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Appendix D-Modeling Technical Memorandum APPENDIX D PROPOSED LOWER YUBA RIVER ACCORD MODELING TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM Proposed Lower Yuba River Accord June 2007 Draft EIR/EIS Proposed Lower Yuba River Accord Modeling Technical Memorandum Table of Contents Section Page 1.0 INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................D-1 2.0 IMPACT ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK..................................................................................D-1 2.1 Impact Analysis Approach.........................................................................................D-2 2.2 Project Study Area .......................................................................................................D-3 2.2.1 Characterization of Trinity River and Clear Creek Operations ...............D-3 2.2.2 Characterization of Folsom Reservoir and Lower American River Operations........................................................................................................D-4 2.2.3 Characterization of Shasta Reservoir and the Sacramento River Upstream of the Feather River Confluence.................................................D-4 3.0 MODELS USED FOR THE IMPACT ANALYSIS.............................................................D-5 3.1 CALSIM II Model.........................................................................................................D-6 3.2 Yuba Project Model......................................................................................................D-9 3.3 Lower Yuba River Water Temperature Model........................................................D-9 3.4 Lower Yuba River Outflow Routing Tool ..............................................................D-10 3.5 Bureau of Reclamation Water Temperature Models ............................................D-11 3.5.1 Bureau of Reclamation’s Reservoir Water Temperature Models...........D-11 3.5.2 Bureau of Reclamation’s River Water Temperature Models..................D-12 3.6 Bureau of Reclamation’s Early Life Stage Chinook Salmon Mortality Models ............................................................................................................D-12 3.6.1 Lower Feather River Early Life Stage Chinook Salmon Mortality Model Revisions............................................................................................D-13 3.6.2 Other Salmon Mortality Model Considerations.......................................D-14 3.7 Graphic and Tabular Analysis of Environmental Resources Tool......................D-14 3.8 Delta Simulation Model 2 .........................................................................................D-15 3.9 Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Fish Salvage Evaluation......................................D-15 3.9.1 Salvage............................................................................................................D-15 3.9.2 Modeling ........................................................................................................D-16 3.10 Project Hydropower Production and Delta Export Pumping Power Demand Evaluation......................................................................................D-17 3.11 Model Limitations......................................................................................................D-18 4.0 CEQA/NEPA MODEL SCENARIOS .................................................................................D-19 4.1 Foundation Studies....................................................................................................D-22 4.1.1 OCAP Study 3 ...............................................................................................D-22 4.1.2 Foundation Study OCAP Study 5 ..............................................................D-23 Proposed Lower Yuba River Accord June 2007 Draft EIR/EIS Page D-i Appendix D Modeling Technical Memorandum Table of Contents (Continued) Section Page 4.2 CEQA Scenarios .........................................................................................................D-23 4.2.1 CEQA Existing Condition (Scenario 1)......................................................D-23 4.2.2 CEQA No Project Alternative (Scenario 2)................................................D-24 4.2.3 CEQA Yuba Accord Alternative ( Scenario 3) ..........................................D-25 4.2.4 CEQA Modified Flow Alternative (Scenario 4)........................................D-26 4.3 NEPA Scenarios .........................................................................................................D-26 4.3.1 NEPA No Action Alternative (Scenario 5) ................................................D-26 4.3.2 NEPA Yuba Accord Alternative ( Scenario 6) ..........................................D-27 4.3.3 NEPA Modified Flow Alternative (Scenario 7) ........................................D-28 5.0 ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING CVP/SWP OPERATIONS..........................................D-28 5.1 Water Transfers ..........................................................................................................D-28 5.2 No Transfer Period ....................................................................................................D-28 5.3 Proposed Yuba Accord Water for the Central Valley Project..............................D-29 5.4 Proposed Yuba Accord Water for the State Water Project...................................D-29 5.5 Characterization of CVP/SWP Response to Decreases in Lower Yuba River Outflow................................................................................................D-29 5.6 Pumping Priorities: Banks Pumping Plant vs. Jones Pumping Plant.................D-30 5.7 Reregulation of Yuba River Water in Oroville reservoir......................................D-31 6.0 REFERENCES .........................................................................................................................D-31 List of Attachments Attachment A Yuba Project Model Attachment B Lower Yuba River Water Temperature Evaluation Attachment C Carry-over Storage for Water Transfers List of Figures Figure 3-1. Modeling and Post-Processing Procedures......................................................D-7 Figure 3-2. Lower Yuba River Model Network Schematic and Output...........................D-9 List of Tables Table 2-1. Summary of Required CEQA and NEPA Comparative Scenarios to be Evaluated .........................................................................................................D-3 Table 4-1. Yuba Accord CEQA AND NEPA Modeling Scenario Assumptions Matrix ..................................................................................................................D-20 Proposed Lower Yuba River Accord June 2007 Draft EIR/EIS Page D-ii Proposed Lower Yuba River Accord Modeling Technical Memorandum 1.0 INTRODUCTION This memorandum provides detailed information regarding the modeling tools, primary modeling assumptions, model inputs, and methodologies that are used to evaluate potential effects on reservoir operations, stream flow, water quality, water temperature, and salmon mortality under the various scenarios that are analyzed in the Proposed Yuba Accord EIR/EIS. Implementation of one of these scenarios would result in changes in operations of: (1) YCWA’s Yuba Project; (2) YCWA Member Units’ groundwater pumping within the Yuba Groundwater Basin; (3) the DWR Oroville-Thermalito complex of the SWP; (4) CVP/SWP Delta facilities; and (5) CVP/SWP San Luis Reservoir. This memorandum is included as Appendix D to the Draft EIR/EIS. 2.0 IMPACT ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK This section describes the impact analysis framework to evaluate potential flow and water temperature related changes on surface water supplies, surface water quality, hydropower, and aquatic and riparian habitat utilized by listed species that would be expected to occur with implementation of the various alternatives analyzed in the Draft EIR/EIS. Modeling scenarios were developed to represent existing and future hydrologic conditions with and without implementation of the alternatives considered for the Proposed Yuba Accord (i.e., Yuba Accord Alternative and Modified Flow Alternative) to enable an evaluation of potential environmental impacts for CEQA, NEPA and water rights purposes. These scenarios include: (1) CEQA Existing Condition; (2) CEQA No Project Alternative; (3) CEQA Yuba Accord Alternative; (4) CEQA Modified Flow Alternative; (5) NEPA No Action Alternative; (6) NEPA Yuba Accord Alternative; and (7) NEPA Modified Flow Alternative. In addition to these scenarios, baseline conditions for the accounting of Released Transfer Water for the two characterizations (CEQA and NEPA) of the Yuba Accord Alternative are determined, but not directly used in any of the impact analyses. The hydrologic modeling and related post-processing of outputs is used to simulate the YCWA, Reclamation, and DWR water project operations associated with implementation of the alternatives. Comparison of model results for the different scenarios is used in the discussions of environmental effects in the following resource chapters of the Draft EIR/EIS: Chapter 5 - Surface Water Supply and Management Chapter 6 - Groundwater Resources Chapter 7 – Power Production and Energy Consumption Chapter 8 - Flood Control Chapter 9 - Surface Water Quality Chapter 10 - Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Chapter 11 - Terrestrial Resources Chapter 12 – Recreation Proposed Lower Yuba River Accord June 2007 Draft EIR/EIS Page D-1 Appendix D Modeling Technical Memorandum Chapter
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