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Ground-Level Ozone in the 21St Century: Future Trends, Impacts and Policy Implications

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Ground-Level Ozone in the 21St Century: Future Trends, Impacts and Policy Implications Ground-level ozone in the 21st century: future trends, impacts and policy implications Science Policy REPORT 15/08 October 2008 Price £39 web royalsociety.org Cover image: Sunrise over the River Ganges in Varanasi, India showing a sunny and polluted sky, characteristic of photochemical smog. Courtesy of Dr Mhairi Coyle, CEH Edinburgh. Ground-level ozone in the 21st century: future trends, impacts and policy implications RS Policy document 15/08 Issued: October 2008 RS1276 ISBN: 978-0-85403-713-1 © The Royal Society, 2008 Requests to reproduce all or part of this document should be submitted to: The Royal Society Science Policy 6–9 Carlton House Terrace London SW1Y 5AG Tel 44 (0)20 7451 2500 Email [email protected] Web royalsociety.org Design by Franziska Hinz, London Copyedited and Typeset by Techset Composition Limited Ground-level ozone in the 21st century: future trends, impacts and policy implications Contents Membership of working group vii Executive summary ix 1 Introduction 1 1.1 What is ground-level ozone and why does it matter? 2 1.2 Sources of ozone emissions and drivers of production now and in the future 2 1.3 Approaches to controlling ozone 3 1.4 Conduct of the study 4 2 The ground-level ozone policy context 5 2.1 Meeting the challenge – the current state of play 6 2.2 The effects of controls to date 7 2.3 International shipping and aviation 9 2.4 The role of science in meeting the ozone policy challenge 9 2.5 Conclusions 9 3 Ozone in the troposphere: processes of ozone production and destruction 11 3.1 Introduction 11 3.2 The lifetime and atmospheric budget of tropospheric ozone 11 3.3 Ozone atmospheric chemistry 11 3.4 Surface ozone destruction processes – dry deposition to the land and ocean 17 3.5 Effects of weather and topography on ground-level ozone 18 3.6 Trends in ground-level ozone 20 3.7 Conclusions 21 4 Natural and anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursor compounds 23 4.1 Introduction 23 4.2 Sources of ozone precursors 23 4.3 Future emissions analysis 23 4.4 Gaps and uncertainties 39 4.5 Conclusions 39 5 Model projections of future ground-level ozone at global, regional and urban scales 41 5.1 Introduction 41 5.2 Global modelling 41 The Royal Society Ground-level ozone in the 21st century I October 2008 I iii 5.3 Regional modelling 50 5.4 Urban modelling 52 5.5 Uncertainties in model projections 54 5.6 Conclusions 54 6 Climate–ozone interactions 57 6.1 Introduction 57 6.2 Effects of weather and climate on background ozone levels 57 6.3 Effects of changes in weather on peak ozone episodes 60 6.4 Tropospheric ozone changes as a driver of climate change 64 6.5 Gaps and uncertainties 64 6.6 Conclusions 65 7 The effects of ozone on human health 67 7.1 Introduction 67 7.2 Mechanisms of ozone effects – how does ozone cause damage to human health? 67 7.3 Measuring and assessing the effects of ozone on human health 67 7.4 Current human health impacts 69 7.5 Future human health impacts: how significant will the effects of ozone on human health be over the next century? 73 7.6 Conclusion 74 8 Impacts of ozone on the environment 75 8.1 Introduction 75 8.2 Mechanisms and assessment of ozone effects on vegetation 75 8.3 The impacts of ozone on vegetation 77 8.4 How significant will the global impacts of ozone be on the environment over the next century? 81 8.5 Conclusions 84 9 The policy implications of projected changes in ozone concentrations over the 21st century 85 9.1 Emission controls 85 9.2 The implications of climate change for future ozone 86 9.3 Implications of future ozone projections for food security 86 9.4 Improving policy integration 87 9.5 Capacity building 90 9.6 Conclusions 90 10 Research and development 93 10.1 Ozone precursor emissions 93 10.2 Modelling 94 10.3 Evaluating human health impacts 95 10.4 Evaluating environmental impacts 95 10.5 Other research requirements 96 iv I October 2008 I Ground-level ozone in the 21st century The Royal Society 11 Conclusions and recommendations 99 11.1 Ground-level ozone as a global pollutant 99 11.2 Ground-level ozone chemistry – relevance to ozone control 99 11.3 Ground-level ozone in the future 99 11.4 The effects of climate change on future ozone concentrations 100 11.5 Impacts of ozone on human health 101 11.6 The environmental impacts of ozone 102 11.7 Improving ozone policy 102 11.8 Science and research needs 103 Acknowledgements 105 References 107 Annex 1 Glossary and abbreviations 119 Annex 2 Call for evidence response and workshop attendees 123 Annex 3 Specifications for the Royal Society 2050 chemistry–climate simulations 127 The Royal Society Ground-level ozone in the 21st century I October 2008 I v vi I October 2008 I Ground-level ozone in the 21st century The Royal Society Membership of working group The members of the working group involved in producing this report were as follows: Chair Professor David Fowler CBE FRS UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, UK Members Dr Markus Amann Head of the Atmospheric Pollution and Economic Development Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria Professor Ross Anderson FMedSci Professor of Epidemiology and Public Health and Honorary Consultant in Public Health Medicine, St George’s Hospital University of London, UK Professor Mike Ashmore Professor of Environmental Science, Environment Department, University of York, UK Professor Peter Cox Met Office Chair in Climate System Dynamics, University of Exeter, UK Professor Michael Depledge DSc Chair of Environment and Human Health Peninsula Medical School (Universities of Exeter and Plymouth) and Member of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, UK Professor Dick Derwent OBE Director, rdscientific, Honorary Professor in School of Geography and Environmental Sciences at the University of Birmingham, Part-time Professor in the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London and Visiting Professor in the Faculty of Life Sciences, King’s College London, UK Professor Peringe Grennfelt Scientific Director, IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet AB. IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd, Sweden Professor Nick Hewitt Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, UK Professor Oystein Hov Director of Research, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway Dr Mike Jenkin Principle Research Fellow, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Centre for Environment Policy, Imperial College, London, UK Professor Frank Kelly Professor of Environmental Health, Kings College London, UK Professor Peter Liss CBE FRS Professor in the School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Professor Mike Pilling CBE Professor of Physical Chemistry, School of Chemistry, University of Leeds, UK Professor John Pyle FRS Co-Director, National Center for Atmospheric Science and Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, UK Professor Julia Slingo OBE Director of Climate Research, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Walker Institute, University of Reading, UK Dr David Stevenson Senior Lecturer in Atmospheric Modelling, Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Science, University of Edinburgh, UK Secretariat Ms Rachel Garthwaite Manager (Environment and Climate Change) Ms Rachel Newton Policy Officer (Environment and Climate Change) Ms Beverley Darkin Team Leader (Environment, Energy and Climate Change) The Royal Society Ground-level ozone in the 21st century I October 2008 I vii This report has been reviewed by an independent panel of experts and also approved by the Council of the Royal Society. Review Panel Sir David Read FRS Chair of Biological Secretary of the Royal Society and Emeritus Professor of Plant Sciences, Review Panel University of Sheffield Professor Ken Donaldson MRC and University of Edinburgh Centre for Inflammation Research, The Queen’s Medical Research Institute Sir Brian Hoskins CBE FRS Director, Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London Professor Ivar Isaksen Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo Professor Terry Keating Office of Air & Radiation (OAR/OPAR), US Environmental Protection Agency Professor Nino Kuenzli ICREA Research Professor, Center for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL) at Institut Municipal d’Investigació Mèdica (IMIM) Professor Terence Mansfield FRS Emeritus Professor of Plant Physiology, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Lancaster Professor Denise Mauzerall Associate Professor, Science Technology and Environmental Policy Program, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University viii I October 2008 I Ground-level ozone in the 21st century The Royal Society Executive summary Air pollution and ground-level ozone This study assesses possible future changes in global and regional O3 concentrations to 2050 and 2100 given changes Clean air is a basic requirement for human health and wellbeing. in socioeconomic factors, trends in emissions of precursor However, in many countries around the world air pollution is a gases and climate change projections. The effect of current O3 serious threat to both human health and the environment. precursor emissions controls on global and regional O3 over the century is assessed. New modelling work to quantify Tropospheric ozone (O3) is a global air pollution problem and an important greenhouse gas. Although not a new issue, the effects of changes in emissions and climate change on future O3 concentrations is presented. The report evaluates ground level O3 remains one of the most pervasive of the global air pollutants, with impacts on human health, food the potential effects of O3 on human health, the natural environment, agriculture, and the climate system, and production and the environment. At the global scale, O3 pollution is highest in Central Europe, Eastern China, and the considers the policy implications of these impacts.
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