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Monday 4Th January 2016

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Monday 4Th January 2016 Monday 4 th January 2016 SPILL is UP Good Morning – Today is Series S3H NORMAL and the SPILL is UP . Happy New Year… now get back to work!!! Here is the TOP DOWN analysis from large time frame down to Honing: The Bull market from Obama 666 has one Bull case and 2 different ways to see it as completed;therefore we are already in a Bear market. The Bull case rests upon the Central Bankers not being discredited as yet, that 1867.01 CASH marked the bottom of Big Arse IV, that Major Blood Red 1 of Big arse V is completed, and that Major Blood Red 2 down of Big Are V UP is completed at 1993.26 OR will complete when the decline from the 12/29 HIGH at 1281 CASH ROUNDED ENDS, where 2077!!! cash was not confirmed as given last week in the commentaries. When Major Blood red 2 is sealed then the market will rally to a blood red 3 high followed by a blood red down, and be completed by a final rally to blood red 5 = Big Arse V. The 2 Bear cases are this way: the BULL MARKET ended at either the May 2015 High or the July 2015 high of 2134 cash rounded or 2132.5 cash rounded as the most orthodox way to view the Bear OR the BULL MARKET ended at 2104.27 CASH on 12/2/2015. The latter is where I personally can make a case for the end of the Bull Market. Regardless of which of these 2 choices is right (IF EITHER IS RIGHT!!!) the outcome will be the SAME. These 2 cases BOTH REQUIRE a break of 1867.01 CASH and neither can be confirmed until a daily closes, preferably 2 daily closes below 1705 CASH is taken out. A minimum expectation has already been provided for the bottom of the Bear at the filling of the 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 GAP on the charts at 1525 cash rounded. The essence of a TREND is a series of LOWER HIGHS AND LOWER LOWS or a series of HIGHER HIGHS AND HIGHER LOWS. BOTH CAMPS POSSESS ONLY ½ OF THAT EQUATION. The Bulls have not made a higher high since the July 2134 cash rounded high but have produced higher low going all the way back to 666 and more germanely to the favored lean since 1074.77 CASH on Oct. 4 2011..The BEARS NEED THAT 1867.01 converted to HARD RESISTANCE and the Central Bankers DISCREDITED in order to have their first LOWER LOW. They do have a series of lower highs in place from the orthodox high at 2134 Cash rounded. Tuesday 5th January 2016 SPILL is UP Good Morning – Today is series S4L slight iffy and the spill is UP . Very little to say, a 35.4 handle gravy in the gap day with a 27.5 handle range. We killed 2005.33 and the 1993.26 lows confirming that at best the Bulls are still in search of Blood red 2 Low. As given right near the Open yesterday the first hurdle for the BULLS is going to be BOTH THE 2011.5 SPOT AND 2015, 2011.5-2105. This is based upon the overnight action for the PEEANS see 2-4:30 a.m. The first need for the Bears will to be killing the daily pivot at 2000.2 big contract futures but the main deal is getting the 2000 CASH converted to hard resistance even if only briefly. Why briefly??? EVERYONE will be EYES ON 1962 -1965 CASH (I am rounding _) and where a = c on the down legs @ 1971 CASH. One thing is certain: since the November high, this market has been traig out large AV moves within a 2.5-4 TRADING DAY CYCLE and pronounced volatility w/vix steadily over 15 is making for a nice roller coaster ride with VOLATILITY covering many Sins. I do not expect this to abate anytime real soon unless we rally through 2063.5 SPOT. In real time yesterday it was all about rejecting any attempts to recover the 1998 SPOT and 1999 OPEN.The ability to take price back through 1992.25 ES in the last hour as given well in advance when the BEARS FAILED to kill the 1983 SPOT (low was 1984) produced the SHORT SQUEEZE RALLY. Wednesday 6 th January 2016 The SPILL is 79 DOWN w. 21 UP Good Morning – Today is Series S1H and the SPILLis 79 DOWN w. 21 UP … Today is the first day of Expiry and normally has a trending feature. It is also FED FOMC MINUTES @ 2 P.M. and in recent months this action has been very volatile and whippy.Getting down to brass tax: Drawing upon the Monday and Tuesday commentaries as well as the charts from Monday’s we need to focus upon where we are contextually. Monday we opened with a 35.4 handle gap from 2035.4 to 2000 killing 2005.93 cash @ 9:35 thus eliminating the most immediate bull count and @ 11:02 a.m. we killed the 1993.26 cash from 12/14 thus eliminating the BLOOD RED 2 as having been sealed at the low for a ride to new all time highs on the larger BULL COUNT.This leaves the BULLS with that 1993.26 as having been “a of 2” best case with the 2981.56 cash high on 12/29 (THAT DID NOT CONVERT THE 2077 CASH) ‘SEALED as the “b of 2” high. When the 1983 SPOT a.m. low (actual 1982 large contract, 1980.5 ES) real time posts looked for the long.In the last hour we successfully test that low at 1984 and it was already pre-indentified that BACK THROUGH 1992.25 would open up potentially higher prices. It did in spadess as we rocketed 27 handles into the close basis 1982 aka 1983 SPOT LOD. Yesterday . due to an electrical outage no charts were attached to the commentary; however, in both Tuesday’s commentary AND Monday morning! real time 2011.5 spot to 2015 spot was Pre- identified as the first place of larger resistance!!! We opened at 2009 (ALWAYS WRITE DOWN THE OPEN!) and then rejected the 2011.5 SPOT heading south to the a./m. low 1998 SPOT, 1998.25 actual. Price rallied to the OPEN 2009 for the mid a.m high then made its LOD at the lunch low 1995.25 ES, 1996 big contract. What followed was the rally to the mid p.m. HOD 2014 ES , 1 handle off the 2015 SPOT A stop run of the 2004.5 SPOT provided a reversal UP but the Market went out with a WHIMPER NOT A BANG at the 2011.5 SPOT.This was pre-d’d as well. Thursday 7 th January 2016 Good Morning – Today is Series S2L and the SPILL is UP. Another day, another gap down gone unrecovered using LARGE CONTRACT S&P RTH only pricing. Another day, another Pean Trap high (China actually-2013.25) .Another day, another tracking of the 2007 analog-SEE MONDAY PROSE AND CHART.Two of the 3 days thus far have contained sharp sQueezes late only to be unraveled before the roosters crowed. The opening drop yesterday was accentuated by the Korean bomb catalyst giving the bulls the upper hand with price having gone to the 1972,5 SPOT pre-open LOW followed by the 1978.5 SPOT opening and then a rally that gave 2 attempts to take out 2000 CASH.In an interchange with Mark W. (someone I have known and respected going back to 1978) a Quick discussion on what would be the bane to bulls IF the heretofore CHOP TILT UP were to turn was highlighted. The Bane of course being an “A” shaped day to follow using my vernacular.Kudos to Mark for differentiating chop tilt up from an SU pattern as well as timeliness at the TURN near the peak The ‘A’ day followed , a test of the overnight low held and the sQueeze began.A Heads up for the rally was issued at the FIRST PASS (RTH) of the 1972.5 SPOT @ 2:54 .The rally was vicious to 1987 ES+ (17 handles) BUT NOW WHERE as vicious as the move on Monday @ +27 handle Friday 8 th January 2016 SPILL is UP Good Morning – Today s Series S3L and the SPILL is UP . It is NFP day and the market has every opportunity to BOUNCE HARD or CONTINUE THE VERTICAL SLIDE in progress. This IS what a JUMP BALL event is plain an simple. What we know: Yesterday BROKE some key price components on the GAP DOWN: 1962-65 CASH and 1971 CASH.That the TRAPPED LOW was 1931.5 SPOT should come as no surprise; Furthermore, if you drill down into the lesser time frames, it should come as no surprise that the ensuing rally to the WEAK LUNCH HIGH showed supply (sQuiggling on the charts ) at each of those KEY CASH prices on the rally when FV adjusted to ES is made. Also, the actual lunch assignment was made at the 1963 SPOT , acceptable but barely at 11:45..There is not time go over the book sQuaring ,, the aberrant tells of a WEAK market given real time but all were pre-id in advance or in the case of the aberrant tells ‘to the tick’… Monday 11 th January 2016 SPILL is DOWN Good Morning – Today is Series S2H NORMAL and the SPILL is DOWN .
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