Russian, Islamic and American Influences in Central Asia Since 1991
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
RUSSIAN, ISLAMIC AND AMERICAN INFLUENCES IN CENTRAL ASIA SINCE 1991 HALA HADDAD PhD THESIS SCHOOL OF SLAVONIC AND EAST EUROPEAN STUDIES UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON 2007 UMI Number: U591218 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U591218 Published by ProQuest LLC 2013. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 CONTENTS ABSTRACT _____________________________________________________________________________ 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ____________________________________________________________ 6 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS __________________________________________________________ 7 1.0 INTRODUCTION ______________________________________________________________ 9 1.1 A im s o f t h e T h e s is _____________________________________________________________ 9 1.2 The Meaning of Power a n d I n f lu e n c e _____________________________________ 10 1.3 Contributions ________________________________________________________________19 1.4 L iterature R e v i e w __________________________________________________________21 1.5 M e t h o d o l o g y ______________________________________________________________ 47 1.6 O u t l in e o f C h a p t e r s ________________________________________________________ 50 2.0 THE INTERNAL POLITICS OF CENTRAL ASIA _______________________ 56 2.1 P erestroika a n d t h e D isintegration o f t h e U S S R _____________________ 56 2.2 D emocratisation T h e o r y __________________________________________________60 2.3 T he Reversal a n d F a il u r e of D emocratisation in C en tr a l A s ia 67 2.3.1 Kyrgyzstan____________________________________________________ 7 1 2.3.2 Kazakhstan_____________________________________________________ 78 2.3.3 Uzbekistan____________________________________________________ 82 2.3.4 Turkmenistan__________________________________________________ 88 2.3.5 Tajikistan______________________________________________________ 91 2.4 C o n c l u s io n __________________________________________________________________ 95 3.0 RUSSIAN INFLUENCES IN CENTRAL ASIA SINCE 1991 ____________ 99 3.1 R ussia ’s H isto rica l L e g a c y in C en tr a l A s i a ___________________________ 99 3.1.1 The Tsarist Empire and Central____________________________ A sia 99 3.1.2 The Soviet Union and Central_____________________________ Asia 103 3.2 Patterns o f Russian Foreign Policy since the Disintegration of the U S S R 107 3.3 R ussia ’s Po litical In f l u e n c e in C e n tr a l A s ia __________________________111 3.4 R ussification in C e n t r a l A s i a ___________________________________________ 113 2 3.5 R ussia ’s C ontribution t o C en tr a l A sian S e c u r it y ____________________ 119 3.6 T he R ole o f C e n t r a l A sia in the S e cu rity of t h e R u ssia n F ed era tio n 131 3.7 Econom ic D evelopments betw een R ussia a n d C e n tr a l A sia _________ 152 3.8 Conclusion _________________________________________________________________ 159 4.0 AMERICAN INFLUENCES IN CENTRAL ASIA SINCE 1991_______162 4.1 Patterns o f A m e r ic a n Fo reig n P o lic y T o w a r d s C e n tr a l A sia S ince 1991 163 4.2 A m erica ’s C ontribution to C en tra l A sian S e c u r it y _________________ 166 4.2.1 NATO's Partnership for Peace, Centrashat and GUUAM__________ 166 4.2.2 The War on Terror_______________________________________ 169 4.3 A m erica ’s P o l it ic a l In fl u e n c e in C en tr a l A s i a _______________________181 4.4 A m erica ’s E c o n o m ic In fl u e n c e in C en tr a l A s i a _______________________190 4.5 A m erica ’s Im p a c t o n C en tr a l A sian C u ltu r e a n d S o c ie t y ___________196 4.6 Conclusion _________________________________________________________________201 5.0 THE ENERGY RESOURCE DIMENSION_________________________203 5.1 Resource W a r s a n d P e t r o -Po l it ic s ______________________________________203 5 .1.1 The Status of the Caspian and its Division_______________________ 208 5.1.2 Competing Influences over Kazakhstan's Energy Resources_______ 210 5.1.3 Competing Influences over Turkmen Energy Resources____________ 219 5.1.4 The Importance o f Uzbek, Kyrgyz and Tajik Energy Resources 226 5.2 Conclusion _________________________________________________________________229 6.0 ISLAMIC INFLUENCES AND CENTRAL ASIA___________________231 6.1 Islam befo re Independence _______________________________________________ 233 6.1.1 The Birth o f Islam in Central_______________________________ Asia 233 6.1.2 Islam in Central Asia During the Russian Empire________________ 234 6.1.3 Islam in Central Asia during the Soviet______________________ Era 234 6.2 Islam as a D o m e s t ic R elig ion and C u l tu r a l P h e n o m e n o n in C en tra l A s ia . 238 6.3 O fficial Isla m in C e n t r a l A sia ___________________________________________ 244 6.4 Political Isla m a n d Isla m ic O rganisations in C e n tr a l A s i a ________250 3 6.5 E x t e r n a l Is l a m i c In f l u e n c e s o n C e n t r a l A s i a : T h e Im p a c t o f A f g h a n i s t a n a n d t h e A r a b C o u n t r i e s o n P o l i t i c s a n d S o c i e t y in C e n t r a l A s i a 261 6.6 C o n c l u s i o n ________________________________________________________________________ 270 7.0 CONCLUSION ________________________________________________271 7.1 C o o p e r a t i o n o r C o m p e t i t i o n ? __________________________________________________271 7.2 S u m m a r y o f C h a p t e r s ___________________________________________________________ 273 7.2.1 The Internal Politics of the Central Asian Countries______________ 273 7.2.2 Russian Influences in Central______________________________ Asia 2 74 7.2.3 American Influences in Central_____________________________ Asia 279 7.2.4 The Energy Resource Dimension________________________________ 281 7.2.5 Islamic Influences and Central _____________________________Asia 283 7.3 W h ic h P o w e r h a s t h e s t r o n g e s t C o m p e t i n g In f l u e n c e s a n d W h y ? 285 BIBLIOGRAPHY AND SOURCES______________________________________287 4 ABSTRACT This thesis looks at competing influences in Central Asia since 1991. It looks at all five Central Asian countries, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, and identifies the three main powers with competing influences as Russia, Islam and America. It aims at showing which of these three powers is the most enduring and powerful in the region according to how strong its influences are. The strengths of these influences are investigated in relation to the fields of security, politics, culture and economics. This thesis argues that Russian influences are at present the strongest amongst most strata of the Central Asian population. Russification (which falls under cultural influence) in both its linguistic and behavioural forms is a profound contributor to Russia’s firm role in the region. Russia’s security, economic and particularly political influences have gradually grown in strength, giving the other two powers a larger challenge. According to this work, Islam is a growing power in the region and has gained momentum primarily as a result of internal factors in the region, although regional and global Islamic forces are also looked at. Islam’s cultural and political influences are particularly effective in the development of Islam as a power in the region. Central Asia’s geo-strategic importance was soon realised by Washington after independence. This thesis argues that competition and not cooperation characterised the relationship between Russia and America throughout the 1990’s and in particular after September 11, which led to America’s increased involvement in the region. The USA’s economic and security-related influences have been the strongest and most successful. Its political influences have often been seen as counter-productive by pushing different segments of the population towards the other two powers. America’s cultural influences come last. This thesis has consequently provided a platform for measuring competing influences from Russia, Islam and America in Central Asia. 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I wish to express my sincere thanks to my supervisor Dr Peter Duncan, not only for his advice and support over the course of my PhD but also for greatly contributing to my interest in the Former Soviet Union and particularly Central Asia.