The Economic and Political Costs of Population Displacement and Their Impact on the Sdgs and Multilateralism
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DESA Working Paper No. 167 ST/ESA/2020/DWP/167 JUNE 2020 The economic and political costs of population displacement and their impact on the SDGs and multilateralism Author: Kristinn Sv. Helgason* ABSTRACT While migration and population displacement has always been part of the human experience, the context within which it occurs today has materially changed. Migration has become an important part of economic globalization and closely related to countries´ development process. Conflicts, poverty, natural disasters and climate events are also forcing people to migrate in an ever-increasing number. For many low-income countries with large number of internally-displaced people, on the other hand, the high economic costs are making it more difficult for them to invest in SDG implementation. Developing countries also host most of the externally-displaced people at high economic costs, which similarly affects their ability to achieve the SDGs. The political costs of hosting large number of refugees in developed states have also been significant in recent years, particularly in the aftermath of the 2015 European Refugee Crisis. The refugee crisis triggered intense politicization of migration and sharp rise in anti-immigration sentiments and support for populist parties in many countries of the region, leading some governments to tighten their borders, introduce more restrictive immigration policies and retreat from multilateral migration efforts. There is at the same time growing recognition that population displacement and migration is a contemporary global challenge that can only be solved through effective multilateral cooperation. In this context, it becomes important for states to build on the current nascent governance architecture such as the Global Compact on Refugees and the Global Compact for Migration so that the benefits of migration and population displacement can be more effectively harnessed for the achievement of the SDGs. JEL Classification: F22, Q01 Keywords: migration, population displacement, climate change, conflicts, populism, multilateralism, SDGs Sustainable Development Goals: 10, 17 * Development Research Branch in the Economic Analysis and Policy Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Kristinn would like to express sincere thanks to Ms. Ana Rachel Powell for excellent research support in the preparation of the paper. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations. CONTENTS I Introduction ..................................................................... 3 II Population displacement: internal and external .................................... 4 Internal displacement ...................................................... 4 External displacement ..................................................... 5 Climate-induced population displacement ................................. 6 III The economic costs of population displacement .................................. 7 Internal displacement ...................................................... 7 External displacement .................................................... 10 Developed countries of destination ....................................... 14 IV The political costs in receiving states ............................................. 15 Developed countries ...................................................... 15 Developing countries ..................................................... 18 V The impact of multilateralism .................................................... 19 VI Conclusion ...................................................................... 21 Bibliography .......................................................................... 23 UN/DESA Working Papers are preliminary documents circulated in a limited number of copies and posted on the DESA website at https://www.un.org/development/desa/ publications/working-paper to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The views and opinions expressed here- in are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect UNITED NATIONS those of the United Nations Secretariat. The designations Department of Economic and Social Affairs and terminology employed may not conform to United UN Secretariat, 405 East 42nd Street Nations practice and do not imply the expression of any New York, N.Y. 10017, USA opinion whatsoever on the part of the Organization. e-mail: [email protected] Typesetter: Nancy Settecasi https://www.un.org/development/desa/ THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL COSTS OF POPULATION DISPLACEMENT AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE SDGS AND MULTILATERALISM I Introduction Migration has always been part of the human experience. In the 21st century, migration has become an important part of economic globalization and closely related to countries’ development process, including the demographic transition. As national income per capita of a country rises, and people have access to better health services, the population size tends to increase thanks to declining mortality rates. The growth in the population, combined with dislocations in the rural labour force linked to modernization of agriculture often spurs widespread urbanization and emigration. With accelerating development, fertility rates frequently decline, population growth slows down and eventually stabilizes, the pace of urbanization declines, and emigration becomes less common than immigration. Thus, the propensity for emigration tends to rise and then fall as countries become more developed, reflecting the impact of development on migration patterns and trends (UN DESA, 2017a). Between 1846 and 1939, some 59 million left Europe, mostly for the Americas, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. In the 1820 to 1998 period, some 65 million immigrants came to the United States alone (Castles et al., 2005). In 1850, the United States was home to some 23 million people, 13 million fewer than France. Today, the United States population is close to 330 million, larger than the British, Dutch, French, German and Italian populations combined. Between 1990 and 2015, the United States generated almost all the population growth for the ´more developed regions´, as defined by the United Nations. Recent United Nations predictions also suggest that the same trend will continue until 2040 (Eberstadt, 2019). There has also been a marked shift in migration patterns since World War II, particularly the decline of Europe as the region of origin into becoming, along with the Gulf countries, a key destination. This reflects the directional shift that has taken place, with migrants from an increasingly diverse array of non-European countries concentrating in a shrinking pool of prime destination countries (Czaika and de Haas, 2015). As of 2019, the number of international migrants worldwide was nearly 272 million, constituting 3.5 percent of the world population (UN DESA, 2019). Some 30 per cent of international migrants currently live in Europe. Most migrants move voluntarily within and across national borders, as highlighted above. However, not all such movements are voluntary, with conflicts, poverty, inequality, natural disasters and climate risks also forcing people to migrate in an ever-increasing number. The “push factors” behind forced displacement are also changing. Displacement, in some instances, may be part of a household’s livelihood strategy due to fluctuating income resulting from climatic vagaries (de Haas, 2010). In 2015, Europe experienced sudden arrival of large number of refugees and migrants fleeing conflicts in Syria and several other developing countries. It is estimated that some 3.3 million people sought asylum in Europe in the 2015 to 2017 period alone. The 2015 European Refugee Crisis upended the political system on the continent and contributed to marked decline in public confidence in the ability of states to uphold mul- tilateral agreements in this area. The first casualty of the refugee crisis was the collapse of regional migration governance as some states opted not to comply with the Dublin Regulation. The political costs of the large inflows of refugees and asylum-seekers that took place within a short timespan have also been significant as demonstrated in the sharp rise in anti-immigration sentiments and support for populist parties in many European countries. The adoption of the Global Compact on Refugees and the Global Compact for Migration by the General As- sembly in December 2018 was thus a rare ray of light for multilateralism. This is important as migration will undoubtedly continue to be one of the defining issues of the 21st century – an issue that cannot be resolved within fortified national silos but requires effective multilateral cooperation. 3 DESA WORKING PAPER NO. 167 The purpose of this paper is threefold:firstly , to examine the economic costs that developing and developed countries incur when providing care for large number of internally- and externally-displaced people and the likely impact of such outlays on SDG implementation, secondly, to review the underlying reasons for the high political costs of the 2015 European Refugee Crisis and what this could mean for the future of multilateralism, and, thirdly, to suggest steps that states could take to build on the current nascent migration governance architecture. II Population displacement: internal and external Two terms are particularly important when it comes to reporting on migration. A migration stock is the number of migrants living in the world at a given