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ANZA BORREGO RICE Oak Grove DESERT STATE PARK

US NAVAL WEAPONS FIRE CAMP PENDLETON STATION FALLBROOK Fallbrook !"a$ Aª AMMO FIRE Pala

O'Neil A¨ Lake Winterwarm STATE PARK

Palomar Mountain S Riv er a n ta Lu ri i a s R rg e a y Pauma Valley M R ta iv n er Sa Lilac Bonsall Rincon Springs POOMACHA FIRE !"^$ ²¶ Warner Springs

Windmill Lake

Whelan r e Guajome Lake Lake iv San Luis Re y R A¨ ANZA BORREGO A¨ Lake DESERT STATE PARK Henshaw Borrego Springs Turner ²¶ Reservoir Aª

VISTA Valley Center Ranchita Morettis ANZA BORREGO OCEANSIDE DESERT STATE PARK e k Cr e a Vista Buen A© Lake Calaveras Lake Wohlford Jesmond Dene Dixon Lake ²¶ reek nda C io SAN MARCOS ed a H Agu ²¶ Agua Hedionda Lagoon ²¶ ESCONDIDO Aª WITCH FIRE Lake CARLSBAD San Marcos Sutherland Reservoir Santa Ysabel The Estimation Process La Costa ek The Demographic Calculation: The Housing Unit Method of Population Estimation e San Pasqual k os Cr e rc Harmony Grove re S a el C The population of any given area is equal to the sum of household population (persons living in a housing an M sab Santa Y !"a$ A© A© unit) and non-household population (persons living in group quarters facilities). Thus, total population can Del Dios Olivenhain be represented by the following identity: Reservoir Aª Julian Population = Household Population + Non-Household Population reek C id o Banner cond ENCINITAS !"^$ Es where Household Population = Housing Units x Occupancy Rate x Persons per Household San Dieguito r Reservoir e Ramona iv A© R

²¶ o g and Non-Household Population information is derived from an annual account of group quarters Olivenhain ie D n facility (dormitory, barracks, prison, convalescent home, etc…) residents. Lake a S Rancho Bernardo Ramona Rancho Santa Fe PACIFIC OCEAN The GIS Component: Counting the Affected Housing Units San Elijo Lagoon Lake San Diego Country Estates SANDAG maintains a spatial inventory of all housing units and group quarters facilities within the region. Poway Lusardi Creek Each housing unit and group quarters facility is stored in a point feature class in an SDE geodatabase that I M

Cuyamaca P

Lomas Santa Fe Reservoir includes the unit count for housing units and the facility population for group quarters facilities. This E R

r I SOLANA BEACH e spatial inventory was the basis for a point-in-polygon overlay method using a custom application to tally A v

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to C San Diegui the number of housing units under evacuation orders. O U

San Dieguito Lagoon N

Penasquitos ek T re C Y r By overlaying the evacuation area boundary onto the housing unit point layer, SANDAG counted more ²¶ e POWAY uld ?z Bo than 187,000 housing units in the evacuation area. @?56 DEL MAR ²¶ Carmel Valley In addition, several group quarters facilities (prisons, convalescent homes, dormitories, and other

itos Creek San Vicente residential facilities) were located within the evacuation area. The population within these facilities was qu as Reservoir n CUYAMACA RANCHO Los Penasquitos Lagoon e estimated to be approximately 7,000 residents. P Lo s STATE PARK Miramar Mira Mesa Reservoir Completing the Estimate of Evacuated Population Aª As noted above, SANDAG found that more than 187,000 housing units were located within the areas under Sorrento Valley ²¶ Scripps Miramar Ranch fire evacuation orders. However, to turn housing unit counts into population estimates, we needed two additional pieces of information: occupancy rates and persons per occupied household. These two pieces of r El Capitan e v i information are available for neighborhoods (roughly equivalent to Census Tracts) within San Diego Reservoir R

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e t a County. We applied the neighborhood-level occupancy and persons per household rates to the units in each r e w !"^$ R iv t go e neighborhood. On average, the area under evacuation orders had a 94.7% occupancy rate (5.3% vacancy) e e MARINE CORPS AIR STATION MIRAMAR Di n w !"a$ Sa S and 2.83 persons per household. Thus, SANDAG estimated a household population of nearly 508,000 SANTEE within the evacuation area. By adding in the 7,000 affected group quarters residents, SANDAG estimated %&(s 2007 San Diego Wildfires: Santee Blossom Valley that more than 515,000 residents were under evacuation orders during the 2007 firestorm in the San Diego Lakes ?h Lakeside region. ?z Flinn Springs Half a Million People Evacuated Descanso Overlay process: Select housing units and group quarters resident population information from !"_$ user-defined area Alpine Harbison Canyon Pine Valley r (Where Did That Number Come From?) e v i Palo Verde o R Lake ieg Crest an D GIS technology was a key component of how SANDAG estimated the evacuated population in the S A× lley Creek j a San Diego region during the October 2007 Wildfires. Analysts at SANDAG used spatial information Pine V Lake EL CAJON Loveland on housing and population distribution, in combination with established demographic techniques, to Murray Mission Dehesa Reservoir l arrive at a reliable estimate of the number of people affected by the wildfires. Bay Aù ²¶ j !"_$ Corte Estimate of Madera Lake Demographic As part of the agency’s ongoing forecasting/modeling responsibilities, SANDAG maintains a spatial Population and Boundary for Estimation Area j Calculations r inventory of all housing units and group quarters facilities (military barracks, dorms, prisons, ?j ive Housing r R l te j convalescent homes, etc…) within the San Diego region. This information was vital for the 2007 fire %&(s tw a j ee j j Housing Inventory evacuation estimates, as described to the right. Sw l Jamacha l l Group Quarters Residents l SAN DIEGO AÀ Rancho San Diego Fire and Evacuation Areas ²¶ LEMON ?Þ GROVE Spring Valley ²¶ San Diego Bay A× Jamul Extent of Burn Area

Evacuation Zone Barrett Sweetwater Lake Reservoir Lake A§ Morena ²¶ Shelter (capacity of 500 or more) Cottonwoo NATIONAL d Cr AÀ eek Housing Density Boulevard CORONADO CITY r ek k Morena Village e e e Riv r e er C r A§ t a C a r w Bonita u t d e lz !"_$ e o

w u ?j S Upper Otay o AÀ 1 Dot Represents 50 Housing Units D HARRIS FIRE

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1000 Housing Units/Square Mile C

Lower Otay Reservoir CHULA VISTA Jacumba Area of Detail A× Campo Evacuation Zone, Fire Perimeter, and Shelter data provided Barrett Junction Potrero NIA by the San Diego County Office of Emergency Services. ICA/CALIFOR ES OF AMER UNITED STAT s Otay Rive !"^$ %&( r ANOS/BAJA AÀ IDOS MEXIC Portions of this product may contain geographic information San Diego Association of Governments ESTADOS UN copyrighted by SanGIS. All Rights Reserved. 401 B Street, Suite 800 Portions of this map contain information from the San Diego San Diego, California 92101 USA IMPERIAL BEACH Association of Governments (SANDAG) Regional (619) 699-1900 Information System. This product cannot be reproduced E-mail: [email protected] AÛ without the written permission of SANDAG. Web site: www.sandag.org Estuary

Tijuana River San Ysidro 0 2.5 5 Miles ¯ August 2008