WEEKLY REPORT 5 – 11 February 2021

KEY DYNAMICS

Bread and currency crises 2

Bread crisis continues in government-controlled areas ...... 2

Syrian Pound hits all-time low ...... 4

Government negotiations ...... 4

Syrian government and Dar‘a Committees reach agreement ...... 4

Education in the northwest ...... 6

Teachers strike in western ...... 6

New Turkish colleges open in northern Aleppo ...... 7

Deir-ez-Zor security ...... 8

Assassinations continue in eastern Deir-ez-Zor ...... 8

ISIS attack Al-Taim station southeast of Deir-ez-Zor ...... 9

MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS WEEKLY REPORT, 5 – 11 February 2021  1 Bread and currency crises yeast, making it inedible. In , queues at bakeries are longer. While government bakeries Bread crisis continues to in the capital are opening on a daily basis, unlike worsen in government- the remaining governorates, citizens in some controlled areas neighborhoods are forced to wait approximately five hours to receive a bread packet, and reduced The bread crisis continues to worsen in Syrian flour allotments mean that some citizens may government-controlled areas, increasing wait for hours without receiving their bread. bakeries’ inability to operate and reducing bread supply. Low wheat imports an ongoing issue The cause of the continuing shortages are In Rural Damascus, local sources reported that related to the reduction in imported wheat. bakeries located in Eastern Ghouta have only According to import numbers given by Youssef received 60% of their flour allotments. This has Qassem, general manager of the General resulted in an insufficient flour supply causing Establishment for Grain in (Hoboob) on 2 bakeries to open for only three days a week, and February (seen in Table 1), the number of wheat for only two hours a day on average (as opposed imports between 2019 and 2020 had decreased to the pre-crisis eight hours). In Dar’a, bakery by 44%. Since then, the Syrian government has opening hours are similar to Rural Damascus, struggled to secure larger quantities of wheat while bread has become scarcer. Local sources imports, failing to secure approximately six have reported that bread packets have been wheat tenders. halved in quantity, reduced from eight loaves to four. In As-Sweida, local sources have reported Government schemes for resolution that the quality of bread, particularly bread produced in government bakeries in city The government in Damascus has continued to (Shahba subdistrict) has deteriorated further strive for increasing imports, using a three- due to the continued use of expired flour and pronged strategy.

Table 1: Syrian government wheat imports (Source: General Establishment for grain in Syria)

Year Imports (tonnes) Percentage change

2019 1,200,000

2020 675,000 - 44%

2021 (Projected) 650,0001 - 4%

1 Includes contracts for 400,000 tonnes conducted this year in addition to the receipt of 250,000 tonnes from contracts conducted last year.

MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS WEEKLY REPORT, 5 – 11 February 2021  2 First, the government continues to issue wheat providing fertilizer and seeds on the condition tenders to fulfill its demands. The government that they are used solely for wheat production. In issued its first tender of the year on 11 January, terms of policy, the governorates’ respective for 200,000 tonnes, paid in US dollars with a Directorates of Agriculture have implemented bidding set at 18 January. The status of the extensive plans to maximize wheat production. tender remains unclear, however, the For example, the head of the directorate in government then issued another tender with the government-held Aleppo stated on 1 February same specifications on 7 February (with a that 84% of its expansive plan to grow wheat in bidding deadline of 15 February). It is possible 204,738 hectares had been achieved. the second tender was an indication of the failure of the first: It may also be due to the Finally, the government has been working on knowledge that Russian wheat is set to become intensifying pre-existing anti-corruption more expensive (and so Damascus is purchasing measures to combat waste of wheat and flour cheap stock while it is still able to).2 On 26 supplies. Tala Barazi, domestic trade and January, the Russian government reportedly consumer protection minister, stated in announced the imposition of an export tax of December 2020 that a new law against illicit $30 per tonne of wheat, from 15 February to 1 trading or distribution of bread would be March which would be increased later to $61 introduced, with punishments of three months from March until June.3 to five years of hard labor for those illegaly trading government bread or selling packets In addition, the government is focusing on under the government-mandated 1,000 g weight increasing local production to meet its annual restriction. The minister later added that illicit need of 2.5 million tonnes. This is following a bread trading had increased by 420% in the last bumper year for locally produced wheat which year alone. Ministry patrols have given over 890 has become increasingly important, making up fines since the beginning of the year relating to 51% of wheat supply in government-held areas quality of bread production, selling bread in 2020. To support local growers, Damascus has reportedly prioritized the agricultural sector in You might have missed; diesel distribution, subsidies and policy. Farmers in Dar‘a governorate have received more than  Syrian government siege on Dar’a 90% of their allotted agricultural diesel supplied  SDF siege on Syrian government by the government in the midst of an ongoing fuel crisis, while agricultural subsidies are now  Regional economies and COVID-19 primarily focused on the wheat sector: Since  Depreciation, wages and affordability December 2020, agricultural cooperatives operating in Dar‘a governorate have been

2 Russia is Syria’s main wheat exporter. 3 The export tax increase is reportedly part of the Russian government’s plan to combat the price increase of food items.

MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS WEEKLY REPORT, 5 – 11 February 2021  3 packets on the black market, and selling bread have caused a surge in the supply of the pound, below the weight restriction. Despite this, local causing it to decrease in value. sources report that black market trading of bread and flour allotments have continued Third, local sources have reported that within unabated. the two-week period of recent depreciation, the Syrian government conducted a crackdown on Syrian Pound hits all-time low currency exchanges and informal monetary transfer agencies (IMTAs). Approximately 14 On 7 February, the Syrian pound depreciated to exchanges and agencies were reportedly closed its lowest point. It began its unprecedented down by government security and intelligence descent on 24 January, dropping 11% from agencies, with local sources adding that 2,960 to 3,300 SYP per USD. The drop coincided customers who had used their services had been with the introduction of the Central Bank’s new unknowingly placed under surveillance. IMTAs 5,000 SYP bank note, the highest denomination and currency exchanges have become key to date. sources of US dollars in Syria after President Assad issued decree 3/2020 in January 2020 There are three possible reasons for the prohibiting the use of foreign currency in depreciation. financial transactions. The closure of said First, the introduction of the 5,000 SYP may be a locations may have resulted in a decrease in US sign that the government considers the recent dollar supply causing demand and consequently increase in inflation a fait accompli; a new fact the value of the currency to rise vis-à-vis the that it needs to live with. Indeed, the last time the pound. Syrian government introduced a high Government negotiations denomination banknote, the 2,000 SYP, was in July 2017 following approximately a 139 % Syrian government and Dar‘a depreciation in the value of the currency the Central Committees reach previous year; it never recovered. Similarly, the 5,000 SYP bank note comes after a 222% agreement depreciation of the pound over the previous On 9 February, fighter and combat vehicle units year. This may have further reduced confidence from the Syrian Arab Army’s 4th Division in the Syrian pound, making demand for the entered farmland south of city, currency decrease. accompanied by representatives from Central Committees in Dar’a. The units reportedly Second, the Central Bank of Syria may not have removed pre-existing currency on introduction entered the area as part of an agreement of the 5,000 SYP, thereby introducing increasing between the Syrian government, Dar’a Central amounts of the pound into circulation. This Committees and Russian representatives which means that the injection of large quantities of granted permission to search the area for a 5,000 SYP bank notes into the market might period of 15 days before withdrawing.

MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS WEEKLY REPORT, 5 – 11 February 2021  4 The parties had reportedly met the previous day Central Committees to refuse his invitation for to discuss outstanding concerns within the another meeting, further delaying a resolution. governorate, had come to an agreement on a number of issues, as follows; 1) wanted In order to expedite the process, the government individuals would leave western Dar‘a under the has seemingly opted to both put pressure on and sponsorship of their respective tribes; 2) that the incentivize the Central Committees. On 2 Central Committees are neither obliged to hand February, government forces relocated 40 over any wanted individual nor force anyone to fighters from the Syrian Arab Army’s 61st leave for the opposition-held north; 3) former Brigade and 4th Division to the directorate of agriculture’s cow farm located between Mzeireb opposition forces would hand over medium weapons;4 4) 4th Division units would be allowed township and Tafas city, turning it into a military to search farmland south of Tafas city; 5) base. On 6 February, 50 pro-Iranian militia subdistrict police headquarters would be fighters were deployed to Dar‘a city along with reopened, in addition to government institutions their combat vehicles. The new deployments and including the agricultural and cement building in repositioning look to be warnings to the Tafas city. potential use of military force. However, the government, allegedly under Russian pressure, Carrots and sticks? has also sought to appease the Central Committees. On 8 February, prior to the The path to reaching the agreement was not agreement’s announcement, approximately 61 simple. Damascus had set a deadline by which detainees from Dar’a were released from the Central Committees were expected to carry captivity. Local sources later noted that the out their demands, however on failure to do so, majority of those released were captured after the government’s security committee then held the July 2018 reconciliation agreement and that an internal meeting the next day. In the meeting, their relatives had to pay between $1,500 to General Hussam Luqa, head of the security $2,000 to secure their release. committee accused the Central Committees of being affiliates with the Muslim Brotherhood. Struggle continued covertly Simultaneously, the Russians reportedly met with the Central Committees in ’ township While an eerie calm has now taken over, small- (Izra’ subdsitrict) to de-escalate the situation and scale fighting between both sides appears to prevent a government military offensive. have continued covertly. On the evening of 1 However, Luqa’s statement prompted the February, an IED exploded near the headquarters of former-opposition commander Mohamad Jad-allah al-Zo’bi5 in Yadudeh

4 The government asked for one mortar, one 14.5 anti-aircraft gun, and two rocket-propelled grenade launchers to be handed over. Of note, these weapons were observed being used in the 14 January tribal clashes in Tafas city. 5 Mohamad Jad-allah al-Zo’bi is one of six former opposition commanders which the Syrian government demanded be relocated to the opposition-held north on its 25 January meeting with the Central Committees.

MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS WEEKLY REPORT, 5 – 11 February 2021  5 township (Mzeireb subdistrict). The next day, an remain unclear and it is possible that they may IED targeted 4th Division headquarters near not end up leaving western Dar‘a. Additionally, Mzeireb township (Mzeireb subdistrict) the amount of weapons demanded by the wounding several fighters. On 5 February, government is only a small fraction of the actual former-opposition commander Ahmad Najah amount that former-opposition forces have in Adghim was assassinated in Dar‘a city. Two days their stores. Moreover, while government later, a bomb-laden motorbike exploded near institutions and the police have re-entered the entrance of the 15th Brigade base in Ankhal Tafas, government security and intelligence township (As-Sanamayn subdistrict) killing two have not. A potential side-effect of the government fighters. agreement is that it could increase the number of government informants with the influx of Agreement unlikely to significantly government employees and policemen into the disturb status quo city resulting from the re-opening of government institutions and the subdistrict’s police When negotiations between both sides were headquarters. taking place, representatives from the Central Committees made it abundantly clear that the Education in the northwest relocation of the six former-opposition commanders to the opposition-held north was a Teachers strike in western red line. The new agreement was reached by the Aleppo government avoiding both relocation or turning in wanted individuals as clauses.6 In return, A teachers’ strike was strengthened on 6 Central Committees lightly adhered to the February when five more schools from Atareb remaining demands, by the removal of wanted subdistrict joined eight others in demanding the individuals through tribal sponsorship from payment of salaries. The teachers have been Western Dar‘a (instead of turning them in), working voluntarily since the cutting off of handing over a very small amount of medium external (humanitarian and aid organization) weapons, re-opening government institutions, financial support to the Idleb Education and letting government search parties onto Directorate, in September 2019. The larger lands south of the city instead of entering the city strike was preceded in early February by isolated itself. teachers and students protests in different areas of the western Aleppo countryside and Idleb Noting the compromise made by both sides, it is city; a lack of response then pushed the teachers unlikely that this agreement will change the at Atareb Educational Complex to escalate and status quo significantly. The details of the tribal announce their strike. sponsorship program for wanted individuals

6 Initial demands made by the Syrian government on 25 January include: Six former-opposition commanders have to relocate to the north - all administrative buildings in Tafas be moved under government supervision, - medium and heavy weapons be handed over - government military units be allowed to conduct searches in the city.

MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS WEEKLY REPORT, 5 – 11 February 2021  6 According to Hilal Matar, speaking on behalf of response – the strikes ended without resolution. the teachers, the strike aims to convey the There is now a fear that the strike will expand requests of teachers to the NGOs and donors in this time to include the remaining areas under the area, and to the administration. The current the Idleb Education Directorate. The Idleb strike has no end-date, and will only cease when Education Directorate has reportedly tried to salaries are paid and other demands are reduce the damages resulting from a lack of accepted. funds; it has put volunteer replacements in teaching positions, reduced working hours, and Education in northwest Syria increased class size to 70 students per class (to reduce the number of teachers needed). A joint The education sector in northwest Syria has statement by Muhannad Hadi and Tad Chaidan, been largely dependent on external support, to senior representatives of the UN and UNICEF in pay 65% of the salaries of more than 7,000 Syria and the Middle East respectively described teachers in Idleb for seven months a year. This the education system in Syria as “overstretched, support ceased completely in September 2019, underfunded, fragmented and unable to provide coinciding with the start of the school year and safe, equitable and sustained services to millions the displacement of thousands of students. In of children”. There are currently over 2.4 million November 2019, the support resumed for 126 children out of school, and one-third of the schools in cooperation with the Free Education schools inside Syria are out of service. Directorate in Aleppo of the Syrian Interim Additionally, only one-third of the original Government (SIG). education requirements were received On 28 October 2019, the Response throughout 2020. Coordination Group stated that the number of teachers who stopped earning salaries through New Turkish colleges open in local or international organizations reached northern Aleppo 10,852, affecting 1,255 schools across Idleb, Aleppo and , with more than half a million In a related context, in a move not previously witnessed in opposition-controlled areas of students distributed over those directorates. The closure of schools and reduction in full time northwest Syria in terms of type of institution, education is expected to lead to increases in the the office of the Turkish presidency issued a prevalence of child labor and permanent student decision, on 6 February, to open a medical dropouts, affecting a generation of young people college and an Institute of Health Sciences in the in the region. city of Ar-Ra'ee (Ar-Ra'ee subdistrict) in the northern Aleppo countryside. The new faculties This is not the first teachers’ strike in the will be branches of the Turkish University of northwest of Syria. Previous strikes were Health Sciences in Istanbul. The college will organized in November 2019 and February likely open its doors early in the next academic 2020, with the same demands and without year 2021—2022, and it is not yet clear whether

MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS WEEKLY REPORT, 5 – 11 February 2021  7 the teaching in the new college will be in Turkish shot at by unknown assailants in Sur (Sur or . subdistrict) while accompanying Sheikh Hussein Al-Jameel of the Al-Bkayyir tribe in Al-Azba ’s investment in education in the ( subdistrict). Of note, Al-Mufdi has the northwest has been ongoing since taking control reputation of playing the mediator, resolving of border territory during operations Peace disputes between the Syrian Democratic Forces Spring, Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch, with (SDF) and the Self-Administration on one side, varying results: At the SIG-affiliated Free Aleppo and the local population on the other, in the University the first group of doctors graduated northern and eastern countryside of Deir-ez- in November 2020, however the degrees given Zor. are not internationally recognized. Branches of Turkish universities in northern Syria, the On the same day, in Basira (Basira subdistrict), Harran University and University of Gaziantep, Saleh Al-Ibrahim, who reportedly works with the hold limited courses only, in economic and SDF’s Intelligence Department, also survived an administrative sciences, education and Islamic assassination attempt via shooting by unknown studies. Finally, the Turkish Religion attackers. The SDF conducted a search and Endowment, in cooperation with Gaziantep arrest operation with the aim of capturing the University, has announced that it will be opening suspects. No one was arrested. the Intermediate Institute for Sharia Sciences in the areas gained during Euphrates Shield Both assassinations come as a series of attacks (Jarablus, Al-Bab, Akhtrein, ) and the Olive against Arabs who are affiliated with the Self- Branch (Afrin) and Peace Spring (Tal Abyad - Ras Administration in Deir-ez-Zor. al-Ain). Crackdown on local activists Deir-ez-Zor security On 5 February, the SDF arrested Ali Saleh Al- Wikaa, a well-known activist in the town of Assassinations continue in (Hajin subdistrict) after his participation in an eastern Deir-ez-Zor International Coalition inspection visit to the Hajin Hospital. At the time of writing, Al-Wikaa’s The latest series of attempted assassinations in whereabouts remain unknown, and the SDF has Self-Administration-held areas of Deir-ez-Zor not commented on the arrest. On 7 February, the continued throughout the reporting period. On 6 SDF raided the house of Ayman Al-Alaw, also a February, a second assassination attempt well-known activist in the town of Gharanij against Sheikh Aanad Hussein Al-Mufdi of the (Hajin subdistrict). Al-Alaw was not at the Bu-Freo tribe, took place with an IED planted in property and hence was not arrested. He his car outside his home in the village of Abul reportedly remains hiding at an undisclosed Nitel (Sur subdistrict). Al-Mufdi survived the location. assassination attempt unharmed. The first attempt took place on 14 January, when he was

MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS WEEKLY REPORT, 5 – 11 February 2021  8 Local sources reported that both activists work Tasks is a security company owned by the Al- in the media sector and have previously played a Qatirji Company, and receives logistical support role in organizing or participating in from Russia. demonstrations in eastern Deir-ez-Zor against the Self-Administration, most recently including Why Al-Taim? protests against smuggling to Syrian Al-Taim station is considered an important vital government-held areas, and poor security site, in addition to its role of collecting and conditions in the area. It is anticipated that local pumping oil to Syrian government refineries, it pro-Self-Administration tribal figures are to also provides Deir-ez-Zor with electricity which mediate the activist's release with the SDF. is generated through three gas generating sets. It ISIS attack Al-Taim station is responsible for supplying the governorate of Deir-ez-Zor with medium and low voltage, by southeast of Deir-ez-Zor receiving and diverting the high voltage current coming from the Jandar station in . Iranian On 4 February, fighters from the ISIS extremist group attacked sites held by the Syrian companies worked to rehabilitate the station at government and Russian forces in Al-Taim the end of 2018, and completed the station southeast of Deir-ez-Zor. The attackers rehabilitation of the first set, while Deir-ez-Zor fired mortar and anti-armor shells before Electricity Company finished supplying the infiltrating the site, where they fought with the second set in mid-2020. At the current time station guards. During the clashes, three ISIS Deir-ez-Zor Electricity Company is working on fighters detonated their explosive belts, while linking the generating sets of the Al-Taim station the rest of them withdrew towards the Syrian with the generation station in Al-Tala' camp, Badia desert, before the arrival of the Syrian west of Deir-ez-Zor, to organize supplying the government military reinforcements. According local population with electricity, (the generation to local media reports, the attack resulted in the station in Al-Tala' camp is a medium power killing of seven government soldiers and four station that the Syrian government forces built members of the Tasks Company for Security, during the siege of Deir-ez-Zor in 2015). which is responsible for securing the station.

MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS WEEKLY REPORT, 5 – 11 February 2021  9

CONTACT Nicholas Bodanac Humanitarian Access Team [email protected]

The Humanitarian Access Team (HAT) was established in in March 2015 in response to the collective challenges facing the remote humanitarian response in Syria. Successful humanitarian and development interventions require a nuanced and objective understanding of the human ecosystems in which these interventions occur. To this end, the HAT’s most important function is to collect, triangulate, synthesize, analyze and operationalize disparate data and information. Since 2015, HAT analysis has provided a forward-looking template for international interventions in Syria, and facilitated an increasingly nimble, adaptive, integrated, and ultimately impactful international response to the Syrian conflict.