West Cumbria Retail Study Final Report Date: April 2009 WYG PLANNING AND DESIGN Regatta House Clippers Quay Salford Quays Manc ester M50 3$P www.wyg.com roject No: A042817 Date: 24 March 2009 Adrian Fox , Associate repared By: -athryn Donnelly , rincipal lanner Appro.ed By: -eith Nutter - Director Regatta House, Clippers Quay, Salford Quays, Manc ester, M50 3$P Tel: +,, -0.101 122 3223 4a5: +,, -0.101 122 3193 Email: info7wyg.com www.wyg.com C8NTENTS 1.0 INTR8D9CTI8N 1 2.0 C9RRENT AND EMERGING RETAIL TRENDS 3 3.0 PLANNING P8LIC: C8NTE$T 12 ,.0 8RIGINAL MARKET RESEARCH 20 5.0 ASSESSMENT 84 VITALIT: AND VIABILIT: 84 E$ISTING CENTRES 23 0.0 SH8PPING PATTERNS WITHIN WEST C9MBRIA 29 2.0 CHANGING SH8PPING PATTERNS 50 1.0 P8P9LATI8N AND E$PENDIT9RE 0, 9.0 T89RISM E$PENDIT9RE 22 10.0 RETAIL CAPACIT: ASSESSMENT ? WEST C9MBRIA 25 11.0 RETAIL CAPACIT: ASSESSMENT ? ALLERDALE 12 12.0 RETAIL CAPACIT: ASSESSMENT ? C8PELAND 113 13.0 PRINCIPAL 4INDINGS AND REC8MMENDATI8NS 131 GL8SSAR: 84 TERMS Regatta House, Clippers Quay, Salford Quays, Manc ester, M50 3$P Tel: +,, -0.101 122 3223 4a5: +,, -0.101 122 3193 Email: info7wyg.com www.wyg.com 1.0 INTR8D9CTI8N Scope and Purpose 1.01 W:G Planning & Design -W:G. was commissioned Ay Allerdale Boroug CouncilB Copeland Boroug Council and CumAria County Council in April 2001, to undertaCe an assessment of t e current and future retail role of t e main centres wit in t e West CumAria SuADRegion. In response to t e Tender Brief t is report seeCs to: ° Assess t e current retail picture in t e main retail centres in t e Boroug s of Allerdale and CopelandB ° DescriAe t e current retail spending patterns in all retail sectors across t e two Boroug s plus assess t e liCely impact on spending patterns of t e implementation of outstanding retail planning permissions in all t e main townsB ° ProEide a F ealt c ecCG for eac of t e main retail centres of WorCington, W ite aEen, Maryport, CocCermout , Cleator Moor, Millom, Wigton and EgremontB ° Assess t e retail roles of KeswicC, Sillot , Aspatria, Seascale and Gosfort B ° Consider t e impact of outDofDcentre outlets in eac town and t e role of smaller outlets in t e rural Eillages. ° Assess t e impact of t e recent WorCington Town Centre redeEelopment on t e s opping patterns of t e suADregionB ° Assess capacity for furt er retail deEelopment in all retail sectors in eac of t e main centres for fiEe, ten and fifteen year time periodsB ° Consider t e relations ip of t e respectiEe retail roles of WorCington and W ite aEen and t e implications for t e capacity for future retail deEelopment in eac of t e two towns. ° Assess t e potential impact of Earious population growt scenarios for t e Boroug s on spending capacity and patternsB ° Appreciate t e deliEeraAility of all retail elements of current deEelopment initiatiEes in W ite aEen and WorCingtonB and ° Consider t e impact of possiAle c anges to retail policy at t e national leEel. 1.02 T is study includes an inDdept analysis of t e retail proEision wit in t e main centres of t e West CumAria SuADRegion, including an assessment of t e e5tent to w ic t e centres are meeting t e retail needs of t e local population and t e role of t e local s opping networC and t e SuADRegional s opping ierarc y. 1 WYG Planning & Design creati.e minds safe ands www.wyg.com 1.03 In undertaCing t e study, consideration as Aeen made wit regard to t e releEant adEice contained in Planning Policy Statement 0 -PPS0. FPlanning for Town CentresG, w ic was puAlis ed in Marc 2005, toget er wit releEant regional and local planning policy. 2 WYG Planning & Design creati.e minds safe ands www.wyg.com 2.0 C9RRENT AND EMERGING RETAIL TRENDS Introduction 2.01 T e retail property landscape across t e 9K as c anged significantly oEer t e past 50 years, from postD war redeEelopment in town centres, t roug to t e emergence of t e retail ware ouse parCs and outDofD town regional s opping malls. 2.02 During t is time, t e retail and leisure sectors aEe e5perienced consideraAle growt . Spending on retail goods as significantly increased oEer t e past decade, particularly spending on comparison -or nonD food. goods. T is growt in spending is attriAutaAle to a numAer of factors, including greater disposaAle income, c eaper prices and new tec nology. 2.03 T e retail marCet is continually c anging as a result of s ifts in demograp ics, increasingly restrictiEe planning policies and tec nological adEancements, suc as eDtailing. T ese c anges are aEing an impact on t e format of retail and leisure floorspace. Researc undertaCen Ay Britis Council of S opping Centres -F4uture of Retail Property, 2000/2G. identified t at for t e period 1999 to 2005 t e proportion of new retail space t at was deEeloped in 9K town centres rose to 35I. T is reflects t e GoEernmentGs Ftown centres firstG approac . Current Retail Picture 2.0, Researc undertaCen Ay Colliers CRE -Midsummer Retail Report, June 2002. proEides information on recent trends toget er wit forecasts for t e future of retailing in t e 9K. 2.05 T e researc identifies t at alt oug t e 9K as seen impressiEe economic growt oEer t e 2000 to midD 2002 period, particularly in t e financial and Ausiness serEices sector. Recent eEidence as suggested t at t e economic growt oEer t e latter part of 2002 and during 2001 as declined. T e onDgoing downturn in Aot t e 9K and gloAal economy is liCely to continue to it growt in retail spend. Indeed, t e Britis Retail Consortium identified t at total 9K retail sales aEe fallen for t e first time in 13 years Aetween 8ctoAer and NoEemAer 2001 and liCeDforDliCe sales aEe declined for si5 consecutiEe mont s since June 2001. 2.00 Rapidly rising inflation t roug 2001, t e limited aEailaAility of credit and t e s arp downturn in t e ousing marCet means t at consumers are coming under increasing pressure. W ilst it is anticipated t at t e current slow down in t e economy is not e5pected to last Aeyond 2010, it is notaAle t at 3 WYG Planning & Design creati.e minds safe ands www.wyg.com MapInfo1, w o identify t e latest trends in retail consumer e5penditure per ead on conEenience -food. goods and comparison -nonDfood. goods in t e 9K on an annual Aasis, aEe recently reEised t eir forecast growt rates for comparison goods e5penditure for t e period to 2011 from a ig of +5.3I per annum in 2002, to a notaAly lower figure of +,.0I per annum in 2001, after assessing t e potential implications of t e current Fcredit crunc G. T is represents a significant reduction in t e forecast growt of comparison goods e5penditure from t at e5perienced in recent years. 2.02 Indeed, a numAer of ig street retailers reported poor trading figures during t e latter part of 2001 resulting in many retailers selling eaEily reduced goods. Despite t is eaEy discounting on products oEer t e festiEe period toget er wit t e reduction in VAT from 12.5I to 15I set Ay t e GoEernment until January 2010, a numAer of retailers fell into administration during t e end of 2001 and early 2009, including ig street retailers suc as Woolwort s, Adams, KaEEi and W ittards of C elsea. It is widely accepted t at furt er losses to t e ig street will Ae seen during 2009. 2.01 Despite t e loss of Cey ig street retailers and t e oEerall decline in t e retail sector specific parts of t e retail sector aEe performed well. Indeed, t e marCet for recreational goods including DVDs, CDs, toys, computers and AooCs performed well, wit ealt y growt aided Ay supermarCet sales oEer t e period 2002 to 2001, toget er wit t e growing popularity of online s opping for t ese types of goods from retailers suc as AmaLon, w o continue to see an increase in sales yearDonDyear. In addition, growt in conEenience goods e5penditure is forecast to increase in t e future, wit MapInfo reEising t eir forecasts from +1.2I per annum last year to 1.5I per annum for t e period 2002 to 2011. In particular discount conEenience retailers suc as Aldi aEe seen a notaAle increase in sales during 2001 and are looCing to e5pand t eir portfolio t roug to 2009. Similarly, Iceland as also seen an increased performance and as recently purc ased a numAer of former Woolwort s stores as t ey seeC to e5pand. Against t is, MarCs & Spencer as not performed as well, resulting in t e proposed closure of 22 of t eir M&S Simply 4ood stores t roug out t e 9K, alt oug MarCs & Spencer are still committed to opening a numAer of new stores elsew ere. 2.09 8Eerall, indications during t e latter part of 2001 point to a c allenging 2009 for retailers, especially in lig t of falling income growt and a decline in saEings. Colliers CRE predicted t at retailer confidence will erode as a result of slowing ouse prices, w ic will reduce retail sales growt , and due to increased competition for custom.