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The Impact of U.S. Efforts to Promote Regional Cooperation Among the Five Post-Soviet

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The Impact of U.S. Efforts to Promote Regional Cooperation Among the Five Post-Soviet The Impact of U.S. Efforts to Promote Regional Cooperation among the Five Post-Soviet Central Asian States on Social and Economic Stability of the Central Asian Region A thesis presented to the faculty of the Center for International Studies of Ohio University In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Master of Arts Sevara Sharapova June 2010 © 2010 Sevara Sharapova. All Rights Reserved. 2 This thesis titled The Impact of U.S. Efforts to Promote Regional Cooperation among the Five Post-Soviet Central Asian States on Social and Economic Stability of the Central Asian Region by SEVARA SHARAPOVA has been approved for the Center for International Studies by _____________________________ Jie-Li Li Associate Professor of Sociology and Antropology ___________________________ Thomas A.Smucker Director, International Development Studies ___________________________ Daniel Weiner Executive Director, Center for International Studies 3 Abstract SEVARA SHARAPOVA, M.A., June 2010, International Development Studies The Impact of U.S. Efforts to Promote Regional Cooperation among the Five Post-Soviet Central Asian States on Social and Economic Stability of the Central Asian Region (126 pp.) Director of Thesis: Jie-Li Li The purpose of this study was to investigate U.S. activities in post-Soviet Central Asia and their impact on regional economic and social stability. The analysis of the U.S. policy in CA is informed by the careful examination of a.) legal documents and testimonies, b.) statistics, and c.) interviews with experts. The U.S. carries out its policy mainly through the State Department and the Department of Defense in the region as well as the U.S. Trade Representative. Therefore, these bodies’ documents are presented and analyzed in this thesis. The results revealed that the U.S. does not focus currently on the development of regionalism in post-Soviet CA. Although there is an on-going dialogue about the importance of economic stability for the promotion of CA expressed by the U.S. officials working with CA, in fact the U.S. activities mostly focus on the achievement of the goals of the U.S. in Afghanistan. To this end, U.S. supports the promotion of the idea of Wider CA. Approved: ______________________________________________________________ Jie-Li Li Associate Professor of Sociology and Antropology 4 Acknowledgment First of all, I would like to thank my parents who have been always my role models in life. My deepest gratitude goes to Dr. Li, my advisor and the chair of my thesis committee. His guidance, invaluable comments and suggestions regarding the structure of my thesis and its methods made it possible for this thesis to be completed. I have always felt Dr. Li’s support; this support and trust was an important motivation for me to work harder and achieve my goal. I also would like to thank Prof. Choppin and Dr. Lskavyan, the committee members, for the time they spent working with me, their advice and suggestions. I want to thank Dr. Mosher from the Political Science Department for the feedback on the theoretical part of my thesis, as well as Farrid Mommand, the Afghan graduate student for his comments and recommendations. Research for this thesis was supported in part by a grant from the Edmund S. Muskie Graduate Fellowship Program, a program of the Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs (ECA) of the United States Department of State, implemented by IREX (International Research & Exchanges Board). I deeply appreciate the support that I have always obtained from Rachel Surkin and Ian Jobe, IREX staff who coordinate the Muskie Program in the U.S. The views expressed are the author’s own and do not represent the Muskie Program or the U.S. Department of State. 5 Table of Contents Page Abstract ............................................................................................................................... 3 Acknowledgment ................................................................................................................ 4 List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... 6 List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... 7 Chapter 1: Introduction ....................................................................................................... 8 1.1. Purpose of the Thesis ............................................................................................. 10 1.2. Theoretical Approaches to Regionalism, Security and Development .................... 11 1.3. Relevant Theory ..................................................................................................... 18 1.4. Research Methods .................................................................................................. 20 Chapter 2: Literature Review ............................................................................................ 25 2.1. The Influence of the U.S. on Development ............................................................ 26 2.2. Literature on the U.S. Interests in CA .................................................................... 30 2.3. Literature on the U.S. Bilateral Relationship with CA countries ........................... 40 2.4. Literature on the Transitional Models of CA Countries ........................................ 44 2.5. Literature Devoted to Regional Cooperation ......................................................... 47 2.6. Methods Applied in the Research on the U.S. Presence in CA ............................. 51 Chapter 3: Regional Profile of Post-Soviet Central Asia .................................................. 55 3.1. Lack of Experience of Intraregional Interstate Relations ....................................... 58 3.2. Economic Regimes and Economic Capabilities of the Central Asian Countries ... 62 4.1. Security Cooperation .............................................................................................. 74 4.2. Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) .......................................... 85 4.3. Experts’ Opinions regarding U.S. Policy in CA .................................................... 93 Chapter 5: Discussion/Conclusion .................................................................................. 101 References ....................................................................................................................... 113 6 List of Tables Page Table 1. GDP Growth (percentage). .................................................................................65 Table 2. Inflation. GDP Deflator (annual %). ..................................................................65 Table 3. GDP per Capita Growth (in %). ...........................................................................66 Table 4. GNI per Capita, Atlas method (current US$) ......................................................66 Table 5. Foreign Direct Investment, Net Inflows (% of GDP) ..........................................67 Table 6. Aid Percentage of GNI .......................................................................................67 7 List of Figures Page Figure 1. External and Internal Factors Influencing the Pace of Regionalism ..................13 Figure 2. The Link between External Relations in Security and Regional Cooperation and Economic and Social Stability ...........................................................................................23 Figure 3. FY 2008 Areas of Focus ...................................................................................84 Figure 4. FY 2009 Areas of Focus ....................................................................................84 8 “Once their security is taken care of, countries can devote themselves with more confidence to their long-term evolution” Javier Solana, former NATO Secretary General (as cited in Blank, 2001, p. 129) Chapter 1: Introduction Central Asia (CA)i is an extremely significant area for its impact on world history and politics. It is a place whose spiritual importance could be compared with Jerusalem in how major religions intersect with each other and coexist in CA. The region is located in a geopolitically significant area and has abundant mineral resources, including such strategic ones as oil and gas. This makes local countries attractive to great powers influencing, in turn, the competition among them, resulting in the division of CA into spheres of influence. Taking into account local countries’ vulnerability, relatively smaller size in comparison with the countries surrounding them and closeness to each other in historical, cultural, and religious terms, ignoring the benefits of regional cooperation would be the wrong choice because of its negative influence on these countries’ social and economic stability. Although regional cooperation seems to be the best option for CA countries, the idea of regional cooperation has not become the reality. Several attempts aimed at promoting regional cooperation in CA have failed because of the combination of internal and external factors. The outside countries competing with each other over the geopolitical influence in the region and interest in processing mineral resources of CA have not seen any advantage to promoting regional cooperation. CA countries, in turn, have competed for the attention of outside countries so as to gain political and economic benefits. In addition, the unstable situation in
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