SEA CHANGE EVOLVING MARITIME GEOPOLITICS IN THE INDO-PACIFIC REGION edited by David Michel and Ricky Passarelli STIMSON CENTER | 1 Image Credits Unless otherwise noted, all photos used under the Creative Commons license through Flickr.com. Cover, Page 6: Graphicstock.com Page 8: Indi Samarajiva Page 18: Ulf Bodin Page 18: Paul Gillard Page 30: Hamed Saber SEA CHANGE Page 44: Billy Wilson Page 60: Magnus Brath EVOLVING MARITIME GEOPOLITICS IN THE INDO-PACIFIC REGION Page 70: Pedro Moura Minheiro Page 80: Caspergirl Page 94:Erik Veland Page 110: Francois Schnell Page 122: nodeworx/Stephan L. © COPYRIGHT DECEMBER 2014 STIMSON CENTER For more information, visit www.stimson.org. SEA CHANGE EVOLVING MARITIME GEOPOLITICS IN THE INDO-PACIFIC REGION edited by David Michel and Ricky Passarelli DECEMBER 2014 Contents Preface����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������9 Introduction 11 Diane French, David Michel, and Ricky Passarelli The Indo-Pacific Region and the Rise of Transnational Maritime Threats and Challenges ��������������������������������������������������������������������19 P.K. Ghosh US Maritime Security Relations and Partnerships in the Indo-Pacific: Opportunities for Enhanced Cooperation ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������31 Scott Cheney-Peters India’s Evolving Security Relations and Partnerships in the Indo-Pacific 45 W. Lawrence S. Prabhakar Island States in a Region of Great Powers 61 Nilanthi Samaranayake The Changing Balance of Power in the Indian Ocean: Prospects for a Significant Chinese Naval Presence 71 David Brewster Energy Exploration, Exploitation, and Exports in the Indo-Pacific Region ������������������������81 Dan Millison Shipping Developments and Challenges in the Indo-Pacific Maritime Realm 95 Rupert Herbert-Burns Fisheries, Food Security, and Climate Change in the Indo-Pacific Region ������������������������111 David Michel A Strategy for Securing the Maritime Commons ������������������������������������������������������������������123 Girish Gujar, P.K. Ghosh and Hong Yan STIMSON CENTER | 7 Preface Sea Change: Evolving Maritime Geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific Region began in the fall of 2013 when the US-based Stimson Center partnered with India’s Observer Research Foundation (ORF) to launch a research initiative analyzing the maritime policy challenges and opportunities arising across the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific as these areas emerge as central theaters of 21st century geopolitics In particular, the project aimed to illuminate the evolving role that the waters, shipping lanes, and natural resources of the Indo-Pacific will play in shaping relationships between major regional and extra-regional powers while also examining the various ways that energy exploration and exploitation, infrastructure development, and environmental pressures will impact the Indo-Pacific lit- toral in the coming years and decades To help frame these issues, Stimson and ORF, in association with the US Consulate General in Chennai, India, convened a three-day workshop, entitled “Sea Change: Evolving Maritime Geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific Region,” over the course of two related sessions, one in Chennai from June 10 to 11, 2014, and the second in Kochi on June 12, 2014 The conference brought together senior officials, business leaders, academic analysts, mili- tary representatives, and energy and shipping industry experts from India, the United States, Australia, China, Japan and the broader Indo-Pacific region to elucidate the salient strategic, socio-economic, commercial, and environmental trends affecting the region and examine their implications for decision makers Together, participants engaged topics such as the stra- tegic outlooks of various states, the shifting maritime security risks confronting the region, the existing institutional and legal structures in place to face such challenges, the dynamics of Indo-Pacific maritime trade, rising strains on environmental and natural resource issues, and the role and politics of regional organizations The conference provided a valuable venue for policy makers and stakeholders to debate their various interests and priorities, exchange views, discuss mutual concerns, and forge shared objectives This volume features papers de- veloped at the “Sea Change” conference, presented with an ultimate view to offer practical perspectives on future policy directions, and to spur further dialogue and debate The Stimson Center is grateful to the US Consulate Chennai for its generous financial support and to all of the conference participants for their energy and commitment Stimson is also indebted to its partners at the Observer Research Foundation for their invalu- able collaboration throughout We especially thank PK Ghosh, Darshana Baruah, Uma Purushothaman, Abhijit Iyer-Mitra, and Samir Saran for sharing in this endeavor Stimson also thanks the communications, development, and project management staff, particularly Jim Baird, Francene Blythe, Kyla McKenna, Alla Polyakova, Peter Toto, our interns Owen McAleer and Diane French, and the indispensable Lita Ledesma for their critical contribu- tions to the success of this project David Michel Director, Environmental Security Program Stimson Center November 2014 STIMSON CENTER | 9 Preface 10 | SEA CHANGE Introduction Diane French, David Michel, and Ricky Passarelli The waters of the Indo-Pacific region represent an increasingly critical arena for maritime geopolitics, security, trade, and environmental policy action—issues that have transformed the region into a major crossroads of international relations The vast Indian Ocean and western Pacific are drawn together by natural resource flows, globalized supply chains, and international distribution networks At the same time, Indo-Pacific littoral states face significant policy and governance challenges from multiple sources, including territorial disputes and prospective rivalries among naval powers, intensifying environmental pres- sures on marine and coastal infrastructure and resources, piracy and trafficking on the open ocean, and weak and failing states on shore The interplay of overlapping and intersecting interests in the Indo-Pacific region undergirds a complex strategic environment characterized by growth and integration as well as potential for conflict and vulnerability Increasing exchanges of goods, people, and ideas throughout the region have spurred vital economic and social growth, both within and between countries But certain risks may accompany these rewards Greater interdependence entails possible vulner- abilities Essential sea lanes also represent potential chokepoints Developing natural resources may endanger the natural environment New security risks flow from the pressures of climate change and asymmetric threats, such as piracy and terrorism To navigate the complicated mar- itime realm of the Indo-Pacific, policy makers throughout the region will need to collaboratively develop strategies to address these interconnected strategic, socio-economic, commercial, and environmental trends that will continue to shape the region in the coming decades Strategic Perspectives Varying strategic perspectives on the importance of the Indo-Pacific have been developed by a diverse set of regional actors, including the United States, India, China, Australia, Indonesia, and Japan This shift of the United States and other countries toward the Indian Ocean region has been driven by the dramatic economic growth of China, the steady rise of India’s trade and productivity, the increased importance of raw materials and resource extraction from developing countries, and the escalating crude oil exports of the Middle East to Asia Accelerating rates of change have created a rapidly evolving security land- scape characterized by both of soft and hard power, ranging from maritime partnerships and trade initiatives, to bilateral and multilateral disaster management exercises, to active efforts to demonstrate sea control and credible combat power The recent strategic rebalance of the United States towards the Asia-Pacific has included a strong naval presence serving several purposes Among major US interests are guaranteeing the freedom of navigation for energy and commercial trade, ensuring a stable balance of power, monitoring and deterring threats from actors such as Iran and North Korea, and directing various maritime security operations such as counter-terrorist, counter-trafficking, and count- er-piracy missions Meanwhile, China and India have sought to thread a needle between their strategic cooperative and competitive relations A host of economic and political interests, and an expanding web of bilateral and multilateral interactions around the region, have changed perceptions both between the two Asian giants and with regards to the United States STIMSON CENTER | 11 Introduction In addition to the interlocking rivalries and relations of China, India, and the United States, the region’s dynamics are also determined in good part by the interests and influence of other major countries sharing the Indo-Pacific littoral such as Australia, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, Somalia, South Africa, and Saudi Arabia Such nations have strategic interests not only in militarily protecting