THE LONG WALK TO MAYBE: Supporters for the Yes and No campaigns argue in Edinburgh on September 8. REUTERS/RUSSELL CHEYNE

SCOTLAND Scots warm to the power of Yes Thanks to an energetic and targeted ground campaign, Scottish voters look increasingly likely to ditch Britain

BY ALISTAIR SMOUT

SPECIAL REPORT 1 THE POWER OF YES

DEBATE DAY: Better Together’s Darling (left) and Scottish First Minister Salmond argue over independence in late last month. Darling won a television debate in early August, but Salmond came back strongly in this second debate. REUTERS/DAVID CHESKIN/POOL

GLASGOW, SEPTEMBER. 11, 2014 heckler continued to shout criticism of percent to 49. Thanks to the Yes campaign’s Brown’s Labour government and its poli- savvier ground game, the gap between the n late August, and cies before officials removed him. two sides has tightened dramatically in the shared the stage as The incident captures a lot about the past few weeks, down from an average of Ipart of the push to keep Scotland in the Scottish independence debate: the passion well over 10 points for most of the year un- United Kingdom. and even anger of secessionists; the difficul- til August. With pollsters expecting up to The two Scotsmen, Britain’s prime min- ty unionists have in making their argument; 80 percent of all Scottish voters to have a ister and finance minister between 2007 even the strange political alliances that have say in the referendum – in a general elec- and 2010, often fought each other in office. formed, especially as the unionists have tion typically only around 60 percent of Darling once described his old boss as “bru- grown more desperate. Scots vote – the outcome is almost impos- tal and volcanic.” Brown reportedly wanted A week before the referendum on Sept. sible to predict. to sack Darling during the financial crisis. 18, is with those who want For Scots nationalists, a vote for full But now here was Brown waxing lyri- change. statehood for the first time since 1707 cal about Darling, who heads the “Better A Sept. 7 poll for YouGov showed sup- would be the realisation of what seemed Together” campaign that is trying to con- port for independence in the lead - 51 like an improbable dream, one they have vince Scots to reject independence. worked towards for decades. “It’s his expertise and integrity and For the rest of Britain, a “yes” vote would strength of purpose that is winning this If we lost Scotland, if the UK mean profound change. Scotland, with its argument,” Brown told the crowd of a few changed, we would rip the rug $250-billion economy, 5.3 million people, hundred in a meeting hall in the coastal city from under our own reputation. oil industry, and nuclear submarine base, of Dundee. would split away, leaving what’s left of “Rubbish!” a heckler in the back of the David Cameron Britain with a $2.25 trillion economy and room shouted. “Absolute rubbish!” The British Prime Minister 58.8 million people.

SPECIAL REPORT 2 SCOTLAND THE POWER OF YES

That would mark an ignominious end for a geopolitical construct that has, in dif- ferent forms, spanned the heyday of the British Empire, the U.S. war of indepen- dence, and two world wars. It would hurt Prime Minister David Cameron, who would surely come under pressure to quit as the man who lost Scotland, but would also hurt the opposition Labour Party be- cause the loss of Scotland would leave what remains of Britain more politically conser- vative. That could make it more likely that Britain pulls out of the European Union. “Together, we get a seat at the U.N. Security Council, real clout in NATO and Europe, and the prestige to host events like the G8,” Cameron said a few weeks ago. “If we lost Scotland, if the UK changed, we would rip the rug from under our own YES!: Salmond, with independence supporters earlier this week, has led Scotland to the brink of an reputation.” historic break with Britain. REUTERS/RUSSELL CHEYNE

THE ‘YES’ GROUND GAME If the Yes campaign wins, many will put it of a total belief in Scotland,” says Stephen down to its ability to get out its message in Noon, its chief strategist. “Independence is cities and villages across the country. not going to be a land of milk and honey “I’ve had two brochures from Yes million but there’s no challenge we can’t actually Scotland last week, two the week before, a 5.3 deal with.” van even drove up my street playing ‘Moving Population of Scotland, compared One of the independence campaign’s on Up,’ said one resident in Edinburgh to 58.8 million in the rest of the main tactics has been to target disaffected who supports staying in Britain. “Someone United Kingdom Labour voters. Scotland mostly votes for came to my door the other day... it turned left-of-centre parties and resents any na- out they were from Better Together. I told Source:UK Office for National Statistics tional government led by the right-wing them ‘you need to step it up!’” Conservative Party. In recent times, that The voter declined to be named, fearing, sense of alienation even existed under she said, “a brick through the window” from fields and could raise its own taxes, it says. Labour, which governed Britain between an angry nationalist. She described some , Scotland’s charismatic 1997 and 2010. Yes campaigners as “bullies,” but conceded and combative First Minister and head Labour gave powers to a new Scottish they were doing a better job of mobilising of the Yes campaign, calls his opponents’ parliament, promising that would re- support on the ground. (Despite a lot of campaign “” because of what he move the “threat of separatism.” But de- online vitriol there have been few incidents says is its relentless negativity. spite their greater autonomy, many Scots of violence.) At the heart of his campaign has been felt the Labour government in London The pro-independence camp, Yes the paradoxical offering that Scots could veered too far to the right, especially on is- Scotland, argues that Scotland, which al- keep many of the trappings of the UK sues such as the 2003 invasion of Iraq. In ready has its own parliament with oversight while simultaneously leaving it. An inde- 2011, Scots voting in a Scottish parliamen- of policy areas such as health and educa- pendent Scotland could keep the pound, tary election overwhelmingly opted for the tion, would be freer, better governed and still have the Queen as its head of state, and populist (SNP). wealthier if it went it alone. It would be able still build Britain’s warships, he argues. The surprise nationalist victory gave SNP to use the revenues from its North Sea oil “Our campaign has been around the idea Text continues on page 5

SPECIAL REPORT 3 SCOTLAND THE POWER OF YES

Should Scotland be an independent country? Scotland will vote on September 18 on whether to become an independent country, ending a 307-year union with England and splitting from the rest of the United Kingdom.

Ipsos-Mori YouGov TNS LATEST POLL: AUG. 5, 2014* LATEST POLL: SEP. 1, 2014* LATEST POLL: SEP. 9, 2014* YES 4040 5440 NO YES 47 45 NO YES 38 39 NO

75% 75%

50 50

25 25

0 0 APRIL JULYOCT. 2014 APRIL JULY OCT. 2014 APRIL JULY SEP. 2014 APRIL SEP. *1,006 respondents (July 28 - August 3) *1,084 respondents (September 2-5) *990 respondents (August 27 - September 4) Margin of error of +/-3%. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.

How dierent groups responded since September 2013 Latest YouGov polls show the gender gap is narrowing. While a poll in August found that 58% of female voters were likely to vote No, the number dropped to 47% ten days before the referendum. Yes leads across all age groups, except those aged over 60.

Gender groupsAge groups MALE FEMALE 16-24 25-39 40-59 OVER 60 75% 75%

50 50

25 25

0 0

Charts show YouGov poll results since September 2013 and include undecided voters. Source: Poll agencies M. Ulmanu/Reuters Graphics

SPECIAL REPORT 4 SCOTLAND THE POWER OF YES

SCOTTISH PATTERNS: Images of Scotland have regularly been used during the independence campaign. Clockwise from top left: The Royal Stewart tartan; a sporran, part of traditional Highland dress; the first gold coin minted in Scotland; single malt whisky; a souvenir golf ball from St. Andrews; Scottish shortbread. REUTERS/SUZANNE PLUNKETT (1-6)

leader Salmond a mandate for this year’s polite,” McDonald says. But anyone who Joe Docherty, an 18-year-old Yes cam- referendum. rates themselves a five, six, seven or eight paign volunteer, joined the nationalist In the Pollok area of Glasgow, where is given information about how Scotland movement after the SNP’s surprise 2011 joblessness runs high, some traditional would be better off solo and targeted for a victory. This is his first campaign but Labour voters now seem more open to return visit. Docherty speaks eloquently about his hope breaking away, which is why organisers of The idea is to convert these people in the for an independent Scotland, with a parlia- the Yes campaign have been pounding the middle one by one. Sometimes, the Yes cam- ment more responsive to Scotland’s needs footpaths for months. Pollok has nearly paign will even ask pro-independence family than Westminster in far-off London. 4,000 unemployed adults, the third most in members to tackle more sceptical relatives. “When two governments make deci- Scotland, and Labour clung on to the seat Yes campaigners like to play up the no- sions affecting one nation, policy can’t be by fewer than 650 votes in 2011. tion that they are a big, diverse tent. “It’s not consistent. Devolution is fundamentally “When we’re on doorsteps, people are our debate anymore. It’s the people’s debate, flawed,” he said, demonstrating an engage- saying ‘If we only vote once, it will be in and we can’t control it,” Calum Cashley, an ment with the issues that is not unusual September. This is our chance to change SNP activist in Edinburgh, said. “At first, among Scotland’s younger voters. something,’” said David McDonald, a local as a political person, I was worried by that. That sort of engagement and attention SNP councillor. But in fact it’s hugely liberating.” to detail has helped energise the campaign, A recent two-hour canvassing session Door-knocking is not always easy. One even if for years polls had shown support shows how the Yes campaign does it. Half Yes campaigner in Pollok was deterred by for independence to be stuck between a a dozen volunteers garner the opinions of a bulldog. “He’s English,” the dog’s owner quarter and a third of voters. “The Yes cam- more than 100 residents, who are asked to offered by way of explanation. At another paign has definitely got anyone who poten- rate their views on a scale of one to 10, one house a head appeared over the fence. “Not tially might have been persuadable,” said being completely against independence today guys, OK?” the resident said firmly. Rachel Ormston, senior research director and 10 being for it. But elsewhere the campaigners were re- at ScotCen Social Research. Nines and 10s are seen as certain Yes ceived warmly. One man approached the “A BIT RUBBISH” votes, while people who rate themselves group for stickers that he could put on the four are “probably ‘no’ voters who are being cars of neighbours who were voting “no”. Anti-independence campaigners argue

SPECIAL REPORT 5 SCOTLAND THE POWER OF YES

MUSIC AND FOOD: Clockwise from top left: A BP North Sea oil platform; a Tunnock’s Tea Cake, first produced in 1890; a busker’s bagpipes; Lewis chessmen, crafted from walrus ivory and whales’ teeth and discovered in 1831 on the Isle of Lewis; Harris Tweed from the Outer Hebrides; cans of Tennent’s Lager, first brewed in 1885, and Scotland’s best-selling lager.REUTERS/ANDY BUCHANAN/POOL (1); SUZANNE PLUNKETT (2-6)

that Scotland already has the best of both and felt it stereotyped women as ditherers. it was time for Scotland to throw off their worlds: continued membership of the UK “Better Together’s patronising woman oppressors. and increasing autonomy. Why would any- helped, undoubtedly, because engagement “How dare they?” Findlay asked. “One one want to risk that, they ask, especially on our Facebook went up 1,200 percent of his (Mandela’s) greatest achievements when an independent Scotland would be in a week,” Natalie McGarry, a founder of was keeping his country together – they’re unable to formally keep the pound and , said. trying to take it apart, trying to create struggle to rejoin the EU. Better Together defended the video and division.” “If we decide to leave, there is no going said it represented concerns regularly raised Other “no” voters say they have become back, there is no second chance,” Darling by voters. The first YouGov poll to show Yes increasingly reluctant to speak out for fear told voters in August. in the lead saw a substantial rise in support of being branded un-Scottish. One pro- But despite the fact they started with from women; experts said that women were union Labour MP, Jim Murphy, found his such a clear lead, the Better Together camp simply making their minds up later. attempts at a grassroots tour of 100 towns has struggled to motivate voters and defend Some pro-union campaigners acknowl- in 100 days disrupted when he was egged its majority. edge that they had struggled to get across by an opponent in , in what he One of the problems has been a relent- their message. has described as an attempt to silence him. less focus on the potential risks of separa- “The posters, the video, it’s all a bit rub- The Yes campaign says the aggression runs tion rather than the benefits of staying bish,” said Bruce Findlay, the former man- in both directions. Police have investigated united. There have also been specific mis- ager of Scottish rock group Simple Minds, online death threats against Alex Salmond, steps. Women and older people have ex- shortly before giving a speech outlining the who dismissed those behind them as “cyber pressed consistent support for staying in benefits of the United Kingdom. “It’s hard clowns.” Britain. But a Better Together campaign for the No campaign ... backing the word The No campaign has also struggled to video that targeted undecided female vot- “no” and trying to put a positive spin on it.” coordinate the three main national par- ers - and featured an actress complaining Findlay felt that the Yes campaign had ties – Labour, the Conservatives and the “there’s only so many hours in the day” to escaped deep scrutiny; he was angry that Liberal Democrats. All three parties want decide how to vote - ended up backfiring some Yes campaigners had invoked the to keep Scotland in the union. But while because viewers saw it as condescending name of Nelson Mandela and suggested the Conservatives and Lib Dems currently

SPECIAL REPORT 6 SCOTLAND THE POWER OF YES

IN GOOD HEALTH AND BAD: Clockwise from top left: Haggis ready to be eaten at the world haggis eating competition in August; a bottle of Irn-Bru soda, made since 1901 and described by its maker as Scotland’s “other national drink”; a deep fried Mars bar from a fish and chips bar in Kilmarnock; the Onopordum acanthium, or Scottish thistle; a design commemorating Scottish hero Robert the Bruce in Kelso; a handwritten manuscript by Scottish poet Robert Burns. REUTERS/RUSSELL CHEYNE (1); SUZANNE PLUNKETT (2, 3, 4, 6); TOBY MELVILLE (5)

govern together, the No campaign has or powers for Scotland that would fol- “If they’re surprised at what’s happen- largely rested on the Labour machine in low a No vote, turning the unionists’ tac- ing, it’s because they haven’t been paying Scotland. tic against them. With confusion over key attention.” issues, nationalists have sought to simplify AFTER THE DEBATES the debate: the brave chance of a better fu- With additional reporting by Andrew Osborn Mild-mannered Darling outflankedture, or the status quo. and Guy Faulconbridge Salmond in the first televised debate on That the choice is so stark is mostly Editing by Simon Robinson Aug. 5. Salmond seemed uncertain and down to British Prime Minister David evasive and Darling won points by focusing Cameron. He insisted that the referendum on Salmond’s views on currency. All three question be a simple in-out choice, rather national parties say they will not formally than including the possibility of much share the British pound with Scotland; greater devolution within the union. Salmond says this is a bluff. As support for independence surged in The Yes campaign vowed to be clearer the past few weeks, the three national par- on issues such as currency and by the sec- ties promised a new timetable for extra ond debate on Aug. 22 a much more ani- powers and greater autonomy - as long as FOR MORE INFORMATION mated Salmond dominated. Scots voted No. London-based politicians Alistair Smout, Reporter “If Alistair Darling wanted a joust, then headed north to try and shore up the vote. [email protected] he got one,” a senior source in the Yes cam- Critics dismissed the late interest as panic. Simon Robinson, Enterprise Editor, paign told Reuters. “I think that sometimes the media and Europe, Middle East and Africa “And Alec is better at jousting.” Westminster politicians operate on a dif- [email protected] Since then, Salmond has emphasised ferent level to what’s happening on the Michael Williams, Global Enterprise Editor the uncertainty on issues such as Europe ground,” the Yes campaign source said. [email protected]

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