Final Report Performing Arts Center Market & Feasibility Study

Submitted to: City of Hot Springs, AR

Submitted by: Market & Feasibility Advisors

Friday, January 22, 2016

MFA Project Number: 582

One South Dearborn, Suite 2100 Chicago IL 60603 312.212.4451 www.mfallc.com Chicago Austin

Ta b l e of Contents

Table of Contents ______2 Introduction & Summary ______3 Analysis of Comparable Venues ______7 Little Rock/North Little Rock 7 Rodgers/Fayetteville - Walton Performing Arts Center 12 Detailed Facility Stats 15 Analysis of Comparable Tourist Communities ______17 Hot Springs, AR Market Demographics ______23 60-Minute Drive Time Market 23 Population 23 Ethnicity & Education 25 Household Income & Spending 26 Economic/Business Profile 28 Recreational Activities 29 60- 100 Minute Drive Time Market 30 Population 30 Ethnicity & Education 31 Household Income & Spending 31 Economic/Business Profile 35 Recreational Activities 36 Arkansas Tourism ______37 Summary 37 Demand Projections ______40 Evaluation of Potential Audience 40 Arts Attendance Summary 40 National Trends in Performing Arts 41 Demand Potential – Local Market 44 Demand Potential – Visitor (Tourism) Market 45 The Future of Performing Arts ______47 STEEP Analysis 47 Funding of Performing Arts 48 Operating Statement ______49 Appendix: Comparable Community Profiles ______55 Eureka Springs, AR 55 Santa Fe, NM 60 St. Augustine, FL 65 Palm Springs, CA 70 Stockbridge, MA 75 Asheville, NC 80 Saratoga Springs, NY 85 Mackinaw City/Mackinac Island, MI 90 Sedona, AZ 95 Napa, CA 100 General Limiting Conditions ______105

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Introduction & S u m m a r y

Market & Feasibility Advisors (MFA) was engaged to complete a feasibility study for the development of a performing arts center in Hot Springs, Arkansas. The primary measure of feasibility is whether the performing arts center user groups would actually pay facility use charges close to true operating costs for the facility or have an economic impact on the community of a scale that would support reduced rates.

We would recommend against an expectation that building user fees would include payback of the initial capital development costs of the facility as this is rarely possible.

To complete this study MFA:

 Ascertained demand from many local arts groups was through profiles and interviews – in summary, there are many excellent groups but few actually have a significant economic impact on the community (draw out-of-town-visitors who spend locally) or could afford to pay rental fees that would be fully-loaded with true operating costs;  Investigated local and regional comparable facilities were for the operational lessons they held – many of the local arts groups have found local performance spaces they can afford and are satisfied with (not including the convention center) nearby facilities in Little Rock are generally quite good (or will be when they re-open). Theater will be well-accommodated in Little Rock and a good facility in Hot Springs Village;  Reviewed facilities in other tourism communities that drew similar tourism markets – these communities have many legacy facilities supported by philanthropy from prior generations. Some have incorporated the performing arts into their touristic draw, largely through resident companies from nearby cities and festivals;  Reviewed trends in Arkansas and Hot Springs tourism – Arkansas continues to be a destination state, especially from Texas, Missouri and Illinois (in that order). Hot Springs tourism has never been more balanced in demand across the 12 months of the year but the November to March period continues to be the weakest time of the year;  Identified and reviewed national arts participation trends – the arts continue to be a significant part of American life but some of the traditional forms of music and theater continue to slowly slide in popularity resulting in some uncertainty for the development of new facilities. Generational change in how music and culture are enjoyed continues to change as music increasingly becomes personalized as a soundtrack of one’s life. The festival industry fragments as some become more successful and others less so; and  Used this data as inputs to assess the potential feasibility of a proposed facility for the performing arts in Hot Springs.

On balance, if philanthropic support coupled with public funding sufficient to pay for all capital costs associated with the development of a Hot Springs performing arts center can be found and support for an annual operating deficit identified, a performing arts center, w/o a theater capability, may be feasible for Hot Springs.

It would be critical that public support be justified with a program of film and musical festivals and a higher level incarnation of the current invitational youth music program all be designed to draw tourism, especially in the November to March time period when tourism is at its lowest. This could include the current festivals at a much higher level and a seasonal holiday program to draw people in for the last half of November and all of December.

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As we do not believe that the initial capital costs could be borne by future programming at the facility and that an annual subsidy of between one and two million dollars would be necessary, this development is technically feasible only in as much as the local community believes that it could accommodate these subsidies.

A potential site for the facility has been identified. It is the site of the historic Majestic Hotel where Whittington Avenue, Park Avenue, and Central Avenue meet. The hotel has been closed and was largely destroyed in a recent fire.

It is directly across the street from the State of Arkansas’ School for Mathematics, the Science and the Arts. The school could play a small role in ongoing support but not with initial capital for development.

From its founding, Hot Springs has thrived on the tourism industry. Proposed new investment in the community can best be justified when it can support and expand that industry.

The tourism industry has grown in recent years as can be seen in the graph below. Even through the recession years the hospitality tax grew.

What has changed in recent years has been how evenly distributed the tourism has been distributed throughout the year. Racing season peaks have been minimized by Oaklawn’s transition to casino gaming and conventions and conferences have added a flow of tourism in the fall and spring, previously slower periods. The pie chart on the next page illustrates that tax revenue is evenly distributed through the year within a 4% variance.

Still, April, August, and July are the peak months. Together they generate almost 31% of the tourism taxes though they are just 25% of the year. December, January and February, are the low point. Also 25% of the year, those months generate just under 20% of the yearly tax totals. More broadly, the November through March period accounts for 42% of the year but deliver only 35% of the annual tax revenue. (Please see the pie chart on the next page.) If there is any period of the year that could be supported by a new tourism product, it would be these five months (November through March).

Can a performing arts facility do this?

The arts and tourism can be strong partners in drawing people to a place but they have been strongest when “the arts” are of national or international consequence. Paris draws for many reasons but the city’s museums are a big part of the draw. The power of a museum was seen when a new Frank Gehry museum put the little known Spanish city of Bilbao on the map in the 1990’s. Similarly, museums and theater are a part of London and New York’s draw. Graceland, Bob Marley’s home, and Jim Morrison’s grave still inspire pilgrimages. The Rock Hall in Cleveland inspires stopovers there.

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Dropping down a level, country music remains a critical part of the Nashville vibe and club music of several genres does it for New Orleans too as does the Jazz & Heritage Festival. Annual special musical events like the Newport Jazz Festival, SXSW in Austin, Chicago’s Lollapalooza, middle Tennessee’s Bonnaroo, and Milwaukee’s Summerfest can distort how locals live their lives for a week of mad tourism.

It’s not just music, film has shown its power to draw too. Venice, Cannes, Toronto, Sundance, and Berlin all are top film fests but there are lists of the “top fifty film fests” including Ashland and Bend, OR, Missoula, MT, Chagrin Falls, OH, Maitland, FL, Little Rock, Fort Worth, Napa Valley, Nantucket, Oxford (MS), Providence, Santa Fe, Savannah, Taos, Columbia (MD), and Tampa – proving that you don’t have to be an international city to host a highly regarded film festival.

These points about music and film festivals are to make the point that they could be the tourism dimension of a Hot Springs performing arts center – especially as you already have some promising fests that could be taken to a higher level and, you have a youth music camp program that may be under appreciated for its excellence too.

The current music fest linked to Austin’s SXSW annually in March could engage a larger number of artists for a festival as soon as possible in months with relatively lower tourism like May or June, which have annual tourism shares of 8% to 9% than the adjacent months of April and July with their annual share of tourism at 10% to 11%.

Three to four other music and film festivals could be shifted to those months between and including November to March with lower share of the annual tourism market of 6% to 8%. This time period suggests festivals that are less family and more adult oriented as families tend to travel less in the winter months. That restriction may not be very limiting as only about 30% of all households include children 18-years or younger. Some 70% of all households are all adult households in the US today.

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A seasonal festival program on weekends in November and December could be targeted to DFW and the Texas market. That seasonal program could take a number of forms but depending on schedule availability could include utilization of the convention center space and the Bank of the Ozarks arena. Retail sales have been flattening out during this time period as people seek more experiences than merchandise during the holiday season.

The dilemma is that that series of primarily winter month festivals could render an outdoor amphitheater space minimally useful during the November to March period. That suggests that any performing arts center space be indoors. We recommend that if this project proceeds, consideration be given to a 400 seat music and film theater and smaller 150 seat theater adjacent.

Most of the other performance space needs of the community, including live theater, while critical to the cultural fiber of the community do not have a significant touristic dimension and are not likely to be in a position to pay what it actually costs to operate a performing arts center in Hot Springs. While they would be very welcome to use a new facility, the two proposed indoor facilities should suit their needs well. We heard repeated calls for a 400 seat theater and a smaller one as well during our community interviews.

If Hot Springs were to be able to afford a Performing Arts Center we believe the three key components would be: an enclosed musical performance theater for 600 with the capability to show digital films as well, a 250-person small theater that would be primarily for music and film but could be used for small performances that do not require more than a small stage and minimal back-of-the-house support facilities, and an outdoor amphitheater with the capacity to hold a thousand people and in the warm weather be suitable for showing films when the sun goes down. This three facility package should also include kitchen and service facilities to support the festivals and musical entertainment that would be the principal users of the facility.

This document includes an operating statement, 5-year plus start-up year budget for such a facility. It is critical to keep in mind that the operating statement includes an annual operating deficit of over a million dollars per year and no provisions for paying back the initial capital expenditures necessary to create this complex.

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Analysis of Comparable Venues

Little Rock/North Little Rock

Robinson Music Center/Robinson Center Music Hall (Joseph Taylor Robinson Memorial Auditorium)

Built in downtown Little Rock (Pulaski County) during the Great Depression as a Public Works Administration (PWA) project, the Joseph Taylor Robinson Memorial Auditorium—known since 1973 as the Robinson Center Music Hall—frequently hosts touring performances, including Broadway musicals, and is home to the Arkansas Symphony Orchestra.

In addition to the main stage and arena, including mezzanine and balcony seating, the building also holds lecture/exhibit halls and meeting rooms. As originally designed and built, the auditorium had two separate performance venues on an upper and lower level.

Among the first events hosted in the auditorium were high school basketball games, but orchestral performances, ballet, and traveling theater rapidly came to the impressive new building. During the 1940s, the building also was used as a community center, offering ping pong, shuffleboard, bridge, checkers, and domino tournaments.

Among the many famous performers and speakers to appear at the Robinson Memorial Auditorium in the 1940s were Louis Armstrong, Katharine Hepburn, Ella Fitzgerald, Mae West, Gene Autry, Bob Hope, Ethel Barrymore, Duke Ellington, Guy Lombardo, Eleanor Roosevelt, and Dwight D. Eisenhower. Some performers would offer two shows on the same day to different audiences, one upstairs and one downstairs. Elvis Presley performed at the auditorium in 1955 and 1956; for the first appearance, he was paid $150, but he grossed $9,000 when he returned a year later.

In 1966, the Arkansas Symphony Orchestra made the Robinson Memorial Auditorium its home. The building underwent extensive renovation in 1973, with underground parking added in the place of the lower performance hall. An attached hotel was erected to the east. That same year, the name was formally changed to the Robinson Center Music Hall. Famous acts continue to appear at the Robinson Center, including traveling Broadway shows such as Les Miserables, Riverdance, and Wicked. Since its renovation, the auditorium seats 2,609.

The building was added to the National Register of Historic Places on February 21, 2007. In 2012, the Little Rock Convention and Visitors Bureau announced plans for an extensive upgrade of the center’s facilities, including an expanded lobby and stage, as well as acoustical and technological improvements. Work began in 2014 and is expected to be completed in 2016. Once the renovation is complete the facility is expected to reopen as a LEED Certified structure.

Performance Hall Improvements:

 Dropping the stage 36’ to ground level in order to create more acoustic volume and height  Bringing the back of the hall forward, closer to the stage, in order to provide improved sight lines for all patrons  Adding a four-stage grid and a series of cat-walks for increased production capabilities  The creation of two balcony levels with theater box seating along the side walls, creating a much more intimate feel to the hall  Adding a mechanical lift for the orchestra pit in order to allow the symphony and musical performances to be inside the audience chamber  A new orchestra shell addition of adjustable acoustic panels to improve and adjust acoustics according to the hall’s performance needs

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 Complete restoration of the historic lobby  Creation of a patron’s lounge

Back of House Improvements:

 Increased loading capacity, with two truck bays on stage level  Increased support and staging areas for performers and show sets  Completely new electrical and mechanical systems  Improved and enhanced staging and lighting systems  Increased dressing and chorus room capacity, on stage level  The creation of a back stage corridor and performers lounge

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Visitor Experience & Accessibility Improvements:

 expanded restroom capacity  a permanent box office  additional monitors and technology throughout the facility  increased ADA accessibility  two new entrance vestibules from the adjoining parking garage  improved signage and interior way-faring  built in concession and merchandise areas  new patron drop-off areas  increased lobby space with visual connectivity for multiple building levels

The total project cost: is estimated at $68.6 million, financing for the project is to use the existing 2% Advertising & Promotion (A&P) tax for the repayment of a public bonds. This practice was used before in 1980 to repay the bonds that built the original Statehouse Convention Center.

In Arkansas cities are allowed to form A&P Commissions and enact up to 3 cents taxes on hotel room sales and prepared foods (restaurants). However the use of these funds is restricted to

 Advertising and promotion of the city and its environs; or,  For construction, reconstruction, extension, equipment, improvement, maintenance, repair and operation of a convention center.  May use or pledge all or any part of the revenues derived from this tax for the operation of tourist- •oriented facilities, including but not limited to, theme parks and other family-­oriented facilities…or other tourist-•oriented facilities.

The last use was amended to read: “auditoriums and parking facilities, in connection with, or in support of, a convention center project, and then expanded again to include convention center or centers (multiple) and, as written in the ordinance…the duties and responsibilities of the commission are essential to the continued development of the City, and the welfare of its citizens.”

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During the renovation project, the Arkansas Symphony Orchestra (ASO) and the Broadway Theater Series continue to offer season entertainment in alternate venues across Central Arkansas.

The ASO currently uses three alternative venues:  Maumelle Performing Arts Center (1,200 seats)  Pulaski Academy Connor Performing Arts Center  William J. Clinton Presidential Library

Ticket prices for the ASO vary between:  Single Tickets: $19-$58  Student discounts are available  Tickets for kids are free

The Broadway Theater Series moved to  Maumelle Performing Arts Center

Ticket prices for the Broadway Series vary  Single Tickets: $32-$67  Group Tickets: $29-$61  Season Tickets: $105-$200 (three productions/shows)

Riverfest Amphitheater (First Security Amphitheater)

Riverfest Amphitheatre (First Security Amphitheater) is part of Little Rock’s River Market district. The facility hosts a variety of events and concerts each year, including Riverfest, July 4th POPS! and many performances by local and national artists. The amphitheater has an event capacity of 7,500, with 1,375 fixed seats. The outdoor stage also offers an excellent view of the Arkansas River.

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The River Market District is located in downtown Little Rock, along the Arkansas River. The River Market includes: Restaurants and bars, Market Hall (with 15 dining establishments), Farmer’s Market, Riverfront Park, Riverfest Amphitheatre, River Market Pavilions, Bill and Margaret Clark Multi-purpose room, shopping, the William J. Clinton Presidential Center, (park, store, and school), Heifer International, the Arkansas Studies Institute, and the Witt Stephens Jr. Central Arkansas Nature Center.

Facility Stats:

 Size of grounds: 7 acres  Event capacity: 7,875  Fixed seating: 1,375  Restrooms: Can accommodate attendance of 4,000  Dressing rooms: 4-all with showers  Stage: 60'x60'  Truss: 23' from floor to bottom truss / 27' from floor to top truss  Rated for: 56,000lbs  Load in: 2 trucks at stage level

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Rodgers/Fayetteville - Walton Performing Arts Center

The Walton Arts Center is the product of a partnership between public and private sectors.

In the late 1980's the University of Arkansas was looking into building a performing arts center. The Walton Family had given a major gift to be used for the building of an auditorium that would accommodate major touring shows, other performing arts opportunities and the Wal-Mart shareholder's meeting. Initially an auditorium with approximately 2,000 seats was considered.

At the same time, the City of Fayetteville was discussing the idea of a multi-use community arts facility. The North Arkansas Symphony was performing in the Baptist Church and gymnasium facilities. Community theater groups were also searching for spaces to perform. Hotel/Motel and Restaurant (HMR) Tax, currently at 2%, was used to build a community arts center.

The University of Arkansas and the City of Fayetteville formed an Interlocal Agreement and proceeded with plans for the arts center. Compromises were made on both sides. The site of the center on Dickson Street represented a compromise, but also a win for both parties with the ultimate revitalization of the Dickson Street area. The size of the hall (1200 seats) was also an acceptable compromise.

Walton Arts Center opened in 1992, and in its 23rd year, the center features full season of week-long Broadway shows, a jazz series, kids and family programming, dance, music and theatrical performances, spring and summer performing arts-based camps, the summer AWE (Arts with Education) teacher's professional development Institute, plus a host of community based events, including productions by the University of Arkansas and TheatreSquared. Performances and Events of the 2014-2015 season are listed below.

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Walton Arts Center has partnered with the Symphony of Northwest Arkansas to revive the local professional symphony, while also expanding concerts and events at the University of Arkansas' Bud Walton and Barn Hill Arenas. In mid-February 2011, Walton Arts Center purchased the Arkansas Music Pavilion (AMP) at Northwest Arkansas Mall, which was moved to its new permanent location with 6,000-seats, half of those covered and new patron and artist amenities (5079 West Northgate Rd, Rogers, AR 72758).

Currently the Walton Arts Center is beginning of an expansion of the Fayetteville campus, with construction expected to be complete in 2017.

Plans are to renovate and add 30,000 square feet of space to the Walton Arts Center creating a two theater complex (Baum Walker Hall – 1,200 seats/Starr Theater 250 seats) capable of hosting diverse programming, and to add new open lobby spaces that will help facilitate a variety of special events:

 Enhance audience experiences with an expanded and renovated atrium and become a destination event space in downtown Fayetteville.  Update Starr Theater and add much needed backstage space to ensure two fully-functional theaters operate in Walton Arts Center’s main facility.  Make technical upgrades that keep Walton Arts Center current with the demands of artists and tours and increase accessibility and amenities to ensure a friendly destination for all.  Add a new parking deck for over 200 vehicles and administrative offices for Walton Arts Center staff.

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Visitation Walton Arts Center attracts an estimated 200,000 visitors each year, arts attendees spend $20-40 each on top of the price of the ticket when attending a performance. A review of the current available performances revealed single ticket prices between $8 and $76.

Education Access: Since 1992, an estimated 600,000 (26,000 annual average) students and teachers have visited and participated Walton Arts Center’s educational programs

Resident Company Usage Walton Arts Center provides support, space and ticketing services to four resident companies.  Symphony Orchestra of Northwest Arkansas (SoNA): Presents classical and pops orchestral performances.  TheatreSquared: Produces nationally acclaimed performances and is Northwest Arkansas’ only professional theater company.  Trike Theatre: Presents professional theater productions and offers drama classes for young audiences as Northwest Arkansas’ first professional theater for youth.  Community Creative Center: Provides visual arts classes and workshops for children and adults.

Walton Arts Center Season 23 (2014-2015)

 The Adventures of Robin Hood  The Australian Bee Gees Show  Artosphere Festival Orchestra  The Bad Plus  Ballroom With A Twist  Bill Engvall  Camelot  Cameron Carpenter  Chuggington Live! The Great Rescue Adventure  Clarice Assad Trio  Clint Black Christmas With You  Cyrus Chestnut Quartet - Brubeck Reimagined  The Dan Band  David Sedaris  Dr. John and the Nite Trippers  Elf The Musical  Elvis Lives  Funkadesi  The Gruffalo's Child  Home Free  The Hot Sardines  Jake Shimabukuro  Jazz at Lincoln Center Orchestra with Wynton Marsalis Big Band Holidays  Jeanne Robertson  Joe Locke Quartet with vocalist Kenny Washington  Joseph and the Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat  Kathleen Madigan Again

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 Koresh Dance Company  New York Standards Quartet  Nice Work If You Can Get It  Marc Cohn  Mediaeval Baebes  The Midtown Men  Mythbusters: Behind The Myths  Moscow Classical Ballet's The Nutcracker  Once  Rhonda Vincent & The Rage  Rocky Horror Picture Show  The Second City's Nut-crackin' Holiday Revue  Sid The Science Kid LIVE!  Slava's Snowshow  So Percussion  Spot  Tangram  Timber! presented by Cirque Alfonse  The Ugly Duckling and The Tortoise & The Hare  Wendy Whelan Restless Creature

Current 2015-16 Broadway Series Pricing:  6 shows total – each plays for 6 days with two shows on Saturday and Sunday  Packages between $147-$350  Individual between $36 -$70

Detailed Facility Stats

Baum Walker Hall

A 1,201-seat auditorium with proscenium stage fully equipped for theatrical performances. This venue is used for recitals, lectures, musical performances, ceremonies and concerts.  Total Capacity: 1,201  Orchestra Pit Capacity: 35  Orchestra Level Capacity: 704  Balcony: 462  Proscenium opening: 24' high x 58' wide

Starr Theater

This black box theater is equipped with complete theatrical lighting. As a reception site, Starr Theater can host formal dinners, wedding receptions, holiday parties and fundraising galas.  Retractable Seating: 132  Theater Style Capacity: 150-164 (132 retractable seating + additional floor seats)  Lecture Style Capacity: 220 (132 retractable seating + additional floor seats)  Seated dinner: 160  Reception: 250  Room measures 50' x 55' or 2,750 square feet

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McBride Studio

This studio space is used for pre and post-performance receptions, smaller dinners, business meetings and classes.  Theater Style capacity: 100  Seated Dinner: 72  Reception: 100  Room measures 38' x 40' or 1,520 square feet  Studio Theater image

Cynthia H. Coughlin Gallery/Main Lobby

The hub of activity before or after any event at WAC, the main lobby is an alternative setting for receptions and dinners when performances are not scheduled.  Theater Style capacity: 150  Seated Dinner: 112  Reception: 400  Room measures 31' x 120' or 4960 square feet

Bradberry Amphitheater/Rosen Memorial Rose Garden

This semi-private outdoor venue offers guests a garden-like atmosphere and is appropriate for wedding ceremonies, receptions and dinners. Gated entrances allow guest access from Dickson Street.  Theater Style capacity: 150 guests seated on stone steps  Seated Dinner: 48  Reception: 150-200  Amphitheater/garden is approximately 2,000 square feet

Joy Pratt Markham Gallery

This visual arts space is available for occasional rental.

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Analysis of Comparable Tourist Communities

Hot Springs and many other tourism communities across the US that drawn visitors for many generations have a number of characteristics in common. This research identified ten other communities across the US that share a number of the key characteristics of Hot Springs as a tourism destination.

We investigated whether or not these communities supported performing arts facilities. The answer proved to be generally yes, but almost all of the facilities developed were the result of recent or long-ago philanthropy. Something we sense is likely to be absent in Hot Springs.

Local government had assisted in some of the newer developments, but the driving force proved to be the local arts community and significant philanthropy associated with it. It was also clear that in addition to having private capital development support in the construction of most of these facilities, none operated on a break-even basis. All required annual subsidy.

In our research charge we understand that feasibility for a Hot Springs performing arts facility would be defined as being able to support itself financially on an ongoing basis as tax revenue support would be elusive. Nine key common characteristics unify these ten communities. They are:

 feature historical attractions,  have an old town center at their core,  feature a performing arts center and/or art galleries,  are a health or spa destination,  may feature gaming,  have become retirement and/or second home communities,  and are near nationally or regionally noted natural resources.

Some of these communities, like Santa Fe, New Mexico, Asheville, North Carolina and the Stockbridge area of Massachusetts have made the arts, although not necessarily the performing arts, a centerpiece of the tourist draw of their communities.

Nine key common characteristics unify these ten communities. They are: feature historical attractions, have an old town center at their core, feature a performing arts center, are a health or spa destination, may feature gaming, have become retirement and second hoe communities, and are near nationally or regionally noted natural resources. Santa Fe, NM and Napa, CA share all of these attributes. Hot Springs, Eureka Springs, AR, Palm Springs, CA, The Stockbridge MA area, Asheville, NC and Sedona, AZ share eight of the attributes. Of the nine, Hot Springs is missing only the performing arts center.

While not an exhaustive search, we identified the following facilities in each of the ten communities.

Eureka Springs, AR  Intrigue Theater  Pine Mountain Theater – may have closed.  Ozark Mountain Hoe-Down Music Theater  Eureka Springs City Auditorium  The Great Passion Play – seems to be and outdoor stage/amphitheater  Gaskin Switch Theater – website not accessible

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Santa Fe, NM  Lensic Performing Arts Center 821 seats  Armory for the Arts Theater 300 seats  Greer Garson Theater 513 seats  Santa Fe Playhouse  The Screen seats 165 St. Augustine, FL  St Augustine Amphitheater 3.493 seats  Limelight Theater 125 seats Palm Springs, CA  McCallum Theater seats 1,127 seats  Palm Canyon Theater 228 seats  Annenburg Theater 405 seats Stockbridge Area, MA  Mahaiwe Performing Arts Center (Great Barrington)  Colonial Theater (Pittsfield) 760 seat space  Fitzpatrick Main Stage (Stockbridge) 408 seats  Unicorn Theatre (Stockbridge) 122 seats Asheville, NC  Diana Worthham Theater  Asheville Community Theater  The Performance Center  Montfort Park Players  NC Stage Company Saratoga Springs, NY  Saratoga Performing Arts Center Mackinaw City/Mackinac Island, MI  Grand Hotel Terrace Room  Orpheum Theater  Grand Hotel Tea Garden  Marquette Park  Cheboygan Opera House Sedona, AZ  Cliff Castle Casino Stargazer pavilion  Sedona Performing Arts Center Napa, CA  Napa Valley Performing Arts Center – Lincoln Theater  Napa Valley Conservatory Theater  Napa Valley Opera House

The next page compares, in a chart, the destination characteristics of each of the ten communities.

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Table 1. Use Matrix Comparable Destination Communities Use/Attraction Historical Old Town Health/Spa Art Performing Gambling Retirement Second National Number of Attractions at Core Destination Galleries Arts Homes Park/Forest Matches Nearby Town Hot Springs, AR Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y 8 Eureka Springs, Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y 8 AR Santa Fe, NM Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 9 St Augustine, Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y N 7 FL Palm Springs, N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 8 CA Stockbridge Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y 8 Area, MA Asheville, NC Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y 8 Saratoga Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y 7 Springs, NY Mackinaw Y Y N Y Y Y N Y Y 7 City/Island, MI Napa, CA Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 9 Sedona, AZ Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 8 Source: MFA

The pages that follow illustrate, in two tables – one for a tighter market area and one for a larger one - the relative population, income, and other demographic characteristics of Hot Springs in comparison to the ten other communities. It also presents some key levels of performing artistic interest such as the percentage of the local population that have attended a number of different kinds of music concerts and theater.

In size, Hot Springs has the largest population of the group – several times larger in a number of comparisons and it has the lowest median household income. Interestingly, the lower median household incomes do not preclude respectable participation rates for concert, theater and other arts participation rates. Hot Springs had some higher participation levels than those found in other, wealthier communities.

As Hot Springs has the highest population, the result is that there are more arts participants in Hot Springs than in many of the more upscale communities in this comparable communities set. Greater detail, including market area maps are included in an appendix.

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Table 2. Comparable Communities Demographic Indicators Local Market Indicator/Community Hot Eureka Santa Fe St Augustine Palm Stockbrid Asheville Saratoga Mackinaw Sedona Napa Springs Springs Springs ge Area Springs City/Island Population 432,668 305,806 119,845 116,549 320,382 83,976 273,839 276,472 85,898 131,548 269,098 Households 176,843 114,811 52,791 48,139 128,233 37,041 115,776 112,922 34,103 52,276 95,295 Families 112,682 79,117 29,388 30,655 77,188 21,671 70,277 74,113 22,385 30,227 64,565 Average Household Size 2.37 2.64 2.23 2.37 2.48 2.19 2.29 2.40 2.34 2.32 2.77 Median Household Income $41,788 $44,192 $51,347 $52,883 $45,797 $50,166 $43,765 $69,292 $43,227 $44,140 $63,069 Average Household Income $57,004 $61,912 $74,207 $70,900 $70,210 $68,299 $60,552 $85,325 $59,204 $58,986 $85,093 Per Capita Income $23,571 $23,271 $32,825 $29,463 $28,210 $30,232 $25,707 $35,056 $23,859 $24,670 $30,587 Median Disposable Income $36,919 $38,364 $42,778 $44,338 $39,398 $39,528 $35,068 $52,718 $35,775 $37,346 $52,669 Average Disposable Income $47,489 $50,616 $58,238 $57,822 $55,020 $52,232 $45,704 $63,962 $46,845 $49,014 $66,010 Went to art gallery in last 12 5.8% 6.0% 9.0% 7.3% 7.3% 8.6% 7.6% 8.3% 5.5% 8.1% 7.8% months Went to bar/night club in last 15.2% 15.6% 17.3% 16.6% 14.5% 17.8% 17.1% 19.0% 14.9% 17.5% 17.2% 12 months Danced/went dancing last 12 8.4% 8.0% 8.5% 8.3% 7.6% 8.8% 8.6% 8.5% 8.0% 9.8% 8.8% months Attended dance performance 3.5% 3.6% 4.5% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.5% 3.4% 4.8% 4.4% in last 12 months Dined out in last 12 months 42.7% 43.4% 46.4% 48.1% 43.8% 49.5% 46.8% 50.8% 43.2% 47.7% 45.5% Gambled at casino in last 12 13.1% 13.3% 14.6% 14.2% 16.0% 15.0% 13.9% 15.7% 12.7% 13.1% 16.1% months Attended horse races in last 2.4% 2.5% 2.9% 2.5% 2.8% 2.9% 2.6% 2.8% 2.1% 2.6% 2.9% 12 months Attended a movie in last 6 56.3% 57.1% 61.3% 60.4% 58.8% 60.2% 59.0% 62.8% 52.4% 62.2% 61.7% months Went to museum in last 12 10.1% 10.6% 14.3% 13.0% 11.6% 14.0% 12.7% 14.3% 9.2% 13.0% 13.9% months Attended classical music/opera performance/12 3.1% 3.1% 4.9% 3.9% 4.3% 4.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2.6% 4.8% 4.2% months Attended country music performance in last 12 5.9% 5.9% 5.4% 6.0% 4.8% 5.7% 5.9% 6.4% 6.1% 5.9% 4.6% months Attended rock music performance in last 12 7.9% 8.1% 10.3% 9.6% 8.2% 11.3% 9.5% 11.2% 7.3% 9.2% 10.5% months Played musical instrument in 6.6% 6.8% 7.0% 6.9% 5.9% 7.0% 7.1% 7.5% 6.8% 7.7% 6.4% last 12 months Went to live theater in last 12 10.9% 11.1% 14.3% 13.4% 13.4% 14.8% 12.7% 14.1% 10.1% 13.7% 13.2% months Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

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Table 3. Comparable Communities Demographic Indicators Regional Market Indicator/Community Hot Eureka Santa Fe St Palm Stockbridge Asheville Saratoga Mackinaw Sedona Napa Springs Springs Augustine Springs Area, Springs City/Island Population 646,622 678,838 74,619 732,700 308,604 291,311 208,067 657,329 122,053 275,877 1,024,227 Households 255,975 265,147 29,015 296,498 99,589 121,189 88,932 273,061 51,734 110,293 374,810 Families 171,422 180,439 19,405 189,364 73,995 74,647 58,375 159,047 34,554 74,275 249,931 Average Household Size 2.47 2.51 2.54 2.42 3.06 2.33 2.29 2.30 2.31 2.46 2.67 Median Household Income $41,788 $45,265 $53,539 $52,997 $46,205 $54,579 $41,979 $54,306 $42,929 $53,043 $67,803 Average Household Income $57,004 $61,528 $75,026 $73,445 $67,639 $72,317 $56,134 $72,308 $55,901 $71,692 $89,188 Per Capita Income $23,571 $24,231 $29,223 $29,956 $22,171 $30,086 $24,017 $30,599 $23,835 $28,924 $33,080 Median Disposable Income $39,768 $38,007 $45,291 $44,558 $39,370 $43,102 $33,534 $42,668 $35,696 $44,523 $55,190 Average Disposable Income $52,001 $49,892 $59,538 $59,357 $53,416 $55,112 $43,022 $54,823 $44,970 $58,421 $69,023 Went to art gallery in last 12 5.8% 5.9% 7.3% 7.9% 6.4% 7.9% 5.5% 8.2% 5.1% 7.8% 8.5% months Went to bar/night club in last 15.4% 16.4% 14.4% 18.2% 14.7% 17.6% 13.5% 18.7% 15.1% 16.5% 18.0% 12 months Danced/went dancing last 12 8.1% 8.4% 7.6% 9.0% 7.8% 9.0% 7.5% 9.0% 7.8% 8.0% 9.3% months Attended dance performance 3.3% 3.5% 3.9% 4.1% 4.0% 4.5% 3.4% 4.3% 3.3% 4.5% 4.6% in last 12 months Dined out in last 12 months 43.3% 46.9% 43.9% 48.3% 42.4% 47.2% 43.6% 46.5% 45.1% 49.9% 46.2% Gambled at casino in last 12 12.8% 13.4% 13.7% 14.8% 15.2% 15.7% 12.7% 14.7% 12.7% 15.4% 16.1% months Attended horse races in last 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 3.0% 2.7% 2.9% 2.2% 2.8% 2.1% 2.8% 3.1% 12 months Attended a movie in last 6 56.8% 58.7% 56.6% 62.8% 58.2% 60.1% 52.3% 61.2% 52.5% 61.3% 62.6% months Went to museum in last 12 10.6% 11.1% 10.8% 13.7% 11.0% 13.2% 9.3% 13.6% 8.8% 13.1% 15.1% months Attended classical music/opera performance/12 3.0% 3.1% 3.0% 4.2% 3.5% 3.9% 2.8% 4.4% 2.5% 4.4% 4.3% months Attended country music performance in last 12 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 6.0% 4.9% 5.2% 6.1% 5.8% 6.8% 5.9% 4.6% months Attended rock music performance in last 12 8.1% 8.5% 7.8% 10.8% 8.3% 10.8% 6.7% 10.9% 7.3% 9.7% 11.3% months Played musical instrument in 6.7% 7.0% 6.5% 7.3% 6.1% 7.1% 6.3% 7.4% 7.5% 6.7% 7.0% last 12 months Went to live theater in last 12 10.8% 11.4% 11.4% 14.0% 11.5% 13.4% 10.9% 13.1% 9.7% 14.5% 13.8% months Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

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Hot Springs, AR M a r k e t Demographics

MFA analyzed the demographic composition of the Hot Springs market in order to characterize the demand for the proposed performing arts center.

For purposes of this analysis, MFA established two market areas to determine demand for various types of activities and events related to a performing arts center. The trade area is composed of two markets, as defined below. The map on the next page illustrates the location of each of the market areas.

In addition to the local markets MFA analyzed Hot Spring’s tourism market an important source of demand since Hot Springs is has an established destination for leisure, health and entertainment. The tourism market is analyzed in a separate chapter.

1. Primary Market, 0 – 60 minute drive time the from project site, 2. Secondary Market, 60 – 100 minute drive time from the project site, 3. Tertiary Market or Tourism Market

This segmentation allows for better demand projections for the proposed performing arts center.

60-Minute Drive Time Market

Population

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 4%. Similar to the population the number of households is also projected to grow by 4.5% between 2015 and 2020. The following table summarizes the key demographics for the local market area. The median age in 2015 is 39 years compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 4. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 415,909 432,668 452,092 0.88% Households 169,733 176,843 185,005 0.91% Families 109,501 112,682 117,101 0.77% Average Household Size 2.38 2.37 2.37 Median Age 37.9 38.9 39.9 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 5. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Indicator 60 Minute Market Arkansas US Population 0.88% 0.70% 0.75% Households 0.91% 0.72% 0.77% Families 0.77% 0.57% 0.69% Owner HHs 0.91% 0.69% 0.70% Median Household Income 3.33% 3.12% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local residential population growing faster compared to the State of Arkansas and the U.S as a whole – all indicators show higher growth rates in comparison. Household Income growth is also above the State and National level numbers.

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Table 6. Demographics by Age Group – Local Market Area Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 27,031 26,599 27,214 5 - 9 26,366 26,904 27,001 10 - 14 26,636 26,442 28,426 15 - 19 27,720 26,948 28,005 20 - 24 27,570 29,231 27,851 25 - 34 57,035 58,710 58,433 35 - 44 51,874 53,962 57,409 45 - 54 57,046 54,367 53,325 55 - 64 51,675 56,415 58,818 65 - 74 34,298 42,548 50,202 75 - 84 20,508 21,485 25,569 85+ 8,150 9,056 9,841 Total 415,909 432,668 452,092 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Ethnicity & Education

Persons of Hispanic origin represent 6.2% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to increase to 7% by 2020.

Table 7. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 289,227 69.5% 294,673 68.1% 300,630 66.5% Black Alone 99,085 23.8% 105,809 24.5% 114,098 25.2% American Indian Alone 1,993 0.5% 2,187 0.5% 2,375 0.5% Asian Alone 5,087 1.2% 6,196 1.4% 7,498 1.7% Pacific Islander Alone 232 0.1% 253 0.1% 280 0.1% Some Other Race Alone 12,704 3.1% 14,452 3.3% 16,361 3.6% Two or More Races 7,580 1.8% 9,099 2.1% 10,849 2.4% Total 415,909 432,668 452,092 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 23,486 5.6% 27,030 6.2% 31,300 6.9% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Table 8. 2015 Population Age 25+ by Educational Attainment Education/Market Local Market Total 296,543 Less than 9th Grade 3.7% 9th - 12th Grade, No Diploma 8.8% High School Graduate 26.5% GED/Alternative Credential 5.4% Some College, No Degree 24.2% Associate Degree 7.0% Bachelor's Degree 15.3% Graduate/Professional Degree 9.2% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

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Household Income & Spending

The distribution of households by income shows that the majority of households are below the $50,000 income bracket. The number of households with an income up to $50,000 are estimated to decline over the next 5 years, the number of middle class households and high income households are estimated to increase over the same period of time. The numbers do not account for inflation or increased cost of living. The following table shows the distribution of households in the market area into three main income brackets:

Table 9. Household Income - Summary Households by Income Disposable Income Income Brackets 2015 2020 2015 <$15,000 -$49,999 56.9% 50.5% 64.4% $50,000 - $99,999 28.7% 32.8% 27.3% $100,000> 14.3% 16.6% 8.3% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Roughly 64% of all households have a disposable income of less than $50,000. Median disposable household income in 2015 is estimate at $36,919; average disposable household income is at $47,489.

Table 10. Household Income - Summary Year 2015 2020 Median Household Income $41,788 $49,218 Average Household Income $57,004 $64,430 Per Capita Income $23,571 $26,628 Median Disposable Income $36,919 Average Disposable Income $47,489 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

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The following table shows household budget spending in categories showing the market potential for some main retail categories. The spending potential index (SPI) compares the likelihood of a household spending money in a certain category to the national average of 100. In all categories the spending is below the national average, A reason for this could be that a large part of the resident population is living on a fixed income (retirement).

Table 11. Household Spending - Summary Average Spent per Total HH Item HH Spending Percent of Total Index Total Expenditures $55,026.55 $9,731,059,919 100.0% 77 Food $6,622.50 $1,171,142,616 12.0% 78 Food at Home $4,109.47 $726,731,079 7.5% 79 Food Away from Home $2,513.03 $444,411,537 4.6% 76 Alcoholic Beverages $414.50 $73,301,448 0.8% 75 Housing $16,267.66 $2,876,821,061 29.6% 76 Shelter $12,190.46 $2,155,796,739 22.2% 74 Utilities, Fuel and Public Services $4,077.20 $721,024,322 7.4% 81 Household Operations $1,366.92 $241,730,917 2.5% 74 Housekeeping Supplies $573.20 $101,366,461 1.0% 79 Household Furnishings and Equipment $1,429.01 $252,710,309 2.6% 78 Apparel and Services $1,768.69 $312,780,605 3.2% 76 Transportation $8,390.78 $1,483,850,662 15.2% 79 Travel $1,412.55 $249,799,953 2.6% 72 Health Care $3,766.46 $666,072,017 6.8% 79 Entertainment and Recreation $2,536.55 $448,571,747 4.6% 77 Personal Care Products & Services $603.63 $106,748,059 1.1% 77 Education $1,045.56 $184,900,386 1.9% 69 Smoking Products $410.69 $72,628,245 0.7% 88 Miscellaneous $911.53 $161,197,594 1.7% 84 Support Payments/Cash Contribution/Gifts in Kind $1,921.60 $339,821,276 3.5% 77 Life/Other Insurance $362.60 $64,123,854 0.7% 79 Pensions and Social Security $5,222.10 $923,492,711 9.5% 74 Source: 2011 and 2012 Consumer Expenditure Surveys, Bureau of Labor Statistics, MFA

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Economic/Business Profile

Table 12. Businesses and Employment Market Segments 60-Minute Market Total Businesses: 22,552 Total Employees: 327,798 Total Residential Population: 432,668 Employee/Residential Population Ratio: 0.76:1 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census County Business Patterns; Dun & Bradstreet, Inc; ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015; MFA

Top three economic sectors: By Businesses:

1. Retail Trade 2. Other Services (except Public Administration) 3. Health Care & Social Assistance

By Employment:

1. Health Care & Social Assistance 2. Educational Services 3. Retail Trade

Table 13. Businesses and Employment by Economic Sector (NAICS Codes) Economic Sector by NAICS Codes Businesses Employees Number Percent Number Percent Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 94 0.4% 573 0.2% Mining 25 0.1% 442 0.1% Utilities 56 0.2% 1,774 0.5% Construction 1,820 8.1% 11,934 3.6% Manufacturing 576 2.6% 10,656 3.3% Wholesale Trade 814 3.6% 15,838 4.8% Retail Trade 3,391 15.0% 36,554 11.2% Transportation & Warehousing 486 2.2% 6,083 1.9% Information 425 1.9% 12,157 3.7% Finance & Insurance 1,842 8.2% 13,038 4.0% Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 1,224 5.4% 6,094 1.9% Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 1,919 8.5% 18,373 5.6% Management of Companies & Enterprises 24 0.1% 389 0.1% Administrative & Support & Waste Management & 912 4.0% 8,767 2.7% Remediation Services Educational Services 552 2.4% 37,861 11.6% Health Care & Social Assistance 2,032 9.0% 77,573 23.7% Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 336 1.5% 4,688 1.4% Accommodation & Food Services 1,456 6.5% 23,193 7.1% Other Services (except Public Administration) 3,041 13.5% 14,955 4.6% Public Administration 1,019 4.5% 24,821 7.6% Unclassified Establishments 507 2.2% 2,035 0.6% Total 22,552 100.0% 327,798 100.0% Source: Infogroup, ESRI, MFA

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Recreational Activities

The following two tables show participation potential for selected activities and attractions that are easy accessible in the project area, and household spending categories that relate to the recreational activities.

Table 14. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 19,656 5.8% 80 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 51,412 15.2% 89 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 28,346 8.4% 97 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 11,746 3.5% 85 Dined out in last 12 months 144,133 42.7% 95 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 44,276 13.1% 89 Attended horse races in last 12 months 8,070 2.4% 87 Attended a movie in last 6 months 189,742 56.3% 93 Went to museum in last 12 months 34,099 10.1% 78 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 10,470 3.1% 81 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 19,793 5.9% 107 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 26,641 7.9% 81 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 22,108 6.6% 94 Went to live theater in last 12 months 36,914 10.9% 87 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

The spending potential index (SPI) compares the likelihood of a household spending money in a certain category to the national average of 100, this market area is closer to the national average of the propensity to spend money for recreational activities. The can be attributed to more opportunities and higher income.

Table 15. Market Volume/Potential of Household Spending Spending Average Potential Amount Items Index Spent Annual Total Entertainment/Recreation Fees and Admissions 70 $451.09 $79,772,799 Admission to Movies, Theater, Opera, Ballet 71 $117.72 $20,817,846 Admission to Sporting Events, excluding trips 72 $47.71 $8,436,499 Fees for Participant Sports, excluding trips 71 $85.51 $15,122,286 Fees for Recreational Lessons 64 $78.11 $13,812,345 Membership Fees for Social/Recreation/Civic Clubs 71 $121.57 $21,498,497 Source: 2011 and 2012 Consumer Expenditure Surveys, Bureau of Labor Statistics, MFA

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60- 100 Minute Drive Time Market

Population

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 3%. Similar to the population the number of households is also projected to grow by 3% between 2015 and 2020. The following table summarizes the key demographics for the local market area. The median age is 37 years compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 16. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 627,204 646,622 667,729 0.64% Households 246,834 255,975 264,784 0.68% Families 167,414 171,422 175,981 0.53% Average Household Size 2.48 2.47 2.47 Median Age 36.5 37.3 38.3 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 17. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 60 – 100 Minute Indicator Market Arkansas US Population 0.64% 0.70% 0.75% Households 0.68% 0.72% 0.77% Families 0.53% 0.57% 0.69% Owner HHs 0.67% 0.69% 0.70% Median Household Income 2.73% 3.12% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The residential population growing slower compared to the State of Arkansas and the U.S as a whole – all indicators show lower growth rates in comparison. Household Income growth is also above the National level numbers.

Table 18. Demographics by Age Group – Local Market Area Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 42,986 41,966 42,372 5 - 9 42,912 42,672 42,296 10 - 14 43,300 42,576 44,477 15 - 19 42,991 41,657 43,057 20 - 24 46,335 45,862 43,618 25 - 34 82,991 89,695 88,206 35 - 44 80,302 81,125 85,923 45 - 54 89,643 84,066 80,403 55 - 64 74,502 82,208 86,274 65 - 74 45,785 56,704 66,253 75 - 84 25,511 27,189 32,937 85+ 9,946 10,902 11,913 Total 627,204 646,622 667,729 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Ethnicity & Education

Persons of Hispanic origin represent 5.5% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to increase to 6% by 2020.

Table 19. Population by Race Race 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 458,814 73.2% 465,820 72.0% 472,074 70.7% Black Alone 131,372 20.9% 136,634 21.1% 143,202 21.4% American Indian Alone 3,095 0.5% 3,615 0.6% 4,125 0.6% Asian Alone 7,831 1.2% 9,487 1.5% 11,546 1.7% Pacific Islander Alone 269 0.0% 318 0.0% 377 0.1% Some Other Race Alone 13,856 2.2% 16,069 2.5% 18,555 2.8% Two or More Races 11,967 1.9% 14,679 2.3% 17,850 2.7% Total 627,204 646,622 667,729 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 29,786 4.7% 34,643 5.4% 40,513 6.1% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Table 20. 2015 Population Age 25+ by Educational Attainment Education/Market Local Market Total 431,889 Less than 9th Grade 3.9% 9th - 12th Grade, No Diploma 8.4% High School Graduate 27.8% GED/Alternative Credential 5.5% Some College, No Degree 23.5% Associate Degree 6.5% Bachelor's Degree 15.7% Graduate/Professional Degree 8.8% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Household Income & Spending

The distribution of households by income shows that the majority of households are below the $50,000 income bracket. The number of households with an income up to $50,000 is estimated to decline over the next 5 years, the number of middle class households and high income households are estimated to increase over the same period of time. The numbers do not account for inflation or increased cost of living. The following table shows the distribution of households in the market area into three main income brackets:

Table 21. Household Income - Summary Households by Income Disposable Income Income Brackets 2015 2020 2015 <$15,000 -$49,999 52.8% 46.8% 60.2% $50,000 - $99,999 29.9% 33.9% 29.2% $100,000> 17.2% 19.3% 10.5% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Roughly 60% of all households have a disposable income of less than $50,000. Median disposable household income in 2015 is estimate at $39,768; average disposable household income is at $52,001.

Table 22. Household Income - Summary Year 2015 2020 Median Household Income $41,788 $49,218 Average Household Income $57,004 $64,430 Per Capita Income $23,571 $26,628 Median Disposable Income $39,768 Average Disposable Income $52,001 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

The following table shows household budget spending in categories showing the market potential for some main retail categories. The spending potential index (SPI) compares the likelihood of a household spending money in a certain category to the national average of 100. In all categories the spending is below the national average, A reason for this could be that a large part of the resident population is living on a fixed income (retirement).

Table 23. Household Spending - Summary Average Spent per Total HH Item HH Spending Percent of Total Index Total Expenditures $61,610.20 $15,770,670,809 100.0% 86 Food $7,399.34 $1,894,046,708 12.0% 87 Food at Home $4,594.11 $1,175,976,750 7.5% 88 Food Away from Home $2,805.23 $718,069,958 4.6% 85 Alcoholic Beverages $454.96 $116,457,905 0.7% 82 Housing $18,000.56 $4,607,693,200 29.2% 84 Shelter $13,419.70 $3,435,108,915 21.8% 82 Utilities, Fuel and Public Services $4,580.85 $1,172,584,285 7.4% 91 Household Operations $1,529.71 $391,566,843 2.5% 83 Housekeeping Supplies $642.95 $164,579,268 1.0% 89 Household Furnishings and Equipment $1,604.49 $410,708,368 2.6% 87 Apparel and Services $1,975.56 $505,693,058 3.2% 85 Transportation $9,472.28 $2,424,666,297 15.4% 90 Travel $1,587.96 $406,478,843 2.6% 81 Health Care $4,238.52 $1,084,954,996 6.9% 89 Entertainment and Recreation $2,861.95 $732,586,988 4.6% 86 Personal Care Products & Services $669.91 $171,480,186 1.1% 86 Education $1,170.33 $299,575,623 1.9% 77 Smoking Products $461.61 $118,161,317 0.7% 99 Miscellaneous $1,030.18 $263,700,133 1.7% 95 Support Payments/Cash Contribution/Gifts in Kind $2,155.88 $551,850,252 3.5% 86 Life/Other Insurance $417.47 $106,862,195 0.7% 90 Pensions and Social Security $5,936.55 $1,519,608,627 9.6% 84 Source: 2011 and 2012 Consumer Expenditure Surveys, Bureau of Labor Statistics, MFA

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Economic/Business Profile

Table 24. Businesses and Employment Market Segments 60-Minute Market Total Businesses: 25,042 Total Employees: 273,489 Total Residential Population: 646,622 Employee/Residential Population Ratio: 0.42:1 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census County Business Patterns; Dun & Bradstreet, Inc; ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015; MFA

Top three economic sectors: By Businesses:

1. Retail Trade 2. Other Services (except Public Administration) 3. Construction

By Employment:

1. Retail Trade 2. Manufacturing 3. Health Care & Social Assistance

Table 25. Businesses and Employment by Economic Sector (NAICS Codes) Economic Sector by NAICS Codes Businesses Employees Number Percent Number Percent Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 248 1.0% 968 0.4% Mining 34 0.1% 349 0.1% Utilities 88 0.4% 1,339 0.5% Construction 2,046 8.2% 13,819 5.1% Manufacturing 758 3.0% 27,386 10.0% Wholesale Trade 1,057 4.2% 14,082 5.1% Retail Trade 4,035 16.1% 38,993 14.3% Transportation & Warehousing 662 2.6% 8,954 3.3% Information 377 1.5% 9,128 3.3% Finance & Insurance 1,975 7.9% 8,832 3.2% Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 1,377 5.5% 6,765 2.5% Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 1,635 6.5% 13,377 4.9% Management of Companies & Enterprises 25 0.1% 905 0.3% Administrative & Support & Waste Management & 911 3.6% 7,601 2.8% Remediation Services Educational Services 692 2.8% 25,849 9.5% Health Care & Social Assistance 1,807 7.2% 26,223 9.6% Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 361 1.4% 3,329 1.2% Accommodation & Food Services 1,525 6.1% 24,529 9.0% Other Services (except Public Administration) 3,646 14.6% 15,958 5.8% Public Administration 1,162 4.6% 23,483 8.6% Unclassified Establishments 621 2.5% 1,620 0.6% Total 25,042 100.0% 273,489 100.0% Source: Infogroup, ESRI, MFA

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Recreational Activities

The following two table show participation potential for selected activities and attractions that are easy accessible in the project area, and household spending categories that relate to the recreational activities

Table 26. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 28,953 5.8% 80 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 76,253 15.4% 90 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 40,262 8.1% 94 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 16,486 3.3% 81 Dined out in last 12 months 214,472 43.3% 96 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 63,260 12.8% 87 Attended horse races in last 12 months 11,672 2.4% 85 Attended a movie in last 6 months 281,216 56.8% 94 Went to museum in last 12 months 52,556 10.6% 82 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 15,096 3.0% 80 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 30,046 6.1% 110 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 40,208 8.1% 83 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 33,364 6.7% 96 Went to live theater in last 12 months 53,421 10.8% 86 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

Table 27. Market Volume/Potential of Household Spending Spending Average Potential Amount Items Index Spent Annual Total Entertainment/Recreation Fees and Admissions 70 $451.09 $79,772,799 Admission to Movies, Theater, Opera, Ballet 71 $117.72 $20,817,846 Admission to Sporting Events, excluding trips 72 $47.71 $8,436,499 Fees for Participant Sports, excluding trips 71 $85.51 $15,122,286 Fees for Recreational Lessons 64 $78.11 $13,812,345 Membership Fees for Social/Recreation/Civic Clubs 71 $121.57 $21,498,497 Source: 2011 and 2012 Consumer Expenditure Surveys, Bureau of Labor Statistics, MFA

The spending potential index (SPI) compares the likelihood of a household spending money in a certain category to the national average of 100, this market area is closer to the national average of the propensity to spend money for recreational activities. This can be attributed to more opportunities and higher income.

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Ar k a n s a s To u r i s m

Summary

Arkansas Visitor Volume  The state’s market share in 2013 remained the same at 1.23% compared to 1.26% in 2012, which ranks it 32nd among the 50 states for domestic overnight trips.

 In 2013, the number of day trips taken to or within Arkansas grew by 12% compared to the year earlier, to 26.8 million trips. The increase in day trips was largely attributable to more leisure travel, which improved from 20.7 to 23.4 million trips).

Arkansas Visitor Profile  In 2013, Arkansas residents accounted for 28% of overnight leisure trips to Arkansas, about the same as in 2012 and 2011.

 Neighboring states remained the primary out-of-state markets for visitors, including: o Texas (12%) o Missouri (7%) o Oklahoma (5%) o Louisiana (3%) o Tennessee (3%)

 In addition, Arkansas welcomed sizeable numbers of tourists coming from more distant markets such as California, Illinois, Florida and New York.

 The top out-of-state urban markets in 2013 from contiguous states were: o Springfield, MO o Dallas/Fort Worth o Shreveport o Kansas City o Houston o Memphis

 Arkansas itself remained the primary source of day trippers within the state in 2013, accounting for over half (55%) of these visitors.

 A high proportion of out-of-state contiguous state day travelers came from: o Missouri o Oklahoma o Texas o Louisiana

 The seasonal distribution of leisure trips to Arkansas in 2013 was very similar to 2012 – peaking in spring and summer.  In 2013, the average length of the overall trip and the time spent in Arkansas by overnight leisure visitors diminished somewhat.  The typical leisure travel party to Arkansas in 2013 remained at 3.3 individuals – 2.3 adults and one child.  Compared to the US, Arkansas leisure trips are more apt to include visits to parks and landmarks/ historic sites, fishing and other outdoor pursuits like camping, hiking, hunting and less likely to include shopping, bars/nightclubs or fine dining.

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Top 10 State of Visitor Origin

The Economic Impact of Travel in Arkansas The Arkansas tourism industry experienced a year of growth in 2014. This is based on the 2013 U.S. Travel Tourism Expenditure Impact Model. Travel expenditures increased from $6,267,310,088 in 2013 to $6,698,501,022 in 2014 (6.88%). The number of visitors increased from 24,610,236 in 2013 to 25,885,046 (5.18%).

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Table 28. Arkansas Tourism Market Indicator 2013 2014 Change Visitors Garland County 2,607,708 2,744,415 136,707 Average Trip Expenditures $483.85 $509.47 $25.62 Average Number of Nights Stayed 3.7 3.6 -0.1 Median Age 57.3 55.3 -2.0 Travel Party Composition by Age Under 18 21.2% 20.8% -0.4% 18-24 5.6% 5.0% -0.6% 25-34 9.7% 8.5% -1.2% 35-44 11.7% 11.3% -0.4% 45-54 17.1% 17.2% 0.1% 55-64 20.3% 21.7% 1.4% 65+ 14.4% 15.5% 1.1% Purpose of Trip Visit Family/Friends 38% 42% 4.0% Sightseeing 26% 16% -10.0% Recreation 14% 11% -3.0% Business 6% 10% 4.0% Entertainment 8% 9% 1.0% Family Events 5% 7% 2.0% Other 2% 5% 3.0% Activities Participated Sightseeing 89.0% 76.0% -13.0% Shopping 58.0% 61.0% 3.0% Attractions 57.0% 48.0% -9.0% Historic Sites 33.0% 25.0% -8.0% Museums 26.0% 20.0% -6.0% Hiking 10.0% 11.0% 1.0% Live Performance 14.0% 10.0% -4.0% Arts/Crafts Show 12.0% 9.0% -3.0% Fishing/Hunting 5.0% 9.0% 4.0% Camping 12.0% 7.0% -5.0% Water Sports 14.0% 6.0% -8.0% Antiques 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% Bird Watching 6.0% 4.0% -2.0% Festivals 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% Sport Events 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% Golf 3.0% 2.0% -1.0% Source: Arkansas Department of Parks and Tourism, US Travel Association

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Demand Projections

Estimating the demand potential from each of these experiences is central to this analysis.

Evaluation of Potential Audience

To define the potential of audience/visitors for the proposed performing arts center MFA completed a detailed demographic analysis and identified trends utilizing the data discussed above, as well as:

 Propensity to attend various types of out-of-home entertainment  Projections of above demographics and visitor characteristics in order to determine sustainability of market over time

MFA also assessed the potential audience for audience/visitors for the proposed performing arts center by utilizing accepted entertainment research metrics and indices such as the Survey of Public Participation in the Arts from the National Endowment for the Arts (NEA) and the National Arts Index (NAI) by Americans for the Arts, plus lifestyle data bases for activities relevant to attending entertainment and cultural events. Other national and regional indices were applied to population and visitor data to further refine characteristics such as participation, frequency, desirability of program types, etc.

Arts Attendance Summary

Key trends from the National Endowment for the Arts’ Survey of Public Participation in the Arts (SPPA) 2012 reveal:

 A little bit more than fifty percent of all American adults attended a live visual or performing arts activity in 2012.

 Since 2002, adult attendance rates have declined for a core set of arts activities tracked consistently by the National Endowment for the Arts (NEA).

 Thirty-three percent of adults attended one of those selected activities in 2012, compared with 39 percent a decade earlier.

 The declines were steepest for non-Hispanic whites, adults from 35 to 54 years of age, and higher educated adults (at least “some” college education).

 The overall drop in arts attendance from 2008 to 2012 was less severe than from 2002 to 2008.

 African Americans and Hispanics, for example, showed no declines from 2008 to 2012.

 Older Americans emerge as the only demographic group to have experienced increases in attending live visual and performing arts activities over the last decade.

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National Trends in Performing Arts

Between 2008 and 2012, national rates of attendance at visual and performing arts activities dropped slightly, remaining below 2002 levels. In 2012, one in three U.S. adults (33 percent, or about 78 million) visited an art museum or gallery or attended at least one of various types of performing arts events.

Source NEA, MFA

Table 29. U.S. Adults Who Attended at Least One Arts Event or Activity, by General Category (2012) Category Percent Movies 59% Visual Arts 39% Performing Arts 37% Source NEA, MFA

A closer look at individual types of arts activity shows that theater attendance (musical and non-musical play-going) declined significantly since 2008. So did the share of adults visiting art museums or galleries or attending crafts fairs or visual arts festivals. Notably, non-white and Hispanic groups upheld their arts attendance rates, and even showed increases for some activities. And more adults, from a variety of demographic groups, went to the movies in 2012 than in 2008.

Table 30. U.S. Adults Who Attended a Performing Arts Activity, by Type (Excluding Musical and Non- Musical Plays): 2002, 2008, and 2012 Category/Year 2002 2008 2012 Classical Music 11.6% 9.3% 8.8% Jazz 10.8% 7.8% 8.1% Dance Other than Ballet 6.3% 5.2% 5.6% Latin, Spanish, or Salsa Music NA 4.9% 5.1% Ballet 3.9% 2.9% 2.8% Opera 3.2% 2.1% 2.1% Source NEA, MFA

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Since 2008, attendance rates have declined for both of the following theatrical events:

Musical plays (15.2 percent of adults nationwide, or 35.7 million, attended at least one event in the 2012 survey year)

Non-musical plays (8.3 percent, or 19.5 million adults nationwide, attended at least one event in the 2012 survey year)

Table 31. Percent of U.S. Adults Who Attended a Musical and/or Non-Musical Play: 2002, 2008, and 2012 Category/Year 2002 2008 2012 Change 2008 -2012 Musical Play 17.1% 16.7% 15.2% -1.5% Non-Musical Play 12.3% 9.4% 8.3% -1.1% Source NEA, MFA

Attending Arts Events Motivations & Barriers

The most common barriers for adults, who were interested in a specific event, but did not go are:

 For nearly 60 percent of people with children under age six, the lack of time was the greatest single barrier to attendance. This finding could inspire arts providers to develop more family-friendly program options.  Some noted that the location was too difficult to get to. This was especially a problem for retirees, older adults, and adults with physical disabilities.  For 22 percent of those who wanted to attend but chose not to the reason was not having someone to go with.

Motivations include:

 Top reasons to attend the arts (performances and exhibits) include socializing with friends or family members (73 percent); learning new things (64 percent); and supporting the community (51 percent).  Despite similar household incomes and education, people who call themselves middle-class were more likely to attend the arts than those who identified themselves as working class.  Life stages—pursuing higher education, marriage, child-rearing, and retirement—are often more predictive than age alone, as a factor in attending the arts. For example, parents with young children under age six more often cited socializing with family or friends, learning new things and celebrating their cultural heritage when they attended performances accompanied by their children.

Visual and Performing Arts Attendance

Adults are included if they did at least one of the following activities in the preceding 12 months:

 39 percent of adults attended a visual arts event or activity

Types of attendance included:  24 percent of adults did tour a park, monument, building, or neighborhood for historic or design purposes,  22 percent attended a visual arts festival or a crafts fair, and  21 percent visited an art museum or gallery.

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 37 percent of adults attended a live performing arts event

Event types included:  21 percent of adults did attend an outdoor performing arts festivals  18 percent of adults did attend a musical or non-musical plays  17 percent of adults did attend a classical music, jazz, or Latin, Spanish, or salsa music event/performance  7 percent of adults did attend a dance of any kind evet/performance, and  2 percent of adults went to the Opera

Table 32. Demographic Distribution and Percentage of U.S. Adults Attending at least one Benchmark Activity in the past 12 Months: 2012 Distribution of Rate of Indicator In Millions In Percent Attendees Attendance All Adults 235.0 100.0% 33.4% By Age Group 18–24 30.4 13.0% 11.7% 30.2% 25–34 41.0 17.4% 17.1% 32.6% 35–44 39.6 16.9% 16.3% 32.4% 45–54 43.7 18.6% 19.2% 34.4% 55–64 38.3 16.3% 18.6% 38.0% 65–74 23.8 10.1% 11.1% 36.6% 75+ 18.1 7.7% 6.0% 25.9% By Education Level Grade school 9.9 4.2% 0.8% 6.5% Some high school 19.0 8.1% 2.2% 9.1% High school graduate 70.9 30.2% 18.0% 19.9% Some college 68.7 29.2% 29.6% 33.8% College graduate 43.0 18.3% 29.7% 54.0% Graduate School 23.5 10.0% 19.7% 65.6% By Household Income Less than $20K 40.9 17.4% 8.5% 16.3% $20K to $50K 76.0 32.3% 24.1% 24.9% $50K to $75K 43.9 18.7% 20.4% 36.4% $75K to $100K 27.6 11.7% 14.8% 41.5% $100K to $150K 27.1 11.5% 16.9% 48.8% $150K and over Total 19.6 8.3% 15.4% 62.3% By Ethnicity Hispanic 35 14.9% 9.4% 21.1% White 155.7 66.3% 75.4% 37.9% African American 26.8 11.4% 8.5% 25.0% Other Total 17.5 7.4% 6.6% 29.8% By Gender Male 113.1 48.1% 43.9% 30.4% Female 121.9 51.9% 56.1% 36.1% Source NEA, MFA

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By applying the “rate of attendance’ by age group from table 32 to the market area and visitor age group distribution, we can estimate the market potential for a performing arts center. Table 33 show the market potential for the local and regional markets while table 35 shows the market for visitor/tourism market by age group.

Thess tables define the market size, not the likely attendance for an actual Performing Arts Center in Hot Springs. The individuals in these tables already go to many performing arts venues including ones in Little Rock, local performance spaces throughout Arkansas and even to Dallas and the casino performance spaces in the region.

Our conclusion is that the market is large and it’s likely that there are more than enough to reasonably support a Hot Springs Performing Arts Center.

Demand Potential – Local Market

Table 33. Hot Springs Local Markets Potential Attendees by Age Group Year 2015 2020 Change Market 60-100 60-100 60-100 0-60 Minutes Minutes 0-60 Minutes Minutes 0-60 Minutes Minutes Age Group 18–24 12,273 19,177 11,931 18,610 -342 -566 25–34 19,139 29,241 19,049 28,755 -90 -485 35–44 17,484 26,285 18,601 27,839 1,117 1,555 45–54 18,702 28,919 18,344 27,659 -358 -1,260 55–64 21,438 31,239 22,351 32,784 913 1,545 65–74 15,573 20,754 18,374 24,249 2,801 3,495 75+ 7,910 9,866 9,171 11,616 1,261 1,751 Total 112,519 165,479 117,821 171,512 5,301 6,033 Source NEA, ESRI, MFA

Table 34. Hot Springs Local Markets Potential Attendees by Ethnicity Year 2015 2020 Change Market 60-100 60-100 60-100 0-60 Minutes Minutes 0-60 Minutes Minutes 0-60 Minutes Minutes Age Group Hispanic 5,703 7,310 6,604 8,548 901 1,239 White 111,681 176,546 113,939 178,916 2,258 2,370 African American 26,452 34,159 28,525 35,801 2,072 1,642 Other 8,940 12,085 10,426 14,402 1,486 2,317 Total 152,777 230,099 159,494 237,667 6,717 7,568 Source NEA, ESRI, MFA

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Demand Potential – Visitor (Tourism) Market

Table 35. Hot Springs Tourism Markets Potential Attendees 2014 Visitors to Garland County 2,744,415 Age Group Percent Number Potential Attendees 18–24 5.0% 137,221 41,441 25–34 8.5% 233,275 76,048 35–44 11.3% 310,119 100,479 45–54 17.2% 472,039 162,382 55–64 21.7% 595,538 226,304 65+ 15.5% 425,384 132,933 Total 2,173,577 739,586 Source: Arkansas Department of Parks and Tourism, US Travel Association, NEA, MFA

Table 36. Summary Market Potential Age Group/Market Area 0-60 Minutes 60-100 Minutes Visitors/Tourism 18–24 12,273 19,177 41,441 25–34 19,139 29,241 76,048 35–44 17,484 26,285 100,479 45–54 18,702 28,919 162,382 55–64 21,438 31,239 226,304 65+ 23,483 30,620 132,933 Total 112,519 165,479 739,587 Source: Arkansas Department of Parks and Tourism, US Travel Association, NEA, MFA

To further refine the attendance estimates for proposed performing arts center MFA applied market share estimates to each of the three market potentials.

Table 37. Market Share Estimates Market Share 25% 15% 10% Age Group/Market Area 0-60 Minutes 60-100 Minutes Visitors/Tourism 18–24 3,068 2,877 4,144 25–34 4,785 4,386 7,605 35–44 4,371 3,943 10,048 45–54 4,676 4,338 16,238 55–64 5,360 4,686 22,630 65+ 5,871 4,593 13,293 Total 28,130 24,822 73,959 Source: Arkansas Department of Parks and Tourism, US Travel Association, NEA, MFA

It is likely that some attendees will visit the performing arts center more than once during the year; the number of annual visits depends on age and distance. Older age groups are more likely to visit a performing arts center and the population living in close proximity to the center is also more likely to visit the arts center several times during a year. Based on this approach MFA estimates the universe for visitation/attendance as follows.

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Table 38. Visits per Year/Total Annual Attendance Estimates Visits per 0-60 Visits per 60-100 Visits per Age Group Year Minutes Year Minutes Year Visitors/Tourism 18–24 3 9,205 2 5,753 1 4,144 25–34 3 14,354 2 8,772 1 7,605 35–44 4 17,484 3 11,828 1 10,048 45–54 4 18,702 3 13,014 1 16,238 55–64 5 26,798 4 18,743 2 45,261 65+ 5 29,354 4 18,372 2 26,587 Total 115,896 76,483 109,882 Total Estimate PotentialAnnual Attendance/Visitors 302,261 Source: Arkansas Department of Parks and Tourism, US Travel Association, NEA, MFA

Based on this approach, it is estimated that the performing arts center could receive 300,000 annual visitors although it would likely be far lower as going to performances is based on many factors including choice, the money to purchase the experience, and availability on the night of the performance.

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T h e F u t u r e of Performing Arts

This chapter examines the future trends in performing arts and the implications for the proposed performing arts center

STEEP Analysis

The following bullet points summarize the STEEP (Sociological, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) factors affecting, or expected to affect, the performing arts sector. A STEEP analysis is a tool to evaluate various external factors impacting an industry sector, business or organization. The STEEP model encourages a step back to look at the big picture. It is a tool to enhance thinking about the wider issues that have an impact on the industry, business or service area as a whole, resulting in the following general trends:

Sociological  Patterns of employment - Part-time work, short-term contracts and self-employment have long been characteristics of the performing arts, and are becoming more pronounced.  The already high proportions of micro-enterprises that populate this industry continue to increase.  The human need to gather together for social experience continues, along with live performances, although technology, such as television and the ever growing presence of other computer-based technologies, mimics the sense of “being there”.  Much of the US’s population growth is and will be in minority groups that do not necessarily embrace mainstream or high culture.

Technological  Digitalization of content in combination with transmission through the Internet enhances possibilities for promotion and marketing among micro-enterprises.  Fragmentation in content and ease of its distribution may favor small venues.  Technology’s capabilities to capture live performance and reproduce it for transmission in HD and 3D may popularize some types of “high culture” – but this may not lead to live ticket sales.  Live Metropolitan Opera presentations shown in more than 1,000 cinemas is an example.  Digital presentation and transmission is in the hands of large media groups that will manage to their interests.  Our growing expectation of “experiences on-demand” - seeing what we want when we want to - which technology offers us, is a threat to all live experience production

Economic  Dependence of live performing arts on public funding, private sponsorship, and public service broadcasters is especially in jeopardy in these times.  Interestingly, the expecting funding drop from the corporate sector has not happened.  A tendency for public funding and private sponsorship to be directed towards more established and prestigious activities, i.e. towards ‘high culture’ or to community projects with allies in economic development.  In the US, there is still regional culture. High culture is not well supported in many metro areas and states in the US.  Public service broadcasters in many countries have become more commercial. “High culture” radio and TV outlets are in decline.  Despite the high channel count, there is very little live performance on cable or the internet.

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Environmental  At present, there are no distinctive or important environmental issues in the performing arts.  Recycling and renewable energy in an operational context can be strong marketing tools.

Political  Political environment - In many countries, strong political and social forces protect traditional culture, as well as an ethos of public support for the arts  These impulses are curbed, to some extent, by economic and financial pressures.  Some political movements have no interest in supporting many of the performing arts and wish to limit content in pop culture. These interests achieve influence only when in power.  Compared to other leading economies, support for traditional culture is weaker in the US, as our traditional culture is an amalgam of many cultures – often with parallel traditions and is less well defined.

Funding of Performing Arts

The funding prospects for the live performing arts are not good. The general implication is that the performing arts sector needs to look more to its customers, the private sector, or non-traditional sources of public funding (e.g. funding allocated for regeneration projects rather than cultural projects) to increase its overall funding levels. This trend is already visible in the way that major financial companies and other companies frequently sponsor ‘high culture’ events or theaters.

Such a trend is even more pronounced in the US, where commercial and private sponsors are the financial supporters of public broadcasting. Public funding is likely to become less important as a source of financial support.

The middle tier of non-profit arts organizations faces the biggest challenges, in particular opera companies, symphony orchestras, ballet companies and Theater groups serving small and medium-sized cities. The realities of ageing audiences, escalating costs, and static or even declining funding will force these organizations to rethink their primary mission, the audiences they want to reach, and their organizational structure.

More will decide to focus on their immediate community, using local talent to keep costs down while targeting programming aimed at encouraging participation by local audiences. These organizations do, however, have the advantage that they are often viewed by their communities as important civic assets. Thus, they may be able to generate sufficient public and private funding to sustain their operations.

Predictions about future demand, which are based on the above mentioned rationale regarding the segmentation of performing arts organizations, assume that current prominent trends will continue. Policy intervention could increase future demand for the arts and thus affect the balance between the different segments.

In this context, much will depend on how policymakers try to exploit the role that the audiovisual sector and cultural employment could play in employment generation and in developing a community of values.

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Operating Statement

If the three component facility we recommend: A 600-seat theater, a 250-seat theater, and a 1,000 capacity lawn amphitheater – along with a kitchen and service facilities for festivals and large events – we believe it would be filled with music and film festivals, the annual musical arts school for which Hot Springs is becoming known, performances, and events all year-round. We also expect that it is likely that this could fit on the site of the former Majestic Hotel in downtown Hot Springs where it would be well-used by the adjacent Arkansas science and arts school.

The following tables include key operating and programming assumptions for each of the facilities. As the festivals would use all of the facilities, they are treated separately after assumption tables for the other facilities. Following the assumption tables, is the actual preliminary operating statement. The statement includes most of the expense assumptions and illustrates that MFA projects that the facility would lose between a million dollars and $1.3 million annually over its first five years of operations and in the pre- opening year. While the loses are at their lowest in year five and are trending lower, we do not expect the losses to continue to decline substantially and the losses of the prior years as well as the initial capital costs of the development would need to be funded.

For these reasons we endorse the idea of a performing arts center in Hot Springs but foresee no realistic way for its development to be funded as it would not have a positive cash flow, would not be “profitable”, when completed and operating.

The key tables begin on the next page.

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Proposed 250-Seat Theater Programming Programming Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Performances & Events per Year Outdoor Cinema 50 50 100 100 100 Musical Performances 30 30 40 50 50 Children's Programs 25 25 30 30 30 Total 105 105 170 180 180 Average Show Attendance Attendance Cinema 100 100 100 100 100 Musical Performances 125 125 125 125 125 Other Programs 100 100 100 100 100 Attendance Cinema 5,000 5,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 Musical Performances 3,750 3,750 5,000 6,250 6,250 Children's Programs 2,500 2,500 3,000 3,000 3,000 Total 11,250 11,250 18,000 19,250 19,250 Average Show & Event Pricing Cinema $ 7.00 $ 7.00 $ 7.00 $ 7.00 $ 7.00 Musical Performances $ 20.00 $ 20.00 $ 20.00 $ 20.00 $ 20.00 Children's Programs $ 8.00 $ 8.00 $ 8.00 $ 8.00 $ 8.00 Annual Show & Event Revenue Cinema $ 35,000 $ 35,000 $ 70,000 $ 70,000 $ 70,000 Musical Performances $ 75,000 $ 75,000 $ 100,000 $ 125,000 $ 125,000 Children's Programs $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 24,000 $ 24,000 $ 24,000 Total $ 130,000 $ 130,000 $ 194,000 $ 219,000 $ 219,000 Average Food & Beverage Expenditures Cinema $ 5.00 $ 5.00 $ 5.00 $ 5.00 $ 5.00 Musical Performances $ 7.00 $ 7.00 $ 7.00 $ 7.00 $ 7.00 Children's Programs $ 5.00 $ 5.00 $ 5.00 $ 5.00 $ 5.00 Annual Food & Beverage Revenue Cinema $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 Musical Performances $ 26,250 $ 26,250 $ 35,000 $ 43,750 $ 43,750 Children's Programs $ 12,500 $ 12,500 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 Total $ 63,750 $ 63,750 $ 100,000 $ 108,750 $ 108,750 Source: MFA

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Proposed 600-Seat Theater Programming Programming Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Performances & Events per Year Cinema 50 50 100 100 100 Musical Performances 15 20 25 25 25 Other Programs 20 25 30 30 30 Total 85 95 155 155 155 Average Show Attendance Attendance Cinema 150 150 150 150 150 Musical Performances 250 250 250 250 250 Other Programs 200 200 200 200 200 Attendance Cinema 7,500 7,500 15,000 15,000 15,000 Musical Performances 3,750 5,000 6,250 6,250 6,250 Other Programs 4,000 5,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 Total 15,250 17,500 27,250 27,250 27,250 Average Show & Event Pricing Cinema $ 7 $ 7 $ 7 $ 7 $ 7 Musical Performances $ 30 $ 30 $ 30 $ 30 $ 30 Other Programs $ 12 $ 12 $ 12 $ 12 $ 12 Annual Show & Event Revenue Cinema $ 52,500 $ 52,500 $ 105,000 $ 105,000 $ 105,000 Musical Performances $ 112,500 $ 150,000 $ 187,500 $ 187,500 $ 187,500 Other Programs $ 48,000 $ 60,000 $ 72,000 $ 72,000 $ 72,000 Total $ 213,000 $ 262,500 $ 364,500 $ 364,500 $ 364,500 Average Food & Beverage Expenditures Cinema $ 6.00 $ 6.00 $ 6.00 $ 6.00 $ 6.00 Musical Performances $ 9.00 $ 9.00 $ 9.00 $ 9.00 $ 9.00 Other Programs $ 2.50 $ 2.50 $ 2.50 $ 2.50 $ 2.50 Annual Food & Beverage Revenue Cinema $ 45,000 $ 45,000 $ 90,000 $ 90,000 $ 90,000 Musical Performances $ 33,750 $ 45,000 $ 56,250 $ 56,250 $ 56,250 Other Programs $ 10,000 $ 12,500 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 Total $ 88,750 $ 102,500 $ 161,250 $ 161,250 $ 161,250 Source: MFA

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Proposed Amphitheater Programming Programming Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Performances & Events per Year Outdoor Cinema 20 25 30 30 30 Musical Performances 8 10 12 12 12 Other Programs 20 25 30 30 30 Total 48 60 72 72 72 Average Show Attendance Attendance Cinema 350 350 350 350 350 Musical Performances 800 800 800 800 800 Other Programs 400 400 400 400 400 Attendance Cinema 7,000 8,750 10,500 10,500 10,500 Musical Performances 6,400 8,000 9,600 9,600 9,600 Other Programs 8,000 10,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 Total 21,400 26,750 32,100 32,100 32,100 Average Show & Event Pricing Cinema $ 7 $ 7 $ 7 $ 7 $ 7 Musical Performances $ 25 $ 25 $ 25 $ 25 $ 25 Other Programs $ 12 $ 12 $ 12 $ 12 $ 12 Annual Show & Event Revenue Cinema $ 49,000 $ 61,250 $ 73,500 $ 73,500 $ 73,500 Musical Performances $ 160,000 $ 200,000 $ 240,000 $ 240,000 $ 240,000 Other Programs $ 96,000 $ 120,000 $ 144,000 $ 144,000 $ 144,000 Total $ 305,000 $ 381,250 $ 457,500 $ 457,500 $ 457,500 Average Food & Beverage Expenditures Cinema $ 6.00 $ 6.00 $ 6.00 $ 6.00 $ 6.00 Musical Performances $ 8.00 $ 8.00 $ 8.00 $ 8.00 $ 8.00 Other Programs $ 2.50 $ 2.50 $ 2.50 $ 2.50 $ 2.50 Annual Food & Beverage Revenue Cinema $ 42,000 $ 52,500 $ 63,000 $ 63,000 $ 63,000 Musical Performances $ 51,200 $ 64,000 $ 76,800 $ 76,800 $ 76,800 Other Programs $ 20,000 $ 25,000 $ 30,000 $ 30,000 $ 30,000 Total $ 113,200 $ 141,500 $ 169,800 $ 169,800 $ 169,800 Source: MFA

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Proposed Festival Programming Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Festival Events (Uses all three spaces) 1 2 2 3 3 Average Attendance 4,000 6,000 7,500 7,000 7,000 Total Attendance 4,000 12,000 15,000 21,000 21,000 Average Pricing $ 30.00 $ 30.00 $ 32.00 $ 34.00 $ 36.00 Festival Event Revenue $ 120,000 $ 360,000 $ 480,000 $ 714,000 $ 756,000 Average Food & Beverage Expenditures $ 16.00 $ 17.00 $ 18.00 $ 19.00 $ 20.00 Food & Beverage Revenue $ 64,000 $ 204,000 $ 270,000 $ 399,000 $ 420,000 Source: MFA

Total Attendance & Revenues: All Venues Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Total Attendance 51,900 67,500 92,350 99,600 99,600 Total Events Cinema 120 125 230 230 230 Musical Performances 53 60 77 87 87 Other Programs 65 75 90 90 90 Total All Programs 238 260 397 407 407

Non- Cinema Events 129 157 189 210 210 Performance Related Revenue 631,500 985,000 1,247,500 1,506,500 1,548,500

Total Performance & Event Revenue $ 768,000 $ 1,133,750 $ 1,496,000 $ 1,755,000 $ 1,797,000 Total Food & Beverage Revenue $ 329,700 $ 511,750 $ 701,050 $ 838,800 $ 859,800 Potential Sponsorship Revenue $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 75,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 Total All Revenue $ 1,147,700 $ 1,695,500 $ 2,272,050 $ 2,693,800 $ 2,756,800

Source: MFA

Note that the projected peak attendance year, with close to 100,000 people well below the possible 300,000 estimated in an earlier analysis.

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Preliminary Operating Statement for Proposed Hot Springs Performing Arts Center Key Categories Assumptions Pre-Opening Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Event Food, Event Food, Event Food, Event Food, Event Food, Revenue Beverage and Revenue Beverage and Revenue Beverage and Revenue Beverage and Revenue Beverage and Merchandise Merchandise Merchandise Merchandise Merchandise Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue

Inflation Index - assumes "0" for now - 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 $ 1 Revenue by Facility 250-Seat Theater (SF) 12,000 $ 130,000 $ 63,750 $ 130,000 $ 63,750 $ 194,000 $ 100,000 $ 219,000 $ 108,750 $ 219,000 $ 108,750 600-Seat Theater (SF) 26,000 $ 213,000 $ 88,750 $ 262,500 $ 102,500 $ 364,500 $ 161,250 $ 364,500 $ 161,250 $ 364,500 $ 161,250 Downtown Amphitheater (SF) 30,000 $ 305,000 $ 113,200 $ 381,250 $ 141,500 $ 457,500 $ 169,800 $ 457,500 $ 169,800 $ 457,500 $ 169,800 Festival Events (Uses all three spaces) $ 120,000 $ 64,000 $ 360,000 $ 204,000 $ 480,000 $ 270,000 $ 714,000 $ 399,000 $ 756,000 $ 420,000 $ 768,000 $ 329,700 $ 1,133,750 $ 511,750 $ 1,496,000 $ 701,050 $ 1,755,000 $ 838,800 $1,797,000 $ 859,800 Sponsorship $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 75,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 Total SF (Preliminary) Total All Revenue 68,000 $1,147,700 $1,695,500 $2,272,050 $2,693,800 $ 2,756,800

Expenses by Category Food, Beverage & Merchandise 63.0% $207,711 $322,403 $441,662 $528,444 $ 541,674 F & B Expense Subtotal $207,711 $322,403 $441,662 $528,444 $541,674 Payroll including Benefits Executive Director $122,000 $122,000 $122,000 $122,000 $122,000 $122,000 $122,000 Assistant to Executive Director $36,600 $0 $36,600 $36,600 $36,600 $36,600 $36,600 Assistant Director (2) $60,000 $60,000 $60,000 $60,000 $120,000 $120,000 $120,000 CFO $73,200 $73,200 $73,200 $73,200 $73,200 $73,200 $73,200 Controller $61,000 $61,000 $61,000 $61,000 $61,000 $61,000 $61,000 Facilities Director $61,000 $61,000 $61,000 $61,000 $61,000 $61,000 $61,000 Assistant Facilities Director (2) $45,000 $45,000 $45,000 $45,000 $90,000 $90,000 $90,000 Development Director $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 Assistant Development Director $45,000 $0 $0 $0 $45,000 $45,000 $45,000 Marketing Director $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 Box Office Director $75,000 $0 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 Assistant Marketing Director $45,000 $0 $0 $0 $45,000 $45,000 $45,000 Office Staff (2) $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $60,000 $60,000 $60,000 Box Office Staff (4) Part Time $20,000 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $80,000 Facilities Person (2) $30,000 $0 $30,000 $60,000 $60,000 $60,000 $60,000 Payroll Subtotal $602,200 $763,800 $813,800 $1,058,800 $1,078,800 $1,078,800 Expense per Event Cleaning $100 $23,800 $26,000 $39,700 $40,700 $40,700 Cinema Fees (Percent of Revenue) 85% $116,025 $126,438 $211,225 $211,225 $ 211,225 Light & Sound (Avg non-cinema events) $200 $25,800 $31,400 $37,800 $42,000 $42,000 Stage Labor (Avg non-cinema events) $400 $ 51,600 $ 62,800 $ 75,600 $ 84,000 $ 84,000 Presented Show Talent Expenses % of Performance Related Revenue 35% $221,025 $344,750 $436,625 $527,275 $541,975 Expense per Event Subtotal $0 $438,250 $591,388 $800,950 $905,200 $ 919,900 Undistributed Expenses Administration & General (of Total Revenue) 5% $0 $57,385 $84,775 $113,603 $134,690 $ 137,840 Marketing (of Total Revenue) Pre Opening 20% $229,540 $229,540 $254,325 $340,807.50 $269,380 $ 275,680 Utilities/Energy per SF $4 $272,000 $272,000 $272,000 $272,000 $272,000 $272,000 Maintenance SF $3.5 $238,000 $238,000 $238,000 $238,000 $238,000 $238,000 Insurance, Legal, Accounting $150,000 25% $37,500 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $ 150,000 Replacement Reserve (of Total Revenue) 5% 7% $0 $57,385 $84,775 $113,603 $188,566 $192,976 Taxes 0% $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $ - Undistributed Expenses Subtotal $777,040 $1,004,310 $1,083,875 $1,228,013 $1,252,636 $ 1,266,496 Total All Expenses $1,379,240 $2,414,071 $2,811,465 $3,529,424 $3,765,080 $3,806,870 Net Profit (Loss) -$1,379,240 -$1,266,371 -$1,115,965 -$1,257,374 -$1,071,280 -$1,050,070 Sources: MFA as well as data and interviews with other Performing Arts Centers Market & Feasibility Advisors LLC Page 54 www.mfallc.com Performing Arts Center, Market & Feasibility Study, Hot Springs, AR

Appendix: Comparable Community Profiles

Eureka Springs, AR

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Population 0-60 Minute Drive Time

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 1.2% per year. The number of households is also projected to grow at the same rate of 1.2% per year between 2015 and 2020. The following table summarizes the key demographics for Eureka Springs. The median age in 2015 is 36 years compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 39. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 290,106 305,806 324,822 1.21% Households 109,430 114,811 121,566 1.15% Families 76,206 79,117 83,250 1.02% Average Household Size 2.63 2.64 2.65 Owner Households 71,611 72,116 76,075 1.07% Renter Households 37,819 42,695 45,491 1.28% Median Age 35.6 36.3 36.9 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local population is growing at a higher percentage compared to Arkansas and the U.S population as a whole is estimated to grow. All other growth indicators for Eureka Springs are positive and above the growth rates of Arkansas with the exception of household income.

Table 40. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Indicator Eureka Springs Arkansas US Population 1.21% 0.70% 0.75% Households 1.15% 0.72% 0.77% Families 1.02% 0.57% 0.69% Owner HHs 1.07% 0.69% 0.70% Median Household Income 2.90% 3.12% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 41. Demographics by Age Group Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 22,481 22,645 23,755 5 - 9 22,081 22,457 23,240 10 - 14 21,112 21,950 23,600 15 - 19 19,510 19,285 21,029 20 - 24 17,661 19,157 18,245 25 - 34 39,775 42,224 44,079 35 - 44 37,359 38,318 41,999 45 - 54 39,121 38,469 37,289 55 - 64 32,555 36,634 39,526 65 - 74 21,604 26,430 30,775 75 - 84 12,081 12,999 15,588 85+ 4,764 5,236 5,695 Total 290,106 305,806 324,822 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Persons of Hispanic origin represent 21% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to increase to 23% by 2020.

Table 42. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 234,762 80.9% 239,330 78.3% 244,815 75.4% Black Alone 3,595 1.2% 4,663 1.5% 5,996 1.8% American Indian Alone 2,985 1.0% 3,360 1.1% 3,769 1.2% Asian Alone 6,044 2.1% 7,439 2.4% 9,119 2.8% Pacific Islander Alone 4,456 1.5% 6,420 2.1% 8,628 2.7% Some Other Race Alone 31,186 10.7% 36,132 11.8% 42,388 13.0% Two or More Races 7,078 2.4% 8,462 2.8% 10,105 3.1% Total 290,106 305,806 324,822 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 54,087 18.6% 62,571 20.5% 73,413 22.6% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Recreational Activities

The following table shows participation potential for selected activities with relation to performing arts.

Table 43. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 13,594 6.0% 82 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 35,359 15.6% 91 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 18,042 8.0% 92 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 8,199 3.6% 88 Dined out in last 12 months 98,407 43.4% 96 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 30,132 13.3% 90 Attended horse races in last 12 months 5,660 2.5% 90 Attended a movie in last 6 months 129,656 57.1% 95 Went to museum in last 12 months 24,024 10.6% 82 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 7,127 3.1% 82 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 13,450 5.9% 108 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 18,438 8.1% 83 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 15,519 6.8% 98 Went to live theater in last 12 months 25,212 11.1% 89 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

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Population 60-100 Minute Drive Time

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 1.3% per year. The number of households is also projected to grow at the same rate of 1.3% per year between 2015 and 2020. The following table summarizes the key demographics for Eureka Springs. The median age in 2015 is 37 years compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 44. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 635,864 678,838 724,677 1.32% Households 248,611 265,147 282,904 1.30% Families 170,743 180,439 191,322 1.18% Average Household Size 2.50 2.51 2.51 Owner Households 170,474 177,572 188,743 1.23% Renter Households 78,137 87,575 94,161 1.46% Median Age 36.5 37.2 37.8 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local population is growing at a higher percentage compared to Arkansas and the U.S population as a whole. All other growth indicators for Eureka Springs are positive and above the growth rates of Arkansas with the exception of household income.

Table 45. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Indicator Eureka Springs Arkansas US Population 1.32% 0.70% 0.75% Households 1.30% 0.72% 0.77% Families 1.18% 0.57% 0.69% Owner HHs 1.23% 0.69% 0.70% Median Household Income 2.90% 3.12% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 46. Demographics by Age Group Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 42,865 43,798 46,153 5 - 9 43,985 44,622 46,543 10 - 14 44,180 45,336 48,656 15 - 19 44,961 45,891 49,227 20 - 24 45,761 49,459 48,506 25 - 34 83,999 91,279 95,906 35 - 44 81,790 85,618 93,208 45 - 54 85,316 85,888 85,314 55 - 64 72,984 81,052 87,446 65 - 74 51,033 62,310 71,135 75 - 84 28,465 31,525 38,780 85+ 10,525 12,060 13,803 Total 635,864 678,838 724,677 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Persons of Hispanic origin represent 6% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to increase to 7.5% by 2020.

Table 47. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 575,345 90.5% 603,086 88.8% 630,312 87.0% Black Alone 8,672 1.4% 12,060 1.8% 16,303 2.2% American Indian Alone 9,307 1.5% 10,086 1.5% 10,892 1.5% Asian Alone 9,497 1.5% 12,731 1.9% 16,580 2.3% Pacific Islander Alone 1,368 0.2% 1,748 0.3% 2,236 0.3% Some Other Race Alone 16,395 2.6% 20,271 3.0% 25,152 3.5% Two or More Races 15,280 2.4% 18,856 2.8% 23,202 3.2% Total 635,864 678,838 724,677 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 35,098 5.5% 43,637 6.4% 54,652 7.5% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Recreational Activities

The following table shows participation potential for selected activities with relation to performing arts.

Table 48. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 30,521 5.9% 80 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 85,339 16.4% 96 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 43,411 8.4% 96 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 18,167 3.5% 85 Dined out in last 12 months 243,808 46.9% 104 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 69,837 13.4% 91 Attended horse races in last 12 months 12,115 2.3% 84 Attended a movie in last 6 months 305,310 58.7% 97 Went to museum in last 12 months 57,836 11.1% 86 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 16,241 3.1% 82 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 32,477 6.2% 114 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 44,375 8.5% 88 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 36,548 7.0% 101 Went to live theater in last 12 months 59,311 11.4% 91 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

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Santa Fe, NM

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Population 0-30 Minute Drive Time

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 0.5% per year. The number of households is also projected to grow but at a higher rate of 0.7% per year between 2015 and 2020 indicating a trend towards single households. The following table summarizes the key demographics for Santa Fe. The median age in 2015 is 44 years compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 49. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 117,082 119,845 123,177 0.55% Households 50,933 52,791 54,779 0.74% Families 28,848 29,388 30,165 0.52% Average Household Size 2.25 2.23 2.21 Owner Households 33,947 34,988 36,316 0.75% Renter Households 16,986 17,803 18,463 0.73% Median Age 42.7 44.0 44.5 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local population is growing at a higher percentage compared to New Mexico but at a lower percentage compared the U.S population as a whole. All other growth indicators for Santa Fe are positive and above the growth rates of New Mexico with the exception of household income.

Table 50. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Indicator Santa Fe New Mexico US Population 0.55% 0.46% 0.75% Households 0.74% 0.50% 0.77% Families 0.52% 0.34% 0.69% Owner HHs 0.75% 0.52% 0.70% Median Household Income 1.87% 2.64% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 51. Demographics by Age Group Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 6,804 6,513 6,596 5 - 9 6,640 6,671 6,584 10 - 14 6,781 6,646 6,946 15 - 19 6,573 6,374 6,307 20 - 24 6,239 6,896 6,627 25 - 34 14,042 13,857 14,906 35 - 44 14,989 14,437 14,305 45 - 54 17,453 16,111 15,029 55 - 64 19,397 19,963 19,544 65 - 74 10,933 14,320 16,657 75 - 84 5,241 5,844 7,259 85+ 1,990 2,213 2,418 Total 117,082 119,845 123,177 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Persons of Hispanic origin represent 54% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to increase to 55% by 2020.

Table 52. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 88,538 75.6% 89,278 74.5% 91,010 73.9% Black Alone 1,045 0.9% 1,226 1.0% 1,431 1.2% American Indian Alone 3,472 3.0% 3,758 3.1% 4,036 3.3% Asian Alone 1,398 1.2% 1,553 1.3% 1,742 1.4% Pacific Islander Alone 84 0.1% 121 0.1% 164 0.1% Some Other Race Alone 18,364 15.7% 19,377 16.2% 20,004 16.2% Two or More Races 4,180 3.6% 4,532 3.8% 4,790 3.9% Total 117,082 119,845 123,177 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 61,799 52.8% 64,566 53.9% 67,554 54.8% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Recreational Activities

The following table shows participation potential for selected activities with relation to performing arts.

Table 53. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 8,681 9.0% 123 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 16,638 17.3% 101 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 8,138 8.5% 98 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 4,350 4.5% 111 Dined out in last 12 months 44,609 46.4% 103 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 14,083 14.6% 99 Attended horse races in last 12 months 2,772 2.9% 104 Attended a movie in last 6 months 58,994 61.3% 102 Went to museum in last 12 months 13,753 14.3% 111 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 4,669 4.9% 127 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 5,199 5.4% 98 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 9,896 10.3% 105 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 6,745 7.0% 100 Went to live theater in last 12 months 13,779 14.3% 114 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

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Population 30-50 Minute Drive time

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 0.2% per year. The number of households is also projected to grow but at a slightly higher rate of 0.3% per year between 2015 and 2020 indicating a trend towards more single households. The following table summarizes the key demographics for Santa Fe. The median age in 2015 is 41 years compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 54. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 74,465 74,619 75,292 0.18% Households 28,642 29,015 29,410 0.27% Families 19,421 19,405 19,496 0.09% Average Household Size 2.57 2.54 2.53 Owner Households 22,359 22,595 22,932 0.30% Renter Households 6,283 6,420 6,478 0.18% Median Age 40.1 41.3 42.5 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local population is growing at a lower percentage compared to New Mexico and the U.S population as a whole. All other growth indicators for Santa Fe are positive but below the growth rates of New Mexico including household income.

Table 55. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Indicator Santa Fe New Mexico US Population 0.18% 0.46% 0.75% Households 0.27% 0.50% 0.77% Families 0.09% 0.34% 0.69% Owner HHs 0.30% 0.52% 0.70% Median Household Income 1.94% 2.64% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 56. Demographics by Age Group Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 4,791 4,575 4,482 5 - 9 5,120 4,788 4,618 10 - 14 5,249 5,017 4,950 15 - 19 5,189 4,661 4,722 20 - 24 4,015 4,563 3,960 25 - 34 8,116 8,169 8,457 35 - 44 9,276 8,912 8,617 45 - 54 11,844 10,342 9,480 55 - 64 10,916 11,888 11,856 65 - 74 5,819 7,513 9,278 75 - 84 3,024 3,056 3,691 85+ 1,105 1,136 1,179 Total 74,465 74,619 75,292 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Persons of Hispanic origin represent 52% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to increase to 53% by 2020.

Table 57. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 46,327 62.2% 45,638 61.2% 45,429 60.3% Black Alone 376 0.5% 493 0.7% 644 0.9% American Indian Alone 10,432 14.0% 10,625 14.2% 10,776 14.3% Asian Alone 1,367 1.8% 1,510 2.0% 1,704 2.3% Pacific Islander Alone 44 0.1% 49 0.1% 57 0.1% Some Other Race Alone 13,734 18.4% 13,968 18.7% 14,195 18.9% Two or More Races 2,185 2.9% 2,337 3.1% 2,488 3.3% Total 74,465 74,619 75,292 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 38,119 51.2% 38,966 52.2% 40,157 53.3% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Recreational Activities

The following table shows participation potential for selected activities with relation to performing arts.

Table 58. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 4,205 7.3% 100 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 8,249 14.4% 84 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 4,390 7.6% 88 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 2,251 3.9% 96 Dined out in last 12 months 25,180 43.9% 97 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 7,857 13.7% 93 Attended horse races in last 12 months 1,376 2.4% 87 Attended a movie in last 6 months 32,511 56.6% 94 Went to museum in last 12 months 6,217 10.8% 84 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 1,735 3.0% 79 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 3,570 6.2% 113 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 4,478 7.8% 80 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 3,757 6.5% 94 Went to live theater in last 12 months 6,572 11.4% 91 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

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St. Augustine, FL

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Population 0-30 Minute Drive Time

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 2.5% per year. The number of households is also projected to grow at the same rate of 2.6% per year between 2015 and 2020. The following table summarizes the key demographics for St Augustine. The median age in 2015 is 43 years compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 59. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 105,331 116,549 132,151 2.54% Households 43,402 48,139 54,720 2.60% Families 28,032 30,655 34,541 2.42% Average Household Size 2.37 2.37 2.37 Owner Households 31,391 32,754 37,121 2.53% Renter Households 12,011 15,385 17,598 2.72% Median Age 42.2 42.9 43.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local population is growing at double the rate compared to Florida and an even higher rate compared the U.S population as a whole. All other growth indicators for St Augustine are positive and above the growth rates of Florida with the exception of household income.

Table 60. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Indicator St Augustine Florida US Population 2.54% 1.05% 0.75% Households 2.60% 1.05% 0.77% Families 2.42% 0.95% 0.69% Owner HHs 2.53% 0.91% 0.70% Median Household Income 2.55% 2.89% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 61. Demographics by Age Group Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 5,832 6,197 7,063 5 - 9 6,008 6,660 7,432 10 - 14 5,924 6,677 7,912 15 - 19 6,623 6,710 7,829 20 - 24 6,667 6,718 6,578 25 - 34 12,076 14,393 16,095 35 - 44 13,217 13,902 16,162 45 - 54 15,484 15,510 15,900 55 - 64 15,123 16,714 18,462 65 - 74 10,209 13,685 16,715 75 - 84 5,897 6,587 8,753 85+ 2,272 2,795 3,249 Total 105,331 116,549 132,151 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Persons of Hispanic origin represent 7% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to increase to 8% by 2020.

Table 62. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 91,821 87.2% 100,438 86.2% 112,488 85.1% Black Alone 8,209 7.8% 9,042 7.8% 10,172 7.7% American Indian Alone 335 0.3% 446 0.4% 579 0.4% Asian Alone 2,090 2.0% 2,857 2.5% 3,940 3.0% Pacific Islander Alone 94 0.1% 108 0.1% 130 0.1% Some Other Race Alone 924 0.9% 1,205 1.0% 1,594 1.2% Two or More Races 1,858 1.8% 2,453 2.1% 3,247 2.5% Total 105,331 116,549 132,151 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 5,856 5.6% 7,749 6.6% 10,237 7.7% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Recreational Activities

The following table shows participation potential for selected activities with relation to performing arts.

Table 63. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 6,830 7.3% 100 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 15,455 16.6% 97 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 7,719 8.3% 95 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 3,726 4.0% 98 Dined out in last 12 months 44,867 48.1% 107 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 13,266 14.2% 97 Attended horse races in last 12 months 2,359 2.5% 92 Attended a movie in last 6 months 56,248 60.4% 100 Went to museum in last 12 months 12,115 13.0% 101 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 3,631 3.9% 102 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 5,604 6.0% 110 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 8,954 9.6% 98 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 6,389 6.9% 98 Went to live theater in last 12 months 12,463 13.4% 107 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

Market & Feasibility Advisors LLC Page 67 www.mfallc.com Performing Arts Center, Market & Feasibility Study, Hot Springs, AR

Population 30-50 Minute Drive time

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 1.2% per year. The number of households is also projected to grow at the same rate of 1.2% per year between 2015 and 2020. The following table summarizes the key demographics for St Augustine. The median age in 2015 is 40 years compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 64. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 694,699 732,700 776,455 1.17% Households 281,064 296,498 314,373 1.18% Families 180,674 189,364 200,270 1.13% Average Household Size 2.41 2.42 2.42 Owner Households 180,480 178,890 189,420 1.15% Renter Households 100,584 117,608 124,953 1.22% Median Age 38.3 39.3 39.6 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local population is growing at a higher percentage compared to Florida and the U.S population as a whole. All other growth indicators for St Augustine are positive and above the growth rates of Florida except household income.

Table 65. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Indicator St Augustine Florida US Population 1.17% 1.05% 0.75% Households 1.18% 1.05% 0.77% Families 1.13% 0.95% 0.69% Owner HHs 1.15% 0.91% 0.70% Median Household Income 2.59% 2.89% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 66. Demographics by Age Group Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 42,857 42,415 44,640 5 - 9 42,176 43,455 44,048 10 - 14 43,186 43,467 46,253 15 - 19 44,806 44,476 45,554 20 - 24 48,343 48,955 48,198 25 - 34 96,414 105,099 111,649 35 - 44 92,086 91,161 98,310 45 - 54 102,420 100,718 95,799 55 - 64 86,366 95,712 102,298 65 - 74 53,214 69,577 82,397 75 - 84 30,143 33,048 41,351 85+ 12,687 14,618 15,959 Total 694,699 732,700 776,455 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Persons of Hispanic origin represent 10% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to increase to 12% by 2020.

Table 67. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 514,369 74.0% 533,992 72.9% 556,010 71.6% Black Alone 112,568 16.2% 119,213 16.3% 126,368 16.3% American Indian Alone 2,446 0.4% 2,659 0.4% 2,939 0.4% Asian Alone 30,422 4.4% 34,830 4.8% 40,458 5.2% Pacific Islander Alone 597 0.1% 666 0.1% 762 0.1% Some Other Race Alone 15,015 2.2% 17,974 2.5% 21,661 2.8% Two or More Races 19,282 2.8% 23,364 3.2% 28,257 3.6% Total 694,699 732,700 776,455 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 58,615 8.4% 72,743 9.9% 90,604 11.7% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Recreational Activities

The following table shows participation potential for selected activities with relation to performing arts.

Table 68. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 45,376 7.9% 107 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 105,151 18.2% 107 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 51,836 9.0% 103 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 23,469 4.1% 99 Dined out in last 12 months 278,890 48.3% 107 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 85,698 14.8% 101 Attended horse races in last 12 months 17,193 3.0% 108 Attended a movie in last 6 months 362,676 62.8% 104 Went to museum in last 12 months 79,142 13.7% 106 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 24,330 4.2% 110 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 34,475 6.0% 109 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 62,383 10.8% 111 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 41,930 7.3% 104 Went to live theater in last 12 months 80,913 14.0% 112 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

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Palm Springs, CA

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Population 0-30 Minute Drive Time

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 1% per year. The number of households is also projected to grow at the same rate of 1% per year between 2015 and 2020. The following table summarizes the key demographics for Palm Springs. The median age in 2015 is 45 years compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 69. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 308,642 320,382 338,337 1.10% Households 123,853 128,233 134,761 1.00% Families 74,497 77,188 81,209 1.02% Average Household Size 2.47 2.48 2.49 Owner Households 81,912 81,992 85,861 0.93% Renter Households 41,941 46,241 48,899 1.12% Median Age 43.5 45.0 45.5 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local population is growing at a higher rate compared to California and the U.S population as a whole. All other growth indicators for Palm Springs are positive and above the growth rates of California with the exception of household income.

Table 70. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Indicator Palm Springs California US Population 1.10% 0.73% 0.75% Households 1.00% 0.74% 0.77% Families 1.02% 0.76% 0.69% Owner HHs 0.93% 0.61% 0.70% Median Household Income 3.21% 3.36% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 71. Demographics by Age Group Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 18,368 18,443 19,395 5 - 9 18,619 17,842 18,404 10 - 14 19,393 18,423 18,637 15 - 19 19,552 18,268 17,937 20 - 24 16,610 19,536 17,697 25 - 34 32,690 35,567 40,976 35 - 44 34,335 32,222 34,288 45 - 54 40,388 38,894 35,230 55 - 64 38,920 42,307 45,224 65 - 74 36,105 41,792 47,937 75 - 84 24,517 26,275 30,643 85+ 9,145 10,813 11,968 Total 308,642 320,382 338,337 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Persons of Hispanic origin represent 45% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to increase to 47% by 2020.

Table 72. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 220,195 71.3% 223,715 69.8% 231,175 68.3% Black Alone 9,323 3.0% 9,855 3.1% 10,586 3.1% American Indian Alone 3,015 1.0% 3,160 1.0% 3,323 1.0% Asian Alone 10,288 3.3% 11,164 3.5% 12,723 3.8% Pacific Islander Alone 386 0.1% 415 0.1% 464 0.1% Some Other Race Alone 55,145 17.9% 60,654 18.9% 67,318 19.9% Two or More Races 10,289 3.3% 11,419 3.6% 12,747 3.8% Total 308,642 320,382 338,337 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 129,925 42.1% 142,460 44.5% 159,910 47.3% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Recreational Activities

The following table shows participation potential for selected activities with relation to performing arts.

Table 73. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 18,668 7.3% 100 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 36,770 14.5% 85 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 19,253 7.6% 87 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 10,873 4.3% 104 Dined out in last 12 months 111,546 43.8% 97 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 40,588 16.0% 108 Attended horse races in last 12 months 7,102 2.8% 101 Attended a movie in last 6 months 149,711 58.8% 98 Went to museum in last 12 months 29,547 11.6% 90 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 10,835 4.3% 111 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 12,327 4.8% 88 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 20,870 8.2% 84 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 15,088 5.9% 85 Went to live theater in last 12 months 34,148 13.4% 107 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

Market & Feasibility Advisors LLC Page 72 www.mfallc.com Performing Arts Center, Market & Feasibility Study, Hot Springs, AR

Population 30-50 Minute Drive time

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 1% per year. The number of households is also projected to grow at the same rate of 1% per year between 2015 and 2020. The following table summarizes the key demographics for St Augustine. The median age in 2015 is 35 years compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 74. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 294,032 308,604 325,512 1.07% Households 95,604 99,589 104,534 0.97% Families 70,903 73,995 77,793 1.01% Average Household Size 3.04 3.06 3.08 Owner Households 65,715 66,362 69,502 0.93% Renter Households 29,889 33,227 35,032 1.06% Median Age 34.2 34.8 35.7 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local population is growing at a higher percentage compared to California and the U.S population as a whole. All other growth indicators for Palm Springs are positive and above the growth rates of California except household income.

Table 75. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Indicator Palm Springs California US Population 1.07% 0.73% 0.75% Households 0.97% 0.74% 0.77% Families 1.01% 0.76% 0.69% Owner HHs 0.93% 0.61% 0.70% Median Household Income 3.04% 3.36% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 76. Demographics by Age Group Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 23,284 23,902 25,153 5 - 9 22,906 23,166 23,863 10 - 14 23,080 22,693 23,943 15 - 19 22,882 21,431 21,543 20 - 24 19,073 21,824 19,483 25 - 34 38,842 42,133 45,621 35 - 44 35,306 36,294 41,174 45 - 54 36,636 35,244 33,804 55 - 64 31,313 35,248 36,785 65 - 74 22,191 26,729 31,559 75 - 84 13,480 14,226 16,329 85+ 5,039 5,714 6,255 Total 294,032 308,604 325,512 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Persons of Hispanic origin represent 52% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to increase to 55% by 2020.

Table 77. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 190,731 64.9% 194,542 63.0% 200,239 61.5% Black Alone 10,099 3.4% 10,925 3.5% 11,741 3.6% American Indian Alone 3,888 1.3% 4,096 1.3% 4,277 1.3% Asian Alone 9,441 3.2% 10,748 3.5% 12,459 3.8% Pacific Islander Alone 457 0.2% 497 0.2% 552 0.2% Some Other Race Alone 67,697 23.0% 74,530 24.2% 81,471 25.0% Two or More Races 11,717 4.0% 13,266 4.3% 14,774 4.5% Total 294,032 308,604 325,512 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 145,055 49.3% 160,237 51.9% 178,313 54.8% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Recreational Activities

The following table shows participation potential for selected activities with relation to performing arts.

Table 78. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 14,350 6.4% 87 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 33,209 14.7% 86 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 17,603 7.8% 90 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 8,979 4.0% 97 Dined out in last 12 months 95,759 42.4% 94 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 34,321 15.2% 103 Attended horse races in last 12 months 6,195 2.7% 99 Attended a movie in last 6 months 131,406 58.2% 97 Went to museum in last 12 months 24,841 11.0% 85 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 7,939 3.5% 92 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 11,089 4.9% 89 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 18,636 8.3% 85 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 13,830 6.1% 88 Went to live theater in last 12 months 26,017 11.5% 92 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

Market & Feasibility Advisors LLC Page 74 www.mfallc.com Performing Arts Center, Market & Feasibility Study, Hot Springs, AR

Stockbridge, MA

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Population 0-30 Minute Drive Time

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to shrink by 0.15% per year. The number of households is also projected to shrink at the slightly lower rate of 0.1% per year between 2015 and 2020. The following table summarizes the key demographics for Stockbridge. The median age in 2015 is 47 years compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 79. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 84,501 83,976 83,357 -0.15% Households 36,839 37,041 36,879 -0.09% Families 21,733 21,671 21,482 -0.18% Average Household Size 2.22 2.19 2.19 Owner Households 24,426 24,611 24,441 -0.14% Renter Households 12,413 12,430 12,438 0.01% Median Age 45.5 46.9 47.8 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local population is projected to shrink compared to Massachusetts and the U.S population as a whole. All indicators for Stockbridge are negative with the exception of household income. However growth in household income is projected to be less compared to the State of Massachusetts.

Table 80. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Indicator Stockbridge Massachusetts US Population -0.15% 0.57% 0.75% Households -0.09% 0.62% 0.77% Families -0.18% 0.52% 0.69% Owner HHs -0.14% 0.57% 0.70% Median Household Income 2.16% 3.03% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 81. Demographics by Age Group Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 4,026 3,726 3,638 5 - 9 4,338 4,030 3,790 10 - 14 4,903 4,498 4,308 15 - 19 5,589 5,129 4,756 20 - 24 4,304 4,767 4,147 25 - 34 8,580 8,831 9,218 35 - 44 9,890 8,863 9,033 45 - 54 13,802 12,341 10,466 55 - 64 12,948 13,624 13,565 65 - 74 7,884 9,926 11,437 75 - 84 5,486 5,291 6,010 85+ 2,752 2,952 2,990 Total 84,501 83,976 83,357 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Persons of Hispanic origin represent 5% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to increase to 6% by 2020.

Table 82. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 77,252 91.4% 75,689 90.1% 73,875 88.6% Black Alone 2,909 3.4% 3,211 3.8% 3,531 4.2% American Indian Alone 162 0.2% 183 0.2% 194 0.2% Asian Alone 991 1.2% 1,178 1.4% 1,365 1.6% Pacific Islander Alone 13 0.0% 16 0.0% 19 0.0% Some Other Race Alone 1,282 1.5% 1,521 1.8% 1,843 2.2% Two or More Races 1,893 2.2% 2,179 2.6% 2,531 3.0% Total 84,501 83,976 83,357 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 3,499 4.1% 4,174 5.0% 5,054 6.1% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Recreational Activities

The following table shows participation potential for selected activities with relation to performing arts.

Table 83. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 5,886 8.6% 117 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 12,165 17.8% 104 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 6,012 8.8% 101 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 3,008 4.4% 107 Dined out in last 12 months 33,891 49.5% 110 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 10,307 15.0% 102 Attended horse races in last 12 months 1,981 2.9% 105 Attended a movie in last 6 months 41,267 60.2% 100 Went to museum in last 12 months 9,606 14.0% 108 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 2,985 4.4% 114 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 3,888 5.7% 103 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 7,755 11.3% 116 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 4,803 7.0% 100 Went to live theater in last 12 months 10,164 14.8% 118 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

Market & Feasibility Advisors LLC Page 77 www.mfallc.com Performing Arts Center, Market & Feasibility Study, Hot Springs, AR

Population 30-50 Minute Drive Time

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 0.2% per year. The number of households is also projected to grow at the same rate of 0.25% per year between 2015 and 2020. The following table summarizes the key demographics for Wisconsin Dells. The median age in 2015 is 43 years compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 84. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 288,235 291,311 294,119 0.19% Households 118,922 121,189 122,732 0.25% Families 73,735 74,647 75,317 0.18% Average Household Size 2.35 2.33 2.33 Owner Households 75,428 76,440 77,132 0.18% Renter Households 43,494 44,749 45,600 0.38% Median Age 41.4 42.6 43.3 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local population is growing at a lower rate compared to Massachusetts and the U.S population as a whole. All other growth indicators for Stockbridge are positive but below the growth rates of Massachusetts including household income.

Table 85. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Indicator Stockbridge Massachusetts US Population 0.19% 0.57% 0.75% Households 0.25% 0.62% 0.77% Families 0.18% 0.52% 0.69% Owner HHs 0.18% 0.57% 0.70% Median Household Income 2.39% 3.03% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 86. Demographics by Age Group Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 15,818 14,998 14,922 5 - 9 16,766 15,863 15,159 10 - 14 18,292 16,996 16,497 15 - 19 20,173 18,704 17,534 20 - 24 18,048 19,492 17,278 25 - 34 32,706 34,922 37,250 35 - 44 36,588 33,055 34,163 45 - 54 45,734 42,294 37,569 55 - 64 39,610 43,321 44,277 65 - 74 22,633 29,296 34,730 75 - 84 14,570 14,510 16,860 85+ 7,296 7,859 7,879 Total 288,235 291,311 294,119 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Persons of Hispanic origin represent 10% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to increase to 12% by 2020.

Table 87. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 240,334 83.4% 238,185 81.8% 235,461 80.1% Black Alone 25,323 8.8% 26,557 9.1% 27,869 9.5% American Indian Alone 712 0.2% 798 0.3% 894 0.3% Asian Alone 5,545 1.9% 6,510 2.2% 7,675 2.6% Pacific Islander Alone 76 0.0% 102 0.0% 126 0.0% Some Other Race Alone 9,635 3.3% 11,520 4.0% 13,297 4.5% Two or More Races 6,609 2.3% 7,639 2.6% 8,797 3.0% Total 288,235 291,311 294,119 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 24,465 8.5% 29,441 10.1% 35,168 12.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Recreational Activities

The following table shows participation potential for selected activities with relation to performing arts.

Table 88. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 18,394 7.9% 108 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 40,925 17.6% 103 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 20,821 9.0% 103 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 10,461 4.5% 110 Dined out in last 12 months 109,758 47.2% 105 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 36,434 15.7% 106 Attended horse races in last 12 months 6,761 2.9% 105 Attended a movie in last 6 months 139,838 60.1% 100 Went to museum in last 12 months 30,688 13.2% 102 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 8,993 3.9% 101 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 12,166 5.2% 95 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 25,145 10.8% 111 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 16,545 7.1% 102 Went to live theater in last 12 months 31,098 13.4% 107 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

Market & Feasibility Advisors LLC Page 79 www.mfallc.com Performing Arts Center, Market & Feasibility Study, Hot Springs, AR

Asheville, NC

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Population 0-30 Minute Drive Time

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 1.2% per year. The number of households is also projected to grow at the same rate of 1.3% per year between 2015 and 2020. The following table summarizes the key demographics for Asheville. The median age in 2015 is 42 years compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 89. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 257,757 273,839 290,649 1.20% Households 108,349 115,776 123,263 1.26% Families 66,456 70,277 74,400 1.15% Average Household Size 2.30 2.29 2.29 Owner Households 71,941 73,896 78,345 1.18% Renter Households 36,408 41,880 44,918 1.41% Median Age 40.7 42.0 43.1 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local population is growing at a slightly higher rate compared to North Carolina and the U.S population as a whole. All other growth indicators for Asheville are positive and above the growth rates of North Carolina including household income.

Table 90. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Indicator Asheville North Carolina US Population 1.20% 1.10% 0.75% Households 1.26% 1.13% 0.77% Families 1.15% 1.03% 0.69% Owner HHs 1.18% 1.05% 0.70% Median Household Income 3.16% 2.85% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 91. Demographics by Age Group Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 14,623 14,528 14,932 5 - 9 14,808 15,162 15,338 10 - 14 14,584 15,386 16,437 15 - 19 15,362 15,668 16,840 20 - 24 15,558 16,620 16,343 25 - 34 34,161 34,811 35,285 35 - 44 34,530 35,609 36,986 45 - 54 37,216 37,135 37,638 55 - 64 34,966 38,494 40,524 65 - 74 22,067 28,801 34,601 75 - 84 13,684 14,485 17,930 85+ 6,196 7,140 7,795 Total 257,757 273,839 290,649 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Persons of Hispanic origin represent 7% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to increase to 8% by 2020.

Table 92. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 225,269 87.4% 236,928 86.5% 248,868 85.6% Black Alone 16,227 6.3% 17,581 6.4% 18,713 6.4% American Indian Alone 1,035 0.4% 1,174 0.4% 1,302 0.4% Asian Alone 2,769 1.1% 3,624 1.3% 4,669 1.6% Pacific Islander Alone 322 0.1% 377 0.1% 439 0.2% Some Other Race Alone 6,778 2.6% 7,916 2.9% 9,189 3.2% Two or More Races 5,356 2.1% 6,239 2.3% 7,469 2.6% Total 257,757 273,839 290,649 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 15,553 6.0% 18,392 6.7% 22,128 7.6% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Recreational Activities

The following table shows participation potential for selected activities with relation to performing arts.

Table 93. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 16,686 7.6% 104 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 37,671 17.1% 100 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 18,814 8.6% 99 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 8,950 4.1% 100 Dined out in last 12 months 102,944 46.8% 104 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 30,481 13.9% 94 Attended horse races in last 12 months 5,614 2.6% 92 Attended a movie in last 6 months 129,741 59.0% 98 Went to museum in last 12 months 27,849 12.7% 98 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 8,460 3.8% 101 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 12,996 5.9% 108 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 20,796 9.5% 97 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 15,707 7.1% 102 Went to live theater in last 12 months 28,007 12.7% 102 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

Market & Feasibility Advisors LLC Page 82 www.mfallc.com Performing Arts Center, Market & Feasibility Study, Hot Springs, AR

Population 30-50 Minute Drive time

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 0.75% per year. The number of households is also projected to grow at the same rate of 0.75% per year between 2015 and 2020. The following table summarizes the key demographics for Asheville. The median age in 2015 is 47 years compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 94. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 200,393 208,067 216,019 0.75% Households 85,226 88,932 92,503 0.79% Families 56,406 58,375 60,455 0.70% Average Household Size 2.30 2.29 2.28 Owner Households 62,487 63,380 65,837 0.76% Renter Households 22,739 25,552 26,666 0.86% Median Age 45.2 46.6 48.3 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local population is growing at a lower percentage compared to North Carolina but at the same rate as the U.S population as a whole. All other growth indicators for Asheville are positive, but below the growth rates of North Carolina excluding household income.

Table 95. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Indicator Wisconsin Dells Wisconsin US Population 0.75% 1.10% 0.75% Households 0.79% 1.13% 0.77% Families 0.70% 1.03% 0.69% Owner HHs 0.76% 1.05% 0.70% Median Household Income 3.53% 2.85% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 96. Demographics by Age Group Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 10,595 10,343 10,154 5 - 9 10,970 11,056 10,852 10 - 14 11,507 11,313 12,140 15 - 19 11,419 10,958 11,563 20 - 24 9,708 10,357 9,418 25 - 34 20,639 21,728 21,188 35 - 44 24,663 23,971 23,799 45 - 54 28,496 27,761 27,398 55 - 64 29,120 31,014 32,379 65 - 74 22,912 27,535 31,264 75 - 84 14,500 15,302 18,435 85+ 5,862 6,730 7,429 Total 200,393 208,067 216,019 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Persons of Hispanic origin represent 7% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to increase to 8% by 2020.

Table 97. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 182,797 91.2% 188,074 90.4% 193,092 89.4% Black Alone 5,588 2.8% 6,317 3.0% 6,970 3.2% American Indian Alone 871 0.4% 1,049 0.5% 1,238 0.6% Asian Alone 1,212 0.6% 1,491 0.7% 1,818 0.8% Pacific Islander Alone 168 0.1% 152 0.1% 145 0.1% Some Other Race Alone 6,700 3.3% 7,347 3.5% 8,363 3.9% Two or More Races 3,056 1.5% 3,636 1.7% 4,393 2.0% Total 200,393 208,067 216,019 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 13,789 6.9% 15,052 7.2% 17,059 7.9% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Recreational Activities

The following table shows participation potential for selected activities with relation to performing arts.

Table 98. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 9,273 5.5% 75 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 22,826 13.5% 79 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 12,667 7.5% 86 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 5,769 3.4% 84 Dined out in last 12 months 73,530 43.6% 97 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 21,436 12.7% 86 Attended horse races in last 12 months 3,688 2.2% 79 Attended a movie in last 6 months 88,234 52.3% 87 Went to museum in last 12 months 15,686 9.3% 72 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 4,729 2.8% 73 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 10,275 6.1% 111 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 11,274 6.7% 68 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 10,698 6.3% 91 Went to live theater in last 12 months 18,453 10.9% 87 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

Market & Feasibility Advisors LLC Page 84 www.mfallc.com Performing Arts Center, Market & Feasibility Study, Hot Springs, AR

Saratoga Springs, NY

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Population 0-30 Minute Drive Time

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 0.7% per year. The number of households is also projected to grow slightly faster by 0.75% per year between 2015 and 2020. The following table summarizes the key demographics for Saratoga Springs. The median age in 2015 is 42 years compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 99. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 267,404 276,472 286,167 0.69% Households 108,030 112,922 117,297 0.76% Families 71,242 74,113 76,792 0.71% Average Household Size 2.43 2.40 2.40 Owner Households 77,059 79,577 82,220 0.66% Renter Households 30,971 33,344 35,077 1.02% Median Age 41.0 42.4 43.4 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local population is growing at a higher rate compared to the State of New York, but slightly lower than the U.S population as a whole. All other growth indicators for Saratoga Springs are positive and above the growth rates of New York State excluding household income.

Table 100. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Indicator Saratoga Springs New York State US Population 0.69% 0.42% 0.75% Households 0.76% 0.46% 0.77% Families 0.71% 0.39% 0.69% Owner HHs 0.66% 0.19% 0.70% Median Household Income 2.77% 2.84% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 101. Demographics by Age Group Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 14,888 14,186 14,050 5 - 9 16,849 15,928 15,340 10 - 14 17,805 17,800 17,551 15 - 19 17,507 17,383 17,809 20 - 24 14,739 16,457 15,543 25 - 34 30,241 31,618 33,624 35 - 44 38,202 34,531 34,927 45 - 54 43,913 43,383 39,923 55 - 64 35,654 39,713 42,965 65 - 74 20,309 26,945 32,273 75 - 84 11,845 12,441 15,625 85+ 5,452 6,086 6,536 Total 267,404 276,472 286,167 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Persons of Hispanic origin represent 3% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to increase to 4% by 2020.

Table 102. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 253,250 94.7% 257,961 93.3% 262,505 91.7% Black Alone 3,805 1.4% 4,862 1.8% 5,972 2.1% American Indian Alone 491 0.2% 626 0.2% 754 0.3% Asian Alone 4,219 1.6% 6,254 2.3% 8,815 3.1% Pacific Islander Alone 53 0.0% 65 0.0% 75 0.0% Some Other Race Alone 1,296 0.5% 1,674 0.6% 2,081 0.7% Two or More Races 4,291 1.6% 5,030 1.8% 5,965 2.1% Total 267,404 276,472 286,167 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 6,140 2.3% 8,237 3.0% 10,800 3.8% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Recreational Activities

The following table shows participation potential for selected activities with relation to performing arts.

Table 103. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 18,156 8.3% 114 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 41,334 19.0% 111 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 18,599 8.5% 98 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 9,771 4.5% 110 Dined out in last 12 months 110,748 50.8% 113 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 34,189 15.7% 107 Attended horse races in last 12 months 6,143 2.8% 102 Attended a movie in last 6 months 136,787 62.8% 104 Went to museum in last 12 months 31,202 14.3% 111 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 9,177 4.2% 110 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 13,883 6.4% 116 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 24,477 11.2% 115 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 16,286 7.5% 107 Went to live theater in last 12 months 30,689 14.1% 112 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

Market & Feasibility Advisors LLC Page 87 www.mfallc.com Performing Arts Center, Market & Feasibility Study, Hot Springs, AR

Population 30-50 Minute Drive time

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 0.2% per year. The number of households is also projected to grow at the same rate of 0.2% per year between 2015 and 2020. The following table summarizes the key demographics for Saratoga Springs. The median age in 2015 is 40 years compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 104. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 650,846 657,329 663,690 0.19% Households 269,058 273,061 276,289 0.24% Families 157,721 159,047 160,319 0.16% Average Household Size 2.31 2.30 2.29 Owner Households 160,265 159,862 160,302 0.05% Renter Households 108,793 113,199 115,987 0.49% Median Age 38.9 39.8 40.5 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local population is growing at a lower percentage compared to the State of New York and the U.S population as a whole. All other growth indicators for Saratoga Springs are positive, but below the growth rates of New York State including household income.

Table 105. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Indicator Saratoga Springs New York State US Population 0.19% 0.42% 0.75% Households 0.24% 0.46% 0.77% Families 0.16% 0.39% 0.69% Owner HHs 0.05% 0.19% 0.70% Median Household Income 2.31% 2.84% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 106. Demographics by Age Group Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 35,596 33,790 33,617 5 - 9 36,356 34,962 33,642 10 - 14 38,543 36,546 36,025 15 - 19 48,624 45,580 44,030 20 - 24 53,355 54,704 50,227 25 - 34 83,408 87,034 88,685 35 - 44 80,818 76,335 80,288 45 - 54 97,316 90,297 81,198 55 - 64 82,383 90,103 91,929 65 - 74 45,657 59,375 71,320 75 - 84 32,397 30,837 35,096 85+ 16,393 17,766 17,633 Total 650,846 657,329 663,690 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Persons of Hispanic origin represent 7% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to increase to 8% by 2020.

Table 107. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 528,728 81.2% 520,109 79.1% 509,607 76.8% Black Alone 64,955 10.0% 69,729 10.6% 74,894 11.3% American Indian Alone 1,787 0.3% 2,099 0.3% 2,373 0.4% Asian Alone 22,884 3.5% 27,380 4.2% 32,670 4.9% Pacific Islander Alone 255 0.0% 313 0.0% 358 0.1% Some Other Race Alone 14,175 2.2% 16,639 2.5% 19,306 2.9% Two or More Races 18,062 2.8% 21,060 3.2% 24,484 3.7% Total 650,846 657,329 663,690 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 35,241 5.4% 43,226 6.6% 52,067 7.8% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Recreational Activities

The following table shows participation potential for selected activities with relation to performing arts.

Table 108. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 43,142 8.2% 111 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 99,088 18.7% 110 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 47,648 9.0% 104 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 22,657 4.3% 105 Dined out in last 12 months 246,308 46.5% 103 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 77,630 14.7% 100 Attended horse races in last 12 months 15,076 2.8% 103 Attended a movie in last 6 months 323,925 61.2% 102 Went to museum in last 12 months 71,814 13.6% 105 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 23,538 4.4% 116 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 30,430 5.8% 105 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 57,858 10.9% 112 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 39,140 7.4% 106 Went to live theater in last 12 months 69,123 13.1% 104 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

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Mackinaw City/Mackinac Island, MI

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Population 0-60 Minute Drive Time

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 0.2% per year. The number of households is also projected to grow slightly faster by 0.3% per year between 2015 and 2020. The following table summarizes the key demographics for Mackinaw City/Mackinac Island. The median age in 2015 is 44 years compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 109. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 84,941 85,898 86,928 0.24% Households 33,342 34,103 34,683 0.34% Families 22,158 22,385 22,605 0.20% Average Household Size 2.37 2.34 2.33 Owner Households 25,187 25,356 25,769 0.32% Renter Households 8,155 8,747 8,914 0.38% Median Age 42.8 44.1 45.3 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local population is growing at a higher rate compared to Michigan, but lower than the U.S population as a whole. All other growth indicators for Mackinaw City/Mackinac Island are positive and above the growth rates of Michigan including household income.

Table 110. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Mackinaw Indicator City/Mackinac Island Michigan US Population 0.24% 0.15% 0.75% Households 0.34% 0.21% 0.77% Families 0.20% 0.06% 0.69% Owner HHs 0.32% 0.19% 0.70% Median Household Income 3.31% 2.79% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 111. Demographics by Age Group Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 4,294 4,093 4,002 5 - 9 4,866 4,442 4,304 10 - 14 5,309 4,944 4,817 15 - 19 5,603 5,235 5,211 20 - 24 4,796 5,338 4,818 25 - 34 9,244 9,705 9,906 35 - 44 10,815 10,139 10,033 45 - 54 13,326 12,150 11,156 55 - 64 12,239 13,509 13,601 65 - 74 7,899 9,502 11,334 75 - 84 4,612 4,721 5,549 85+ 1,938 2,120 2,197 Total 84,941 85,898 86,928 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Persons of Hispanic origin represent 2% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated remain almost unchanged by 2020.

Table 112. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 74,205 87.4% 74,122 86.3% 74,271 85.4% Black Alone 2,765 3.3% 3,240 3.8% 3,483 4.0% American Indian Alone 4,978 5.9% 5,008 5.8% 5,166 5.9% Asian Alone 416 0.5% 592 0.7% 744 0.9% Pacific Islander Alone 19 0.0% 19 0.0% 19 0.0% Some Other Race Alone 141 0.2% 169 0.2% 190 0.2% Two or More Races 2,417 2.8% 2,748 3.2% 3,055 3.5% Total 84,941 85,898 86,928 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 1,009 1.2% 1,436 1.7% 1,841 2.1% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Recreational Activities

The following table shows participation potential for selected activities with relation to performing arts.

Table 113. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 3,813 5.5% 75 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 10,363 14.9% 87 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 5,541 8.0% 92 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 2,328 3.4% 82 Dined out in last 12 months 29,981 43.2% 96 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 8,837 12.7% 86 Attended horse races in last 12 months 1,467 2.1% 77 Attended a movie in last 6 months 36,359 52.4% 87 Went to museum in last 12 months 6,381 9.2% 71 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 1,795 2.6% 68 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 4,216 6.1% 111 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 5,071 7.3% 75 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 4,692 6.8% 97 Went to live theater in last 12 months 6,999 10.1% 80 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

Market & Feasibility Advisors LLC Page 92 www.mfallc.com Performing Arts Center, Market & Feasibility Study, Hot Springs, AR

Population 60-100 Minute Drive time

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 0.2% per year. The number of households is also projected to grow at the slightly higher rate of 0.3% per year between 2015 and 2020. The following table summarizes the key demographics for Mackinaw City/Mackinac Island. The median age in 2015 is 48 years compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 114. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 121,920 122,053 123,100 0.17% Households 51,139 51,734 52,443 0.27% Families 34,551 34,554 34,802 0.14% Average Household Size 2.33 2.31 2.30 Owner Households 41,909 41,861 42,431 0.27% Renter Households 9,230 9,873 10,012 0.28% Median Age 46.2 47.8 49.2 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local population is growing at a slightly higher percentage compared to Michigan but less than the U.S population as a whole. All other growth indicators for Mackinaw City/Mackinac Island are positive, and above the growth rates of Michigan including household income.

Table 115. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Mackinaw Indicator City/Mackinac Island Michigan US Population 0.17% 0.15% 0.75% Households 0.27% 0.21% 0.77% Families 0.14% 0.06% 0.69% Owner HHs 0.27% 0.19% 0.70% Median Household Income 3.33% 2.79% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 116. Demographics by Age Group Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 6,097 5,752 5,559 5 - 9 6,912 6,356 6,122 10 - 14 7,591 6,997 6,941 15 - 19 7,349 6,785 6,749 20 - 24 5,455 6,104 5,354 25 - 34 11,276 11,824 11,983 35 - 44 14,035 12,687 12,889 45 - 54 19,717 17,622 15,557 55 - 64 19,044 20,928 20,839 65 - 74 13,791 15,942 18,527 75 - 84 7,828 8,021 9,381 85+ 2,825 3,035 3,199 Total 121,920 122,053 123,100 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Persons of Hispanic origin represent 2% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to remain almost unchanged at 2% by 2020.

Table 117. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 112,121 92.0% 111,386 91.3% 111,475 90.6% Black Alone 1,097 0.9% 1,386 1.1% 1,734 1.4% American Indian Alone 5,362 4.4% 5,374 4.4% 5,522 4.5% Asian Alone 400 0.3% 560 0.5% 712 0.6% Pacific Islander Alone 48 0.0% 52 0.0% 56 0.0% Some Other Race Alone 251 0.2% 318 0.3% 371 0.3% Two or More Races 2,641 2.2% 2,977 2.4% 3,230 2.6% Total 121,920 122,053 123,100 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 1,494 1.2% 1,940 1.6% 2,328 1.9% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Recreational Activities

The following table shows participation potential for selected activities with relation to performing arts.

Table 118. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 5,020 5.1% 70 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 14,940 15.1% 89 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 7,649 7.8% 89 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 3,208 3.3% 80 Dined out in last 12 months 44,471 45.1% 100 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 12,514 12.7% 86 Attended horse races in last 12 months 2,062 2.1% 76 Attended a movie in last 6 months 51,769 52.5% 87 Went to museum in last 12 months 8,670 8.8% 68 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 2,431 2.5% 64 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 6,688 6.8% 123 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 7,162 7.3% 74 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 7,389 7.5% 107 Went to live theater in last 12 months 9,587 9.7% 77 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

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Sedona, AZ

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Population 0-60 Minute Drive Time

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 0.7% per year. The number of households is also projected to grow slightly faster by 0.8% per year between 2015 and 2020. The following table summarizes the key demographics for Sedona. The median age in 2015 is 38 the same as the U.S. median age.

Table 119. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 125,873 131,548 136,076 0.68% Households 49,977 52,276 54,335 0.78% Families 29,158 30,227 31,242 0.66% Average Household Size 2.34 2.32 2.32 Owner Households 29,890 29,491 30,687 0.80% Renter Households 20,087 22,785 23,648 0.75% Median Age 37.2 37.8 38.8 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local population is growing at a lower rate compared to Arizona, and the U.S population as a whole. All other growth indicators for Sedona are positive but below the growth rates of Arizona excluding household income.

Table 120. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Indicator Sedona Arizona US Population 0.68% 1.12% 0.75% Households 0.78% 1.14% 0.77% Families 0.66% 1.06% 0.69% Owner HHs 0.80% 1.12% 0.70% Median Household Income 3.37% 2.79% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 121. Demographics by Age Group Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 6,935 6,769 6,947 5 - 9 6,695 6,552 6,498 10 - 14 6,610 6,575 6,633 15 - 19 10,858 11,157 11,202 20 - 24 13,659 14,296 13,752 25 - 34 15,232 16,728 17,594 35 - 44 13,043 12,971 13,562 45 - 54 16,146 14,617 13,619 55 - 64 16,976 18,610 18,485 65 - 74 11,187 14,010 16,877 75 - 84 6,097 6,607 8,111 85+ 2,436 2,657 2,797 Total 125,873 131,548 136,076 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Persons of Hispanic origin represent 18% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to increase to 19% by 2020.

Table 122. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 101,726 80.8% 104,700 79.6% 106,551 78.3% Black Alone 1,538 1.2% 2,188 1.7% 2,873 2.1% American Indian Alone 8,542 6.8% 8,731 6.6% 8,642 6.4% Asian Alone 1,724 1.4% 2,165 1.6% 2,676 2.0% Pacific Islander Alone 152 0.1% 177 0.1% 200 0.1% Some Other Race Alone 8,336 6.6% 9,125 6.9% 10,052 7.4% Two or More Races 3,853 3.1% 4,463 3.4% 5,081 3.7% Total 125,873 131,548 136,076 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 21,507 17.1% 23,514 17.9% 25,824 19.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Recreational Activities

The following table shows participation potential for selected activities with relation to performing arts.

Table 123. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 8,745 8.1% 111 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 18,874 17.5% 103 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 10,577 9.8% 113 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 5,185 4.8% 118 Dined out in last 12 months 51,428 47.7% 106 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 14,159 13.1% 89 Attended horse races in last 12 months 2,750 2.6% 92 Attended a movie in last 6 months 67,001 62.2% 103 Went to museum in last 12 months 13,975 13.0% 100 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 5,187 4.8% 126 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 6,322 5.9% 107 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 9,922 9.2% 94 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 8,252 7.7% 110 Went to live theater in last 12 months 14,744 13.7% 109 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

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Population 60-100 Minute Drive time

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 1% per year. The number of households is also projected to grow at the slightly higher rate of 1.1% per year between 2015 and 2020. The following table summarizes the key demographics for Sedona. The median age in 2015 is 43 years compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 124. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 261,721 275,877 290,578 1.04% Households 104,094 110,293 116,560 1.11% Families 70,674 74,275 78,112 1.01% Average Household Size 2.48 2.46 2.46 Owner Households 75,589 76,393 80,487 1.05% Renter Households 28,505 33,900 36,073 1.25% Median Age 41.9 43.3 43.9 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local population is growing at a slightly lower percentage compared to Arizona but more than the U.S population as a whole. All other growth indicators for Sedona are positive, but slightly below the growth rates of Arizona excluding household income.

Table 125. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Indicator Sedona Arizona US Population 1.04% 1.12% 0.75% Households 1.11% 1.14% 0.77% Families 1.01% 1.06% 0.69% Owner HHs 1.05% 1.12% 0.70% Median Household Income 3.02% 2.79% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 126. Demographics by Age Group Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 15,589 15,465 16,078 5 - 9 16,836 16,625 16,843 10 - 14 17,371 17,590 17,840 15 - 19 16,510 16,539 16,976 20 - 24 13,512 14,988 14,236 25 - 34 28,135 30,047 32,974 35 - 44 33,579 32,565 33,978 45 - 54 38,370 37,090 35,268 55 - 64 38,209 41,423 42,290 65 - 74 26,129 33,675 39,556 75 - 84 12,969 14,673 18,709 85+ 4,512 5,197 5,830 Total 261,721 275,877 290,578 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Persons of Hispanic origin represent 13% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to remain almost unchanged at 14% by 2020.

Table 127. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 230,605 88.1% 239,246 86.7% 247,434 85.2% Black Alone 3,235 1.2% 4,250 1.5% 5,483 1.9% American Indian Alone 4,943 1.9% 5,334 1.9% 5,685 2.0% Asian Alone 4,958 1.9% 6,220 2.3% 7,851 2.7% Pacific Islander Alone 359 0.1% 434 0.2% 521 0.2% Some Other Race Alone 10,656 4.1% 12,043 4.4% 13,661 4.7% Two or More Races 6,965 2.7% 8,350 3.0% 9,943 3.4% Total 261,721 275,877 290,578 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 31,472 12.0% 35,387 12.8% 40,249 13.9% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Recreational Activities

The following table shows participation potential for selected activities with relation to performing arts.

Table 128. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 16,974 7.8% 107 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 35,778 16.5% 97 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 17,368 8.0% 93 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 9,731 4.5% 110 Dined out in last 12 months 107,969 49.9% 111 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 33,403 15.4% 105 Attended horse races in last 12 months 6,040 2.8% 101 Attended a movie in last 6 months 132,522 61.3% 102 Went to museum in last 12 months 28,341 13.1% 101 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 9,622 4.4% 116 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 12,761 5.9% 107 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 21,057 9.7% 100 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 14,508 6.7% 96 Went to live theater in last 12 months 31,262 14.5% 115 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

Market & Feasibility Advisors LLC Page 99 www.mfallc.com Performing Arts Center, Market & Feasibility Study, Hot Springs, AR

Napa, CA

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Population 0-30 Minute Drive Time

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 0.7% per year. The number of households is also projected to grow by 0.7% per year between 2015 and 2020. The following table summarizes the key demographics for Napa. The median age in 2015 is 40 compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 129. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 262,910 269,098 278,117 0.66% Households 93,259 95,295 98,627 0.69% Families 63,127 64,565 66,865 0.70% Average Household Size 2.76 2.77 2.76 Owner Households 56,761 56,223 57,774 0.55% Renter Households 36,498 39,072 40,853 0.90% Median Age 38.4 39.1 39.7 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local population is growing at a lower rate compared to California and the U.S population as a whole. All other growth indicators for Napa are positive but below the growth rates of California excluding household income.

Table 130. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Indicator Napa California US Population 0.66% 0.73% 0.75% Households 0.69% 0.74% 0.77% Families 0.70% 0.76% 0.69% Owner HHs 0.55% 0.61% 0.70% Median Household Income 3.43% 3.36% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 131. Demographics by Age Group Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 16,884 16,492 16,837 5 - 9 17,288 16,982 16,691 10 - 14 17,703 17,557 17,523 15 - 19 18,274 16,855 16,580 20 - 24 16,203 17,519 15,407 25 - 34 33,672 35,587 38,306 35 - 44 34,785 33,236 35,902 45 - 54 38,608 36,165 33,931 55 - 64 33,655 36,408 36,502 65 - 74 18,596 24,375 29,592 75 - 84 11,432 11,763 14,445 85+ 5,811 6,160 6,400 Total 262,910 269,098 278,117 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Persons of Hispanic origin represent 31% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to increase to 34% by 2020.

Table 132. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 147,889 56.3% 147,580 54.8% 147,504 53.0% Black Alone 25,408 9.7% 24,899 9.3% 24,796 8.9% American Indian Alone 1,974 0.8% 2,017 0.7% 2,060 0.7% Asian Alone 34,729 13.2% 36,847 13.7% 40,174 14.4% Pacific Islander Alone 1,601 0.6% 1,661 0.6% 1,735 0.6% Some Other Race Alone 36,850 14.0% 40,370 15.0% 44,740 16.1% Two or More Races 14,460 5.5% 15,724 5.8% 17,108 6.2% Total 262,910 269,098 278,117 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 77,123 29.3% 84,361 31.3% 93,522 33.6% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Recreational Activities

The following table shows participation potential for selected activities with relation to performing arts.

Table 133. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 16,295 7.8% 107 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 35,766 17.2% 101 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 18,237 8.8% 101 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 9,191 4.4% 108 Dined out in last 12 months 94,485 45.5% 101 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 33,549 16.1% 110 Attended horse races in last 12 months 6,047 2.9% 105 Attended a movie in last 6 months 128,329 61.7% 102 Went to museum in last 12 months 28,978 13.9% 108 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 8,698 4.2% 109 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 9,489 4.6% 83 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 21,916 10.5% 108 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 13,261 6.4% 91 Went to live theater in last 12 months 27,496 13.2% 105 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

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Population 30-50 Minute Drive time

Between 2015 and 2020 the total population is projected to grow by 0.7% per year. The number of households is also projected to grow at the slightly higher rate of 0.8% per year between 2015 and 2020. The following table summarizes the key demographics for Napa. The median age in 2015 is 39 years compared to U.S. median age of 38.

Table 134. Demographics Overview Indicator 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 2015-2020 Population 1,001,447 1,024,227 1,062,321 0.73% Households 365,987 374,810 389,472 0.77% Families 243,811 249,931 259,893 0.78% Average Household Size 2.67 2.67 2.67 Owner Households 220,332 217,623 224,493 0.62% Renter Households 145,655 157,187 164,979 0.97% Median Age 37.8 38.6 39.1 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

The local population is growing at the same percentage compared to California and only slightly less than the U.S population as a whole. All other growth indicators for Napa are positive, and slightly above the growth rates of California excluding household income.

Table 135. Demographics Trend Comparison Annual Growth 2015-2020 Indicator Napa California US Population 0.73% 0.73% 0.75% Households 0.77% 0.74% 0.77% Families 0.78% 0.76% 0.69% Owner HHs 0.62% 0.61% 0.70% Median Household Income 2.97% 3.36% 2.66% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Table 136. Demographics by Age Group Age Group 2010 2015 2020 0 - 4 63,077 60,830 62,625 5 - 9 62,567 62,726 61,029 10 - 14 62,765 63,461 64,432 15 - 19 68,431 63,229 63,270 20 - 24 68,071 69,530 62,397 25 - 34 138,369 145,422 155,069 35 - 44 136,669 131,580 142,872 45 - 54 152,699 142,797 133,206 55 - 64 126,289 137,442 141,441 65 - 74 65,191 87,054 106,395 75 - 84 38,094 39,844 48,409 85+ 19,222 20,312 21,177 Total 1,001,447 1,024,227 1,062,321 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020

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Persons of Hispanic origin represent 27.5% of the population in 2015 compared to 17.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage is estimated to increase to 29% by 2020.

Table 137. Population by Ethnicity Ethnicity 2010 2015 2020 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White Alone 593,207 59.2% 591,391 57.7% 594,717 56.0% Black Alone 96,626 9.6% 95,180 9.3% 95,390 9.0% American Indian Alone 7,367 0.7% 7,547 0.7% 7,880 0.7% Asian Alone 119,106 11.9% 129,431 12.6% 143,086 13.5% Pacific Islander Alone 5,320 0.5% 5,626 0.5% 6,035 0.6% Some Other Race Alone 118,128 11.8% 127,529 12.5% 140,864 13.3% Two or More Races 61,693 6.2% 67,524 6.6% 74,349 7.0% Total 1,001,447 1,024,227 1,062,321 Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 261,303 26.1% 281,978 27.5% 311,909 29.4% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010, ESRI BIS forecasts for 2015 and 2020, MFA

Recreational Activities

The following table shows participation potential for selected activities with relation to performing arts.

Table 138. Market Participation Potential Activity Participants Percent MPI Went to art gallery in last 12 months 68,198 8.5% 116 Went to bar/night club in last 12 months 143,934 18.0% 105 Danced/went dancing last 12 months 74,213 9.3% 107 Attended dance performance in last 12 months 36,458 4.6% 111 Dined out in last 12 months 369,538 46.2% 103 Gambled at casino in last 12 months 128,939 16.1% 109 Attended horse races in last 12 months 25,088 3.1% 113 Attended a movie in last 6 months 500,817 62.6% 104 Went to museum in last 12 months 121,118 15.1% 117 Attended classical music/opera performance/12 months 34,621 4.3% 113 Attended country music performance in last 12 months 36,529 4.6% 83 Attended rock music performance in last 12 months 90,389 11.3% 116 Played musical instrument in last 12 months 56,257 7.0% 101 Went to live theater in last 12 months 110,487 13.8% 110 Source: GfK MRI, ESRI, MFA

An MPI (Market Potential Index) measures the relative likelihood of the adults or households to exhibit certain consumer behavior or purchasing patterns compared to the U.S. An MPI of 100 represents the U.S. average. These estimates are based on national propensities to use various products and services, and are applied to local demographic composition.

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General Limiting Conditions

Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the data contained in this study reflect the most accurate and timely information possible and they are believed to be reliable. This study is based on estimates, assumptions and other information developed by Market & Feasibility Advisors LLC from its independent research effort, general knowledge of the industry, and consultations with the Client and the Client’s representatives. No responsibility is assumed for inaccuracies in reporting by the Client, the Client’s agent, and representatives or any other data source used in preparing or presenting this study. No warranty or representation is made by Market & Feasibility Advisors LLC that any of the project values or results contained in this study will actually be achieved.

Possession of this study does not carry with it the right of publication thereof or to use the name of “Market & Feasibility Advisors LLC” in any manner. No abstracting, excerpting, or summarization of this study may be made. This study is not to be used in conjunction with any public or private offering of securities or other similar purpose where it may be relied upon to any degree by any person other than the client. This study may not be used for purposes other than that for which it is prepared. Exceptions to these restrictions may be permitted after obtaining prior written consent from Market & Feasibility Advisors LLC.

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This study is qualified in its entirety by, and should be considered in light of, these limitations, conditions and considerations.

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