Drought in Ten Years of Scarce Water

Prof. Wadid ERIAN Head of Land Resource Studies Program and RS/GIS Unit Lead Author in IPCC - SREX , WGII

[email protected] total area: 71,498 sq mi (185,180 sq km)

Population (2010): 22,198,110

SYRIA

Rainfall Variability Percentage departures from normal

Most of Arab region falls within 30% to over 40%, and less than 10% of the Arab region falls between 20% to 30%

Constraints on Agricultural Land in Arab Region Drought Index UNCCD

[1] “LADA” Land Degradation Assessment in Drylands (2001). Proposal, 19 December 2001, UNEP, Global Environment Facility (GEF), (C.F. UNEP/MAP/PAP, 2000).

Population Density Person/Km 2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I mage:Pop_density.jpg

Syria-Demography

Population : 19.3 million (estimate 2007), in addition to the 434 896 Palestinian refugees, and about half a million Iraqi refugees Population density : 105 people / km ² Population Growth: 2.844% (estimate 2007).

2007

ية

سلطنه عمان عمان

الجماهيرية

السلطة الفلسطين الفلسطين

اإلمارات

السعودية

البحرين

الجزائر

جيبوتي

الكويت

األردن

سورية

مصر

تونس

اليمن قطر Around 88% of the total available water is used for Agriculture, ACSAD 2008

Agriculture 88% Drought Aggravates Extreme Poverty in Syria Droughts have been a part of our environment since the beginning of recorded history, and humanity's survival may be testimony only to its capacity to endure this climatic phenomenon.

Drought is the consequence of a natural reduction in the amount of precipitation over extended period of time, usually a season or more in length, often associated with other climatic factors (such as high temperatures, high winds and low relative humidity) that can aggravate the severity of the event, (Sivakumar, 2005) Drought is a normal event that takes place in almost every climate on Earth. Drought manifestation varies from region to region

• in Libya when annual rainfall is less than 180 mm • in USA if less than 2.5 mm of rainfall in 48 hours, • In GB about 15 consecutive days with daily precipitation totals of less than 25 mm in, • in India actual seasonal rainfall deficient by more than twice the mean deviation, • in Indonesia, Bali drought might be considered to occur after a period of only 6 days without rain, (Ragab, 2005). Generally there are three types of drought,

Meteorological drought: when there is a prolonged period with below average precipitation;

Agricultural drought: when there is insufficient moisture for average crop or range production,

Hydrologic drought when the water reserves available in sources such as aquifers, lakes and reservoirs falls below the statistical average (Sivakumar, 2005). . Drought is the most complex of all natural hazards as it affects more people than any other hazard, According to EM/DAT World Disaster Report (2007), about 2.63 million people were affected by Hydro-metrological disasters globally during the period (1997-2006), about 41.82% are affected by drought, 38.87% of them were affected during the year 2002 During 1997/2006, hydro-metrological disasters caused an estimated damage of US$ 66.8 billion per year on average out of this 4.62% caused by drought. Average number of people reported killed by drought in million per year are, Asia (81.11), Africa (26.69), Americas (2.57), Europe (0.14). The West Asia/North Africa (WANA) region is highly vulnerable to natural disasters, and is increasingly bearing greater social and economic losses due to natural disaster events. Over the last decades, the region is facing increasing number of disaster events and exponentially growing economic loss resulting from these disasters. Over the last twenty-five years the region faced 276 disaster events, killing 100,000, affecting 10 million and rendering nearly 1.5 million people homeless.

Algeria Morocco Egypt

Source: Data from Munich Re Drought is one of Tunisia Libya Jordan Djibouti the main 10

Oman Qatar Syria Lebanon disasters facing Arab Region

Bahrain Saudi Arabia Iraq Palestine ISDR Increase Migration

Increase in Hot Waves

Forest Fires Increase WaterScarce

Sand Storms Increase Surface Temperature Sand

Encroachments diversity, diversity, - Drought Decrease Renewable Water Decrease soil moisture

Desertification Reduce Bio Reduce

Loss in Reduction on Decline on Vegetation Cover Land Productivity Natural Vegetation

Increase Food Insecurity

Erian W. (2009). ACSAD Role in Land and Water Risk Reduction in the Arab Region. Regional Workshop on Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change "Challenges and Future Actions“, organized by LAS and UNISDR, .Cairo 21 -23 November,

ARIDITY CHANGES

Drought Severity Index Penman–Monteith method (sc-PDSI pm) Dai Aiguo 2010. “Drought under Global Warming “ . National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado , USA , John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.81

2000 - 2009

2030 - 2039 Drought in Syria (2000 – 2010) Two important trends in drought management could be considered:

(1) improved drought monitoring tools and early warning systems EWSs and

(2) increased emphasis on drought preparedness and mitigation.

Effective drought EWSs are an integral part of efforts worldwide to improve drought preparedness, activities of regional centers, (Wilhite 2005). I. DROUGHT MONITORING Thenkabail et al (2004) and European Commission (2006),

•The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NDVI = (λNIR – λred) / (λNIR + λred) •The Normalized Difference Water Index

NDWI = (ρ NIR — ρ SWIR)/( ρ NIR + ρ SWIR) •Standardize Precipitation Index SPI •Vegetation Condition Index

VCI = (NDVI – NDVI min)/(NDVI max- NDVI min)*100 •Temperature Condition Index

TCI= (BT max – BT min)/(BT max- BT min)*100 Where, BT is the brightness temperature (MODIS LST) •Vegetation Healthy Index VHI= VCI * 0.5 + TCI * 0.5 •Soil Moisture SM Locations of the globally distributed 63000 stations featuring measurement periods longer than 10 years within the GPCC data base. ftp://ftp-anon.dwd.de/pub/data/gpcc/html/fulldata_download.html

The Vegetation Healthy Index (VHI) as drought index has been calculated for all the winter season’s months for the years from 2000 till 2010.

The analysis illustrated the drought variability spatial distribution in time and space.

The main drought classes are as follows: Extremely drought (< 10%), V. High Drought (10-20 %), Moderately Drought (20-30%), Slightly Drought (30-40%), and Not affected (> 40%). The distribution for three different seasons 03/04, 07/08 and 09/10 have been shown in for illustration..

•Vegetation Healthy Index VHI = (VCI * 0.5 )+ (TCI * 0.5) 03 - 04 07 - 08 09 - 10 DROUGHT FREQUANCY

No. of Drought Area Years Million Ha % 0- 2 1.54 8.33 2 -4 6.67 36.05 4 - 6 7.56 40.88 6 - 8 2.49 13.49 8 - 10 0.23 1.25 Length of Drought Periods

Drought Length Area In Years Million Ha %

< 3 11.29 61.02 3 4.03 21.79 4 9.80 5.30 5 1 .35 7.31 6 0.64 3.48 7 430.0 0.24 > 7 0.15 0.83 Vulnerable Areas

Area Vulnerability Classes Million Ha %

Not Vulnerable 12.19 65.92

Slight 3.59 19.42 Moderate 1.92 10.40 High 0.78 4.2 5 Governments with high Vulnerability

Ground water scenarios - ACSAD 2003

Ground Water thickness After 3 years After 5 years هبوط 22 متر After !0 years

هبوط 18 متر هبوط 12 متر وضع الزراعات الشتوية

وضع الزراعات الصيفية المعتمدة على مياه اآلبار الجوفية

توزع الغطاء النباتي في سوريا 17/1/2011

نسبة الغطاء النباتي سوريا % 19.5

كثافة الغطاء النباتي % خفيف 14.80 متوسط 3.64 كثيف 1.02 نسبة الغطاء النباتي بمحافظة الحسكة 12.5%

كثافة الغطاء النباتي % خفيف 11.99 متوسط 0.49 كثيف 0.00 توزع الغطاء النباتي في سوريا 2/2/2011

نسبة الغطاء النباتي بسوريا % 22.4

كثافة الغطاء النباتي % خفيف 16.84 متوسط 4.48 كثيف 1.07 نسبة الغطاء النباتي بمحافظة الحسكة %21.07

كثافة الغطاء النباتي % خفيف 19.07 متوسط 1.94 كثيف 0.06

قرية أم ركيبة قرية أم ركيبة قرية الشدادي قرية الشدادة قرية شويخة قرية حويزية قرية حويزية قرية قبر سلوم قرية قبر سلوم

قرية خاتونية قرية غزالة قرية القيروان

قرية أم جحيرة قرية شيخ رجوم Agriculture Models

MODELS STABILITY LEVEL

Rainfed Agriculture + Supplementary Irrigation Relatively High (shallow ground water)

Rainfed Agriculture + Supplementary Irrigation (deep ground water)

Rainfed Agriculture

Surface Irrigation from river Salty ground water Relatively Low مركز الحسكة Rainfed Agriculture سيحة عبد الكريم، سلمان الشيخ نامس، خويلد فوقاني، العنترية تل تمر خربة اللبن، تل ال َم ْغر، ال َغ َّرة، ال ْش َع ْي َرة، الخابورية، ال َخ ْزنَة

عامودا حج ناصر، تل حبش تل حميس خربة نورا قامشلي تل تبن رأس العين + Rainfed Agriculture دادا عبدال Supplementary Irrigation (Deep المريكيز الجنوبي درباسية (ground water ْدكوك تل بقر مركز الحسكة قُمر غربي عامودا تليل ( ُدو ِك ْر ) تل حميس اسكندرون رأس العين Fresh ground water َع َّرادة ال َك ْس َرة تل تمر تل هرمز قرية الحجية The River is the largest perennial tributary to the in Syrian territory. Although the Khabur originates in , the karstic springs around Ra's al-'Ayn are the river's main source of water. Several important wadis join the Khabur north of Al-Hasakah, together creating what is known as the Khabur Triangle, or Upper Khabur area

(27 October 2009)

LAND DEGRADATION IN ARAB REGION (1999 – 2009) Trend line analysis in Arab Region, SPOT veg., (1 km) Prepare Regional/National Trend Analysis Monitoring Systems

II. PREPAREDNESS Disaster = Drought + Vulnerable Area

Increase the chances for Socio- economical disaster

Reduce the chances for Assets Socio- Governance economical disaster Technology Climate Change Estimation of crops Areas and Productivity

Harmonization and Standardization efforts within Arab Countries

Through Capacity Building and Networking

Response

assessing assessing

Monitoring and

Breeding

Agriculture Agriculture

Conservation

Environmental Hazards Environmental

Rehabilitating Rehabilitating

Productivity via via Productivity

Improve Animal Improve

resistant Varieties resistant

Integrated Water Water Integrated

Degraded Areas Degraded

Flood Control Risk

Source Management Source Introducing new stress stress new Introducing

Preparedness ACSAD Tool Box

“Arab Framework Action Plan on Climate Change” (AFAPCC) 2010-2020 under preparation Climate Change

Estimation of crops Areas and Productivity

Harmonization and Standardization efforts within Arab Countries

Through Capacity Building and Networking

assessing

Areas

Monitoring Monitoring and

via via Breeding

Management

Environmental Environmental Hazards

resistant Varieties

Flood Risk Control Risk Flood

Introducingstressnew

Agriculture Conservation Agriculture

Rehabilitating Degraded Degraded Rehabilitating

Integrated WaterIntegratedSource Improve Animal Animal ImproveProductivity

ACSAD Tool Box

Thank you

Acknowledgment to ACSAD RS/GIS unit, NRSC Lebanon, GTZ