TEL AVIV UNIVERSITY January 2000

BULLETIN

Nos. 23-24 JAFFEE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES

Newly published: 19991999 Tshetshik Prize Awarded

The Middle East Military Bal- ance 1999-2000 was published in December 1999. This is the first in the series to be published by MIT press for the Belfer Center for Sci- ence and International Affairs Prof. Shai Feldman, head of JCSS, Maj. Gen. Doron Almog, Lt. Gen. (BCSIA) at Harvard University. - IDF Chief of Staff, and Mr. Yaacov Lifshitz. The opening chapters of the Bal- ance this year analyze qualitative di- On September 21, 1999, the JCSS held the annual Tshetshik awards mensions of land, air, and naval ceremony. The recipients of the prize this year – Maj. Gen. Doron Almog, forces in the Middle East. The sec- Head of the IDF's Training and Doctrine Division and Mr. Yaacov Lifshitz, ond part provides a detailed account Chairman of the Board of Israeli Military Industries (IMI)–presented highlights of the military forces of all states in from their research. The keynote speaker was Mr. Yaacov Peri, president of the region, based on a wealth of data Cellcom and former head of General Security Services who addressed from varied sources. the issue of Israeli-Palestinian disengagement. 2 JCSS Bulletin Israel and the Prior to a Final Status Agreement

In October 1998, the Jaffee Center declaration of independent statehood After the May elections, the focus of initiated a research project entitled were discussed. The participants the study shifted to the attempt to “May 1999: Israel and the Palestinians examined the impact of such a ascertain the optimal means of Prior to a Final Status Agreement.” declaration on Israel, the Palestinians, managing Israeli-Palestinian relations The project’s main aim was to the United States, the European until a final status agreement is contribute to the public debate and Union, Egypt, Jordan and Syria. reached. As a consequence of provide input to decision makers on Following the decision to hold the additional workshops conducted since two basic questions: first, the prospects and Prime Ministerial elections the elections, it is anticipated that by of an extension of the five-year Israeli- in mid-May (earlier than originally early 2000 the project will produce a Palestinian interim accords, which planned), the Jaffee Center decided to report centering on the efforts to were to expire on May 4, 1999; publish the first document of this conclude a Final status Agreement second, the implications for the parties project, entitled Interim Agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. in the peace process should May 4, or and the Israeli Elections. This any future interim accord deadline, document explored Israeli, Palestinian pass before a final status agreement is and US perspectives regarding the concluded. The project is being expiration of the interim agreement, financed by the Ford Foundation. which coincided with Israeli national The project is being conducted with elections. The study focused on two the help of a study group composed questions: how would the election of Jaffee Center research staff campaign affect the prospects of members and other experts, including extending the interim period; and what former government and senior IDF should Israel’s policy be until May 4, officials. The group held a number of 1999? The study concluded that the one and two-day workshops at Neve Palestinians will refrain from unilateral Ilan and Ma’ale Ha-Hamisha outside action, and that the interim agreement , during which the security, would continue at least until the political, economic and legal establishment of a new Israeli implications of a Palestinian government.

Prof. Shai Feldman, Head of JCSS BULLETIN Dr. Ephraim Kam, Deputy Head of JCSS

JCSS INTERNATIONAL BOARD OF TRUSTEES: The JCSS Bulletin is published Chairman: Melvin Jaffee bi-annually by the Jaffee Center Immediate Past Chairman: Joseph H. Sterlitz (d.) for Strategic Studies, Mr. Arnold Aronoff, Mr. Robert H. Arnow, Mr. Newton D. Becker, Mr. & Mrs. Jack. Berlin, Mr. Tel Aviv University, Ramat Aviv, Henry Borenstein, Mr. Edgar M. Bronfman, Mr. Simon Chilewitch, Mr. Bertram J. Cohn, Mr. Tel Aviv 69978, Israel. Steward M. Colton, Mr. Lester Crown, Mr. & Mrs. Shimon Erem, Dr. Gerald Falwell, Mr. Allan The Bulletin may be obtained free of Fainbarg, Mr. Jacob Feldman, Mr. Arnold D. Feuerstein, Mr. David Furman, Mr. Guilford Glazer, charge from the Center. Mr. Burton E. Glazov, Mr. Eugene M. Grant, Mr. & Mrs. Vernon Green, Mr. Martin J. Gross, Mr. Irving B. Harris, Mr. & Mrs. Melvin Jaffee, Mrs. Betty Jaffee, Mr. Marvin Josephson, Mr. & Editors: Moshe Grundman Mrs. Joel Knapp, Mr. Fred Kotek, Mr. & Mrs. Raymond Kulek, Mr. Mark Lambert, Mr. Edward Emily Landau C. Levy, Jr., Mr. Peter A. Magowan, Mr. Judd D. Malkin, Mr. Stephen Meadow, Mr. Gary P. Tamar Malz Ratner, Mr. Raphael Recanati, Mr. Meshulam Riklis, Mr. Morris Rodman, Mr. Elihu Rose, Mr. Steve Rodan Malcom M. Rosenberg, Mr. Irving Schneider, Mr. Yehochai Schneider, Mr. Marvin Simon, Ms. Graphic Design: Lillian Solomon, Mr. & Mrs. Ed Stein, Mr. Walter P. Stern, Mr. Lawrence A. Tisch, Mr. David Tamar Lantzer Warsaw, Mr. Marvin A. Weiss, Mr. Martin J. Whitman, Mr. Emanuel A.. Winston, Mr. Bert L. Photography: Wolstein, Mr. Paul Yanowicz, Michal Roche Ben-Ami January 2000 3

Strategic Dialogue with German Experts

On June 8-9, 1999, the Jaffee Center regarded as different, particularly in and Ebenhausen Germany’s Stiftung wake of recent developments in Iran. Wissenschaft und Politik inaugurated Subsequent topics of discussion were a dialogue on the security of Europe the role of Turkey, placed between and the Middle East. The first meeting Europe and the Middle East, and the was funded with support from the differing US and European Friedrich Ebert Foundation. perspectives on the Middle East. The Discussions on the first day focused on group of German researchers was led the implications of the Israeli elections by Dr. Christoph Bertram, head of the for advancing peace negotiations on Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik. Additional participants were Minister Prof. Shlomo Ben Ami greets Klaus-Dieter Frankenberger Maj. Gen. A. Tamir and Brig. Gen. (res.) of the Frankfurter A. Shalev (JCSS). Allgemeine Zeitung, Christoph Moosbauer, a member of Germany’s Bundestag, and Volkmar Wenzel, from the German Foreign Ministry. Also joining JCSS researchers in addressing the forum were Professor David Menashri, (l. to r.) JCSS head Prof. Shai Feldman, Dr. Tel Aviv University, who Christoph Bertram, Minister of Internal Security spoke about the domestic Prof. Shlomo Ben-Ami, and Dr. Winfried Veit, situation in Iran; Ambassador head of Friedrich Ebert Foundation. Alon Liel who presented his views on Turkey; and Zeev Prof. Asher Susser (Dayan Center) with the Palestinian and Syrian tracks. One Schiff, defense editor of Ha’aretz, JCSS researchers, Dr. Ephraim Kam of the German researchers, Dr. Volker who discussed the peace process. A and Brig. Gen. (res.) Shlomo Brom. Perthes of Stiftung Wissenschaft und reception and dinner was held on the Politik, who spent time in Damascus evening of the first day of discussions. before coming to Israel, provided his MK Professor Shlomo Ben Ami, now views on the atmosphere in Syria Minister of Internal Security, following the Israeli elections. The presented a foreign policy agenda for Dialogue with the German guests at President of Tel Aviv University, Prof. the Barak government. JCSS conference room. Itamar Rabinovich, who headed Israel’s delegation to the talks with Syria during the Rabin government, provided an assessment of the prospects of renewing Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations. Discussion in the afternoon focused on European security in the aftermath of the NATO campaign in Yugoslavia and the implications for the Middle East. The second day began with a discussion of the Iranian and Iraqi threats of weapons of mass destruction. The two threats were 4 JCSS Bulletin

An international workshop on The Lt. Gen. Robert Scales, commandant Future of Military Doctrine was of the US Army War College looked organized by the Jaffee Center and further into the future. He addressed cosponsored by MIT’s Security Studies the US Army beyond the year 2010. Program, and the Belfer Center for In his speech, General Scales Science and International Affairs at highlighted the Army after Next Harvard University’s JFK School of Project carried out under his TheThe fufu Government. The conference was command. devised and coordinated by Dr. Ariel Other speakers noted the 25th Sobelman, Director of the Jaffee anniversary of the 1973 Yom Kippur Center’s project on Information war and analyzed the impact of the Warfare and Ms. Tamar Malz, Senior war on military doctrines in the United Research Assistant. States, Russia and Israel. US Army International Conference MilitaryMilitary The conference was held on March General Donn Starry; General 16-18, 1999, at the Dan Caesarea Mahmut Gareyev, former Deputy director of the IDF’s research group on Hotel in the ancient Roman port city Chief of Staff of the Red Army; and operational doctrine, discussed the state of Caesarea. During the 3-day Israeli Brig. Gen (res.) Dov Tamari of operational knowledge in the Israeli meeting, senior US and Israeli military discussed their countries’ defense system. officers joined Israeli and American perspectives. The second day of the conference defense scholars, as well as a group of The second session explored the art focused on the future of military participants from Britain, Russia and of military operations and the operations. In an exciting series of Sweden, for a debate on the future of American military doctrine. The conference was conceptual designed to ascertain the future military revolution from doctrines of technologically advanced two approaches. countries such the United States and A theoretical Israel. Participants stressed ways in approach was which emerging information presented by Dr. technologies are likely to affect military James Blackwell doctrines. from the Science The conference was designed to be Application an intensive closed workshop. The first International day focused on military theory and Corporation in speakers discussed changes in doctrine Washington over the last 20 years. The second day D.C. and a examined the future of military senior consultant operations from the perspective of the for Andrew military commander. The last day of Marshall, (l.to r.) Lt. Gen. Robert Scales, US Army War College Com- the conference was devoted to plenary director of the mandant, General Donn Starry, US Army and British Army sessions and summaries. US Defense Attache in Israel, Col. Euan Houston, exchanging ideas. The conference opened with a gala Department dinner and was addressed by two Office of Net Assessment. Lt. Gen. sessions, US and Israeli officers leading commanders. IDF Chief of Don Holder presented the practical presented ideas and insights on the Staff, Lt. Gen. Shaul Mofaz discussed approach to revolutionizing future of military operations in land, air, the reorganization and strengthening operational art in the US Army. sea, low intensity conflict and of the military during its ten-year plan. The third session of the day examined information operations. The first pair The chief of staff reviewed the history the nature of applying theories to of speakers was Maj. Gen. Doron of Israel’s military and the changes practice in both the US and Israeli Almog, head of the IDF Training and required to adapt to the information militaries. This issue was addressed Doctrine Division, and Col. Euan revolution. by US Colonel Douglas Macgregor, Houston of the British Army. General director of the SHAPE Joint Almog and Colonel Houston presented The Jaffee Center for Strategic Operations Center in NATO the land and air-land approach. General Studies expresses its deep headquarters in Brussels. Colonel Almog described two types of concepts gratitude to Macgregor presented his work on that concern IDF responses during war. Martin J. Whitman (New York) designing a new land force for the 21st The first is the “Carousel Effect”, the for his support of this century in the US Army. Dr. Shimon effect of the military’s response to land threats from Israel’s first tier adversaries. conference. Naveh, director of the Cummings Center at Tel Aviv University and The “Pendulum Effect” represents the January 2000 5

defuse conflicts around the globe. estimating the costs of the expected This, he emphasized, requires new revolution in military affairs. A general thinking. The final day of the debate of the issues raised during the conference was opened by Dr. Cindy first two days of the conference Williams, former Director of National followed. The debate was moderated Security at the Congressional Budget by Prof. Shai Feldman, Head of the tureture ofof Office, who presented an approach to Jaffee Center, and by Prof. Stephen Van Evera of MIT. DoctrineDoctrine

IDF’s capacity to move rapidly between fronts and theaters. This effect would apply to the air force, but would also include information operations. Professor Williamson Murray of the Industrial College of the US Armed TAU President, Prof. Itamar Rabinovich Dr. Ariel Sobelman, Conference Coor- Forces and Colonel Amir Chodorov of with Prof. Barry Posen (l.), and Prof. dinator (l.) with Prof. Shai Feldman, the Israeli Air Force tackled the Stephen Van Evera of MIT head of JCSS. challenges of future air and air-land operations. In the naval arena, Rear Admiral Welcoming remarks by Lt. Gen. Yedidya Ya’ari, deputy commander of the , stated his vision of Shaul Mofaz, IDF Chief of Staff future naval operations. He envisioned a navy that can rapidly transport It is my great pleasure to open this agenda, and will have a dramatic soldiers via ships and submarines as conference on the Future of Militar impact on the way the IDF looks and well as deploy fighting vessels long conference, organized by the Jaffee fights in the future - 2010 to 2020. distances from their base. Dr. Jane Center for Strategic Studies, together In a world, which is increasingly Holl, Director of the Carnegie with important partners from the information based,information Commission on Preventing Deadly United States, which represents one technologies are dramatically Conflict addressed the challenges of the largest and most changing the ways in which the IDF posed by low intensity conflicts. Dr. comprehensive efforts we have seen will fight in the future. It is our duty Michael Vlahos and Professor Robert to bring together such a large number to explore and examinethese Bunker highlighted the nature of of senior officers and military scholars conflict in the digital world and the from both the United States and mechanisms by which information Israel, to explore the ways in which warfare will fit into future military advanced militaries like the US and operations and doctrine. Israel will develop newdoctrines for The afternoon session was devoted the information age. I wish to thank to the challenges of designing and and acknowledge the Jaffee Center building a force structured along the and its American partners for the concepts described during the morning very important effort to make discussions. Brig. Gen. Eival Gilady possible this conference. I am sure of the IDF Planning Branch and the results of the conference will Professor Barry Posen of MIT’s contribute greatly to our Security Studies Program presented understanding of many of the most two approaches. General Gilady important questions on today’s presented the IDF concept of long security agenda. Among them are the term flexible planning, which, he future of military operations, argued, will allow significant information warfare, the process of adjustments to the ten-year plan. military innovation, and leading Professor Posen said the US army no doctrinal changes. These questions, longer focuses on Russian troops in and many others, are increasingly Europe, and that today’s mission is to important on Israel’s national security 6 JCSS Bulletin

questions in the IDF. This conference At Ceremony for new book is one of the most important by Nachman Tal: examples of this learning process, to which the IDF is committed. DF Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Shaul Mofaz GSS Chief Ayalon delivering the keynote address at the opening dinner. The Jaffee Center, since its foundation by General warns of internal Aharon ‘Arale’ Yariv, has been a partner in the strategic and security debate in Israel. Professor Shai dissention Feldman, Head of the Center, is Israel's domestic intelligence chief its threat to society. He recalled a leading a policy of researching issued a clear warning that Israel’s recent government-sponsored seminar questions that have both academic divided society would find it difficult to on national security doctrine. In the value, as well as practical applications withstand the growing threat of four days of discussions, he said, only for Israel’s defense community. The terrorism and nonconventional 15 minutes were devoted to the issue. conference we are opening tonight weapons. General Security Services The GSS chief said prolonged is an expression of this policy led by (GSS) chief Ami Ayalon stressed that terrorism and other threats have Professor Feldman. the country will have to close ranks to divided Israeli society. He said the I wish also to acknowledge a young face these threats. country is split between the Jewish researcher at the Jaffee Center, Dr. "We are entering a long-term conflict majority and the Arab minority as well Ariel Sobelman, who organized the with terrorism and nuclear-biological- as between Jews. conference. Dr. Sobelman’s chemical threat Ayalon said a dedication and devotion to the that will require large minority of cooperation between the IDF and the the entire Israeli Israelis does not Jaffee Center have made this society to recruit recognize the basic conference possible. all of its energies," symbols of the Finally, I wish to thank and Ayalon said. He Jewish State. acknowledge the many distinguished also emphasized "Between 30 and guests who have traveled a long that these threats 40 percent of the distance to be with us at this must be faced population in conference. Among them, General primarily not by Israel will not stand Donn Starry, who is no stranger to soldiers but by the Shabtai Shavit, former Head of or sing when the Israel and has visited here many society at large. Mossad, Ami Ayalon, chief of GSS anthem is played," times. Mr. Andrew Marshall, director “The more long- and Nachman Tal. he said. of the Office of Net Assessment at term the threat, Tal's book traces the Pentagon could not be with us the greater the need for cohesion. A the Islamic struggle for power in Egypt tonight for personal reasons, but his long war divides society. The longer a and Jordan. Tal, a former GSS senior senior staff is with us, and this also is society is subjected to this threat the official, said that the fundamentalists a valuable expression of the greater the importance of cohesion." of the 1990s are younger and more friendship and alliance between the Ayalon delivered the keynote address educated than their predecessors. He two security establishments. at a special event held in July 1999 to said fundamentalism is rife in Cairo's In conclusion, on behalf of the IDF, mark the publication of Islamic sprawling new and unplanned I wish to once more thank the Jaffee Fundamentalism: The Case of neighborhoods, where services are Center, its distinguished partners, and Egypt and Jordan, a new book by virtually nonexistent and overcrowding the participants for joining us for this Joffee Center researcher Nachman is the norm. week of important discussions on the Tal. In a rare address by the GSS chief, The audience was also addressed by Future of Military Doctrine. I am Ayalon warned that the Islamic Hebrew University professor Matti confident that the fruits and products Palestinian opposition believes it can Steinberg, a leading expert on Islam. of this conference will make a very exploit the divisions within Israeli Steinberg said the Arab intellectual elite significant contribution to the security society. He referred to statements by is more prepared than the leaderships establishments of both countries, the leader Ahmed Yassin that a of their countries to experiment with US and Israel. united Palestinian society can democracy. He added that Arab overcome the technological superiority regimes are scared that democracy will of Israel. quickly lead to Islamic rule. Ayalon criticized Israeli officials for The rise of the Islamic movement as paying little attention to terrorism and a political and social force is doubtlessly January 2000 7 the most important phenomenon to kingdom during the 1990s, even have developed in the Arab world in before they had the opportunity to recent years. In his book “Islamic exact a toll in human lives or cause Fundamentalism” Tal describes how massive destruction of property. Egypt and Jordan have been coping The Moslem Brotherhood operates with the wave of Islamic terrorism in legally in Jordan. However, familiarity Profile of a the 90s. with the tactical philosophy of stages In Egypt, Islamic fundamentalists set employed by the Brotherhood has their main goals as harming heads of enabled the Jordanian leadership to Researcher government, foreign tourists, and the limit the organization’s activities within Coptic minority. They caused great a framework of “red lines.” The Shlomo Brom losses of life and damage to Moslem Brotherhood is generally property,and occasional disruptions of careful not to cross these lines. the smooth conduct of daily life in the Tal depicts the situation in both Egypt country. and Jordan as a vicious circle, which Regarding the non-violent segment can be broken, only if the Islamic of the Islamic movement - the Moslem radicals decide to make an abrupt Brotherhood - Tal points out that it about-face and adopt the rules of has deep roots in Egyptian society, democracy. with its identity rooted primarily in He explains that Egyptian and- Islam and the Koran. The Jordanian authorities will not be able Brotherhood operates a wide-ranging to eliminate the phenomenon of Islamic system of education, along with extremism in the foreseeable future. welfare services for the weak sectors They will have to live with it, and of Egyptian society. He describes the continue fighting against it for a long struggle by the Egyptian authorities time to come. Brig. Gen. (res.) Shlomo Brom joined against Islamic terror as similar to war, the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies with the regime employing a strategy as a senior research associate in of “comprehensive confrontation” November 1998 after a long career against the Moslem Brotherhood. in the IDF. His last post in the armed The challenge of fundamentalism in forces was as Chief of the Strategic Jordan is less complex than in Egypt. Planning Division in the Planning Tal describes how the Hashemite Branch of the General Staff. Before regime has succeeded in uncovering that, he was the Deputy Chief of the and purging the attempts by Strategic Planning Division for three fundamentalists at organized Islamic years. During his six years in these terrorism in Jordan, evidenced in the posts Brig. Gen. Brom participated actively in the peace negotiations with the Palestinians, Jordan, and Syria. He also took part in the re- examination of Israel’s defense policies and handled the strategic relations of the IDF with the US armed forces and other militaries. Previously, Brig. Gen. Brom served in different positions in Air Force Intelligence, until he reached the position of the Deputy Chief of the Air Force Intelligence for Research and Production. He was also the Israeli Defense attaché in the Republic of South Africa, and a member of the Strategic Group in the Prime Minister’s office.

Nachman Tal addresses the audience on the rise of Islamic Fundamentalism. 8 JCSS Bulletin

Israeli Public Opinion on National Security The annual Survey of 1999

A new study by Prof. Asher Arian on Were the Palestine Authority to prevent Iran and Iraq from developing Israeli public opinion on national unilaterally declare the establishment such weapons. security was published recently. This of a Palestinian state, the reaction of The sense of a weakening of the army study is based on a survey conducted the Israeli public would not be extreme. was again observed. The size of the in the beginning of 1999 and More respondents than in the past group willing to pay more taxes for comprised of representative samples were willing to discuss various issues security was at an all-time low. Very of Israeli population. with the Palestinians, and to return large majorities rejected the idea of a Arian states in his study that a large certain territories. Opinions had not volunteer army or the exemption from majority of the respondents reported changed about Jerusalem, however. A army service by university or yeshiva enhanced feelings of personal security small majority favored unilateral students. since the beginning of the peace withdrawal from , higher than The overall pattern of credibility for process. Two-thirds thought most recorded in the past. Faith in the the political leadership has been in a Palestinians want peace. Only 19 effectiveness of air strikes against downward direction. There has been percent, the lowest score reported in targets in Lebanon rose; hope for a 23-percentage point drop since the these surveys, thought all Palestinians seeking a political solution to the question was first asked in the 1986 have a negative orientation toward conflict in south Lebanon remained the survey. Israel. The percentage of those saying same. There was no parallelsoftening that Arabs aspired to destroy Israel and of position regarding Syria or the kill Jews was at an all-time low. return of the Golan Heights. Two-thirds thought that the signing of Nonetheless, 54 percent thought that peace agreements with appropriate the heights would be returned within security arrangements would bring an 10 years end to the Arab-Israel conflict. The relationship between perceived Willingness to return land for peace threat and support for a Palestinian remained high; only one in five state remained constant. The threat supported the notion of ceasing the was down; support for a state, up. The peace talks even if that resulted in war. development of non-conventional Support for a Palestinian state reached weapons by Iran and Iraq was an unprecedented 57 percent. More perceived as very threatening. Fifty- than three-quarters thought there eight percent supported the immediate would be such a state in 10 years use of the to Defending Defense Economics

Two leading defense economists were advantages of such assistance, there existence as an independent state. The the speakers this year at the annual are also some clear disadvantages. In change here has been not in event held in memory of the late Col. this regard, thought should be devoted importance, but rather in content. Simon Syrkin, in March 1999. The to Israel’s position on US assistance. While in the past it was directed to two speakers were Imri Tov, economic Lifshitz discussed the three types of helping Israel deal with the arms race advisor to the Defense Ministry, who US assistance and described the in the Middle East, today it is more in spoke on the defense sector as an changes that have occurred: the form of a means to ensure the economic organization, and Yaacov Military assistance: The US allows maintenance of political arrangements. Lifshitz, chairman of the board of Israel to procure the most advanced Economic assistance as a means of Israel Military Industries (IMI), who weapons systems. This aspect of financing. The amount provided has spoke on the future of US military assistance has diminished in diminished in real terms; while the assistance to Israel. Lifschitz provided importance. amount remains $1.8 billion, there is an overview of the different types of Political assistance: This type of an annual increase of about 10% in assistance provided to Israel by the US, assistance was proof of the support the cost of weapons systems. and pointed out that alongside the and commitment of the US to Israel’s Lifschitz explained that US economic January 2000 9 National Security Concept Revisited: 'Dado' Seminar caps 20 years of defense Conferences

MK Dan Meridor was this year’s speaker at the annual threats, which now includes Iran and Iraq. At the same gathering held in memory of Lt. Gen. David Elazar (Dado), time, the level of existential threats to Israel has decreased. which focused on the Israeli national security concept. Mr. Meridor said the new circumstances require a During his career, Mr. Meridor (former Cabinet Secretary, comprehensive view of Israel’s strength that includes such Minister of Justice and Finance Minister) dealt extensively elements as economy, demography and education. Israel’s with security and defense issues. Currently serving as superiority in some of these areas offsets its numerical Chairman of the Knesset Committee on Foreign and disadvantage. Defense Affairs, at the time of the seminar MK Meridor The 1999 annual conference held in memory of Lt. was a member of the Defense Ministry’s advisory Gen. David Elazar (Dado) was the concluding event for committee for the reassessment of Israel’s defense this series of annual conferences conducted by the JCSS. doctrine. The conference was jointly held with the public association In his lecture, Mr. Meridor argued that the Israeli defense for the commemoration of David Elazar. The series of community has not managed to adapt traditional national conferences held annually over the past 20 years, hosted security conceptions to the changing strategic leading defense and military figures and served as a unique circumstances. The current forum to discuss various security doctrine was shaped aspects of Israeli during the 1950s and, Mr. strategy. Some of the Meridor maintained that the lectures in this series Arab-Israeli peace process is foretold public debate. an indication of the success For this concluding of this doctrine. But, Israel event, the JCSS has must reevaluate its doctrine edited an index with full amid the new strategic abstracts (in Hebrew) of environment. The most all 20 volumes of significant change is the lectures delivered in the expansion of the circle of framework of this series.

assistance has created certain comprehensive view that This, when the ultimate goal is political, distortions in defense expenditures; decisionmakers can integrate in order rather than strictly military or defense For example, the cost of weapons to provide a direction for their policy. oriented. systems procured with this assistance was not taken into account, and this There are four areas that can impact Tov believes that, in the coming ultimately led to inflated defense the defense sector: the strategic decade, several areas must be procurements. environment; military-defense renovated the role of the defense thinking; the economic environment; system as well as the division of labor; Imri Tov’s perspective on defense and the social environment. reexamination of the security issues is economic: He believes that Addressing changes in these areas can perception, and revolution in military all such issues can be analyzed and have the advantage of creating a thinking; making defense production explained in economic terms. The situation whereby instead of the system more cost-effective; and, finally, economic perspective must be joined operating on the tactical level only, directing efforts to maintain a long- with the legal, military, and historical activity will be directed to achieving term economic-defense infrastructure. perspectives in order to foster a goals at the system and strategic levels. 10 JCSS Bulletin

The State of the Nation - 1999

maintain its uniqueness while consensus building. challenging the dominant identity, and The third session focused on the some Sephardic communities that also security dimension. Mr. Carmi Gilon, strive to maintain their uniqueness as former head of GSS, assessed the

Annual Conference a separate group in society. An security situation between Israel and additional sector is that of Israeli the Palestinians, on the basis of lessons Arabs who are going through a learned in the five years since the Oslo process of cultural agreement. The greatest achievement, “Israelization,” in opposition to he said, is the consensus that there is the “Palestinization” of their no way to resolve the problem between collective identity. Israel and the Palestinians other than Col. (res.) Dr. Reuven Gal pursuing a political settlement. Such a The annual State director of the Carmel settlement will ultimately enhance of the Nation” Institute, dealt with the Israel’s security. conference held on changes that have taken place in Prof. Shai Feldman, (Head of JCSS, February 1999 in the level of motivation for serving in dealt with the peace process and memory of Maj. Gen. the IDF. He presented different types Israel’s security conception, defined as Aharon “Arale” Yariv, opened this year of motivation for serving in the army, principles for mobilizing resources and with the introduction of the new book and drew a correlation between these the use of these sources of strength to Cautious Assessment, a collection different types and different periods in fulfill national goals. He presented the of articles written by Aharon Yariv, the Israel’s history. Motivation to serve in basic insights relevant to the head of JCSS for 16 years until 1993. the first years drew on a combination development of a security conception. This book contains 15 articles on a of survival and ideology. In later years, First, such a conception must be based variety of strategic issues. Copies were the source of motivation was on a definition of political goals; presented to his widow, Nechama normative, and since the Intifada, it has second, a security conception must be Yariv, and to his son, Safi. become based on individualistic continually updated due to changes in The opening session of the factors. reality, resources and goals. conference focused on economic Dr. Yehuda Ben-Meir formerly Deputy Maj. Gen. Amos Malka, director of issues. Prof. Avishai Braverman, Foreign Minister, focused on “national IDF Military Intelligence, analyzed president of Ben-Gurion University, strength” as a component in decision Israel’s strategic environment. He listed assessed the economic challenges making. He explored the extent to the factors that significantly influence Israel faces on the verge of the 21st which decisions on security and foreign our arena, and then discussed the century. He emphasized the affairs are influenced by factors on the different circles of influence in this importance for Israel in global domestic front. He examined different arena: the close circle of Syria, economic trends; for this, Israel must aspects of national strength such as Lebanon and Jordan; the internal be strong internally. Israel must deal circle of the Palestinians whose with demographic weaknesses, influence will grow stronger; and defective urban planning, and the distant circle of Iran and Iraq. problems of “brain drain.” Prof. Ezra Gen. Malka also discussed Sadan,former Director General, regional issues: stability of regimes, Ministry of Treasury, addressed Israeli terror as a growing strategic factor; and Palestinian economies. NBC capabilities and surface to Prof. Eli Ben-Raphael of Tel Aviv surface missiles; and the inter-Arab University opened the second session arena. with a broad overview of both unifying The closing lecture was delivered and fragmenting factors at work in by Lt. Gen. Shaul Mofaz, IDF chif Israeli society. He emphasized that the of staff who presented his views model of collective identity that Maj. Gen. Amos Malka, director of the on the IDF in the year 2000, developed in the early years of the state IDF’s Military Intelligence addresses the which, to his mind, will be a different is now facing challenges from a conference. Seated (r. to l.) Dr. Ephraim force. The IDF’s primary goal is the number of directions. He cited the Kam, Mr. Carmi Gilon, and Prof. Shai achievement of victory, working within ultra-Orthodox sector, which tries to Feldman. the framework of limited resources. January 2000 11

SPECIAL STUDY Israel and South Lebanon: The Withdrawal at the End of the Tunnel?

Unless Israel signs a peace treaty with engaging in a dialogue with the Shi'ite Syria, Israel's options in south Lebanon organization. Such a dialogue will are limited to maintaining its troop produce results if the participants deployment or withdrawing understand that Israel does not intend unilaterally, says a new report by the to reach a partial accord with Lebanon Jaffee Center's Brig. Gen. (res.) and is prepared to stage a unilateral Shlomo Brom, former head of and unconditional withdrawal from the strategic planning in the Israel Defense south. Israel should explain to these Forces Planning Branch. parties that its only objective in the main Shi’ite factions decide to refrain In his report, entitled "Israel and dialogue is to know how they will from any military activity, Palestinian South Lebanon: In the Absence of a respond to an IDF withdrawal. groups might initiate attacks. Some Peace Treaty with Syria," Brom says Anything more ambitious will torpedo Shi’ite guerrillas might break away most of Israel’s options in south the effort. from their organizations and continue Lebanon will not achieve the country’s If such a limited dialogue fails then their campaign against Israel. basic goal, with some of the measures the risks of unilateral withdrawal are To preserve its deterrence, Israel must dependent on Lebanese and Syrian too great. A successful dialogue can warn of harsh responses to any attack, cooperation. This includes any Israeli allow the political leadership to endorse but in practice Israel should maintain withdrawal in the framework of a a unilateral withdrawal. restraint until it becomes clear that partial settlement with Lebanon. Hizbullah and the Lebanese Therefore, until a peace treaty is Brom says that Prime Minister Barak government fail to maintain security signed with Syria, the options are might decide on a unilateral withdrawal in south Lebanon. Moreover, Israel limited to either the status quo or by July 2000 if efforts to engage Syria must closely monitor the region for any unilateral withdrawal. The advantage fail. In this case, the author change in policy by Hizbullah, of the status quo, Brom says, is that it recommends a one-stage withdrawal. Lebanon or Syria. An important signal maintains security for residents of A phased withdrawal would only invite is whether the Lebanese army is northern Israel, the main purpose of failure. allowed to deploy in the south after IDF deployment in south Lebanon. Following a withdrawal, Brom says, Israeli withdrawal. This will also reflect The disadvantage is the absence of any Israel will have to maintain a cautious Syrian intentions. chance of dramatically reducing policy toward Lebanon. Even if the casualties, which impacts heavily on national morale. At the same time, this option contains some potential of Guests from China at JCSS: escalation. discussing arms control Brom says the advantage of unilateral withdrawal is that it contains hope for In December 28, 1998 the a solution. The hope is based on JCSS hosted Sha Zukang, optimistic assessments regarding Director General of the Hizbullah, Syria, and Iran. The disadvantage is in the option’s risks. If Department of Arms Control these parties plan to continue their and Disarmament in China’s military campaign against Israel even Ministry for Foreign Affairs. after an IDF withdrawal, the threat Discussions with members of the against northern Israeli communities JCSS staff focused on the global will become intolerable. arms control agenda and Israel’s The Jaffee Center report urges the position regarding various government to determine Hizbullah's nonproliferation treaties. intentions after an IDF withdrawal by 12 JCSS Bulletin

Towards a Regional Ssecurity Regime for Bridging Cultural Gaps - the Middle East The Strategic Perspective

On March 23, 1999, JCSS hosted Dr. The Jaffee Center organized a panel Middle East. He asserted that Arab and Peter Jones from the Stockholm entitled “Security Dialogue in the Israeli political leaders are absorbing a International Peace Research Institute Middle East: Cultural and common global culture bound to (SIPRI) for a seminar dealing with his Communicational Influences” in the facilitate negotiations. The danger, report “Towards a Regional Security framework of a four-day International however, is that the gap between the Regime for the Middle East: Issues and Conference on Pragmatics and political elite and the masses will grow, Options.” The purpose of the seminar Negotiation held by the Faculty of making it difficult to create a broad held at JCSS (as well as similar Humanities at Tel Aviv University on constituency for peace. meetings held in Iran, Jordan, and June 13, 1999. Emily Landau, Professor Raymond Cohen of the Egypt) was to introduce the ideas raised Research Associate at the Jaffee Hebrew University focused on cultural in the report to a wider audience of Center, coordinated the panel. and linguistic factors that have affected regional arms control experts. Dr. General Mohammad Shmaisani, Arab-Israeli negotiations on security Jones’s initial talk dealing with the senior researcher at the Department issues. Adding to the inherent difficulty contents of the report was followed by for Disarmament and Security Studies, of negotiating security issues is the a presentation by Dr. Ariel Levite who Amman, addressed cultural aspects of failure of the parties to agree on the provided his experience as a security negotiations by providing a meaning of such core concepts as participant in the meetings. Iran’s personal perspective on Jordanian- “land,” “security,” “normalization,” interest in regional security Israeli peace negotiations. This was and “peace.” These differences are arrangements was one of the focal based on his involvement in the peace exacerbated by the differing ways the points of discussion. talks, in which he served as head of parties negotiate, he said. the aviation committee and participated in meetings on security Emily Landau devoted her matters. General Shmaisani presentation to the Middle East arms emphasized cultural differences that led control and regional security dialogue to misunderstandings, and the over the past decade. Focusing on the importance of dialogue for breaking cooperative framework of seminar cultural barriers. In this respect, he diplomacy, which stresses learning said, the personal relationship between over bargaining, she assessed the King Hussein and was implications of multilateral extremely important. communication, especially in terms of Professor Gabriel Ben-Dor of its ability to create mutual Emily Landau (JCSS) introduces University discussed cultural factors in understandings that differ from Dr. Peter Jones the regional strategic dialogue in the preconceived interests.

BULLETIN

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