5. Recognising Cascades in India and Kashmir
5 Recognising cascades in India and Kashmir Diverse cascades This chapter suggests that neither a ‘healing touch’ (Ahmed 2010) nor a determined Indian effort to broker a political solution, either in Kashmir or with Pakistan, has ever been accomplished by Indian policy, including during the thaw of 2002–07. Generations of lives have been lost to military overreaction and political underreaction. It shows how the communal violence of the Partition of India cascaded into violence inside Kashmir, into interstate war and to wave upon wave of insurgency across 68 years. The first interstate war cascaded to four more wars in the next half-century. This quickly cascaded to northern Pakistan becoming a training centre for violent jihad in Kashmir, then in Afghanistan and then in Indian Punjab (where Sikhs were dragged into communal conflict, then civil war). This then cascaded to attacks on Indian parliaments and cities and, globally, to diffusion of violent jihad to Indonesia, Chechnya, Britain and beyond. The most deadly cascade in this case is from interstate war to internal insurgency, particularly to Indian military violence against Kashmiri civilians, which cost several times the number of lives of all the interstate wars across the Kashmir border. The most worrying cascade is to nuclear brinksmanship in the gaming of the conflict by the Pakistani military, in particular, and to a nuclear terrorism risk in Pakistan. Our research in 177 CASCAdeS of VioLenCe Kashmir reveals a diversity of less visible cascades down to the creation of organised criminal gangs, assassination of alleged informers, a personal revenge culture, a gun culture, a rape culture, a culture of torture1 and an anomic culture in which domestic violence, crime and suicide have escalated.
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