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Alaska Legislative Digest - Commentary on Alaska Issues

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Alaska Legislative Digest - Commentary on Alaska Issues Bradners’ Alaska Legislative Digest - Commentary on Alaska Issues Publishers: Mike Bradner, Tim Bradner (907) 440-6068 / 3037 South Circle Anchorage, AK 99507 / Fax: (907) 345-5683 Digest No. 39/20 August 31, 2020 Republican primary bloodleting leaves House and Senate leaderships in question The primary election was a bloodletting among Republican leaders, and while Republi- cans may command House and Senate organizations next year there may not be organizations that prove very functional in key decision-making. There’s still a general election in front of us but the Senate appears to have a likely split of seven Democrats and nine “regular” Repub- licans, with four Republicans as a part of the present Senate coalition (Stedman, Stevens, von Imhof, and Bishop). The question is what these four choose to do, and if they are brought into the new Republican organization, and on what basis. The core nine Republicans: The Senate Republican majority at this time (pre-general election) would seem to include: Senators Mia Costello, Anchorage; Josh Revak, Anchorage; Lora Reinbold, Eagle River; Mike Shower, Mat-Su; David Wilson, Mat-Su; Shelley Hughes, Mat-Su; Peter Miccichi, of Kenai; incoming Sen. Robert Meyers of Fairbanks (replacing Sen. Coghill) and incoming Sen. Roger Holland, of Anchorage (replacing Sen. Giessel). What the Senate leadership will really look like is unclear. However, it will likely be linked closely to Gov. Mike Dunleavy and his druthers. The House could be closely split: In the 40-member House there appears to be a solid core of 17 Democrats and a solid core of 16 Republicans, but with seven members in the middle who were part of the present House coalition or are in races in contest in November. The best that Democrats can do is 20 members, which would leave the House split 20-20. There are three highly competitive races in the general election: Between Rep. Mel Gillis, R-Anchorage (appointed), in District 25 in mid-town Anchorage, and Democratic challenger Calvin Schrage; a race in Anchorage District 15, where Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux lost to Re- publican challenger David Nelson. He will face Democrat Frank Lynn in the General Elec- tion. This is a toss-up race in a district where turnout is usually very low. - Continued on next page Our reports are protected by Copyright. Please do not forward to others without permission. © COPYRIGHT Email: [email protected] More on House races. - Continued from previous page There is also a highly competitive race in East Anchorage District 27 between Re- publican House Minority Leader Lance Pruitt and Democratic challenger Liz Snyder. In 2018 only 200 votes separated these two. In the primary Pruitt polled 1,919 and Snyder 1,904. There is also a seat left open in District 6, Interior Alaska. There are also several other seats left open in Anchorage due to the defeat of House Coalition Rules Chair Chuck Kopp, a Republican, and that of House Coalition Finance Chair Jennifer Johnston, also a Republican. However, these are likely to be filled by Republicans. Dunleavy will have his way, maybe! While we have a general election in front of us, it is likely Gov. Dunleavy will have his way in most cases on legislation. Still, those House and Senate Republicans that survived the bloodletting will have a say, if they wish. Senate survivors have four year terms in front of them, and House survivors will be up for election in two years as will Gov. Dun- leavy. Organizations tip toward Mat-Su No doubt House and Senate leaderships will tip toward Mat-Su House and Senate members. Of the nine non-coalition Republican senators four come from the Mat-Su. Practical politics suggests that present House and Senate coalition members will be drawn into the regular Republican majorities, but the question is on what basis. The rhetoric of the super dividend In the coming election debates we may hear a lot of rhetoric about the Permanent Fund dividend, the so-called “pfd,” as well as the governor’s super dividend (making up past shortages under the formula). However, this may not fit well with the percentage of mar- ket draw (5%) from the unallocated Earnings Reserve of the Permanent Fund. Our appe- tite for a “pay me now,” dividend and the ability of the Permanent Fund to support both the dividend and public services may be at risk in the decisions of the next two years. We also face uncertain oil prices, presently lingering in the low-$45/bbl. range in June and July. No one seems to be talking about oil prices, the crash to $16.54/bbl. in April and the fact oil prices really haven’t rebounded. Prices were $65/bbl. a year ago. Our budget issues are complex, not easily discussed in the election dialogue. On the other hand, the dividend is simple: “I want my money”. Page 2 Alaska Legislative Digest No. 39/20 Given Dunleavy’s past policies, who is in trouble? - Continued from previous page Given his House and Senate majorities we can expect the governor to continue his past budget policies, such as shifting costs from the state to local governments, including an end of local school construction debt support. No relief is likely for the university and schools despite the impacts of the pandemic. We see no relief for the the ferry system. Where is the Finance experience? What will be critical is the makeup and leadership of the House and Senate Finance committees. In the Senate, the finance experience of Sen. Bert Stedman and Sen. Natasha von Imhof is likely to be neglected. The present Senate Finance Committee is made up of coalition Republicans and Democrats, except for Sen. David Wilson, R-Mat-Su. He was also challenged in the primary attacks by conservatives, but won. In the House, the 11-member House Finance Committees will lose its cochair Rep. Jennifer Johnston and five of the other members who are coalition members.We doubt that a Republican majority would continue with the other current cochair, Rep. Neal Fos- ter, D-Nome. Existing Republican members not part of the coalition are Rep. Kelly Mer- rick, R-Eagle River; Rep. Ben Carpenter, R-North Kenai, Rep. Colleen Sullivan-Leon- ard, R- Mat-Su, and Rep. Cathy Tilton, R-Mat-Su. These four have a good shot to remain on the committee. There are other Democrats than Foster on the House Finance Commit- tee, too, such as Rep. Andy Josephson, who faced no primary opposition. Federal level changes . There’s lots more to be written about where we’re headed and who may take us there. We also face possible changes on the federal level that can have an impact on our state. - More in upcoming reports! Subscription info or questions Legislative Digest and Alaska Economic Report Contact: Tim Bradner at (907) 440-6068 - [email protected] Mike Bradner at (907) 242-6572 - [email protected] Page 3 Alaska Legislative Digest No. 39/20.
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