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STUDIES IN THE NATIONAL INCOME AND EXPENDITURE OF THE UNITED KINGDOM

The scope of the series is the measurement and analysis of the size, trend and interrelationships of the components of the British national income, output, expenditure, saving and asset formation. The investigations published in these Studies are confined to those undei taken at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research or at the Cambridge University Department of Applied Economics by members of their respective staffs and others working in direct collaboration with them. The production of a jointly sponsored series under a single editorship is being carried out in order that the intellectual unity underlying the many segments of research should be emphasized and made plain. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research and the Department of Applied Economics assume no responsibility for the views expressed in these Studies. The titles in this series are:

I The Measurement of Consumers' Expenditure and Behaviour in the United Kingdom, iQ S o - ig g S , vol. i, b y richard stone, assisted b y d . a . row e and by w. j. g o r le tt, renee HURSTFIELD, MURIEL POTTER

2 The Measurement of Consumers' Expenditure and Behaviour in the United Kingdom, igzo-iggS, vol. ii, b y richard stone and D. A. ROWE

3 Consumers' Expenditure in the United Kingdom, igoo-1gig, by A. R. PREST, assisted b y a . a . adams

4 Domestic Capital Formation in the United Kingdom, ig20-igg8, by c. H. FEiNSTEiN, using material provided b y k . m ayw ald

5 Wages and Salaries in the United Kingdom, ig2o-igj8, by AGATHA L. CHAPMAN, assisted b y ROSE KNIGHT 6 National Income, Expenditure and Output of the United Kingdom, i8gg-ig6g, by c. h. feinstein

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Published by the Syndics of the Cambridge University Press Bentley House, 200 Euston Road, London n w i 2Db American Branch; 32 East 57th Street, New York, n .y . 10022

Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge

Library of Congress Catalogue Card Number; 71-163055

ISBN; o 521 07230 I

Printed in Great Britain at the University Printing House, Cambridge (Brooke Crutchley, University Printer) iir/

I Aims Surm nati coni 1.2 Secto Selec Cons;

APPENDI3 i.i Reco estii a te

persokai 2.0 The] 2.1 Incoi 2.2 Incoi Fan

2.3 Rent

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c V B N f t ■ f CONTENTS

Symbols and Conventions VI 4.4 Current expenditure on goods and services at current and constant List of Text Tables Vll prices, 1870-1965 List of Figures via 4-5 Subsidies, grants and debt interest, Preface IX 1900-65 4.6 Transactions in financial assets, 1920-38

INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY TABLES APPENDIX i.o Aims, sources and methods I 4.1 Lists of funds and accounts used in 1.1 Summary tables of domestic and the analysis of Central Government national product at current and income and expenditure, 1914-38 constant prices, 1855-1965 3 1.2 Sector accounts, 1920-65 7 5 LOCAL AUTHORITIES 1-3 Selected ratios, 1855-1965 7 5-0 The local authority sector 1.4 Consistency and reliability 8 5-1 Income from rates and taxes on expenditure, 1870-1965 appendix 5-2 Gross trading surplus and rent, 1.1 Reconciliation with previous interest and dividends, 1900-65 estimates of net national product 5-3 Grants from the Central Government, at current prices, 1870-1913 23 1900-65 PERSONAL INCOME AND EXPENDITURE 5-4 Current expenditure on goods and 2.0 The personal sector 30 services at current and constant 2.1 Income from employment, 1855-1965 31 prices, 1870-1965 2.2 Income from self-employment: 5-5 Subsidies, grants and debt interest, Farmers, 1855-1965; Non-farm, 1900-65 1889-1965 38 5-8 Capital expenditure and transactions 2-3 Rent, interest and dividends, in financial assets, 1920-38 1920-38 and 1946-65 43 APPENDIX 2.4 Consumers’ expenditure at current Aggregate estimates of the income and and constant prices, 1870-1965 5-1 44 expenditure of local authorities in Taxes on income, 1920-38 and 1946-65 2-5 52 England and Wales, 1919/20 to 3 COMPANIES AND PUBLIC CORPORATIONS 1928/9 3-0 The corporate sector 54 5-2 Special funds Gross trading profits of companies, 3-1 6 INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS 1889-1965 54 6.0 Transactions with the rest of the world 3-2 Gross trading surpluses of public 6.1 Exports and imports of goods at corporations, 1926-65 55 current and constant prices, 1870- 3-3 Corporate income appropriation account, 1920-38 and 1946-65 1965 57 6.2 Exports and imports of services at 4 CENTRAL GOVERNMENT current and constant prices, 1870- 4.0 The Central Government sector 66 1965 4.1 Income from taxes and national 8.3 Property income received from, and insurance contributions, 1900-65 71 paid to, non-residents at current and 4.2 Gross trading surplus and rent, interest constant prices, 1855-1965 and dividends, 1900-65 74 6.4 Grants and transfers received from, and 4-3 Transfers from abroad, 1900-65 76 paid to, non-residents, 1870-1965 VI CONTENTS

GROSS TRADING PROFITS AND Depreciation and net domestic fixed NON-FARM INCOME FROM SELF-EMPLOYMENT capital formation at current and 7.0 Profits and income from self-employment 128 constant prices, 1855-1965 200 Gross trading profits of companies and Stocks, stockbuilding at current and public enterprises, plus non-farm constant prices, and stock apprecia­ income from self-employment, 1920-38 tion, 1870-1965 202 Gross trading profits of companies and Overseas assets, net of liabilities, Comparis^ 1.1 local authority trading enterprises, 1856-1965 e .< P ^ di plus non-farm income from self- .gOO-lS 10 REAL PRODUCT employment, 1855-1920 C o m p ^ 10.0 Gross domestic product at constant 1.2 outpii; 1 APPENDIX factor cost, 1855-1965 C om pm ^ Id Inland Revenue concepts and APPENDIX gross terminology 10.1 Gross domestic product at constant factor Reconcili^ M product Incomes assessed to income tax, cost. Great Britain, 1855-1920 212 1855-1914 Comparis* 11 1-5 Intermediate incomes, 1855-1914 POPULATION AND LABOUR FORCE rate of 11.0 Population, 1855-1965 constau RENT 11.1 Working population, employment and , 6 Dates of 8.0 Rental income, 1855-1965 unemployment, 1855-1965 G.D.P. referenc Tables 1-65 CAPITAL FORMATION Comparis( 1-7 Gross domestic fixed capital formation List of tables penditu at current and constant prices, constan: List of works cited 1855-1965 1.8 Intcr-cycli Gross and net capital stock at current Subject index gins o f « Summary and constant prices, 1855-1965 Author index 1-9 1855-if u o Comparis< nadonal m prese M I Reconcilia mates ol SYMBOLS AND CONVENTIONS M2 Recondlia mates ol

2.1 Civil empl Dates: / is used for financial or crop years, e.g. 1938/9 Rounding: Estimates have generally been rounded in 2.2 Pay and a for the financial year ended 31 March 1939. such a way that components add to totals. bers em -is used for two or more calendar years, e.g. References: Works cited are given in full the first time 2-3 Salaries, u 1938-9 for the two calendar years 1938 and 1939. they are mentioned. Subsequently they are referred 24 Farmers’ i Reliability: Estimates are generally given to the nearest to only by author and a number in square brackets, 2-5 Farmers’ i and the full reference is given for each work in the T m. and index numbers are given with one decimal 2.6 Comparisc List of Works Cited, pp. 229-35. place - this is designed to facilitate rearrangement and tural b ( adjustment of the series, but it is not suggested that Symbols: .. = not available. 24 Rent, d id the estimates are accurate to the last digit given. — = nil. tbepers 2.8 8omparisc consmuj

^■ (in-tradir ^t>tporai

4-1 ^fflpariso Central I in 1938 4-2 M.l Central Q, i-y 15/’! ^tionai years, ic 4-3 CentralG^ cialyear

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LIST OF TEXT TABLES 1

1.1 Comparison of index numbers of consumers’ 4.4 Capital Government current grants to persons, expenditure and Gross Domestic Product, selected years 1920-38. 82 1900-1913, at 1900 and at 1938 prices 5 4-5 Calculation of debt interest paid, selected 1.2 Comparison of index numbers of manufacturing years, 1920-38 output with different base years 6 Comparison with the Blue Book estimates of 5 * Headings of income and expenditure in sum­ gi'oss national product in 1938 8 mary tables of Local Government Financial 212 Reconciliation of estimates of gross domestic Statistics for England and Wales, 1938/9 product in 1920 10 5-2 Comparison with the Blue Book estimates of local authority income and expenditure in 1-5 Comparison with Phyllis Deane’s estimates of rate of growth of gross national product at 1938 constant factor cost, 1856-1913 11 5-3 Method of aggregating figures for various classes Dates of turning points in the estimates of of authority in England and Wales, used for G.D.P. at current prices and in the N.B.E.R. the years 1919/20 to 1928/9 106 reference cycle 16 Comparison of rates of growth of output, ex­ 6.1 Comparison with the Board of Trade estimates penditure and income estimates of G.D.P. at of the balance on current account, 1924-38 constant factor cost, 1857-1948 19 6.2 Comparison with the Blue Book estimates of Inter-cyclical growth rates and possible mar­ international transactions in 1938 114 gins of error, 1857-1938 20 8-3 Comparison of the accumulated deficit on Summary of reliability grades for main series, current account with estimated net disinvest­ 1855-1965 21 ment, 1914-19 114 I . I o Comparison of residual error in estimates of net 6.4 Comparison with the Board of Trade esti­ national product by Jefferys and Walters and mates of the shipping credit and debit in in present estimates, 1870-1913 23 1936 119 1.11 Reconciliation with Jefferys and Walters’ esti­ 6-5 Calculation of the shipping credit and debit mates of net non-wage income, 1870-1913 24 in 1913 121 1.12 Reconciliation with Jefferys and Walters’ esti­ 6.6 Government overseas current expenditure and mates of net national expenditure, 1870-1913 28 receipts, 1920-38 and comparison with Board of Trade estimates j I . Civil employment, earnings and wages, 1914-20 35 Pay and allowances of H.M. Forces, and num­ 71 Derivation of gross trading profits of companies, bers employed, 1914-19 35 public corporations and local authority Salaries, selected years, 1860-1914 trading enterprises, and non-farm income time 37 Farmers’ income in 1938 39 from self-employment, selected years, erred Farmers’ income in 1908 41 1920-38 131 ckets, Comparison with Bowley’s estimate of agricul­ 7.2 Number of unassessed non-farm self-employed n the tural income in 1911 42 persons Rent, dividends and net interest received by 7-3 Calculation of assessed gross trading profits of the personal sector in 1938 44 non-corporate enterprises in 1938 Comparison with the Blue Book estimates of 7.4 Comparison with Hart’s estimates of gross A consumers’ expenditure in 1938 51 trading profits and non-farm income from self-employment, 1920-38 Non-trading income received and paid by the 7-5 Alternative estimate of gross trading profits in corporate sector in 1938 85 retail distribution in 1938 7.6 Comparison with Census of Production data for Comparison with the Blue Book estimates of gross profits in building and contracting, 1924, Central Government income and expenditure 1930 and 1935 H9 in 1938 70 7-7 Comparison with Census of Production data for Central Government income from taxes and gross profits in manufacturing industry, 1924, national insurance contributions, selected 1930 and 1935 150 years, 1900-38 73 7.8 Comparison with Electricity Commission data Central Government subsidies, selected finan­ for gross profits of electricity undertakings, cial years, 1920/1 to 1938/9 81 selected years, 1920-38 150

#

tc L I S T O F TEXT TABLES

Comparison with Board of Trade data for gross Length of life assumed for calculation of de­ profits of gas undertakings, selected years, preciation, 1856-1965 1920-38 201 9-7 Comparison with the Blue Book estimates of 7.10 Comparison with the Blue Book estimates of capital formation and depreciation in 1938 202 gross trading profits in 1938 9.8 Comparison with alternative estimates of the 7.11 Derivation of gross trading profits plus non-farm stock of overseas assets net of liabilities, income from scif-cmploymemt, selected selected years, 1854-1966 * This years, 1860-1913 153 7.12 Reconciliation of two estimates of gross trading 10.1 Base years used for the indices of real output, profits and non-farm income from self- *855-1965 employment in 1920 10.2 Weights used in estimating gross domestic pro­ Specimen calculation of taxable income by 7-13 duct at constant factor cost from output data 208 schedule in period 1855/6 to 1890/1. Data 10.3 Gross and net agricultural output, Great Britain for 1874/5 and Ireland, averages of years, 1867-1913 213 7.14 Specimen calculation for Schedule D incomes 10.4 Index numbers of real output and real output 00-^^150 in period 1863/4 to 1875/6. per head at constant factor cost. United Data for 1863/4 Kingdom, Great Britain and Ireland, averages 7-15 Specimen calculation for incomes £ioo-£i50 of years, 1857 to 1913 in period 1855/6 to 1862/3. Data for 1857/8 166 2*4 Calendar year estimates of taxable income 11.1 Reconciliation of present estimates of working under each schedule, 1855-1914 population in 1931 with Chapman’s estimates 7-17 Classification of non-wage occupations in of employment and Census of Population esti­ 1911 mates of the occupied population 218 Number and income of salary-earners in 1911 11.2 Deduction from numbers employed in 1931 Intermediate incomes by type of income, i860, for part-time and casual work, short-time 1880, and 1911 *74 working, disputes etc. 218 **•3 Comparison of Census of Population and unem­ 8.1 Rent, by type of property, selected years, 1920- ployment insurance statistics of unemploy­ 38 177 ment in Great Britain, 26-27 April 1931 8.2 Comparison with the Blue Book estimate of Unemployment in 1931 rent in 1938 180 Comparison with the census-based estimate of total working population in 1921 222 Comparison of estimates of domestic fixed 11.6 Comparison with ‘ total manpower ’ estimate of capital formation in 1907 persons in employment in 1938 222 Composition of gross domestic fixed capital II.7 Comparison with Frankel’s estimate of total formation in 1907 186 occupied population in 1938 223 Comparison with Deane’s estimates of total 11.8 Census-based estimates of the total working gross domestic fixed capital formation at population, 1851 - 1911 224 1900 prices, 1856-1913 193 11.9 Comparison of original and adjusted trade union 9.4 Comparison with Deane’s estimate of gross percentage unemployed 225 domestic fixed capital formation, at 1900 11.10 Status classification of the working population, prices, by industry, 1882-1913 194 selected years, 1911-61 227 Comparison with an alternative estimate of 11.11 Comparison of census-based and Ministry of the gross stock of reproducible fixed capital in Labour estimates of total employees in Great 1938 199 Britain, 1951 and 1961 227

• ‘

■ ni v '. • , I , . LIST OF FIGURES

4 ^ 9 # i^J V"■

i4 ^- 1 ^ ^ « k ) 1.1 Comparison of income and expenditure esti­ Comparison with Deane’s estimates of total gross >1y » j • » . . mates of gross domestic product at current domestic fixed capital formation at 1900 factor cost, 1865-1913 prices, 1856-1913 191 Output, inputs and productivity, 1855-1965 9-2 Comparison with Deane’s estimates of gross •NK* * y Comparison with Jefferys and Walters’ estimates domestic fixed capital formation at 1900 prices i'j'' of non-wage income, 1870-1913 26 - selected components, 1856-1913 192 fU iv. 1-^: pi Pi-

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c t B N 4 r 2oi 202 PREFACE

^^5 This book is the final product of a collective endeavour out the willing cooperation of many people. I cannot mention them all by name, but I should like particu­ 20) which has extended over some three decades. It em­ bodies the contributions of many other economists and larly to express my indebtedness to the staff of the 2o8 statisticians; in particular, Professor Stone, the late Board of Inland Revenue and the Central Statistical Deryck Rowe, Professor Prest, Professor Utting, Miss Office who provided me with unpublished material and 213 Agatha Chapman and Dr Maywald who, with their helpful comments; to the Department of Applied assistants, produced the estimates given in the earlier Economics for much material and moral support volumes of this series; the Central Statistical Office who during the long years this book was on the ‘forthcom­ 214 have provided the excellent national accounts statistics ing’ list; and to Professor Reddaway for his constant for the post-war period and have done so much to readiness to advise and assist and for his valuable clarify the concepts and definitions on which the esti­ suggestions for the improvement of an earlier draft. mates are based; Professor Imlah, Professor W. Arthur I was assisted in the estimation of several of the series Lewis, James Jefferys and others who have contributed by John Odling-Smee, and Mike Fuller and Thelma 218 to the quantitative study of the United Kingdom; and Liesner also participated in the construction of some die pioneers, notably Professor Bowley, Lord Stamp of the estimates. The vast labour of computation and and Colin Clark, who laid such enduring foundations checking was swiftly and accurately performed by 218 for studies of the pre-war national income. My detailed Marion Clarke and her assistants, and a lengthy text, use of the estimate of these and other authors is indicated with many tedious tables, was superbly typed by 219 in the text, but I should like here to acknowledge the Christine Hudson. The extra burden which the writing 221 very considerable extent to which tliis study has de­ of this book has given my wife is not recognised as a pended on their work. They are not, of course, re­ component of the national income in the pages which 222 sponsible for the way in which their estimates have follow but is none the less appreciated. been adapted or adjusted, or for any errors which may 222 be found in the present estimates. CAMBRIDGE C. H. FEINSTEIN 223 A book of this character would not be possible with­ December igyi

224

225

227

227

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192 Incot^ 1 originally";;' dn.pl>’ bnng ,8 prepared by but over the y< its present dim^ rives. First, to accounts for th­ in a form 'vhicl concept and d published by tl Second, to exti before igi4 to provide long' all the main it' the inter-war y< concise stateme adopted; and - a detailed accc estimation used. The presenta mated long-run For some series or igoo, a date for all the items are given o the character criterion wa for which some “ uld he made ft item. Some o f t ‘dtntify this perf century are the r the cpmprehensi tics B “f ®etal an, I of “gricultura] c "^es and eami, I I retun ^ “ «hrre k m '^‘iction I *^enit I1 “ tade fo r , i