The Analysis of the Developments in South West Asia Geopolitical Interests (Case Study: Geopolitical Developments in Yemen)

International Journal of Political Science ISSN: 2228-6217 Vol.7, No 1, Spring 2017, (pp.61-74)

The Analysis of the Developments in South West Asia Geopolitical interests (Case study: Geopolitical Developments in Yemen)

Nabiallah Rashnoo* Assistant Professor of International Relations, Islamic Azad University, Kish International Branch

Received: 5 March 2016 ; Accepted: 12 Sep 2016

Abstract: Through intellectual and doctrinal foundations of the Muslim world that Islam is derived Ad- men, ideas and movements throughout history have always been transformational. Regional, and new developments anticipated in the gradual transformation of some kind of social reform and a new orientation in the field of social regeneration based Barmen various countries and peoples of the Islamic world cannot be considered unexpected. All across the Muslim world in the twenty-first century with the continuing evidence that many inherited and dictatorial regimes collapse, crises and critical forces of political Islam and its future role in political engineering will play. Current center of the process, the Arab-Islamic sphere of strategic interests in West Asia, the priority trans-regional powers, because any change in the balance of power or the political structure of countries in the region, within the precincts of the far-reaching impact, the vibrations are practically new geopolitics among the influential powers and international relations are at different levels. The global spread of poverty among the Muslim people of Yemen and create a lot of destruction in its various infrastructures the country. Strategic and geopolitical demands numerous intervention in the affairs of the country and secondly because it requires analysis and forecasting possible scenarios in the political destiny of the Yemeni people. The explanation plausible scenarios, video survey of field conditions and prospects of the political structure of the country's supply.

Keywords: Islam, Political attitudes, Interests, Strategic, Geopolitical developments, the Arab-Islamic sphere of authority, International, Social reform

Introduction changes the geopolitical developments that Regardless of what kind of international sys- have intensified in recent years in the West tem (including hierarchical or multi-polar Asian region, prospect and the formation of system) is evolving, there is no doubt that political structures and design coordinator *Corresponding Author’s Email: [email protected]

The Analysis of the Developments in South West Asia … geopolitical structure in the area, one of the actors, regional and national levels in the cri- influential powers and international concern sis in Yemen, the recognition of geopolitical will be their regional affiliates. So for these actors, to observe the landscape changes and areas in order to anticipate any change in the the possible formation of domestic and inter- short term worrying situation described national political structure in this country. above, it is very difficult. In this regard, the spread of popular up- The question and hypothesis risings in 2011 and three years after the The basic question of this study is that, in ouster of Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen, the view of political developments in Yemen, country still faces pervasive instability. which options and possibilities for formation Based on agreements Persian Gulf Coopera- of patterns of power, politics and regional tion Council imposed reconciliation, interim relations, can be raised? government Mansour Hadi, who was first Regional countries should be drawn in such a appointed for a term of two years, during way that the necessary preparations to partic- two years did not take certain actions to ipate and political currents, internal ethnic transition from temporary and inevitably and religious, supplier's demands of countries this interim period was extended for another and powers are interested in the issues of year not for one year, during which a new Yemen. constitution was prepared and not preparing the conditions for parliamentary elections Theoretical foundations was provided. In addition, the interim gov- Situation where research ernment in June 2013 Mansour Hadi by in- Places that are positioned content of values creasing energy prices and is also divided by perceived by the governments, humanitarian pursuing a political-analytical system target- groups and gradually become a special utili- ed at the political geography of Yemen, led ty, and then interest in them and addressing to widespread protests in Yemen and the defined for it. Favorable geographical values gradual formation of a general uprising of that cite the behavior of people in groups or 2004 under the guidance of movement An- individual patterns of behavior such as coop- sar Allah, respectively. eration work period. For example, conver- Yemen and international levels has led to gence, cooperation, competition, conflict, a major concern, as is the debate about the domination and so they (Hafeznia, 2006, future of the events of the things that has at- 155). tracted the attention of many analysts. Issues Superior geographical strategic in every such as Yemen's political future in the region, region of the surface of the Earth or in space possible structural rule the country after the that are not under any authority, will achieve way out of the current crisis, the role of the a good platform for his fluent provides cur- diverse ethnic, tribal, religious, political as rent objectives and future. may be desirable, well as regional and international forces in to the extent or magnitude of a country Yemen, now the focus are observing the de- Mountains areas, capital or small to draw on velopments in Yemen. large-scale tactical maps that by having a Therefore, this paper reviews three levels point or area of They are usually based on of intervention and expensive international opportunities and conditions of various forc-

International Journal of Political Science, Vol.7, No 1, Spring 2017 es, land and political limits are variable (Col- also limitations on the origin strategists lins, 1999, 206). and try to understand the objectives, interests However and different geographic re- and geopolitical interests, especially in the gions, according to the different conditions, case of each which seek to identify and in the different values are important Necessary this way to explain determine why the inter- addressing. (Ahmad, 2010, 43). vention and it. According to some scholars In this regard, the political map of the geopolitical, multilevel model form. In other world Yemen is located in the southwest words, different levels of actors involved are Arabian Peninsula, on the north by Saudi dumped in relation to the crisis. The actors Arabia, on the east by Oman, to the south by involved in a geopolitical crisis based on dif- the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea is limited ferent objectives the most important of which to the west. include: humanitarian motivation and con- Babe el-Mandeb Strait, which bottlenecks tribute to international peace and security, the country's aristocracy and a double im- development of the hinterland, pursue na- portance in international energy security and tional goals and interests, promote the re- the transit of goods is, all this represents a gion's geopolitical position in the system. very important strategic location Yemen in And the world through the process of resolv- numerous international transactions. In fact, a ing the crisis of leadership and management high percentage of the current commutes that that can be associated with a spirit of recon- take place in the Suez Canal must pass ciliation and continuation of the crisis. through Babe el-Man dab critical bottleneck. Thus, different levels of players in a geo- Therefore, to the extent that the Suez Canal political crisis and the crisis in Yemen, such in the attitudes of global geostrategic im- developments can be presented as follows: portance, the Strait of Babe el-Man dab is 1. claimants and conflict or local level 2. also important (Draysdel and Blake, 2007: Level 3. Level trans-regional 4. Global level 178)& (Honest and Ahmadian, 2010: 261) and regional and international organizations such as spherical or structural level 5. The International intervention United Nations and the Security Council A term encompassing a range of intervention (Hafeznia.2006.130). Created regarding in which an activist in the screw, This rela- changes in the system of international expe- tionship has always attracted the attention of rience suggests that the major powers will several of the world experts in various sci- continue an active role in landscape man- ences and analysis by lawyers international agement and manufacturer relations and re- non-intervention, intervention provides And gional relations play I think Risk interven- operating rules that makes success possible, tion by the great powers, in future reshaped determine. Historians also accuse diplomatic would be primarily motivated by domestic efforts to understand why some specific in- political factors and trans-regional security terventions that often controversial nature concerns Tremblay and not military power they occur and in turn, are political scientists with a global reach is a big country and so work together, the hypothesis that the inter- they are trying to in any regional security vention in conjunction with other acts of the complex who agrees and is suitable for their day, identify and determine. ( Evans. 2002: interests, their intervention. Organizations or 421). governments may intervene in conflicts be-

The Analysis of the Developments in South West Asia … tween countries or even within countries, (including Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Syria, but finding pretexts for interfering with the Yemen, etc.), the fall of the dictatorial re- use of international law very simple inter- gimes of various political-spatial transfor- ventions can offer this mode of peaceful set- mations in the region was West Asia. tlement of disputes, and this is usually solu- Yemen is the first country in spite of the tion arises when we left and apparently not developments in the Persian Gulf Coopera- without violence. tion Council reconciliation plan, which mainly aims to meet the strategic interests of the The geopolitical belong Yemeni people Saud was imposed, then the In general, any supplements given geograph- formal election with just one candidate (Hadi ical space and beyond boundaries structurally Vice President Ali Abdullah Saleh was oust- homogeneous and supplier of also needs a ed ruler time) was held in limbo situation in country, shaping geopolitical interests. Cul- the country has created a public outcry tural, social, religious, scientific, technologi- against fire. cal, military, security, environmental integri- With this process, the current Yemeni cri- ty, and devotion to their country. (Hafeznia, sis began some time ago, the although in this 120: 2006). country where more than 40 percent of Yem- en's population constitute, nor any rights, op- Geopolitical developments portunities and political participation in the change any pattern, orders geopolitical country has been deprived, in the form of structures are indicative of a geopolitical political, religious and social groups affiliat- geographic areas Druze chiefs geopolitical ed Ansar Allah by organizing numerous pro- variables National raising the role of politi- tests and nonviolent action were although and cal actors and government's positive and Yemeni civil disobedience Paleontology negative factors were fluid power constantly pressure medications led to Mansour Hadi competing regional and global optimization who disregard the provisions of obligations are position, so the system's regional and national reconciliation Persian Gulf Coopera- international geopolitical dynamic in nature tion Council (formulation and adoption of a and follows the motion of a balance. , So new constitution, free elections for parlia- that the developments to achieve a dynamic ment and presidential create open space for balance. In addition, any change system and political and social activities, given current lack of balance. Balance is transforming wa- demands and meet the basic needs of man, ter supply system improvements. (Hafeznia, etc.), and benefit from extensive support 2006, 144), from Saudi Arabia mainly seeks to establish his own absolute rule despite the passage of Research Findings one year from the time legal limit stipulated Current transformation in Yemen in the above-mentioned plan, Hadi virtually Winter 2010 educated young Bouazizi, the nothing to deliver power to the people and Tunisian who set fire to himself, not only the new elections if he did not. Therefore, with downfall of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali dicta- rising public pressure, finally a second date torship ruling that country, but with the rapid Bahman 2004 State of the illegal Mansour spread of the movement into other countries Hadi resigned.

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But immediately the pressure Saudi Ara- tations which marks the loosening of interna- bia and some Arabic countries, Mansur Hadi tional law to prevent third-party intervention took his resignation and with the assistance in conflicts international levels. of these countries, the field of foreign forces and the spread of insecurity and systemic 1.level local or central crisis center develop- crisis in the country provided Yemen In their ments in addition to the historically marginal- control. President Hadi agreed based on the ized majority Shea al-Houthi conflict and the statutory period known as the "adan Gulf" side of their tribes and clans from power and was two years and it was completed at the undemocratic takeover of power by the mi- end of 2013.return.the leadership of the op- nority backed by aliens, are, through many position popular movements' hadi, is sent. discrimination created, the process has in recent decades, such as bone and flowing Intervention levels and geopolitical inter- through the wound in Yemen have been vari- ests in the country of Yemen ous developments. Organizations or governments may intervene in conflicts between countries or even within 2.Regional level: mainly Saudi Arabia, UAE, countries, but excuse for the intervention of Qatar, Egypt and Iran. international law is not a simple. (326. Bradan .2005) in the last two centuries an 3.level regional and international countries excuse for the involvement internal or exter- which directly or by designating a proxy nal conflict, by means of intervention and Country Yemen levels of regional and inter- invasion under the pretext of maintaining national developments are affecting mainly security in the region or the world, it has be- the US, Russia and some members of the Eu- come easier. Numerous examples and con- rope Union are effective. For as outlined temporary way of intervention abound, such above, the position of Regional Yemen with as the above mentioned, the occupation of multiple aspects of strategic global power is Afghanistan and Iraq by the US cooperation always right for a change in attitudes and pol- and coordinating its allies in the years 2001 icies and have been formulated in interna- and 2003, sporadic attacks by Israel on Leba- tional affairs. non and the Gaza Strip, especially the war in 2006 with Hezbollah in Lebanon and 2008 , 4.level regional and international instru- 2012 and 2015 in the Gaza Strip that Pales- ments or international organizations: such as tinian resistance and to excuse Israel's securi- the United Nations Security Council, NATO, ty were carried out massive attacks Western Europe Union, the Treaty of Shanghai, the powers Libya (2011) under the auspices of African Union, the OIC, NAM, the Arab NATO, with the pretext of defending the League, Persian Gulf Cooperation Council people of this country during the fall of the and ideological trends in cross-border such dictatorship Qazafy took place, the presence as: Islam (Sunni and Shiite), Christianity, of overt and covert some Arabic countries to Judaism and commit their ethnicity. Yemen that led to the killing of innocent However, for more precise details of the people and the destruction of most of infra- crisis in Yemen and identify goals, interests structure during the war was imposed Yem- and different views on the current develop- en. These are strategic and political manifes- ments are affecting the country, actors and

The Analysis of the Developments in South West Asia … Intervention active participant in this scene Saudi Arabia are trying to "Emirate of al- are generally three categories of domestic, Qaeda" in Maarib province to establish. Un- regional and international, as we examined der the "Ali Mohsen al Ahmar," a former of- below. ficer in the Yemeni army recruitment in the camps, "mokala" and "shabwah" in Maarib Local actors : Al Qaeda province in the center of the country and are The roots of the conflict in the Soviet pres- deployed near the borders of Saudi Arabia. ence in Afghanistan are al-Qaeda in Yemen. Yemen's Maarib province is located in the Yemen after Saudi Arabia, Islamist fighters center of geopolitical commensurate with the against the Soviets in Afghanistan was the potential. The province of Yemen's oil and second major source of supply. Thousands of gas resources in the first place and the first Yemenis went to Afghanistan to fight the producer of oil and gas derivatives and elec- Soviet Union and were trained in al-Qaeda tricity in the country. Also, the provinces of camps. By the end of the war in Afghanistan, al Jaowf and Hadhramaut province near the which coincided with the unification of the oil-rich provinces and bordering Saudi Ara- two Yemen, Yemeni fighters returned to their bia, is located. Host Maarib province, tribal homeland (Bergen, 2008: 117).were at the leaders and military officers have already forefront of its activities. One of the first al- fled to Saudi gradually and organized with Qaeda operations in Yemen before the inci- the support of Saudi Arabia to join Takfiri dent in September 2001, the United States returned to the province. (Brussels, 2015: 9). realized the danger of Yemen. Al-Qaeda forces attacked the US warship USS Cole in The indigenous tribes the port of Aden that killed a number of Often-overlooked role of tribes in Yemen, American soldiers killed. Al-Qaeda's efforts often suggest that Yemen is a lawless country have had on the expansion of the war into and tribes as political entities, ethnic - reli- Saudi Arabia and several operations in that gious and government's consistent presence country has been successfully carried out, but in the territories under the control of the re- in waging civil war against the Saudi regime sistance. failed (Garment, 2011: 11). Are (Paul, 1981: 75). Many government Given these developments for several officials and influential Yemeni tribes are years, al-Qaeda operatives from Yemen to known. Yemeni President Ali Abdullah other parts of West Asia, especially al-Qaida Saleh's three-decade Hashed tribal federation in Iraq militants in Iraq diverted activities of was a member of the significant influence in the organization in new spaces, re-found sta- Yemen and heads it (Mahogany family) was tus and social and political climate there Yemen's most important politicians. The trib- Yemen. For many observers, after Pakistan, al structure of society within the framework Afghanistan, Yemen and Somalia, two al- of a substantial personal liberty granted to Qaeda activities is the main place for conti- individuals flora. Yemeni tribes and famous nuity. (Boucher, 2010: 22). The current activ- heads of important characters often-large ities of al-Qaeda in Yemen confirm this rooms for entertaining the guests that will be claim. held in them. The meeting discussed im- Takfiri groups with direct support from portant political issues without restriction

International Journal of Political Science, Vol.7, No 1, Spring 2017 placed discussion. One of these meetings is Al-Qaeda in Yemen tribal clashes and the the training of future political leaders. (Phil- country is such that some tribes, especially lips, 2008: 215). In fact, tribes and power of the tribal with weapons and ammunition leveraging the power of government and abundant even to deal with the Yemeni peo- move it to the curb authoritarianism stems. ple's army. Using rockets, mortars and heavy On the other hand influenced by this issue, weapons against the Houthis, represents a the government can play a role in education massive developments taking place in Yem- and shape the character and national identity en's tribal system is power. Tribes "Hashed, is less (Weir, 2007: 69). In areas governed by Wiley, Baccaille and buckthorn" The most customary law and even virgin who live in obvious accumulate tribesmen in Saada prov- cities more often and faster to cause prefer ince as the main stronghold of Zaidi Yemen. (Driesch, 1989: 417). Yemen is located in the farthest northwestern However, Yemeni tribes often try than Saada province of al Jawf, Amran and Hajjah from where it is possible to find political con- from the south, the borders of Saudi Arabia flicts not login because if they do know the Jizan and Najran provinces of the north, par- continuous struggle and violence to bring ticularly in limit. The two provinces are pre- their small communities. However, even dominantly Ismaili who enjoys the kinship leaders could have political affiliation, but ties with Yemen's northern tribes, and can be with all the attributes of tribes in this country a warning for Saudi Arabia (Egel, 2015: 38). as important actors in the political scene are evaluated. From the tribes of Yemen can be Ansar Allah (al Houthi s) divided into two Hashed tribe and other tribes Ansar Allah and unity among Shiites and al Bakyl noted that under their command. Houthi political link icon in the country of Apart from the Hashed tribes in northern Yemen. These groups make up about 45 per- Yemen are: tents, Arhab, Jahem, ninth, cent of Yemen's population and demand their madh'hij and Snhan, and tribes south of the current and ongoing discrimination in the country are as follows: Vazl, Fazli, Ad Dali ', enjoyment of the right to equality with the treasure, Mukalla and support, (Würth, 2005: rest of the country and Yemeni groups. The 54). In addition, many of the country's mili- movement was founded in 2000 by Sayyed tary leaders of the two main tribes. As long Hussein al Houthi followers and supporters' as there are no particular problems, tribes live groups chanting refers a militant group and together. Each that seems to power, power is political movement in the province of Saada completely at your disposal. It is important to in northern Yemen, and because" Houthi "read note that the division of tribes in the country the first leaders they, Hussein Badr al Houthi, by foreigners has doubled their capacity. For who was killed in 2004 by the Yemeni army example, during the recent developments in forces. Hussein Badruddin al Houthi, son of Yemen with Saudi attack intelligence agents Allama Sheikh "Badruddin al Houthi" the mission found that the country with funding great religious leaders of Yemen's Zaidi. Af- and weapons to pro-government tribal elders ter the martyrdom of Hussein al-Houthi took previous Yemen, encourage them to war with his brother Abd Al-Houthi Movement (Ah- the Houthis. From this perspective can also be madian, 2011: 10). used to analyze the potential of Yemeni tribal Yemen's Houthi movement has always society in various dimensions countries. been under pressure from the rulers. Houthis

The Analysis of the Developments in South West Asia … in Sanaa to discrimination because the polit- political scene in Yemen in recent years all- ical, economic and religious and civil rights out efforts to limit and suppress Shiites in violations against the country's Shia com- Yemen and especially promotes Wahhabism munity and the government accuse it ac- in the country of Yemen have adopted. In this cused them of trying to restore the Zaydi regard, interests and goals of some of these imamate that system. (Al Emad, 2011: 2). actors are put forward as follows: Tensions gradually began a series of wars in Saada six away from them without a win so Saudi Arabia far none of the parties has ended. So Sanaa With regard to economic status or religion to turn off this group and destroy it, under Saudi Arabia in the Arab world, the current President Ali Abdullah Saleh and close co- situation and especially after the fall of Sad- operation with Saudi Arabia, six bloody bat- dam Hussein in Iraq Hosni Mubarak in tles waged against the Houthis in which Egypt, the international powers frame the hundreds were killed and thousands were strategic relations with Arabic countries as a injured, but the sound of this group not off. center of gravity for decision-making and (Carapico, 2008: 49). direction measuring the positions and interactions in the field of Arabic things. The cur- Sunni Yemen and other indigenous rent strategy Arabia in the sense that convert minorities it into a center of gravity of the Arab world Sunnis in Yemen are divided into several and the Sunni Muslim leader Arabia. categories. The first category, which makes Saudi Arabia will be in Yemen, Saudi up the majority of this group are people who Arabia doubt led to heavy attacks against are unhappy past of corruption and poor gov- Shiites in Yemen started in date 2015. This ernance structure and in principle Ansar Al- represents a proxy war between Saudi Arabia lah movement as an opportunity to know the and the creation of a new space race with the transition from the past. They Ansar Allah, or Islamic Republic of Iran in regional conflicts. the measures agreed or disagreed with it. With this move, Saudi local struggle is with The second category of those who provoke an international dimension. According to Sunni and Salafist groups linked to Wahha- Saudi Arabia, after the invasion of Iraq in bism sought to intensify flows between Shi- 2003, Iran's influence and power in the re- ites and Sunnis and divert the revolution in gion and important issues that impact greatly Yemen are hand-sectarian war. This compre- increased. Climb to the top of Shiite power in hensive support some Arabic countries, led Iraq and Iran's allies in Lebanon and Pales- by Saudi Arabia and target they have also tine to survive and continue to stand after created a stalemate in Yemen's uprising An- several battles, all increase the potential ex- sar Allah or analysis. (Blanchard, 2009: 7). pansion in the region has led Iran. (Salisbury, 2015: 4). Regional actors Although the regional competition can be In addition to the Islamic Republic of Iran, viewed as one of the factors entering Saudi Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Persian Gulf Arabic Arabia as the war in Yemen, but that should countries of the Persian Gulf Cooperation not be overlooked cause other issues in this Council, regional actors are involved in the field. In fact, if the rise to power of Shiites in

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Iraq, the ability of Hezbollah in Lebanon and strengthened, big government and strong and Iran's growing influence in the area compared weak and fragmented society has brought. On to competitors consider, in such a situation this basis, the gap between Yemen's weak possible empowerment Houthi Shia in Saudi government and strong society and a strong Arabia in the siege and energy, as well as an counterpart Arabia, Yemen and its Saudi instrument of Saudi and Iranian pressure on counterpart weak. This gap is clearly grow- the country will increase its regional allies. ing, given the historic rivalry between the This, naturally, to Saudi Arabia and other two countries and issues of relations between Persian Gulf regimes Arabic and Arabic as the two countries, issues facing them closer well as in West Asia will not be tolerated. than ever. (Halliday, 2001: 272). That is why Saudi Arabia ultimate power to Also, the catastrophic economic and so- destroy the Houthis and weaken or eliminate cial situation of the Yemeni people, the most Iranian influence in the region, has attempted important factors influencing the insurgency, invasion and war in Yemen. (Hearst, 2004: widespread insecurity, increased power and 24). Other skeptical Saudi Arabia, Yemen's discourse of al-Qaeda in the country. The Zaidi Shiites in addition to 45 percent of the country also has created. A minority in the population, it is a lot of rest Yemen's popula- conflict zones (Ismailis) and the eastern oil- tion is made up of Sunni Shafi'i Sunni sect rich areas are present. closest to the ideas that they are Shiites. This So Saudi Arabia during the past half cen- has long been a religious consensus between tury, with massive support from Yemen, in the two main sects of religions Yemen has order to suppress the Shiia and marginalize created; so much so that many Zaidi and them further step is taken, it seems that this Shafays Yemeni Imams in mosques each time also Ansarullah victories on and the var- other and behind each other in their prayers ious ways in order to maintain its sphere of (Nonneman and Ginny, 2015: 28). influence in the country. The other issue, there is a wide gap be- Saudis Given that instability in Yemen, tween the community and the government in the Al Saud monarchy found numerous Yemen that its impact on relations with the threats, strategic Quartet towards Yemen has governments of Saudi Arabia in Yemen arti- followed so far: first, through precise control ficial abound. In Yemen, tribal social system of borders; second, dependent on the gov- is based, as is the custom and tradition of the ernment provide financial assistance to the tribes in many cases are superior to state law. Saudis in order to prevent the fall economic, In this society, the state and it's shaping much third, penetration among domestic actors weaker and more fragile structures and insti- Yemen (Salafis, tribal army) ultimately to the tutions of society and its governing tribal sys- country's air strike. (Abosaq, 2015 29). tem. But in Saudi Arabia, the Al Saud clan to However, in general for Saudi involve- structure a government and non-tribal society ment in Yemen, can be raised the following and is also a paradox, denounced allegiance reasons: to tribes rather than the state, the government has become al-Saud tribe all your needs with A) There are vast regional between Iran its name (Arabia) are introduced. This is the and Saudi Arabia; continuation of a century dealing poor, unlike B) contrast with Salafism and Vahaby- Yemen, the Saudi oil wealth has been Gary and their proximity to the Zaidi Shi'a

The Analysis of the Developments in South West Asia … Twelve; countries to Yemen. It was some kind of C) the effectiveness of a lot of uncertainty military action legitimacy of Saudi Arabia in and insecurity in Yemen, Saudi Arabia; Yemen. If the Houthis to refuse Resolution 2216 may be confronted with military action Egypt by the international community. Although Egypt's role in the field of interna- At another level, the Persian Gulf Coop- tional interactions Arabic - Islam is actually eration Council strategy with covert assis- after the Camp David Accords and reduce tance to strengthen the collection and terrorist gradually its relations with the Arab countries groups. They secretly to groups like ISIS and was very pale, but with recent developments al-Qaeda contribute to unsafe space and sepa- and regain backed trans-regional powers ration process in Yemen will be strengthened. Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the country with presence. The Islamic Republic of Iran Since the many Arab actors, from Yemen Yemen's political weight and strength in the as a tool for their own interests. Egyptian face of rivals such as chin-woman America government of Yemen to study their maxi- and Saudi Arabia as well as a possible re- mum benefits. Experience shows that during sponse to their threats increase. the military interventions of the past two dec- Thus, if successfully formed Ansarullah ades, Egypt has always led human resources powerful state in the country cans then Iran, and Saudi Arabia has been the source of Syria, Lebanon and Palestine, as the fifth funding interventions. (Glass, 2010: 23). member of the axis of resistance in order to Now Egypt is looking for the chance to at- weaken further the strategic interests of tend the Red Sea and Yemen have provided America's allies, especially Israel take steps. the possibility for them. Reasoned justifica- On the other hand,sudden rise in Yemen's tion for the presence of the Egyptian gov- Houthi strategic trump card and a bargaining ernment, the security of the Strait Bab Al chip for Iran against Saudi Arabia. Yemen mandab. could become a base for operations against Saudi Arabia's competitive. Iran and Saudi Persian Gulf Cooperation Council Arabia are two foreign players in the geopo- The Revolutionary Council to risk aggravat- litical conflicts in Yemen and they compete ing factor in the region and believe that the with each other. These extensive regional goals and ideas are not acceptable under any consequences that could balance of power in circumstances Houthis and the Yemeni peo- West Asia and even in North Africa will ple openly contrary to customs and security, change in the coming years. Tehran and peace, sovereignty and unity of Yemen com- Riyadh are estimating opponent's next move promise. on the chessboard of the region so that they With the extensive lobbying of the council can take countermeasures. In the current com- at the United Nations, the Security Council petitive environment, the two countries also on 26/01/94 to the Persian Gulf Cooperation have proxy wars in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Council issued a resolution against Yemen.. Yemen, visible effects of this competition. It actually complements the Saudi military International actors action plan, along with some other Arabic United States of America

International Journal of Political Science, Vol.7, No 1, Spring 2017 the country under its auspices, but in princi- Russia and China ple, the oil resources of the country, near Russians and Chinese are in favor of the Yemen to Saudi Arabia and considerations Yemeni revolution, as the Chinese did not led the West to dominate and fits Saudi Ara- close its embassy in Yemen's developments. bia, Yemen's geographical location, especial- This represents a gap in the international ly its proximity to the strategic Strait of Bab community and across the world over other el Mandeb, avoid pattern Yemen and other issues. Russians now because of issues of Arab nations of the Persian Gulf, especially Ukraine and Syria, especially the West sanc- Bahrain and Yemen are among the reasons tions against the country, a lot of problems, given America (Boordineh, 2004: 27). so that the final decisions have to be princi- America also of concern in Yemen, The pled position was not consistent with. If you country, especially after the abortive 2009 get in touch with Egypt to try to show more bombing of al-Qaeda in Detroit Airlines, mobility. The Russians are not interested concerns the spread of the terror network in sometimes in a central position to Saudi runs. Yemen increased Ast.trs The recent protests If many contradictions, especially after the in Yemen, the United States, expanding the Riyadh bombings in Moscow and the repub- scope of the continuation of instability and lics of the Russian Federation remains. civil war in the country. Which America does In general, both Russia and China have not want to Yemen because the country be- common positions are in most cases of which cause of the traditional tribal structure, the the United States unilaterally limits the exer- intensity has the potential to become a second cise of military power in the world and the Afghanistan? This is due to the specific situa- region. In this case, although apparently no tion of Yemen at the edge of the Strait of Bab United States military intervention in Yemen, el Mandab is justified. the Arabic troops led by Saudi intelligence The current US approach reflects three and logistical support for America's benefit. important elements in the macroeconomic It seems that Moscow and Beijing have de- policy of the US link the interests of America cided to act on the basis of their general in- and Israel, Israel, Yemen's revolution against terests and less to the arrival of a regional their own interests, and argues that the revo- conflict and addressing the issue of costs is lution in Yemen through the Red Sea could raised, the Chinese often withdraw from their endanger their interests (Jabal, 2015: 79). positions and are flexible (Phillips, 2015: 19) Second, Saudi Arabia is the alignment Amer- ica; America is trying to position itself in the Possible scenarios political organization - region's traditional allies and longtime friend, Space Yemen current trend, weakening or especially in the post King Abdullah is trying strength gain Ansar Allah to unite the interests of the framework and Evidence shows that many differences be- third, opposition to America with and anti- tween Ansar Allah and the three other major colonial revolution in the West Asian region, political party Yemen, Al Islah party, so that especially if these movements are influenced the Declaration does not support this Consti- and inspired by the Islamic revolution tution and in accordance with the Saudi ver- movement. West Front in the country to cre- sion goes, soda independence of South Yem- ate a stable and pro. en Socialist Party in the head and the Nation- al Congress party also opposed the dissolu-

The Analysis of the Developments in South West Asia … tion of parliament and the formation of a new Currently, the possibility of civil war in parliament. Yemen is predictable for the following rea- Hence, the creation of political consensus sons: Firstly: Al Islah party control of oil-rich seems difficult to Ansar Allah in Yemen. In province of Marib and Sana'a captured by the the second stage the current trend thanks to Yemeni government revenues from oil, domestic financial resources and foreign aid which makes up 70 percent of deprived is. depends Ansar Allah. Province is under con- Second, the Socialist Party and other groups trol so Ansarullah of internal weakness suf- and people in the south are under occupation fered severe funding. In the third stage the by the Houthis in Sanaa, Yemen, asserting continuing power of synergy Ansar Allah in their autonomy and even third-largest prov- Yemen, Ansar Allah opposite to what extent ince in terms of area (province of Shabwah) depends on external actors continues to push than from the control of the administrative this location. Continuation of the current sit- and military efforts in are available. Howev- uation in Yemen which resulted in the domi- er, the Socialist Party and the fall before the nation and consensus Ansar Allah surround resignation of Mansour Hadi, Sana'a, the Na- it, looks very weak. tional Dialogue Conference was consistent with Ansar Allah. The widespread presence of The expansion of civil war and disintegra- al-Qaeda in Shabwah province that even the tion southern and northern Yemen army was also associated with garrison infan- The possibility of civil war in Yemen likely try battalion, causes to be supported separa- not weak. Yemen among Arab countries in tism in southern Yemen. Third, the risk of civ- 2011 saw a change in power, the only coun- il war in Yemen linked to al-Qaeda. Especially try that has witnessed several years of civil in the southern Yemeni al-Qaeda presence is war from the late 1970s until 2011. A look at extensive and while some Yemeni tribes are at the political life of Yemen after independ- war with al Ansar Allah for help. ence from Britain in 1967 and 2012 showed that an important role in the construction of Military domination of the Persian Gulf power in Yemen civil war. In 1979, war and return pro-Western government broke out between North and South Yemen The third scenario, especially with the 2216 that eventually ended with the mediation of UN resolution could be brought to Yemen's the Arab League respectively. Only four current crisis, the possibility of legal and mil- years after the formation of a unified Yemen itary intervention led by Saudi Arabia's Per- in 1994, war broke out again between North sian Gulf Cooperation Council in Yemen. and South Yemen, Ali Salem Al Biz, Secre- Saudi Arabia extra power for two main rea- tary-General of the Yemeni Socialist Party, sons Houthis in Yemen in conflict with the the People's Republic of Yemen in the south interests and security of him. First, look at of the country declared independence, but the identity and sectarian Saudi power in the Ar- war of separation failure South Yemen sepa- ab world. Saudi Arabia, a Sunni leader's ratists ended. claim it is controlled by Shiite power in the The other two rounds of the 2010 war and Arab countries in line with their own interests the Houthis, the government fought Abdullah does not know. But the second reason Saudi Saleh. (Mousavi and Bagheri, 2013: 201). military intervention in the Persian Gulf Co-

International Journal of Political Science, Vol.7, No 1, Spring 2017 operation Council in Yemen to strengthen the portance, the issue of how to lead and control influence of Iran. Yemen is the backyard of the planned uprising aims to provide a plau- Saudi Arabia, by strengthening the power of sible scenarios on its political future and to the Houthis, who are close to the religious introduce effective player in the development identity of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the of this country. In order to assess possible Saudi foreign influence and strengthen Iran's future in Yemen, while reviewing the geopo- influence in Yemen.. So to control the situa- litical interests of the powers and interested tion and seize power by proxy in Yemen to actors at different levels of the crisis in Yem- attack and hit some countries in the region in en, behaviors, objectives and interests of the this regard has also brought with him. actors in the scene were examined Yemen. Then in the regional, strategies and objectives The model of Hezbollah in Lebanon and and interests of the three poles of the Yeme- the Houthis participation in power ni, Saudi, Iran and Persian Gulf Cooperation There is a fourth scenario that Yemen, the Council and friction affect the interests of the Houthis through a new political consensus regional powers poles were studied in Yemen and participation in power. This scenario, and in national as well as four actors internal however, can also be effective scenarios for Yemeni Houthi, Sunnis, al-Qaeda and tribes Yemen's current crisis, but if implemented, in the country were discussed. The author always under the shadow of political differ- introduces four levels of analysis proposed ences and divergences will be internal and scenario, which include: the continuation of external pressures. By increasing the seces- current trends likely to weaken or increase the sion of South Yemen, which is also associat- power Ansar Allah; second civil war and dis- ed with stimulation of Saudi Arabia and the integration of Yemen, South Yemen and United States, is faced with the risk analysis. North Yemen two countries; third foreign in- In fact, present-day Yemen is divided into tervention in Yemen Back in the Persian Gulf three political Sana'a and the Houthi northern cooperation Council and the government wish province of Marib and Al Islah and the to West and forth to explain the model of southern oil regions in the hands of the so- Hezbollah in Lebanon's new political consen- cialists are available. There is one of these sus between the parties and the Houthis partic- groups. On the other hand, the UN Security ipation in power, were discussed. Council also issued a resolution demanding the disarmament of Yemen's Ansar Allah. References All these problems lead to a scenario similar Brown, Carl, (1997), patterns that have been behavior pattern is presently Hezbollah in formed over time, translating blind, Lebanon to Yemen. Yemen denies political Ministry of Foreign Affairs. structure. Bruce, right, Star, (2002), world politics, the translation of hope, publication of In- Conclusion ternational Political Studies Office. During the uprisings of the broad public in Zbigniew Brzezinski, 2002, out of early 2011, a number of countries in Arabic - control, Nshreatlaat, Arabic Islamic West Asia embraced, what is Kennedy, Paul, in 1991, the rise and fall of trans-regional powers concerned, particularly great powers, translation Abdolreza relatives of their regional of great im-

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