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able 2: Aggregate Killings and Religion (1) (2) VARIABLES total casulties total casulties catholics * protestants 2.703*** 1.122** (0.507) (0.542) catholics 4.785*** 3.265*** (0.777) (1.242) protestants 0.493 -0.590 (0.603) (0.996) protestants * catholics 0.243*** in neighbourhood (0.0418) catholics * protestants 0.169*** in neighbourhood (0.0620) catholics in 0.165 neighbourhood (0.262) protestants in -0.0486 neighbourhood (0.156) Observations 582 582 R-squared 0.607 0.707 Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. The numbers of Catholics and Protestants are in all variables expressed in 1000 people. "Catholics (Protestants) in neighbourhood" is the sum of all Catholics (Protestants) in wards that have a boundary with the ward. Table 3: Disaggregate Killings and Religion PANEL A: Minimal Set of Controls (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) protestant state forces republicans catholic republicans catholic loyalists killed civilians killed killed by killed by state civilians killed killed by civilians killed VARIABLES by republicans by republicans republicans forces by state forces loyalists by loyalists catholics * protestants 0.0846* 0.251* 0.0306** 0.622** (0.0513) (0.148) (0.0147) (0.279) protestants * catholics 0.00928*** 0.0424** in neighbourhood (0.00358) (0.0182) catholics 0.000893 0.185 1.877*** 0.411*** 0.782*** 0.0166 0.0940 (0.0520) (0.237) (0.338) (0.0742) (0.151) (0.0271) (0.260) catholics in -0.00585 0.0112 0.130** neighbourhood (0.0117) (0.0626) (0.0542) catholics * protestants 0.00395** 0.0497* in neighbourhood (0.00190) (0.0293) protestants -0.0250 0.0253 -0.0180 0.372 (0.0251) (0.154) (0.0169) (0.396) protestants in 0.000514 0.0222 neighbourhood (0.00246) (0.0525) Observations 582 582 582 582 582 582 582 R-squared 0.433 0.370 0.411 0.274 0.383 0.270 0.504 PANEL B: Full Set of Controls (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) protestant state forces republicans catholic republicans catholic loyalists killed civilians killed killed by killed by state civilians killed killed by civilians killed VARIABLES by republicans by republicans republicans forces by state forces loyalists by loyalists catholics * protestants 0.0757 0.184 0.0998 -0.0131 -0.0613 0.0317** 0.407 (0.0616) (0.176) (0.245) (0.0876) (0.112) (0.0143) (0.321) protestants * catholics 0.00799** 0.0343*** 0.00829 0.00585 0.00453 -8.59e-05 0.122*** in neighbourhood (0.00348) (0.0124) (0.0156) (0.00494) (0.00839) (0.00208) (0.0261) catholics -0.0300 -0.0342 1.138** 0.263** 0.447* -0.00818 0.751* (0.0330) (0.174) (0.476) (0.127) (0.271) (0.0310) (0.405) catholics in 0.000271 0.0502 0.204* 0.00851 0.0292 0.00662 -0.114 neighbourhood (0.0107) (0.0379) (0.106) (0.0330) (0.0590) (0.0117) (0.0730) catholics * protestants 0.00249 0.0176 0.0476*** 0.0120 0.0305** 0.00433** 0.0230 in neighbourhood (0.00401) (0.0133) (0.0158) (0.0120) (0.0149) (0.00201) (0.0263) protestants 0.0164 0.274 -0.160 -0.0432 -0.101 -0.0215 -0.744** (0.0585) (0.474) (0.191) (0.0840) (0.0961) (0.0131) (0.310) protestants in -0.00800 -0.0467 -0.0432 -0.00567 -0.0160 -0.000422 0.123*** neighbourhood (0.00796) (0.0691) (0.0294) (0.0128) (0.0161) (0.00311) (0.0468) Observations 582 582 582 582 582 582 582 R-squared 0.439 0.377 0.438 0.313 0.459 0.275 0.644 Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. The numbers of Catholics and Protestants are in all variables expressed in 1000 people. "Catholics (Protestants) in neighbourhood" is the sum of all Catholics (Protestants) in wards that have a boundary with the ward. Bold numbers highlight coefficients that are predicted as positive according to our theory. Table 4: Tectonic Boundaries and the Construction of Barriers (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Dependent variable: Creation peace lines between the two wards of a dyad Tectonic tension between wards 0.0144*** 0.0144*** 0.0143*** 0.0152*** 0.0152*** 0.0151*** (0.0031) (0.0031) (0.0030) (0.0034) (0.0034) (0.0034) Total number of catholics in dyad -0.0538*** -0.0692*** -0.1556*** -0.1646*** (0.0174) (0.0187) (0.0198) (0.0198) Total number of protestants in dyad -0.0039 -0.0148 -0.1063*** -0.1114*** (0.0203) (0.0217) (0.0250) (0.0252) Tectonic tension within wards 0.0175 0.0153 (0.0114) (0.0123) Ward Fixed Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Sample All All All Belfast Belfast Belfast Observations 1603 1603 1603 176 176 176 R-squared 0.729 0.729 0.733 0.745 0.745 0.749 Note: The unit of observation is the dyad. OLS regressions with robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. The numbers of Catholics and Protestants are in all variables expressed in 1000 people. "Tectonic tension between wards" A and B is the number of Catholics in A multiplied by Protestants in B plus the number of Protestants in A multiplied by the number of Catholics in B. "Tectonic tension within wards" is the number of Catholics in A multiplied by the number of Protestants in A plus le number of Catholics in B multiplied by the number of Protestants in B. Table 5: Operation Motorhead and Violence (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) state forces protestant republicans catholic killed by civilians killed loyalists killed killed by state civilians killed VARIABLES republicans by republicans by republicans forces by state forces catholics * nogo area * before operation 0.0123 -0.00149 0.0201** Motorman (0.0180) (0.00878) (0.00872) catholics in neighbouring nogo area * before 0.00429 operation Motorman (0.00311) catholics * protestants * nogo area * before -0.00557 0.000622 operation Motorman (0.00490) (0.00426) catholics in neighbouring nogo area * before 0.00162** 8.30e-05 operation Motorman * protestants (0.000744) (0.000129) ward fixed effects yes yes yes yes yes time fixed effects yes yes yes yes yes Observations 13,386 13,386 13,386 13,386 13,386 R-squared 0.004 0.012 0.003 0.003 0.005 Number of wards 582 582 582 582 582 Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. The numbers of Catholics and Protestants are in all variables expressed in 1000 people. "Nogo area" is a dummy variable that takes the value of 1 if the ward was a nogo area in 1971. "Before operation Motorman" is a dummy that takes a value of 1 before August 1972. "Catholics in neighbouring nogo area" is the sum of Catholics in wards bordering the ward which are also nogo areas. Table 6: Effect of Boundary on Violence (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) protestant state forces republicans catholic republicans catholic loyalists killed civilians killed killed by killed by state civilians killed killed by civilians killed VARIABLES by republicans by republicans republicans forces by state forces loyalists by loyalists border ward -0.0118 0.306* 4.385*** -0.101 -0.334* 0.0105 -0.297 (0.0249) (0.177) (1.598) (0.0999) (0.199) (0.0369) (0.221) catholics * protestants 0.0846 0.252* 0.0306** 0.621** (0.0514) (0.148) (0.0147) (0.278) protestants * catholics 0.00926** 0.0429** in neighbourhood (0.00360) (0.0183) catholics 0.000810 0.187 1.847*** 0.414*** 0.791*** 0.0160 0.111 (0.0521) (0.237) (0.347) (0.0759) (0.154) (0.0281) (0.268) catholics in -0.00571 0.00754 0.103* neighbourhood (0.0119) (0.0630) (0.0563) catholics * protestants 0.00398** 0.0490* in neighbourhood (0.00192) (0.0294) protestants -0.0249 0.0239 -0.0181 0.374 (0.0252) (0.154) (0.0169) (0.396) protestants in 0.000520 0.0220 neighbourhood (0.00246) (0.0525) Observations 582 582 582 582 582 582 582 R-squared 0.433 0.371 0.460 0.275 0.386 0.270 0.504 Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. The numbers of Catholics and Protestants are in all variables expressed in 1000 people. "Catholics (Protestants) in neighbourhood" is the sum of all Catholics (Protestants) in wards that have a boundary with the ward. "Border ward" is a dummy that takes a value of 1 if the ward has a boundary with the Republic of Ireland. Table A1: Internal Killings (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) catholic civilians republicans protestant catholic civilians republicans protestant killed by killed by civilians killed loyalists killed killed by killed by civilians killed loyalists killed VARIABLES republicans republicans by loyalists by loyalists republicans republicans by loyalists by loyalists catholics * catholics 0.0870 0.0581* 0.0749 0.0491 -0.00153 0.0119 (0.0668) (0.0325) (0.0735) (0.0360) (0.0206) (0.0198) catholics * catholics in 0.00626 -0.00936 0.00628 -0.00911 -0.00500 -0.00371 neighbourhood (0.0292) (0.0123) (0.0305) (0.0133) (0.00600) (0.00612) catholics 0.227 0.193 0.380** 0.300** 0.0327 -0.0969 (0.141) (0.130) (0.166) (0.139) (0.0886) (0.0834) catholics in 0.0276 0.0265 0.00683 0.0121 0.0302 0.0255 neighbourhood (0.0213) (0.0195) (0.0324) (0.0235) (0.0194) (0.0248) protestants * protestants 0.107*** 0.0936*** 0.00735 0.0212 0.0995*** 0.0876*** (0.0143) (0.0121) (0.0222) (0.0195) (0.0138) (0.0146) protestants * protestants -0.000995 -0.00937* 0.0103 0.00227 0.00151 -0.00859 in neighbourhood (0.00577) (0.00542) (0.00802) (0.00527) (0.00595) (0.00607) protestants -0.246*** -0.161*** -0.119 -0.0872 -0.261*** -0.155*** (0.0493) (0.0427) (0.109) (0.0785) (0.0553) (0.0425) protestants in 0.0262*** 0.0238*** -0.0134 -0.00502 0.0151 0.0203 neighbourhood (0.00980) (0.00797) (0.0248) (0.0174) (0.0123) (0.0131) Observations 582 582 582 582 582 582 582 582 R-squared 0.446 0.316 0.602 0.531 0.468 0.338 0.614 0.542 Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. The numbers of Catholics and Protestants are in all variables expressed in 1000 people. "Catholics (Protestants) in neighbourhood" is the sum of all Catholics (Protestants) in wards that have a boundary with the ward. Bold numbers highlight coefficients that are predicted as positive according to our theory. Table A2: Main Results with Neighbourhood Defined as 2km PANEL A: Minimal Set of Controls (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) protestant state forces republicans catholic republicans catholic loyalists killed civilians killed killed by killed by state civilians killed killed by civilians killed VARIABLES by republicans by republicans republicans forces by state forces loyalists by loyalists catholics * protestants 0.0852* 0.184 0.0197 0.664*** (0.0496) (0.134) (0.0185) (0.234) protestants * catholics 0.00612*** 0.0428** in neighbourhood (0.00188) (0.0201) catholics -0.00560 0.505*** 2.118*** 0.411*** 0.782*** -0.00944 0.0952 (0.0277) (0.187) (0.237) (0.0742) (0.151) (0.0127) (0.248) catholics in -0.00284 -0.0734* 0.0713* neighbourhood (0.00756) (0.0434) (0.0418) catholics * protestants 0.00462** 0.0386** in neighbourhood (0.00194) (0.0170) protestants -0.0196 0.0490 -0.00709 0.576* (0.0212) (0.0817) (0.00939) (0.342) protestants in 0.000767 -0.0229 neighbourhood (0.00233) (0.0456) Observations 582 582 582 582 582 582 582 R-squared 0.452 0.411 0.406 0.274 0.383 0.366 0.509 PANEL B: Full Set of Controls loyalists(1) killed protestant(2) state(3) forces republicans(4) catholic(5) republicans(6) catholic(7) VARIABLES by republicans civilians killed killed by killed by state civilians killed killed by civilians killed catholics * protestants 0.0648 0.163 0.114 -0.0140 -0.0226 0.0165 0.589** protestants * catholics (0.0558) (0.143) (0.258) (0.0790) (0.111) (0.0179) (0.265) in neighbourhood 0.00637*** 0.0398** 0.0124 0.000792 -0.00683 0.000810 0.0197 (0.00171) (0.0195) (0.0145) (0.00293) (0.00640) (0.00111) (0.0192) catholics -0.0339 0.336* 1.840*** 0.185*** 0.262 -0.00105 0.228 catholics in (0.0211) (0.174) (0.359) (0.0538) (0.178) (0.0209) (0.321) neighbourhood -0.00575 -0.0447 0.0344 0.0176 0.0725 -0.00204 -0.0178 catholics * protestants (0.00650) (0.0421) (0.105) (0.0191) (0.0513) (0.00540) (0.0550) in neighbourhood 0.00317 0.0122** 0.0295*** 0.0129* 0.0254*** 0.00460** 0.0380** (0.00254) (0.00550) (0.0104) (0.00751) (0.00944) (0.00196) (0.0173) protestants 0.00270 0.232** 0.0416 0.0213 -0.0243 -0.0117 0.452 protestants in (0.0283) (0.114) (0.132) (0.0412) (0.0656) (0.00826) (0.395) neighbourhood -0.00254 -0.0503*** -0.0678*** -0.0143** -0.0245** 0.000930 -0.0275 (0.00445) (0.0172) (0.0224) (0.00598) (0.0103) (0.00175) (0.0497) Observations 582 582 582 582 582 582 582 R-squared 0.470 0.424 0.427 0.347 0.518 0.368 0.519 Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. The numbers of Catholics and Protestants are in all variables expressed in 1000 people. "Catholics (Protestants) in neighbourhood" is the sum of all Catholics (Protestants) in wards that have a boundary with the ward. Bold numbers highlight coefficients that are predicted as positive according to our theory.