Understanding the Rising NEET Phenomenon in Southern CAP Paper 206 (CAAF Fellows Papers), June 2018

Dinara Alimkhanova is a young researcher in the field region to region, with southern of education, specializing in vocational education and oblasts having the highest rates. There is almost no research training. After graduating from the Graduate School of devoted to the study of NEETs in Education at Nazarbayev University (Kazakhstan), she Kazakhstan3 and no information worked at a think tank under the Ministry of Education is available on their socio- demographic profile (category, and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan. She has held age, poverty, time as a NEET, internships at the European Training Foundation (under etc.). Thus, current employment the European Commission, Italy) and UNESCO (Israel) data—which measure only formal focused on youth education and training, matching and employment—do not capture the real situation of the youth labor developing skills in the labor market, getting early school market in Kazakhstan, with the leavers back into education, etc. result that the government’s n Kazakhstan, every fifth of this growing and potentially numerous initiatives directed citizen belongs to the younger at-risk youth group can help them toward youth education and generation. Since young elaborate more effective policies employment fail to reach a sizable I number of young people. people are a fundamental asset to on the issue. Kazakhstani society, it is critical for them to be equipped with the The urgency of understanding In this paper, I first provide expertise and skills necessary to the rising NEET phenomenon, basic information on youth succeed in a competitive global especially in southern employment in Kazakhstan and market economy. As the expe- Kazakhstan, is indicated by a explain the NEET phenomenon. rience of many other countries number of data points. According I then give an overview of NEET has shown, youth can quickly to a recent OECD report,2 youth in southern Kazakhstan. turn from an asset to a liability although 96 percent of young Next, I review factors that may be if left without proper education Kazakhstanis are employed, they contributing to the rising number and jobs. This paper examines the are often engaged in low-quality, of such social group. Finally, worrisome rising number of youth low-paid, and high-risk jobs. bringing together extant research from southern Kazakhstan who Such low-quality employment and new data, I offer policy are not in employment, educa- is often found in the informal recommendations for addressing tion, or training (NEET). In OECD economy, which employed the NEET phenomenon in the countries, in particular, the NEET about one-third (28 percent) region. category is being used as an indi- of young Kazakhstanis in 2016. cator of youth marginalization Another segment of youth is self- and disengagement.1 Improving employed. At the same time, the policymakers’ understanding exact number of NEET varies from

CAP Fellows Paper 206 1 The History of the NEET young adults.9 Kovrova et al. also his mother who leaves trays outside his bedroom. He sleeps all day, then awakes Phenomenon argue that NEET-focused data give in the evening to spend his time surfing a more comprehensive view of the the internet, chatting on online bulletin The NEET phenomenon first segment of the youth population boards, reading manga (comic books), 14 emerged in the studies of British that has given up looking for work and playing video games. scholars in the 1990s.4 Their or is unwilling to join the labor research explored the correlation market.10 These individuals go uncounted between being in neither in conventional labor force education nor employment as a In performing analysis using the measurements. Teo further youth and different issues, such as NEET indicator, it is important for explains that the high number unemployment and poor health, scholars and experts to consider of NEETs in Japan is associated in adulthood. The study found that three age sub-groups within NEET: with students’ low motivation to when young people who had been 15-19, 20-24, and 25-29. Each study or with lack of resources out of education and employment subgroup has its own reasons for to pay for education. At the for a period of at least six months falling into the NEET category. same time, an alarming increase became adults, they were more in mental health diagnoses— frequently unemployed or of school dropouts, while the including depression, anxiety, or 15 working part-time, more likely secondThe first group sub-group is made often up ofconsists young schizophrenia —among youth to become parents young, and/ may be making it difficult for or often had physical/mental entering the labor market or young Japanese to enter the health problems.5 Based on furtherpeople whoeducation. experience In difficultiesthe last workforce or higher education. these studies, in 2001 the British sub-group, young people leaving Thus, the case of Japan illustrates government introduced a new that micro-level socio-cultural NEET indicator to its studies skills are not needed in the labor patterns and macro-level factors of the youth labor market. The market,education resulting often in find their that inability their such as the economy and access ultimate aim was for these new to education all contribute to the statistical data to eventually time as they may no longer have NEET phenomenon. reduce the number of youth aged theto findresources employment to engage at in the further same 16 to 18 who were not in education training.11 In a comparative context, or employment.6 The European Kazakhstan has a lower NEET labor market followed Britain in It is also important to note that rate than its neighbors and OECD adopting NEET to supplement the NEET phenomenon in Japan countries (see Figure 1). In OECD the youth unemployment rate has a unique face. NEET in Japan countries, a high NEET rate is indicator.7 Botric & Tomic stress emerged as the number of job- strongly correlated with low that it is highly important to switchers and part-time workers educational attainment: in 2016, keep the youth labor market began to grow, reaching nearly the vast majority (85 percent) vibrant, as this directly affects the 2 million people in 2002.12 In of all NEETs had no tertiary sustainable GDP rate.8 his study, Teo estimates that education. That being said, in there are thousands of youths seven OECD countries (Belgium, Internationally, the description the Czech Republic, Denmark, of the youth labor market is in their own virtual caves (so- Estonia, Greece, Japan, and limited to two major indicators: calledand adults hikikomori “finding).13 He themselves” offers the Slovenia), over half of NEETs employment and unemployment example of were between 25 and 29 years rates among youth. Bacher et of age, indicating difficulties al. contend, however, that youth a 19-year-old Japanese man who lives not so much in accessing higher unemployment is too narrow to with his middle-class parents in a two- education as in transitioning bedroom urban apartment. For the last from school to work, often due to capture the vulnerable group of two years he has hardly ever left his youth because it underestimates a lack of work experience and low room, spending 23 hours a day behind 16 the extent of the problem among its closed door. He eats food prepared by qualifications.

CAP Fellows Paper 206 2 Figure 1. NEET rate in Kazakhstan and the world, 2016, % Figure 1. NEET rate in Kazakhstan and the world, 2016, %

Figure 1. NEET rate in Kazakhstan and the world, 2016, %

Sources: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), “Youth Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET) Indicator, 2018,” https://data.oecd.org/youthinac/ youth-not-in-employment-education-or-training-neet.htm, accessed April 24, 2018; ILO statistical database, http://www.ilo.org/ilostat/faces/oracle/webcenter/portalapp/pagehierarchy/ Page3.jspx?MBI_ID=20&_adf.ctrl-state=12rhv46kx3_54&_afrLoop=453077140267259&_ afrWindowMode=0&_afrWindowId=12rhv46kx3_51#, accessed April 24, 2018

Theorizing the NEET gender who are neither employed inactive youth may include Phenomenon nor involved in further education voluntary NEETs, family carers, or training. The data are normally or individuals with disabilities. A high NEET rate may have a calculated through the ILO’s Driouchi & Harkat have found that number of negative short-term as Labor Force Survey (LFS), a urban youth and young females well as long-term consequences standard household-based have a particular propensity to for a society. When young people survey of work-related statistics, leave the education system and struggle to find permanent as the percentage of young people labor market.23 Internationally, employment, it puts them at a who (i) are not employed; and (ii) young people are considered higher risk of poverty and lower have not received any education NEETs whether or not they levels of well-being.17 Scarpetta et or training in the four weeks prior receive unemployment benefits, al.18 find that “left behinds” have to the survey.21 As the survey aims social assistance, or family poorer health and are more likely to capture the situation of the benefits, but different countries to engage in criminal activity. This entire labor force, it also gathers have different methodologies for segment of the population also information on the labor market calculating how many NEETs tends to have lower levels of trust situation among youth and their they have.24 in socio-political institutions and participation in education or the government.19 training programs. Most existing Youth Labor Force and NEET NEET studies use LFS data. in (Southern) Kazakhstan: Today, most countries accept Key Facts the International Labor Generally, a NEET group falls Organization’s (ILO) definition into two major subcategories: Youth Labor Force Outlook of and methodology on NEET. unemployed youth and inactive in Kazakhstan According to the ILO,20 the NEET youth.22 Unemployed young rate consists of the percentage people include those who are In 2017, young people—those of the population of a given without work but currently between the ages of 14 and 29— age group (15-29 or 15-24) and seeking employment, whereas constituted almost one-fourth of

CAP Fellows Paper 206 3 Figure 2. The projected number of youth (16-24) in the Republic of Kazakhstan by 2030 (number of people)

Source: Ministry of the National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan the total population of Kazakhstan employees and self-employed employees, or “own-account (22 percent, or nearly 4 million). workers. workers,”32 who work for Figure 2 shows that by 2030, the themselves and do not hire any number of young Kazakhstanis Employees29 (also known as full-time employees to work for aged 16-24 is expected to increase salaried workers) are workers them.33 In 2016, 16 percent of by 30 percent.25 who hold a (written or oral) Kazakhstan’s young people (more job contract and are paid for than 80,000) were categorized About 57 percent of Kazakhstani their employment status.30 as own-account workers. This young adults reside in cities and Self-employed31 young people classification implies that these more than half are men (50.4 are those who run their own individuals “have a tenuous percent). Over one-third (35 businesses: either “employers,” hold on employment, and the percent) were in education and who manage their own enterprise line between employment and more than half (55 percent) were and have one or more full-time unemployment is often thin.”34 A active labor force participants in 26 2016. According to the labor Figure 3. Youth labor force in Kazakhstan, 2016 force statistics from that year, 96 percent of all youth were employed, while the remaining 4 percent were unemployed, a common dynamic in the youth labor market in recent years.27 However, scholars debate the degree to which these figures reflect the reality of youth employment. Some argue that the high level of youth employment is an illusion because many young people work in the informal economy or are self-employed.28 Figure 3 offers a more detailed picture of employed youth, Source: Constructed by the author on the basis of data from the breaking that category down into Statistics Office of the Republic of Kazakhstan

CAP Fellows Paper 206 4 high proportion of own-account the Labor Force Survey is the for some socio-demographic workers is frequently correlated Statistics Office of the Republic groups.39 In other words, informal with a large number of people of Kazakhstan. NEET data are jobs allowed some people to be from low-income families, from available from 2001 to 2017, considered “employed,” when rural areas, or working in the but no empirical research has in fact they were neither self- informal sector, all of whom can been conducted since that time. employed nor hired by someone be considered vulnerable in terms As of 2016, approximately else (see the previous section of their employment.35 357,000 Kazakhstani youth (9.2 for more details). A number of percent) were found to be neither other studies40 indicate that this In addition, because some employed nor enrolled in any tendency is a global one: NEET employees hold a job contract educational institution and thus growth began in the aftermath based on an oral agreement were classified as NEET. of the financial crisis and has and the businesses of some not stabilized. Many young self-employed young people The proportion of NEETs people still face the challenge of are not registered, about one- gradually declined between 2001 a skills mismatch: they lack the third (385,680, or 28 percent) and 2011, a decrease that can be competencies that would make of young Kazakhstanis36 worked explained by a reduction in youth them attractive to employers.41 informally in 2017. This means unemployment, which is a major that they lacked the protection contributor to NEET (see Figure NEET Youth in Southern of labor contracts, had lower 4). Since 2012, however, the share Kazakhstan wages, and experienced poor of NEETs has been growing. More working conditions.37 The OECD young Kazakhstanis have begun Although the proportion study suggests that young people to withdraw from education and of NEETs varies across the often find themselves taking on the labor market. This shows that, country, Southern regions tend unstable work in the informal in addition to the unemployment to have the highest numbers economy due to their low skills.38 situation, several factors have of NEETs. Officially, Southern combined to drive youth to drop Kazakhstan includes the , NEET Youth in Kazakhstan out of education or work. One Zhambyl, South Kazakhstan, explanation based on the OECD’s and regions,42 as In Kazakhstan, the organization findings is that the informal well as Almaty city (see Figure that collects NEET data for sector played an illusionary role 5). Although Mangystau oblast

Figure 4. The proportion of NEETs in the Republic of Kazakhstan, 2001-2016, %

Source: The Statistics Office of the Republic of Kazakhstan CAP Fellows Paper 206 5 Figure 5. Share of NEET youth in Kazakhstan, 2016, %

Source: The Statistics Office of the Republic of Kazakhstan belongs administratively to West ones. Economic Factors Kazakhstan, I decided to include this oblast alongside the southern Generally, both urban and rural Shadow Economy regions, since it has the highest areas in southern regions have proportion of NEETs and shares high proportions of NEETs, The shadow economy can common cultural, social, and ranging from 6 percent in South contribute to a low employment demographic features with the Kazakhstan oblast to 16.5 percent rate among youth. As Kulekeyev other southern oblasts. I also in Mangystau oblast (see Figure notes, informal and shadow considered including 6). The main explanation for this employment—meaning jobs oblast in the study due to its tendency may be the widespread that are not registered by the high NEET rate, but the region’s informal and/or self-employment statistical and tax authorities— geographical location (Central economy present in the region characterize the modern labor Kazakhstan) and diverse socio- (see the next section). market in Kazakhstan.44 An economic characteristics make econometric study by Medina it too different from southern Discussion: Factors & Schneider found that the Kazakhstan. Contributing to NEET shadow economy in its various Growth in Urban Areas of forms accounts for 40 percent of From the location perspective, Southern Kazakhstan the country’s GDP.45 According urban areas of the country’s to Abdih, informality is so southern regions show slightly In this paper I contend that several prevalent in Kazakhstan because higher rates of NEETs than rural economic and social factors have administrative regulation and areas. This may be explained by contributed to the increase in the taxation overburden businesses the fact that youths seek better numbers of NEETs in southern that attempt to operate “by jobs or educational opportunities urban areas since the fluctuations the book”46 and even officially in the cities and remain there even of 2010-2016 (see Figure 7). registered enterprises may when neither is forthcoming.43 conceal their income for the Only in South Kazakhstan oblast purpose of evading taxes.47 The and Mangystau oblast are there ILO study found that most of more rural NEETs than urban the shadow economic activity in

CAP Fellows Paper 206 6 Figure 6. Share of NEET youth in urban versus rural settlements, 2016, %

Source: The Statistics Office of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Figure 7. Urban NEET rate in Southern regions, 2010-2016, %

Source: The Statistics Office of the Republic of Kazakhstan

CAP Fellows Paper 206 7 the country is concentrated in unregistered business means that constitute the main sub-group southern regions.48 these workers make a limited within the NEET category.60 contribution to the local economy, According to labor statistics, since they do not pay taxes and The southern regions are nearly one-third of young tend to offer only temporary or characterized not only, as Kazakhstanis (385,680, or part-time work to employees.56 discussed in the previous section, 28 percent) were engaged in by a high number of self-employed informal employment in 2017.49 Alzhanova et al. found that self- and informally-employed youth, The majority of informal workers employment is increasingly but also by a high number of are found in southern regions— prevalent in monotowns. With unemployed youth. Generally, especially Zhambyl oblast (31 the degradation of the industries these regions have a higher percent), Almaty oblast (18.3 that once dominated these cities youth unemployment rate in percent), Kyzylorda oblast (14 and the consequent erosion of urban areas than in rural ones percent), and Almaty city (11 good jobs, young people set out (see Appendix 2). Correlational percent)50—but no youth-specific on their own.57 This can lead analysis of urban NEETs and data are available. However, to social exclusion for young urban unemployed youth given that more than half (51 self-employed adults, who find found a positive relationship percent) of young people reside themselves facing mistrust, between these two variables in in southern regions, they are indifference, and a loss of Almaty, South Kazakhstan, and disproportionately likely to security.58 Southern monotowns Mangystau oblasts, as well as become “informal workers.” account for just under one-third Almaty city (see Appendix 3)— According to the ILO study,51 of the total (22 of 68),59 and youth that is, the majority of NEETs the informal economy tends to in these towns may contribute in these regions are unemployed. absorb most of the growth in the to the total number of NEETs in By contrast, in Zhambyl and labor force, especially in countries Kazakhstan. Kyzylorda oblasts, the increase in facing continuous urbanization.52 the number of urban NEETs is not As Kazakhstan urbanizes, this All in all, the prevalence of informal driven by youth unemployment. tendency is likewise becoming work and self-employment in the a common feature of its labor south of the country suggest that Youth unemployment is a serious market.53 Kazakhstan’s urban youth may be problem in many countries struggling to secure their position worldwide. Accordingly, it Southern regions also had a in the formal labor market. These ranks high on local political higher share of self-employed two indicators may be considered agendas.61 The main issue—in youth in 2016: 53 percent in contributing factors to the rise Kazakhstan as elsewhere—is that Zhambyl; 43 percent in South in the number of NEETs in the there is a mismatch between the Kazakhstan; 42 percent in regions under study. skills young people have and Kyzylorda; and 19 percent in the employment opportunities Almaty.54 Self-employment is NEET Versus Youth available.62 According to a recent highly correlated with work in the Unemployment in Urban Areas OECD report,63 65 percent of informal sector: being a formally Kazakhstani employers are not self-employed individual This section presents a satisfied with the quality of young entails both paying taxes and correlational analysis of urban graduates. This makes it difficult business reporting, requiring NEET with urban youth for young people to transition the individual to stay on top of unemployment rates. The from education to employment, constant changes to regulations,55 youth unemployment rate is the and frequently leads to them and it is therefore easier for many most widely-used labor market being excluded from the labor self-employed business people to indicator in relation to young market. stay in the informal sector. Being people. As previously mentioned, self-employed and operating an unemployed young people

CAP Fellows Paper 206 8 Transition of Unqualified School more than 17,000 high school the number of NEETs in southern Graduates to the Labor Market graduates—14,000 of whom regions. resided in southern regions— Whereas in many countries the did not continue their education The Kazakhstani government NEET phenomenon is closely in universities or vocational has attempted to give associated with abandoning schools.66 The majority (75 youth in southern regions education,64 secondary school percent) of those in southern more opportunities to earn dropout rates are negligible regions moved into the labor qualifications, as well as meet in Kazakhstan. However, a market, where they worked the demand for labor in other large number of school leavers without any qualifications. The regions. One such attempt was move directly to the labor remaining 25 percent became the “Serpin” program, intended to market without training or job unemployed or did not enter the provide educational opportunities qualifications, especially in the labor market due to other social for school graduates from the south of the country. factors (such as disabilities). southern regions (Almaty, South Despite the fact that the number Kazakhstan, Zhambyl, Kyzylorda, The transition from compulsory of unqualified youth entering the and Mangystau) in regions schooling to higher education labor market has been decreasing that are facing labor shortages or employment is an important in recent years, it remains high (North Kazakhstan, East move for all young adults. (see Table 1). Kazakhstan, , Petropavl, According to Bensmen, when and ). However, the this transition is achieved Youths who choose to take available data on the Kostanay successfully, young people have time out before entering formal and Karaganda regions show that better prospects of long-term higher education or employment the share of southern graduates employment and economic usually struggle to either return willing to study in other oblasts security; they are also more likely to education or find work.67 This is decreasing (see Table 2). Issues to be lifelong learners.65 In 2016, may contribute to the increase in such as language (southern youth

Table 1. Proportion of school graduates who moved to the labor market without any qualifications, 2015-2017, %

Region 2014 2015 2016 South Kazakhstan 34 30 26 Zhambyl 20 19 16 Almaty 25 21 18 Kyzylorda 12 11 7 Almaty city 14 12 5 Mangystau 17 16 11 Source: National Education Database

Table 2. Student enrollment under “Serpin” program in Karaganda and Kostanay regions (number of people)

2014 2015 2016 2017 Karaganda 170 175 50 cancelled Kostanay 100 150 50 25 Source: Education Departments of Karaganda and Kostanay regions

CAP Fellows Paper 206 9 Figure 8. Youth outflow from rural districts in southern regions (number of people)

Source: The Statistics Office of the Republic of Kazakhstan are Kazakh-speaking and face influencing the growth in the better access to social services difficulties in education and work number of urban NEETs is youth in the city. These employment in Russian-speaking northern migration from rural districts to prospects appeal even to young regions), health (moving from cities.69 This tendency is visible in people without higher education: the warm south to cold north southern regions, where youths, Makhmutova found that more causes allergies and severe cold), for a variety of different reasons, than half (54 percent) of young and other living conditions tend to leave villages and settle in migrants to Almaty city came create obstacles to the success cities (see Figure 8). simply because they did not have and further development of the jobs in their previous locations.73 program.68 One of the main drivers of youth outflow is poor access to A European Training Foundation Social Factors proper education in rural areas. study found that a high NEET rate Indeed, the vast majority (87 is associated with low educational Youth who remain NEETs tend to percent) of vocational schools are attainment in developing come from more disadvantaged located in cities.70 Almost half of countries like Armenia, Jordan, families and have low levels of Kazakhstan’s universities (59 of and Kyrgyzstan.74 For their part, educational attainment. They 125) are also located in southern the majority of Kazakhstani are, in many cases, inactive. In cities.71 Thus, school graduates NEETs have general secondary this section, I consider several in search of further education education or less.75 This reinforces social factors that may affect the have little choice but to move that having higher education often increase in the number of NEETs to larger cities. Accordingly, eases young people’s transition in southern regions: the urban Makhmutova’s studyfinds that to the labor market. According migration trend, the resettlement 57.4 percent of youth who have to the only study of NEET youth of ethnic repatriates, and gender settled in Almaty city originally in Kazakhstan, these individuals issues. came for education.72 They have have no knowledge of education stayed for 5-10 years (i.e. even or employment programs Urban Migration after completing their studies), provided by the government.76 considering that they have better Nor do they know about One of the main factors employment prospects and employment and youth resource

CAP Fellows Paper 206 10 centers in their regions which irregular or not registered by in other regions. could help them find education official statistics. Nevertheless, or employment. Indeed, a study it is clear that ethnic Kazakhs The vast majority (80 percent) conducted in Mangystau region represent a major flow of labor of these ethnic repatriates thus found that only 17 percent of migration. Since Kazakhstan settled in the country’s southern all unemployed people had gained its independence in regions. People of working age registered as jobseekers, allowing 1991, about one million ethnic make up 55.6 percent of them, the employment department Kazakhs have returned, primarily and many of them belong to to connect them with jobs.77 from neighboring countries: the younger generation.83 Data This lack of knowledge persists 61.5 percent from Uzbekistan, on their education attainment despite the fact that 88 percent of 12 percent from Mongolia, 11.6 show that only about one-third young people are active users of percent from China, 7.3 percent of them had higher (8.8 percent) the Internet and social platforms from Turkmenistan, 3.9 percent or vocational education (20.5 (VKontakte, WhatsApp, etc.),78 from the Russian Federation, percent) qualifications; 60.9 implying that information about and the remaining 3.7 percent percent arrived with general education and employment from other countries. Today, secondary education, while 9.8 opportunities for young people is repatriates (known as “Oralmans” had attained no education level.84 not widely distributed online and in Kazakh) constitute 5.5 percent Ramos finds that a high NEET remains unclear. of the total population and around rate is associated with a high level 10 percent of ethnic Kazakhs.82 of migration into the local labor In addition, these young people The resettlement of Oralmans market.85 The fact that a high often lack soft and hard skills.79 was carried out unevenly, without number of ethnic repatriates with They do not know how to taking into account the socio- very low educational attainment search for jobs, put together economic needs of the regions, have settled in the southern a CV, network, or impress an and was predetermined by their oblasts may have contributed to interviewer at a job interview. country of origin. The greatest the increasing numbers of NEETs Nor are they typically proficient number of Oralmans settled in in these regions. in multiple languages, meaning the Almaty (33 percent), South that they can communicate in Kazakhstan (24.3 percent), Gender only one of Kazakh or Russian.80 Mangystau (14.8 percent), and Evidently, there is much that Zhambyl (7.4 percent) oblasts, There is a global trend that far should be done to support with the remaining 20.5 percent more young women are NEETs these vulnerable young people. However, it is currently unclear Figure 9. The share of NEET women and NEET men which measures would have the in Kazakhstan, 2016, % highest return on investment in terms of helping NEETs integrate into society.

Resettlement of Ethnic Repatriates

An ILO study suggests that international migration is another factor that supports the flourishing of the informal sector.81 There is no reliable data on labor migration to Kazakhstan, since much of it is Source: The Statistics Office of the Republic of CAP Fellows Paper 206 Kazakhstan 11 than young men; females are To date, relatively little attention opportunities via social media, much more likely to be absent has been paid to young women sharing all available opportunities from education and the labor who are NEET all over the online. Local employment and force. This is often due to cultural world.90 In order to better target education departments, in expectations that women will integration policies, it is highly particular, should strengthen remain at home to undertake important to study the profile of information-sharing; domestic responsibilities after NEET women and their needs in • Encourage local non- leaving education. In some the labor market. governmental organizations countries, there are three or four to assist in improving NEETs’ times more female NEETs than Recommendations to the hard and soft skills. Such efforts male ones.86 Government for Reducing should be monitored to observe the Proportion of NEETs in their outcomes and determine A similar tendency can be Southern Regions whether they are worth pursuing. observed in Kazakhstan. Figure 9 shows the gender gap among To reduce the number of young NEET youth, demonstrating that people neither working nor women are two to four times studying at national level, the more likely to be NEETs than government should: men in southern regions, with the • Conduct large-scale research exception of South Kazakhstan. to determine the profile of NEETs. The most concerning picture is No data is currently available in Mangystau region, where one on NEET categories (disabled, in every four women is neither in voluntary NEET, family carers, employment nor in education. etc.), age groups, socio-economic backgrounds, education levels, The difference in the labor market etc. Alternatively, analog status of males and females is indicators may be added to the explained by typical gender roles existing statistical surveys (eg. steering women towards taking Labor Force Survey) care of a household, children or • Promote reconciliation other relatives. A low mean age between formal work and private of women at the time of birth and family life for women through of their first child means that part-time work, parental leave, women are engaged in caretaking online remote work, etc. early and thus are unable to enter • Evaluate the effectiveness of the workforce. This is particularly existing formal short-term and true because the burden of care informal education programs. is more heavily on the woman in Effective programs should be developing countries than in the accredited in a way that will allow developed world.87 Many of these young people to use them as a women might be interested in springboard for further education taking on freelance or part-time or career progression. work,88 yet statistics suggest that the share of part-time workers To reduce the number of young decreased by 45 percent between people neither working nor 2012 and 2016,89 implying that studying at regional level, the there are not enough of these jobs government should: available for all the women who • Better advertise employment might want one. and education or training

CAP Fellows Paper 206 12 Appendix 1. Share of urban and rural NEETs in Kazakhstan, % 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Region rural rural rural rural Kazakhstan 8.7 7.6 8.2 7 8.5 7.4 8.7 7.2 8.2 9.4 8.1 9.0 8.1 Akmola 8.1 7.0 6.6 7.0 7.7 5.2 7.6 6.1 4.3 5.5 5.6 6.3 5.8 8.7 2.7 3.7 2.5 4.7 3.4 2.4 4.3 3.8 9.5 5.6 6.4 7.8 6.3 8.9 Almaty 8.9 8.0 9.0 9.1 10.4 9.0 9.9 9.7 10.7 9.4 8.6 6.7 10.5 9.1 12.4 7.9 9.4 4.4 7.5 5.6 7.7 3.9 5.8 8.0 7.6 8.2 8.5 7.6 West 11.9 7.8 8.9 6.1 6.8 4.9 5.3 3.7 3.5 4.7 2.7 4.2 2.1 4.2 Kazakhstan Zhambyl 8.3 6.6 9.4 8.3 15.7 7.1 10.4 7.4 8.0 14.0 15.7 12.3 15.7 Karagandy 10.8 8.1 9.8 5.8 9.7 8.1 7.2 5.3 12.8 12.6 12.7 12.9 12.3 Kostanay 9.8 6.5 8.7 6.3 6.7 6.0 6.9 3.2 4.8 6.0 5.2 6.9 4.6 5.5 Kyzylorda 9.2 9.6 8.0 7.6 11.8 9.1 10.6 11.2 15.5 14.1 11.6 10.4 15.0 Mangystau 13.6 12.9 12.9 12.1 11.1 22.9 11.2 14.6 11.0 21.3 7.4 16.2 15.1 South 9.8 6.6 9.1 6.2 9.4 5.7 10.1 4.2 6.9 8.7 6.3 11.0 5.9 Kazakhstan Pavlodar 8.0 2.5 8.5 2.3 7.7 2.6 7.1 3.7 6.2 2.4 5.2 3.9 6.7 North 8.0 6.7 10.9 6.3 10.9 7.5 8.7 10.9 9.6 7.0 8.7 5.1 8.3 8.3 Kazakhstan East 7.1 13.5 8.2 12.1 5.6 10.7 6.3 11.7 7.3 8.7 7.4 9.4 6.2 Kazakhstan Astana city 11.9 - 11.6 - 14.7 - 17.0 - 7.9 - 6.8 - 6.6 - Almaty city 5.8 - 4.5 - 4.5 - 6.9 - 7.6 - 8.6 - 7.7 -

Source: The Statistics Office of the Republic of Kazakhstan

CAP Fellows Paper 206 13 Appendix 2. Youth unemployment rate in urban versus rural settlements in Kazakhstan, % 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Region T U R T U R T U R T U R T U R T U R Kazakhstan 6.1 6.8 5.3 5.4 6.1 4.5 5.5 6.2 4.7 4.2 5.0 3.4 4.3 4.8 3.7 4.1 4.6 3.5 Akmola 5.4 6.2 4.8 5.2 5.9 4.6 5.2 7.0 3.6 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.4 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.3 Aktobe 4.8 3.9 5.8 4.7 5.2 4.0 3.2 4.1 1.4 3.1 4.1 1.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.1 2.6 Almaty 3.8 3.0 4.0 3.7 3.8 3.7 6.5 6.5 6.5 3.1 3.3 3.1 2.5 2.7 2.4 3.1 4.1 2.8 Atyrau 4.5 6.3 3.2 3.5 4.1 2.9 3.5 5.3 1.6 3.2 2.3 3.9 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.2 3.2 1.4 West Ka- zakhstan 5.2 3.7 6.1 6.1 7.2 5.5 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.3 3.9 4.5 4.1 3.8 4.3 4.0 3.8 4.1 Zhambyl 6.5 5.6 7.0 7.9 12.0 6.0 7.4 11.0 5.6 5.2 5.4 5.1 4.9 4.7 5.0 4.3 4.3 4.2 Karagandy 6.3 6.1 6.9 5.1 5.3 4.3 4.4 4.1 5.4 4.3 4.6 3.3 5.0 5.1 4.3 5.1 5.2 4.8 Kostanay 7.5 9.0 6.3 6.0 6.0 5.9 3.5 4.9 2.4 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.0 Kyzylorda 6.6 6.2 6.9 6.5 6.2 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.7 5.1 4.1 5.6 4.6 4.1 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.7 Mangystau 7.5 7.3 7.7 4.6 5.2 3.7 7.5 7.3 7.6 5.6 4.5 7.0 4.2 3.9 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.7 South Kazakhstan 5.3 7.1 4.4 4.9 6.0 4.2 3.4 5.1 2.5 2.7 4.3 2.0 4.2 4.4 4.1 3.9 4.3 3.7 Pavlodar 6.8 9.8 1.8 5.2 7.2 2.0 6.0 7.2 3.9 2.7 3.3 1.6 3.2 3.7 2.4 3.0 3.4 2.3 North Kazakhstan 7.3 8.3 6.8 6.5 7.1 6.1 7.6 6.0 9.1 3.8 2.7 4.5 2.9 1.8 3.9 3.0 2.6 3.4 East Kazakhstan 7.3 7.8 6.6 6.0 6.8 4.6 6.3 6.6 5.8 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.3 3.8 5.2 3.1 2.4 4.4 Astana city 8.5 8.5 - 6.8 6.8 - 4.9 4.9 - 6.3 6.3 - 5.8 5.8 - 4.8 4.8 - Almaty city 7.0 7.0 - 5.4 5.4 - 8.5 8.5 - 8.2 8.2 - 7.4 7.4 - 6.9 6.9 -

T = Total U = Urban R = Rural Source: The Statistics Office of the Republic of Kazakhstan

CAP Fellows Paper 206 14 Appendix 3. Correlation of variables: urban NEET and urban youth unemployment, 2010-2016, %

Almaty oblast, r=0.2 Mangystau oblast, r=0.4

South Kazakhstan oblast, r=0.7 Almaty city, r=0.4

Zhambyl oblast, r=-0.5 Kyzylorda oblast, r=-0.7

Source: The Statistics Office of the Republic of Kazakhstan

CAP Fellows Paper 206 15 1 Marco Ranzani and Furio Ca- 20 Sara Elder, “What Does NEETs 21, no. 5 (2018): 653-668. DOI:10.1 millo Rosati, “The NEET Trap: A Mean and Why is the Concept So 080/13676261.2017.1406073. Dynamic Analysis for Mexico,” Easily Misinterpreted?” ILO Techni- 9 Bacher et al., “Not in Education, 2012. See also Ummuhan Bar- cal Brief 1 (2015). Employment or Training.” dak, Martiño Rubal Maseda, and 21 The NEET indicator differs slightly 10 World Bank, UNICEF, and ILO, Francesca Rosso, “Young People from the ILO’s data collection in Ja- “NEET Youth Dynamics in Indone- Not in Employment, Education or pan. It does not include young wom- sia and Brazil: A Cohort Analysis,” Training (NEET): An Overview in en who are engaged in housework Understanding Children’s Work ETF Partner Countries,” Europe- nor individuals with disabilities. Programme, Rome, March 2013. an Training Foundation, 2015. NEET also refers to individuals aged 11 Bardak, Rubal Maseda, and Rosso, Social Exclusion Unit, “Bridging 15 to 34 rather than 15-24 or 15-29. “Young People Not in Employment.” the Gap: New Opportunities for 22 Bardak, Rubal Maseda, and Rosso, 12 Tuukka Toivonen, “The Emer- 16-18 Year Olds Not in Educa- “Young People Not in Employment.” gence of Youth Independence Sup- tion, Training or Employment,” 23 Ahmed Driouchi and Tahar Har- port Policy in Japan: How ‘NEET’ London: Social Exclusion Unit 1 kat, “Youth Inclusion Policies and and the Connexions Service were (1999). NEETs’ Targeting Requirements Transferred into the Japanese Con- 2 Organisation for Economic in Arab Countries,” MPRA Paper text” (paper prepared for the 81st Co-operation and Development 80622 (2017). convention of the Japan Sociological (OECD), “Building Inclusive 24 Carcillo, Fernandez, Königs, and Society, November 23-24, 2008). Labour Markets in Kazakhstan: A Minea, “NEET Youth in the After- 13 Alan Robert Teo and Albert C. Focus on Youth, Older Workers math.” Gaw, “Hikikomori, A Japanese and People with Disabilities,” 25 Ministry of the National Economy Culture-Bound Syndrome of So- 2017. of the Republic of Kazakhstan, “De- cial Withdrawal? A Proposal for 3 The first and only study is D.E. mograficheskii prognoz Respubliki DSM-V,” The Journal of Nervous Ashimkhanova et al., “Guidelines Kazakhstan: osnovye trendy, vyzovy, and Mental Disease 198, no. 6 for Working with Youth in the prakticheskie rekomendatsii,” 2014. (2010): 444. NEET Category,” 2017. Currently available only for youth 14 Ibid. 4 Social Exclusion Unit, “Bridging aged 16-24. 15 Ibid. the Gap: New Opportunities for 26 The youth labor force is the sum of 16 Stéphane Carcillo, Rodrigo 16-18 Year Olds Not in Education, the number of employed and unem- Fernandez, Sebastian Königs, and Training or Employment,” ployed young people in the country. Andreea Minea, “NEET Youth London: Social Exclusion Unit 1 27 “Labor Force Indicators,” Statis- in the Aftermath of the Crisis: (1999). tics Office of the Ministry of Na- Challenges and Policies,” OECD 5 Ibid. tional Economy of the Republic of Social, Employment and Migra- 6 Lisa Russell, Robin Kazakhstan, 2016. tion Working Papers, 2015. DOI: Simmons, and Ron Thompson, 28 “Neformal’naia zaniatost’ molo- 10.1787/5js6363503f6-en “Conceptualising the Lives dezhi v monogorodakh,” Analitich- 17 Anna Zudina, “What Makes Youth of NEET Young People: eskaia gruppa “Kipr,” 2018, http:// Become NEET? The Evidence from Structuration Theory and agkipr.kz/archives/1054, accessed Russian LFS,” Higher School of Eco- ‘Disengagement,’” Education, May 16, 2018. nomics Research Paper No. WP BRP Knowledge and Economy 5, no. 3 29 Russian: naemnye rabotniki. 177/EC/2017, October 28, 2017. (2011): 89-106. 30 International Labour Organiza- 18 Stefano Scarpetta, Anne Sonnet, 7 Johann Bacher, Dennis tion, Key Indicators of the Labour and Thomas Manfredi, “Rising Tamesberger, Heinz Leitgöb, Market, Ninth edition (Geneva: Youth Unemployment During the and Thomas Lankmayer, “Not International Labour Office, 2016). Crisis: How to Prevent Negative in Education, Employment or 31 Russian: Samostoiatel’no zani- Long-Term Consequences on a Gen- Training: Causes, Characteristics atye. eration?” OECD Social, Employment of NEET-Affected Youth and 32 Russian: Neproduktivno samoza- and Migration Working Papers 106, Exit Strategies in Austria,” niatye. 2010. Institut für Sozial- und 33 “Ekonomicheskaia aktivnost’ 19 Organisation for Economic Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Linz, naseleniia Kazakhstana,” Statistics Co-operation and Development Austria, 2014. Office of the Ministry of National (OECD), “Off to a Good Start? 8 Valerija Botrić and Iva Tomić, Economy of the Republic of Kazakh- Jobs for Youth,” OECD Publish- “EU-Mediterranean Youths in the stan, Astana, 2017. ing, 2010. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/ Crisis: Substitution vs. Income 34 ILO, Key Indicators of the Labour 10.1787/9789264096127-en. Effect,” Journal of Youth Studies Market.

CAP Fellows Paper 206 16 Figure 1. NEET rate in Kazakhstan and the world, 2016, % Figure 1. NEET rate in Kazakhstan and the world, 2016, %

35 International Labour Organi- around the World: New Results 59 “Perechen’ malykh i monogorodov zation, “Transitioning from the for 158 Countries over 1991-2015,” Respubliki Kazakhstan,” damu.kz, Informal to the Formal Economy,” CESifo Working Paper Series No. https://damu.kz/dorozhnaya-kar- Report V (1), International Labour 6430 (2017). ta-biznesa-2020/subsidiro- Conference, 103rd Session, 2014. 46 Ibid. vanie-proektov-msb-v-ramka- 36 Aged 15-29. 47 ILO, Key Indicators of the Labour kh-edinoy-programmy-dkb-2020/ 37 ILO, Key Indicators of the Labour Market. perechen-malykh-i-monogoro- Market. 48 G.T. Alimbekova, A.A. Shabdeno- dov-respubliki-kazakhstan.php, 38 OECD, “Building Inclusive Labour va, and Nilim Baruah, “Employment accessed April 14, 2018. Markets in Kazakhstan.” of Migrant Workers in the Informal 60 ILO, Key Indicators of the Labour 39 Organisation for Economic Co-op- Economy in Kazakhstan: A Study of Market. eration and Development (OECD), Southern Kazakhstan,” ILO Subre- 61 Carcillo, Fernandez, Königs, and Multi-Dimensional Review of Ka- gional Office for Eastern Europe and Minea, “NEET Youth in the After- zakhstan (Paris: OECD Publishing, , 2009. math.” 2016). 49 Labor Force Indicators,” Statistics 62 Bardak, Rubal Maseda, and Rosso, 40 Carcillo, Fernandez, Königs, and Office of the Ministry of National “Young People Not in Employment.” Minea, “NEET Youth in the After- Economy of the Republic of Kazakh- 63 OECD, “Building Inclusive Labour math”; Sher Verick, “Who is Hit stan, 2017. Markets in Kazakhstan.” Hardest during a Financial Crisis? 50 Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic 64 A. Dyson and G. Squires, eds., The Vulnerability of Young Men and Studies, “Sovremennoe sostoianie “Early School Leaving and Learn- Women to Unemployment in an rynka truda v Kazakhstane,” 2017; ers with Disabilities and/or Special Economic Downturn,” in Iyanatul Statistics Office of the Ministry of Educational Needs: A Review of Islam and Sher Verick, eds., From National Economy of the Republic the Research Evidence Focusing on the Great Recession to Labour Mar- of Kazakhstan, “Labor Force Indica- Europe,” European Agency for Spe- ket Recovery: Issues, Evidence and tors—2017.” cial Needs and Inclusive Education, Policy Options (Basingstoke: ILO/ 51 Ibid. Odense, Denmark, 2016. Palgrave Macmillan, 2010); Misbah 52 Ibid. 65 J. Benseman, “Effective Programs Tanveer Choudhry, Enrico Marel- 53 Berikbol Dukeyev, “Ethnic Return for NEET Young People: A Case li, and Marcello Signorelli, “Youth Migration in Kazakhstan: Shifting Study Evaluation,” Social Work Unemployment Rate and Impact State Dynamics, Changing Media Review 18, no. 3 (2006). of Financial Crises,” Internation- Discourses,” Central Asia Program 66 “Employment Information of al Journal of Manpower 33, no. 1 Paper 183 (2017). High School Graduates (After Grade (2012): 76-95. 54 Statistics Office of the Ministry of 11),” National Education Database, 41 Massimiliano Mascherini, Lidia National Economy of the Republic 2016. Salvatore, Anja Meierkord, and of Kazakhstan, “ Labor Force Indica- 67 “Census on Youths NEET: Report Jean-Marie Jungblut, NEETs: tors—2017.” on Findings,” European Social Fund Young People Not in Employment, 55 Aiman Zhussupova, “Fenomen ESF-3.231, 2015. Education or Training: Character- samozaniatosti v Kazakhstane kak 68 Based on the results of focus istics, Costs and Policy Responses in otrazhenie spetsifiki sotsial’no-eko- groups conducted by the author in Europe (Luxembourg: Publications nomicheskogo razvitiia,” Institut Kostanay and Karaganda regions in Office of the European Union, 2012). mirovoi ekonomiki i politiki pri May 2017. 42 Kazakh: oblys; Russian: oblast. Fonde Pervogo Prezidenta Respubli- 69 Meruyert Makhmutova, “Vnu- 43 Paschal B. Mihyo and Truphena E. ki Kazakhstan—Lidera natsii, 2013. trenniaia migratsiia molodezhi v Mukuna, eds., Urban Youth Unem- 56 OECD, “Multi-Dimensional Re- Kazakhstane: na primere g. Almaty,” ployment in Eastern and Southern view of Kazakhstan.” 2013. Africa: Features, Challenges, Con- 57 A monotown (Rus.: monogorod) 70 “Education Indicators: Number of sequences and Cut-Back Strategies is a city/town whose economy is Vocational Schools,” Statistics Office (Ethiopia: Organisation for Social dominated by a single industry or of the Ministry of National Econo- Science Research in Eastern and company. my of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Southern Africa (OSSREA), 2015). 58 Nurzhan Sh. Al’zhanova and 2016, https://taldau.stat.gov.kz/ru/ 44 Zh. A. Kulekeyev, “Poblemy rynka Raisa D. Nurzhaubayeva, “Problemy Search/SearchByKeyWord. truda i zaniatosti v Kazakhstane,” neformal’noi zaniatosti naseleni- 71 “Education Indicators: Number Applied Economics Research Cen- ia monogorodov Kazakhstana v of Higher Education Institutions,” tre, 2015. usloviakh globalizatsii,” Al-Farabi Statistics Office of the Ministry of 45 Leandro Medina and Friedrich Kazakh National University, Almaty, National Economy of the Republic Schneider, “Shadow Economies Kazakhstan, 2015. of Kazakhstan, 2016, https://taldau. stat.gov.kz/ru/Search/Search- CAP Fellows Paper 206 17 Figure 1. NEET rate in Kazakhstan and the world, 2016, % Figure 1. NEET rate in Kazakhstan and the world, 2016, %

ByKeyWord. groups conducted by the author in 72 Makhmutova, “Vnutrenniaia mi- Kostanay and Karaganda regions in gratsiia molodezhi.” May 2017. 73 Ibid. 89 Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic 74 Bardak, Rubal Maseda, and Rosso, Studies, “Sovremennoe sostoyanie “Young People Not in Employment.” rynka truda v Kazakhstane.” 75 OECD, “Building Inclusive 90 Carolina V. Zuccotti and Jacque- Labour Markets in Kazakhstan.” line O’Reilly, “Ethnicity, Gender No region-specific information is and Household Effects on Becoming available. NEET: An Intersectional Analysis,” 76 Ashimkhanova et al., “Guidelines Work, Employment and Society for Working with Youth.” (2018). 77 “Zhastar zhetstikteri” Foundation and United Nations Development Program, “Issledovanie rynka truda v Mangistauskoi oblasti: podgotovka rekomendatsii po balansirovaniiu sprosa i predlozheniia,” 2015. 78 Tolganay Umbetaliyeva, Botagoz Rakisheva, and Peer Teschendorf, “Youth in Central Asia: Kazakhstan. Based on a Sociological Survey,” Friedrich Ebert Foundation Kazakh- stan, 2016; results of focus groups conducted by the author in Kostanay and Karaganda regions in May 2017. 79 Based on the results of focus groups conducted by the author in Kostanay and Karaganda regions in May 2017. 80 Ibid. 81 Alimbekova, Shabdenova, and Baruah, “Employment of Migrant Workers in the Informal Economy.” 82 “Informatsiia po etnicheskoi migratsii na 16 avgusta, 2016 goda,” Ministry of Labor and Social Pro- tection of the Republic of Kazakh- stan, http://www.enbek.gov.kz/ ru/node/338787, accessed April 6, 2018. 83 No data available on age distribu- tion of Oralmans. 84 Ministry of the National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, “De- mograficheskii prognoz Respubliki Kazakhstan.” 85 Raul Ramos, “Migration Aspi- rations among NEETs in Selected MENA Countries,” Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) 11146 (2017). 86 Bardak, Rubal Maseda, and Ros- so, “Young People Not in Employ- ment.” 87 Ibid. 88 Based on the results of focus

CAP Fellows Paper 206 18