A B O U T I N T E G R I T Y U K Integrity UK is an organisation committed to preventing extremism through innovative approaches to promoting integration, cohesion and social reconciliation within the MENA region and the UK.

S Y R I A I N T E L L I G E N C E R E P O R T 29th February – 2nd March 2020

Following the killings of over 30 Turkish soldiers on Thursday evening, the situation in continued to escalate over the weekend. In the early hours of Sunday, the Turkish Ministry of Defence announced that it shot down two Syrian SU-24 Aircraft after a Turkish drone was shot down over Idlib. The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) also continued to launch rocket strikes across Syrian Arab Army (SAA) bases and sites across the country, targeting the Kuweires Airbase in eastern , the Nairab Airbase in Aleppo City which Turkish officials said was rendered inoperable, the Menagh Airbase in the Tal Rifaat region of northern Aleppo, the Airbase, the SAA's “Defence Factories” in the Aleppo countryside and the targeting of numerous SAA vehicles and convoys near the frontlines of Idlib and Aleppo. While details remain unclear over whether sophisticated air defence systems such as the S-300 were targeted, numerous air defence and radar platforms were destroyed during these strikes or neutralised through electronic warfare suites. Amidst these strikes, the Turkish Minister of Defence announced that the TSK had launched its Idlib operations under the name “Operation Spring Shield”. Akar described the objectives of the operations as creating a lasting ceasefire. Akar noted that has no intention to confront Russia and called on Moscow to stop the attacks against Turkish troops by the SAA, adding that the operation is in line with the United Nations’ charter.

Commenting on the situation, Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, vowed to press on, warning that should the borders determined by Turkey [vis-à-vis Sochi] be breached, those doing so would “lose their heads”. Erdoğan noted that Turkey has targeted neither Russia nor Iran in and only attacked “regime elements” that targeted Turkish soldiers, calling on Tehran and Moscow to exercise sensitivity to Turkish concerns. In other speeches over the weekend, Erdoğan also called for a 30-kilometre-deep buffer zone along the northern Syrian border and called on the Russian forces to let the TSK face the SAA. Moscow, for its part, has been relatively quiet over the situation, with only one statement, from Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, reiterating that Turkey’s presence in Syria is not legal. Officials from the Russian Centre for Reconciliation also announced that they would no longer guarantee the safety of Turkish aircraft over Idlib after announced the closure of the airspace over Idlib on Sunday. Both Peskov and the Centre also accused Turkey of non-compliance to the Sochi Agreement and failing to clamp down on “terrorist groups”. These issues will be on top of the agenda during the next meeting of Erdoğan and the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, who are due to meet on Thursday according to numerous outlets.

Prominent jihadi ideologue, Abdullah al-Muhaysini, has also broken his silence on the matter, issuing a video statement to express support for Turkey's presence in Idlib. The video, addressed to the Turkish public, made numerous references to Ottoman-Syrian history as a point of commonality, warning that Syrians have no others left on their side but the “grandchildren of the ” in evocation of tropes that highlights his knowledge of his audience. Notably, the video was subtitled in Turkish and distributed by a number of Turkish outlets, highlighting the renewed efforts to gain support among the Turkish public after recent months saw a fall for such support. While Muhaysini is no longer part of the

For further information, contact Integrity UK on: [email protected] or +44 207 879 9979 Hayy’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), his views and comments expressed are likely reflective of the views of the HTS, and other hard-line groups in Idlib who have been on the fence about Turkey’s presence until recently.

Meanwhile, Turkey's decision to “open the borders” of European Union countries to Syrian refugees in response to the situation in Idlib is having major impacts in Turkey's western neighbours, especially Greece. Over the course of the weekend, Greek Border Guards and police targeted refugees trying to enter the country with tear gas and rubber bullets, with at least one man killed during these incidents while another child drowned after a smuggling boat capsized off the island of Lesbos. Criticising Turkey’s conduct over the refugee crisis, Greece vetoed a NATO statement supporting Turkey in northern Syria. Commenting on the situation, Erdoğan criticised the stance of the EU regarding Syrian refugees, noting that its supportive words had failed to translate to action, forcing Turkey to deal with the situation on its own. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees, meanwhile, appealed for calm in the border and for tensions to be eased between Turkey and the EU in light of the situation. The agency offered its support to both countries and called on them to refrain from actions that might increase the suffering of vulnerable people, calling on them to handle asylum requests in an orderly manner. The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AA) also reacted to the developing situation, announcing that it is ready to admit more displaced individuals from Idlib. AA and UN officials have reportedly been in contact on how to improve the situation and enable a more organised way of handling displaced Syrians, as all existing measures have been piecemeal. However, AA officials warned that the closure of the Yaroubiyah Border Crossing continues to hamper efforts. The AA has, so far, admitted about 1,000 displaced Syrians from Idlib.

A delegation of representatives belonging to Libya's Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) Government visited Damascus on Sunday. The delegation, including the HoR's Deputy Prime Minister, Abdul-Rahman al-Ahiresh; Foreign Minister, Abdul-Hadi al-Hawaij; and high-ranking members of the Libyan National Army (LNA), met the Syrian Government's Foreign Minister, Walid al-Moallem, as well as President Bashar al-Assad. The HoR delegation announced that it would reopen the Libyan embassy in Damascus that was closed down in 2012. The two sides also expressed mutual support against what they described as Turkish aggression.

The Syrian Government's Ministry of Health announced that first two suspected cases of the COVID- 19 (Coronavirus) have been discovered in Damascus and taken to the Mujtahid Hospital for Monitoring. Officials stated that both confirmed cases had come from Iran and were placed in rooms equipped to deal with such cases. Government officials also announced that it will take proactive measures against the spread of the disease by temporarily suspending tourist groups from countries where the disease is present. This, in conjunction with the Iranian Government's suspension of religious tourism, has resulted in a sharp drop of visitors around the Sayyeda Zainab Shrine. While the disease appears to be under control in the more populated parts of the country, activists in Deir ez-Zour reported that five Iranian militia members were tested positive for COVID-19 and were taken into quarantine. A Syrian national in was also reported to have tested positive for the virus.

Amidst these developments, clashes across Syria have continued. In addition to the developments described above, Idlib Province has witnessed numerous other developments over the weekend. Around , the SAA continued to launch attacks against the Opposition-controlled strategic town, with Russian and Syrian airstrikes continuing even after the shooting-down of the two SU-24 fighters. The SAA reportedly managed to push into Saraqib on Monday morning, taking partial control of the town. Although heavy fighting around the town centre continues, the SAA is reportedly making gradual progress. Some outlets also reported that all villages south and east of Saraqib were also captured, which would put the M5 Highway back under SAA control; however, it would appear that those segments of the M5 remain under Opposition control.

The situation also remains fluid in southern Idlib and northwest Hama where the SAA gains last week were largely reversed by the Opposition factions who managed to retake control of 13 villages around

For further information, contact Integrity UK on: [email protected] or +44 207 879 9979 the Jabal Shahsbo region and the Ghab Plains. By Monday, there were reports of the Opposition factions gaining ground around the strategic and symbolic town of before capturing the town itself. However, it would appear that by Monday afternoon, the SAA regained control of the town, as well as the neighbouring villages of Hazarin, Kawkabah Deir al-Kabirah and Kafrmus.

After a steady uptick of attacks and assassinations, has witnessed an explosive series of events that may plunge the province back into fighting. The events started in the restive town of Sanamain when the SAA attempted to storm what appeared to be a rebel safe-house on Sunday, resulting in clashes that rapidly escalated. The rebels, led by Walid al-Zahra, were able to take control of several neighbourhoods in the town, resulting in heavy shelling in the area. The SAA has since brought in reinforcements and surrounded the neighbourhoods. However, despite the attempts at clamping down on the incident, insurgents believed to be with the Popular Resistance were reported to have blocked roads in the towns of Karak, Na'wa, , Da'el, Jilleen and Sheikh Saad, launching attacks at SAA checkpoints and positions. Clashes were also reported in the towns of Oum al-Mayathen and Hirak. Meanwhile, protests in solidarity with Sanamain broke out in al-Sham and Daraa City itself. At least three members of security forces were killed in Muzayrib while two others were captured in where three rebel fighters were also killed. In Daraa al-Balad, one soldier was found dead. In Sanamain itself, at least four civilians were reported killed. Clashes in Sanamain continued on Monday, with continued attacks against SAA checkpoints. Attacks in other areas, such as Hayt where a rocket attack was reported, also continued.

In the neighbouring province of , Monday saw another helicopter attack by the Defence Forces (IDF), this time targeting a vehicle in Ain Tinah that, according to an IDF spokesperson, was used in a sniper attack. Cross-border attacks by the IDF on the SAA picked up over the past weeks, with most such attacks using drones or helicopters and targeting small posts or vehicles. Over the weekend, the Israeli Defence Minister, Naftali Bennett, reiterated that the IDF aims to remove Iran from Syria within the next 12 months.

In addition to Daraa and Quneitra, security incidents are also continuing in Damascus. According to Opposition activists, a security station in Moadamiyat al-Sham in western Damascus was targeted in a grenade attack, with security forces carrying out numerous arrests following the incident. In the Jaramanah District of Damascus, an IED exploded on Sunday, with no casualties reported.

Islamic State (IS)-linked attacks against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have continued. The group claimed on Sunday that two SDF fighters were killed in a bombing in (Deir ez-Zour). The same day, two SDF fighters were killed in a shooting in Dhiban (Deir ez-Zour). In al-Hol Refugee Camp, eight tents were set on fire by suspected IS supporters, with no injuries reported. The SDF, meanwhile, continued to raid suspected IS safe-houses, uncovering a sleeper cell, arresting two suspects and confiscating money, equipment and IS propaganda.

The TSK announced on Monday that 17 suspected People's Protection Units (YPG) fighters around al-Bab and seven suspected YPG fighters around Tal Rifaat were neutralised during security operations. The same day, the Afrin Liberation Forces (HRE) announced that three Syrian National Army (SNA) fighters were killed in Mar'anaz during a rocket attack. Clashes were also reported on Monday between the SNA and the SDF near Jibreen, between A'zaz and Mare'a. Two civilians were killed during the shelling at Jibreen.

For further information, contact Integrity UK on: [email protected] or +44 207 879 9979