The Economic Impact of the Proposed Snowdonia
Integrated Development Scheme
A Report Compiled by Newidiem with the help of:
Brian Morgan
Gareth Wyn Jones
Peter Aubrey
The Economic Impact of the Proposed Snowdonia Integrated Development Scheme
Chapter 1
Introduction
1.1 Terms of reference
This study arose from the need to evaluate the economic impact of the proposed Snowdonia Integrated Development scheme. A consortium of the two Local Authorities, Cyngor Gwynedd and Cyngor Conwy, the Snowdonia National Park Authority, WDA, CCW and other Agencies, wished to quantify the job generation opportunities and related spin-offs from the proposed scheme.
The overall objectives of the research were:
i. to identify the economic opportunities that the implementation of the scheme will bring and, based on the scheme,
ii. to identify innovative new ways to create jobs within the communities of northern Snowdonia.
To achieve these objectives the consultants were asked to carry out the following five tasks.
1. Specify and use a methodology for carrying out an Economic Impact Analysis of the scheme.
2. Assess and analyse existing information and data relating to the socio- economic wellbeing of communities in northern Snowdonia, plus any other data collected by the consultants, with specific reference to Bethesda, Betws-y-Coed, Llanberis, Caernarfon and Capel Curig.
3. Estimate the number of direct and indirect jobs that this scheme might create.
2 4. Develop economic indicators for the scheme
5. Specify monitoring mechanisms for the economic indicators
1.2 Background
The Northern Snowdonia Study [NSS] carried out by a group of consultants led by the Environmental Planning Research Unit at Cardiff University, forms the basis of the work. The fundamental concept of seeking to stimulate economic growth in the communities around the northern core of Snowdonia by a judicious mixture of parking control in the mountains, an excellent public transport system and the provision of inter-modal gateways is fully accepted. The data presented in that report on visitor numbers etc have been used in the calculations but rechecked against the original source. The data in the report on parking sites and numbers have been used without further check.
1.3 Reappraisal
The economic and social impact of the proposed scheme will depend significantly on the exact location of each specific inter-modal gateway, especially in relation to existing local shops and facilities, and the level of investment in new facilities. From visits to the proposed gateways and communities, it became apparent to the consultancy team that the effectiveness, acceptability and, consequently, the economic impact of the scheme would ultimately depend on the quality and variety of the facilities, services and experiences offered to the visitor and tourist at each gateway and at critical internal locations within the core area. It was considered that to conceive of the proposed scheme as a pure “park and ride exercise” was to underestimate both the difficulties and the potential benefits of the scheme. The team were concerned that the public acceptability of the scheme would be impaired if detailed plans were not developed to match any proposals for changes to parking and bus time-tabling more precisely to the annual demand cycle. Specifically, any changes in charging rates and access would need to recognise the seasonal variability in transport, parking and visitor requirements.
Consequently in order to produce a robust set of economic forecasts, the consultants felt it necessary to revisit some key suggestions in the primary study [NSS] and make alternative proposals to meet the above points, although this did not form part of the initial brief.
1.4 Economic Approach
Papers outlining the amended proposals were exchanged with the commissioning group and we are grateful to them for their constructive comments and assistance. At the formal meeting of the consultants and the full commissioning group [10 October 1999], the amended proposals were presented and, as they were well received, are used as the basis of the economic analyses that follow in Chapter 3.
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The main research issues upon which the project has concentrated have concerned the likely income flows from both capital and revenue expenditure over the first five years of the scheme. These expenditure flows have then been combined with the Welsh Input-Output tables to analyse the total economic impacts in terms of jobs and incomes.
The methodology for this analysis is provided in detail in Annex 2 and the consequences for jobs and incomes is set out in detail in Chapter 4 where the economic impacts across different sectors are analysed.
The data analysed in the current Report provide a useful snapshot of the economy over the relevant period when the expenditure flows are in place. The Input Output tables are then used to illustrate the complex inter- relationships between different industry sectors within the area of the National Park and surrounding parts of Conwy and Gwynedd. The tables are particularly useful for looking at the impact effects of expenditure changes at the broad regional level (say North Wales).
The methodological approach set out in Annex 1, acknowledges that the leakages from the expenditure patterns at the local level (i.e. within the core of Northern Snowdonia) are too great to allow this methodology to provide a completely accurate picture of local multiplier effects within the Park itself. However, given that the approach taken in this study is to view the whole area as an economic, social and environmental continuum, this may not be important. The multiplier effects are based instead on a broader catchment area to include adjoining parts of Gwynedd and Conwy. Despite the difficulties with defining the appropriate area, some useful estimates have been compiled and the methodology has focused on utilising data from a number of sources (including property values, rentals and retail sales from local tourist establishments) to cross check the tabulations. Moreover, wherever, discrepancies have been observed in the estimated size of the multiplier effects, the approach has been conservative and the team has been careful to choose the lower estimate.
The investigation has been fortunate in being able to utilise the All Parks Visitor Survey for Snowdonia National Park and other recent surveys of visitors using local public transport. These reports have proved an invaluable source of information on visitor numbers and visitor expenditure patterns. In the absence of such detailed information on visitor characteristics and behaviour, the research project would have been much more limited in scope and the task of quantifying the economic impacts would have been much more difficult and much less accurate.
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Chapter 2
Background to the Capital and Revenue Costings
As noted in the Introduction the consultants identified a number of key principles and objectives which guided their approach. These are presented below.
2.1 Basic Principles:
• The project should be conceived and planned as a “sustainable rural development scheme” integrating improved visitor experience, services and facilities. • The overarching aim of the project is increased economic opportunities for the communities, both within the core area and in the inner and outer gateways and the improved management of the fundamental resource, namely that natural beauty of northern Snowdonia [Eryri]. • While traffic management and sustainable parking arrangements are critical components of the scheme, they are not sufficient in themselves; the proposal is not simply a traffic management or ‘park and ride’ scheme per se. • The inter-modal locations (gateways and internal transfer locations) must offer high quality, convenient facilities and services to the visitor/ tourist and to local users, and easy transfer between modes. • Transfer and waiting areas must be planned to afford maximum shelter from bad weather and be convenient and comfortable. Individuals and vehicles must be safe. They must be more than “just car parks and bus stops”. • Each gateway should have its own clear identifiable, if possible unique ‘character’, building on local natural and social history and existing facilities. • The provisions must allow for climatic variability, both seasonal and within a specific day with a range of weather conditions, and differing visitor interests and needs. • The gateways and other sites must be organised to maximise the economic benefits to the local communities and businesses. The sites and services must encourage visitors to stay in the area and use all the resources of Snowdonia and adjoining area. • They must be attractive in themselves while encouraging the use of the park and ride facilities. Full use must be made of new IT equipment including real time video/film opportunities to provide efficient services to visitors and a strong experience of the natural and social history and character of the area. • As part of the whole scheme a number of integrated packages with appeals to different segments of the tourist trade should be designed. • Marketing, product branding and quality are crucial throughout the whole scheme. • In all the infrastructure developments suggested in the Report there should
5 an emphasis on the use of local material (slate, stone and hard and soft woods) and of skilled local labour to complement the Faenol Initiative. Local civic/co-operative enterprises should be encouraged wherever possible. • Advance sign posting will be needed and will have to be integrated with more local sign posting. These must be clear, highly visible and produced to a high design standard.
2.2 Physical Area:
The study area contains the Snowdon massive, Glyderau, Tryfan, Y Garn, Y Carneddau, Moel Siabod and smaller peaks and many lakes within this area. It is enclosed by Waunfawr/Betws Garmon, Llanberis, Bethesda in the north [and can be potentially extended to include Dyffryn Nantlle/Pen y Groes further to the west], by Llanrwst and Betws y Coed in the east [again with potential extension to Llandudno Junction], by Porthmadog in the south and potentially Blaenau Ffestiniog in the east. The main communities within the core area are Capel Curig, Rhyd Ddu and Beddgelert. The consultancy brief required attention to be given to Bethesda, Betws y Coed, Llanberis, Caernarfon and Capel Curig, but because of the integrated nature of the proposals and importance attached by the consultants to the quality of visitor experience at each location, some specific suggestions are offered on a number of the community gateways and other important internal locations. The “inner core” is defined as that area enclosed by the communities of Llanberis, Bethesda, [Llanrwst], Betws y Coed and Porthmadog and extending in the north west to Waunfawr and Dyffryn Nantlle. Sites in these communities are, in tern, referred to as “inner gateways” or “potential inner gateways”. Beyond this area lies an outer core, less precisely defined geographically, which extends from Caernarfon to Bangor and Llandudno Junction ( referred to as “outer gateways”) and could also include Blaenau Ffestiniog. The situation of Porthmadog is somewhat anomalous as it is both an inner and outer gateway.
2.3 Roads:
The study area is crossed by limited road networks:
• A5, Betws-y-Coed – Capel Curig - Bethesda - Bangor: • A4086, Capel Curig - Pen y Pass- Llanberis - Caernarfon: • A498 Pen y Gwryd - Beddgelert - Porthmadog: • A4085, Caernarfon - Rhyd ddu - Beddgelert.
It is bounded by the A55 expressway, the A487 and the A470, all of which are major strategic trunk roads controlled by the National Assembly. There are also minor road networks around Bethesda and between Llanrwst and Y Carneddau and Ty Hyll which require specific consideration.
2.4 Rail links:
6 Bangor and Llandudno Junction are major stations on the Holyhead [Dublin] - London mainline, Porthmadog is served by the Cambrian Coast Line while a branch line from Llandudno Junction serves Llanrwst, Betws y Coed and Blaenau Ffestiniog. There is also an important and expanding narrow gauge railway network within the area which will impact on the scheme and will be alluded to later.
2.5 Basic data on visitor numbers and potential clientele for scheme
The Northern Snowdonia Study offers an estimate of the numbers visiting the core area and a breakdown on the major categories. Given the crucial significance of these data as they define the major “raw material” for these proposals, they are briefly summarised below. Similarly the road traffic survey data have been used to recalculate the possible use of the gateway facilities including the bus services and the impact of seasonality. These data are further cross checked against the data on existing parking both at designated sites and on/off road and fly parking in the core area as defined above.
1. The total number of visitor days/transit visits to the core area is probably in excess of 5 million annually. Over 90% of these make the journey by car/motor vehicle.
The Park Visitor Survey gives the following annual figures for the whole National Park as day visitors - 1.6m; visitors staying either in and outside Park - 4.3m; recreational trips/transits through the Park of less than 1.5h - 2.9m. There are suggestions that this survey because of neglecting evening visitors and the siting of survey points may have underestimated numbers. The Survey also suggests that at least 60% to 70% of these visits are to the core study area. The average holiday stay is about 5 days, which suggests about 0.8m individuals staying in the general area and visiting the core project area. Other data show a very high rate of return/regular visits. 85% of the visits occur between April and October.
This suggests that the annual “raw resource” is about 1 to 1.3 million visitor days, 0.6 to 0.7 million overnight visitors staying in the general area, staying an average of 5 days [for the purposes of this economic analysis, it is unimportant whether they staying within the National Park boundaries or in adjacent villages] and some 2 million transiting visitors.
To this must be added an ill-defined local demand which is itself a mixture of permanent local residents and the transient university student population in Bangor [now about 6,000, a significant number of whom will walk in the mountains often at weekends off-season].
2. Traffic flows give robust and accurate figures for the number of people moving through the area [see Figs 3.1, 3.2, 3.3 and 3.4 in NSS]. Total two way flows into the core area in summer are:- • 10,000 on A5 west of Betws (two flows into/out of Betws from the east are about 1400 higher),
7 • 6,200 on A5 south of Bethesda (two flows north of the village are 1500 higher), • 4,900 on A 4086 south east Llanberis (two way flows north of the village are 3300 higher), • two way flow figures on either side of Beddgelert are not available but must exceed 4000, (with an estimated two way flow at Waunfawr of 6600).
On this basis, the total high summer one way in-flows into the core area at Betws, Bethesda, and Llanberis and from Porthmadog and Waunfawr must exceed 10,000 vehicles per day [July, August]. On the basis of the Park Survey perhaps a third of these are either transiting or going for a sightseeing drive and may be reluctant to stop. The report also shows the great majority of vehicles have 2 or more passengers. For April, May, June, September and early October this inflow declines to 6-8,000 vehicles per day and to 2-4,000 in winter. However the flows will, at all times, vary with the weather e.g. winter snow as well as summer sunshine will both increase numbers sometimes dramatically as will special holidays/weekends. In contrast the flows on a wet Tuesday in December or January will be very small.
1. The visitor numbers to the main attraction mainly around the Park peak at an annual attendance of about 250,000 e.g. Swallow Falls, Padarn Country Park Llanberis. This is of the same order as Caernarfon Castle. The Welsh Highland Railway is anticipating larger numbers.
2. Breakdown of visitor groups suggest that the following categories need to be considered in the financial analysis; a) visitors staying in and around the Park subdivided into i] those in serviced accommodation circa 2,500 to 3000 centred on Betws y Coed, Llanberis and Beddgelert (average occupancy rates in North Wales tourist study quite show about 40 to 50%) and ii] those camping or in caravans, about 6500 fairly dispersed through the area. b) visitors, often elderly, staying around Llandudno and Caernarfon who might often visit Snowdonia by coach (the number of beds in Llandudno /Caernarfon / Bangor - Glannau Menai is much larger than in “Snowdonia”). c) general walkers and ramblers. d) more dedicated climbers/ outdoor pursuits enthusiasts, about 20% of visitors according to the Park Visitor Survey fall into this category. e) a small number of wildlife enthusiasts.
1. The Northern Snowdonia Study identifies 1400 on-road / roadside parking slots that would be displaced by the physical scheme to “reclaim the roadside” at peak periods. A further 200-300 spaces would be lost to high summer, long term parking in these proposals.
2. It is proposed that, in high summer, priority should be given to short term parking near settlements and cafes and at other strategic locations within
8 core area and to the provision of well located bus and coach stops. Provision should also be made for short, “photography” stops at strategic locations.
3. If some allowance is made for increased business created by the packages proposed and the gradual increase in car traffic at the UK level. It might be fair to estimate peak extra long term parking demand at 2000 places at the various gateways within 5 years. [The average daily increase in parking at the gateways will, of course, be lower perhaps 800- 1000.]
4. Clearly the bus capacity needs to cope with this demand and any additional demand from visitors who currently stop, say for example at Betws or Llanberis, and go no further but might be tempted to take a bus ride to Pen y Pass or Capel Curig if it is seen to be a ‘good buy’ within their ticket. Similarly a percentage of the transit trade on their way to Porthmadog, Eifionydd and Llyn may be encouraged to use the facilities on offer.
9 Based on this analysis the following flexible scenario is advocated:-
A. High season, high demand, full bus service as suggested in NSS but augmented as noted below. Short term parking only in core area up to two hours only, long term parking at gateways and ‘park and ride’ set at £5 per car - June, July, August, Sept.
B. Mid season, middling demand, public transport provision as envisaged in off-season of Snowdonia report, internal parking now geared to short term parking 2-3 h. and minibuses and coaches, basic park and ride set at £4 per car---March, April, May, October.
C. Winter period, low demand, lower level of public transport service, parking in inner car parks not time-limited, preference still given to minibuses and coaches, gateway ‘park and ride’ at relatively low basic fee [£3 per car]— Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. N.B. When the roadside parking is eliminated there must be a mechanism for “fine weekend” rapid increase in the bus service when the inner car parks are fully used. Perhaps the provision of especially extra buses can be linked to the school bus service as there is crudely an inverse relationship between the two.
With these scenarios in mind and based on the above data the following estimates are presented and used in subsequent section for detailed financial analyses:
• High season: average daily inflow of 9,000 cars (10% decrease from earlier figure to provide a conservative estimate [122 days] Assuming15% diversion to park and ride at £5 per car (2 or more passengers i.e.; 1350 car loads [2700 to 3000+ individuals]. About 1400 roadside car spaces will be displaced by the physical works of reclaiming the roadside and the provision of the “Sustrans” cycle routes, although the total number of long term parking spaces displaced is higher, so this estimate of the summer diversion rate seems robust. • Mid season: average daily inflows of 7,000 cars [122days] Assuming10% diversion to park and ride at £4 per car Averaging 2 passengers =700 car loads [1400+ individuals] Given that there will be proportionally more parking in core area in this season, a lower diversion rate of the daily traffic inflows is assumed. • Low season: average daily inflow of 3000cars [122days] Assuming 5% diversion to park and ride at £3 per car, averaging 2 passengers = 150 carloads [300+ individuals] A low diversion rate is assumed because of availability of long term internal parking in this season. However it should be noted that this has little effect on the economics of the scheme.
2.6 Cycle routes
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There is potentially a very strong positive synergy between the proposals contained in NSS and in this report and the proposed Sustrans cycle routes across Eryri. The proposed cycle route from Bangor to Betws y Coed fits extremely well with these proposals and would supplement both the visitor experience and the potential economic gain from the scheme.
Since in a few important locations the plan to “reclaim the road side” would interact with the cycle route e.g. near Llyn Ogwen, some cost savings might also be found. Similar synergistic gains will apply in the stretch between Capel Curig and Pen y Gwryd. In the suggestions for the ‘gateways’ these possibilities are borne in mind.
2.7 Welsh Highland Railway
Clearly this development will have a major impact on part of the core area and on Caernarfon as an outer gateway. Its possible impacts are only considered indirectly though different growth scenarios as most of the communities noted in the terms of reference lie outside the route of the line.
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Chapter 3
Gateways Sites and Services
This research has emphasised that the siting of new infrastructure developments and the facilities offered at each of the gateway locations are critical to the success of the project. This Study suggests that in order to encourage visitors to use their cars less, the proposed project will require some specific additional investments and regulations in a number of related areas. For example:
• investment in existing and new facilities to encourage visitors to utilise the public transport facilities currently and to use the additional facilities being made available by the Development Scheme
• restrictions on all long stay parking in public car parks in the inner core area during peak demand periods
• investment in verge restoration, such as low stone walls, will be needed to stop roadside parking
In this chapter a brief analysis of these issues is presented and suggestions made as to the preferred location of each gateway. In addition this section highlights the services and facilities that should be offered at the gateways to maximise the economic return from the capital investment and from the new ‘park and ride’ facility. Where appropriate, the cost of these has been incorporated into the economic impact assessment.
3.1 Inner gateways
It is proposed that the inner core area be defined as the mountain areas enclosed by Bethesda, Betws-y-Coed, Rhyd Ddu and Llanberis. The towns of Betws-y-Coed, Bethesda and Llanberis are suggested as inner gateways to the main mountain areas of Snowdonia. These centres are proposed as the bases for the additional Sherpa bus services.
Some essential investment and improvements are necessary at each site. For example:
• Each of the visitor centres must have on-line booking facilities for local accommodation and kiosks to allow visitors to browse and decide on/select their preferred activity depending on the time of year/conditions etc. This facility should become available in the local hotels through the televisions in the guest rooms as soon as possible - (this applies to all gateways and the rest of the development area and is not repeated for each site).
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3.1.1 Betws y Coed
Betws-y-Coed is a well established, commercially successful tourist centre; and its very attractive local environment straddles the A5. There has been significant private investment in the tourist market over recent years. This has manifested itself in the improvement of the quality of the commercial properties, conversions of non-tourist premises into leisure/ catering related businesses and an improvement in the quality of hotels and guest house accommodation. More recently, the village has seen new tourist related businesses at the northern end of the village and the substantial investment by Cotswold in the new shops between the Church and the Royal Oak in the centre of the village.
Betws-y-Coed is a tourist destination in its own right with varied activities for visitors (eating, drinking, shopping and sightseeing). The Park and Ride scheme will need to link into the main attractions: the river; the falls; the attractive stone/slate buildings; graded walks; National Park Centre; Motor Museum and the Station. At present the substantial areas of car parking are well sited to the north of the station and do not impinge on the attractive amenities of the village.
The village currently depends on tourist traffic from the north by the A470 and the railway from Llandudno Junction, together with the A5 tourist traffic from the Midlands and South.
Location details of Main Interchange/Service Area
The area near the Railway Station including the SNP Visitor Centre and the adjacent major car parks already has many of the required facilities and characteristics of a gateway.
This area could give convenient access to adjacent rail, bus, coaches, car parking and camping facilities and existing cafes and shops, and toilet facilities, as well as the main visitor area of Betws and various attractive walks. There are also some other adjacent visitor attractions e.g. Motor museum and light railway.
Upgrading and enhancement of tourism facilities within Betws:
• Lack of clear sign posting and the presence of MANWEB Transformer site restrict access to NP Visitor Centre. • Access to the riverside paths is obscure and uninviting. There is no access to the north bank of the Lligwy, which will also impede the development of and access to the proposed Cycle route down from Capel Curig [and Bangor] • Space for buses to turn is very restricted and there is no site for the display of information or to facilitate bus boarding • A picnic site could be developed near the river at the bottom of the car park
13 • Pedestrian movement in the village is at its greatest near the car park and gradually reduces to the northwest along Ffordd Caergybi. Beyond the attractive Pont-y-Pair and waterfalls, the pedestrian flow reduces dramatically. • A new short stay, well landscaped car park on the A5 at the western end of the village between Ffordd Caergybi and the river would substantially improve the commercial viability of the retail and guest house business of this part of the village and take pressure off the Pont-y-Pair car park. • The construction of this car park would need a ramp down to the river meadow at its western end. A natural ramp already exists on the eastern end of the proposed car park near the Chapel, which has recently been converted to a tourist shop. This would provide pedestrian access to the village. Due to the terrain, this would need to be a low-density car park with a considerable amount of tree planting. • At present Betws-y-Coed is not very pedestrian friendly. The relatively wide carriageway of the A5 cuts through the village creating considerable danger to pedestrians. Also, there is no footpath on substantial parts of the A5 (south side) adjoining many of the commercial premises. • As part of the Development Scheme, it is proposed that a traffic-calming scheme be implemented which would physically reduce the speed of traffic passing through the village to 20 mph. This could be achieved by introducing attractive traffic islands; reducing carriageway widths; ramps; rumble strips; areas of sets; and pedestrian crossings. In addition, footpaths should be provided on the south side of the A5 by reducing the carriageway to 5.5 metres for moving traffic (which is similar to that already available elsewhere in the village where permanent linear parking is allowed).
These proposals would encourage greater and longer pedestrian use of the streets, less danger and greater physical safety to pedestrians, resulting in economic benefit to the commercial premises.
Other features which would increase the visitors’ length of stay in the village would be to open up the existing public footpath from the National Park Centre northwards along the riverside, with connections to the car parks. A foot and/or cycle bridge across the river to Pentrefelin would provide another circular walk in the village.
A gateway facility could enhance these developments by being situated in the new car park as part of the Development scheme and linked to the rest of the village by these new tourist proposals. In addition improvements to sign- posting of the National Park Centre from the car park and station would increase visitor numbers to the Centre.
New Facilities:
• Car park secured either by CCTV and / or by attendant located
14 conveniently to sell park and ride and parking tickets [Applies to all sites] • Location for bus depot, bus turning area and information points [All sites] • New centre for cycle hire • New access to riverside path near bottom of car park would greatly facilitate access (without disruption to residents) to riverside walks and provide link for cycle route up the Lligwy valley and potentially down to Llanrwst • Wooden bridge over Lligwy near to Sewage Works (which can be largely shielded) would allow cycle and walking access to North bank and consequently much safer cycle access to the ‘Sustrans route’, and very pleasant circular walk about Betws and alternative access to Pont y Pair • Real time videos in Visitor Centre trained on wild life in Gwydyr Forest and/or on rivers e.g. birds nesting [raptors and woodland species], small animals [rabbits, foxes, badgers, otters]. C.f. Twr Elen and the Red Kite trail.
It is highly desirable that the MANWEB Transformer Station be moved to a site in or near the Hyder sewage works. This would facilitate the development of the whole area and remove a major eye sore and could provide an opportunity for private funding within Objective 1.
Other Issues:
• Clear sign posting on way into Betws y Coed. • Small roundabout on A5 at entrance to station road. • Easing pedestrian flow along main street by widening the pavement and narrowing the carriage way. • Easing short-term parking problem on NW side of the village by small new car park. • Possible covered walk way through tree lined path from visitor centre to main street would facilitate a longer season. • Care must be taken to ensure parking for local residents near their homes and for people staying at guest houses. • Although the capacity of Betws car park is not be to increased and is rarely full, plans must be made for the use of Llanrwst as an overflow. • Currently there is no easy access to horse riding/trekking centre. Since cycles and horses don’t mix well, it might desirable to develop riding area between the lower end of Capel Curig and Dolwyddelan. Other opportunities for riding may exist between Betws and Llanrwst .
3.1.2 Bethesda
A traditional slate quarrying village with strongly individualistic character but serious deprivation. No history of tourism and strong suspicion of being exploited dating back to Penrhyn Strike. Magnificent location including fine river and easy access to the major climbing /walking area around Ogwen/Idwal/Glyderau/Carneddau. Important area in history of international geology and home of children’s heroes, Wil Cwac Cwac and Sion Blewin Coch.
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The physical quality of the centre of Bethesda has improved over recent years by local initiatives. Convenient car parks have been constructed at the rear of the main street. Although the town is the closest community in Snowdonia to the A55, which is the main route to Snowdonia, at present most tourists drive straight through the town without stopping.
At present it has few very few tourist related facilities in the main street and fewer services. However, it has excellent access to A55 expressway and to trains in Bangor and natural gateway to Ogwen [also Idwal, Tryfan, Carneddau] which has a year round appeal both to visitors and to people living in Bangor and Ynys Mon. Bethesda has the potential to be a main route into the mountains of Snowdonia and should be developed as an Eryri Gateway. There is the possibility for significant community based development and for initiatives and investment that will increase employment and economic activity.
Proposals to develop Bethesda into a Snowdonia Gateway
1 The A5 again bursts its way through the town. Two straight, relatively wide carriageways lead into the town centre, which encourage traffic speeding with its resultant dangers and inconvenience to pedestrians.
It is proposed that a scheme of traffic calming, similar to that proposed for Betws-y-Coed, be implemented. This itself would be an economic benefit to the commercial premises in the town.
2 The attractive Ogwen River exists at the rear of the town centre and cannot be seen or appreciated by visitors.
It is proposed that this attractive section of riverside be developed as a park amenity, making the town an attractive place to visit or stop. Bridges over the river and picnic places should be considered.
3 It is proposed that a new gateway facility be constructed on the Bingo car park and former railway station area. This facility could include long stay parking; park and ride terminus; craft shops; leisure shops; motel; cafes; toilets; mountain interpretation centre; and a short stay tourist caravan park. The development could be sited within the existing extensively landscaped area. The development would be connected to the riverside park by new bridges.
The scheme should include the empty garage premises on Bangor Road and Station Road. The land is in two ownerships. Early discussions need to be undertaken with the landowners in order to unify the land ownership and agree a planning gain, as the development will not take place without a major public subsidy.
4 The existing junction giving access to this site from the A5 to Station Road is very dangerous, due to poor sight lines.
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It is proposed that this situation be improved by demolishing the empty garage premises and reducing the width of the carriageways to say 5.5 metres on the A5, as part of the traffic calming measures. An attractive and more expensive solution would be to construct a new access to the area from the A5 on the western outskirts of the town, across another land ownership.
5 Service buses would stop at the new gateway facility and also in the centre of the town.
6 Snowdonia and the new gateway should be signposted on the A55 leading visitors through Bethesda.
Location details of Main Interchange / Service Area.
• The area on the north end of the town at the old railway yard between the old Purple Motors garage and the Rugby ground, including the river frontage, is recommended strongly. • There are no existing services or facilities but there is ample room to develop and to do so in a way to maximise the benefits to the businesses on the High Street as well as creating completely new businesses. • To achieve such integration it will be necessary to build two wooden bridges over the Ogwen, one to take both foot and cycle traffic near the gateway and the other pedestrians only to create a short cut to the main street.
New facilities
A Park and Ride gateway will have to be established from scratch comprising. • Secure car park with bus depot/ turning area/information/ visitor centre with ITC facilities as previously noted. • Wooden bridge over the Ogwen to picnic site in woods. • Various river side walks linked to second bridge into middle of Bethesda near small new car park in centre of village to stimulate local trade. • Links to Betws-Capel Curig-Ogwen-Bethesda- Bangor cycle route which would pass through this site. • Cycle Hire Centre. • Museum of Geological History or similar [possibly sponsored by McAlpine as part of private funding of Objective 1?] should be clearly distinct from Llanberis Electric Mountain. • National Trust should be approached with a view to relocating steam engines from Castell Penrhyn to suitable location at this site - their original home. • A children play area/ mini-park featuring Wil Cwac Cwac and Sion Blewin Coch. • The site is large enough to cater for a mobile caravan park and /or a small
17 motel • Craft centre, including slate crafts, and local painters gallery • Riverside café/restaurant at location of builder yard?
Other Issues
• Ownership of land /fate of the bingo hall/ links to Rugby club and business beyond will need to be investigated. • Entry from the main A5 road. A new access before the houses on the west side would be desirable. Part of land owned by Penrhyn Estate. Currently the road into the village and access to this site is potentially dangerous. • It would be very desirable even essential to relocate the builders yard on the river bank as it is an eyesore and the area is potentially a very useful part of the whole site. • Given the community of Bethesda there may be possibilities of some civic initiatives along with co-operative ownership of the initiative. • The problem of unregulated parking in Gerlan etc must be addressed; possible opening for a minibus service from the main “park and ride” gateway to that area which could be run locally. Fly parking must be controlled and the needs of local people protected. • Signing of this gateway from A55 and on A5 through and into Bethesda is critical.
The establishment of a new gateway facility would enable visitors to stop in the town and would ultimately considerably improve the economy of the town. A scheme of this nature could be built by the private sector, with adequate rental guarantees for a substantial time period. Otherwise, it could be developed by the public sector with grants.
3.1.3 Llanberis
Llanberis is a very well established tourist centre with numerous facilities, in addition to Snowdon and the lakes, to keep visitors in town for longer periods as compared with Betws-y-Coed and Bethesda. The area appears to have ample car parking on different sites. The location of the car parking and tourist facilities is at the eastern end of the town, which does not substantially benefit the commercial premises in the traditional town centre.
The town is both a vibrant community and a major tourist centre at the foot of Snowdon with access to Pen-y-Pass and to the rock climbing area in Nant Peris. It also has a rich Welsh Literary tradition. Many major attractions including:- Snowdon railway, Electric Mountain, Parc Padarn and Slate Museum, Llynnoedd Padarn and Peris and Castell Dolbadarn. However, the centre of village is not readily accessed from the car parks and there is a growing problem of indiscriminate visitor parking becoming a nuisance to residents.
To some extent Llanberis is already a de facto gateway with many services and facilities and attractions in its own right. However there appears to be
18 little co-ordination or focus and better integration and more convenient physical layout to facilitate the modal shift between car and bus is necessary.
Main Proposals for improvements at Llanberis
1 Implement a street improvement scheme in the traditional commercial area of the town, with floor treatment, landscaping, traditional street furniture etc. This could involve reducing the street to one lane in places in order to create scope for landscaping. Since the main street was by-passed, the volume of traffic in this street is very small. This proposal would make this street a more attractive place and encourage visitors’ spending.
2 The Glyn car park, near Llyn Padarn, is proposed as a long stay car park with the adjoining car park near Electric Mountain being designated as a short stay car park.
3 The main bus pick up point for a park and ride scheme is proposed in the existing commercial centre to encourage visitors’ spending. An existing footpath connects the Glyn car park and the main street.
4 A Tourist Information/Bus Centre should be made available nearer the car parks by using the Community Centre. This is the most strategically appropriate site giving good access to ample parking, to Electric Mountain, to the boats plying the lake and to the Padarn railway, if the plans for extention come to fruition, as well as the Snowdon Mountain railway. A new site would have to be identified for the Community Centre
5 Landscaping and new surface treatment are proposed at the car park opposite the Station (Royal Victoria Hotel ownership), the railway station forecourt and the Community Centre to enhance the appearance of these areas.
Location details of main interchange/service area
The preferred option would be to change the community centre into the visitor centre /bus depot, as it is well sited, and develop another community centre at another location more central to the village. Most of the other facilities are present but uncoordinated and the businesses in the centre of the village remain divorced from the main tourist area.
New facilities
• At the newly located visitor centre, park and ride facilities should be enhanced by real time video facilities for viewing wildlife and for giving climate data for the summit of Snowdon and locally at lake side. This would give visitors a real sense of contrast with altitude and of the natural history (and would not over lap with Electric Mountain).
19 • Potential to make more of cultural history including Castell Dolbadarn c.f. Caernarfon, both in relation to Welsh history and literature and as a contribution to art history in terms of Turner and the romantics.
Other Issues
• Fly parking in village a major nuisance and needs control so as to benefit local residents. • Need to facilitate transfer from cars to bus. As currently set out there would be rather a long walk. • Need to ensure the bus also picks up and set down in middle of village. • The charging regime in the various public and private car parks are uncoordinated and requires Gwynedd to take a lead in collaboration with trade interests. • Possible need for local minibus service to take visitors to Slate Museum, the Country Park and to Padarn Railway, although extension of Padarn Railway to rear of proposed visitor centre being explored. • Strong case for local co-operative initiatives within project. • Implement a street improvement scheme in the traditional commercial area of the town, with floor treatment, landscaping, and traditional street furniture etc. This could involve reducing the street to one lane in places in order to create scope for landscaping. Since the main street was by- passed, the volume of traffic in this street is very small. This proposal would make this street a more attractive place and encourage visitors’ spending. • The Glyn car park, near Llyn Padarn, is proposed as a long stay car park with the adjoining car park near Electric Mountain being designated as a short stay car park. • The bus pick up points for a park and ride scheme would be both in the existing commercial centre to encourage visitors’ spending, which is connected by an existing footpath to the Glyn car park (this could and should be covered) and at the visitor centre. • Landscaping and new surface treatment are proposed at the car park opposite the Station (Royal Victoria Hotel ownership), the railway station forecourt and the old Community Centre / proposed visitor centre to enhance the appearance of these areas.
3.1.4 Llanrwst
Small market town with a number of local dynamic enterprises especially strong in food sector, strong links with Llywelyn Fawr and Elizabethan Welsh history. Delightful river frontage and natural gateway to much of Gwydyr Forest and to Llynnoedd Geirionydd, Crafnant, Eigiau, Cowlyd and the Eastern Carneddau. Possible overflow for Betws as well as being a centre with its own unique character. Site of the proposed new Harp Centre
Location details of Interchange/Service Area
• There is an existing large car park near the river, which would form the
20 basis of the gateway. However access to much of the town and the river walk and the historic church is impeded by the Local Authority road depot. It also contains an old rather dilapidated cinema, which could be the location of the proposed Harp Centre. • Any redevelopment depends on moving the Council Depot. However the river frontage between the Church and the old cinema has potential and has wonderful views of the river and the hills. • Llanrwst is a natural gateway to the eastern part of Snowdonia.
New Facilities
• Riverside recreation area with good access to town restaurants and shops. • Requires visitor centre / bus terminus/ with good toilet facilities etc as listed for other sites. • Picnic site by the river. • Development of a farmers market with other local produce e.g. cakes and deli products, which would build on the existing strengths of Llanrwst and its role as a market town for Nant Conwy. • Good sites for development of walks and cycle routes on the valley floor, possibly up to Betws and to the Gwydyr Forest. • Separate “park and ride” to the lakes above Trefriw, integrated into parking facilities at Trefriw. • Industrial archaeology trail and unique light-independent food chain in old mines which deserves to be publicised. • Strong emphasis on Welsh social history and cultural heritage to link with proposed Harp Centre and to Eglwysi Crwst, Gwydr Uchaf and Llanrychwyn and to Gwydr castle and to the Renaissance - Elizabethan Wales
Other Issues
• Problem of pedestrian and cycle traffic across river to link with forest trails as the Inigo Jones bridge is very narrow. • Traffic through town / development of old market square and / fate of proposed by-pass need to addressed. • Distance from rail station to site of gateway. • Relocation of Conwy depot essential. • Signing in relation to facilities at Betws on A470. • Signing to enable efficient use of Llanrwst as overflow for Betws y Coed.
3.2 Inner core area
3.2.1 Beddgelert
Delightful scenic tourist village, but rural charm is being diminished by heavy traffic and congestion - especially on the bridge and river frontage. However,
21 the tourist trade is very dependent currently on car users and local demand for extra parking. Currently NP parking is exceptionally cheap. With advent of Welsh Highland Railway, direct links will be in place by train to Porthmadog and Caernarfon
Issues
• Location of bus stop with shelter and information: a site near the existing NP car park and the new WHR station seems desirable. • Changes in parking in the village must be carefully co-ordinated with development of new transport/visitor access opportunities to maintain/ expand the local trade and seek to extend the season. • Aim might be over time to achieve a major decrease in cars over bridge/ along river frontage and in the small square. • This could increase the attraction of the village substantially and extend the season given the move to weekend breaks. • Build on links with very extensive NT holdings in the area - both Craflwyn and Hafod y Borth and the Llynnau Gwynant and Dinas and Sygun Copper mine. • Very serious consideration should be given to bypassing the village, on both east and west, creating a pedestrian precinct in centre of the village and along the rivers.
A major issue to be addressed is the various transport links. A detailed joint study of both village traffic and the pass is required by SNP, NT as landowners and Gwynedd as the Highway Authority. Main concerns will be road access [for buses as well as cars and delivery vehicles], the WHR trains, and facilities for walkers and cyclists through the Aberglaslyn pass, which is itself a major landmark and visitor attraction.
3.2.2 Capel Curig
A small nuclear community in the heart of the mountains, with a range of accommodation and some shops. Important junction for bus routes and the site of Plas y Brenin outdoor centre.
Issues.
• Parking/charging regime at small car park should be designed to encourage short stays in high/mid season and to stimulate trade in local shops. • Site for cycle hire/interchange point • Major bus interchange point requiring good shelter for travellers and information points. • Encourage Plas y Brenin to use new bus facilities rather than duplicate. • Opportunities for local hotels to package new services including Bus services and cycle routes. • Quality control in hotels and guest houses will be essential [applies to all locations].
22
3.2.3 Rhyd Ddu
An old quarry village with no shops and receives far fewer visitors that other parts of Eryri. Nevertheless it is the start of one of the main routes up Snowdon and will be important station on WHR
Issues
• No shops left. • Needs to be brought in as scheme develops and WHR is built. • Car park has low usage and lower charges at car park should be encouraged to distribute visitors away from “honey pots” once the scheme is firmly in place. • In time it should be possible to develop links to inner gateway at Nantlle/Pen y Groes.
3.4 Mixed inner and outer gateway
3.4.1 Porthmadog
In the south there is no clear distinction between inner and outer gateways and the crucial access locus [however defined] is Porthmadog/ Tremadog. There is a consensus that Beddgelert is not a “gateway” but part of the core of Snowdonia. Porthmadog is important as the site of both Ffestiniog and Welsh highland railway termini and with access to Cambrian Coast Line and indirectly to UK mainline network It is also on the main route from the English Midlands to Pen Llyn and is a major yachting and tourist centre in its own right. The original report did not address the development of this gateway.
Issues
• Location of “gateway” site to facilitate inter-modal shifts—possibly near existing main line station — will require a car/bus/train interchange. • Impact of routing of the WHR through town and possible road developments on A487 need to be taken into account. • Relationship of gateway to town centre and existing busy shopping area will be crucial.
3.5 Outer gateways
3.5.1. Caernarfon
Detailed suggestions lie well out side this report but it is clear that the principles noted earlier apply.
Observations/issues
23
• As an outer gateway the town will be linked to Snowdonia by two frequent bus services – via Llanberis through to Pen-y-Pass, and through Waunfawr and Rhyd Ddu to Beddgelert. Also by train by the same route to Beddgelert and to Porthmadog. • The link between town and hinterland should be reinforced and the scheme should provide the local people with cheap bus fares into Snowdonia. • The specific spatial relationships between the “ Park and Ride” facilities and in-town parking requires careful attention so as to allow easy, convenient preferably covered transfer to both buses and WHR and to stimulate business in the town. • As in other gateways, the provision of other facilities and interests is imperative. In Caernarfon the Castle dominates and must be reinvigorated. It would seem very desirable to cover part of the interior space to allow covered concerts and events viz. successful Opera and pop concerts last summer. Such a development could reinforce the Snowdonia Sustainable Development Strategy proposed here. • Potential for hotels and guest houses to be offering ‘specials’ including ‘Easy Rides’ to mountains
3.5.2. Bangor
Again no detailed analysis will be offered but the city is clearly important as the railhead for Gwynedd and much of Ynys Mon, a major shopping centre and the site of the University. Many students choose Bangor because of the local environment and out-door recreational facilities.
Issues
• Ease of access from trains to buses at Bangor station. • Site of terminus of cycle routes both along coast and to Bethesda. Major potential as intermodal point for the whole area but existing traffic problems in town and it is unclear how a safe cycle route can be established which allows transfer at station. • Use of Park and Ride by UWB students who might be significant users in the low and mid seasons. • Links to Penrhyn Castle and NT facilities generally will need to be investigated.
3.5.3. Llandudno Junction
Issues
• Major potential as another intermodal point for whole area as conjunction of main Holyhead/Dublin to London railway / Conwy valley line /A55 express way /A470 main N/S road route in Wales. • Could give choices to visitors of easy, convenient access to:- Conwy itself/ Dyffryn Conwy including Bodnant Gardens /Llanrwst/Betws/ much of
24 Snowdonia and Llandudno itself by a mixture of rail and bus. • Site of old rail yard and shed will be important to future developments but plans are afoot to develop it as a cinema complex • Ease of access from mainline train to other trains to Llanrwst, Betws and Blaenau or to Eryri buses needs to be designed carefully, together with appropriate visitor facilities. • No relationships have been developed with Eryri buses in the existing scheme but some links are apparently being considered.
3.6. Future Gateways
3.6.1.Waunfawr/Betws Garmon and Nantlle/PenyGroes
Capable of being developed as inner gateways with time in a similar way to Rhyd Ddu.
3.6.2 Ffestiniog and Dolwyddelan
Urgent attention must be given to integrating these towns into the scheme.
3.7 Traffic Related Issues Underpining the Scheme
The basic traffic related aims of the integrated development scheme are to reduce the amount of parking within the mountain area, thus enhancing the beauty and attractiveness of the area to visitors, and to encourage more people to visit the area by public transport.
The main problems are :
1 That climbers and walkers have traditionally parked their cars and mini- buses in the mountain, near where their activities start.
2 That encouraging visitors who already travel by car to switch modes of transport, i.e. abandon their vehicle and travel by bus, is very difficult.
Therefore the success of the park and ride scheme will be dependent on :
1 Implementing a scheme of verge restoration, such as low stone walls or mounded grass verges to stop roadside parking.
2 Restricting all long stay parking in public car parks in the inner core area of the mountains during the peak demand periods, i.e. the summer months and spring and autumn weekends.
3 Designating lay-bys as short stay car parks for sightseers, picnickers etc. during peak demand periods.
25 4 The ‘enforcement’ of these traffic regulations. The National Park Wardens will need to become actively involved in warning drivers who abuse the regulations.
3.7.5 Existing Bus Services
The bus services proposed in NSS have not been revisited but the following points are made :
There should be a direct bus from Caernarfon to Pen y Pass every 30-min i.e. one of the services now starting from Llanberis should start in Caernarfon. This would mean a direct service every 15-min in high summer from the Castle car park to either Pen y Pass or Beddgelert as well as the new railway.
The Snowdonia mountain area is currently well serviced by public transport to satisfy local needs. Approximately 60 buses pass through Snowdonia during a summer weekday. Most of the bus services originate outside the Inner Core Area, e.g. Bangor, Caernarfon, Porthmadog and Llandudno. In addition, the Conway Valley Railway links into the area at Betws-y-Coed.
Private coaches, such as Creams of Llandudno, offer day and half day tours of the area. Many visitors come to Llandudno on coach holidays, which includes a trip around Snowdonia in their own coach. These coach trips will need to become an integral part of the scheme.
3.7.2. Proposed Park and Ride Service
It is proposed that the park and ride service starts with the existing bus/train services serving the area and bringing people into the mountain. Additional bus services are suggested during the summer months and autumn/spring weekends.
The additional buses could run in between the existing bus services, giving a minimum half hour service connecting the three Gateways of Betws-y-Coed, Bethesda and Llanberis. For example:
• Llanberis - Bethesda • Llanberis - Betws-y-Coed • A mini bus connection from Pen-y-Gwryd to Rhyd Ddu. • Interchange bus connections at Pen-y-Gwryd and Capel Curig.
This combination could give a quarter hour service between Llanberis and Capel Curig at peak periods.
It is proposed that the Pen-y-Pass car park be reserved as a bus/coach stop, short stay car parking and some parking in the evenings for the Youth Hostel. This will be of particular commercial benefit to the Cafe.
Taken together these proposals would require only a minimal number of additional buses.
26
3.7.3. Standards of buses
All Sherpa buses should have a standard livery; space for rucksacks; a cycle rack at the rear; drivers trained to give advice on the area; a public address system; information etc. The new buses should be environmentally friendly. Due to the limited periods during the year that the buses would be operating in the mountain, it would have to be accepted that the buses would be used for other purposes, such as school transport etc., to make the scheme economical.
Bus shelters constructed of stone and slate should be provided at important bus stops. Walking/climbing information should be available at the bus stops. Discreet signs should be erected leading from the bus stops to the main walks/climbs.
3.7.4. Advance Signposting and Time-tabling
The provision of adequate signposting is an important element of the scheme. A series of signs on the approach to the Gateways could state bilingually :
• No long stay parking in Snowdonia today • Long stay parking at Betws-y-Coed (free) - bus transfer to mountain. • Other Long stay parking.
Simplified time table information should be made available at all bus stops giving times of buses from that stop to various destinations, eg from Llanberis :
Pen-y-Pass Rhyd Ddu Capel Curig Betws-y-Coed Bethesda 8.30 8.30 8.30 8.30 8.45 8.45 9.00 8.45 9.00 9.15 9.00 10.00 9.00 9.30 9.45
Similar timetables should be made available for buses and trains from hotels and guest houses inside and outside the Inner Core Area.
27
3.7.5 Long Stay Car Parks
Supervised long stay car parks are proposed at :
Betws-y-Coed The rear of the existing car park near the Station would be reserved for their use, with bus pick-up points at the Station, Anna Davies and Pont- y-Pair.
Bethesda A new car park proposed at the Gateway Centre near the former Station/Bingo Hall, off Station road. Bus pick-up points at the Gateway Centre and in the main street.
Llanberis The existing Glyn car park would be reserved for their use, with a bus pick-up point in the main village street.
Rhyd Ddu A charge is suggested for the use of the car park, with the demand being monitored - especially since the proposed Highland Railway will give additional access to the mountain area, through a direct connection to Rhyd Ddu.
3.7.7. Sustrans
The development of cycle routes through Snowdonia should be encouraged. The shale parking areas on the A5 at Llyn Ogwen could be used as a cycle route. This would be a good practical use for these areas and possibly reduce the objection to their removal as parking areas.
28 Chapter 4
The Economic Impact
4.1 Introduction
The analysis has concentrated on the likely income flows from both capital and revenue expenditure over the first five years of the scheme. These expenditure flows have then been integrated into the Welsh Input-Output tables to analyse the total economic impacts across different sectors in terms of jobs and incomes. The methodology for this analysis is set out in detail in Annex 2 on Methodology.
At the outset the initial expenditure flows were estimated from an analysis of the All Parks Visitor Survey data and other existing estimates summarised in the “Northern Snowdonia Study” produced by the Environmental Planning Research Unit at Cardiff University. This provided an outline of the capital expenditure required to set up the scheme and the income that may be generated as a result, through car parking and the sale of park and ride tickets. From the fieldwork and other research the following detailed estimates of capital and revenue expenditures were derived.
4.2 Capital Expenditure
It was beyond the scope of the brief to provide detailed accurate costs for all elements of capital expenditure that would necessarily have to be undertaken to operationalise the Scheme. However, wherever possible and in order to provide an estimate of the total economic impact, all significant and relevant items have been estimated and included in the costings. Where new figures have not been generated, the estimates are taken from Figure 6.7 of the Northern Snowdonia Study Report. Other facilities and services that would be required in each of the internal gateways are detailed in Annex 1.
Table 1.1 therefore provides an initial appraisal of the range of facilities that will be required to implement the scheme with an approximation of the costs associated with these items.
Table 4.1: Capital Expenditure Costings
Project Cost (£) Notes Reclaiming the roadside 900,000 Verges and stone walls Cycle Route 300,000 Cycle route from Bangor to Betws including bridge to avoid village and Pont Y Pair Gateway at Bethesda & 3 million Includes riverside improvements, road Regenerating the infrastructure and new gateway facilities. Community Changes at Betws 1 million Includes riverside improvements, widening pavement and narrowing
29 carriageway on main street, new roundabout on A5.
Traffic calming & Signing 1 million Includes Betws, Bethesda & Llanberis CCTV System 60,000 Automatic Barriers 60,000 6 @ £10,000 each Solar Powered Ticket 36,000 12 @ £3,000 machines Bus Stops & Shelters 100,000 Stonework Information Points 8,000 8 @ £1,000 Alterations at Pen Y Pass 15,000 Bus turning circle, new minibus, coach parking bays Traffic counters 30,000 Set up network of traffic counters Purchase of buses 450,000 5 buses @ £90,000 each Back-up buses for peak 61,000 5 buses @ £100 a day for 122 days times
TOTAL £7.02m
Possible Extras Gateway works at 500,000 Additional Llanberis Changes at Llanrwst 500,000 Additional Car Parks full signing & 550,000 Optional extra real time bus information Electronic Information 400,000 Optional extra at each gateway Kiosks With additional works and real time bus TOTAL £8.97m information at car parks, full signing and electronic information kiosks included
Therefore the total estimated capital expenditure required to operationalise the proposed park & ride scheme is £7.02 million. If additional gateways are developed and real time bus information, a system of signing the car parks to show when they are full and electronic visitor information kiosks at the gateways are all required then the estimated capital costs will increase to £8.97 million.
Utilising the income and employment multipliers derived from the Input Output Tables and detailed in Annex 2 it is now possible to estimate the total impact this expenditure will have on the local economies of Gwynedd and Conwy. Not all of this initial capital expenditure will be spent within the local economy, some will be used to purchase goods and services from outside the region. Although wherever possible local labour and raw materials should be used to maximise the knock on benefits to the local economy, it may not always be possible to purchase locally because there may be no company/individual within Gwynedd or Conwy who can supply the good or service required. Given that very specialised high tech items such as solar powered ticket
30 machines, real time bus information, electronic information kiosks etc. will be required, it is likely that a large proportion of this capital expenditure will be made outside Gwynedd and Conwy.
Therefore, based on data from the Welsh Input-Output tables, which show for example that 40% of construction inputs are sourced outside Gwynedd and Conwy, and taking the specialised capital items into consideration, we have assumed that 60% of capital expenditure will be made outside of the local economy. This expenditure is classed as a leakage from the local economy and will not increase income or employment levels in the Gwynedd and Conwy.
It is unlikely that it would be possible to source the real time bus information system and the car park signage locally. Therefore including them in the capital expenditure would not lead to any significant increase in income and employment in the local area as the expenditure would largely become a leakage out of the local economy.
On this basis, the capital expenditure that would take place within Gwynedd & Conwy is around £2.808million.
Table 4.2: Total Impact on Income and Employment of £2.808 million Capital Expenditure
Multiplier Direct Direct & TOTAL Effects Indirect IMPACT Increase in income £0.618m £0.786m £0.899m
Increase in Employment 75 94 107
Table 1.2 shows the additional income and employment that would be generated in Gwynedd and Conwy from an initial £2.808 million capital outlay. The multiplier process would generate a £0.899 million increase in income which, when added to the initial capital expenditure, gives a total increase in income in Gwynedd and Conwy of £3.707 million. Similarly, the capital expenditure would directly create 75 jobs in the local economy and 32 jobs indirectly to bring the total increase in employment as a result of this injection into the economy to 107 full-time equivalent jobs.
4.3 Revenue From The Proposed New Scheme
The proposed park and ride scheme has the potential to generate revenue in several different ways. The main sources of income will be the sale of park and ride tickets, the sale of bus tickets to public transport visitors and the revenue generated from short term car parking within the National Park.
31 In contrast to the initial Northern Snowdonia Study, which breaks down the year into a summer and winter period for the purpose of car parking charges and public transport provision, we propose three different seasons of 122 days duration each - low season, mid season and high season:
• The low season would run between November and February when it is envisaged there would be a relatively low demand for car parking and a low level of public transport services. Parking in the inner car parks would be at a relatively low fee and not time limited.
• The mid season would cover March, April, May and October. Over this period there would be middling demand for car parking and public transport provision would be along the lines of the winter season in the previous Snowdonia Report. Internal parking would now be geared to short term parking of 2 to 3 hours and minibuses and coaches would be given preference.
• The high season runs from June to September. At this time visitor numbers to the National Park are at their highest and there would be a high demand for car parking with short term parking up to 2 hours only in the core area. A full bus service would be in operation and it is proposed that there should be stand by buses also available to cope with the increased demand of peak periods.
4.3.1 Direct Revenue from the Park & Ride Scheme
The calculations of revenue from the park and ride scheme are based on the observed traffic flows into the park detailed in Figures 3.1, 3.2 & 3.3 in the Northern Snowdonia Study Report. The estimated costs of the park and ride scheme are shown in Table 1.3.
Table 4.3: Proposed Costs of Park & Ride Scheme
High Mid Low Season Season Season Inner Gateways: Betws Y Coed, Bethesda, Llanberis & Porthmadog - per car £5 £4 £3 - per minibus £8 £7 £6
Outer Gateways: Caernarfon & Llanrwst - per car £4 £3 £2 - per minibus £7 £6 £5
The calculation of the park and ride income in the high season (June, July, August & September) assumes that there is an average daily inflow of 9,000 cars into the inner study area. Bearing in mind that 1400 roadside car parking spaces will be displaced by the reclaiming the roadside capital works,
32 assuming a 15% diversion to the park and ride scheme would mean a daily average of 1350 cars using the park & ride facilities.
In the Mid Season the daily inflow of cars has been assumed to decrease to 7,000 cars and the diversion to park & ride could now be expected to decrease to 10% given the fact that there would be proportionately more parking available in the core study area. This equates to 700 cars using the park & ride system daily.
To calculate the park and ride income in the low season it has been assumed that there would be an average daily inflow of 3000 cars into the National Park of which 5% use the park and ride facility (given the availability of internal parking in this season). Therefore, a potential 150 cars could be using the park and ride facility daily.
The estimated income from park and ride at each gateway is shown in Table 4.4.
Table 4.4: Estimated Income from Park and Ride
Number High Mid Low Total of Season Season Season Spaces Betws Y 250 £132,823 £55,097 £ 8,855 £196,775 Coed Bethesda 250 £132,823 £55,097 £ 8,855 £196,775 Llanrwst 200 £ 85,006 £33,058 £ 4,723 £122,787 Llanberis 400 £212,516 £88,155 £14,167 £314,838 Porthmadog 300 £159,387 £66,116 £10,626 £236,129 Caernarfon 150 £ 63,755 £24,794 £ 3,542 £ 92,091 TOTAL 1550 £786,310 £322,317 £50,768 £1,159,395
Total park and ride revenue is therefore estimated to be £1.159 million. This figure is an underestimate of the total revenue that could be expected to be generated as it does not include an estimate for the number of minibuses that would be using the park and ride facilities. As shown in table 4.3 it is proposed that minibuses would be charged a higher rate of parking than cars but as we do not know what proportion of vehicles entering the park are minibuses. All vehicles using the park and ride facility have been assumed to be cars and charged the lower parking rate.
4.3.2 Sale of Bus-only Tickets to Public Transport Users
The All Parks Visitor Survey estimates that there are 550,000 visitors to the National Park who make their journey to the park by public transport. As these individuals have no need for a full park and ride ticket they will instead need to purchase a bus only ticket that will give them unlimited access to transport within the park for the whole day. It is proposed that such a ticket
33 will cost £1.50 full-fare in the high season with a concessionary rate of £1 for children, OAPs, unemployed etc., £1 full fare in the mid season with an 80p concessionary rate and 50p for all passengers in the low season. Using estimates from the All Parks Visitor Survey of the distribution throughout the year of visitors to the park it is possible to calculate the proportion of public transport users who visit the park in each season. Therefore the total income that could be generated by the sale of bus only tickets is estimated at £658,533.
4.3.3 Income from Season Tickets for Residents
It is proposed that local residents will be offered cheap season tickets to travel on the buses. The price of the tickets could be set at £20 per year full cost and a £10 per year concessionary rate for the unemployed, OAPs etc. The Northern Snowdonia Study estimated that there was a population of 7,705 in the inner study area in 1991. Without knowing the proportion of these local residents who regularly use public transport it is impossible to estimate the revenue that will be generated from the sale of season tickets.
4.3.4 Income from Short Term Car Parking
The proposed car parking charges for the Short term car parks within the National Park are shown in Table 1.5, together with the number of spaces available. Once the bus service and the highland railway are in place in Beddgelert, the car parking charges would increase. Similarly, the charges in Rhyd Ddu will increase when the gateway has been developed in Waunfawr/Nantlle and the railway is in place.
Table 4.5 Charging Structure for Short Term Car Parking
High Season Mid Season Low Season Spaces Betws Y £1 for 2 hours £1 for 3 hours £1 up to 4 Coed* £2 for 3 hours £2 for 4 hours hours 170 £4 for 4 hours £4 over 4 £2 over 4 £5 all day hours hours Pen Y Pass £2 per hour £2 for 2 hours £2 for 4 hours Maximum £4 for 4 hours £3 per day 70 2 hour stay Maximum 4 hour stay Beddgelert** - initially £1 for 2 hours £1 for 2 hours £1 for 2 hours 100 £5 all day £4 all day £3 all day
- after railway £1 for 1 hour £1 for 2 hours free, no limit 100 £2 for 2 hours £2 for 4 hours Maximum Maximum 2 hours stay 4 hours stay
34 Ogwen £2 per hour £2 for 2 hours £2 for 4 hours Maximum £4 for 4 hours £3 per day 35 2 hour stay Maximum 4 hour stay Rhyd Ddu - initially £1 after 12pm £1 after 12pm £0.50 after 100 £2 full day £2 full day 12pm £1 full day
- after gateway £2 per hour £2 for 2 hours £2 per 4 hours 100 Maximum £4 for 4 hours £3 per day 2 hour stay Nant £2 per hour £2 for 2 hours £2 for 4 hours Gwynant Maximum £4 for 4 hours £3 per day 35 2 hour stay Maximum 4 hour stay
Capel Curig** £1 for 1 hour £1 for 2 hours Free, no limit 34 £2 for 2 hours £2 for 4 hours Max 2 hours Max stay 4 hours stay Bethesda £1 for 2 hours £1 for 3 hours £1 up to 4 £2 for 3 hours £2 for 4 hours hours 200 £4 for 4 hours £4 over 4 £2 over 4 £5 all day hours hours Llanberis £1 for 2 hours £1 for 3 hours £1 up to 4 £2 for 3 hours £2 for 4 hours hours 477 £4 for 4 hours £4 over 4 £2 over 4 £5 all day hours hours Porthmadog £1 for 2 hours £1 for 3 hours £1 up to 4 £2 for 3 hours £2 for 4 hours hours 150 £4 for 4 hours £4 over 4 £2 over 4 £5 all day hours hours
*Some of the car parking spaces are currently constrained by a restrictive covenant preventing charging. **It is proposed that car park users in Capel Curig and Beddgelert will be offered free parking if they spend a certain amount in the local shops.
To enable us to provide a range of estimates of car park income, three different scenarios have been developed - high, median and low, using different occupancy rates depending on the time of year. The high scenario assumes the same occupancy rates in the car parks throughout all three tourism seasons while the median and low scenarios assume that the car parks will be used less in the mid and low seasons than in the high season when visitor numbers are at their peak.
Table 4.6 Short Term Car Parking Income
35 Occupanc Potential Occupanc Potential Occupanc Potential y Income y Income y Income Rate £000s Rate £000s Rate £000s (High) (Median) (Low) Betws Y High 50% High 50% High 45% Coed Mid 50% £124.44 Mid 40% £105.77 Mid 35% £93.33 Low 50% Low 30% Low 25% Pen Y Pass High 70% High 70% High 60% Mid 70% £164.40 Mid 60% £151.59 Mid 50% £128.10 Low 70% Low 50% Low 40% Beddgelert High 80% High 80% High 70% Mid 80% £78.01 Mid 70% £69.13 Mid 60% £59.37 - initially Low 80% Low 60% Low 50%
-after High 80% High 80% High 70% railway Mid 80% £78.01 Mid 70% £74.83 Mid 60% £65.07 Low 80% Low 60% Low 50%
Ogwen High 70% High 70% High 60% Mid 70% £82.20 Mid 60% £75.79 Mid 50% £64.05 Low 70% Low 50% Low 40% Rhyd Ddu High 20% High 20% High 20% Mid 20% £9.15 Mid 15% £7.32 Mid 10% £6.41 - initially Low 20% Low 10% Low 10%
- after High 20% High 20% High 20% gateway Mid 20% £67.10 Mid 15% £57.95 Mid 10% £53.07 Low 20% Low 10% Low 10% Nant High 80% High 80% High 80% Gwynant Mid 80% £93.94 Mid 70% £87.54 Mid 60% £81.13 Low 80% Low 60% Low 40% Capel High 60% High 60% High 50% Curig Mid 60% £14.93 Mid 50% £14.10 Mid 40% £11.62 Low 60% Low 40% Low 30% Bethesda High 30% High 30% High 20% Mid 30% £87.84 Mid 20% £71.98 Mid 20% £58.56 Low 30% Low 20% Low 20% Llanberis High 30% High 30% High 30% Mid 30% £209.50 Mid 25% £183.31 Mid 20% £171.67 Low 30% Low 20% Low 20% Porthmado High 30% High 30% High 30% g Mid 30% £65.88 Mid 25% £57.65 Mid 20% £49.41 Low 30% Low 20% Low 10% TOTAL (a) £930.35 (a) £824.18 (a) £723.65 INCOME (b) £988.30 (b) £880.50 (b) £776.00
(a) Includes initial estimate for Beddgelert and Rhyd Ddu (b) Includes estimate for Beddgelert once bus service and railway are in place and estimate for Rhyd Ddu after gateway has been completed in Waunfawr/Nantlle.
36 The estimates for car parking income in Beddgelert assume that one third of car park users spend in local shops and therefore receive free car parking. The estimates for car parking income in Capel Curig assume that half of all car park users spend in local shops, thereby receiving free car parking. It is possible to implement this scheme using a system of swipe cards/tokens. If a visitor spends the required amount of money in the local shops, the shop assistant would provide them with a token/card that would open the barrier on the car park, enabling them to leave the car park without paying. Without one of these tokens, the visitor would be required to pay the relevant car park charges on exit.
Given the charging structure shown in table 4.5 and occupancy rates shown in table 4.6, the total income from car parking within the National Park could be in the range £0.724 million to £0.930 million initially. This would be expected to rise to between £0.776 million and £0.988 million when the bus service and railway are in place in Beddgelert and the gateway has been completed in Waunfawr/Nantlle.
It is possible that some of the car parking income will have to be used to cover the National Park Authority’s ground rent charge. These will not affect the calculation of economic impact although they will have implications for amount of income available for re-investment in the provision of services.
To enforce the charging arrangements, it is proposed that four car park attendants would be employed, one at each of the inner gateways, with a further two National Park wardens employed to patrol the short term car parks. Based on costing of £78 per day used in the Northern Snowdonia Study Report, the car park attendants and wardens will cost £170,820 per annum. Based on the figure from the Northern Snowdonia Study, the maintenance and car park maintenance and management has been estimated at £20,000 per annum.
In addition to the revenue outlined above, it is possible that the new park and ride scheme could generate additional revenue through the following: a) The sale of concessionary tickets at accommodation in or near the core so that visitors staying there would be offered a discounted rate on bus tickets valid for the duration of their stay. It is proposed that in serviced accommodation such a ticket would cost £2 for a 3 day pass and £5 for a pass valid for a week. In unserviced accommodation, the pass would cost £2.50 for 3 days and £6 for a week. b) The sale of concessionary tickets for hotels in Caernarfon, Bangor and especially Llandudno and to coach operators for stops at Pen Y Pass etc. c) Concessions to any new facilities offered, especially at Bethesda but also related to proposed cycle route from Bangor through Bethesda to Ogwen, Capel Curig and Betws Y Coed. d) Any special arrangements with Welsh Mountain and Ffestiniog railways and with Virgin Trains and Conwy Line. e) A possible planning gain in Bethesda
37 Overall it is possible that these items together could generate additional revenue of £500,000. Therefore, including the direct income from the sale of park and ride tickets of £1.159 million, the £0.659 million generated from the sale of bus tickets to public transport visitors and a minimum of £0.723 million initial income from car parking, an initial estimate of the possible total revenue generated by the proposed park and ride scheme is around £3.041 million.
Technically, not all of this expenditure should be included in the assessment of the economic impact of the park and ride scheme as it should only include revenue that would not be received if the development scheme were not in operation i.e. only the additional income that is created by the scheme should be taken into account. Clearly, income is currently generated from the operation of the car parks listed in table 4.5 and from the sale of bus tickets to public transport visitors to the park. It is only the additional car park and bus ticket income that are generated as a result of the proposed scheme that has been included in the calculations of the economic impact.
Data from the Snowdonia National Park authority shows that in the financial year 1998/99 the income generated by the Betws Y Coed, Pen Y Pass, Beddgelert, Ogwen and Rhyd Ddu car parks amounted to £204,527. We do not currently have information on the income generated in the other car parks and therefore will assume that at the lower charges which are currently charged, they are generating half the revenue they would be making under the park and ride scheme based on the median occupancy rates. This suggests that the additional car parking income generated by the scheme, over and above the current income levels, could be between £311,832 and £518,541 initially rising to between £364,191 and £576,491 when the gateway has been built at Waunfawr/Nantlle.
In addition, visitors who visit the park by public transport are already purchasing tickets to travel to the park. Irrespective of the existence of the development scheme, these people will be paying to travel to the park by public transport and their expenditure on bus-only park and ride tickets is merely a substitution from whatever bus tickets they were buying before the existence of the park and ride scheme. For this reason the income from the bus-only tickets will be excluded from the calculation of the economic impacts.
To provide the most conservative estimate of the total impact of the revenue that could be generated by the development scheme, the lowest figure for potential car parking income will be used in the economic impact calculation. Therefore, the additional revenue that could be generated by the park and ride scheme, over and above the revenue which is currently earned, is £1.159 million from the sale of the park and ride tickets, £311,832 initial income from short term car parking and £500,000 for miscellaneous items such as the additional revenue from the sale of concessionary tickets in hotels, etc. Overall total revenue that could be attributed to the park and ride scheme would be in the region of £1.971 million.
In the Northern Snowdonia Report the annual costs for running the “park and ride” scheme are put at about £1.2m
38
Utilising the multipliers for Gwynedd and Conwy, the total impact on income and employment can then be calculated as shown in Table 4.7
Table 4.7: Total Impact on Income and Employment of a £1.971 million increase in revenue
Multiplier Direct Effects Direct & TOTAL Indirect IMPACT Increase in income £0.453 million £0.532 million £0.631 million
Increase in Employment 46 55 63
Therefore, we can see that if the park and ride scheme led to the generation of £1.971 million of additional income, through the multiplier process there would be an additional increase of £0.631 million in the local economy of Gwynedd and Conwy, which would take the total increase in income to £2.602 million. In addition 63 new full-time equivalent jobs would also be created in the local economy.
Once the gateway in Waunfawr/Nantlle has been completed, car park income in Rhyd Ddu would increase and the total additional income generated by the park and ride scheme could increase to £2.023 million. Then the total increase in income in the local economy (after the effects of the multiplier process have been accounted for) would be £2.67 million and the number of new jobs created would rise to 65.
4.4 Additional Visitor Expenditure
It is possible that the park and ride scheme could generate an additional increase in visitor expenditure over and above their increased expenditure on car parking and the park and ride facility. Each of the gateways offers an expanded range of facilities including visitor centres, cafes, gift shops and cycle hire shops. All of these facilities would encourage visitors to the National Park adnits surroundings to spend additional money which, through the multiplier effect would go on to generate additional income and employment in the local economy. i) Increase in Expenditure of Current Visitors
The Northern Snowdonia Study estimates that there are 9,982 bed spaces in the Inner Study area of the National Park. Using occupancy rates for North Wales for serviced accommodation, self catering and caravan and camping it is possible to calculate that there are around 1.37 million visitor nights in the inner study area, 681,000 in serviced accommodation, 606,000 in caravan/camping accommodation and a further 83,200 in self catering accommodation. Figures from the All Parks visitor survey estimate that there
39 are 1.6 million day visitors to the National Park and 4.3 million dya vists from holidaymakers staying either inside or outside the Park itself but in the study area. Making allowances for the proportion visiting the study area within the National Park and the likely underestimates of visitor numbers (see para 2.1 NSS report), the following estimates can be made.
Table 1.8 shows the potential increases in expenditure that would occur if, as a result of the new gateways, existing visitors increased their expenditure in the park by 5%, 10% and 20%.:
• a 5% increase in current visitor expenditure would generate additional expenditure of more than £2 million,
• a 10% increase in expenditure would generate additional spending of over £4 million
• a 20% increase will generate £8 million additional expenditure.
Table 4.8: Estimated Increases in Visitor Expenditure
Number of Average Increase Visitor Daily in Expenditure Days Spend 5% 10% 20% Day Visitors 1.6 million £6.80 £0.544m £1.088 £2.176m m
Holidaymakers 1.37 £12.80 £0.877m £1.754 £3.507m Staying in the Park million m
Holidaymakers 1.3 million £9.00 £0.585m £1.17m £2.34m Staying Outside the Park Total Increase £2.006m £4.012 £8.023m m
In addition, the All Parks Visitor Survey estimates that there are 2.9 million people who currently travel through the park, staying less than an hour and a half and not spending any money. It is possible that with the reclaiming the roadside scheme some of these 2.9 million will now be encouraged into short term car parks and/or to use the park and ride facilities. If, as a result of the park and ride scheme, 10% of these individuals now spend even just £2 on a cup of coffee/sandwich in a cafe at one of the park and ride facilities that would generate an increase in visitor expenditure of £580,000. ii) Increase in Visitor Numbers
40 The improvements that are likely to occur in the park as a result of the park and ride scheme and the increased publicity that it would generate could lead to an increase the number of visitors to the park. If these visitors are already visiting Gwynedd and Conwy and visit/stay in the park as an alternative to another venue in the area there would be no net benefit to the local economy, just a substitution of expenditure from outside the National Park to inside. However, if the park and ride scheme were to lead to an increase in visitors to the area who would not have otherwise visited anywhere else in Gwynedd or Conwy, their expenditure should be included in the impact analysis.
Using the average daily and overnight expenditures for the different category of visitors from table 6.1 of the All Parks Visitor Survey, Table 4.6 provides estimates of the possible increases in visitor expenditure that could occur as a result of a 2%, 5% and 10% increase in visitors who would not have visited Gwynedd or Conwy had the park and ride scheme not been in place.
In using the estimates of daily visitor expenditure from the All Parks Visitor Survey, we have been conservative in our calculation of the possible increased expenditure that could result from an increase in visitor numbers. The recent Sherpa Survey that has been carried out in the National Park estimates that daily expenditure for day visitors to the National Park with access to a car was £18.57, £28 for those on holiday staying in the park and £38.33 for those on holiday staying outside the park. However, given the fact that the survey was limited to 300 respondents and that it was heavily biased towards public transport users we do not feel that these figures are particularly robust. Consequently they have not been used extensively in this analysis, although they have been useful as a benchmark on the expenditure estimates.
Table 4.9: Increased Daily Expenditure resulting from an increase in visitor numbers (£ millions)
Visitor Daily 2% 5% 10% Days Spend increase increase Increas (include e s accomm ) Day Visitors 1.6 m £6.80 £0.218 £0.544 £1.088 Visitors staying in the park: 681,000 £38.30 £0.522 £1.304 £2.608 Serviced 689,200 £21.81 £0.301 £0.752 £1.503 accommodation Self catering /camping
Visitors staying outside 1.3 m £271 £0.702 £1.755 £3.51 the park
Total Increase in Daily £1.743 £4.355 £8.709 Expenditure m m m
41
Additional Park and Ride £0.181 £0.453 £0.905 Revenue m m m
Total Increase in £1.924 £4.808 £9.614 Expenditure m m m
1 From Tourism in North Wales 1997, WTB
In addition to their daily expenditure around the National Park, an increase in visitor numbers could result in more people using the park and ride scheme. The All Parks Visitor Survey estimates that visitors to the park are most likely to visit in groups of two. Therefore, using this information, and data on the distribution of visitors throughout the year, we are able to calculate the potential increase in the number of vehicles utilising the park and ride facilities and the additional income this could generate. If there is a 2% increase in visitor numbers, assuming that they all use the park and ride facility, park and ride revenue will increase by £181,056. If there is a 5% increase in visitor numbers, £452,641 additional park and ride expenditure would be generated annually and if there was a 10% increase in visitor numbers park and ride income could increase by £905,282.
Therefore the total increase in expenditure within the park resulting from a 2% increase in visitor numbers is £1.924 million, a 5% increase in visitor numbers could generate a £4.808 million increase in daily expenditure and expenditure on the park and ride scheme and a 10% increase in visitor numbers could lead to a £9.614 million increase in visitor expenditure.
Therefore, the total additional expenditure that could potentially be generated by the scheme is the sum of a possible increase in expenditure of current visitors, a reduction in non-spending visitors and any additional expenditure arising from an increase in visitor numbers. The different estimates for total additional expenditure generated are shown in Table 4.10.
Table 4.10 Potential Increases in Total Visitor Expenditure
5% increase in 10% increase in 20% increase in average spend average spend average spend 2% increase in £4.51m £6.516m £10.527m visitor numbers 5% increase in £7.394m £9.4m £13.411m visitor numbers 10% increase in £12.2m £14.206m £18.217m visitor numbers NOTE: All figures include £580,000 additional expenditure from current non- spending visitors to the park.
Depending on the resulting increase in visitor numbers and the level of increased expenditure of current visitors, total additional revenue from the park and ride scheme could range from £4.51 million up to £18.217 million.
42
Table 4.11 estimates the total impact on income and employment for different increases in expenditure levels.
Table 4.11: Total Impact on Income and Employment of Additional Visitor Expenditure
Multiplier Direct Direct & TOTAL Effects Indirect IMPACT Increase in income - (a) £1.263m £1.353m £1.578m - (b) £2.632m £2.82m £3.29m - (c) £5.101m £5.465m £6.376m
Increase in Employment - (a) 157 166 196 - (b) 327 347 409 - (c) 633 672 793
(a) assumes a 5% increase in current visitor spend, a 2% increase in total visitor numbers and 10% of non-spending visitors now spending £2. • Total Additional Expenditure = £4.51 million (b) assumes a 10% increase in current visitor spend, a 5% increase in total visitor numbers and 10% of non-spending visitors now spending £2. • Total Additional Expenditure = £9.4 million (c) assumes a 20% increase in current visitor spend, a 10% increase in total visitor numbers and 10% of non-spending visitors now spending £2. • Total Additional Expenditure = £18.217 million
A 5% increase in current visitor spend, 2% increase in total visitor numbers and 10% of non-spending visitors spending £2 would lead to a total increase in income of £6.088 million and generate 196 new full-time equivalent jobs.
A 10% increase in current visitor spending, 5% increase in total visitor numbers to the park and 10% of non-spending visitors now spending £2 would lead to a total increase in income in Gwynedd and Conwy of £12.69million and create 409 new full-time equivalent jobs.
A 20% increase in current visitor spending, 10% increase in total visitor numbers and 10% of non-spending visitors now spending £2 would lead to a total increase in income in the local economy of £24.593 million and lead to the creation of 793 new full-time equivalent jobs.
Therefore, the potential gains from any increase in visitor numbers and additional visitor expenditure are significant.
4.5 THE TOTAL IMPACT
43 The estimated total impact of the park and ride scheme can be seen in Table 4.12. These figures are based on the most conservative estimates of any revenue or additional visitor expenditure that could be generated as a result of the park and ride scheme.
Table 4.12: Total Impact of the Proposed Park and Ride Scheme
Income Employmen t
Capital Expenditure £3.707 million 107 Revenue Expenditure £2.602 million 63 Additional Visitor £6.088 million 259 Expenditure
It is proposed that the capital expenditure would take place over a three year period therefore the capital expenditure would generate a £3.707 million increase in income and 107 new jobs over a three year period. However, the figures for revenue expenditure and additional visitor revenue show the potential income and employment levels that could be generated annually once the scheme is fully operational. Therefore, the park and ride scheme has the potential to generate additional income of £8.690 million and sustain 259 jobs in the local economy per annum.
4.6 Some Remaining Caveats
While the above analysis has focused on the potential positive benefits of the park and ride scheme, it is also possible that there may be some negative impacts, particularly in the short term when the scheme is in its infancy and the operational arrangements may not all be fully in place. Any decrease in visitor numbers as a result of the park and ride scheme would lead to reductions in visitor expenditure similar to those outlined in table 1.9. Therefore, for example, if the park and ride scheme leads to a 2% reduction in visitor numbers the resulting decrease in visitor expenditure would be £1.743 million. When allowing for the knock-on effects this decrease in expenditure would have on the local economy, total income in Gwynedd and Conwy could decrease by £2.353 million and 76 jobs could potentially be lost.
Any future increase in usage of the park and ride facilities, could potentially lead to the project generating further increases in income and creating additional jobs. Growth in car traffic to the area for leisure purposes has been predicted, which would inevitably increase the usage of the park and ride scheme and increase the number of visitors to the park. This will in turn lead to additional increases in income and employment in the local economy.
44 The Northern Snowdonia Study estimates that based on traffic flow data for the period 1993-97, over the next five years traffic growth in the inner study area will grow by 6%. A 6% increase in usage of the park and ride facility would generate revenue of £69,540 and if the expenditure patterns of these additional visitors match those of current day visitors, additional visitor expenditure of £1.892million would be generated. Allowing for the secondary impacts of this expenditure on the local economy, it could potentially lead to an increase in income in Gwynedd and Conwy of £2.646 million and create an additional 84 jobs.
45
Chapter 5: Conclusion
This Report emphasises that the economic and social impact of the integrated development scheme will depend significantly on the exact location of each inter-modal gateway. Even more important will be the level of investment in terms of the variety of new facilities, services and experiences offered to the visitor at each gateway. Visits to the proposed sites confirmed that the effectiveness, acceptability and, consequently, the economic impact of the development scheme would ultimately depend on the quality of the experience at critical internal locations within the core area.
Therefore the proposal is not simply a traffic management or ‘park and ride’ scheme per se and to conceive of the scheme as a narrowly focused “improved parking exercise” would significantly underestimate the potential benefits of the scheme. The project should be conceived and planned as a “sustainable rural development scheme” integrating improved visitor experience, services and facilities.
The project concentrated on estimating the likely income flows from both capital and revenue expenditure in terms of an integrated development scheme. These expenditure flows were then combined with the Welsh Input- Output tables to analyse the total economic impact of the scheme under various scenarios in terms of jobs and incomes. The methodology for this analysis is set out in Annex 2 and the consequences for jobs and incomes were developed in detail in Chapter 4.
Because of expenditure and income leakages at the local level the approach taken in this study is to view the wider area around the Park as an economic, social and environmental continuum. Therefore the multiplier effects are based on a broad catchment area that includes the adjoining parts of Gwynedd and Conwy. This fits well with the overarching aims of the project which is focused on increasing the economic opportunities for the communities, both within the core area and in the inner and outer gateways.
It is proposed that the inner core area be defined as the mountain areas enclosed by Bethesda, Betws-y-Coed, Rhyd Ddu and Llanberis. The towns of Betws-y-Coed, Bethesda and Llanberis are suggested as inner gateways to the main mountain areas of Snowdonia.
In addition the research also highlighted the services and facilities that should be offered at each gateway to maximise the economic return from the capital investment and from the new ‘park and ride’ facility. e.g. each of the visitor centres must have on-line booking facilities for local accommodation and kiosks to allow visitors to browse and select their preferred activity. The analysis of the expenditure and income flows are based on the premis that these issues and the following wider components of the scheme are addressed:
46 • The inter-modal locations (gateways and internal transfer locations) offer high quality, convenient facilities and services to the visitor and easy transfer between modes.
• Each gateway has its own clear identifiable ‘character’ which builds on local natural and social history and existing facilities.
• The provisions allow for climatic variability with convenient and comfortable transfer areas. They must be more than “just car parks and bus stops”.
• The gateways are organised to maximise the economic benefits to the local communities and businesses by encouraging visitors to stay in the area and use all the resources of Snowdonia.
• Significant use is made of new IT facilities and equipment including real time video/film opportunities to help market the scheme and develop a quality branding for the product. Advance sign posting which is clear, highly visible and produced to a high design standard will help develop a quality brand.
Based on the assumption that an integrated package along the lines set out above will be implemented the Project then concentrated on estimating the data on visitor numbers and potential clientele for scheme. The results suggests that the annual “raw resource” is about 1 to 1.3 million visitor days, 0.6 to 0.7 million overnight visitors staying in the general area, staying an average of 5 days and some 2 million transiting visitors.
The next stage of the research involved an analysis of traffic flows to provide robust and accurate figures for the number of people moving through the area. Total one way inflows into the core in summer were estimated at 10,000 vehicles( largely cars) per day. For prudence a lower figure of 9000 cars per day was taken for further calculation. Within 5 years it was estimated that demand for extra long term parking at peak times could rise to 2000 places at the various gateways. The analysis was further developed by defining ‘high’, ‘mid’ and ‘low’ season demands in terms of related traffic and visitor flows. For example:
• High season: average daily inflow of 9,000 cars assuming15% diversion to park and ride at £5 per car.
• Mid season: average daily inflows of 7,000 cars assuming10% diversion to park and ride at £4 per car.
• Low season: average daily inflow of 3000cars assuming 5% diversion to park and ride at £3 per car.
47 After looking in detail at the facilities needed at each gateway area, including both inner and outer gateways, the likely expenditure flows have then been integrated into the Welsh Input-Output tables to analyse the total economic impacts across different sectors in terms of jobs and incomes.
The total estimated capital expenditure required to operationalise the proposed develop and to put in place the core facilities for the integrated park & ride scheme is £7.02 million. If additional gateways are developed and real time bus information, a system of signing the car parks to show when they are full and electronic visitor information kiosks at the gateways are all required then the estimated capital costs will increase to at least £8.97 million and probably more.
The Welsh Input-Output tables estimate that 40% of construction inputs are likely to be sourced outside Gywnedd and Conwy, and taking the specialised capital items into consideration, we have assumed that 60% of capital expenditure will be made outside of the local economy. Thus 60% of expenditure is classed as a leakage from the local economy and will not increase income or employment levels in the Gwynedd and Conwy. On this basis, the capital expenditure that would take place within Gwynedd & Conwy is around £2.808million.
Revenue from the park and ride element of the scheme is difficult to estimate and was undertaken in stages. Initial estimates in terms of direct income, bus tickets and parking based on existing visitor flows were:
• direct income from the sale of “park and ride” tickets of £1.159 million,
• £0.659 million generated from the sale of bus tickets to public transport visitors
• a minimum of £0.723 million initial income from car parking,
• items such as concessionary fares could together generate additional revenue of £0.5 million
• therefore total revenue generated by the park and ride element of the scheme is around £3.041 million.
When this figure is adjusted for the additional income generated by the scheme, over and above the current income levels, overall total additional revenue that could be attributed to the scheme would be in the region of £1.971 million. The multiplier process would generate an additional increase of £0.631 million in the local economy of Gwynedd and Conwy, which would take the total increase in income to £2.602 million. This would correspond to 63 new full-time equivalent jobs being created in the local economy.
The next stage was to estimate the increase in expenditure within the Park resulting from an increase in visitor numbers. A number of different scenarios were developed which can be summarised:
48
• a 2% increase in visitor numbers will generate an increase in visitor expenditure of £1.924 million, while a 10% increase in visitor numbers could lead to a increase of £9.614 million.
In summary it is proposed that the capital expenditure takes place over a three year period which would generate a £3.707 million increase in income and 107 new jobs over the three year period.
However, it must be emphasised that the figures for revenue expenditure and additional visitor revenue were developed from the basic assumption that the initial capital expenditure creates an exciting new visitor experience within the Park area alongside the ‘park and ride’ scheme.
This analysis shows that the potential income and employment levels that could be generated annually once the scheme is fully operational are significantly higher than if the scheme is interpreted more narrowly. Indeed, the integrated development scheme has the potential to generate an additional overall income of £8.690 million and sustain 259 jobs in the local economy per annum.
Therefore the proposal has the potential to have a significant impact on the local economy as long as it is NOT conceived a narrowly focused “park and ride exercise”. This would lead to a significant reduction in the potential benefits of the scheme. The project must be developed and planned from the outset as a “sustainable rural development scheme” integrating improved visitor experience, services and facilities in such a way as to maximise the economic development potential of the communities covered by the scheme.
49 Annex 1 Facilities and Car parks
A list of facilities to be found at each of the internal gateways.
These could be split into ‘essential’ and ‘additional’ services and ideally each of the gateways should evolve its own character and special features. It is crucial that the scheme plans for indifferent weather as well the glorious. It is equally important that the facilities are of a high quality, maximising the use of local material and that a major effort is made to improve on the quality of the human service experienced on each visit. A comparison with the Slate Valleys Initiative suggest that there is major synergy with their proposals.
Essential services:
• Location to sell tickets and site supervision with safe, camera protected, parking and quality picnic site. • Conventional Visitor Centre/Waiting Room area: this must be roomy and reasonably comfortable with easy covered access to the buses. • ICT services to give real-time information on the public transport in and around Snowdonia; real time information on availability of car parking within scheme area and a range of booking services for hotels, b/b, farmhouse and bunk house accommodation and visitor information. • Café/restaurant, rest room toilet facilities, safe storage facilities, short /local scenic walks. • Small children’s playground area. • Commercial outlets for crafts souvenirs and small convenience items.
Additional Services.
• Cycle hire and Horse Riding. • Small art gallery/ quality arts and crafts. • Visitor Interpretation Centres covering as appropriate subjects such as: • local wildlife, local history especially industrial history, geology and geomorphology of Snowdonia [impact of ice age on modern Snowdonia] and its importance in the history of science [names of geological ages Silurian Ordovician, Cambrian, Pre-Cambrian, • cultural and artistic history in relation to both Welsh [language] culture and contribution to Romantic movement (Wordsworth, Shelley, Turner etc), • history of mountaineering and early traveller Thomas Pennant etc. • Overnight camp sites, drying room showers, for tents and caravans • Access to water: boating in Llanberis, canoes in Betws, Bethesda • Motel • Real time video based ‘experience’ of weather and wild-life at various places in mountains especially weather on top of Snowdon- collaboration with RSPB and /or Wildlife trusts. • Ideally some services available in several European languages as well as Welsh and English.
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Long Stay Car Parks
Supervised long stay car parks are proposed at internal gateways : e.g. at Betws-y-Coed. The rear of the existing car park near the Station could be reserved for the schemeuse, with bus pick-up points at the Station, Anna Davies and Pont-y-Pair.
Internal parking within scheme, some suggestions:
Ogwen/Idwal [47] reduce to 30 cars, 8 minibuses and allow buses access to shelteres area. Some roadside space for timed coachs. Tryfan [40] 26 cars 6 minibuses, allow for adjacent lay by for coaches. Timing as Ogwen Capel Curig [34 cars/ others] unchanged, timing as Ogwen Cae’n y Coed [60] discuss with FE- special picnic area;all short/ mmedium stay, 3-4 h? Cunningham’s/Pont y pair should be all short stay at all times? Betws y Coed station area [370] in total; suggest re-plan lay out to allow 80 short stay all year round, 300 park and ride and what about 100 long stay “non ride” places?? Need to decide the rates for the short stay and non-ride park [£4 per day per car?] Pen y Pass [94] cut to 45 cars, 15 minibuses and room for coaches and for the bus stop and turning circle to allow bus to stop right outside the Café and maximise convenience and shelter,( and returns to café). Blaen y Nant ?? Nant Peris could be converted to “special climbers facility”; not in our view suitable as an over-flow for Llanberis as it is closer to Mountains and would cause confusion Llanberis [total over 800], need to allocate short stay, long stay both for park and ride and local stay only and parking for local people to shop. Snowdon view could be free 15- 20-min stay; similar facility required alongside Llynnau Gwynant, Mymbyr and Ogwen for people to stop for photographs. Nant Gwynant [70] allocate pro rata Ogwen. Bethesda add new facility with 200 spaces initially Llanrwst space for 250 to 300 cars possible for access to Geirionydd, Crafnant, Eigiau and Cowlyd and over spill for Betws.
Annex 2
The Economic Impact of the Snowdonia Park-and-Ride Scheme
51 Generating the Multipliers
The methodology used to derive the multipliers utilised in this project is based on original work by Leontief (1972) and detailed in Henderson “The Economic Impact of Tourism: A Case Study in Greater Tayside” (1975). Many further refinements to the methodology have taken place during the 1990s with the development of national Input-Output tables.
The starting point for the derivation of the multipliers for the Snowdonia project was the 1995 Welsh input-output tables produced by Cardiff Business School, (Brand, Hill and Roberts 1998). These contain 67 sector-based tables detailing the linkages between the different industrial sectors within the Welsh economy. They also provide information on imports to and exports from the Principality and provide an analysis of income related consumer expenditure.
Using employment data from the Annual Employment Survey these tables were regionalised for the area around Snowdonia and eventually were localised down to the Gwynedd and Conwy unitary authority boundaries using location quotients. The employment figures used are expressed as full-time equivalents and include both employees in employment and an estimate for self-employment based on data from the Annual Employment Survey, the Labour Force survey and the 1991 Census of Population. Unfortunately the Annual Employment Survey does not provide information on self employment in agriculture. The Welsh Office publication ‘Welsh Agricultural Statistics’ only provides a figure for agricultural employment in North West Wales which covers Anglesey, Gwynedd and part of Conwy (the rest of Conwy is within the North East Wales figure). Therefore an estimate was made of agricultural employment based on the limited information available in Welsh Agricultural Statistics and data on agricultural employment from the 1991 Census of Population.
Once an input-output table for Gwynedd and Conwy had been produced, manipulation of the table enabled us to derive multipliers to examine the effect of the proposed scheme on both income and employment. These impacts can be split into ‘direct’, ‘indirect’ and ‘induced’ impacts as follows:
1. The initial expenditure generated by the park-and-ride scheme, both the capital expenditure and the additional visitor expenditure generated by the scheme, will directly provide income and employment for local firms. This is the ‘direct impact’ of the scheme.
2. The businesses who receive this expenditure will themselves in turn create additional income and employment in the local economy through their purchases of goods and services from suppliers and wage payments to their employees. In turn, their suppliers will then purchase goods and services from their own suppliers and pay wages to their own employees. In this way the effects of the initial expenditure will filter down through the economy. This second round of income and employment generation is referred to as the ‘indirect effect’.
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3. Finally, as the wages, both directly and indirectly generated, are spent by the residents of the region, some proportion of this expenditure will be made in local businesses which will in turn generate an additional increase in income and employment. This is termed the ‘induced impact’.
The direct, indirect and induced impacts together will give an estimate of the total impact of the park and ride scheme on the local economy of Gwynedd and Conwy.
It must be remembered that not all expenditure resulting from the Snowdonia park-and-ride scheme will remain within the local economy, a proportion of it will be used to purchase goods and services from outside the region. These are classed as leakages from the local economy as the benefits of this expenditure will accrue to the region in which the money is spent and not to the Gwynedd or Conwy area. The evidence on leakages emphasises the importance of using local labour and local raw materials wherever possible. Local sourcing will help minimise the leakages from the local economy and maxmise the benefits, in terms of both income and employment, from the project.
In regionalising the All-Wales tables down to Gwynedd and Conwy we are implicitly assuming that the sub region has the same demand and consumption patterns as the whole of Wales. (We initially derived individual tables for Gwynedd and Conwy to test for the similarities between the two areas.) We are also assuming that maximum regional trade takes places within Gwynedd and Conwy which is likely to be an over-estimate. Therefore the scale of the income and employment effects are likely to be upper estimates of the true impacts and they highlight the maximum gains that are possible. Clearly the more labour and raw materials that are sourced locally for the project, the greater the impacts on the local economy and the closer the true impacts will be to our estimates.
In order to provide a range of estimates of the impact of the park-and-ride scheme, three different types of location quotients1 were used to regionalise the all Wales input-output tables – a simple location quotient, a cross-industry location quotient and a purchases only location quotient. Both the purchases only location quotient and the cross industry location quotient are modifications of the simple location quotient. The former take account of different purchasing patterns across the same industry between the regional and the national economy, and the latter take account of the relative importance of the selling industry as well as the purchasing industry to the region. The simple location quotient and the purchases only location quotient produced very similar input-output tables for Gwynedd & Conwy (the two tables were statistically equivalent). Therefore it was only possible to
1 Location quotients show the relative importance of a particular industry to a region compared with the importance of that industry to the national economy. The simple location quotient is defined as: r r LQi = Xi /X n n Xi /X where i refers to a particular industry, X to employment, n to the nation and r to the region.
53 generate two separate input-output tables, and consequently two different sets of income and employment multipliers (referred to below as A and B multipliers).
Not all income paid to households is available to them as expenditure - a proportion will be taken out in the form of income taxes and National Insurance contributions. These payments can be seen as leakages from the local economy and to take account of this, the income multipliers derived for this study use disposable income. The Gwynedd & Conwy disposable income and employment multipliers that will be used to estimate the impact of the park-and-ride scheme are shown in tables A1 and A2.
Table A1: Disposable Income Multipliers for Conwy and Gwynedd.
Industrial Type of Direct Impact Direct & Direct, Indirect & Sector Multiplie Indirect Induced Impact r Impact (Total Impact) Construction A 0.22 0.29 0.34 B 0.22 0.28 0.32 Retail A 0.35 0.40 0.50 B 0.35 0.38 0.47 Hotels/Caterin A 0.28 0.32 0.38 g B 0.28 0.30 0.35 Transport A 0.23 0.28 0.33 B 0.23 0.27 0.32 Recreation A 0.28 0.45 0.55 B 0.28 0.44 0.52
NOTE: Type A multipliers are those derived from the simple location quotient input-output tables, the type B multipliers are those derived from the cross- industry location quotient input-output tables.
These multipliers show the total disposable income that will be generated in Gwynedd and Conwy from a £1 injection into the local economy. So for example, using the type A multiplier, if there is a £1 million increase in expenditure in retail businesses in Gwynedd, this will lead to a direct increase in disposable income of £350,000 in the local economy. Once the initial increase in expenditure has filtered down through the economy and the indirect effects have been accounted for, disposable income in Gwynedd & Conwy will have increased by £400,000. Finally, the induced effects of an increase in consumers expenditure will create an additional £100,000 of disposable income in the local economy bringing the total increase in disposable income in Gwynedd & Conwy, from an initial £1 million increase in expenditure in retail businesses, to £500,000.
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Table A2: Employment Multipliers for Gwynedd & Conwy
Industrial Type of Direct Direct & Direct, Indirect & Sector Multiplier Impact Indirect Induced Impact Impact (Total Impact) Construction A 26.75 34.84 40.44 B 26.75 33.46 38.28 Retail A 40.54 46.51 57.80 B 40.54 44.86 54.75 Hotels/Caterin A 34.75 39.40 47.22 g B 34.75 36.89 43.53 Transport A 23.59 28.11 33.05 B 23.59 27.79 32.16 Recreation A 30.52 48.48 58.60 B 30.52 46.98 55.83
NOTE: Type A multipliers are those derived from the simple location quotient input-output tables, the type B multipliers are those derived from the cross- industry location quotient input-output tables.
The employment multipliers show the increase in employment that will result from a £1 million injection into the local economy. For example using the type A multiplier, a £1 million increase in expenditure in hotels in Gwynedd & Conwy will lead to an additional 47 jobs created in the local economy. Similarly using the type B multiplier, a £1 million increase in construction activity in Gwynedd & Conwy will create 38 additional jobs in the local area.
By applying these multipliers to the total expenditure generated by the park- and ride scheme, both capital expenditure and visitor expenditure, it will be possible to estimate the total economic impact of the scheme on Snowdonia and the surrounding areas in Gwynedd and Conwy.
Following further analysis of the multipliers derived from the tables using different location quotients it was decided to use the cross industry multipliers – type B multipliers – in the main impact assessment exercise. The differences between type A and type B multipliers, both in terms of jobs and final expenditure were marginal, and the cross industry multipliers – type B - appeared more robust to the regionalisation techniques. COMBINED DISPOSABLE INCOME MULTIPLIERS FOR GWYNEDD and CONWY: TYPE B
SECTOR Direct Impact Direct Direct, Indirect & Indirect & Induced Agriculture 0.2070 0.2428 0.2750 Energy & Water 0.1245 0.1432 0.1558 Manufacturing 0.1233 0.1459 0.1593
55 Construction 0.2234 0.2794 0.3196 Distribution 0.2407 0.2846 0.3302 Wholesale 0.2190 0.2611 0.3015 Retail 0.3472 0.3842 0.4689 Hotels & Catering 0.2814 0.2987 0.3525 Rail/Road 0.2332 0.2746 0.3179 Other Transport 0.1668 0.2033 0.2279 Post & Telecomms 0.2234 0.2496 0.2896 Banking & Insurance 0.1854 0.2212 0.2516 Real Estate 0.2016 0.2206 0.2509 Business Services 0.3037 0.3653 0.4377 Public Administration 0.3759 0.4398 0.5566 Recreation & Welfare 0.2847 0.4382 0.5207 Other Services 0.0734 0.0809 0.0855
COMBINED EMPLOYMENT MULTIPLIERS FOR GWYNEDD and CONWY: TYPE B
SECTOR Direct Impact Direct Direct, Indirect & Indirect & Induced Agriculture 26.84 31.48 35.65 Energy & Water 3.54 3.71 3.88 Manufacturing 11.30 13.37 14.61 Construction 26.75 33.46 38.28 Distribution 25.91 30.64 35.55 Wholesale 17.22 20.54 23.72 Retail 40.54 44.86 54.75 Hotels & Catering 34.75 36.89 43.53 Rail/Road 23.59 27.79 32.16 Other Transport 14.71 17.92 20.09 Post & Telecoms 11.98 13.38 15.53 Banking & Insurance 14.58 17.39 19.79 Real Estate 20.74 22.69 25.81 Business Services 32.22 38.76 46.44 Public Admin 23.31 27.27 34.52 Recreation & Welfare 30.52 46.98 55.83 Other Services 9.79 10.80 11.41
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DISPOSABLE INCOME MULTIPLIERS FOR GWYNEDD
SECTOR Direct Impact Direct Direct, Indirect & Indirect & Induced Agriculture 0.207 0.248 0.280 Energy & Water 0.066 0.069 0.073 Manufacturing 0.132 0.152 0.167 Construction 0.223 0.278 0.317 Distribution 0.241 0.290 0.336 Wholesale 0.219 0.253 0.292 Retail 0.347 0.384 0.468 HOtels & Catering 0.281 0.299 0.352 Rail/Road 0.235 0.280 0.324 Other Transport 0.169 0.201 0.225 Post & Telecomms 0.292 0.322 0.387 Banking & Insurance 0.202 0.230 0.264 Real Estate 0.229 0.260 0.301 Business Services 0.303 0.361 0.432 Public Administration 0.374 0.434 0.549 Recreation & Welfare 0.285 0.439 0.520 Other Services 0.068 0.074 0.078
DISPOSABLE INCOME MULTIPLIERS FOR CONWY
SECTOR Direct Impact Direct Direct, Indirect & Indirect & Induced Agriculture 0.207 0.248 0.278 Energy & Water 0.088 0.097 0.103 Manufacturing 0.108 0.125 0.135 Construction 0.223 0.276 0.313 Distribution 0.241 0.277 0.318 Wholesale 0.219 0.263 0.301 Retail 0.347 0.381 0.459 Hotels & Catering 0.281 0.297 0.346 Rail/Road 0.231 0.266 0.304 Other Transport 0.163 0.199 0.221 Post & Telecoms 0.271 0.299 0.352 Banking & Insurance 0.173 0.208 0.233 Real Estate 0.228 0.263 0.301 Business Services 0.304 0.365 0.431 Public Admin 0.379 0.442 0.552 Recreation & Welfare 0.285 0.434 0.510 Other Services 0.078 0.087 0.091
EMPLOYMENT MULTIPLIERS FOR GWYNEDD
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SECTOR Direct Impact Direct Direct, Indirect & Indirect & Induced Agriculture 26.85 32.14 36.37 Energy & Water 4.54 4.75 4.98 Manufacturing 12.07 13.90 15.24 Construction 26.75 33.24 37.98 Distribution 25.90 31.17 36.14 Wholesale 17.22 19.93 23.00 Retail 40.54 44.83 54.64 HOtels & Catering 34.76 36.92 43.50 Rail/Road 23.60 28.08 32.51 Other Transport 14.99 17.83 19.99 Post & Telecomms 20.81 22.94 27.58 Banking & Insurance 16.40 18.71 21.44 Real Estate 21.67 24.56 28.41 Business Services 32.57 38.75 46.40 Public Administration 23.14 26.88 33.95 Recreation & Welfare 30.52 47.01 55.79 Other Services 9.16 9.90 10.41
EMPLOYMENT MULTIPLIERS FOR CONWY
SECTOR Direct Impact Direct Direct, Indirect & Indirect & Induced Agriculture 26.84 32.13 36.09 Energy & Water 8.82 9.77 10.38 Manufacturing 9.91 11.53 12.40 Construction 26.75 33.08 37.46 Distribution 25.92 29.85 34.26 Wholesale 17.23 20.72 23.67 Retail 40.55 44.52 53.59 Hotels & Catering 34.76 36.69 42.78 Rail/Road 23.58 27.07 30.98 Other Transport 14.23 17.41 19.31 Post & Telecoms 18.07 19.92 23.41 Banking & Insurance 13.23 15.90 17.79 Real Estate 21.66 25.00 28.59 Business Services 31.82 38.18 45.13 Public Admin 23.60 27.53 34.32 Recreation & Welfare 30.53 46.56 54.63 Other Services 10.36 11.47 12.09
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