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Pension Patterns and Challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa World Bank Pensions Core Course April 30, 2015

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Pension Patterns and Challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa World Bank Pensions Core Course April 30, 2015 Pension Patterns and Challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa World Bank Pensions Core Course April 30, 2015 Mark C. Dorfman Pensions Global Solutions Group The World Bank Organization 1. Pension Patterns & Challenges a. Scheme Design b. Enabling conditions: Demographics, household composition, poverty and growth c. Coverage d. Adequacy and affordability e. Sustainability 2. Questions for discussion Scheme Design 3 Pension scheme design National Scheme Separate or Integrated with National Civil Servants Schemes Design Scheme Contributory and Funding Non-Contributory Elderly Assistance Separate from Integrated with Occupational National National Scheme (no national Provident Funded Scheme Scheme scheme) PAYG Pension- Means- Pilot PAYG DB Fund DC Noncontrib. DB FDB FDC Universal Tested Tested Scheme 1 Angola √ √ √ 2 Benin √ √ √ 3 Botswana √ √ √ 4 Burkina Faso √ √ √ 5 Burundi √ √ √ 6 Cameroon √ √ √ 7 Cape Verde √ √ 1/ √ √ 8 Central African Rep. √ √ √ 9 Chad √ √ √ 10 Congo, Dem. Rep. √ √ √ 11 Congo, Rep. √ √ √ 12 Cote d'Ivoire √ √ √ 13 Ethiopia √ √ √ 14 Gambia, The √ √ √ 15 Ghana √ √ √ 2/ √ √ 16 Guinea √ √ √ 17 Guinea-Bissau √ √ √ 18 Kenya √ √ √ √ 19 Lesotho √ √ √ 20 Liberia √ √ 3/ √ 21 Madagascar √ √ √ 22 Malawi √ √ √ 23 Mali √ √ √ 24 Mauritania √ √ √ 25 Mauritius √ √ √ √ 26 Mozambique √ √ √ √ 27 Namibia √ √ √ 28 Niger √ √ √ 29 Nigeria √ √ √ √ 30 Rwanda √ √ √ 31 Sao Tome & Principe √ √ √ 32 Senegal √ √ √ 33 Seychelles √ √ √ √ 34 Sierra Leone √ √ 4/ √ 35 Somaliland 5/ 5/ 36 South Africa √ √ √ √ 37 South Sudan 5/ 5/ 38 Sudan √ √ 7/ 39 Swaziland √ √ √ √ 40 Tanzania √ √ √ 41 Togo √ √ √ 42 Uganda √ √ √ √ 43 Zambia √ √ 6/ √ √ 44 Zimbabwe √ √ √ 1/ Integrated for civil servants hired beginning in 2005. 2/ Integrated first in 1972 and then further integrated in 1991. 3/ Civil servants are integrated into the national scheme and some receive a supplementary benefit from the Treasury. 4/ Integrated for new civil servants beginning in 2002. 5/ Legislation is being developed to constitute a formal pension scheme for civil servants. 6/ Integrated for new civil servants hired after January 1, 2010. 7/ The contributions for the civil service scheme cannot be identified. Enabling Conditions: Demographics, Household Composition, Poverty & Growth 5 Old Age Dependency Rates – low but growing Projected Old Age Dependency Ratios (Age 65+/age 15-64) Source: World Bank database based on World Population Projections, 2010 revision. Note: Mauritius and Seychelles have not been included. Demographic window offers a positive environment for reform Total Dependency Ratio Projections (Percent) 120 100 2010 2050 80 60 Total Depdency Rate Depdency Total 40 20 0 Source: United Nations, Population Division, Population Projections, 2012 Revision, Household composition 87% of elderly live with non-elderly Percent of elderly living in households with non-elderly 100.0% Median = 86.7% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Source: World Bank ASPIRE database, accessed November 2014. Growth Projections offer a Positive Environment for Most Recent and Projected Annual Real GDP Growth Rates 15.0% 1995-2009 2010-2014 Projected 2015-2019 13.2% 12.9% 12.1% 11.5%11.5% 11.1% 10.8% 10.5% 10.0%10.1%10.1% 9.8% 9.9%10.0% 10.0% 9.3% 8.9% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 8.6% 8.7% 8.4% 8.4% 8.6% 8.2% 8.4% 8.1% 8.1% 8.2% 7.7% 7.8% 7.7% 7.2% 7.0% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 6.8% 6.8% 6.6% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 5.5% 5.7% 5.6% 5.0% 4.6% 4.3% GDP Growth GDP 0.0% -5.0% Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, 2015. High poverty levels < $1.25/day & weak correlation with GDP/capita GDP per capita and Poverty Headcount (US$ left axis, percent right axis) 12,000 100 GDP per Capita - US$ - PPP 87.7 90 Poverty Headcount (% of 'Poverty & Income per Capita (% of Population - 83.8 US$1.25/day) 10,000 81.3 80 74.5 72.1 68.0 67.9 67.8 70 8,000 62.8 61.6 PPP 59.6 - 60 54.1 US$ 51.7 - 50.4 6,000 50 44.6 43.6 43.4 43.4 43.3 40.6 38.7 38.0 40 GDP Per Capita Capita GDPPer 33.5 % of Population ($1.25/day) Population % of 4,000 30.7 - 28.6 30 23.8 23.4 19.8 20 2,000 13.8 9.6 10 Headcount Poverty - 0 Source: World Economic Indicators, 2012. Note: Poverty headcount is from the most recent year between 2005 and 2012. The GDP per capita data is from 2012. The lack of uniformity between the poverty headcount figures and the GDP per capita figures reflects the difference in data points. Coverage 11 What is the coverage gap? • Social pensions in 8 of 47 countries + very weak SSNs Coverage Gaps • Poor but improving regulation of occupational schemes. Occupational & retirement wage retirement - Individual Pensions Savings Social assistance for Minimum Pension households &/or elderly. Mandatory, contributory scheme Pension benefit as a percent of individual pre benefitpercentindividualaofas Pension Individual pre-retirement wage as a % of the average wage in the economy Key Challenge – Labor force coverage 60% Occupational Schemes Civil Service National Scheme 50% 70% 60% 40% 50% Civil Service Coverage as a % of Total 40% 68.6% 30% 30% 20% 51.6% 10% % of LaborForceCovered 20% 0% 25.5% 10% 18.8%17.6% 12.8% 10.4% 10.4% 11.4% 8.8%9.4% 10.0% 6.8%7.9% 7.6% 5.2% 5.8% 3.7% 4.8%4.9% 4.2%4.5%5.0%5.0% 4.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.5% 3.1% 0% 0.8%0.8% 1.5%0.9% 1.7% Mali Togo Chad Niger Benin Kenya Sudan Ghana Liberia Angola Nigeria Zambia Malawi Uganda Senegal Lesotho Burundi Namibia Tanzania Mauritius Botswana Swaziland Seychelles Cameroon Zimbabwe Rwanda 1/ Rwanda Ethiopia 1/ Ethiopia Mauritania Cape Verde Cape Congo, Rep. Congo, Madagascar South Africa South Sierra Leone Sierra Gambia, The Gambia, Cote d'Ivoire Cote Burkina Faso Mozambique Sao Tome and… Tome Sao Central African… Central Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Coverage – strongly correlated w/GDP per capita 60.0% Mauritius South National Scheme + Civil Service Scheme + Occupational Scheme Africa Coverage (% of Labour Force) y = 3E-05x + 0.0159 R² = 0.6771 50.0% Active coverage vs Income per capita 1 y = -5E-10x2 + 4E-05x + 0.0198 R² = 0.807 0.9 40.0% 0.8 0.7 United Kingdom Swaziland Czech Republic 0.6 0.5 30.0% 0.4 Brazil 0.3 Mongolia Jordan 0.2 Active members members Active (% Working Age Population) India 0.1 Ghana The Gambia 20.0% 0 0 Niger 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 Zimbabwe Nigeria Income per capita (Thousands) Sao Tome & Principe Malawi, DRC, Mauritania Botswana Central African Zambia Cape Verde Namibia Republic, Niger Kenya Ghana 10.0% Sierra Leone Burundi Cote d' Ivoire Republic of Congo Liberia Senegal Sudan Lesotho Tanzania, Burkina Faso, Togo, Chad Ethiopia Rwanda Angola 0.0% - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Contributory pensions generally cover those w/wage incomes & better off in retirement 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Coverage in poorest quintile (%) - Old Age Contributory Coverage in 2nd quintile (%) - Old Age Contributory Coverage in 3rd quintile (%) - Old Age Contributory Coverage in 4th quintile (%) - Old Age Contributory Coverage in richest quintile (%) - Old Age Contributory Source: The World Bank, ASPIRE database, 2014 Elderly coverage weak (except in countries with non-contributory schemes) Elderly and Labor Force Coverage (Late 2000s; percent of elderly over eligibility age; percent of labor force) 100 98.5 100.0100.0100.0100.0 92.9 94.3 89.2 90 93.092.4 93.1 89.1 Elderly Coverage Labor Force Coverage 86.0 80 69.7 70 73.4 65.0 60 57.5 56.1 50 51.5 47.0 41.4 44.3 39.0 40 37.138.0 34.0 33.6 29.5 30 Percent (of elderly or labor force) labor or elderly (of Percent 29.5 25 20.1 20 16.6 17.4 11.0 11.8 9.3 8.8 8.9 10.09.8 10 7.4 7.7 12 7.3 5.5 5.4 6.3 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.3 5.2 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.0 3.2 3.6 2.8 3.2 9 93.4 2.7 1.5 1.7 7.7 7.9 2.3 1.3 0.9 1.6 2.0 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.6 5.4 5.7 6.11.3 6.5 6.6 0.0 1.0 0.7 - Mali Togo Chad Niger Benin Kenya Sudan World Ghana Liberia Guinea Nigeria Zambia Malawi Median Uganda Senegal Burundi Lesotho Rwanda Average Ethiopia Namibia Tanzania Mauritius Botswana Swaziland Seychelles Zimbabwe Cameroon Mauritania Cape Verde Middle East Congo, Rep. Congo, Madagascar South Africa Sierra Leone Sierra Gambia, The Gambia, Cote d'Ivoire Burkina FasoBurkina Mozambique North America Western EuropeWestern Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Asia and the Pacific Asia and the Developed economies Developing economies Sao Tome and Principe Sao Tome Central African Republic African Central Central and Eastern Europe Latin America and the Caribbean America andLatin the Sources: ILO, World Bank, country administrative data. What has contributed to the coverage challenge? . Low, volatile & non-wage incomes (w/populations substantially rural and informal) . Payroll-tax contributory schemes best aligned to formal sector employment Contribution rates may discourage coverage & compliance Vesting periods penalize informality Discretionary indexation creates uncertainty Compliance & enforcement costly • Voluntary occupational & individual schemes offer options but need to be better regulated & supervised in many countries to ensure public confidence.
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