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Surprise, Intelligence Failure, and Mass Casualty Terrorism
SURPRISE, INTELLIGENCE FAILURE, AND MASS CASUALTY TERRORISM by Thomas E. Copeland B.A. Political Science, Geneva College, 1991 M.P.I.A., University of Pittsburgh, 1992 Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of The Graduate School of Public and International Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Pittsburgh 2006 UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH FACULTY OF ARTS AND SCIENCES This dissertation was presented by Thomas E. Copeland It was defended on April 12, 2006 and approved by Davis Bobrow, Ph.D. Donald Goldstein, Ph.D. Dennis Gormley Phil Williams, Ph.D. Dissertation Director ii © 2006 Thomas E. Copeland iii SURPRISE, INTELLIGENCE FAILURE, AND MASS CASUALTY TERRORISM Thomas E. Copeland, PhD University of Pittsburgh, 2006 This study aims to evaluate whether surprise and intelligence failure leading to mass casualty terrorism are inevitable. It explores the extent to which four factors – failures of public policy leadership, analytical challenges, organizational obstacles, and the inherent problems of warning information – contribute to intelligence failure. This study applies existing theories of surprise and intelligence failure to case studies of five mass casualty terrorism incidents: World Trade Center 1993; Oklahoma City 1995; Khobar Towers 1996; East African Embassies 1998; and September 11, 2001. A structured, focused comparison of the cases is made using a set of thirteen probing questions based on the factors above. The study concludes that while all four factors were influential, failures of public policy leadership contributed directly to surprise. Psychological bias and poor threat assessments prohibited policy makers from anticipating or preventing attacks. Policy makers mistakenly continued to use a law enforcement approach to handling terrorism, and failed to provide adequate funding, guidance, and oversight of the intelligence community. -
The Falsified War on Terror: How the US Has Protected Some of Its Enemies
Volume 11 | Issue 40 | Number 2 | Article ID 4005 | Oct 01, 2013 The Asia-Pacific Journal | Japan Focus The Falsified War on Terror: How the US Has Protected Some of Its Enemies Peter Dale Scott surveillance matters by its own Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, known as the German translation available FISA court, which according to the New York Times “has quietly become almost a parallel Before World War Two American government, Supreme Court.”3 Thanks largely to Edward for all of its glaring faults, also served as a Snowden, it is now clear that the FISA Court model for the world of limited government, has permitted this deep state to expand having evolved a system of restraints on surveillance beyond the tiny number of known executive power through its constitutional arrangement of checks and balances. All that and suspected Islamic terrorists, to any changed with America’s emergence as a incipient protest movement that might dominant world power, and further after the challenge the policies of the American war Vietnam War. machine. Since 9/11, above all, constitutional American Most Americans have by and large not government has been overshadowed by a series questioned this parallel government, accepting of emergency measures to fight terrorism. The that sacrifices of traditional rights and latter have mushroomed in size and budget, traditional transparency are necessary to keep while traditional government has been shrunk. us safe from al-Qaeda attacks. However secret As a result we have today what the journalist power is unchecked power, and experience of Dana Priest has called the last century has only reinforced the truth of Lord Acton’s famous dictum that unchecked power always corrupts. -
US Government Protection of Al-Qaeda Terrorists and the US- Saudi Black Hole 米政府によるアルカイダ擁護と米・サウジアラビ アのブラックホール
Volume 11 | Issue 29 | Number 1 | Article ID 3971 | Jul 28, 2013 The Asia-Pacific Journal | Japan Focus US Government Protection of Al-Qaeda Terrorists and the US- Saudi Black Hole 米政府によるアルカイダ擁護と米・サウジアラビ アのブラックホール Peter Dale Scott and suspected Islamic terrorists, to any incipient protest movement that might challenge the policies of the American war For almost two centuries American machine. government, though always imperfect, was also a model for the world of limited government, Americans have by and large not questioned having evolved a system of restraints on this parallel government, accepting that executive power through its constitutional sacrifices of traditional rights and traditional arrangement of checks and balances. transparency are necessary to keep us safe from al-Qaeda attacks. However secret power Since 9/11 however, constitutional practices is unchecked power, and experience of the last have been overshadowed by a series of century has only reinforced the truth of Lord emergency measures to fight terrorism. The latter have mushroomed in size, reach and Acton’s famous dictum that unchecked power budget, while traditional government has always corrupts. It is time to consider the shrunk. As a result we have today what the extent to which American secret agencies have journalist Dana Priest has called twodeveloped a symbiotic relationship with the governments: the one its citizens were familiar forces they are supposed to be fighting – and with, operated more or less in the open: the have even on occasion intervened to -
Islamic Radicalization in Arizona
Islamic Radicalization in Arizona John Robert Butler, (Research Assistant, ICT) 31/10/2013 ABSTRACT Jihadi terrorism has become an area of increasing concern for world governments since 9/11. However, individuals typically go through an extensive process of radicalization prior to the execution of such religious violence. This study examines Islamic radicalization in the United States by focusing on the case study of Arizona. It begins by presenting general demographic information for the state, and it then provides the broad overview of the radicalization process in Arizona. The paper then goes on to detail several critical case studies of Islamic radicalization related to terrorist financing, violence, and religious fundamentalism in the state. Lastly, the study concludes with an overview of the current state of radicalization in Arizona and a discussion of potential future areas for radical infiltration, particularly illegal immigration. This paper outlines in depth the links between the Arizona Muslim community and Al-Qaeda, Hamas, and Hezbollah while also detailing the connections between fundamentalist Islam and isolated radical behavior within the family and local Muslim society. * The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT). 2 INTRODUCTION The contemporary threat of jihadi terrorism is largely dependent upon radicalized Islamic networks in the West and affiliated terrorist organizations in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa.1 To some extent, this development is the spontaneous adaptation of a movement ill-suited to centralized command and control, but it is also the function of Al-Qaeda strategic planning conducted prior to the U.S. -
Ali Mohamed: a Biographical Sketch
Ali Mohamed: A Biographical Sketch Ali Mohamed in a U.S. Army training video produced at Fort Bragg, circa 1989 Early Life in Egypt the only al-Qa’ida operative known to have successfully ,1(ﻋﻠﻲ ﻣﺤﻤﺪ) Ali Mohamed infiltrated U.S. military and law enforcement agencies, was born in Kafr El Sheikh, Lower Egypt, in 1952. His father was a career soldier in the Egyptian Army, and he was raised in a devout Muslim home.2 Mohamed went to local public schools and occasionally helped his uncle herd goats in the northern Sinai during his teen years. Following in his father’s footsteps, Mohamed attended the Cairo Military Academy after his graduation from high school in 1970.3 He was a good student and went on to attend university near his hometown, obtaining two bachelor’s degrees and a master’s degree in psychology from the University of Alexandria.4 In addition to his native Arabic, in the course of his post-secondary education he learned English, Hebrew and French. He joined the Egyptian Army in about 1971, eventually rising to the rank of major.5 Radicalization According to statements made to the FBI after his arrest, Mohamed identified his turn to militancy as having occurred in 1966, when he was fourteen.6 He was helping his uncle 1 Also spelled Ali Mohammed, Ali Muhammad, etc. His known aliases include: Abu Mohamed al-Amriki, Abu Omar, Abu Osama, Ahmad Baha Adam, Ali Abdelsaoud Mustafa, Ali Taymour, Ali Abdelsaoud Mustafa Mohamed, Ali Abualacoud Mohamed, Ali Nasser, Bakhboula, Bili Bili, Haydara, Jeff, Omar and Taymour (Berger, Ali Mohamed, 35; U.S.A. -
Understanding Al-Qaeda: History, Ideology and Infrastructure
Syracuse University SURFACE Syracuse University Honors Program Capstone Syracuse University Honors Program Capstone Projects Projects Spring 5-1-2006 Understanding al-Qaeda: History, Ideology and Infrastructure Sarah Dickens Follow this and additional works at: https://surface.syr.edu/honors_capstone Part of the Eastern European Studies Commons, and the Other International and Area Studies Commons Recommended Citation Dickens, Sarah, "Understanding al-Qaeda: History, Ideology and Infrastructure" (2006). Syracuse University Honors Program Capstone Projects. 653. https://surface.syr.edu/honors_capstone/653 This Honors Capstone Project is brought to you for free and open access by the Syracuse University Honors Program Capstone Projects at SURFACE. It has been accepted for inclusion in Syracuse University Honors Program Capstone Projects by an authorized administrator of SURFACE. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Understanding al-Qaeda: History, Ideology and Infrastructure Sarah Dickens Candidate for B.A. Degree in International Relations with Honors May 2006 APPROVED Thesis Project Advisor: Professor Michael Barkun Second Reader: Professor Guitty Khorsand-Tabatabai Date: April 19, 2006 i PREFACE Intellectual discovery is much like a tapestry. Weaving the threads of research, analysis, introspection, and critical thinking, discovery leads to new questions while seeking answers. The process of researching and composing Understanding al-Qaeda: History, Ideology, and Infrastructure has been a meaningful journey, fusing my academic experiences in the fields of International Relations and Middle Eastern Studies. This project began as an inquiry on changes in US counter-terrorism procedure since the devastating attacks on September 11, 2001. However, it was not long before I realized that, like many areas of study, counter-terrorism is one which requires a foundation if it is to be analyzed insightfully. -
Strongmen and State Authority: a State- In- Society Approach to Understanding the Presence of Terrorist Sanctuaries
STRONGMEN AND STATE AUTHORITY: A STATE- IN- SOCIETY APPROACH TO UNDERSTANDING THE PRESENCE OF TERRORIST SANCTUARIES by MELIA T. PFANNENSTIEL B.S., Central Methodist University, 2006 M.A., Kansas State University, 2008 AN ABSTRACT OF A DISSERTATION submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Security Studies College of Arts and Sciences KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY Manhattan, Kansas 2015 Abstract The goal of this dissertation is two-fold. First, is to investigate the relationship between the consequences of state failure and terrorist sanctuaries, which is the prevailing explanation in extant literature. Post 9/11 United States counterterrorism policy has focused on the role of the state in providing safe haven or sanctuary to transnational terrorist organizations. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that both weak and strong states host terrorist sanctuaries. Thus, no clear explanation for why transnational terrorist sanctuaries are in some weak and strong states but not present in others currently exists. Second, this dissertation seeks to fill this gap by adopting Migdal’s (1988) state-society interaction approach to explain the presence of terrorist sanctuaries. This dissertation hypothesizes that the role of society’s structure and societal strongmen’s interactions with the state are an important determinant in whether or not transnational terrorist organizations will seek to establish safe haven within a given territory. Sageman’s (2008) hub and node approach on the operational capacities of transnational terrorist sanctuary networks helps to explain differences in types of sanctuaries. Using a newly constructed dataset on terrorist sanctuaries for quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis through case studies, this dissertation intends to show that the presence of terrorist sanctuaries in both weak and strong states can be understood through four state-society interaction typologies. -
The Rise of American Extremism: an Exploratory Analysis of American Religious and Political Extremism from Presidents Jimmy Carter to Barack Obama: 1977-2016 Alwyn J
Nova Southeastern University NSUWorks Department of Conflict Resolution Studies Theses CAHSS Theses and Dissertations and Dissertations 1-1-2019 The Rise of American Extremism: An Exploratory Analysis of American Religious and Political Extremism from Presidents Jimmy Carter to Barack Obama: 1977-2016 Alwyn J. Melton This document is a product of extensive research conducted at the Nova Southeastern University College of Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences. For more information on research and degree programs at the NSU College of Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences, please click here. Follow this and additional works at: https://nsuworks.nova.edu/shss_dcar_etd Part of the Criminology Commons, Criminology and Criminal Justice Commons, Law Enforcement and Corrections Commons, and the Political Science Commons Share Feedback About This Item This Dissertation is brought to you by the CAHSS Theses and Dissertations at NSUWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Department of Conflict Resolution Studies Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of NSUWorks. For more information, please contact [email protected]. The Rise of American Extremism: An Exploratory Analysis of American Religious and Political Extremism from Presidents Jimmy Carter to Barack Obama: 1977-2016 by Alwyn J. Melton A Dissertation Presented to the College of Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences of Nova Southeastern University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Nova Southeastern University 2018 Copyright © by Alwyn J. Melton October 2018 Dedication I dedicate this paper to my grandmother, my mother and my family. There is an old adage that states “Behind every great man is a great woman” and my grandmother, Dorothy Jean Deleveaux and my mother, Phyllis A. -
Copyright by Lauren Elizabeth Grifka 2010
Copyright by Lauren Elizabeth Grifka 2010 The Thesis committee for Lauren Elizabeth Grifka Certifies that this is the approved version of the following thesis: Muslims in Manhattan: Those Who Built It Up and Those Who Brought It Down APPROVED BY SUPERVISING COMMITTEE: Supervisor: _________________________________ Ami Pedahzur _________________________________ Naama Pat-el Muslims in Manhattan: Those Who Built It Up and Those Who Brought It Down By Lauren Elizabeth Grifka, B.A. Thesis Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts The University of Texas at Austin May 2010 Muslims in Manhattan: Those Who Built It Up and Those Who Brought It Down By Lauren Elizabeth Grifka, M.A. The University of Texas at Austin, 2010 SUPERVISOR: Ami Pedahzur Muslim immigration to the United States has not been studied in detail. The subject has received attention but has been conflated with the study of Arab Americans or Arabic-speaking peoples. The study of Muslim immigration is further obscured by the misconception that all Arabs are Muslim and all Muslims speak Arabic. Muslim immigrants are frequently grouped with other immigrants according to language, ethnicity or nationality. This constellation of factors makes it challenging to extract from the existing literature data which exclusively pertains to Muslim immigration. While conducting research, it became apparent that the immigration of Muslims to the United States needed to be addressed specifically. Presently, the two largest Muslim communities in the United States are located in Dearborn, Michigan and the New York-New Jersey area.