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The Right Road to Sovereignty in Iraq

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The Right Road to Sovereignty in Iraq 27 October 2003 summary The Bush administration is The Right Road pushing for elections in Iraq sometime next year. This to Sovereignty in Iraq extremely accelerated timetable is dangerous. Early elections in Marina Ottaway and Thomas Carothers Senior Associates, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace postconflict situations can pro- duce unstable results and favor radical groups over still-emergent moderate forces. he Bush administration is pushing for constitution into place and race through the Because the administration T an Iraqi constitution to be written and logistical challenges involved in setting up has made elections a requisite approved by spring 2004 and elections to elections. But short-circuiting the process of be held as soon as possible thereafter, most domestic discussion, negotiation, and con- for Iraqi sovereignty and faces likely in the second half of the year. This sensus building that should accompany the growing pressure to transfer approach responds to growing Iraqi and crafting of a new Iraqi political system sovereignty, delaying elections international pressure for a transfer of sov- would be unwise. It would likely result in is not an option. The solution is ereignty from the Coalition Provisional political institutions and processes to which to limit the current constitution Authority (CPA) to an Iraqi government, as many Iraqis feel little connection and that writing to an interim document well as to domestic pressure to limit the do not command the loyalty or respect of mounting financial and human costs of the some key political actors. Worse still, early that provides the framework occupation. Although this timetable is less elections might provoke precisely the sort of for the election of a constituent compressed than the recent proposal by the civil conflict that the CPA hopes so much assembly and an interim govern- French government for elections by early to avoid. ment of national unity. This 2004, it still represents a dangerously accel- Despite these dangers, delaying the would produce an elected Iraqi erated process. The desire for moving so elections is not a viable option. The U.S. quickly is understandable, but the experi- government decided early on after ousting government to which sover- ence of many other countries emerging Saddam Hussein that a transfer of sover- eignty can be transferred and from civil conflict or forcible regime eignty back to an Iraqi government would create a framework for the change shows that hurriedly organized elec- take place only once elections are held. As a longer-term process of political tions often create more problems than they result, the election timetable is hostage to consensus building necessary solve. Much more thorough political prepa- the inexorably growing pressure for sover- ration is needed for elections to produce eignty. It did not have to be that way. Other to create permanent democratic meaningful and lasting results. countries emerging from conflict and institutions. ■n Undoubtedly Paul Bremer, U.S. civil regime change under some kind of external administrator in Iraq, and the CPA have the occupying or administering force have muscle and the technical resources to rush a regained domestic sovereignty before having 2 Policy Brief elections. Afghanistan is just one example. still be protected by the system. They may After the defeat of the Taliban in October refuse to accept the results unless they win. 2001, Afghanistan quickly gained its own Several examples of such rejection of results interim administration, led by President occurred in the 1990s, with different but Hamid Karzai, and a detailed transition equally undesirable outcomes. After a long roadmap, finalized in Bonn in December civil war in Angola and then an uncertain 2001. With sovereignty and a roadmap for peace agreement, the two rival movements, transition already in hand, Afghans have been disguised as political parties but still armed, willing to wait for elections. The planned agreed to participate in elections in 1992. elections of next year will take place close to Each side assumed it would win; neither was three years after the end of the war. seriously committed to a democratic process. Marina Ottaway is a senior If elections remain the gate to sovereignty International technocrats under UN supervi- associate in the Democracy in Iraq, there is only one way to reconcile the sion performed logistical miracles in pulling resultant imperative of holding early elections off the elections, for naught. The losing party and Rule of Law Project. She with the need for a lengthy process of politi- launched another military offensive within is the author of more than ten cal consensus building and institutional cre- days of the elections and ten more years of books including Democracy ation: Limit the first phase of constitution civil war followed. Challenged: The Rise of writing to an interim constitution and hold In Cambodia, opposition parties emerged Semiauthoritarianism (Carnegie the first elections under that framework only victorious from UN-sponsored elections held Endowment, 2003) and Africa’s for an interim government of national unity two years after the 1991 peace agreement that and a constituent assembly. This would pro- brought the long-running civil war to an end. New Leaders: Democracy of duce an elected government to which the But the incumbent leader, Hun Sen, refused to State Reconstruction? (Carnegie CPA could hand over sovereignty and create accept the results. Still in control of the bureau- Endowment, 1999), and co- an institutional framework that could oversee cracy and the military, he forced the parliament editor with Thomas Carothers the longer term, less hurried effort to create to accept the formation of a government head- of Funding Virtue: Civil Society permanent democratic institutions. Even ed by two prime ministers—himself and the with more time Iraqis may not reach the head of the winning party. Before long, howev- Aid and Democracy Promotion compromises necessary to make a democratic er, he grew discontented with sharing power (Carnegie Endowment, 2000). system work. The history of Iraq is one of and seized full power militarily. She also is a professorial political strife kept in check only by authori- And in Liberia, elections imposed by the lecturer in African Studies tarian governments capable of strong-arming international community in 1997 recon- at the School for Advanced all existing political forces into submission. firmed the dominant position of Charles This is not a particularly good starting point Taylor, the victorious leader of the armed International Studies of Johns for building democracy, but it is the reality on group that had devastated the country in Hopkins University. the ground, one that makes it all the more years of war. Liberians gave Taylor a majori- important not to rush the process. ty vote not because they liked him but because they realized he would not allow Danger of Premature Elections himself to be sidelined by an electoral loss Rushing to elections in countries emerging and would plunge the country back into war from conflict or sudden regime collapse often in response to an unfavorable showing. prevents the necessary process of negotiation Elections that promised at least stability and over the basic political rules and bargains for a perhaps the start of a political liberalization new democratic system. Holding elections process brought neither. Taylor ruled repres- without a solid underlying political consensus sively, and opposition forces returned to on the rules and substance of a new political fighting. The country lapsed again into dis- system presents at least two major dangers. astrous civil war, prompting recently anoth- First, some of the major political forces er round of international intervention, led may lack the confidence that if they do poor- by West African peacekeepers, with minor ly in the elections their basic interests will U.S. support. Sovereignty in Iraq 3 The second danger of early elections is The Sunni elite, struggling with the calami- that they can increase the power of radical, tous loss of its dominant position, is unlikely uncompromising groups. Such political to be very happy with what elections will forces tend to be the first to organize in post- bring it. conflict situations and do well in hurried elec- tions. Citizens divided along ethnic or Crafting a Political System in Iraq religious lines are often wary of the ability of In building a new political system, Iraqis will a fragile new political system to protect their have to reach agreement on an almost over- core identity-based interests and vote for rad- whelming number of difficult, divisive politi- icals who promise to defend such interests by cal issues. The most important and divisive, any means. but by no means the only, issues that will arise Bosnia is a telling example in this regard. in writing a constitution include the following: Thomas Carothers, who At the insistence of the international powers directs the Democracy and occupying the country after the 1995 Dayton ■ In devising a federal system for Iraq, Rule of Law Project at the Accords, Bosnia held elections just nine which many groups favor, critical decisions months after the peace agreement was will be necessary about the boundaries of the Carnegie Endowment for reached. In those elections, which are now new internal states and the degree of auton- International Peace, is an widely viewed by political analysts as a set- omy they possess. The Kurds have already international lawyer and back for reconciliation and democratization, drafted a constitutional proposal calling for a political scientist, and has radical nationalist forces on all three sides of federation composed of one Kurdish and one written extensively on democ- the ethnic divide defeated more moderate Arab state, with significant autonomy for the racy promotion, including groups. New, moderate parties had insuffi- states. Other Iraqis want to see states with less cient time to organize.
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