Martin Hoerling – NOAA System Research Laboratory and Jon Eischeid – University of Colorado, CIRES

obody relishes being “past of climate model simulations from the in a PDSI drought monitor. However, peak” anything. Whether it’s the arsenal of tools contributing to the 2007 when monitoring drought conditions prime of our human existence on annual time scales, streamflow is Nor the prime of Nature’s abundance, the Even several of the wetter strongly correlated with annual PDSI. The notion of having less rather than more relationship between the annual virgin is often vehemently denied. But demand runs yield increasing flow (the estimated flow of the stream if growth in the face of production and drought due to the it were in its natural state and unaffected storage decline has severe consequences, overwhelming effect of by the activities of man) at Lees Ferry, especially when existing uses already heat-related moisture loss. Arizona, and the PDSI averaged over consume the available supply. the upper Colorado Basin drainage is FLOW = A + (A x PDSI) The lifeblood of the Southwest is the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). o 1 , which is increasingly What is the news for the Southwest? for FLOW greater than the estimated impacted by climate forces not previously basal flow of 3 million acre-feet (maf). experienced. The recent drought prompts A New Drought Study Using data from 1895-1989, the concern among users and water A common practice in drought monitoring linear regression coefficients are is to derive a meteorological quantity stewards alike, and requires the scientific Ao = 14.5 maf, A1 = 1.69 maf. known as the Palmer Drought Severity community to probe whether a sustained During the 95-year reference period, Index (PDSI; Palmer 1965). The index threat is rising to our already perilous annual PDSI explains 63 percent of the calculates the cumulative effects of moisture balance. The consensus of the annual river flow variations at Lees Ferry. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate precipitation and temperature on surface Change (IPCC, 2001) affirms that moisture balance. Water storage is Post-1989 data offer an independent Earth’s atmosphere is accumulating solely derived from a two-layer period to confirm applicability of the unprecedented quantities of carbon system, with no explict accounting above relation for predicting Lees Ferry dioxide that are now causing detectable for deep or water in flow. This period is one of warming increases in surface air temperature. manmade surface storage. Drought temperatures, allowing us to test the develops when evapotranspiration prediction equation’s fidelity in an Is this ongoing drought an early warning exceeds the supply available from environment of . For sign of something other than the historical precipitation and soil moisture relative 1990-2005, PDSI predicts 85 percent norm, and the gateway to a future climate to a region’s “normal” water balance. of the recent yearly fluctuations of flow with more severe drought hazards? The index ranges from -4 (extreme at Lees Ferry, including the low flow What is known about the sensitivity of drought) to +4 (extreme moistness). regime during the recent drought. moisture conditions in the Southwest to a changing climate? To seek answers storage is key for assessing To determine the probable hydrologic to these questions, we have undertaken during the course of a year consequences of future climate change, a systematic analysis of a new suite in the Southwest, and is not included the above formula was used to downscale

18 • January/February 2007 • Southwest future PDSI to Lees Ferry streamflow. The Historical Future monthly PDSI was calculated for each of 42 climate simulations spanning 1895 to 2060, using multiple runs of 18 different coupled ocean-atmosphere- models. The models were forced with the known changes in atmospheric constituents and solar variations from 1895-2000 and a business-as-usual assumption for future carbon emission after 2000.

A Drastic Change in the 1953 — 1956 2006 — 2030 Character of Drought Sustained drought of severe intensity (PDSI < -3) occurred during 1953-1956, an event rivaled during 2000-2003. The average annual Lees Ferry flow was only 10 maf during both events, but the recent drought bears different properties than its predecessor. In particular, abnormally high temperatures have been more prevalent during the 2000- 2003 drought, with the West nearly 1°C warmer than during the 1950s drought. 2000 — 2003 2035 — 2060

Climate simulations of PDSI for two near-term 25-year periods (2006-2030 and -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 2035-2060) show an increase in drought PDSI severity (relative to their 20th century Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Values less than -3 denote severe drought conditions. Left “normals”) that occurs in lockstep with panels illustrate the 4-year average drought conditions experienced during the 1950s drought surface warming (see figures, above and the recent drought. Right panels are future projections of the PDSI based on 42 simulations right). Little net change in precipitation conducted to support the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. By about 2050, average moisture balance conditions will mimic conditions experienced only rarely at the height of the most severe occurs in the average of all models, historical droughts. though variability among the simulations is considerable. Nonetheless, even several of the wetter runs yield increasing drought due to the overwhelming effect of heat-related moisture loss. The Southwest appears to be entering a new drought era. In the 20th century, drought was principally precipitation driven, and enhanced by temperature. Indications from the simulations are that a near perpetual state of drought will materialize in the coming decades as a consequence of increasing temperature.

To place these probable changes into context, projections for the next quarter century paint a sober in which average PDSI equates to the 2000-2003 drought conditions. This occurs as the consequence of loss due to increased evapotranspiration owing to an average 1.4°C warming (relative see Past Peak, page 35

January/February 2007 • Southwest Hydrology • 19 Past Peak, continued from page 19 unclear whether the historical Lees Ferry 12 different AR4 models and discovered to 1895-2005) in the Colorado Basin. flow-PDSI relation used in this study a near 20 percent decline in runoff for The subsequent quarter century (2035- is strictly applicable to the substantial the Colorado River headwaters by 2050. 2060) is projected to undergo a similar change in climate that is projected. Our study reveals that a sustained change incremental warming: an average 2.8°C Nonetheless, a robust physical relation in moisture conditions is unfolding within over the Upper Colorado. This drives the underpins the projected reduction in the broad range of natural variations. The Palmer Index down to drought severity Colorado River flow. Evapotranspiration Southwest is likely past the peak water rarely witnessed during the 20th century. exceeds precipitation throughout the basin, experienced in the 20th century preceding Past Peak Water implying less runoff as dictated by water the signing of the 1922 Colorado balance requirements. Also, the Lees Compact: a decline in Lees Ferry flow will What are the implications of intensified Ferry flow estimated from the climate reduce water availability below current aridity for Colorado River flow? simulations for 1990-2005 is 13 maf, an consumptive demands within a mere 20 Downscaling the simulated PDSI to already substantial decline from higher years. These projections further expose Lees Ferry flow yields an average rate simulated flows in the early 20th century. the risky reliance by Colorado River water of 10 maf for the next 25 years. As This change is remarkably consistent users upon the Compact as a guarantee drought conditions further intensify due with observations and suggests an that streamflows will always materialize to heat, Colorado River flows would emerging warming effect on streamflow. to match legislated requirements. decline further (see charts below), averaging 7 maf during 2035-2060, Relative to the 1990-2005 mean flow Contact Martin Hoerling at [email protected] values equivalent to the observed lowest of 13 maf, the 42-run average predicts flow at our recent drought’s nadir. a 25 percent decline in streamflow References during 2006-2030, and a 45 percent Christensen, N.S., A.W. , N. Voisin, D.P. Are such low flows realistic on a year- Lettenmeier, and R.N. Palmer, 2004. The effects decline during 2035-2060. This scenario of climate change on the hydrology and water by-year sustained level? First, virtually is consistent with several independent of the Colorado River Basin, Climatic all simulations point to sufficient Change 62(1): 337-363. estimates using different approaches. drought to reduce flow below current IPCC, 2001. Climate Change, 2001: The Scientific Revelle and Waggoner (1983) used Basis, ed. by J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D.J. consumptive uses on the river within empirical methods to predict a 29 percent Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, and D. 20 years, although the range of model Xiaosu, Cambridge University Press, 881 pp. reduction in Lees Ferry flow under a outcomes indicates that we don’t know Milly, P.C.D., K.A. Dunne, and A.V. Vecchia, 2005. scenario of 2°C warming. Christensen Global patterns of trends in streamflow and precisely how low the flow will be. water availability in a changing climate, and others (2004) used a sophisticated Second, whereas the 21st century climate Nature, 438: 347-350. hydrology model to predict an 18 percent change signal is one of low Colorado Palmer, W.C., 1965. Meteorological Drought, U.S. reduction in Colorado River streamflow Dept. of Commerce, Weather Bureau Research River flow, the superimposed natural Paper No. 45, Washington, D.C. by 2050 under a change scenario variability in precipitation is still capable Revelle, R., and P. Waggoner, 1983. Effects of a derived from a climate model that is carbon dioxide-induced climatic change on of producing “normal” flow (by 20th now recognized to be on the low range water supplies in the western , century standards) for a year or two within in Changing Climate, by the Carbon Dioxide of climate change sensitivity. Milly and an otherwise drought epoch. Finally, it is Assessment Committee, pp. 419-432, National others (2005) diagnosed annual runoff in Academy Report 8211, Washington, D.C.

26 12 0.2 Lees Ferry Flow Upper Colorado PDSI Observed: 1896 — 2005 24 AR4 20th C 8 AR4 21st: 2006 — 2030 22 th 20 century average 0.15 AR4 21st: 2035 — 2060 20 18 4 16 0.1 14 0 12 -4 10 PDSI Annual 0.05

Streamflow, MAF Streamflow, 8 6 -8 4 DensityProbability Function 0 -12 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 Upper Colorado PDSI The 1895-2050 Lees Ferry annual streamflow (left) was derived from the AR4 simulations of PDSI (middle) using the downscaling formula that relates observed Lees Ferry flow to observed PDSI during the 20th century. The dark red curve denotes the 42-run average, and the cloud describes the 10 to 90 percent range of individual simulations. The right panel summarizes the probability distribution function of PDSI averaged over the Upper Colorado for individual years of observations 1895-2005 (black), for the 42 models for 1895-2005 (green), and for the 42-model projections of the average PDSI during 2006-2030 (orange) and 2035-2060 (red). Note that the models produce a realistic range of PDSI drought events during the 20th century, and for the future they produce surface moisture conditions that denote progressive aridification and severe drought conditions.

January/February 2007 • Southwest Hydrology • 35