V23, N23 Thursday, Feb. 1, 2018 Braun shows momentum with $2.3M The January straw poll at the Businessman posts $2m, Congress of Counties was a Messer posts $430k for tiny blip compared to what the campaigns were able to quarter, Rokita didn’t raise in 2017, how they spent their money, and what kind release his numbers of cash on hand they possess as they head into the home- By BRIAN A. HOWEY stretch three months. INDIANAPOLIS – If you were Mind you, Rokita and to have any doubts about whether the Messer come from Congress, Indiana Republican U.S. Senate primary which on Wednesday had a is a two- or three-way affair, let’s use 9% job approval in the latest this week as an example. Economist/YouGov Poll, with Howey Politics Indiana was in 74% disapproving. Braun touch with the three major campaigns spent three years in the – U.S. Reps. Indiana General Assembly, Todd Rokita and which normally polls well Luke Messer, and north of 50% in approval. In former legisla- the Public Opinion Strategies tor Mike Braun. Poll for the Indiana Realtors Would they have last December, the national their year-end FEC reports available by right/wrong track stood at Wednesday? The response from the 36-57%, while in Indiana it campaigns of all three was affirmative. This particular money report Mike Braun is the Senate candidate who appears to be Continued on page 3 is an important milestone in this race. showing momentum. (HPI Photo by Mark Curry) Trump’s good fellas optics By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS -– Hoosier Democrats can brood and stew all they want about the demise of the hate crimes bill in the General Assembly or the shelving of an independent redistricting commission. But the 2018 mid- term election is going to be “My wife Kathryn and I were about one main thing: President traveling to the annual House Re- Donald J. Trump. There may be some other publican retreat when our train topical issues that will surface, but this will be a referendum collided with a truck. We are OK. election. On the face of it, the We went to the scene and did conventional wisdom is that Democrats have been dealt a what we could to help the pretty good hand, further evi- injured.” denced by U.S. Rep. Trey Gowdy becoming the ninth House chair - U.S. Rep. Larry Bucshon on to announce he won’t seek re- the train/truck crash Page 2 election. So much so that there is talk popularity. I saw an African-American about a blue wave, or a pink wave. family seated near First Lady Melania, Predicting a wave had been a fairly overcome with emotion as they were reliable thing in the past. Howey Poli- honored. There were military chief tics began publishing with the 1994 petty officers praised, a cop and his Republican wave. Since then, we’ve wife who adopted the son of a heroin forecast correctly several others: addict lauded. And the motherlode, Democrats in 2006 when they picked the North Korean defector who sur- up three congressional seats here, vived a dash through a bullet-riddled and the Republican/Tea Party wave of DMZ to freedom. As the House cham- Howey Politics Indiana 2010 that provided their super major- ber erupted, he waved his crutches. WWHowey Media, LLC 405 ity foundation. “Well I’ll be damned,” I Massachusetts Ave., Suite And then there was 2016, thought. Deaver would be proud. 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 where we sensed a Democratic wave About 45 minutes in, I turned developing in June, only to have it on the volume of the speech that www.howeypolitics.com break the other way for Donald Trump would last 75 minutes. What I saw in November. It was akin to Lt. Col. was Donald J. Trump, reality TV Brian A. Howey, Publisher Billy Kilgore in “Apocalypse Now,” president, holding court. He was in Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington where we goaded California surfing his zone as Vice President Pence and Jack E. Howey, Editor legend Lance B. Johnson to surf in a Speaker Ryan looked on approvingly. Viet Cong-infested coastline because This was reality TV. The sphinx-like Mary Lou Howey, Editor the waves split in Mark Curry, photography two directions. “It’s unbelievable, it’s just Subscriptions tube city,” Lance says, while glancing at the HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 tree line for Viet Cong HPI Weekly, $350 snipers. Kilgore snaps, Ray Volpe, Account Manager “Charlie don’t surf!” 317.602.3620 But in 2016, email: [email protected] “Charlie” – i.e. Donald Trump – was surfing both waves. He could Contact HPI insult ethnic groups, [email protected] threaten to shoot someone on Fifthth Avenue, target Melania was there in a white suit. Rep. Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 Gold Star mothers and POW legends, Nancy Pelosi looked distraught when Washington: 202.256.5822 then surf to the greatest upset in the president called for Washington Business Office: 317.602.3620 American presidential history. “to set aside our differences, to seek So on Tuesday night, I bor- out common ground and to summon © 2018, Howey Politics rowed a page from President Reagan’s the unity we need to deliver for the “fellas,” in this case the triumverate people.” Indiana. All rights reserved. of James Baker, Edwin Meese and Sen. Chuck Schumer looked Photocopying, Internet forward- Michael Deaver, the latter who knew like a card shark sizing up “Doc” ing, faxing or reproducing in that optics could more profoundly across the poker table. These optics any form, whole or part, is a impact voters than words. There’s the were sensational for Trump, and bad violation of federal law without legendary example of a bad news day for Democrats. Even U.S. Rep. Joe on CBS news for the Gipper at the lips Kennedy, who delivered a decent re- permission from the publisher. of chief tormenter Dan Rather. But the buttal in front of a muscle car, seemed volume was turned down, and Deaver to be weirdly frothing from the mouth. delighted in the images. And there were four more rebuttals. I watched the first half of So much for Democratic unity. President Trump’s first State of the Jimmy Kimmel would inter- Union with the volume mute, and Tom view porn starlet Stormy Daniels later Waits playing on my Pandora. This is a in the evening, but this was a tiny president with a 35% approval rating little subplot that drew scant atten- addressing a Congress with about 9% tion on Wednesday’s morning shows. Page 3 Stormy had released a state- viewmirror. So he discarded the steel ment denying Donald Trump wool he had been using to scour every had ever had sex with that American bruise, nick, cut and lacera- woman. A friend tweeted, tion for a year, and preached “unity.” “Never trust a porn star.” The reality president still preached Earlier in the day, divisive immigration policy and issued Gallup put out new Trump ap- ominous rhetoric on North Korea, and prove/disapprove numbers in at one point intoned, “Americans are all 50 states, and here in “Im- dreamers, too.” That played well across portantville,” Trump stood at Hoosier Trump country. 44/51%. Bad numbers here Republican pollster in Indiana. But watching the Frank Luntz, a frequent Trump critic, optics and knowing Hoosiers observed: “This speech represents the so well, Trump wouldn’t play presidential performance that Trump well in Hammond, Gary and observers have been waiting for – bril- South Bend, and large parts liant mix of numbers and stories, of downtown Indy below the humility and aggressiveness, traditional 22nd floor GOP headquarters. conservatism and political populism.” But in “outer Indiana,” in New York Times columnist Frank Bruni Connersville, Seymour, War- warned that somewhere between the saw, Monon and Versailles, wolf in Grandma’s frock, Pinochio and the base was lapping up the the AT&T sales guy, “Our president optics. He’s tellin’ it like it is. lives in a world of sand and wind and He’s draining the swamp and make-believe, where the merest gust sticking up for the little guy. can alter the shape of everything, and A year and a half Tuesday night’s remarks – especially earlier, Trump declared in his appeal for ‘common ground’ and Cleveland that “I alone” can his vision of ‘all of us together’ as ‘one stop crime. In his inaugu- American family’ – should be seen in ral address a year ago, he that shifting, swirling, fantastical con- described “American car- text.” nage” in an address widely Yes, the words still lie, but described as “destopian.” the optics deceive. If you’re a Demo- On Tuesday, after 11 school shootings across the U.S. in crat, Tuesday’s optics weirdly glistened. There was little January, President Trump was cunning enough to realize unity. There may be a wave, but we don’t know which way that the audience was bigger than his 35% base. The Las it will break, and whether Charlie will be surfing or shoot- Vegas and Texas church massacres were far off in the rear ing. v fourth quarter. Most of that came from the candidate, said Senate race, from page 1 to be worth about $50 mil- lion in personal assets. Braun was 59-34%. raised about $250,000 from Things get done in the Indiana individual donors. General Assembly. Congress is inert. “We think that Mike has Rokita, Messer and their colleagues talked absolutely made this a three- a big game about repealing Obamacare, person tossup and race and but didn’t have the mojo to see it through has a great amount of mo- and the health care system is in disarray mentum coming into 2018 while many of us are seeing premiums as outsider candidate,” said skyrocket.