Maine Confronting in the U.S. Northeast

rom towering Mount Katahdin to the unavoidable changes that past emissions have sandy beaches of York, the climate of already set in motion. Maine is changing. Records show that is arriving earlier, are Maine’s Changing Climate growing hotter, and are be- . Average across the coming warmer and less snowy. These Northeast have risen more than 1.5 degrees Fchanges are consistent with global warming, an Fahrenheit (°F) since 1970, with winters warm- increasingly urgent phenomenon driven by ing most rapidly—4°F between 1970 and 2000. heat-trapping emissions from human activities. If higher emissions prevail, seasonal average New state-of-the-art research shows that if temperatures across Maine are projected to rise global warming emissions continue to grow 10°F to 13°F above historic levels in and unabated, Maine can expect dramatic changes 7°F to 13°F in by late-century, while in climate over the course of this century, with lower emissions would cause roughly half this substantial impacts on vital aspects of the warming. state’s economy and character. If the rate of emissions is lowered, however, projections and winter . The Northeast show that many of the changes will be far less is projected to see an increase in winter dramatic. Emissions choices we make today—in precipitation on the order of 20 to 30 percent. Maine, the Northeast, and worldwide—will Slightly greater increases are projected under help determine the climate our children and the higher-emissions scenario, which would grandchildren inherit, and shape the conse- also feature less winter precipitation falling as quences for their economy, environment, and snow and more as . quality of . Snow is nearly synonymous with winter in The research summarized here describes Maine and an integral part of many favorite win- how climate change may affect Maine and ter activities and traditions. If higher emissions other Northeast states under Maine two different emissions sce- 1961–1990 Migrating State narios. The higher-emissions 2010–2039 Climate scenario assumes continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels, 2010–2039 Changes in average sum- mer —a measure causing heat-trapping emis- of how hot it actually feels, sions to rise rapidly over the 2040–2069 2040–2069 2070–2090 given temperature and course of the century. The lower- —could strongly 2070–2090 emissions scenario assumes a affect Mainers’ quality of shift away from fossil fuels in life in the future. Red arrows favor of clean technolo- track what summers could gies, causing emissions to de- feel like over the course cline by mid-century. of the century under the The research also explores higher-emissions scenario; actions that individual house- yellow arrows track what holds, businesses, and govern- summers in the state could feel like under the lower- ments in the Northeast can Higher-Emissions Scenario emissions scenario. take today to reduce emissions Lower-Emissions Scenario to levels consistent with stay- ing below the lower-emissions scenario, and to adapt to the

Photos: (from top) iStockphoto.com/Andy Thorington; Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife; iStockphoto.com/Greg Nicholas; Captains of Industry; iStockphoto.com/Ben Thomas  co n f r o n t i n g c l i m at e c hange in the u.S. N o r t h e a s t • m a i n e

prevail, much of Maine—historically snow-covered for most of the winter— would see its snow shrink by roughly half by late-century. Under the lower-emissions scenario, however, the state is expected to retain a substantial snow season—between two and four weeks of snow cover per winter month. Heavy, damaging rainfall events have already increased measurably across the Northeast in recent decades. Intense spring struck the region in both 2006 and 2007, for example, caus- ing widespread flooding. The frequen- cy and severity of heavy rainfall events is expected to rise further under either emissions scenario.

Drought and stream flow. In this his- torically -rich state, rising summer temperatures coupled with little change Bukaty AP Photo/Robert F. in summer rainfall are projected to in- A decline in spruce/fir would greatly exacerbate existing stresses on Maine’s crease the frequency of short-term economically important pulp and paper industry. (one- to three-month) and de- crease summer stream flow, particular- therefore be conservative. However, sions scenarios, with the steepest losses ly if higher emissions prevail. By late- even under these projections, Maine’s under the higher-emissions scenario. century, for example, short-term droughts coast faces substantial increases in the Losses in spruce/fir forests will even- are projected to occur annually under extent and frequency of coastal flood- tually affect the species de- the higher-emissions scenario (com- ing, , and property damage. pendent on them, such as the pared with once every two to three lynx, snowshoe hare, and Bicknell’s years, on average, historically), while Impacts on Forests thrush. Under the lower-emissions summertime conditions of low stream Forests cover 90 percent of Maine, pro- scenario, patches of the high-elevation flow (detrimental to native fish such as viding timber and firewood, and spruce/fir required by the Bick- the Atlantic salmon) are projected to last wildlife habitat, and for hiking, nell’s thrush could persist in the moun- an additional month, increasing stress snowmobiling, snowshoeing, fishing, tains of Maine, but under the higher- on both natural and managed ecosys- and birding. In addition, the in- emissions scenario this bird’s distinctive tems. By contrast, little change in either dustry provides the state with more song could eventually be muted across or stream flow is expected un- than 19,000 jobs. the entire region as its suitable habitat der the lower-emissions scenario. As temperatures climb, the charac- gradually disappears. ter of Maine’s forests is expected to Warm winters interfere with tradi- -level rise. Global warming affects change—particularly its spruce/fir for- tional timber harvesting practices in sea levels by causing water to ex- ests, which are vital to the state’s nearly the region, which rely on frozen pand as it warms, and by melting - $1.4 billion pulp and paper industry conditions to minimize damage caused based . Under the higher-emissions and treasured for their scenic and rec- by heavy equipment. With projected scenario, global sea level is projected to reational value. Spruce and fir species winter warming, the trend toward an rise between 10 inches and two feet by provide 50 percent of all sawlogs (used earlier or intermittent “ season” is the end of the century (7 to 14 inches for lumber) and 20 percent of all pulp- expected to continue. under the lower-emissions scenario). wood (used for paper production) har- Long-lived may persist for These projections do not account for vested in Maine. some even as the climate becomes the recent observed melting of the Climate conditions suitable for unsuitable for them; however, they may ’s major ice sheets—nor the poten- these forests are expected to decline in also become more vulnerable to com- tial for accelerated melting—and may Maine by late-century under both emis- petition from better-suited species and  co n f r o n t i n g c l i m at e c hange in the u.S. N o r t h e a s t • m a i n e other stresses such as pests and dis- expected to shorten the average ski Marine Impacts ease. Maine’s hemlock trees (which season, increase snowmaking require- A regional icon, Maine’s coastal fish- shade streams, providing cool condi- ments, and drive up operating costs ing villages contribute $393 million to tions required by native brook trout in an industry that has already con- the state economy each year. Com- and other fish) face both shrinking suit- tracted in recent years. Under the mercial fish and shellfish, including able habitat and the northward march higher-emissions scenario, western cod and lobster, have water-tempera- of the hemlock woolly adelgid, an inva- Maine is projected to be the only area ture thresholds that define the condi- sive insect that has already destroyed in the entire Northeast able to support tions required for their survival, growth, hemlock stands from Georgia to Con- viable ski operations by late-century. and reproduction. By increasing the necticut. With warmer winters project- However, in order to stay open, resorts region’s water temperatures, global ed under the higher-emissions scenario, in this area would require substantial warming is expected to bring more the adelgid is poised to infest hemlocks increases in snowmaking capacity and, changes to a sector that has already as far north as the Canadian border by therefore, operating costs. been transformed over the past several late-century, but would be prevented decades. from spreading into northern Maine ice. Ice fishing and pond hockey this century under the lower-emissions are winter favorites in Maine. However, Lobster. In 2005 Mainers landed 70 mil- scenario. global warming will render lake ice lion pounds of lobster—more than half cover increasingly thin and shorten its of the annual U.S. catch. As the Gulf Impacts on Winter duration; ice cover duration on Sebago of Maine warms this century, deeper Recreation Lake has already declined by two weeks and coastal areas of Downeast The Pine State has a long-estab- over the past several decades. Com- Maine may become increasingly suit- lished reputation as a winter getaway. bined with fewer opportunities for sled- able for lobster habitation. However, But Maine winters have already changed ding, snowshoeing, and other favorite these waters may also become more and, over the course of the century, outdoor activities, winter recreation as hospitable to diseases such as lobster- may look and feel profoundly different. it is now known in Maine is at great risk. shell disease, which is now observed

Snowmobiling. Maine is part of a six- state network of snowmobile trails totaling 40,500 miles and contribut- ing $3 billion a year to the regional economy. Snowmobiling, like cross- country skiing and snowshoeing, relies almost entirely on natural snowfall because of the impracticality of snow- making on such a vast system of trails. This fact, combined with projected losses in natural snow cover, means that Maine’s snowmobiling season could be cut substantially by mid- century. Under the higher-emissions scenario the average season length across Maine is projected to shrink to roughly 30 days by late-century—a nearly 70 percent decline below recent levels—and to roughly 50 days under the lower-emissions scenario (a 40 per- cent decline). AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty AP Photo/Robert F. From skiing and snowboarding to snowmobiling, ice fishing, and sledding, many Skiing. Maine’s 17 ski areas contrib- residents of Maine embrace winter recreation. But the state’s winters are warming. ute $300 million a year to the state’s Over the course of this century more winter precipitation is projected to fall as rain, economy, providing recreation for and snow and lake ice are expected to melt more quickly, reducing opportunities Mainers and visitors. Milder winters are for popular winter activities.  co n f r o n t i n g c l i m at e c hange in the u.S. N o r t h e a s t • m a i n e

only at low levels in Maine waters but ducers in the coming decades; for ex- the higher-emissions scenario by late has damaged the fishery farther south. ample, increases in the frequency of this century. Under the lower-emissions short-term drought (see p.2) could ne- scenario such days could increase by half. Cod. Maine’s cod landings, valued at cessitate increased irrigation (e.g., of the Higher temperatures and increasing $3 million in 2005, continue to derive blueberry barrens) and operational costs, levels of plant-stimulating carbon diox- mostly from the Gulf of Maine and while a longer growing season could ide (CO2) in the air are also expected to neighboring Georges Bank. The Gulf benefit farmers seeking to invest in accelerate seasonal pollen production of Maine is projected to continue to warmer- crops that are current- in over the next several decades support adult cod under either sce- ly hard to grow in Maine. nario but, as temperatures rise, these waters are expected to become too Crops. Maine’s fruit and warm to support the growth and sur- vegetable crops generate vival of young cod later this century—a approximately $160 mil- critical factor in the long-term viability lion annually. The state of this fishery. This change would likely produces more wild blue- occur more rapidly under the higher- berries than any other emissions scenario. place in the world and ranks sixth in the nation Impacts on Coastal for potato production. In- Communities creasing summer temper- From Kittery to Quoddy Head, climate atures and heat stress change threatens the extensive Maine could depress the yields coast and its communities. Rising sea of economically impor- levels caused by global warming are tant crops, including cer- projected to increase the frequency tain apple varieties and and severity of surges and coast- potatoes, by late-century al flooding. Favorite beaches and pop- under the higher-emis- ular tourist destinations, such as Old sions scenario. Northward Ting Li Wang/The New York /Redux York New Wang/The Li Ting Beach, could experience in- expansion of agricultural Maine’s landings of American lobster, the state’s highest-value creased beach erosion and flood-related pests and weeds could commercial catch, were valued at more than $300 million in property damage this century. The further impede crop pro- 2005. The industry also supported more than 7,000 commercial state’s coastal wetlands (which provide duction during the course harvesters in Maine in 2006. As waters warm and lobster ranges critical nursery habitat for commercial of the century and pres- shift, lobstermen will need to adapt to the changes and fish and important stopover sites for sure farmers to increase manage the remaining stocks in a sustainable manner. migratory and other birds) would be at their herbicide and pesti- great risk of permanent inundation as cide use. Under the lower-emissions under the higher-emissions scenario. sea levels rise. scenario most of these impacts are ex- This could extend the allergy season, Maine is currently the only state in pected to be relatively minor. increase asthma risks, and exacerbate the nation that has implemented shore- symptoms for asthma sufferers. line regulations that take potential sea- Impacts on Human Health level rise into account. Further strength- Air quality. Air quality is a serious con- Vector-borne disease. Mosquitoes and ening and adequate funding of these cern in Maine, where 1 in 10 people suf- ticks carry West Nile (WNV) and regulations can help protect the state’s fer from asthma. While the state has Lyme disease-causing , respec- coast as the climate changes. reduced ozone concentrations in re- tively, and spread them to or cent years, global warming is expected people. Factors affecting the spread Impacts on Agriculture to worsen air quality in the region, put- of such vector-borne diseases are Maine’s farms are not only an idyllic ting more stress on people with asthma complex; however, projections for the symbol of its heritage, but also a main- and other respiratory diseases. In the Northeast of warmer winters, hotter stay of the state economy, generating absence of more stringent controls on summers, and more frequent summer $1.2 billion every year. Global warming ozone-forming pollutants, the number dry periods punctuated by heavy rain- will present both opportunities and of poor air-quality days in cities like can set the stage for more fre- challenges to Maine’s growers and pro- Augusta could roughly quadruple under quent WNV outbreaks.  co n f r o n t i n g c l i m at e c hange in the u.S. N o r t h e a s t • m a i n e

What We Can Do We have an opportunity to help protect our children and grandchildren from the most severe consequences of global warming by reducing emissions today. At the same time, effective strategies are needed to help reduce the vulnerability of Maine’s residents, , and economies to those changes that are now un- avoidable. Here in Maine, and across the world, New England Futures/Maine DOT there is growing momentum to meet the climate challenge. Of course our ac- tions alone will not be sufficient to avoid dangerous climate change. But with its reputation as a state of sensible and resourceful people and a of national leadership in environmental The Downeaster is a 116-mile Amtrak train route from Boston to Portland, Maine. policy, Maine (along with the rest of the In fiscal year 2006, it was Amtrak’s fastest-growing service, with overall ridership up 23 percent from the previous year. Northeast) is well positioned to drive national and international action. Concerted, sustained efforts to re- ensuring that the state has an efficient state has adopted California’s tailpipe duce emissions in the region—on the and balanced process for evaluating emissions standards, which require re- order of 80 percent below 2000 levels projects and setting targets for sub- ductions of approximately 30 percent by mid-century, and just over 3 percent stantially increasing new genera- below 2002 levels by 2016, beginning per year on average over the next sev- tion over the coming decades. with the 2009 model year (implemen- eral decades—can help pull global tation is contingent upon a ruling ex- emissions below the lower-emissions Buildings. Maine’s relatively old stock pected from the EPA). Vehicle emissions scenario described here. of residential, commercial, and indus- can be further reduced through in- State and municipal governments trial buildings offers substantial oppor- creased investment in public transpor- have a rich array of strategies and poli- tunities to reduce emissions associated tation, incentives to purchase low- cies at their disposal to meet the cli- with water and heating. The state emissions vehicles, and incentives and mate challenge in partnership with already requires all state building proj- regulations that promote “smart growth” other states, businesses, civic institu- ects to achieve the U.S. Green Building strategies such as concentrating devel- tions, and the public. These strategies Council’s Leadership in Energy and En- opment near existing infrastructure and policies would reduce emissions in vironmental Design (LEED) certification; and downtowns. In addition, Maine can the following sectors: local governments could follow suit adopt standards to reduce the carbon and also amend zoning laws to encour- content of fuels. Electric power. As a participant in the age and/or require private projects to Regional Initiative, attain LEED certification and/or desig- Industries and large institutions can Maine can reap substantial energy cost nation as a U.S. Environmental Protec- reduce emissions while lowering ener- savings, promote economic develop- tion Agency (EPA) Energy Star Building. gy costs and enhancing their energy ment, and reduce emissions by auc- Significant emissions reductions and security by installing combined-heat- tioning 100 percent of the emissions energy cost savings could be achieved and-power (CHP) and on-site renew- credits created under the initiative and by eliminating Maine’s distinction as able energy systems. For example, East- investing the proceeds in energy effi- the only New England state without a ern Maine Medical Center in Bangor ciency and develop- residential building energy code. commissioned a CHP system in 2006 that ment. Governor Baldacci’s Task Force will save the facility $1 million per year. on Wind Power Development can help Transportation. Cars and trucks ac- Maine capitalize on its wind resources count for nearly 40 percent of Maine’s Forestry and agriculture policies in (largest among New England states) by total heat-trapping emissions. The Maine can be refined to promote man-  co n f r o n t i n g c l i m at e c hange in the u.S. N o r t h e a s t • m a i n e

agement practices and systems that cost-effectively reduce emissions. Op- portunities for capturing carbon or A Citizen’s Guide to Reducing Emissions

avoiding CO2 emissions from forests include protection, reduced-impact 1. Become carbon-conscious. The problem of global warming stems from a timber harvesting, , and previous lack of awareness of our “carbon footprint” and its effect on climate. bioenergy production—provided the Individuals and families can start by using one of several publicly available latter is done in a sustainable manner. carbon-footprint calculators that will help you understand which choices make the biggest difference. Conclusion 2. Drive change. For most people, choosing a vehicle (and how much they should Global warming represents an enor- drive it) is the single biggest opportunity to slash personal carbon emis- mous challenge, but the solutions are sions. Each gallon of gas used is responsible for 25 pounds of heat-trapping within reach if we act swiftly. The emis- emissions. sions choices we make today in Maine, 3. Look for the Energy Star label. When it comes time to replace household the Northeast, and globally will shape appliances, look for the Energy Star label on new models (refrigerators, freezers, the climate our children and grandchil- furnaces, air conditioners, and water heaters use the most energy). dren inherit. The time to act is now. 4. Choose clean power. Consumers in Maine can purchase electricity from local utilities generated from renewable resources that produce no carbon emissions. If your local utility does not offer a “green” option, consider purchasing renew- able energy certificates. 5. Unplug an underutilized freezer or refrigerator. One of the quickest ways to reduce your global warming impact is to unplug a rarely used refrigerator or

freezer. This can lower the typical family’s CO2 emissions nearly 10 percent. 6. Get a home energy audit. Take advantage of the free home energy audits of- fered by many utilities. Even simple measures (such as installing a programmable

thermostat) can each reduce a typical family’s CO2 emissions about 5 percent. 7. Lightbulbs . If every U.S. household replaced one incandescent light- bulb with an energy-saving compact fluorescent lightbulb (CFL), we could reduce global warming pollution by more than 90 billion pounds over the life of the bulbs. 8. Buy good wood. When buying wood products, check for labels that indicate the source of the timber. Forests managed in a sustainable way are more likely to store carbon effectively—thus helping to slow global warming. 9. Spread the word and help others. A growing movement across the country seeks to reduce individual, family, business, and community emissions while inspiring and assisting others to do the same.

DOE/NREL/Judy Forsythe 10. Let policy makers know you are concerned about global warming. Elected officials and candidates for public office at every level need to hear from citizens. Urge them to support policies and funding choices that will accelerate the shift to a low-emissions future.

This summary was prepared by the Union of Concerned Scientists based on Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Impacts, and Solutions, a report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA, 2007). NECIA is a

Citizens and Scientists for Environmental Solutions collaborative effort between the Union of Concerned Scientists and a team of independent scientific experts to assess how global warming may further affect Two Brattle Square the climate of the U.S. Northeast and to explore options for meeting the climate Cambridge, MA 02238 (617) 547-5552 challenge.

1707 H St. NW, Suite 600 For more information on our changing Northeast climate and what you can do, Washington, DC 20006 or to download a copy of the full report and additional state summaries, (202) 223-6133 visit www.climatechoices.org.