Africa's Progress to Cleaner Fuels and Vehicles

Africa’s Progress to Cleaner Fuels and Vehicles

Jane Akumu 6 June 2019 Main Sources of PM in Nairobi

Source: S. M. Gaita et al.: Source apportionment and seasonal variation of PM2.5 in Nairobi → An estimated 1 in 8 people die from air pollution; → Small particulates (PM10 or PM2.5) estimated to cause over 4.2 million premature deaths each year worldwide; Why cleaner → In 2012, diesel PM was officially fuels and classified as carcinogenic (WHO); → The smaller part of PM is black carbon vehicles (BC), now believed the second most important climate pollutant; → Diesel vehicles responsible for significant PM pollution in cities Ambient PM2.5 attributed to 425,000 deaths in 2016 in Africa Systems Approach to Clean Fuels and Vehicles

• Systems approach links fuel quality to vehicles emission standards for max emission reduction benefits

• Countries need to develop long term roadmaps to reduce vehicle emissions, that include Inspection & Maintenance / testing programs Lower sulphur fuels reduce vehicle emissions

Sulphur levels proportional to PM and SO2 emissions in all cars - new and old cars Vehicle fleet growth and oil demand in Africa

Passenger car stock 2012 and 2040 Transport oil demand 2012 and 2040

Source: African Energy Outlook 2014 (IEA 2014)

The African continent will see almost a tripling of passenger cars and a doubling of oil demand for transport between now and 2040

Progress towards Low Sulphur Diesel

2005

2019

9 Progress in Lowering Sulphur in Diesel in Africa

2019 SADC Low Sulphur Diesel Roadmap

7-8 July 2015 :13 countries to develop a low sulphur strategy

Regional workshop in Botswana in August 2016

November 2016: Sub-regional workshop for Mozambique and neighboring countries

Africa’s Aging Vehicle Fleet

Nairobi Used Vehicles

• 45 million Vehicles in Africa (2015) ( OICA) Share of • 27 vehicles per 1000 people in Sub Saharan Used Vehicle Africa Imports by Region (2017) • 2040, there will be nearly 137 million more light duty vehicles in Africa than in 2015, a growth of nearly 400% (World Bank,2018)

• 85-100% in most countries are used vehicles (LDVs & HDVs) • 90%+ Lesotho, Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe

• Africa has the highest per capita road traffic fatality rates – projected to increase by 112% by 2030 (WHO) • Road accidents account for up to 5% of GDP for several SADC countries

Japanese Export Vehicle Inspection Center (JEVIC) • 75% increase in transport emissions in Sub- Eurostat Saharan Africa (2000 -2016) Share of Used LDV Imports by SADC Country from Japan and the 70000 EU (2017) 62667 60000

50000 42373 40000

30000 26297

20000 18181 13994 13872 8649 10000 8193 7066 4905 4552 4187 3746 3617 3343 18 0

Japanese Export Vehicle Inspection Center (JEVIC) Import of Used HDV's from Japan (2017)

10000 9179 9000 8000 6702 7000 6000 5000 4000 2040 3000 1829 1718 2000 1140 1107 690 386 478 589 1000 57 30 360 102 162 2 237 83 58 62 0

Truck Bus

Japanese Export Vehicle Inspection Center (JEVIC) Eurostat Regulatory Environment Towards Importing Quality Used LDVs

Strong: 3 countries have a Euro 5 or above emission standard and/ or ban used vehicles over 3 years and/or have strong tax, fee bate schemes (Seychelles, Mauritius) Good: 5 countries have a Euro 4 emission standard and/or ban used vehicles over 5 years and/or have a good taxation scheme in place Weak: 17 countries have a Euro 3 or below emission standard and/ or ban used vehicles over 8 years old and/or have a weak taxation scheme in place (Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Tanzania) Very Weak: 25 countries allow vehicles over 9 and have no emission regulations in place as well as having ineffective/ or no taxation schemes (Angola, DRC, Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia) Banned: 5 countries impose a total ban on used vehicles (South Africa) Range of Vehicle Regulations in the SADC

Angola- incremental tax on engine capacity with higher taxes on vehicles over 2500cc Botswana –maximum 100,000 kms Eswatini- 15 year age limit DRC – 10 year age limit Snapshot of average age of vehicle imports Malawi- vehicles with low engine capacity and less than 8 Country LDV age years pay relatively lower taxes than older vehicles with a Burundi 8 years (2017) higher engine capacity. For instance, 1000cc -1499cc vehicle Kenya 6.5 years (2016) excise is zero while for vehicles of 1500cc- 1999 cc of less Liberia 10 years (2017) than 8 years 15% excise is paid Madagascar 15 years (2017) Mauritius – 3 year age restriction; C02 based progressive Mauritius 1 year (2017) taxation Sierra Leone 15 years (2017) Mozambique – stratified tax on engine size (bigger engines attracting higher taxes); Extra tax on vehicles over 7 years Uganda 15.6 years (2017) Namibia- 8 year age limit Zambia 13 years (2014) Seychelles – 3 year age limit; incentives for hybrid (12.5 – Zimbabwe 13.3 years (2016) 100% ) and electric vehicles (tax exempt!) South Africa- bans all used vehicle imports Tanzania – Incremental tax for vehicles over 8 years Zimbabwe- Incremental tax for vehicles over 5 tears Banned Restricted by Age Emission Standards Incremental tax or additional excise duty No Import No Data on age LDV HDV Restrictions

Algeria Chad < 3 yrs Morocco Euro4 Kenya >3 yrs Burkina Faso Comoros Egypt Mauritius <3 yrs Algeria Euro 3 Cape V. >4 yrs Cameroon South Sudan Seychelles <3 yrs Morocco Gabon < 4 yrs Botswana Euro 3 Sierra L >4 yrs CAR Sao Tome & <7yrs South Africa Libya <5 yrs Nigeria Euro 3 Ghana >5 yrs Djibouti Principe <9 yrs Sudan Tunisia <5 yrs Rwanda Euro 3 Tunisia >5 yrs EQ. Guinea Cote d’Ivoire <5 yrs <10yrs Egypt Euro 2 Uganda >5 yrs Guinea- Bissau Congo <7 yrs South A. Euro 2 Zimbabwe >5 yrs Lesotho Guinea <8 yrs <12yrs Kenya <8 yrs Mozambique >7yrs Madagascar Mauritania <8 yrs Tanzania >8 yrs Malawi Namibia <8 yrs Gambia >10 yrs Mali Reunion <8 yrs Liberia >10 yrs Niger Senegal <8 yrs Mali >10 yrs Somalia Benin <10yrs <7yrs Burundi <10yrs Rwanda >10 yrs Togo DRC <10yrs Zambia Eritrea <10yrs Liberia <12yrs Ethiopia <15yrs Nigeria <15yrs Niger <15yrs Swaziland <15yrs Uganda <15yrs Source: Derived from IFQC Africa Fuel Outlook . Few countries have adopted low sulphur fuels – 12 of 54 countries . Regional/sub-regional approach: . EAC in 2015 adopted harmonized low sulphur standards, currently being revised and discussions on vehicle emission standards commenced . ECOWAS planning Ministers meeting in July 2019 on low sulphur fuels and vehicle emission standards harmonization . SADC – Ministerial decision on low sulphur fuels by 2022 - Any draft harmonized standards? . Main challenge remains . Refineries upgrading . Enforcement of vehicle standards, including I&M Next Steps to Low Emission Transport

Low sulphur fuels

Vehicle standards (Euro 4/IV)

Clean buses (Euro IV)

Fuel economy vehicles

Electric Mobility

NMT policies and infrastructure Thank you

Jane Akumu, Economy Division, Air Quality and Mobility Unit [email protected]