reason the City is one of the two finalists to host the 2024 Summer Olympic Games. Demand for housing is now stronger than it has been at any other point during the current economic expansion, due in large part to the improved state of household finances and historically low interest rates. Many households have turned to the City’s rental market for housing needs, making it one of the hottest rental markets in the nation. Yet, with higher home prices and apartment rents, Los Angeles once again finds itself facing a chronic and persistent problem: Housing prices have escalated faster than incomes, resulting in a heavier housing cost burden for many Angelenos. While Los Angeles has experienced outmigration due to the high cost of living, particularly for housing, inbound entrants to Los Angeles tend to be wealthier than outbound migrants. The City will continue to face major obstacles - from within and from the current federal administration - to maintain its prosperity. However, the outlook is highly positive going forward. City of Los Angeles: A Comparative Analysis 1 Beacon Economics Comparative Analysis Highlights County and City Total Private Employment Los Angeles, Q1-08 to Q2-16 Employment 2.4 1.4 Wages in the City of Los Angeles grew at a rate of 4%, double the rate of growth for the rest of 2.2 the County. As the economic recovery continues, 1.3 wages are increasing across most industries. City Employment(Millions) 2.0 1.2 Q1-08 Q1-10 Q1-12 Q1-14 Q1-16 Total private employment in the City of Los Ange- County BalanceEmployment (Millions) LA County Balance LA City les grew 1.4% from the second quarter of 2015 to Source: California Employment Development Department,QCEW the second quarter of 2016. Business Activity With the unemployment rate on the decline, busi- nesses are hiring and consumers continue to Taxable Sales City of Los Angeles and Los Angeles County, Q1-00 to Q4-16 spend more of their incomes in the local economy. 28 12 Taxable sales have grown 39.1% since reaching a 26 11 low in the second quarter of 2009. 24 10 22 9 Taxable sales for the City of Los Angeles increased by 4.4% from the fourth quarter of 2015 to the 20 8 18 7 fourth quarter of 2016, outperforming other ma- Sales ($Billions, SA) Taxable City County Taxable Sales ($Billions,SA) Taxable County Q1-00 Q1-02 Q1-04 Q1-06 Q1-08 Q1-10 Q1-12 Q1-14 Q1-16 jor cities in Southern California such as the City of Los Angeles County Balance Los Angeles City Long Beach (+0.7%), the City of Riverside (+3.1%), Source: California Board of Equalization the City of Santa Ana (+2.2%), and the City of Ana- heim (-0.7%). Tourism Los Angeles Airport Passenger Flows Through its attractions, experiences, and cul- 2007 to 2016 tures, Los Angeles continues to be a destination of 80 choice for tourists. In 2016, nearly 23 million in- ternational passengers traveled through LAX, an 60 increase of 11.2% from 2015, along with the 58 mil- 40 lion domestic passengers also traveling through LAX, up 8.4% from 2015. Millions of Passengers 20 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Known not only as the largest railroad passenger Domestic International terminal in the Western United States, Los An- Source: Visit California geles' Union Station is the busiest California Am- trak station with 1.64 million riders in 2016, a 2.9% growth compared to 1.59 million riders in 2015. City of Los Angeles: A Comparative Analysis 2 Beacon Economics Comparative Analysis Commercial Real Estate New Commercial Permits City of Los Angeles and County Balance, 2007 to 2016 Strong business activity and foreign investment 2.0 have led to growth in commercial real estate in 1.5 the City of Los Angeles in recent years. Renova- tions of older buildings has driven commercial de- 1.0 velopment in the City of Los Angeles since the pas- 0.5 sage of the Adaptive Reuse Ordinance in 1999. In ($Billions) Permit Values 2016, nonresidential alteration permit values filed 0.0 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 in the City rose 27.4% to $1.6 billion, representing L.A. County Balance L.A. City 65% of all nonresidential investment overall. Source: California Homebuilding Foundation Vacancy rates fell 0.7% between the fourth quar- ter of 2015 and the fourth quarter of 2016 for office properties in the City, compared to a 2.7% decline in the County Balance. Residential Real Estate Median Price for Existing Single-Family Homes City of Los Angeles, Q4-06 to Q4-16 The median price for existing single-family homes 650 has increased significantly in the City of Los Ange- 550 les, just as it has for other cities in Southern Cali- fornia. The L.A. Median grew by 8.5% from 2015 to 450 2016 reaching $641,000, while the County balance 350 median grew by 7.4% over the same time period. Median Price ($000s, SA) 250 Due to strong homebuyer demand and low supply Q4-06 Q4-08 Q4-10 Q4-12 Q4-14 Q4-16 L.A. County Balance City of L.A. of homes, many potential homebuyers are reluc- Source: DataQuick tantly shifting to the rental market. The average monthly apartment rent in the City of Los Angeles reached $1,833 in the fourth quarter of 2016. Demographics Despite high costs of housing, the City of Los An- Population Growth geles has remained an attractive labor market City of Los Angeles and Los Angeles County Balance, 1990 to 2017 120 for young adults aged 20 to 29 years, who com- prise the largest cohorts by age, and constitute the 115 largest share of migrants to the County. 110 The City of Los Angeles has been a disproportion- Index = 100in 1990 105 ate contributor to population growth and has ac- counted for more than one in two residents added 100 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 since 2010. It has outpaced the rest of the County L.A. City L.A. County Balance with a growth rate of 6.3% during that time, com- Source: California Department of Finance pared to 3.1% in the rest of the County. City of Los Angeles: A Comparative Analysis 3 Beacon Economics Comparative Analysis Port Activity Total Trade by Value of Commodities (Imports and Exports) Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, 2003 to 2016 Despite a strong U.S. dollar, export activities were 300 up in 2016 for both the Port of Los Angeles (+3.1%) 250 and the Port of Long Beach (+4.5%), reversing the 200 disappointing performance in 2015 motivated in 150 part by labor strikes at the ports. Total Value, $Billions Value, Total 100 50 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 The total value of imports to both ports in 2016 to- year taled $296.5 billion, a 0.5% decrease compared to Port of Los Angeles Port of Long Beach 2015 values.
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